Blackmail in the

Bufer Zone
The U.S. needs Turkey to join the fght against the
Islamic State. But Turkey won't do it without dragging
the U.S. deeper into Syria's civil war.

BY !T" B#!$$"$%&'T&B"# ()* +,(-
The .hite /ouse and its allies are pressing Turkey to join the
military fght against the sel0%proclaimed Islamic State as the terrorist
organi1ation continues fghting 0or a complete con2uest o0 the Syrian
3order town o0 o3ani. But Turkey has drawn a line in the sand4 Unless the
United States and its coalition partners create a 53u6er 1one5 along the
Syrian%Turkish 3order* it's planning to sit this one out.
The &3ama administration appears to 3e moving closer to accepting
!nkara's demand. Secretary o0 State 7ohn erry said last week that creating
a 3u6er 1one was an idea worth e8amining. &n Sunday* 9en. :artin
;empsey* the chairman o0 the 7oint 'hie0s o0 Sta6* told !B''sThis Week that
he anticipated that 5there could 3e circumstances in the 0uture where that
would 3e part o0 the campaign.5
'apitol /ill is also stepping up its pressure on the &3ama administration.
:ichigan's 'arl <evin* the ;emocratic chairman o0 the Senate !rmed
Services 'ommittee* said .ednesday that he 3elieved the United States
should 5seek to esta3lish a delineated 3u6er 1one along the Turkish 3order
to protect civilians* secured 3y Turkish 3oots on the ground and protected
3y a coalition no%=y 1one.5
.hen asked at the State ;epartment on .ednesday a3out the possi3ility o0
creating a 3u6er 1one* retired 9en. 7ohn !llen* the U.S. special envoy 0or
the anti%Islamic State coalition* said the allies would 5consider all means
necessary to provide5 0or the Syrian re3el 0orce it plans to train to fght the
Islamic State* which is also known as ISIS and ISI<.
5I think it's too early to tell specifcally with regard to a term or an e6ect*5
he said.
:eanwhile* Turkey indicated it might o6er more support to the
fght*agreeing late last week that it would 3e willing to allow the training o0
at least +*,,, Syrian opposition fghters on Turkish soil. U.S. o>cials said
Turkey had also agreed to allow the United States to use Incirlik !ir Base in
southern Turkey to launch attacks against the Islamic militant group* 3ut
Turkey 2uickly denied these reports* and continued to push 0or a no%=y 1one
3e0ore it got any 0urther involved.
The de3ate around creating a 3u6er 1one or a no%=y 1one is a complicated
one 0or the .hite /ouse 3ecause at its heart is the more 0undamental
2uestion o0 whether the United States wants to con0ront Syrian ?resident
Bashar al%!ssad directly.
'reating a no%=y 1one along the Syrian%Turkish 3order that could serve as a
re0uge 0or civilians =eeing the Islamic State and a training ground 0or
mem3ers o0 the Syrian opposition would most likely mean taking out Syrian
air de0ense systems and possi3ly taking on its air 0orce. That could result in
signifcant num3ers o0 Syrian military 0atalities %% and potentially !merican
ones.
That type o0 fght would also run the risk o0 setting 3ack the fght against
the Islamic State* as the United States and its coalition mem3ers would
essentially 3e fghting a war on two 0ronts. The Syrian military has not
inter0ered with U.S. airstrikes against terrorist targets in eastern and
northern Syria* 3ut that could change i0 U.S. airplanes also start 3om3ing
Syrian targets.
5It's not a de3ate simply over a no%=y 1one. It's a de3ate over whether
Turkey can push the U.S. and other mem3ers o0 the coalition into 0ocusing
on !ssad directly* as well as on the Islamic State*5 said !nthony
'ordesman* a national security analyst at the 'enter 0or Strategic and
International Studies.
The de3ate is 0urther complicated 3ecause di6erent o>cials mean di6erent
things when they throw around the terms 53u6er 1one5 and 5no%=y 1one.5
There could 3e a scenario where !ssad tacitly allows the creation o0 a 3u6er
1one %% perhaps presented as a humanitarian corridor %% to avoid picking a
fght with the United States. In that circumstance* 'ordesman said* 5You
don't have to =y constant com3at air patrols and 3e ready to suppress land%
3ased sur0ace%to%air missiles on short notice.5
&n the other end o0 the spectrum is a classic no%=y 1one* which re2uires an
up0ront 3om3ing campaign against Syrian air de0ense systems and related
targets as well as continuing operations designed to shoot down any Syrian
helicopters or warplanes that =y into the protected area.
