Emerging and Increasing? Duri ng 1995, i nfecti ous di sease epi demi cs i n Lati n Ameri ca and the Cari bbean r ecei ved wi de publ i ci ty: dengue throughout the r egi on, Venezue- l an equi ne encephal i ti s (VEE) i n Venezuel a and Col ombi a, and hemorrhagi c fever i n Ni caragua. I ncr eased awareness of these di seases fol l owed extensi ve reports i n the sci enti fi c communi ty about the threat of emer gi ng i nfecti ons (1,2). Are i nfecti ous di seases i ncreasi ng i n the regi on or are we si mpl y seei ng the resul ts of better r eporti ng of persi stent probl ems? Anal ysi s suggests that both factors are at wor k. Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Duri ng the 1950s and 1960s, under the l eader- shi p of the Pan Amer i can Heal th Organi zati on (PAHO), most countri es i n the Ameri cas success- ful l y r educed or el i mi nated i nfestati on wi th Aedes aegypti, the pri nci pal vector of dengue and urban yel l ow fever. As a resul t, much of the Amer i cas became free of dengue. Dengue transmi ssi on, however, persi sted i n many Cari bbean i sl ands and i n some countri es of norther n South Amer i ca that fai l ed to control the vector; ther efore, several out- breaks occur red duri ng the 1960s and i n sub- sequent decades (3). Ae. aegypti eradi cati on programs, however, were not sustai ned and the mosqui to r ei nfested al l Lati n Amer i can countri es except Chi l e and Ur uguay. As a consequence, dengue spr ead throughout the regi on, causi ng sever e epi demi cs or even pandemi cs duri ng the 1970s and 1980s. Cur rentl y, dengue i s endemi c i n vi rtual l y al l coun- tri es wi th Ae. aegypti, and epi demi cs occur peri - odi cal l y. Between 1968 and 1980, onl y 60 suspected or confi rmed cases of dengue hemorrhagi c fever (DHF) were reported, al l by fi ve countri es i n and around the Cari bbean. After the 1981 DHF out- break i n Cuba, r eports of DHF i n the Amer i cas markedl y i ncr eased. The Cuban epi demi c was the most notabl e event i n the hi story of dengue i n the Ameri cas: al most 400,000 cases of dengue, over 10,000 cases of DHF, and 158 deaths were r e- ported. The Cuban authori ti es i mpl emented a successful vector control program and the country i s sti l l vi rtual l y free of Ae. aegypti. After thi s outbreak, cases of DHF conti nued to occur i n the Ameri cas, al though at rel ati vel y l ow l evel s, unti l 1989 when another l arge epi demi c wi th 2,500 cases of DHF occurred i n Venezuel a. Si nce then, Venezuel a has reported l arge numbers of DHF cases every year, and i n 1995 the country reported the l argest outbreak of dengue/DHF i n i ts hi story: al most 30,000 dengue cases and 5,000 DHF cases. Si nce 1968, 25 countri es of the Ameri cas have reported more than 35,000 confi rmed or suspected DHF cases and approxi matel y 500 deaths. I n 1995, dengue and DHF acti vi ty i n the regi on was hi gher than i n any year except 1981. As of November, countri es i n the Ameri cas had reported more than 200,000 dengue cases and 6,000 DHF cases, and approxi matel y 90 deaths. Brazi l has had the l argest number of dengue cases, but more than 80% of the DHF cases occurr ed i n Venezuel a. The r ei nvasi on of the Amer i cas by dengue vi rus type 3, whi ch had been absent for 16 years, has i ncreased the threat of l arge epi demi cs and conse- quent ri sk for DHF (4). Thi s serotype was i sol ated i n Panama and Ni caragua at the end of 1994, and i n 1995 i t spread to other Central Ameri can coun- tri es (except Bel i ze) and Mexi co, causi ng severe outbreaks. Hi gh l evel s of i nfestati on wi th Ae. aegypti are common from the Uni ted States to Argenti na, maki ng i t l i kel y that dengue epi demi cs wi l l i ncr ease i n fr equency and severi ty. Cholera Another di sease reemer gi ng i n the Ameri cas i s epi demi c chol era, whi ch had been absent from thi s hemi sphere for appr oxi matel y 90 years before i t was i ntroduced i nto Peru i n January 1991 (5). Si nce then mor e than 1 mi l l i on cases of chol era have been reported i n 20 countri es i n the regi on. Onl y Uruguay and the i sl ands of the Cari bbean have been spared. Though the annual total of reported cases has decr eased si nce 1991, the di s- ease i s persi stent and probl emati c i n several Lati n Ameri can countri es. Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis An outbreak of human i nfecti on wi th VEE vi rus associ ated wi th a l arge number of equi ne cases and deaths was detected i n northwestern Vene- zuel a i n Apri l 1995. The di sease spr ead to the adjacent Col ombi an state of La Guaji ra i n Sep- tember (6). Unusual l y heavy rai ns duri ng 1994 an d 1995 con tr i bu ted to th e epi demi c by Commentary Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996 59 Emerging Infectious Diseases i ncreasi ng breedi ng si tes for the mosqui to vectors Ae. taeniorrhynchus and Psorophora confinnis. Vi - ral strai ns wi th epi zooti c and epi demi c potenti al appear to have emerged from enzooti c strai ns mai ntai ned i n enzooti c r odent-mosqui to cycl es (7). I n addi ti on, fai l ure to i mmuni ze wi l d and domes- ti c equi ne popul ati ons al l owed the vi rus to ampl i fy and spread. By mi d-October 1995, reported hu- man cases total ed 26,500 i n Venezuel a and 22,300 i n Col ombi a, wi th 24 deaths i n the l atter. Attack rates i n severel y affected communi ti es were 18% to 57%. Thi s epi demi c of VEE i s the l argest si nce that of 1962-1971, when the di sease extended from northern South Ameri ca through Central Ameri ca and Mexi co to the Uni ted States (8). I ntensi fi ed vector control (i ncl udi ng appl i cati on of adul ti ci des and l arvi ci des), equi ne vacci nati on, and r estri c- ti on of equi ne movement appear to have at l east temporari l y control l ed the epi demi c. Leptospirosis I n l ate October 1995, Ni caragua reported sev- eral hundred cases of a hemorr hagi c febri l e i l l ness i n and near the communi ty of Achuapa, approxi - matel y 110 km northwest of Managua; ei ght pa- ti ents di ed. The affected communi ti es had experi enced unusual l y heavy rai ns and fl oodi ng duri ng the 2 weeks before the cases were noted. Al though dengue was occur r i ng el sewher e i n Ni caragua at the same ti me, that di agnosi s was excl uded by negati ve l aboratory tests and the absence of Ae. aegypti i n the l ocal area. I n addi - ti on, some of the pati ents had frank pul monary hemorrhage [not typi cal of dengue]. By the end of October, the Centers for Di sease Control and Pr e- venti on had rul ed out dengue, other arbovi ruses, and hemor rhagi c fever vi ruses as causes but had i denti fi ed l eptospi ra by i mmunohi stochemi