India - Oil & Gas: Major Reforms Push, Oil Psus Key Beneficiaries

I ndi a - Oi l & Gas
Bhaskar Chakraborty | bhaskar@iiflcap.com

91 22 4646 4670

Mohit Agrawal | mohit.agrawal@iiflcap.com
91 22 4646 4675

Harshvardhan Dole | harsh.dole@iiflcap.com
91 22 4646 4660

DD MMM YYYY
Major reforms push, Oil PSUs key beneficiaries
20 October 2014
Industry Update
Institutional Equities
We believe Oil PSUs will be the key beneficiaries of the much-
awaited announcement of reforms for diesel deregulation, gas
price increase, and the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) scheme for
LPG subsidy. The decision on diesel deregulation and DBT in LPG
surprised positively. However, the gas pricing policy was in line
with expectations for Oil PSUs but negative for RIL. Clarity on
subsidy sharing is the next anticipated reform necessary to
provide visibility to earnings of Oil PSUs. For CGD companies, we
do not see any earnings impact as we expect companies to
increase end prices and maintain margins. For the power sector
increase in gas cost (generation cost to increase by 25-30%)
would only further depress the PLFs unless government
intervene (through gas price pooling, differential pricing, etc).
We upgrade our target price of ONGC to Rs520/share and BPCL
to Rs1,000/share, and reiterate them as our top picks among Oil
PSUs. Among CGD companies, we re-iterate BUY on IGL and
Gujarat Gas.

Government of India (GoI) initiated three reforms 1) it
deregulated diesel prices with immediate effect, reducing the price by
Rs3.6/litre (current over-recovery). From here on, prices will be market
linked for all consumers; 2) it approved the domestic gas pricing policy
by modifying the Rangarajan formula, effectively increasing the APM and
NELP price from US$4.2 to US$6.2/mmbtu. 3) It laid down the framework
for reducing LPG subsidy and modified the DBT scheme to be
implemented all over India by 4QFY15.

Diesel deregulation announcement a positive surprise; clarity on
subsidy sharing to provide earnings visibility: The deregulation
announcement was earlier than our expectation and is a much-awaited
forward step. In addition to deregulation, with declining oil prices, we
expect under-recoveries in FY15/16 could fall to Rs840/Rs650bn, a YoY
decline of 40% and 23% respectively. As a next step, any clarity on
subsidy sharing among upstream, downstream and GoI would provide
the visibility to the earnings of the respective companies.
Gas price increase in line with expectations for Oil PSUs but
negative for RIL: GoI revised the Rangarajan formula announced in
2013 by excluding the Japanese and Indian LNG imports. The new formula
is a weighted average of prices in the US, Canada, EU and Russia,
resulting in a gas price of US$6.2/mmbtu, lower compared with US$8.4-
9/mmbtu suggested by the Ranagarajan formula. The new formula is
applicable from 1
st
Nov 2014, and will be revised every six months. The
price is applicable across most of ONGCs and OIL Indias gas production
and is in line with our expectations.

Framework laid down for reduction of LPG subsidy: GoI announced
the modified DBT scheme for LPG subsidy to be rolled out all over India by
4QFY15. The scheme aims to implement LPG subsidy payments via bank
accounts by 1QFY16 and it has done away with need of an Aadhar-linked
bank account. Industry sources suggest this itself would eliminate a huge
chunk of subsidy led by mis-directed use (into commercial) and
duplicate/bogus connections. We expect reduction of Rs100bn in FY16
under-recovery estimates on implementation of DBT in LPG.

Gas pricing policy puts RILs upstream plans in cloud, more clarity
awaited: While the gas price hike has been made applicable to all NELP
fields, the cabinet has made an exception for D1-D3 fields where a pricing
arbitration is underway. D1-D3 fields, which are currently producing 7
mmscmd, will continue to receive a price of US$4.2/mmbtu until the
arbitration is completed. The differential in prices will be deposited in an
gas pool account managed by GAIL, pending the result of the arbitration.
RILs MA fields (5 mmscmd) will receive the new gas price.

