Stochastic Performance Assessment and Sizing for a

Hybrid Power System of Solar/Wind/Energy Storage

Amirsaman Arabali, Student Member, IEEE, Mahmoud Ghofrani, Member, IEEE,
Mehdi Etezadi-Amoli, Life Senior Member, IEEE, and Mohammed Sami Fadali, Senior Member, IEEE
AbstractThis paper proposes a stochastic framework for
optimal sizing and reliability analysis of a hybrid power system
including the renewable resources and energy storage system.
Uncertainties of wind power, photovoltaic (PV) power, and load
are stochastically modeled using autoregressive moving average
(ARMA). A pattern search-based optimization method is used in
conjunction with a sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS) to
minimize the system cost and satisfy the reliability requirements.
The SMCS simulates the chronological behavior of the system and
calculates the reliability indices from a series of simulated experi-
ments. Load shifting strategies are proposed to provide some
exibility and reduce the mismatch between the renewable genera-
tion and heating ventilation and air conditioning loads in a hybrid
power system. Different percentages of load shifting and their
potential impacts on the hybrid power system reliability/cost anal-
ysis are evaluated. Using a compromise-solution method, the best
compromise between the reliability and cost is realized for the
hybrid power system.
Index TermsLoad shifting strategy, sequential Monte Carlo
simulation (SMCS), stochastic modeling.
NOMENCLATURE
, Order of the autoregressive moving average
(ARMA) model.
Area for the photovoltaic (PV) array.
th decision criterion.
Capital cost of energy/power for storage system.
Cost of hybrid power system.
Self-discharge rate for the energy storage.
EE Expected energy demand.
ENS Energy not supplied.
EENS Expected energy not supplied.
EIR Energy index of reliability.
PDF for the th simulated random variable.
Net power generated by PV.
Net power generated by wind.
Electric power generated by PV for time .
Electric power generated by wind for time .
Rated wind power.
Power generated by PV.
Power generated by wind.
Extra-terrestrial radiation on a horizontal surface.
Installation cost for PV/wind.
Load/modied load at time .
Interrupted/shifted load at time .
Cost of operation and maintenance for PV.
Cost of operation and maintenance for wind.
Parameter in the functional form for the .
Power rating for the energy storage.
Power of the energy storage at time .
Parameter in the functional form for the .
Ratio, diffuse radiation in hour/diffuse in day.
Geometric factor, the ratio of beam radiation on
the tilted surface to that on a horizontal surface.
Storage system capacity.
SW, Sk, SL Simulated wind speed, clearness index, load.
Stored energy at time .
Wind speed.
, and Cut-in, cut-out, and rated wind speed.
Sample for the th simulation and th scheduling
period.
th stochastic input variable.
PV/wind capacity installation.
Percentage of load shifting.
Powerelectronic interface efciency for PV/wind
generation.
Storage system round-trip efciency.
PV array efciency.
Moving average/autoregressive coefcient of the
ARMA model.
, Mean and standard deviation for clearness index.
, Mean and standard deviation for the load.
, Mean and standard deviation for the wind speed.
Satisfaction level for the th decision criterion.
Reference level of achievement for the th
decision criterion.
Reectance of the ground.
Set of tradeoff points.
I. INTRODUCTION
R
ENEWABLE resources in the United States have become
an important portion of generation mix with a capacity of
12.7% of net electricity generation at the end of 2011. State
initiatives, including federal production tax credit and renewable
portfolio standards, and the climate change concerns have
resulted in the growth of renewable generation capacity of
approximately 39% of the national electric capacity additions
Manuscript received March 12, 2013; revised June 21, 2013, August 27,
2013, and October 11, 2013; accepted October 23, 2013. Date of publication
December 18, 2013; date of current version March 18, 2014.
The authors are with the University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557 USA, and
also with the University of Washington, Bothell, WA 98011 USA (e-mail:
aarabali@unr.edu; mghofrani@uwb.edu; etezadi@unr.edu; fadali@unr.edu).
Digital Object Identier 10.1109/TSTE.2013.2288083
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 5, NO. 2, APRIL 2014 363
1949-3029 2013 IEEE. Personal use is permitted, but republication/redistribution requires IEEE permission.
See http://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/index.html for more information.
in 2011 [1]. The stochastic nature of intermittent renewable
energy resources complicates their integration of operation and
planning purposes. A hybrid power system that is composed
of energy storage and renewable generation can alleviate the
issues associated with the renewable power supply uctuations.