stry i n ti ssues from four pati ents wi th fatal cases. By mi d-November, the Mi ni stry of Heal th reported that 2,480 persons had been i l l , 750 were hospi tal - i zed, and at l east 16 di ed. (I nvesti gati on to defi ne the extent of i l l ness and the r esponsi bl e ser ovars was sti l l i n progress at thi s wri ti ng.) Of the exampl es di scussed here, dengue and DHF are certai nl y r eemergi ng. Dengue has been si gnal i ng i ts r eturn for mor e than 15 years and DHF si nce 1989; these di seases wi l l l i kel y persi st as epi demi c pr obl ems unl ess drasti c changes i n vector control are achi eved. Enzooti c VEE has persi sted i n northern Venezuel a and Col ombi a si nce the pr evi ous major epi demi c of 1962-1971. PAHO had urged the countri es to i ncr ease vacci - nati on coverage of equi nes because of i ncr eased vi ral acti vi ty i n 1993 and 1994. The appearance i n 1995 of strai ns si mi l ar to these of the 1962-1971 epi demi cs, wi th l ocal l y i ntense transmi ssi on, rai sed the possi bi l i ty that VEE woul d r eemerge as a major epi demi c di sease. Whether vi gorous vec- tor control measures and i mmuni zati on pr ograms have contai ned that threat i s not yet known, but we must conti nue to regard the threat as real . Leptospi rosi s i s a persi stent, often under-recog- ni zed, probl em to whi ch the i nternati onal commu- ni ty has pai d r el ati vel y l i ttl e attenti on. I n Ni caragua, publ i c heal th i nter est was sparked by concer n that the epi demi c of a new di sease woul d pose a threat to other communi ti es and countri es, but attenti on waned as that threat di mi ni shed. Yel l ow fever, whi ch i s usual l y present i n rel ati vel y l ow numbers i n remote areas of South Ameri ca, reemerged wi th for ce i n Peru duri ng 1995. At l east seven departments of that country have been af- fected (470 cases and a 40% case-fatal i ty rate by September 1995). Several factors have contri buted to the reemer- gence of i nfecti ous di seases i n the Ameri cas. I n- vestments i n publ i c heal th have been decr easi ng because of economi c recessi on and a shri nki ng publ i c sector or have been di verted from i nfecti ous di sease programs to other pr essi ng probl ems (9). Human popul ati ons throughout the regi on have gr own and become i ncreasi ngl y urban, wi th many l i vi ng i n i nadequate housi ng wi thout sani tati on or potabl e water. At the same ti me, popul ati on and commerci al pressures have l ed to the i nvasi on of forests, exposi ng peopl e to exoti c agents and en- zooti c di seases, i ncl udi ng yel l ow fever, rabi es transmi tted by vampi re bats, arenavi ruses, and others. Human behavi or has contri buted to epi - demi c pl ague i n Per u and the rapi d spread of di seases such as chol era. To thi s l i st can be added the effects of deforestati on and habi tat and cl i - mate change. Unusual l y heavy rai nfal l contri b- uted to at l east three of the epi demi cs consi der ed i n thi s commentary (10). Commentary Emerging Infectious Diseases 60 Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996 I nfecti ous di seases (whether new or r ee- mergi ng) are a real and seri ous pr obl em i n Lati n Ameri ca and the Cari bbean. To combat the threat of these di seases, PAHO, wi th the parti ci pati on of other i nsti tuti ons i n the regi on, has prepared a r egi on al pl an to i mpr ov e s ur vei l l ance for emergi ng di sease and enhance countri es abi l i ty to respond effecti vel y by strengtheni ng l aboratory capaci ty, trai ni ng, and r esearch and by i mpl e- menti ng preventi on and control strategi es. Mi ni s- ters of heal th from countri es throughout the regi on di scussed and endorsed the pl an at a meet- i ng of PAHOs Di recti ng Counci l i n September 1995. Successful i mpl ementati on of the pl an wi l l r equi r e commi tted acti on by publ i c heal th authori ti es and col l aborati on and cooperati on by many i nsti tuti ons and experts throughout the r e- gi on. A. David Brandling-Bennett Francisco Pinheiro Pan Ameri can Heal th Organi zati on Washi ngton, D.C., USA References 1. I nsti tute of Medi ci ne. Emergi ng i nfecti ons: mi cr obi al thr eats to heal th i n the Uni ted States. Washi ngton, DC: Nati onal Academy Pr ess, 1992. 2. Centers for Di sease Contr ol and Preventi on. Address- i ng emergi ng i nfecti ous di sease threats: a pr eventi on str ategy for the Uni ted States. Atl anta, GA: Center s for Di sease Control and Preventi on, 1994. 3. Pan Amer i can Heal th Organi zati on. Dengue and den- gue hemorrhagi c fever i n the Amer i cas: gui del i nes for pr eventi on and control . Washi ngton, DC: Pan Ameri - can Heal th Organi zati on, 1995. 4. Centers for Di sease Contr ol and Preventi on. Dengue type 3 i nfecti onNi caragua and Panama, October- November 1994. MMWR 1995;44:21-4. 5. Tauxe RV, Mi ntz ED, Qui ck RE. Epi demi c chol era i n the New Worl d: transl ati ng epi demi ol ogy i nto new pr eventi on strategi es. Emergi ng I nfecti ous Di seases 1995;1:141-6. 6. Centers for Di sease Control and Preventi on. Venezue- l an equi ne encephal i ti sCol ombi a, 1995. MMWR 1995;44:721-4. 7. Centers for Di sease Control and Preventi on. Update: Venezuel an equi ne encephal i ti sCol ombi a, 1995. MMWR 1995;44:775-7. 8. Wal ton TE, Grayson MA. Venezuel an equi ne encepha- l omyel i ti s. I n: Monath TP, ed. The arbovi r uses: epi demi ol ogy and ecol ogy. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 1989;203-32. 9. Pan Amer i can Heal th Organi zati on. Soci al response to heal th probl ems. I n: Heal th Condi ti ons i n the Ameri cas. Washi ngton, DC: Pan Amer i can Heal th Or- gani zati on, 1994;303-420. 10. Epstei n PR, Pena OC, Racedo JB. Cl i mate and di sease i n Col ombi a. Lancet 1995:346;1243-4. Commentary Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996 61 Emerging Infectious Diseases Microbial Threats and the Global Society The publ i c heal th threat of mi crobi al organi sms l i vi ng i n what can be regarded as one l arge gl obal soci ety was the subject of a recent i nteracti ve workshop sponsored by Tufts Uni versi tys Educa- ti on for Publ i c I nqui ry and I nter nati onal Ci ti zen- shi p 10th anni versary cel ebrati on, hel d at Tufts Uni versi ty i n Medford, Massachusetts. The par- ti ci pants* di scussed mi crobes as the harbi ngers of di sease and soci ety as both potenti al vi cti m and guardi an of heal th. Mi crobi al threats were i denti - fi ed as new, r eemergi ng, and not yet known. The for um exami ned the many unanswer ed questi ons regardi ng the or i gi n and causes of i nfec- ti ous di sease agents. The fai l ur e of tradi ti onal treatments due to anti bi oti c