Figure1: Summaryofchangesintargetpriceandearnings
Rating Targetpriceimpact Earningsimpact
New Old FY15ii(%) FY16ii(%)
ONGC BUY 520 480 6.1% 2.6%
BPCL BUY 1000 760 8.8% 17.6%
RIL BUY 1,270 1,320 1.2% 2.2%
OIL BUY 800 600 8.0% 7.7%
IOCL BUY 430 375 7.4% 15.9%
GAIL REDUCE 440 400 4.7% 12.7%
HPCL REDUCE 500 400 25.8% 46.6%

bhaskar@i i fl cap.com
India - Oil & Gas
2
Impact on CGD companies: Given the increase in domestic APM gas
prices, IGL and Gujarat Gas would have to increase CNG and domestic
PNG prices by 5-12% to pass on the impact of higher gas cost to maintain
their margins. We do not see any impact on their earnings as we expect
companies to take appropriate price increase as done in the past. In 2010,
when domestic APM gas price doubled, CGD companies had increased
prices and protected margins. This time too, they are likely to pass on the
increase in gas cost.

Details on Gas pricing

Gas price increase in line with expectations for Oil PSUs but
negative for RIL: The government has revised the Rangarajan formula
announced in 2013 by excluding the Japanese and Indian LNG imports
and including prices for Canada and Russia. Thus, the new formula is a
weighted average of prices in the US, Canada, EU, and Russia and
results in gas price of US$6.2/mmbtu, lower compared with US$8.4-
9/mmbtu suggested by Ranagarajan formula. The new formula links
domestic price to weighted average of four markets, three of which are
net exporters (Russia, Canada and soon the US) and have lower-priced
gas in their domestic markets.

The new price will be applicable from Nov 1st and it will be revised
every six months. The price and volume data used for calculation price
will be the trailing four-quarter data with lag of a quarter. The price will
come into effect from 1st November 2014 and will remain until 31st
March 2015 (six months). It would be determined based on prices
prevailing between 1st July 2013 and 30th June 2014. The prices would
be announced 15 days in advance of the half year for which it is
applicable

The GCV/NCV conundrum: Globally trading hubs (such as Henry Hub,
Europe NBP) price the gas based on Gross Calorific Value (GCV)
whereas in India, pricing has been based on Net Calorific Value (NCV).
The difference between the two is 10%: NCV price is ~10% higher vis-
-vis GCV price. The Rangarajan Committee report on natural gas
pricing set up last year was silent on the entire GCV/NCV issue.
However, in the press release issued on Saturday, GoI clarified that
pricing published from here on will be a GCV price. Assuming
US$5.61/mmtu GCV price, effective billing price for producers would
come to US$6.2/mmbtu (the NCV price).

New formula a departure from methodology adopted by other
regional gas importing countries: Domestic price in gas importing
countries in Asia is increasingly being indexed to Oil prices. We analysed
the gas markets in key importing nations in Asia China and Thailand.
We found that domestic gas pricing is moving away from traditional cost
and pricing to Oil indexed pricing (or fuel oil linkage). The transition to
oil indexed prices is happening in a gradual manner to mitigate the
shock of large increases. As opposed to this, India has opted to adopt a
pricing skewed towards the ones in gas exporting countries.

Earnings and valuation impact on companies

ONGC (TP Rs520, BUY): Gas price increase in line with
estimates, benefit of lower oil prices and LPG DBT benefit to
accrue.

Impact of gas price increase: Each US$1/mmbtu increase in
gas price impacts ONGCs earnings by Rs3/share (~10%). We
had already assumed a gas price of US$6.2/mmbtu in our estimates
from Nov 1 2014, resulting in no change to our estimates.

Diesel deregulation impact: In addition to deregulation, given
declining oil prices, we expect under-recoveries in FY15 and FY16 to
fall to Rs840/Rs650bn, a YoY decline of 40% and 23% respectively.
This is assuming oil prices of US$95/bbl in 2HFY15 and FY16 and
exchange rate of 60. With no clarity on subsidy sharing, we assume
net realisation to go to US$49/bbl / US$62/bbl in FY15/FY16 (FY14
at US$40/bbl).