#etired 9en. 'arter /am* who until !pril +,(@ served as head o0 U.S. !0rica
'ommand* has warned that creating a no%=y 1one is a 5violent com3at
action that results in lots o0 casualties and increased risk to our own
personnel.
5.e should make no 3ones a3out it4 It frst entails killing a lot o0 people and
destroying the Syrian air de0enses and those people who are manning those
systems. !nd then it entails destroying the Syrian air 0orce* pre0era3ly on
the ground* in the air i0 necessary*5 he said on 'BS'sFace the Nation Sept.
+A.
The longest%lasting no%=y 1one en0orced 3y the United States was in Ira2
0ollowing the ?ersian 9ul0 .ar. Borces 0rom the United States* the United
ingdom* and Brance en0orced it over northern Ira2 0rom (CC( to +,,@ to
protect the urdish population there 0rom attacks 3y the Ira2i military. !
separate no%=y 1one was maintained in southern Ira2 to protect the Shiite
population 0rom retaliation 3y the Ira2i military. It cost the U.S. government
roughly DE,, million a year to maintain the southern no%=y 1one in
Ira2* according to the 'ongressional #esearch Service. Both missions
involved 5constant patrols over a relatively large geographic area*
punctuated 3y occasional strikes against Ira2i air de0ense sites.5
;empsey laid out his own concerns a3out creating a new no%=y 1one* this
time in Syria* last summer in a letter to <evin.
<ike /am* ;empsey descri3ed a risky operation that came with major costs*
including the loss o0 U.S. aircra0t* which would re2uire the military to send in
personnel recovery 0orces.
5.e would re2uire hundreds o0 ground and sea%3ased aircra0t* intelligence
and electronic war0are support* and ena3lers 0or re0ueling and
communications*5 ;empsey said then.
/e estimated that it would cost D),, million initially* and average as much
as D( 3illion per month over the course o0 a year.
;empsey also laid out the costs and 3enefts o0 a 3u6er 1one along the
3order with Turkey or 7ordan* saying it would re2uire a limited no%=y 1one.
The risks o0 a 3u6er 1one 5are similar to the no%=y 1one with the added
pro3lem o0 regime sur0ace fres into the 1ones* killing more re0ugees due to
their concentration*5 he said.
/owever* the de3ate last summer was not 0ocused on the Islamic State*
which wasn't on anyone's radar* and instead 0ocused on what could 3e
done to aid the Syrian re3els in their fght against !ssad. Since then* the
United States and coalition mem3ers have =own daily airstrikes in Syria 0or
more than three weeks with no inter0erence 0rom the Syrian military.
But even i0 a potential 3u6er 1one is not used to support an e6ort to
counter !ssad* the United States and its allies would 0eel compelled to limit
the risk to its pilots and aircra0t and would there0ore need to 3e sure Syrian
air de0ense systems were una3le to target them* said "li1a3eth Fuintana*
who runs the !ir ?ower and Technology program at the #oyal United
Services Institute in <ondon.
;uring operations in <i3ya in +,((* the amount o0 frepower used was much
greater than the threat posed 3y the <i3yan air de0enses* which were not
particularly sophisticated* Fuintana said. But 3ecause it was a
5discretionary operation*5 the threshold 0or risk was much lower.
The United States and its allies used Tomahawk missiles to take out any air
de0ense systems and the air command and control nodes* even when they
were de0unct* she said. 5U.S. and allied 0orces wanted to 3e a3solutely sure
that they weren't going to pose a threat.5
She said the same circumstances pertain to Syria* where military and
political leaders would not want to risk losing U.S. personnel or aircra0t.
But unlike <i3ya* Syria has sophisticated #ussian%made air de0ense systems*
mostly in and around ;amascus and along the country's western 3order*
Fuintana said.
The ?entagon has said those systems have 3een 5passive5 during the last
0ew weeks o0 airstrikes against Islamic State targets in eastern and northern
Syria.
But the U.S. !ir Borce took no chances when it targeted !leppo* 0arther
west. Bor that operation* it used its stealth jet* the B%++ #aptor* a com3at
de3ut 0or the aircra0t.
5I'm sure it was in part to get in and out o0 !leppo without 3eing targeted*
3ut also to send a message to Syrian and #ussian o>cials to say they could
use B%++s with impunity over #ussian Gsur0ace%to%air%missilesH*5 Fuintana
said.
Posted by Thavam