resi stance and the i neffecti ve control and conti nued spread of i nfec- ti ous agents were al so di scussed. Parti ci pants ad- dressed envi ronmental and behavi or factors that foster the ampl i fi cati on and spread of di sease organi sms: bathhouses conduci ve to the spread of HI V i nfecti on, homel essness and crowded l i vi ng promoti ng the spread of tubercul osi s, day-care centers that are i deal envi ronments for the spr ead of drug-r esi stant pneumococcus. I n the context of the workshop at Tufts, anal y- ses of emergi ng i nfecti ous di sease i ssues gener- ated i nsi ghts about the pol i ti cal and soci al framework wi thi n whi ch to address these threats to heal th: A mi nori ty group may be parti cul arl y affected by a new or reemergi ng di sease, as was the case, for exampl e, of AI DS i n the gay popul a- ti on or tubercul osi s i n the i mmi grant and home- l ess popul ati on. These groups become val uabl e resour ces for understandi ng the factors l eadi ng to the emergence or reemergence of the di sease and shoul d be the focus of publ i c heal th efforts for curtai l i ng i ts spread. However, as the hi stor y of AI DS demonstrates, because of pol i ti cal concerns, i nvesti gati ve efforts are often del ayed or i nade- quate to stop the spread of the di sease. An emer gi ng or r eemergi ng organi sm, however, propagates and spreads unhi ndered by the soci al concer ns of i ts potenti al l y i nfectabl e host. To mi - cr oorgani sms, the worl d i s a si ngl e enti ty wi thout borders. Mi croorgani sms have mor e freedom than we do and al so mor e geneti c fl exi bi l i ty. Thus, i n the contest between humans and mi crobes, we are at a di sadvantage. We can nei ther easi l y acqui re resi stance mechani sms against the or gani sms, nor rapi dl y r espond to an i nfecti ous di sease pr ob- l em i n another country. The recent di ffi cul ti es i n deal i ng wi th a possi bl e pl ague epi demi c i n I ndi a are just one exampl e. Moreover, anti bi oti cs whi ch have been a front-l i ne weapon agai nst di seases are becomi ng i ncr easi ngl y i neffecti ve, and new anti bi oti cs to treat and contai n dr ug-resi stant bacteri al strai ns are not avai l abl e. I nadequate mi crobi ol ogi c di agnosti c capabi l - i tyal so the r esul t of the nati onal and i nterna- ti onal pol i ti cal cl i mateworks to the advantage of emergi ng mi cr obes. Duri ng the pl ague outbreak i n I ndi a, l aborator y faci l i ti es that coul d confi rm the di agnosi s were l acki ng. I n the Uni ted States, si mi l ar i nadequaci es i n l aboratory di agnosti c ca- paci ty i nterfere wi th rapi d reporti ng of common communi ty-acqui red i nfecti ons and thei r suscep- ti bi l i ty to anti bi oti cs. I f physi ci ans promptl y knew what they were treati ng, the need for use of an anti bi oti c as wel l as the pr oper ki nd of anti bi oti c woul d be based on data, not guesswork. The emergence of anti bi oti c r esi stance was not factored i nto strategi c pl anni ng by publ i c heal th authori ti es. I f i t had been, perhaps condi ti ons coul d have been i n pl ace to handl e i t, as wel l as AI DS, tubercul osi s, and other emergi ng patho- gens. I nsurance agai nst devastati ng happeni ngs i n i nfecti ous di sease has never been gi ven the attenti on i t deserves. Such i nsurance woul d have been hel pful , not just i n money, but al so i n exper- ti se to for fend and then cope wi th the cal ami ty, l i ke i nsurance for earthquake damage to structure and other unexpected di sasters. Shoul d we not consi der i nsuri ng our future by putti ng more money and experti se i nto basi c research, i nto sys- tems for survei l l ance, and i nto ways to curtai l the spread of a di sease once i t has emerged? To meet the demands of i ncreased publ i c heal th acti vi ty and to i mpl ement an i nsurance pol i cy for the future, we need to be abl e to communicate the probl em to a broad audi ence that someti mes has l i ttl e understandi ng of the sci ence. To some publ i c heal th offi ci al s, recogni ti on that an i nfec- ti ous di sease probl em exi sts i s suffi ci ent to ad- dress the probl em. However, to those not trai ned i n the fi el d who may be maki ng i mportant pol i cy deci si ons, the publ i c safety aspect of the pr obl em can be emphasi zed. Heal th, l i ke cri me and traffi c, shoul d become once agai n a major soci ety i ssue. Requests for i ncreasi ng support for survei l - l ance, educati on, and research must take i nto account curr ent pol i ti cal and soci al pri ori ti es and Commentary Emerging Infectious Diseases 62 Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996 emphasi ze di rect benefi ts to the U.S. popul ati on; i nter nati onal efforts shoul d i nvol ve the col l abora- ti on of other countri es. Nongovernment agenci es need to be enl i sted i n thi s publ i c heal th effort; thus a l arger porti on of soci ety wi l l be i nvol ved i n the fi ght agai nst the ever-i ncreasi ng thr eat of i nfecti ous di seases. Stuart B. Levy Center for Adaptati on Geneti cs and Drug Resi stance, Tufts Uni versi ty School of Medi ci ne, Boston Massachusetts, USA *Participants: Stuart B. Levy, Tufts University School of Medicine, and Ruth L. Berkelman, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (co-conveners); Christopher Foreman, The Brookings Institute; Laurie Garrett, Newsday; Margaret Hamberg, New York City Department of Health; Joshua Lederberg, Rockefeller University; Jonathan Mann, Christopher Murray, Harvard School of Public Health. Commentary Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996 63 Emerging Infectious Diseases Xenotransplantation: Risks, Clinical Potential, and Future Prospects The reemergence of xenotranspl antati on as a therapeuti c opti on for the hundreds of thousands of peopl e dyi ng each year of heart, ki dney, l ung, and l i ver fai l ur e has rai sed ethi cal , soci al , and sci enti fi c questi ons. End-stage organ fai l ure i s one of the most i mportant publ i c heal th pr obl ems fac- i ng Ameri cans today. Heart fai l ur e, for exampl e, ki l l s four ti mes as many peopl e as does HI V i nfec- ti on and thr ee ti mes as many peopl e as does breast cancer; i t i s a di sease wi th an i ncreasi ng i nci dence, and the cost of taki ng care of affected pati ents i s 8 to 35 bi l l i on dol l ars each year. The si ngl e most effecti ve therapy for i t i s transpl antati on. Preven- ti ve therapi es have had l i ttl e i mpact on di seases due to end-stage organ fai l ure and are unl i kel y to have an i mpact at l east i n the next decade. I n the meanti me, demand for or gans, whi ch far outstri ps the suppl y, conti nues to grow. I t has been esti - mated that approxi matel y 45,000 Ameri cans un- der age 65 coul d benefi t each year from heart transpl antati on, yet onl y 2,000 human hearts are avai l abl e annual l y. Pati ents are mor e l i kel y to di e wai ti ng for a human donor heart than i n the fi rst 2 years after transpl antati on. Al though cl earl y an experi mental procedure, xenotranspl antati on between cl osel y rel ated spe- ci es, such as baboons and humans, offers an al ter- nati ve to al l otranspl antati on as a source of human organ repl acement. Al ternati ves to al l ograft do- nors, such as baboon or pi g xenografts, requi re seri ous i nvesti gati on i f cl i ni cal transpl antati on i s ever to meet the current demand and conti nue the expl osi ve growth pattern i t has establ i shed over the past quarter century. Bi ol ogi c cardi ac repl acement poses the i mmu- nol ogi c probl ems of rejecti on and i nfecti on associ - ated wi th transpl antati on. I ncreasi ng cl i ni cal experi ence worl dwi de has shown that rejecti on and i nfecti on can be managed successful l y i n most pati ents who recei ve human cardi ac al l ografts. Further, the i ntroducti on of cycl ospori ne as the pri mary i mmunosuppressi ve agent for cardi ac transpl ant r eci pi ents has resul ted i n excel l ent survi val rates (85% 1-year survi val at most cen- ters) and has decr eased i l l ness associ ated wi th i nfecti on and rejecti on. Al though consi derabl e ad- vances have been made i n the fi el d of cardi ac xenotranspl antati on si nce i ts fi rst cl i ni cal appl i - cati on by Hardy i n 1964 (1), i t remai ns uncertai n whether xenotranspl antati on as desti nati on ther- apy can be successful l y appl i ed to humans. How- ever, heart, ki dney, and l i ver xenografts have been abl e to support human l i fe for an extended peri od. I t i s thi s fact that i nvesti gators wi sh to expl oi t i n cl i ni cal bri dgi ng studi es. By provi di ng temporary heart, ki dney, or l i ver support as a bri dge-to- transpl antati on, these bi ol ogi cal devi ces may al - l ow pati ents to recover end-organ functi on and awai t al l ograft transpl antati on i n a mor e stabl e cl i ni cal state, thus i mprovi ng thei r chances of survi val . Bri dgi ng strategi es cannot al l evi ate the human organ donor shortage. However, i f one vi ews bri dgi ng strategi es as a fi rst feasi bi l i ty test, then cr oss-speci es transpl antati on does offer the possi bi l i ty of eventual l ong-term or gan repl ace- ment. Success i n thi s more ambi ti ous goal woul d hel p al l evi ate the human organ donor shortage. Nonhuman pri mate organ donors have been favored by those wi shi ng to mi ni mi ze the geneti c di spari ty between donors and human reci pi ents. Chi mpanzees, al though most compati bl e wi th standard sel ecti on cri teri a (e.g., compati bi l i ty of si ze and bl ood types), are unavai l abl e as an ac- ceptabl e sour ce of cl i ni cal xenotranspl antati on. Another choi ce i s the baboon, whi ch i s not endan- gered, has an anatomy and physi ol ogy si mi l ar to those of humans, and gr ows to a wei ght of approxi - matel y 70 pounds. Baboon si ze woul d l i mi t the cl i ni cal appl i cati on of xenotranspl antati on wi th baboon organs to pedi atri c pati ents and smal l adul ts. Smal l body si ze, the i nfrequency of bl ood gr oup O (uni versal donor) ani mal s, and the l i m- i ted number of col ony-bred ani mal s are di sti nct di sadvantages to the baboon as a donor. Extended graft survi val i s possi bl e, but ABO bl ood group compati bi l i ty i s mandator y before xenotranspl antati on (2). The di stri buti on of ABO bl ood groups found i n baboons i ndi cates that ap- proxi matel y one thi rd are group A, one-thi rd gr oup B, and one-thi rd group AB. Uni versal donor gr oup O, however, i s exceedi ngl y rare. I n Ameri - cans of Wester n European descent, the rel ati ve frequency of bl ood types i s approxi matel y 45% gr oup A, 8% group B, 4% group AB, and 43% group O (2). Al though avai l abl e i n l arge numbers, wi l d ba- boons are not sui tabl e from an i nfecti ous di sease perspecti ve. Most experts have suggested that col ony-bred ani mal s r epresent a more sui tabl e donor pool . However, these ani mal s number onl y i n the hundreds and are, therefor e, onl y l i kel y to Commentary Emerging Infectious Diseases 64 Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996 parti al l y meet the epi demi ol ogi c demands of the pedi atri c popul ati on wi th end-stage organ fai l ure. Xenotranspl antati on between baboons and hu- mans rai ses the i ssue of xenozoonoses (3,4). The organi sms of greatest concer n are the her pes- vi ruses and retrovi ruses, whi ch can be screened for and el i mi nated fr om the donor pool . Others i ncl ude Toxoplasma gondii, Mycobacterium tuber- culosis, and encephal omyocardi ti s vi rus. Less l i kel y to be found i n ani mal s rai sed i n capti vi ty i n the Uni ted States are the fi l ovi ruses (Marburg and Ebol a), monkeypox, and Si mi an hemorrhagi c fever vi rus. Organi sms that are unl i kel y to be transmi tted wi th an or gan transpl ant (but shoul d be scr eened for ) i ncl ude l ymphocyti c chori omen- i ngi ti s vi rus, gastroi ntesti nal parasi tes, and GI bacteri al pathogens. The ri sk for xenozoonoses i s l i kel y to be r e- stri cted to the xenogenei c ti ssue reci pi ent. Never- thel ess, one must consi der and anti ci pate the potenti al for xenozoonoti c transmi ssi on thr ough the human popul ati on, consti tuti ng a publ i c heal th concer n. The ri sk for recogni zed zoonoti c pathogens can be reduced, i f not el i mi nated, by control l i ng the donor ani mal vendor source and the i ndi vi dual donor ani mal by empl oyi ng de- scri bed screeni ng tests and stri ct steri l e pr oce- dures duri ng or gan harvesti ng and donor autopsy for ti ssue and bl ood. The ri sk for unrecogni zed pathogens i s present but i l l defi ned. Survei l l ance for the transmi ssi on of known or unknown pathogens among heal th care workers must be conducted by moni tori ng for unexpected or unexpl ai ned adverse heal th events. I t i s di ffi - cul t to moni tor for the unknown; therefor e, sur- vei l l ance shoul d i ncl ude noti fyi ng the pri nci pal i nvesti gator s offi ce of any unexpl ai ned i l l ness i n exposed heal th care workers, as wel l as tel ephone i nter vi ews of these personnel every 6 months by the pri nci pal i nvesti gator s offi ce. Con cu r r ent wi th s ci enti fi c adv ances i n xenotranspl antati on have been the necessary ethi cal debates concerni ng the appr opri ateness of thi s endeavor (5). Di sputes r egardi ng ani mal ex- peri mentati on notwi thstandi ng, the ethi cal i ssues rai sed by many of these debates are stri ki ngl y si mi l ar to those put forth 25 years ago i n r eference to the (then new) fi el d of human heart transpl an- tati on. I ndeed, the ti mel ess nature of these que- ri es i tsel f attests to thei r essence, for such ethi cal concer ns are appropri ate i n the apprai sal of any new therapeuti c procedure i n medi ci ne. Can one ever hope to determi ne i f or when the cl i ni cal appl i cati on of xenotranspl antati on i s jus- ti fi ed? The assessment of any experi mental ther- apy, as Fox and Swazey (6) have suggested, shoul d encourage the i nvesti gator to address three cri ti - cal questi ons: 1) i n the l aborator y, what defi nes success suffi ci ent to warrant advancement to the cl i ni cal arena? 