A decline in gross realisation across the nomination blocks of
Cairn, OVL, and other JVs will partially offset the reduction in
under-recoveries. This results in 2.6% upgrade in our FY16ii
earnings estimate. We upgrade our target price for ONGC
from Rs480 to Rs520/share (12x 1 year forward EPS).

India - Oil & Gas
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Figure2: ONGCsearningstobepositivelyimpactedby2.66%
ONGC FY15ii FY16ii
New 35.6 42.9
Old 33.5 41.8
%Increase 6.1% 2.6%
Source:Company,IIFLResearch

OIL India (TP Rs800, BUY): Higher benefit than ONGC

Impact of gas price increase: Each US$1/mmbtu increase in
gas price impacts OILs earnings by Rs2/share (~5%). We
had already assumed a gas price of US$6.2/mmbtu in our estimates
from Nov 1 2014, resulting in no change to our estimates.

Diesel deregulation impact: In addition to deregulation, with the
declining oil prices, we expect under-recoveries in FY15/16 to fall to
Rs840/Rs650bn, a YoY decline of 40% and 23% respectively. This is
assuming oil prices of US$95/bbl in 2HFY15 and FY16, and an
exchange rate of 60. With no clarity on subsidy sharing, we assume
net realisation to go to US$58/bbl and US$68/bbl in FY15/16
respectively (FY14 at US$50/bbl).

The decline in under-recoveries is partially offset by a decline
in gross realisation across the nomination blocks, resulting in
8% upgrade to FY16ii earnings. We upgrade our target price
for OIL from Rs600 to Rs800/share (12x 1 year forward
EPS).

Figure3: OILsearningstobepositivelyimpactedby8%
OilIndiaEPS FY15ii FY16ii
New 55.4 66.3
Old 51.3 61.6
%Increase 8.0% 7.7%

GAIL (TP Rs400, REDUCE): Benefits of subsidy elimination could
outweigh price increase

For GAIL, gas is an input cost and we had assumed that GAIL would
continue to receive APM gas at US$4.2/mmbtu, in lieu of bearing
subsidy (Rs19bn in FY14).

GAIL has long been asking for APM gas to be removed from the
subsidy net, in which case it will bear LNG prices (US$12-
13/mmbtu). We believe if GAIL were to bear no subsidy and
take LNG priced gas for cracking LPG, its consolidated EPS
would see a 5%/12.7% upside in FY15/16ii.

Figure4: GAILsEPSwouldbeimpacted512%positivelyifitweretocomeoutof
subsidynet
FY15ii FY16ii
New 36 42.7
Old 34.4 37.9
%Increase 4.7% 12.7%

BPCL (TP Rs1,000, BUY): Diesel margins expansion, lower
working capital to drive earnings growth

Our interaction with BPCL management suggests that following the
deregulation, marketing margins of diesel could increase up to
50p/litre, which could add 11% (Rs11.8bn) to FY16ii Ebitda.
This is in line with the improvement seen in petrol margins after
deregulation, which contributed 3% (Rs2.7bn) to FY14 Ebitda.

In the long run, however, private competition could come in;
however, management sounded better prepared, unlike in 2002.

Declining oil prices and under-recoveries would lead to further
reduction in working capital and lower interest costs. We expect
FY15/16 EPS to increase 8.8%/17.6%.

India - Oil & Gas
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RIL (TP Rs1,320, BUY): Gas pricing policy a dampener,
however risk reward remains favourable

The cabinet has made an exception for D1-D3 fields where a pricing
arbitration is underway. The D1-D3 fields, which are producing 7
mmscmd, will continue to receive a price of US$4.2/mmbtu until the
arbitration is completed. RILs MA fields (producing 5 mmscmd) will
receive the new gas price.

On the new discoveries that RIL is developing (R-Cluster, Satellite
fields, MJ-1), GoI is planning to provide a premium over and above the
existing gas price (of US$6.2/mmbtu) to all the discoveries from here
on. It remains unclear whether RILs discoveries would be eligible for
the premium and if so, is the premium remunerative enough for RIL to
develop them.