Storage of the renewable power generation in excess of the load
makes it accessible for later release when the renewable genera-
tion is insufcient to supply the load [2]. This offsets the
renewable energyvariations and makes the renewable generation
integration more reliable. This is particularly true for exible
heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) loads which
can be deferred and adopted based on the renewable energy
uctuations. However, a large number of random variables and
parameters in a hybrid power system makes its optimal design
more difcult [3]. This optimization includes optimal compo-
nent-sizing for the hybrid system as well as the assessment of
system performance to realize the best compromise between the
cost and reliability. The reliability study is based on stochastic
models to consider the uncertainties of the hybrid power system
such as equipment failures and random variations in both
generation and load [4].
The design, simulation, and optimization of the isolated hybrid
power systems have beenstudiedin[5][8]. References [5] and[6]
utilized practical and experimental estimates for component-
sizing and performance evaluation without optimizing their
parameter values. Optimization techniques are employed in [7]
and [8] to design and operate the stand-alone hybrid power
systems. However, none of these studies evaluated the reliability
of the hybridpower systems for the grid-independent applications.
Several studies have proposed probabilistic frameworks for opti-
mal sizingand reliabilityanalysis of hybridpower systems [3], [4],
[9][14]. References [3], [4], [9], and [10] employed analytical
methods to mathematically model the hybrid power system and
used direct solutions to evaluate the reliability indices from its
model. However, increasing the number of random parameters
in a hybrid power systemcomplicates the mathematical computa-
tions of the reliability indices. In addition, the analytical methods
do not properly represent the random nature of hybrid power
systems and their component failures [11]. Monte Carlo simula-
tion (MCS) randomly samples the system states, irrespective of
event chronologies, to provide a detailed knowledge of the
probability distributions of reliability indices. MCS has been used
to evaluate the hybrid power system reliability [11][14]. The
utilities may have some agreements with the consumers to shift
part of their HVACloads during peak load hours. This agreement
will provide the customer with economic incentives and prevent
the need for additional conventional generation during these peak
hours. For example, NVEnergys cool share programis associated
with approximately 145 MW remote controlled air conditioning
load. These loads can be dispatched by NVEnergy through raise/
lower thermostat commands as needed [15]. A smart strategy is
required to implement the load shifting and reduce the mismatch
between the renewable generation and HVAC loads. None of
these studies investigated load shifting and its potential impact on
the hybrid system reliability/cost analysis.
This paper proposes a stochastic optimization method to
optimally size the hybrid system components while satisfying
the system reliability requirements. A sequential Monte Carlo
simulation (SMCS) method is used to generate data in a time
sequence and then calculate reliability indices fromthe simulated
experiments. The SMCS approach simulates the chronological
performance of the system by generating sequential samples of
system states for numerous time intervals. This provides a better
representation of the hybrid systems behavior for reliability
analysis when compared to the analytical methods or nonsequen-
tial MCS used in the earlier work [3], [4], [9][14]. A direct
search tool, pattern search (PS), is utilized to solve the non-
smooth problem of optimal sizing for the hybrid power system.
The traditional derivative-based optimization methods cannot be
used here due to the terms such as max and absolute value
that are utilized to calculate a dependent variable in the objective
function. In order to improve the computational efciency and
speed up the search process, the initial solution is generated using
genetic algorithm (GA). A sensitivity analysis based on the
epsilon-constraint approach and compromise-solution method
is used to realize the best tradeoff between the cost and reliability
for the hybrid power system. Our optimization gives the eco-
nomical combination of PV and wind generation for satisfying
reliability and other physical constraints.
Section II explains the PS optimization and SMCS methodol-
ogy and the physical or operational constraints on the hybrid
power system parameters. Also, ARMA models of PV and wind
power, HVAC load as well as our sensitivity analysis are pre-
sented in Section II. Different scenarios and their simulation
results are giveninSectionIII. SectionIVpresents the conclusion.
II. METHODOLOGY
The main objective of this paper is to match the HVAC loads
with the renewable energy sources without the need for supple-
mentary conventional generations or grid-connection strategies.
This will expand the use of renewable energy to reduce green-
house gases associated with the conventional generation. An
isolated stand-alone hybrid energy system including storage,
wind, and PV generation is designed to economically and
reliably supply the HVAC load. Load shifting is used to provide
the demand exibility and meet the objective.