2) under what cl i ni cal condi - ti ons shoul d thi s advancement proceed? and 3) i n the cl i ni cal arena, what defi nes success suffi - ci ent to warrant further eval uati on (6)? Provi di ng answers to thi s thr eefol d i nqui ry r equi res a r el i - ance upon defi ned success, i tsel f an apprai sal of judgment that can onl y confi dentl y be made i n retrospect. Because human heart transpl antati on i s now consi dered by most justi fi abl e for the treatment of end-stage heart di sease, I woul d fi rst l i ke to r e- vi ew the hi story of cardi ac al l otranspl antati on i n l i ght of i ts abi l i ty to address the above threefol d i nqui ry. I wi l l al so di scuss the hi stor y of cardi ac xenotranspl antati on wi th reference to sci enti fi c advances made i n the fi el d throughout the past quarter century. Fi nal l y, i n l i ght of these anal yses, I hope to i l l ustrate the rol e of baboon heart xenotranspl antati on as an al ternati ve to al l o- transpl antati on for permanent cardi ac repl ace- ment i n the treatment of end-stage heart di sease. After the fi rst human cardi ac al l ograft pr oce- dure performed by Barnard i n 1967 (7) the fi el d of cardi ac transpl antati on wi tnessed a sur ge i n both enthusi asm and attempted tri al s, whi ch was fol - l owed by a marked drop i n pr ocedur es throughout the 1970s because of poor survi val rates. Duri ng the i ni ti al peak, 21 human heart al l otranspl ants were performed i n the 6-month i nterval between December 1967 and June 1968 (wi th a cumul ati ve 1-year survi val of 22%), and 105 cardi ac al l o- transpl antati ons were performed i n 1968 al one (8-10). However, these earl y cl i ni cal tri al s were marr ed by numerous fai l ures, as 65% of persons undergoi ng the pr ocedur e before June 1970 di ed wi thi n 3 months of transpl antati on (6). Few centers conti nued ani mal r esearch and human procedures duri ng the so-cal l ed bl ack years of cardi ac transpl antati on. The i ni ti al expl o- si on i n cl i ni cal tri al s accordi ngl y el i ci ted numer- ous responses suggesti ng that too much was bei ng attempted too soon. Some woul d propose that thi s was the pri ce of eventual success, and that further experi mental studi es at the ti me coul d not have avoi ded earl y Commentary Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996 65 Emerging Infectious Diseases l osses. And yet, there has been, and may al ways be, a taci t r ecogni ti on by medi cal i nnovators that the ul ti mate experi ment must be performed i n humans, for no ani mal model can trul y refl ect the human condi ti on. Proponents of al l otranspl anta- ti on at the ti me of the fi rst heart transpl antati on ci ted the more than 60-year hi story of experi men- tal cardi ac transpl antati on, begi nni ng wi th Car- rel s ori gi nal wor k i n 1905. Al though most of thi s work began i n the 1930s, subsequent i nvesti ga- ti ons regardi ng the experi mental transpl antati on of mammal i an hearts showed that cardi ac trans- pl antati on was techni cal l y feasi bl e and suggested the possi bi l i ty of cl i ni cal l y r el evant sur vi val rates. Duri ng the decade befor e Barnards fi rst cl i ni cal appl i cati on, cardi ac al l ograft survi val had been shown to exceed 250 days (mean 103 days) i n adul t dogs treated wi th an i mmunosuppressi ve regi men that i ncl uded azathi opri ne and methyl predni sone used i ntermi ttentl y. The mean survi val i n un- treated dogs used as control s was 7 days (11). Si nce that ti me, wi th further expansi on of knowl edge i n vi rtual l y al l areas of cl i ni cal cardi ac transpl antati on, 1-year survi val has i ncr eased from 67% i n 1976, to approxi matel y 85% reported currentl y at most hospi tal centers (3). Human reci pi ents have sur vi ved for as l ong as 20 years after transpl antati on, and the 10-year posttrans- pl ant survi val rate i s now approxi matel y 45% (12). Whi l e these fi gur es depi ct a cl ear i mpr ovement i n raw survi val , cardi ac transpl antati on i s sti l l not a cure for end-stage heart di sease. Reci pi ents must take i mmunosuppressi ve medi cati on for l i fe and be moni tored for i nfecti on, rejecti on, and graft arteri opathy. However, these r esul ts are i mpres- si ve consi deri ng that the reci pi ent popul ati on to- day i s consi derabl y si cker than earl i er al l ograft candi dates. I n l i ght of these fi ndi ngs, few woul d deny cardi ac al l otranspl antati on i ts present cl ai m to success. To further understand the evol uti on of thi s achi evement, however, we may now l ook back upon the earl y years of cardi ac al l otranspl an- tati on and try to address the pr oposed threefol d i nqui ry. Fi rst, for Barnard and co-workers what can we presume as success warranti ng advancement to the cl i ni cal arena? They performed the fi rst hu- man adul t cardi ac al l otranspl antati on when the maxi mum sur vi val i n i mmunosuppressed adul t dogs had been 250 days (average survi val 103 days) (11) and suggested that agai nst the back- gr ound of thi s r esearch . . . the ti me arri ved when a cardi ac transpl ant coul d be contempl ated wi th hope of success (7). I ndeed, i n thei r report of thi s case, they further descri bed the sci enti fi c basi s of thei r cl i ni cal advancement by expl ai ni ng that thi s achi evement di d not come as a surpri se to the medi cal worl d. Steady pr ogress toward thi s goal had been made by i mmunol ogi sts, bi ochem- i sts, sur geons, and speci al i sts i n other branches of medi cal sci ence al l over the worl d duri ng the past decades to ensure that thi s, the ul ti mate i n car- di ac sur gery, woul d be a success (7). Al though we may, i n retrospect, consi der them justi fi ed i n thei r decl arati on, i n fact, at that ti me the endeavor was hi ghl y controversi al and came as a sur pri se to much of the medi cal worl d. Second, under what condi ti ons di d they