40 Rice Today October-December 2014

Scientists at the International

Center for Tropical Agriculture
(CIAT) are crunching big data to
avoid great economic losses for
rice growers
C
GIAR scientists wielding
big data tools to blunt the
impacts of climate change
on Latin Americas rice
production have been named one of
two winners of the Big Data Climate
Challenge at the recent United
Nations Climate Summit held in New
York City, U.S.A. The other winner
was the World Resource Institutes
Global Forest Watch.
The challenge was launched
in May by the Global Pulsea UN
initiative created to harness big data,
as a public good, for sustainable
developmenttogether with the
Secretary-Generals Climate Change
Team. The initiative aims to address
climate change by sourcing the best
ideas in the world to strengthen the
case for climate action.
Making agroecosystems more
resilient in the face of climate change
was also a key theme of the CGIAR
Development Dialogues, which took
place alongside UN deliberations
on climate change and on the
Sustainable Development Goals.
From analysis to action
Climate action is what Colombian
rice farmers desperately need, as
seemingly crazy weathersubtle
shifts in rainfall plus more extreme
climate eventsforces them to toss
aside familiar assumptions on when
and what to plant. In the last 5 years,
emerging climate change impacts
have already driven down yields of
irrigated rice from an average of 6
tons per hectare to 5 tons, according
to FEDEARROZ, the national rice
growers association.
At stake is the ability of
Colombias rice sector to remain
competitivecatering to its own
consumers while also trying to
Harnessing
big data
for climate
change
by Nathan Russell
CIAT's award-winning data crunchers:
(From left above) Mara Camila Rebolledo, Daniel Jimnez,
Vctor Hugo Patio, Juan Felipe Rodrguez.
(From left below) Hugo Andrs Dorado, Sylvain Delerce.
C
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41 Rice Today October-December 2014
generate export earningsunder the
countrys new trade liberalization
policies. Climate change also poses
a broader threat to Latin Americas
ability to reap its enormous potential
as an export-centered granary for the
rapidly growing global population.
To atack the immediate problem
faced by Colombian rice growers,
scientists at CIAT analyzed mounds
of data in close collaboration with
FEDEARROZ. The association
conducts an annual rice survey,
maintains a harvest monitoring
dataset, and recently carried out
experiments on rice sowing date.
Researchers also tapped into
streams of weather data collected
by FEDEARROZ and the Colombian
Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology,
and Environmental Studies.
Then came the fun part for
geeky data crunchers: using various
data-mining techniques (with names
such as artifcial neural network
and dynamic time warp), they
analyzed all these data and came up
with some prety straightforward
conclusions.
Through a case study, we
observed that the big climate factor
limiting yields in some areas is
accumulated solar energy during
the grain ripening phase, said
CIAT researcher Daniel Jimnez.
To ensure that crops get optimum
radiation, farmers can shift the
sowing date, and to further reduce
yield losses, they can adopt rice
varieties that are less sensitive to the
amount of radiation received.
This fnding coincides with
the results of many years of feld
research. But the diference is that
the big data reached this conclusion
in just one year and ofers the
possibility of linking it with climate
data analysis to provide farmers
with timely and site-specifc
recommendations.
Putting big data to work
The approach seems to be working.
Your analysis was very helpful for
discussing possible climate change
impacts with the farmers; we were
able to avoid big economic losses
for about 170 rice growers on 1,800
hectares, said Patricia Guzmn,
who leads FEDEARROZs technical
department, in an email reporting on
feld testing of the recommendations
in Colombias Crdoba Department.
In another case study, the
analysis of historical weather data
revealed that a diverse set of distinct
climate paterns occurring over the
years in Meta Department, a major
upland rice area, is clearly associated
with growing conditions that are
favorable or not for production. This
means that, based on seasonal climate
forecasts made with advanced
simulation tools, researchers can give
farmers reliable recommendations
about the appropriate planting date
and rice variety months in advance,
helping them to avoid losses of
12 tons per hectare, Dr. Jimnez
explained.
He and Sylvain Delerce, an award
co-winner, are part of CIATs crop
and climate modeling team.Their
work on rice forms part of a major
initiative on climate change, carried
out by CIAT in partnership with
Colombias Ministry of Agriculture
and Rural Development, which
generously supports the work.
The skys the limit
The scope of the big data approach
seems limitless: As we get
more and more data, well soon
be able to develop site-specifc
recommendations for every rice-
producing area in Colombia, said
Dr. Jimnez. This information should
also prove valuable for rice breeders,
beter enabling them to develop new
lines that are adapted to a changing
climate.
Further research will incorporate
data on soils and other factors
into the new tools to increase their
explanatory power. CIAT researchers
will also work with the Fund for
Irrigated Rice in Latin America
(FLAR) to scale up the approach with
rice growers associations in other
countries, starting with Nicaragua
and Peru.
The organizers of the Big Data
Climate Challenge referred to
the CGIAR work as a uniquely
innovative project that uses big data
to drive climate action.
Climate change obligates us to
manage our food systems in a more
dynamic way, and big data ofers
the most efective way to achieve
this, said award co-winner Andy
Jarvis, who is director of CIATs
Policy Analysis (DAPA) Research
Area. Like the hoe and spade,
these new tools are becoming
crucial implements for global food
production.
Mr. Russell is the head of Communications
and Knowledge Management at CIAT.