We had assumed an increase in gas price on the entire KG D6
production effective Nov 1
st
2014. However, in the event of with D1-
D3 not getting the higher gas price there will be a negative
impact on our FY15/16 EPS estimate by 1.2%/2.2%. Further,
if RIL does not get a remunerative gas price and decides not to
develop these fields, our SOTP value would fall by Rs80/share, from
Rs1,320 to 1,240/share.

On the positive side, with diesel being deregulated, RIL could enter
into fuel retailing. The material upside could accrue by FY17-18
when the company could retail 12mmt of diesel annually in the
domestic market after complete deregulation of the fuel. This will
accrete $400-500m (5%) per annum to its Ebitda.

We believe new capacities coming up in refining and petrochemicals
will almost double its EPS over FY14-18ii. This will help ROE recover
to 14% from 11.8% currently. RIL is trading at its 10-year average
one-year forward P/B, indicating that the strong revival in its
earnings and ROE are not factored into the current price.

Impact on CGD Companies

IGL (BUY): 11-12% increase in CNG prices required to maintain
margins, see low risk to IGLs earnings:
CNG is estimated to account for 75% of the IGLs FY15 gas volumes.
APM gas accounts for 75-80% of the CNG volumes. A 50% increase
in domestic APM gas price from US$4.2/mmbtu to US$6.2/mmbtu
will require IGL to increase CNG prices by 11-12% (Rs4-4.5/kg) to
maintain its margins (CNG retail price in Delhi to increase from
Rs38/kg to Rs42-42.5/kg).

Similarly, domestic PNG (5% of total volumes) would require a 10-
12% increase in end-consumer prices for IGL to maintain its
margins.

The new prices would be effective from 1
st
November 2014. In the
meanwhile, GoI is also looking for a possible reduction in tax rates
on CNG sales to reduce the overall burden on end consumers. Any
partial or gradual price increase would affect IGLs margins and in
turn its profitability. A Re1/kg change in gross spread in the CNG
segment would affect IGLs FY16 EPS by 12-13%.

We note, in FY10 when wellhead price of APM gas was doubled to
US$4.2/mmbtu, IGLs input price increased ~55%. To offset this,
IGL increased CNG prices by 26% within two weeks and maintained
its profitability. This time too, we expect IGL to pass on the higher
input cost (based on past precedents) and maintain its margins.

Note that, even at revised CNG and liquid fuel (petrol and diesel)
prices, CNG offers a ~55% saving vs. petrol and 35% saving vs.
diesel in running cost per km.

India - Oil & Gas
5
Figure5: Historically,IGLhasalwayspassedongascostsandmaintaineditsmargins


Figure6: CNGstilloffershugesavingsvs.liquidfuels

Source:Industry,IIFLResearch

Gujarat Gas (BUY) 5-6% hike in CNG prices required low risk
to margins:
As against IGL, for Gujarat Gas (GGAS), CNG comprises just 18% of
volumes and 6-7% consists of domestic PNG. Thus, on overall
company basis, GGAS would have limited impact of APM gas price
increase since APM gas accounts for only ~20% of total gas basket.
The balance requirement is met through other domestic sources
such as PMT + Cairn (for which prices have not been changed) and
R-LNG.

Assuming 80% of the APM gas is consumed in GGAS CNG operations
(~18% of the volumes or 0.4mmscmd), the price increase required
in CNG would be ~5% to neutralize the impact of higher gas cost.

Impact on Power companies:

Power cost to increase 25-30% to Rs5/unit:
India has a total installed gas-based generation capacity of 22.5GW
(10% of all India installed capacity ex-renewable energy). The PLF
of the gas-based stations declined 4500bps to 22% over FY11-
1HFY15 (see figure 7) due to: 1) lower domestic gas availability;
and 2) lower off-take from SEBs of expensive power based on R-
LNG.

A 50% increase in APM gas price is estimated to increase the cost of
generation by 25-30% from Rs3.9/unit to Rs4.8-5/unit. This would
further lower offtake from SEBs and impact plant utilization (PLF).