proceed wi th thi s cl i ni cal tri al ? Gi ven the hope of suc- cess, Barnard and col l eagues sel ected a pati ent consi der ed to have heart di sease of such severi ty that no method of therapy short of cardi ac trans- pl antati on coul d succeed (7). The pati ent, a 54- year -ol d man, had r emai ned i n i ntr actabl e congesti ve heart fai l ure (fol l owi ng mul ti pl e myo- cardi al i nfarcti ons) despi te al l medi cal manage- ment (13). Fi nal l y, i n thi s cl i ni cal arena, what defi ned for Barnard and col l eagues success warranti ng fur- ther i nvesti gati on? A concur rent edi tori al i n the South African Medical J ournal may provi de some i nsi ght i nto thei r thi nki ng: The cl ai m successful can be used even at thi s earl y stage because to- date i t i s a feat whi ch makes medi cal hi story, no matter how short the further survi val of the pa- ti ent mi ght be (4). Success, by such an anal ysi s, was thus not targeted posttranspl ant sur vi val ti me, but rather any posttranspl ant survi val ti me (gi ven the ground-breaki ng nature of the en- deavor). Further edi tori al s regardi ng the ethi cs of cardi ac transpl antati on vi ewed the pr ocedur e as a l egi ti mate experi ment but not a treatment (15), whi l e i n 1968, the Amer i can Col l ege of Cardi ol ogy suggested (wi th r egard to the success of al l o- transpl antati on) that resul ts vari ed: . . . the spec- tr um of succes s r anges fr om s hor t-ter m restorati on of ci rcul ati on to compl ete physi cal r e- covery (16). I ndeed, success di d vary al ong a spectrum of resul ts. Barnard and col l eagues fi rst al l otrans- pl ant reci pi ent l i ved for 18 days and ul ti matel y di ed of pneumoni a. However, thei r second r eci pi - ent, 1 month l ater, survi ved more than 19 months befor e dyi ng of chroni c rejecti on (17). Thei r thi rd Commentary Emerging Infectious Diseases 66 Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996 pati ent al so l i ved more than 20 months after al l o- transpl antati on and ul ti matel y di ed of carci noma of the stomach wi thout si gns of acute or chroni c rejecti on (18). One can onl y specul ate how di ffer- ent the worl d r ecepti on to al l otranspl antati on woul d have been had the l atter two pati ents rep- resented the fi rst and second reci pi ents of cardi ac al l otranspl ants. Woul d these survi val data be con- si dered success, or woul d they sti l l pal e i n com- pari son wi th the theor eti cal goal of obtai ni ng a graft that coul d functi on normal l y i ndefi ni tel y? Cl i ni cal cr oss-speci es transpl antati on dates to the ear l y twenti eth cen tu r y, wi th k i dney xenografts from rabbi t, pi g, goat, non-human pri - mate and l amb donors (19). After these earl y fai l - ur es, the sci enti fi c l i terature was l argel y devoi d of reports of cl i ni cal xenotranspl antati on for nearl y 40 years. I n 1963, Reemtsma and col l eagues descri bed si x human reci pi ents of chi mpanzee ki d- neys, the l ongest survi vor of whom di ed of causes unrel ated to r ejecti on 9 months after xenotrans- pl antati on (20). The fi rst car di ac xenotranspl antati on, per- formed by Hardy i n 1964, al so repr esented the fi rst attempt at cardi ac transpl antati on i n hu- mans, predati ng Barnards r eport by nearl y 4 years (1). Si nce 1964, when Hardy and col l eagues at the Uni versi ty of Mi ssi ssi ppi performed the worl ds fi rst heart xenotranspl ant usi ng a chi m- panzee as a donor, there have been ei ght docu- me n t e d a t t emp t s a t cl i n i ca l h e a r t x en o- transpl antati on. Fi ve of these donors wer e non- human pri mates (2 baboons, 3 chi mpanzees) and three were domesti cated farm ani mal s (1 sheep, 2 pi gs) (21-25). The l ongest survi vor was a newborn i nfant wi th hypopl asti c l eft heart syndrome. Baby Fae was the reci pi ent of an ABO-bl ood gr oup mi smatched baboon heart that functi oned for 20 days (26). However, by the ti me the fi rst human neonatal cardi ac xenotranspl antati on was performed by Bai l ey i n 1984 (the so-cal l ed Baby Fae case), there had been onl y l i mi ted experi - mental experi ence wi th prol onged graft sur vi val i n the newborn xenotranspl ant reci pi ent. Studi es presented by Bai l ey and co-workers shortl y before the Baby Fae case descri bed a mean sur vi val ti me of 72 days i n newborn l amb-to-goat xenotrans- pl ants, wi th one survi vor l i vi ng to 165 days (27). Thi s advancement of xenotranspl antati on i nto the cl i ni cal forum was met wi th resi stance i n the medi cal communi ty because of a percepti on that research wi th acceptabl e survi val success had not been achi eved experi mental l y. As Losman i n an edi tori al regardi ng the Baby Fae experi ence stated, I t appears that thi s baboon-to-i nfant transpl antati on di d not rest on such a [sci enti fi c] basi s [as di d Barnards earl i er operati on i n 1967] (28). Duri ng the past 3 years, i nvesti gators at the Uni versi ty of Pi ttsburgh reported two cases i n whi ch they transpl anted a baboon l i ver i nto a human reci pi ent, obtai ni ng a 70-day sur vi val i n thei r fi rst reported case, and a 26-day survi val i n the second (29; J.J. Fung, pers. comm.) The i nves- ti gators overwhel mi ng effort to prevent rejecti on l ed them to use a harsh i mmunosuppressi ve regi - men that permi tted mul ti pl e l i fe-thr eateni ng i nfecti ons. Rejecti on was not the major cl i ni cal obstacl e they encountered; ther efore, they r ecom- mended a more di rected and l ess arduous i mmu- nosuppressi ve regi men for future pati ents. More al armi ng have been the attempts to appl y xenotranspl antati on of di stantl y rel ated speci es to the cl i ni cal arena. I n 1968, both Cool ey and Ross transpl anted sheep and pi g hearts, r espec- ti vel y, i nto dyi ng human reci pi ents (30,31). Both grafts fai l ed upon reperfusi on, presumabl y be- cause of hyperacute r ejecti on. More recentl y, Czapl i cki and co-workers i n 1992 descri bed a case i n whi ch they attempted the xenotranspl antati on of a pi g heart i nto a human reci pi ent wi th Marfans syndrome (32). By thei r report, no evi dence of hyperacute rejecti on was present at the ti me of death nearl y 24 hours after xenotranspl antati on. Thei r pr otocol used an un- usual i mmunosuppressi ve regi men i n whi ch both donor and reci pi ent recei ved, i n addi ti on to con- venti onal i mmunosuppressi on, both thymi c ti ssue extracts and fetal cal f sera. Thi s regi men al so i ncl uded the extracor poreal per fusi on of two pi g hearts wi th the r eci pi ents bl ood i n an attempt to remove human anti -pi g anti bodi es before the or- thotopi c transpl antati on of the functi