A. ARMA Model for Wind Speed, Solar Irradiance, and Load
The SMCS requires sampling from sequences of distributions
to chronologically simulate the random behavior of the system
[16]. Time series methods are used to provide such sequences and
model the uncertainties for the sequential analysis. Several refer-
ences used ARMA as a time series model to characterize random
variations of the wind and solar generation. An th-order auto-
regressive (AR) and th-order moving average (MA) model
represents the long-termwind/solar/load characteristics [17], [18]
where is the white noise with zero mean, zero autocorrelation,
and unity variance. Ten years of historical hourly wind speed,
clearness index, and load data are used to calculate the AR and
MA coefcients and obtain a statistical model that accounts for a
long-term scheduling period. This model uses the randomly
generated value of and the previous values of and to provide
364 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 5, NO. 2, APRIL 2014
a time series representation for and generate hourly samples
for the 1-year scheduling period. Since wind, PV, and load follow
the specied patterns and the utilized 10-year data are more likely
to cover all the states that may occur for wind, PV, and load
proles, the modeling technique properly represents the systems
behavior for the scheduling period. The time series ( ) is shifted
using the mean and scaled using the standard deviation of the
historical data to obtain hourly data for wind speed, clearness
index, and load [19]
The simulated wind speed is used to calculate the wind power
output [20]
Assuming an efciency of for the powerelectronic inter-
face, the net wind power output is
A single-row layout with sufcient distance between the
individual turbines is assumed for the wind farm to avoid the
wake effects in the prevailing wind direction.
The solar irradiance is stochastically modeled using the
clearness index ( ) which is described as the quotient of the
irradiance on a at level ( ) and the extraterrestrial solar
irradiance ( ) [21]
The irradiance with an inclining angle of with respect to the
horizontal plane is given by
Here and are given by
where and are the parameters dening the correlation of the
diffuse fraction ( ) with the clearness index ( ) as follows [3]:
The simulated clearness index is used to calculate the PV
power output by
Assuming an efciency of for the powerelectronic
interface, the net PV power output is
The efciency curves of the converters are used to calculate
and [22], [23].
B. Optimization Problem
The wind and PV capacity installations and are
multiplied by the normalized renewable generation to represent
the electric power generated by renewable resources. These
parameters as well as the power rating and capacity of the storage
systemare included in the objective function to minimize the sum
of installation, operation, and maintenance costs of the hybrid
energy system.
The optimization problem can be formulated as follows:
where , , , , and are the objective
function, equality constraint, inequality constraint, dependent,
and decision variables, respectively.
The objective function of (14) is given by
The last two terms of ( ) indicate the
storage cost. The balance-of-system costs for energy and power
are included in and , respectively [24].
The powerelectronic interface cost for connecting the PV
and wind to the network is considered as a part of and .
The constraints of (15) and (16) include design, load, and
reliability constraints which are discussed below.
C. Design Constraints
Because of the physical limits existing in the operation of
hybrid system, any feasible solution of the optimization problem
must satisfy the following constraints:
1) Storage Constraints: These constraints must satisfy an
instantaneous energy balance between the sum of the
generated and stored energy and the load. The balance of
energy for the charging and discharging of the energy storage
system is given by (18a) and (18b), respectively
ARABALI et al.: STOCHASTIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT AND SIZING FOR A HYBRID POWER SYSTEM OF SOLAR/WIND/ENERGY STORAGE 365
The storage at time satises the minimum and maximum
capacity requirements as
The storage system capacity ( ) is dened as the maximum of
the storage capacities over the scheduling period
Assuming as the power rating, then for each hour, the
storage system must satisfy
The storage power rating is
2) Load Constraints: Limited human control on the generation
of the intermittent renewable resources may lead to a signicant
mismatch between the renewable generation and HVACload in a
hybrid power system. Load shifting and interruption provide
some exibility to reduce this mismatch, especially during
periods of insufcient generation and/or peak load. This is
particularly true for HVAC loads such as refrigerators, pool
pumps, and hot tubes, which have a exible time of operation.
Load shifting and interruption are implemented as
The shifted load is supplied at the earliest opportunity when
the renewable generation is in excess of the required load. The
following inequality constraint ensures that the shifted load
remains between the minimum and maximum allowable load
shifting for time :
If , then (18a) is used to
charge the storage system. If < ,
then the storage system is discharged using (18b) to supply the
excess load. If the stored energy is less than , then part of
the load is shifted to the next hour using (23a) and (23b). If the
maximum allowable load shifting ( ) cannot satisfy the
minimum capacity requirement specied by (19), then the load
is interrupted to balance the hybrid power and load.
