in a transition period. They may appear divergent, since North America focuses on energy production and European coun- tries, such as Germany, focus on energy imports, but these poli- cies also refect greater coopera- tion between transatlantic part- ners. The situation in Ukraine has once more raised energy security concerns in Europe and should motivate North American and European partners toward further energy and political cohe- sion. Transatlantic Security Task Force Series Policy Brief Bridging Energy Gaps for Greater Transatlantic Cooperation by Kristine Berzina German Marshall Fund of the United States-Paris 71 Boulevard Raspail 75006 Paris T: +33 1 47 23 47 18 E: infoparis@gmfus.org October 2014 Introduction Energy policies in the United States and Europe ofen appear to be at odds, but these conficts are over- blown. In spite of their diferences, the United States and Europe are both transforming their energy policies to improve the security of their energy supplies. Te confict in Ukraine has instigated unprecedented closeness across the Atlantic, and the crisis is helping to lay the foundation for more formal transatlantic energy security cooperation. A close transatlantic energy relationship will be crucial for addressing energy security challenges in the coming decades. As Russia builds its infrastructure and markets eastward, and China and Indias vora- cious energy needs set global trends and prices, Western leaders will need to band together to maintain geopo- litical signifcance and to continue setting the global energy agenda. Te big questions that have defned energy security over the last decades are losing their salience. For decades, the threat of Russia cutting of gas to Ukraine has shaped European energy conversations. In 2006 and 2009, gas shutofs to Ukraine led to cold radiators in European capitals. But political and technical solutions have put Europe in a more secure situa- tion than ever before. Tis summers natural gas pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine has again stopped deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine. But this time, Europe is better prepared to manage any interrup- tion to its own supplies and can help Ukraine not only diplomatically and economically, but also by sending European natural gas eastward. Te situation in Ukraine has brought about closer cooperation on energy issues. Trough the G7, the transat- lantic community has set a common energy security agenda for the United States, Canada, and European part- ners. Regional cooperation, energy source and route diversifcation, energy efciency, and low carbon solutions all play crucial roles in the G7s plans for a more secure energy future. 1 Moreover, the situation in Ukraine has brought about greater accord between Europeans and North Americans on long-standing energy disputes including the EUs Fuel Quality Directive. 2
Such transatlantic cooperation on energy may come as a surprise for 1 European Commission (2014), G7 Rome Energy Ministerial Meeting, Rome G7 Energy Initiative for Energy Security: Joint Statement, May 6, 2014, http://europa. eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-530_en.htm. 2 Stephen Ewart (2014), EU fuel wording could end crude hurdles, Calgary Herald, June 7, 2014, http:// www.calgaryherald.com/business/Ewart+fuel+wording+ could+crude+hurdles/9916453/story.html. Transatlantic Security Task Force Series Policy Brief 2 Although gaps between North American and European energy policies remain, they are not a stress test for transatlantic security cooperation. those who have focused on gaps between North Amer- ican and European energy policies. Te two regions fuel choices, import dependencies, economic power, and vulnerabilities have appeared to be on diferent trajectories, with the United States hoping to use cheap gas to solve its energy needs and to fex its muscles abroad, and Europe focusing on renewables without much regard to cost or its own competitiveness. Although gaps between North American and European energy policies remain, they are not a stress test for transat- lantic security cooperation. Te gaps in approaches provide opportunities for complementarity and a formal coopera- tion. Acting as a harmonious bloc will be important as both regions address their waning importance over the coming decades. Already, China and India dominate conversations about growing energy demand and non-OECD countries consume the majority of the worlds oil supplies. 3 Te United States and Europe will need to band together on research and trade to stay at the forefront of energy innova- tion. Transatlantic Energy Gaps Europe and the United States have a common goal of improving the security of their energy supplies, but the two regions have approached this goal diferently. Te United States has been blessed with geology and technological innovation that has allowed U.S. companies to develop new tight oil and shale gas resources. In Europe, geology and political priorities have not led to a shale boom. Instead, European energy transformations have focused largely on increasing renewable energy saturation to meet energy self- sufciency and climate change goals. Te United States and Europe started out as both energy producing and energy importing countries. As recently as ten years ago, the United States planned to increase natural gas imports, and many companies built liquefed natural gas import terminals along the U.S. eastern seaboard. But the shale gas boom changed this trajectory. Since 2009, the United States has been the worlds top natural gas producer, putting more than six times more natural gas on the market than Saudi Arabia. In the European Union, the United Kingdom (U.K.) had been the major natural gas producer. But production has steadily decreased over the last decade. 3 BP (2014), BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2014, http://www.bp.com/ content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-statistical-review-of- world-energy-2014-full-report.pdf. In 2013, the U.K. produced just 35 percent of the volume of natural gas that it produced ten years earlier. 4
