University of Utah and Western Political Science Association are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Western Political Quarterly. During at least two of the three years of democratic socialist government, however, Chile faced severe economic and political crises. After the 1973 elections, opposition elements turned increasingly to illegal and conspiration activities, culminating in Allende's ouster and death at the hands of a coalition of anti-marxist military forces.
University of Utah and Western Political Science Association are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Western Political Quarterly. During at least two of the three years of democratic socialist government, however, Chile faced severe economic and political crises. After the 1973 elections, opposition elements turned increasingly to illegal and conspiration activities, culminating in Allende's ouster and death at the hands of a coalition of anti-marxist military forces.
University of Utah and Western Political Science Association are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Western Political Quarterly. During at least two of the three years of democratic socialist government, however, Chile faced severe economic and political crises. After the 1973 elections, opposition elements turned increasingly to illegal and conspiration activities, culminating in Allende's ouster and death at the hands of a coalition of anti-marxist military forces.
Chile's Democratic Road to Socialism Author(s): Michael H. Fleet Source: The Western Political Quarterly, Vol. 26, No. 4 (Dec., 1973), pp. 766-786 Published by: University of Utah on behalf of the Western Political Science Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/447149 . Accessed: 07/10/2014 12:56 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. . University of Utah and Western Political Science Association are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Western Political Quarterly. http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM MICHAEL H. FLEET University of Southern California N NOVEMBER 1970, Marxist socialist Salvador Allende took office as Presi- dent of Chile, vowing to bring about revolutionary change by working within, and not against, the country's constitutional democratic tradition. Through its skillful use of powerful executive prerogatives, Allende's Popular Unity (UP) government brought a major part of Chile's economy under state control. In addi- tion, it nationalized the country's once foreign-owned copper mines, eliminated its latifundia, and secured important material benefits for popular and working-class groups. During at least two of the three years of democratic Marxist government, how- ever, Chile faced severe economic and political crises. For most of this time it was divided into mutually hostile camps. Following the March 1973 elections, opposi- tion elements turned increasingly to illegal and conspiratorial activities. These culminated on September 11 with Allende's ouster and death at the hands of a coalition of anti-Marxist military forces.' In most Latin American countries, such an outcome would have been pre- dictable. The rise to power by leftist or reformist forces, their subsequent efforts to alter socio-economic structures, and finally their overthrow by those favoring the status quo, form a sequence of events quite familiar to the area. But Chile's political culture, institutional tradition, and past political experience make it unique among its sister republics. This distinctiveness initially made the experi- ment in democratic socialism possible, enabled Allende to survive very serious diffi- culties, and until the coup offered the world a remarkably institutionalized version of class struggle. In analyzing Allende's democratic road to socialism, this article first reviews the major economic and political developments under the Popular Unity Govern- ment. It then examines the constitutional conflict between executive and legislative branches as a representative expression of the political struggle under Allende. And finally it considers the causes, and possible consequences of Allende's overthrow. DEVELOPMENTS TO MID-1973 In an era of increasing recourse to political authoritarianism, the Popular Unity commitment to democratic politics stands out rather noticeably. It becomes less puzzling, however, if one considers that most UP leaders have spent their entire political lives within a democratic political order, and as such are ill-equipped for, and perhaps ill-disposed toward, other forms of political struggle. In addition, most Marxists were agreed that extra-constitutional methods would lead to disaster (civil war, military intervention, counter-revolution, etc.), and (more positively) that 'This article was written in July 1973, and revised in early October. 766 This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM 767 the country's powerful presidentialist constitution provided sufficient authority to overcome resistance to their objectives.2 Two additional assumptions were central to Allende's strategy once he took office. The first was that revolution was essentially a process of structural trans- formation, and not of economic growth or development. The second was that success of efforts at structural change would depend on the development of a popu- lar or working-class political majority, and that at least in the short run this was incompatible with conventional economic rationality. Both assumptions are summed up in the following remarks of Pedro Vuskovic, Allende's first Minister of Economics. "Revolutionary change is a problem of power, a question between social forces, to which economic policy is to be subordinated, which economic policy must serve as an instrument for strengthening and consolidating the power position of the workers."3 In the view of UP strategists, the preceding Frei administration's preference for "rational" economic measures4 had led to an erosion of both its political sup- port and whatever commitment it had to structural change. Accordingly, they chose to move immediately to restructure power relations, creating