3) Reliability Constraints: The reliability assessment evaluates
the quality of meeting load in a composite power system. During
periods of generation deciency or peak load when the hybrid
power system cannot supply the load, load shifting is applied to
balance the hybrid power and load. The load is interrupted if the
maximum allowable load shifting cannot meet this objective.
The reliability assessment of the hybrid power system considers
the system uncertainties contributing to the load interruption.
These uncertainties include equipment failure rates and random
changes in both the renewable generation and load. Equipment
failure and repair characteristics provide the two-state models for
each individual generating unit. The reliability models of wind
turbines and PV arrays in a hybrid power system are the
combination of these two-state models and power output
models dened by (6) and (13). The wind/PV power output
from each individual wind turbine/PV panel is then added to
calculate the total power generated by the wind turbines/PVunits
within a wind/PV farm. Fig. 1 shows the reliability model for a
wind/PV generator.
The equipment unavailability or equipment forced outage rate
(FOR) is the statistically calculated forced outage probability of
the unit for a long time period
where is the down time and is the up time of each unit. Both
are exponentially distributed. An updown sequence is generat-
ed for the scheduling period. This sequence is used with the wind
speed/clearness indexpower curves to obtain the generating
capacity sequence [25].
The energy not supplied (ENS) over a scheduling period ( ) is
The expected energy not supplied (EENS) is a probabilistic
index for the reliability analysis of the hybrid power system and
is expressed as
The reliability of the hybrid power system is measured using
the energy index of reliability (EIR) as follows:
where EE is the expected energy demand of the hybrid power
system design candidates over the scheduling period.
A reliability constraint guarantees that the EIR (or EENS)
satises the desired reliability level for the hybrid power system.
This constraint can be expressed by either of the following
inequalities:
D. Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation
An SMCS is used in this paper to deal with the uncertainties
of the hybrid power system. The method simulates the chrono-
logical progress of the system by generating the random
Fig. 1. Reliability model for wind/PV generator.
366 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 5, NO. 2, APRIL 2014
sequential samples of system states. The ARMA models of
renewable energy generation and HVAC loads are used to
simulate these sequences. This process is repeated for many
trials to obtain distributions for the output randomvariables [25],
[26]. The output and input random vectors are related by
An SMCS produces a sample ( ) for each input random
variable ( ) using its ARMA model. The functional relation-
ship between and is then used to produce the output
for each sample. It repeats this process for a specied number of
simulation ( ) over a scheduling period ( ). Using the sample
outputs for the th input random variable ( ), the distribution
for the th output random variable ( ) can be derived [27].
Mathematically, an SMCS includes a set of algorithms that
produce a collection of weighted random samples
, where > and at
each time instance such that for the function
E. Pattern Search
A PS-based optimization technique is utilized in this paper to
optimally size wind generation, PV generation, and adequately
size energy storage capacity in a hybrid power system, while
satisfying a specied reliability level. Generally, an initial start-
ing point supplied by the user is used to start the algorithm.
A mesh, a set of points, is then established around the present
point of the algorithm. The present point is added with a set of
vectors, called the direction vectors, which are scaled with a
scalar coefcient to make the mesh. The scalar is called the mesh
size and its default value is unity for the rst iteration. This is
illustrated in Fig. 2 where [0 1], [1 0], , and
are the direction vectors and is the initial point. The mesh
points are polled by the algorithm based on their tness function
values. If a point improves the tness function value over the
present point, it is chosen as the present point ( ) for the next
iteration and the poll is successful. Upon a successful poll, the
algorithm expands the existing mesh size with an expansion
coefcient (default value of 2) and uses the new mesh size
to form the expanded mesh around the present point. This
results in , , ,
and as the mesh points for iteration 2.
A successful poll of the mesh points by the algorithm gives
as the present point and the current mesh size is multiplied by
2 to get a mesh size of 4 at the third iteration. Otherwise, if the
poll is unsuccessful for iteration 2, the present point is retained
( ) and the mesh size is reduced for the next iteration.
Toward this end, the algorithm multiplies the current mesh size
by a contraction factor (0.5) and polls the next iteration with a
smaller mesh size.
The process halts upon the satisfaction of a termination
criterion with one of the following situations.