Households and industry in the United States have bene- fted from the fossil fuel boom and low prices for natural gas. In 2013, the price of natural gas in the United States had fallen to one-third the price of European gas. Not only has this kept household heating bills low, cheap natural gas has rejuvenated energy intensive manufacturing in the United States. Chemicals manufacturers, including Germa- nys BASF, are opening new plants in the United States to take advantage of the more competitive environment. Meanwhile in Europe, many countries are undergoing energy transformations of their own. Germany introduced its Energiewende (energy transition) in 2011, pledging to phase out nuclear power by 2022 and aiming to reach 80 percent renewable energy by 2050. Te policy has been so popular that by 2013, Germany was home to over 10 percent of the worlds renewable energy capacity (not including hydroelectricity). 5 Tis success has come at a high price to households and to energy-intensive industry. Households fnance the energy transition through surcharges on their electricity bills, and the boom in renewables has made Germanys average household elec- tricity bills the highest in Europe. Industry, which is largely exempt from paying the renewable energy surcharges, argues that their exemptions from surcharges are not enough to keep German industry competitive. Between low fuel prices in the United States and low labor costs in Asia, Germany has been put at a disadvantage. One option that analysts suggest will reduce Germanys costs developing 4 Ibid. 5 BP (2014). Transatlantic Security Task Force Series Policy Brief 3 In spite of how different the trajectories appear, both the North American shale gas boom and Germanys Energiewende aim to reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports and to improve economic competitiveness in the long run. shale gas resources of their own 6 has encountered strong domestic resistance. In spite of how diferent the trajectories appear, both the North American shale gas boom and Germanys Ener- giewende aim to reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports and to improve economic competitiveness in the long run. Both regions wish to share their experiences and technical innovations around the world. Te United States is moving quickly to achieve these goals. Not only is the United States meeting its own demand for cheap energy and cushioning itself against disruptions and political conficts in supplier states, it is preparing to share its reserves with buyers overseas. By the end of 2015, the frst shipments of liquefed natural gas from Sabine Pass, Louisiana, will be sent to buyers including Koreas Kogas, the U.K.s BG Group, Spains Gas Natural Fenosa, Frances Total, and Indias GAIL. Countries across the world are looking for a direct line to cheaper U.S. natural gas and are seeking to replicate the U.S. success story by developing shale gas of their own. Germany is playing a longer-term game. Te immediate efects of the energy transformation have been increased costs and higher coal consumption. Yet the strategic goals of the transition could eventually overcome these hurdles. 6 IHS (2014), A More Competitive Energiewende: Securing Germanys Global Com- petitiveness in a New Energy World, http://www.ihs.com/info/ecc/a/competitive-ener- giewende.aspx?ocid=gcsv2:pressrls:01. By becoming more energy self-sufcient, phasing out expensive fossil fuel imports, and paying of new renew- ables capacity quickly through feed in tarifs, Germany could become an example for how to create a competitive, resilient, low-carbon economy. Much as the United States seeks to spread its shale story, Germany is also sharing its experiences with European neighbors and emerging economies alike. A recent study found that whereas Euro- pean energy specialists focused on the Energiewendes cost challenges, experts in Brazil, China, and South Africa were favorably disposed to the Energiewende and its long-term strategic goals. 7
Toward Complementarity and Cooperation North American and European energy policies are growing closer in both domestic and foreign policy aspects. Te climate change versus fossil fuel argument once repre- sented a gulf between the transatlantic partners, but today the disagreements represent a small fssure between the two sides. European policymakers are becoming more open to pursuing new fossil fuel exploration. Te U.K. is exploring its own shale gas and tight oil reserves, and the European Union has developed recommendations for unconventional oil and gas exploration that simplify the development of new resources. Rather than mandating strict impact assessments, the standards improve transpar- ency and predictability for operators and communities. 8
Similarly, the EUs decision to ease the language of its Fuel Quality Directive appears to be an olive branch to Canada and the United States. Te directive, which aimed to label oil sands and other unconventional fuels as dirty from an emissions perspective, has been a source of confict between the transatlantic partners since 2009. Meanwhile, U.S. President Barack Obama is showing leadership on climate change issues by pressing for more serious emissions regulations for coal power plants. Tus far, U.S. success in lowering emissions has been due to markets not policy. Cheap natural gas pushed out coal in electricity generation, causing a drop in U.S. carbon 7 Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (2013), The Perception of Germanys Energiewende in Emerging Countries: Results of Qualitative Interviews on Germanys Transformation of the Energy System in Brazil, China and South Africa, Berlin: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V, http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_34940-544-2-30.pdf?140211180413. 8 European Commission (2014), Communication from the Commission to the Euro- pean Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee on the Regions on the exploration and production of hydrocarbons (such as shale gas) using high volume hydraulic fracturing in the EU, Brussels, 17.3.2014 COM(2014) 23 fnal/2, eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52014 DC0023R(01)&from=EN. Transatlantic Security Task Force Series Policy Brief 4 Europe and North America would better maintain their competitive and innovative edge in the global market by combining their markets and learning from each others best practices. emissions. But in June, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed a Clean Power Plan to regulate the emis- sions of existing power plants. 9