Further, at the new APM price, the variable cost of generation is
Rs3.1/unit (see figure 6). On back-calculating, the coal equivalent
cost works out to be US$93/MT (low GCV imported coal) this is 2x
of the prevailing market price of imported coal.

22GW of operational project and 5GW of under-construction
project at risk:
Given the weak financial health of SEBs, we see low demand for
such expensive power, placing 22GW of operational and 5GW of
under-construction capacity at risk of being stranded.
Most of the operational capacity operates on vanilla ROE basis,
which allows utilities to recover fixed costs based on plant
availability (irrespective of the actual generation). However, going
forward, we see: 1) SEBs challenging such contracts in the relevant
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India - Oil & Gas
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regulatory commissions; and 2) generators facing challenges while
recovering cash from discoms.

Torrent Power, GVK Power, and Lanco Infras gas units are among
the worst affected operational IPPs and among under-construction
capacity R-Powers 2.4GW unit is at risk (see figure 8 for key project
on gas).

Limited options available to revive gas based projects:
Pooling of gas prices as proposed (only for part capacity of 10GW)
may no longer be effective given that difference between the cost of
generation on revised APM price and R-LNG price has narrowed. This
would also require a higher subsidy payment from by GoI than the
earlier envisaged one of Rs57bn. The Cabinet Committee of
Economic Affairs (CCEA) is likely to take a final call on the proposal.

In our view, to revive these gas-based projects, GoI may come up
with: 1) differential regulated return policy for peaking power
stations for gas based projects or/and; 2) an open access policy
allowing IPPs to sell power directly to end-consumers. In this regard,
the judgment by APERC to allow gas based projects to procure
imported gas and sell to industrial consumers holds significance and
looks the most acceptable way out to revive gas-based projects.

Figure7: Powercostwouldincreaseby2530%duetodoublingofdomesticgasprices
Fuel OldAPMGas NewDomesticAPMGas RLNG
Plantcapacity(MW) 1,000 1,000 1,000
Capitalcost(Rsm) 50,000 50,000 50,000
LandedpriceofGas(US$/mmbtu) 5.0 7.2 15.0
Gascosts(Rs/unit) 2.1 3.1 6.5
Annualfixedcosts(Rs/unit) 1.7 1.7 1.7
TotalCostofGeneration(Rs/unit) 3.9 4.8 8.2

Figure8: PLFofthegasbasedstationhasdeclinedby4500bpsoverFY111hFY15given
highercostofgenerationresultinginlowerofftakefromSEBs

Source:CEA,IIFLResearch

Figure9: Keygasbasedpowerprojects
Developer Plant State Capacity
(MW)
GMREnergy VemagiriCcpp AndhraPradesh 370
GMREnergy Kakinada AndhraPradesh 220
GMREnergy VemagiriPowerExpansion AndhraPradesh 768
GVKPower GautamiCcpp AndhraPradesh 464
GVKPower JegurupaduCcpp AndhraPradesh 455
LancoInfra KondapalliExtnCcpp. AndhraPradesh 366
LancoInfra KondapalliCcpp AndhraPradesh 350
LancoInfra KondapalliIII AndhraPradesh 742
NTPC Multipleprojects 4,100
ReliancePower Samalkot AndhraPradesh 2,400
TorrentPower SugenCcpp Gujarat 1,148
TorrentPower UnosugenCcpp Gujarat 383
TorrentPower DGEN Gujarat 1,200
Source:CEA,Company,IIFLResearch

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FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1HFY15
PLFforgasbasedstations

India - Oil & Gas
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Published in 2014, India Infoline Ltd 2014
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Price TP/Recochangeddate
(Rs)
BPCL:3yearpriceandratinghistory
Date Close price
(Rs)
Target price
(Rs)
Rating
18 Jan 2012 524 600 ADD
28 May 2012 731 770 ADD
20 Jun 2012 751 865 BUY
06 Sep 2012 345 420 BUY
29 Nov 2012 328 410 BUY
04 Feb 2013 421 540 BUY
12 Jun 2014 522 660 BUY
20 Jun 2014 564 760 BUY