a fait accompli to which the country's various economic interests would have to adjust. This, together with measures bringing short-term benefits to the popular sector, would hopefully assure a political base from which to ask later for necessary material sacrifices. In adopting this strategy Allende was taking a calculated risk. Measures favor- able to the popular classes might well stimulate production through increased de- mand. But over the long run the burden of government policies would have to be borne by the country's middle sectors, long the controlling element in national poli- tics. In various and sundry ways income redistribution, price controls, import re- strictions, deficit spending, and hostility to private enterprise, for example, would sooner or later impinge upon merchants, farmers, professionals, small businessmen, and middle-class consumers and taxpayers generally.5 The middle sectors thus * For a brilliant defense of the compatibility of constitutional democratic politics and revolu- tionary objectives, see Joan E. Garces, El Caso Toha (Santiago: Editorial Universi- taria), 1972, especially Chapter 1. Professor Garces was one of President Allende's princi- pal political advisors. Certain leftist elements, most notably the Movimiento de Izquierda Revolucionaria (or MIR) and a segment of Allende's own Socialist Party, have of course been openly critical of constitutional politics. Though initially a very distinct minority, their numbers and importance would almost certainly grow if Allende were blocked in his pursuit of revolutionary objectives. ' As quoted in "La Fracasada Revolucion del Ministro Vuskovic" (anonymous), in El Mer- curio (Edicion Internacional), Semana del 13 al 19 de diciembre de 1971, p. 2. * One man's economic rationality obviously may not be another's, but the idea as used here is of measures and policies which given existing conditions and expectations are likely to result in greater levels of investment, production, efficiency, technological sophistica- tion, and financial solvency. These concerns are given top priority, and matters such as immediate working-class interests or structural changes are subordinated and condi- tioned to them. SAlso seeming to help the lower classes at the expense of middle-class groups was the elimina- tion of the legal distinction between obreros (workers and laborers) and empleados (employees). The latter were essentially white-collar workers, and were both better paid and given superior fringe benefits. UP policy reduced pay differentials and completely eliminated differences in fringe benefits, much to the dismay of many status conscious empleados. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 768 THE WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY posed a serious problem for Allende; indeed, in view of their traditional political power, perhaps his most serious one. Accordingly, unless or until popular elements were in control of the political arena, Allende would have to hope that economic conditions for the middle sectors would not deteriorate too rapidly, that political forces representing them would remain divided, and that in any event the middle class would retain its traditionally constitutional political inclinations. Initially, the government did well in all respects. During 1971, for example, the economy actually seemed to be flourishing: gross geographic product was up over 8 percent, industrial production 12 percent, and overall domestic consumption 13 percent; while unemployment was down over 50 percent and inflation had been held to 22 percent." Moreover, Allende moved rapidly ahead with his social objectives. Most importantly perhaps, politically if not also economically, remaining U.S. copper interests were nationalized. In addition, significant strides were made in income redistribution, government services (public housing, education, medical care, etc.), and agrarian reform.' And finally, the country's major banks were nationalized (giving the government direct control over credit), while expropriations, requisi- tions, and interventions raised direct state control of domestic industry to over 25 percent of the total.8 These various achievements helped provide the UP with initially favorable political weather.9 During the first six months of the year, only the rightist National party was consistently critical of the government. The Christian Democrats, on the other hand, seemed uncertain as to how to proceed. They had long been distrustful of Marxism and Marxists, and yet much of what the government was doing con- sisted of things which they themselves had formally advocated. In this situation, the best the party could manage was a policy of "critical support," by which it backed selected government policies. Unfortunately for the UP, this fair economic and political weather did not last. Even during 1971, in fact, there were signs of serious problems ahead. The money supply was far outrunning increases in productivity, overall investment was off, previously idle industrial capacity was rapidly being exhausted, and foreign exchange reserves were dwindling fast. Under these circumstances steadily increas- ing demand could not be met, and both scarcity and inflation were inevitable. 6 These figures are taken from Comentarios sobre la Situacion Economica, Primer Semestre, 1972 (Santiago: Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, Universidad de Chile, 1972), pp. 1-13. According to official statistics, participation in total geographic income by salaried or wage labor rose from 53.7 to 58.6 percent. Cf. ibid., p. 217. With respect to agrarian reform, an estimated 5.3 million hectares were expropriated during the first twenty months of the Allende administration, this compared to 3.6 million previously expropriated by the Alessandri and Frei administrations. See Gonzalo Arroyo, S.J., "Despues del Latifundio, Que?" in Mensaje (a Santiago monthly), Vol. XXI, no. 213 (Octubre 1972), p. 591. " See below, pp. 772-73, for a discussion of the various legal measures used to bring industries under state control. The nationalizations were often associated with worker demands (and/or government promises) for greater worker participation in the factory's decision- making process. Very impressive progress in this area seems to have been made, particu- larly in the textile industry. ' Although Allende had garnered only 36 percent of the presidential vote, government parties won almost 50 percent in municipal elections the following April. Part of the jump no doubt was due to the effects of the traditional postelection "honeymoon" period. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM 769 Developments since late 1971 have borne these projections out. During 1972, both GGP and industrial growth rates fell sharply.'" Moreover, inflation raced completely out of control, reaching the almost incredible rate of 162 percent for the year. And finally, scarcity and irregular availability of a number of basic consumer goods also developed. Natural gas (for cooking and heating), sugar, meat, milk, rice, cooking oil, thread, and certain kinds of clothing were difficult, if not impossi- ble, to find at various times of the year. These deteriorating economic conditions were probably responsible for the government's loss of some of its initial support. By this time, however, the Christian Democrats had moved into full-fledged opposition, in virtual alliance with the Partido Nacional, and less it would seem because of the state of the economy than because of the continuing pace of nationalizations."1 The Christian Democrats themselves cited UP "sectarianism and totalitarianism" as forcing such a move, but the party's shift would seem more realistically explained as an effort to retain its large middle-class constituency (whose concern for its social status and economic interests had begun to make conservative National views more appealing) .12 In any event, the two parties joined forces for an August 1971 special election, and since then have jointly challenged. the government in elections, through counter- legislation and censure motions in the Congress, and with massive public rallies and demonstrations. In June 1972, the government attempted to arrest the continuing economic decline, and at the same time allay middle sector apprehensions concerning the scope, pace, and social costs of change. With well over half the country's major enterprises already under direct state control, Communist deputy Orlando Millas replaced Vuskovic as chief architect of government policy. Under Millas the pace of nationalizations appeared to slacken, and emphasis was placed on "consolidating" the process of revolutionary transformation.'3 Sharp price increases for basic con- sumption items were authorized, in the hope that more rational price structures would encourage production and limit demand. And Allende began to speak 10 Gross geographic production increased during 1972 by only 4 percent, while the industrial growth rate fell to 3 percent. See Victor Vacarro G., "La Situacion Economica: Un Examen Politico," in Chile Hoy (a Santiago weekly), no. 37, Semana del 23 de febrero al 1 de marzo de 1973, p. 16. a The PDC's decision was taken in July 1971, several months before economic conditions began to decline, but immediately after a series of key banks and industries were nation- alized and proposals creating "people's courts" and a single "people's assembly" were sent to the Congress. The alliance with the Nationals was strenuously objected to by left-wing Christian Democrats, many of whom shortly left the party to form the Izquierda Cristiana. " Recent scholarship has suggested that the middle class is often one of the principal obstacles to social and economic changes because of its concern for relative status and security. See, for example, Osvaldo Sunkel, "Frustration and Change in Chile," in Claudio Veliz, ed., Obstacles to Change in Latin America (New York: Oxford University Press), 1967. " This was the policy officially advocated by the Communist party. Ever cautious and judi- cious, the Communists were concerned about the disaffection that pressing ahead might produce among "potentially sympathetic" middle-class groups. Millas' very important essay "La Clase Obrera en las Condiciones del Gobierno Popular" (El Siglo, 5 de Junio, 1972) contains the party's critique of UP policy to that point. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 770 THE WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY earnestly of the need for working-class sacrifices, particularly in the area of wage demands.14 By this time, however, the middle sectors had already been lost. Moreover, it does not appear that the Millas policies had brought any immediate improve- ment in the country's economic situation. Indeed, conditions remained unfavor- able, and even deteriorated further. Inflation, for example, continued unchecked. Moreover, many basic consumer items were available only irregularly, and when they were, required one to rise early and stand long hours in line. In this connec- tion, rationing was introduced in limited form and would have been much more extensive had there not been intense opposition resistance?5 The future, unfortu- nately, did not look much brighter. Domestic capital accumulation and investment remained low, and apparently could not rise without further limitation of general consumption. And an upturn in the country's foreign exchange picture, which would permit increased importation of necessary capital and consumer goods, appeared unlikely.16 Despite these extremely adverse conditions, the UP managed to retain con- siderable political support. Following its initial upsurge, the government's per- centage leveled around 45 percent, where it held during the last year. The other side of the coin, however, is that the opposition also remained strong, and indeed appeared more resolved with time. During 1971 and 1972 in fact, Nationals and Christian Democrats attempted to challenge Allende's power directly, and pro- voked a serious constitutional crisis. In late 1971, Christian Democratic representatives proposed a constitutional amendment which expressly forbade the nationalization of private industries with- out congressional approval. Its passage would block further government takeovers, and could force the return (to private hands) of temporarily nationalized indus- tries. As such, it was a clear attack at the heart of the government's democratic road to socialism. A showdown on the matter was indefinitely postponed, however, in part thanks to several sustained efforts at compromise, and in part because of the advent 4 At the same time, though less prominently, Millas and Allende also warned that those who were better off (i.e., the middle and upper classes) would be asked for proportionately larger sacrifices. Over the next several months, in fact, the government proposed new taxes, luxury scale price levels (for such things as automobiles, gasoline, televisions, and international air travel), differential utility rates, and discriminatory cost-of-living wage increases. 