onal pi g heart (33). As astoni shi ng as thi s case may be i n i ts extensi on to the cl i ni cal arena of a techni que not yet shown to be effecti ve i n the experi mental l aboratory, i t i s not uni que. Al so i n 1992, Makowka and col l eagues transpl anted a pi g l i ver i nto a 26-year-ol d woman dyi ng of acute l i ver fai l ure from autoi mmune hepati ti s (pers. comm.). De- spi te the fact that, at present, i t appears unl i kel y that suffi ci ent success has been achi eved i n the l aborator y r egar di ng xenotranspl antati on be- tween di stantl y r el ated speci es to war r ant Commentary Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996 67 Emerging Infectious Diseases advancement to the cl i ni cal arena, these i nvesti - gators were abl e to obtai n approval from thei r hospi tal s ethi cs commi ttee and i nsti tuti onal r e- vi ew board to proceed wi th the cl i ni cal tri al . Most experts i n the fi el d of xenotranspl antati on share the opi ni on that pi g-to-human or gan transpl anta- ti on remai ns at l east 3 to 5 years fr om cl i ni cal tri al s. Consi derabl e advances i n the fi el d of cardi ac xenotranspl antati on have subsequentl y emerged worl dwi de si nce Hardys fi rst cl i ni cal attempt i n 1964, wi th a better understandi ng of the xenor e- jecti on process and a mor e sophi sti cated i nsi ght i nto mechani sms for i ts control . Extended graft survi val has been achi eved i n a number of di ffer- ent experi mental model s, i ncl udi ng a greater than tenfol d graft sur vi val i n non-human pri mates treated wi th conventi onal cycl ospori ne-based i m- munosuppr essi on (34,35) a mor e than thi rtyfol d i ncrease i n survi val over control s descri bed by Cel l i and col l eagues i n a rodent model (36), and survi val beyond 1 year r eported by Kawauchi and col l eagues i n a non-human pri mate model (37). These fi ndi ngs support the potenti al for achi evi ng cl i ni cal l y rel evant graft survi val i n humans. The questi on i s whether we have reached a stage i n l aborator y experi mentati on to justi fy fur- ther attempts at advanci ng cardi ac xenotrans- pl antati on to the cl i ni cal arena. I f we vi ew the current status of experi mental accompl i shments i n xenotranspl antati on wi th the same scruti ny as that of al l otranspl antati on at the ti me of Bar- nards endeavor, we are l eft wi th si mi l ar concl u- si ons; fi rst, comparabl e graft sur vi val ti me has been achi eved i n ani mal model s of xenotranspl an- tati on as was evi dent for al l otranspl antati on be- for e 1967. Second, wi th ou r cur r ent understandi ng of cardi ac al l otranspl antati on has al so come a greater awareness of i ts l i mi tati ons. Thus, the condi ti ons for the advancement of xenotranspl antati on arguabl y coul d be ful fi l l ed by a pati ent wi th end-stage heart di sease who i s a candi date for al l otranspl antati on, but for whom a donor cannot be i denti fi ed i n ti me. Fi nal l y, the cl i ni cal success of xenotranspl antati on mi ght al so be consi dered (as was the case for al l otrans- pl antati on) any graft survi val , and the goal of xenotranspl antati on to stri ve for extended graft survi val . However, pol i ti cal and sci enti fi c sensi bi l i ti es today cl earl y di ffer from those of the 1960s, and so the cri ti cal assessment of xenotranspl antati on must be mor e ri gorous than our previ ous di scus- si on. I ndeed, the above compari son was put forth l argel y to underscore the mor e humbl e ori gi ns of the (now) successful therapy (al l otranspl antati on) to whi ch xenotranspl antati on i s currentl y com- pared. What then defi nes success i n the l aboratory warranti ng advancement from the l aboratory to the operati ng room? Havi ng demonstrated dra- mati c prol ongati on of cardi ac xenograft sur vi val through experi ments i n r odent and non-human pri mate model s (27,34-37), whi ch model most cl osel y approxi mates the human condi ti on (and thus whi ch therapy wi l l be most successful i n avoi di ng cl i ni cal rejecti on) remai ns to be estab- l i shed. Therefore, i t i s reasonabl e to suggest both that we have reached a formi dabl e l i mi tati on for preci sel y predi cti ng the appl i cabi l i ty of experi - mental l aborator y evi dence and that answers may onl y be sought fr om experi ment i n humans. Thi s concept was real i zed by the Ameri can Medi cal Associ ati on wi th regard to al l otranspl antati on, i n reference to whi ch i t r el eased an offi ci al statement acknowl edgi ng thi s noti on i n 1969 (38). Concerns most commonl y voi ced wi th respect to the cl i ni cal appl i cati on of xenotranspl antati on, however, pertai n to a l arger ethi cal controversy regardi ng human experi mentati on. Reemtsma, i n a rel ated comment concerni ng the Baby Fae case, suggested the fol l owi ng: There i s a wi despr ead mi spercepti on that medi cal treatments and surgi - cal pr ocedur es are easi l y cl assi fi ed as ei ther ex- peri mental or accepted. I n fact, al l treatments have an el ement of experi mentati on, and new surgi cal procedures are based on extrapol ati ons from pri or wor k. . . . When does a surgeon deci de to appl y a new operati on to a pati ent? . . . the deci si on i s based on bal anci ng, on the one hand, the experi mental evi dence suggesti ng that the procedure may succeed, and, on the other, the cl i ni cal urgency. . . (39). Under what condi ti ons wi l l the cl i ni cal ad- vancement of xenotranspl antati on proceed? For those i ni ti al pati ents i n whom cl i ni cal xenotrans- pl antati on wi l l fi rst be appl i ed, cl i ni cal urgency, i n the compl ete absence of other sui tabl e al terna- ti ves, undoubtedl y wi l l r epresent the moti vati ng factor to proceed. Who wi l l compri se thi s i ni ti al cohort? As Capl an has poi nted out: There woul d appear to exi st a pool of termi nal l y i l l persons, both chi l dren and adul ts for whom no therapeuti c al ternati ves exi st or are l i kel y to exi st i n the near Commentary Emerging Infectious Diseases 68 Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996 future. . . . I t woul d [thus] appear ethi cal l y defen- si bl e to al l ow research i nvol vi ng xenografti ng i n human subjects to proceed i n those areas where no reasonabl e al ternati ve to therapy exi sts (40). I n thi s context, i nnumerabl e reservati ons have been voi ced regardi ng the ethi cs of pr oposi ng al - ternati ve experi mental therapi es to such pati ents for whom therapy has ei ther fai l ed or i s non-exi s- tent. However, wi th regard to cl i ni cal experi men- tati on under these ci rcumstances, one must al so recal l (as Shi mki n has suggested): To