1) The mesh size is smaller than a specied value for the mesh
tolerance.
2) The iteration number is greater than a specied value.
3) The distance between the points found at two consecutive
successful polls is less than a specied tolerance.
This evolutionary algorithm is appropriate to solve the non-
linear, nonconvex, and nonsmooth problemof the optimal hybrid
power system design, where the classical optimization methods
cannot handle the nonconvexity and discontinuity of the objec-
tive function. Moreover, the uncertain factors considered for the
reliability assessment of the hybrid power system make our
optimization problema stochastic programthat cannot be solved
by the traditional derivative-based optimization methods.
A GA is used to generate the initial solution because of its
global search ability which ensures the convergence of the
optimization to the global optimum. The direct search tools such
as PS are faster than GA to locally nd the optimal solution. The
search capability of the population-based evolutionary algo-
rithms such as GA is highly dependent on the population size
which signicantly increases the computational burden if used in
the combination of SMCS for the whole optimization process.
Thus, the GA-based SMCS optimization necessitates a compro-
mise between the number of simulations and population size to
make its computational time reasonable. This compromise may
result in an in-convergence state or nonoptimal solution. The
local search ability and high speed of PS make it an efcient
direct search tool to resume the optimization process from the
initial solution generated by GA and improve the computational
efciency [28], [29].
We rst ran the optimization problem using our proposed
method (PS-based SMCS) and then solved the same problem
using GA with the population size of 50 and generation number
of 20. Table VI of the Appendix shows the simulation results
for the PS-based optimization and the GA results for 1000
simulations. These results demonstrate the improved efciency
of the proposed PS-based SMCS over the GA-based SMCS
optimization.
1) PS-Based SMCS Optimization: Fig. 3 presents the owchart
for the developed method. The vectors of input and output
random variables are
Ten years of hourly load, clearness index, and wind speed data
are used to characterize the uncertainties of the HVAC load and
solar/wind generation by their ARMA models. The scaling
parameters ( and ) are initialized using GA and then
used as the initial solutions to start the PS algorithm. For each
sample, a large penalty coefcient ( ) is enforced on the violated
constraints to assign a higher cost to an infeasible solution [30].
The combination is given by
Fig. 2. Formation of mesh for PS.
ARABALI et al.: STOCHASTIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT AND SIZING FOR A HYBRID POWER SYSTEM OF SOLAR/WIND/ENERGY STORAGE 367
The PS optimization obtains the optimal sizing of the hybrid
system components for a specied number of simulations ( )
over a scheduling period ( ). The optimal conguration of the
hybrid power system ensures that the system reliability require-
ments are met with minimum investment cost.
F. Sensitivity Analysis
The proposed methodology minimizes the investment cost of
the hybrid power system for a specied level of reliability.
Sensitivity analysis of the cost with respect to the reliability
level helps the investors make a rational decision which is a
compromise between the cost and reliability. An epsilon-
constraint approach is used to determine the tradeoff region for
the hybrid power system, where the cost minimization is the
objective function and the reliability criteria are the constraints.
Toward this end, is changed by values and the
objective function is calculated for the desired reliability level.
An efcient decision-making method is then required to realize
the best compromise between the reliability and cost for the
hybrid power system. We use a compromise solution that
minimizes the normalized Euclidian distance between the po-
tential optimal and utopia points. The utopia point is the point
that is close enough to the minimum point. We solve the
minimization [31]
where is the normalized function for each decision
criterion and is given by
where and are the maximum and minimum values of
and is the normalized utopia point, respectively. By
solving (35) with , each criterion would be as close as
possible to its minimum point. Normalization is necessary
because different criteria have different units.
III. CASE STUDIES
Two cases are evaluated in this section for an optimal design of
the hybrid power system. The rst case considers no load
interruption and provides the sizing requirements of the hybrid
power system for worst-case scenarios. It also gives the proba-
bility distributions of the output random variables. Based on the
design parameters, it then calculates the reliability index of the
hybrid power system. The second case provides a stochastic
framework to optimally satisfy the system reliability require-
ments with the minimum investment cost. This scenario exam-
ines the load shifting strategy and its potential impacts on the
hybrid system reliability/cost evaluation. The wind speed, clear-
ness index, and load data are from the Bonneville Power
Administration authority and Mesonet [32], [33]. Capital costs
for energy and power of the storage system are 0.2 $/Wh and
0.25 $/W, respectively [24]. The capital costs for wind and PV
generation and the values of the system parameters for the case
studies are provided in Table I. The parameters for the wind, PV,
and load ARMA models are provided in Table II.