1Local neighborhood committees known as JAPs (Juntas de Abastecimiento y Control de Precios) were at the center of the controversy surrounding rationing. Nationals and Christian Democrats opposed them on grounds that they were politically discriminatory and that they unwarrentedly superceded legitimately established merchants. The govern- ment, on the other hand, insisted that these committees were spontaneous expressions of local interests, and that they were urgently needed to combat speculation, stock-piling, and other abuses engaged in by distributors and retailers. '8 It is in the area of foreign exchange where the effects of U.S. policy against granting Chile either bilatereal or multilateral credits were most directly felt. In this regard see NACLA's "Facing the Blockade" in U.S. Latin America and Empire Report. Vol. VII, no. 1 (January 1973). In addition, the world market price for copper, Chile's principal foreign exchange earner, was far below levels prevailing during the previous administra- tion. Since nationalization, production levels did increase, but did not meet projected levels because of administrative and labor problems. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM 771 of more immediately pressing concerns. The first of these concerns was the nation- wide anti-government strike during October and November 1972; and the second was the holding of congressional elections in March 1973. Both events affected the country's politics in important ways. The strike lasted almost a month, making already difficult economic condi- tions even more trying, and raising the specter of civil war. In the end, however, the opposition failed to achieve its basic objectives and the government emerged with its overall standing enhanced. Shortly thereafter came the March elections, which gave victory to the oppo- sition by a 54.7 to 43.4 percent margin. Given preelection expectations of a much larger opposition vote, however, the results were actually more encouraging to the government. Moreover, with the opposition failing to win two-thirds of the seats in the Senate, Allende was safe from impeachment, and thus at least constitutionally assured of finishing out his term.17 Following the elections, tensions increased markedly as opposition groups searched for ways to deal with an evidently strengthened Allende government. The constitutional amendment issue was reactivated, and efforts were undertaken to challenge the UP on specific questions at the grass-roots organizational level. For his part, Allende continued ahead with his program: Additional industries were nationalized and initial steps to reduce private control of the wholesale and retail distribution system were taken."8 These moves helped sustain, if not increase, gen- eral tension. To this point, Chilean politics had been able to deal, or at least cope, with enormous pressures and difficulties. This hardly assured, however, that they would continue to do so. And indeed, many were seriously questioning whether Chile's democratic institutions could long endure existing levels of conflict, to say nothing of greater levels in the future. Whatever its subsequent fate, however, the Chilean experience was already a unique phenomenon, one in which certain cultural and institutional characteristics played an extremely important role. To provide a better understanding of these characteristics, and of the Chilean experience in general, I will present them as they operated in the context of the constitutional crisis of 1971-72. The crisis provides a veritable microcosm of Chilean political life, and offers ample insight into the political tradition to which class struggle and conflict in Chile were forced to adjust. In this same fashion the constitutional crisis may also help place subsequent developments in proper context. Although in this regard it will also be necessary to look more closely at the implications of both the October strike and March elections. '1 The final results gave the opposition 87 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 30 in the Senate, while the government held 63 and 20 respectively. 18The government utilized the neighborhood JAPs and a newly created government dis- tributing agency (DINAC) in an attempt to assure a steady supply of essential goods to those who most need them, and to prevent what it alleged had been systematic hoarding by wholesalers and merchants to create artificial shortages. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 772 THE WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY THE CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS During its three years in office, the Popular Unity government generally kept its promise of pursuing socialist objectives through constitutional democratic meth- ods. In effect confirming this, opposition forces attempted to block further sociali- zation of the economy by reducing presidential power under the constitution. A major crisis quickly arose, and at the time of the coup was unresolved. Its practical significance, and the way in which it was dealt with, offer valuable insight into both Chilean political tradition and the Chilean road to socialism. In assuming the presidency, Allende faced the problem of how to proceed in the nationalization of the country's economy. There was no industrial counterpart of existing agrarian reform legislation. And Popular Unity forces controlled only 40 percent of the seats in Congress, the government body normally responsible for formulating new laws. True, the Chilean presidency was endowed with substantial legislative powers, growing out of the executive's rather extensive veto powers."1 But these could only be exercised once a majority of the Congress agreed to consider legislation in the general area, and thus could be neutralized by a hostile legislative majority. In their search of constitutional nooks and crannies, however, government lawyers discovered a number of little-known but powerful executive prerogatives.20 One of these was Decree-Law 520, first promulgated in 1932 (under the short-lived Socialist Republic), and later reaffirmed and expanded by laws in 1953 and 1966. It authorized executive expropriation of any firm producing or distributing essen- tial goods, but currently shut down, otherwise unable or unwilling to maintain re- quired production levels, or guilty of speculation. Another instrument available to Allende was the authority of the country's national development corporation (CORFO) to enter into any area or activity within the national economy, declaring privately held stock subject to government purchase, and taking over actual operations. And finally, laws of Internal State Security authorized temporary government intervention and control of vital industries paralyzed because of labor disputes, while the national Office for Industry and Commerce (DIRINCO) could similarly intervene in and assume control of the distribution or retailing of items of basic necessity. All of these executive prerogatives were subject to judicial review by the Contraloria General de la Republica. Even if the Contraloria were to find a par- ticular measure or act unconstitutional, however, it could be overridden by means 1 The president's legislative powers are not specifically mentioned in the constitution, but rather grow out of his enormous veto powers. The Chilean president's veto can be sus- pensive, substitutive, or additive. This enables him, once a majority of the Congress agrees to legislate in a given area, to modify the final version of any bill virtually at will. His veto may be overridden, and the bill's original version restored, only by a vote of two thirds of the membership of both houses. The President is thus often able to legislate with only a "negative majority," i.e., with the support of one-third plus one of the mem- bers of the Congress. See Constitution of the Republic of Chile, 1925 (Washington, D.C.: Pan American Union, 1962), pp. 13-15. 0 My discussion of presidential powers is drawn from Eduardo Novoa M., "Vias Legales para Avanzar hacia el Socialismo," in Mensaje, Vol. XX, no. 197, pp. 84-90. Sefior Novoa was President Allende's principal legal advisor. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM 773 of a presidential "decree of insistence" unanimously signed by members of the cabinet. With this any measure becomes "constitutional," and there is virtually no possibility of appeal.21 These executive powers seemed to assure the implementation of Allende's program, in spite of the government's minority standing in Congress. Not surpris- ingly, they were viewed with considerable alarm by both the National and Christian Democratic parties.22 In September 1971, the Nationals brought censure proceed- ings against Minister Vuskovic. The Christian Democrats initially went along, and only withdrew their support when assured by Allende of a moratorium on nation- alizations until legislation defining the boundaries of the public, mixed, and private sectors of the economy could be presented. When this failed to materialize, PDC Senators Hamilton and Fuentealba intro- duced a constitutional amendment limiting executive authority with respect to the economy. Under its provisions, any expansion of the public sector would hence- forth require specific enabling legislation, and currently intervened or requisitioned firms would (or at least could) be returned to their original owners unless provided for by legislation. The bill won approval of a majority of both houses of Congress in February 1972. The government, however, was undaunted. Allende announced he would veto the amendment, insisted that a congressional override would require a two-thirds majority, and argued that any conflict in the matter should be resolved by the Con- stitutional Tribunal. Moreover, to dramatize his resolve to continue ahead with his program, he initiated nationalization proceedings for an additional number of important firms. For its part, the opposition countered that only a simple majority was needed to override, that the Tribunal had no jurisdiction in the matter, and that the President must either accept the amendment or call a national plebescite. In April and June 1972, extensive efforts to resolve the conflict were made. These were unsuccessful, and in early July Allende's veto was overridden by a sim- ple majority. Knowing that Allende would reject the override, and that he would refer the matter to the Constitutional Tribunal, opposition forces for the moment chose not to force a showdown, and simply did not formally inform the President of its action. Additional postponements of the question were later agreed to because of more pressing concerns (the October strike and the March elections). It was reopened in April 1973, however, when Congress formally notified Allende of its override. Allende promptly rejected this, promulgated those sections of the amendment not in dispute, and appealed to the Constitutional Tribunal. Unfortunately, after twenty days of deliberation, the Tribunal decided it had no jurisdiction in the matter, leaving it much as it had been a year earlier: the President arguing that Congress had exceeded its prerogatives and that its override was invalid; and the ' Except through the mechanism of impeachment proceedings approved by a two-thirds majority of the Senate. See Frederico Gil, The Political System of Chile (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 1966), p. 97. * Each party comprised groups whose economic interests would be affected by the govern- ment's objectives. Moreover, both were disturbed by the alleged political implications of the proposed state enterprises: immediate control of workers and exclusive oppor- tunity for social and political influence on them over the long term. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 774 THE WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY opposition insisting that Allende either promulgate the amendment in its entire- ty or submit the issue to a plebescite. The Specific Subject Matter Involved Shortly after initial passage of the amendment in February 1972, the govern- ment approached the PDC in an attempt to head off a major confrontation. The Communists, who had been pushing for an improvement of ties with the middle sectors, were largely responsible for this move.23 In accepting their advice, Allende was aware that the mere holding of negotiations, whatever their outcome, would have a stabilizing influence on the general political situation. But he also knew that an agreement with the Christian Democrats on the nature and scope of future economic changes would make a challenge of executive prerogatives seem unneces- sary, and he appeared genuinely optimistic that this could be reached. At the time this was not an entirely unreasonable expectation. The PDC, after all, was publicly committed to the goal of socialism, and even appeared to accept substantial state involvement in the economy. Its major concerns seemed rather with procedural questions and with the degree and forms of worker participation.24 Once launched, the conversations resulted in agreement on three points: (1) future nationalizations would be accomplished through new legislation (although Decree-Law 520 could still be used, subject to appeal, as a temporary mechanism) ; (2) firms already expropriated or intervened would not return to their former status; and (3) special worker-run enterprises would be established.25 Just when it appeared that an understanding had been reached, however, Allende repudiated the terms of agreement (apparently under pressure from the Socialists). This led to a suspension of the negotiations, the resignation from the cabinet of Allende's chief negotiators (members of the Partido de la Izquierda Radical or PIR), and that party's abandonment of the government coalition. Two months later, in mid-June, conversations were renewed, again at the urging of the Communists. Legislative action on the presidential veto was sus- pended, and lengthy negotiations ensued at both staff and leadership levels. Once again, agreement was apparently reached on virtually all items. The government would withdraw its veto and instead present legislation delimiting public and pri- vate sectors, and clarifying the conditions and procedures for nationalization. More- over, the governing principles and major features of this legislation were outlined and agreed to. Only regarding the fate of the country's sole supplier of newsprint and certain details of the worker-run enterprises was there still disagreement.26 'At UP coalition meetings at El Arrayan in February, the Communists urged limited rap- prochement with middle sector groups. Millas' June 5 article specifically mentions the Christian Democrats. ~ I do not mean to minimize the importance of "procedural" questions, which are often the most difficult to overcome. But if the Christian Democrats were really serious about working to build socialism, these difficulties should have been surmountable. Cf. Jaime Ruiz-Tagle, "De la Reforma Industrial al Conflicto de Poderes," in MensaJe, Vol. XXI, no. 208 (Mayo 1972), p. 233. * The newsprint firm was the Compania Manufacturera de Papeles y Cartones, more com- monly referred to as "la papelera" and owned by former President Jorge Alessandri. Its nationalization has long been sought by the government for its symbolic and actual importance. A detailed account of the negotiations is given by then Justice Minister Jorge Tapia, in Clarin (a Santiago daily), 8 de Julio, 1972, pp. 16-17. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM 775 Nevertheless, the attempt again failed. Amidst complicated maneuverings on both sides, communications broke down and a vote was suddenly forced on Allende's veto. It was overridden by a simple majority, thanks to last-minute support from the Christian Democrats. Conservative party elements associated with former President Frei are generally credited with the decision to abandon the negotiations and force a vote.27 Their efforts were cheered by the Nationals but resented by Christian Democrats who opposed alliance with the PN and wished in some way to cooperate with the government. On the left, the failure was a blow to Allende and the Communists, but was greeted with pleasure and relief by others, including many within Allende's own Socialist party.28 Though unsuccessful, the negotiations nevertheless reveal important things about political struggle on the Chilean road to socialism. First, powerful political forces (the Communists and Christian Democrats), though unable to agree, seemed intent on preventing conflict from reaching levels which affected institutional stability. Secondly, when openly and systematically discussed, away from the dis- torting context of public debate, UP-PDC differences on specific economic ques- tions were less far-reaching than one might have supposed. And thirdly, neither the government nor the opposition could claim to be a single-minded monolithic force. The substantial convergence of positions on specific matters is a particularly important aspect of the current crisis. Among other things it suggests that the basic conflict is not one of formal positions or principles. This view is reinforced by a consideration of the constitutional arguments of each side. The Constitutional Issue The public airing of the conflict has consisted largely of legal or constitutional debate. The principal issue concerned the size of the congressional majority required to override the veto of a constitutional amendment. The ambiguity arose