India - Oil & Gas
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Date Close price
(Rs)
Target price
(Rs)
Rating
25 Oct 2011 426 421 REDUCE
07 Dec 2011 400 372 REDUCE
31 Jul 2012 356 370 REDUCE
15 Feb 2013 335 550 REDUCE
29 May 2013 327 320 REDUCE
27 May 2014 410 400 REDUCE

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
O
c
t
1
1
o
v
1
1
e
c
1
1
a
n
1
2
e
b
1
2
M
a
r
1
2
A
p
r
1
2
a
y
1
2
u
n
1
2
J
u
l
1
2
u
g
1
2
e
p
1
2
O
c
t
1
2
o
v
1
2
e
c
1
2
a
n
1
3
e
b
1
3
M
a
r
1
3
A
p
r
1
3
a
y
1
3
u
n
1
3
J
u
l
1
3
u
g
1
3
e
p
1
3
O
c
t
1
3
o
v
1
3
e
c
1
3
a
n
1
4
e
b
1
4
M
a
r
1
4
A
p
r
1
4
a
y
1
4
u
n
1
4
J
u
l
1
4
u
g
1
4
e
p
1
4
O
c
t
1
4
(Rs)
HPCL:3yearpriceandratinghistory
Date Close price
(Rs)
Target price
(Rs)
Rating
12 Jun 2014 401 400 REDUCE

0
100
200
300
400
500
O
c
t
1
1
o
v
1
1
e
c
1
1
a
n
1
2
e
b
1
2
M
a
r
1
2
A
p
r
1
2
a
y
1
2
u
n
1
2
J
u
l
1
2
u
g
1
2
e
p
1
2
O
c
t
1
2
o
v
1
2
e
c
1
2
a
n
1
3
e
b
1
3
M
a
r
1
3
A
p
r
1
3
a
y
1
3
u
n
1
3
J
u
l
1
3
u
g
1
3
e
p
1
3
O
c
t
1
3
o
v
1
3
e
c
1
3
a
n
1
4
e
b
1
4
M
a
r
1
4
A
p
r
1
4
a
y
1
4
u
n
1
4
J
u
l
1
4
u
g
1
4
e
p
1
4
O
c
t
1
4
(Rs)
IndianOilCorporationLtd:3yearpriceandratinghistory
Date Close price
(Rs)
Target price
(Rs)
Rating
15 Jan 2014 206 300 BUY
12 Jun 2014 360 374 BUY
27 Jun 2014 328 375 BUY

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
O
c
t
1
1
N
o
v
1
1
D
e
c
1
1
J
a
n
1
2
F
e
b
1
2
M
a
r
1
2
A
p
r
1
2
M
a
y
1
2
J
u
n
1
2
J
u
l
1
2
A
u
g
1
2
S
e
p
1
2
O
c
t
1
2
N
o
v
1
2
D
e
c
1
2
J
a
n
1
3
F
e
b
1
3
M
a
r
1
3
A
p
r
1
3
M
a
y
1
3
J
u
n
1
3
J
u
l
1
3
A
u
g
1
3
S
e
p
1
3
O
c
t
1
3
N
o
v
1
3
D
e
c
1
3
J
a
n
1
4
F
e
b
1
4
M
a
r
1
4
A
p
r
1
4
M
a
y
1
4
J
u
n
1
4
J
u
l
1
4
A
u
g
1
4
S
e
p
1
4
O
c
t
1
4
(Rs)
GAILIndiaLtd:3yearpriceandratinghistory