A. Case I: Hybrid Power System Design Without the Reliability
Constraints
Case I uses the PS optimization to size the hybrid power
system components for each simulation with no load interrup-
tion. Fig. 4 shows the PDFs for the installed storage, wind, and
PV capacities as well as the storage power and cost for 30% load
shifting. These capacities fully meet the hybrid system load
without the need to interrupt the load even for the worst-case
scenarios of insufcient wind and PVgenerations. However, this
design may result in a high investment cost for the hybrid power
system. Using the expected values of these capacities avoids cost
overestimation.
Fig. 5 shows the expected values of the storage capacity and
EIR for 10 000 simulations. The convergence state is reached
after about 6000 simulations. The EIR is calculated for the
scheduling period based on the design parameters to evaluate
the reliability of the hybrid system. This gure shows the extent
Fig. 3. Flowchart for the PS-based SMCS optimization.
368 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 5, NO. 2, APRIL 2014
to which the reliability requirements are met using the expected
values of the PDFs for the installed storage, wind, and PV
capacities. This design avoids the cost overestimation associated
with designing the hybrid power system based on the maximum
values of these PDFs. However, the reliability level may not
seem appropriate for the hybrid power system. Designing the
system based on the cost distribution is a postoptimization
process which may not necessarily satisfy the desired reliability
level. The cost distribution design is based on trial and error with
no attempt at optimizing the parameter values. This demonstrates
the necessity of hybrid system design with the reliability con-
straints, which is the subject of investigation for Case II.
B. Case II: Hybrid Power System Design With the Reliability
Constraints
Case II uses the proposed method to optimally size the hybrid
system components while satisfying the desired reliability level
for the hybrid power system. We evaluate the potential impacts
of reliability level on the component sizing. The reliability
constraint for EENS is set at a desired level and the hybrid
system component-sizing problem is solved to minimize the
investment cost and meet the desired level. Table III shows the
wind, PV, and storage capacity installations and power for
different reliability levels. The optimal costs for renewable
energy generation and storage systemare also given in this table.
As shown in Table III, increasing the desired reliability level
( ) from98.18%to 99.94%increases the cost of the hybrid
power systemfor both the energy storage and renewable genera-
tion. The optimum solutions show no PV installation for lower
reliability levels while the wind installation is always contained
within the optimal solutions. This is because wind energy, when
available, can be generated for most periods of the day, whereas
PV energy is generated during the daylight periods. Thus, more
storage capacity is needed to provide energy during the hours
when no solar energy is available. In addition, the installation
cost of wind energy is less than the installation cost for PV
generation. The increased variability of higher wind generation
requires more storage capacity to deal with the uncertainties and
sustains the higher reliability levels. This increases the cost of the
hybrid wind and storage system. Therefore, the optimal design of
the hybrid power systemfor higher reliability levels requires both
the wind and PV generation to be installed within the system.
This is due to the less uctuations in PV generation which
decreases the storage capacity and cost of the hybrid wind, PV,
and storage system when compared to the hybrid wind and
storage system. The higher investment costs for higher reliability
levels can be offset by anappropriate load shifting strategy for the
hybrid power system. This is even more pronounced for HVAC
loads which can be deferred and adjusted according to the
renewable energy variations. Table IV shows the installed wind,
PV, and storage capacities for energy index reliability of 99.39%
( ) and different load shifting percentages.
As shown in Table IV, increasing the load shifting from 0% to
50% decreases the renewable and storage capacity installations
for the hybrid power system.
TABLE I
INSTALLATION COSTS OF WIND AND PV GENERATION AND VALUES OF THE SYSTEM
PARAMETERS [3], [11], [22], [23], [34], [35]
TABLE II
WIND, PV, AND LOAD ARMA PARAMETERS
Fig. 4. PDFs for the installed storage, wind andPVcapacities, storage power, and
cost of the hybrid power system.
Fig. 5. Expected values of the storage capacity and EIR.
ARABALI et al.: STOCHASTIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT AND SIZING FOR A HYBRID POWER SYSTEM OF SOLAR/WIND/ENERGY STORAGE 369
The epsilon-constraint approach is used to determine the
compromise between the cost and reliability (EENS), as shown
in Fig. 6. Using least-squares curve tting, a curve is tted on the
tradeoff points. Then, the best compromise is adopted as the nal
solution utilizing the compromise-solution method. Table V
shows the nal optimal plan for this tradeoff for different values
of the utopia points close to 1 ( for cost and for EENS).