from a constitutional amendment passed during the Frei administration. Among its pro- visions was one enabling the President to call a plebescite if a simple congressional majority rejected his veto of a proposed constitutional amendment.29 Prior to this amendment, a two-thirds majority of both houses was clearly required to override presidential vetoes of both regular and constitutional legisla- tion.30 But now some doubt had arisen. The government argued that the reform had been intended to strengthen, not weaken presidential prerogatives, and that in any event it in no way superceded existing amendment provisions. But the oppo- Each group contained elements working at cross purposes (i.e., both for and against an understanding). The PIR played an important role in torpedoing the discussions by refusing to continue to hold up a legislative quorum, and thus forcing a vote on the President's veto. * Here the different attitudes towards the negotiations essentially reflected different political assessments of the Christian Democrats and of how cooperating with them would affect the Popular Unity program. * The Frei reform, in other words, was a constitutional amendment dealing, among other things, with the matter of constitutional amendment. * Cf. Articles 54, 108, and 109 of the Chilean constitution, in Constitution of the Republic of Chile, 1925, pp. 14 and 26-27. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 776 THE WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY sition rejoined that this would make the calling of a plebescite (a major objective of the Frei reform as well) an extremely rare occurrence. Each of these arguments had merit, with the government's probably of greater legal weight.31 Both, however, retained extremely important political implications as well. When introduced, the Frei reform had been enthusiastically supported by the Christian Democrats, who at the time defended the need for expanded presidential powers. The left, on the other hand, had opposed the measure, defending the com- petence and institutional interests of the legislature. Given these circumstances, it is reasonable to suppose that positions in the matter have had a great deal to do with who controlled which branch of government at what time, and that what really was at stake was an intense struggle for power. If accepted, for example, the current Christian Democratic position would place political authority almost entirely in the hands of the legislature. By present- ing all legislation in the form of constitutional amendments, the opposition could effectively eliminate the President's law-making authority; and by making the amendment process a question of simple majority, it could conceivably strip Allende of his other executive powers as well. Whatever its legal merits, then, the Christian Democratic position was very clearly a direct attack on Allende's political power. The same kind of argument can of course as easily be made with respect to the UP's defense of presidential prerogatives. The struggle for power taking place, however, was not merely the usual one between executive and legislative branches. It was a struggle between revolutionary forces, who currently held the balance of legitimate political authority, and anti-revolutionary forces who were attempting to reduce that authority, thus forcing the left either to roll back its revolution or to move beyond legal bounds and thereby risk military intervention. The constitu- tional crisis was thus, in fact, an institutionalized form or variant of the class strug- gle, brought on by the efforts of one of the two sides to change the rules of the game in order more effectively to defend its economic and political interests. Related Political Developments In their respective propaganda efforts in connection with the crisis, each side often accused the other of attempting to subvert institutions and monopolize power. The crisis also provided occasion for renewed leftist attacks on "bourgeois" institu- tions. In the face of opposition attacks on his constitutional authority, for example, Allende frequently assailed Congress as a bastion of self-interest and reaction, and called for "more representative and more revolutionary institutions" in the future. The crisis also was accompanied by a marked upswing in mobilization politics. Street demonstrations, strikes, and mass rallies and marches became important elements in the strategies of both sides. This development was largely the func- See El Mercurio (Edicion Internacional), Semana del 6 al 12 de Marzo, 1972, pp. 3 and 5, for opposition and government interpretations of the Frei reform. Both sides admit that the reform was badly written and probably should not have been passed in its present form. The government's position also appears stronger in that it is difficult to believe that anyone intended constitutional amendments to require less of a legislative majority than regular legislation. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM 777 tion of the doubts each had of the other's respect for constitutional politics. No one who questions this opponent's willingness to accept defeat within the present system is likely to confine his own actions to formal political channels; he must move to counter or overcome them on other levels as well. In Chile, both govern- ment and opposition now seemed to understand and accept this.32 In this way, the constitutional crisis did provide the context for at least a partial shift in the form of political struggle. Even so, at the time it seemed doubtful that the days of constitutional politics were therefore soon to end. Constitutional politics were very deeply ingrained in the country's tradition. It had enjoyed continuous constitutional government since 1932; and only the overthrow of Balmaceda in 1891 marred the line of constitutionality from the era of Portales (in the 1830's) to the ouster of Alessandri in 1924. Moreover, this record of constitutional integrity had been achieved under con- ditions that have occasionally approached those under Allende. In the late 1930s, for example, the country survived Pedro