In their energy policies, the United States and Europe are working more closely than they have before. Te situa- tion in Ukraine has prompted cooperation not only on economic sanctions, but also on energy policies. In May, the G7 initiated a new subgroup, Te Rome G7 Energy Initiative for Energy Security, to work toward common energy security objectives, including diversifying supplies. Tis not only opens the door for more direct energy trade between North America and Europe, but also stimulates greater knowledge sharing across the Atlantic. Te United States and Europe can learn from each others experi- ences in developing new fossil fuel and renewable energy resources. Although policymakers on both sides of the ocean have criticized their transatlantic partners ties with Russian energy companies, this does not infuence the comple- mentarity of transatlantic approaches. U.S. senators, including John McCain (R-AZ), visited Bulgaria in June and discussed the engagement of European countries and companies in the Russian-led South Stream pipeline project. Austrias OMV, for example, has been a leading advocate of the project. Yet criticism of this nature can equally be aimed at U.S. companies. In spite of the situa- tion in Ukraine, ExxonMobil has maintained operations in Russia. Te challenges of balancing foreign policy and economic ties are equally relevant for all transatlantic partners. Future Challenges Te present gaps between European and North American energy supplies and energy policies do not constitute a stress test for their energy or security cooperation. A stress test would need to strain the ties between the two sides. Te gaps that remain provide fertile ground for knowledge sharing and strategic cooperation rather than for further tension. Te diferences between North America and Europe are petty when compared to enormous gulfs between the energy landscape in the West and in the rest of the world. 9 U.S. Federal Register (2014), Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units, https://www.federalregister.gov/ articles/2014/06/18/2014-13726/carbon-pollution-emission-guidelines-for-existing- stationary-sources-electric-utility-generating. Te Western countries are accustomed to creating tech- nologies frst for their own beneft and then sharing them with the rest of the world. Yet the pace of growth in the West cannot sustain this dynamic. Te Asia-Pacifc region consumes nearly as much energy as North America, Europe, and Eurasia combined. With energy demand steadily falling in Europe and energy efciency goals fnally taking hold in the United States, 10 the importance of the transatlantic partners in global energy markets will wane. China and Indias high consumption will allow them to steer the direction of energy development across the world. Europe and North America would better maintain their competitive and innovative edge in the global market by combining their markets and learning from each others best practices. It remains to be seen whether the transat- lantic partners will continue on their present path of coop- eration. Te situation in Ukraine has given both sides of the Atlantic a jolt of worry about energy security and moti- vated mutual learning. At the moment, Europe is looking more to North America for lessons on greater resilience. In the coming decades, North America should be equally open to learning from Europe. North America should not be overconfdent in its global position. Although the United States and Canada currently have an advantage over Europe because of their high fossil fuel production, they should not forget that the U.K. and the Netherlands also once luxuriated in vast fossil fuel resources. If the United States and Canada continue to produce natural gas at the rate both did in 2013, their proved reserves will be depleted in 14 years; Canada has 10 The Asia-Pacifc Region consumes 40.5 percent of global primary energy. North America, Europe, and Eurasia consume 45.4 percent. BP (2014). Transatlantic Security Task Force Series Policy Brief 5 Te views expressed in GMF publications and commentary are the views of the author alone. About the Author Kristine Berzina is a transatlantic fellow for energy & society at GMF, where she is responsible for shaping energy programming in Europe and contributing to GMFs work in the United States. Berzina is an expert on transatlantic energy issues and has authored several publi- cations about transatlantic energy trade fows, resource exploration in the Arctic, European bioenergy policy, resource efciency, foreign policy in the Baltic States, and international afairs more broadly. About GMF Te German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and global challenges and opportunities in the spirit of the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members of the policy and business communities, by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to foster renewed commitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number of initiatives to strengthen democracies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-proft organization through a gif from Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides of the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has ofces in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, and Warsaw. GMF also has smaller representations in Bratislava, Turin, and Stockholm. Contact Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Schefer Director, Paris Ofce German Marshall Fund of the United States Tel: +33 1 47 23 47 18 Email: adehoopschefer@gmfus.org over a century of oil supplies lef, but U.S. proved oil reserves could be depleted in 12 years at the current pace of production. 11 Tese statistics, of course, are subject to change, and new supplies are constantly being discovered. Still, North American policymakers should consider non- fossil fuel options for their long-term strategies. Tey have a lot to learn from their European partners when managing such a transition. 11 BP (2014).