India - Oil & Gas
9

0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
O
c
t
1
1
N
o
v
1
1
D
e
c
1
1
J
a
n
1
2
F
e
b
1
2
M
a
r
1
2
A
p
r
1
2
M
a
y
1
2
J
u
n
1
2
J
u
l
1
2
A
u
g
1
2
S
e
p
1
2
O
c
t
1
2
N
o
v
1
2
D
e
c
1
2
J
a
n
1
3
F
e
b
1
3
M
a
r
1
3
A
p
r
1
3
M
a
y
1
3
J
u
n
1
3
J
u
l
1
3
A
u
g
1
3
S
e
p
1
3
O
c
t
1
3
N
o
v
1
3
D
e
c
1
3
J
a
n
1
4
F
e
b
1
4
M
a
r
1
4
A
p
r
1
4
M
a
y
1
4
J
u
n
1
4
J
u
l
1
4
A
u
g
1
4
S
e
p
1
4
O
c
t
1
4
(Rs)
OilIndia:3yearpriceandratinghistory
Date Close price
(Rs)
Target price
(Rs)
Rating
15 Nov 2011 1290 1570 BUY
13 Feb 2012 1321 1300 ADD
29 May 2012 450 520 ADD
20 Dec 2012 457 560 BUY
13 Feb 2013 534 700 BUY
14 Aug 2013 475 560 BUY
28 May 2014 579 600 BUY

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
O
c
t
1
1
o
v
1
1
e
c
1
1
a
n
1
2
e
b
1
2
M
a
r
1
2
A
p
r
1
2
a
y
1
2
u
n
1
2
J
u
l
1
2
u
g
1
2
e
p
1
2
O
c
t
1
2
o
v
1
2
e
c
1
2
a
n
1
3
e
b
1
3
M
a
r
1
3
A
p
r
1
3
a
y
1
3
u
n
1
3
J
u
l
1
3
u
g
1
3
e
p
1
3
O
c
t
1
3
o
v
1
3
e
c
1
3
a
n
1
4
e
b
1
4
M
a
r
1
4
A
p
r
1
4
a
y
1
4
u
n
1
4
J
u
l
1
4
u
g
1
4
e
p
1
4
O
c
t
1
4
(Rs)
ONGC:3yearpriceandratinghistory
Date Close price
(Rs)
Target price
(Rs)
Rating
08 Nov 2011 277 330 BUY
09 Feb 2012 283 275 ADD
30 May 2012 256 290 ADD
27 Nov 2012 250 260 ADD
12 Feb 2013 308 380 BUY
13 Aug 2013 278 320 ADD
20 Mar 2014 314 400 BUY
30 May 2014 374 480 BUY

0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
O
c
t
1
1
o
v
1
1
e
c
1
1
a
n
1
2
e
b
1
2
M
a
r
1
2
A
p
r
1
2
a
y
1
2
u
n
1
2
J
u
l
1
2
u
g
1
2
e
p
1
2
O
c
t
1
2
o
v
1
2
e
c
1
2
a
n
1
3
e
b
1
3
M
a
r
1
3
A
p
r
1
3
a
y
1
3
u
n
1
3
J
u
l
1
3
u
g
1
3
e
p
1
3
O
c
t
1
3
o
v
1
3
e
c
1
3
a
n
1
4
e
b
1
4
M
a
r
1
4
A
p
r
1
4
a
y
1
4
u
n
1
4
J
u
l
1
4
u
g
1
4
e
p
1
4
O
c
t
1
4
(Rs)
RelianceIndustries:3yearpriceandratinghistory
Date Close price
(Rs)
Target price
(Rs)
Rating
17 Oct 2011 867 1000 BUY
03 Jan 2012 707 960 BUY
23 Jan 2012 793 760 REDUCE
24 Feb 2012 833 740 REDUCE
15 May 2012 681 730 REDUCE
22 Jun 2012 719 665 REDUCE
23 Jul 2012 723 680 REDUCE
16 Oct 2012 823 740 REDUCE
21 Jan 2013 900 805 REDUCE
15 May 2013 798 830 REDUCE
22 Jul 2013 924 840 REDUCE
21 Apr 2014 957 880 REDUCE
Date
Close price
(Rs)
Target price
(Rs)
Rating
21 Jul 2014 977 1200 BUY
01 Sep 2014 999 1320 BUY

India - Oil & Gas: Major Reforms Push, Oil Psus Key Beneficiaries

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India - Oil & Gas: Major Reforms Push, Oil Psus Key Beneficiaries

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I ndi a - Oi l & Gas

Bhaskar Chakraborty | bhaskar@iiflcap.com

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