Two decision criteria are considered for our problem: the cost
( ) and reliability index ( ). The maximum and minimum
values of each criterion ( and ) are obtained from the
tradeoff points shown in Fig. 6 to calculate the normalized
function of (36). For a certain value of , increasing
increases the reliability level (decreases EENS) for the hybrid
power system. This is evident for higher values of , where the
EENS decreases from0.0915 MWh for and
to 0.0869 MWh for and . The same trend is
observed for and , where the EENS decreases
from 0.0964 to 0.0919 MWh and 0.1011 to 0.0966 MWh as
increases from 0.95 to 1. Increasing the utopia values for
reliability ( ) from 0.95 to 1 requires an investment cost that
increases from 8.1853, 8.0783, and 7.9803 M$ to 8.2953,
8.1773, and 8.0733 M$ for , , and ,
respectively. Another observation is that increasing the utopia
values for cost from 0.9 to 1 with the same decreases the
reliability and cost of the system.
IV. CONCLUSION
This paper has proposed a stochastic framework for perfor-
mance assessment of a hybrid power system to supply a deferra-
ble HVAC load. The ARMA models are used to characterize the
uncertainties of PV and wind power as well as HVAC loads.
The PS-based SMCS optimization is proposed to optimally size
the hybrid system components and satisfy the reliability require-
ments. Optimal design of the hybrid power system is calculated
for a residential feeder under different case studies. The simula-
tion results for lower reliability levels showwind generation with
no PVinstallation in the optimal solutions. The optimal design of
the hybrid power systemfor higher reliability levels requires both
wind and PVgeneration. Aload shifting strategy is developed to
offset the higher investment costs for higher reliability levels.
The simulation results showthe tradeoff between the systemcost
and reliability for a hybrid power system. The best compromise is
realized using a compromise-solution method. The decision-
making process is performed for different values of the utopia
points to determine the nal optimal plan based on the decisions
maker preferences. The proposed methodology enables electric
utilities to efciently utilize the installed renewable resources
and storage capacities for supplying the controllable exible
load, such as the HVAC load.
APPENDIX
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FINAL DECISION MAKING FOR THE HYBRID POWER SYSTEM
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Amirsaman Arabali (S11) received the B.Sc. degree in electrical engineering
from Semnan University, Semnan, Iran, and the M.Sc. degree from Sharif
University of Technology, Tehran, Iran, in 2005 and 2010, respectively. He is
currently pursuing the Ph.D. degree at the University of Nevada, Reno, NV, USA.
His research interests include power systems operation and planning, power
market, energy management, and renewable energy.
Mahmoud Ghofrani (M11) received the B.Sc. degree in electrical engineering
from Amir-Kabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran, and the M.Sc. degree
from University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, in 2005 and 2008, respectively.
He is currently an Assistant Professor at the University of Washington, Bothell,
WA, USA. His research interests include power systems operation and planning,
renewable energy, and large scale integration of wind power generation.
Mehdi Etezadi-Amoli (LSM11) received the Ph.D. degree from New Mexico
State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA, in 1974.
From 1975 to 1979, he worked as an Assistant Professor of electrical
engineering at NewMexico State and the University of NewMexico, Las Cruces,
NM, USA. From 1979 to 1983, he worked as a Senior Protection Engineer at
Arizona Public Service Company, Phoenix, AZ, USA. In 1983, he joined the
faculty of the Electrical Engineering Department at the University of Nevada,
Reno, NV, USA. His current interest is in power system protection, large-scale
systems, fuzzy control, neural network applications, and renewable energy.
Mohammed Sami Fadali (SM91) received the Ph.D. degree fromUniversity of
Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA, in 1980.
From1983 to 1985, he was a Postdoctoral Fellowat Colorado State University,
Fort Collins, CO, USA. In 1994, he was a Visiting Professor at Oakland
University, Rochester, MI, USA. He is currently a Professor of electrical
engineering at the University of Nevada, Reno, NV, USA. His research interests
include robust control, fuzzy-logic control, renewable energy systems, random
signals, and fault detection.
ARABALI et al.: STOCHASTIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT AND SIZING FOR A HYBRID POWER SYSTEM OF SOLAR/WIND/ENERGY STORAGE 371