do nothi ng, or to prevent others from doi ng anythi ng, i s i tsel f a type of experi ment, for the preventi on of experi - mentati on i s tantamount to the assumpti on of responsi bi l i ty for an experi ment di fferent from the one proposed (41). What i s the goal of the cl i ni cal appl i cati on of xenotranspl antati on? The need for donor organs i rr efutabl y outwei ghs the r esources avai l abl e, and mechani cal devi ces and xenotranspl antati on have emerged as the two most pr omi si ng al ternati ves to al l ograft cardi ac repl acement. Mechani cal l eft ventri cul ar assi st devi ces (LVADs) have wi tnessed rel ati ve success as bri dges i n careful l y sel ected pati ents wi th heart fai l ure. (A bri dge i s a tempo- rary method of l i fe support desi gned to carry a pati ent i ndefi ni tel y unti l a human heart can be found and transpl anted. I t i s not a desti nati on therapy.) Cri teri a for LVADs excl ude pati ents wi th bi ven- tri cul ar fai l ur e, and (because of the rel ati vel y l arge si ze of the devi ce) pati ents wi th a total body surface area l ess than 1.5 square meters (~120 l b). Thus, many women and vi rtual l y al l chi l dren are not candi dates for mechani cal l eft ventri cul ar as- si stance. As has been the case for Food and Dr ug Admi ni strati on pr otocol s usi ng LVADs, proposed i nvesti gati ons i nvol vi ng bi ol ogi c assi st devi ces (xenografts), have sought to eval uate a short-term al ternati ve to al l otranspl antati on i n pati ents for whom a donor heart i s not i mmedi atel y avai l abl e, and death i s i mmi nent. Onl y candi dates who meet cri teri a for heart transpl antati on, but do not meet cri teri a for LVAD i nserti on, woul d be consi der ed for a heart xenobri dge. Si mi l ar cl i ni cal scenari os have been proposed for other sol i d organ trans- pl ants. Si nce they were fi rst i ntroduced by Cool ey i n 1969, temporary mechani cal ci rcul ator y sup- port devi ces have become cri ti cal l y useful tool s i n the therapeuti c armamentari um avai l abl e to pa- ti ents awai ti ng transpl antati on (42). Neverthe- l ess, at present, the wi despread appl i cati on of mechani cal ci rcul ator y support i s l i mi ted both by pati ent sel ecti on cri teri a and by the temporary nature of the devi ce. For excl uded pati ents, as wel l as many adul t mal e candi dates. For excl uded pa- ti ents, cardi ac xenotranspl antati on may be the onl y reasonabl e al ternati ve to cardi ac al l ograft repl acement. I nvesti gati ons i n cl i ni cal xenotranspl antati on have been accused of usi ng the gui se of [bei ng a] bri dge-to-transpl antati on to appear acceptabl e to I nsti tuti onal Research/Ethi cal Boards (5). How- ever, the use of xenografts (or mechani cal devi ces) sol el y as bri dges to al l otranspl antati on wi l l not i ncrease the donor pool , and, ther efore, successful permanent xenotranspl antati on must i tsel f be seen as the target for future cl i ni cal i nvesti ga- ti ons. The goal of these studi es i s thus not to engage, as Hasti l l o and Hess (5) woul d suggest, i n the prematur e use of unproven pr ocedur es i n fel l ow humans, but rather to i mpact posi ti vel y on the curr ent shortage of human donor organs (6). I n 1996, the cl i ni cal pi cture i s no l ess bl eak and the concl usi ons no l ess val i d. The questi on that remai ns i s not how but rather when xenotrans- pl antati on shoul d advance to the cl i ni cal arena. Most of the uncertai nti es sur roundi ng i ts ad- vancement wi l l onl y be answered by i ts undertak- i ng. I n the foreseeabl e futur e, cl i ni cal xenotrans- pl antati on may achi eve i ts targeted goal of ex- tended graft survi val . As was the case duri ng the ear l y y ear s of al l otr ans pl antati on, cl i ni cal xenotranspl antati on must persevere under the consi derati on of and often i n spi te of scruti ny by i ts most demandi ng cri ti cs, for whi l e success has a hundred fathers, fai l ure i s an orphan (43). Robert E. Michler Di r ector of Heart Transpl ant Servi ce Di vi si on of Cardi othoraci c Surgery, Col umbi a-Presbyteri an Medi cal Center, New York, NY, USA References 1. Hardy JD, Chavez CM, Kur rus FE, et al . Heart trans- pl antati on i n man: devel opmental studi es and r eport of a case. JAMA 1964;188:114-22. 2. Wi l son JD, et al ., edi tors. Harri sons Pri nci pl es of i n ter nal medi ci n e, twel fth edi ti on . New Yor k : McGraw-Hi l l , I nc., 1991:1495. 3. Al l an JS. Xenotranspl antati on at a cr ossroads: pr e- venti on vs. progress. Natur e 1996;2:18-21. 4. Mi chael s MG, Si mmons RL. Xenotranspl ant-associ - ated zoonoses. Transpl antati on 1994;57:1-7. 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Lyon Med 1969;222:585. 25. Barnard CN, Wi powi tz A, Losman JG. Heter otopi c cardi ac transpl antati on wi th a xenograft for assi s- tance of the l eft heart i n cardi ogeni c shock after car- di opul monary bypass. S Afr Med J 1977;52:1035. 26. Bai l ey LL, Nehl ensen Bannarel l a SL, Concepci on W, et al . Cardi ac xenotranspl antati on i n a neonate. JAMA 1985;254:3321-9. 27. Bai l ey LL, Jan J, Johnson W, Jol l ey WB. Orthotopi c cardi ac xenografti ng i n the newborn goat. J Thorac Cardi ovasc Surg 1985;89:242-7. 28. Losman JG. Heart transpl antati on i n a newbor n. J Heart Transpl ant 1984;4:10-1. 29. Starzl TE, Fung JJ, Tzaki s A, et al . Baboon-to-human l i ver transpl antati on. Lancet 1993;341:65-71. 30. Cool ey DA, Hal l man GL, Bl oodwel l RD, Nora JJ, Leachman RD. Human hear t transpl antati on: experi - ence wi th 12 cases. Am J Cardi ol 1968;22:804-10. 31. Ross DN. I n: Exper i ence wi th human heart transpl an- tati on. H. Shapi ro, edi tor. 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J Am Med Assoc 1969;207:1704-5. 39. Reemtsma K. Cl i ni cal urgency and medi a scruti ny. Hasti ngs Cent Rep 1985;15:10-1. 40. Capl an AL. Ethi cal i ssues rai sed by research i nvol vi ng xenografts. J Am Med Assoc 1985;254:3339-43. 41. Shi mki n. The probl em of experi mentati on on human abei ngs: the r esearch wor ker s poi nt of vi ew. I n: Edsal l G. A posi ti ve approach to the probl em of human experi - mentati on. Daedal us 1969;98:463-79. 42. Cool ey DA, Li otta D, Hal l man GL, Bl oodwel l RD, Leachman RD, Mi l am JD. Orthotopi c car di ac pr osthe- si s for two-staged cardi ac r epl acement. Am J Cardi ol . 1969;24:723-730. 43. Ci ano G. Come sempre, l a vi ttori a tr ova cento padri , e nessuno vuol e r i conoscere l i nsuccesso. (September 9, 1942). I n: Di ari o (The Di ano Di ari es) 1939-1943. Mi l an: Ri zzol i , 1946:594. Commentary Emerging Infectious Diseases 70 Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March 1996