Aguirre Cerda's Popular Front of Marxists and masons, which had ousted the until then dominant (and largely Catholic) political right. And in the years that followed, Chile endured food rationing (under Gonzalez Videla), severe economic depression (under Carlos Ibanez), high-level inflation (under Jorge Alessandri), and deep frustration in the wake of high expec- tations (under Eduardo Frei), all without departing from the seemingly ineffective but apparently consoling tradition of constitutional politics. In each of these instances, when popular dissatisfaction reached its peak, political attention invari- ably turned to the next parliamentary or presidential elections, and not to conspira- torial activity. This tradition and experience afforded Chile a resiliency to conflict not found in other Latin American republics. Moreover, they helped forge and sustain a political consciousness and culture which all major forces have shared and to which all have had to conform. In this connection, it is interesting that both government and opposition did feel obliged to justify their efforts at political mobilization as a means to better preserve the country's institutional tradition. Each side at- tempted to make clear its own strong commitment to these institutions, as well as its opponent's callous and cynical disregard for them. Thus, while new forms of political struggle had been added, they had not yet superceded traditional ones, nor, more importantly, had they altered the terms of political reference or debate."3 Summarizing what the constitutional crisis revealed regarding the political struggle under Allende, it has been seen that (1) powerful forces within each camp were able to exert significant moderating influence; (2) specific ideological differences between the PDC and UP in themselves appeared surmountable; (3) each side comprised diverse views and perspectives; and (4) an intense struggle for power was taking place. " Such a judgment has, of course, long been a prominent characteristic of Marxist doctrine, but it is interesting to note the Marxists being joined in this regard by elements claiming to be anti-Marxist and politically liberal. 3 It seemed particularly important to both sides to project an image of strong constitutional- ist convictions in the eyes of the country's military, although other sectors of public opinion were the object of attention as well. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 778 THE WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY Regarding this last feature, I have suggested that basic political and economic interests lay beneath the various constitutional arguments. In itself, this would appear to speak well of Chile's political capabilities, in that it constituted an impressive example of the institutionalization of political and economic conflict. In the same vein, moreover, the justification of new mobilization efforts in terms of traditional values and institutions served indirectly to reinforce them. All of this, of course, while testimony to the strength of the country's institu- tions during 1972 did not guarantee they would survive all future challenges. The refusal of the Constitutional Tribunal to consider the merits of each side's argu- ments returned the crisis to where it stood the previous year. Allende then promul- gated the undisputed provisions of the amendment, and at the time of the coup was awaiting judgment by the Contraloria.34 Since the initial emergence of the conflict in 1972, however, a number of important developments had taken place. These must be considered if the subsequent collapse of democratic institutions is to be understood. THE OVERTHROW The survival of political institutions depends on their being perceived by a country's major political forces as affording successful pursuit of basic interests. During late 1972 and early 1973, important elements of Chilean society came to regard democratic politics and partisan or class interests as incompatible, making a breakdown in the country's institutional life all but inevitable. Two developments, the October strike and the March elections, played particularly important roles in this process. The strike provided dramatic expression of the country's social and political conflicts, further intensifying them in the process. The elections, on the other hand, saw the opposition lose its last chance to constitutionally remove Allende from office. Moreover, although both had involved major political challenges, neither development weakened the government's resolve to continue with its program. Given this context, it seemed the opposition's overall position could only worsen with time. As a result, sentiment for moving against Allende by force in- creased markedly. Constitutionalist forces within the military saw their numbers and influence decline. Right-wing terrorist activities were stepped up, and PDC and PN representatives began to meet regularly with civilian and military con- spirators. These activities led first to the abortive coup of June 29, then to a re- newal of the October strike, and finally to the coup itself, once pro-Allende or anti-coup forces within the military had been isolated, and pro-government civilian groups forcibly disarmed. In the end, Chile's constitutional tradition broke under the strain of sustained class struggle. As late as June, however, it was possible to see the strike and the elections as making such a breakdown less (not more) likely. Strong governments, after all, were presumably less easily overthrown than weak ones, and both devel- opments indicated the UP had become stronger. * There is precedent for the Contraloria's approving a President's acting in this manner, but constitutionally this need not have mattered as the President could override an unfavor- able decision with a decree of insistence. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM 779 The strike was initiated by independent truck owners in protest against plans to establish a state trucking agency in a remote southern province. It was quickly joined and expanded by merchants, professionals, industrialists, white-collar work- ers, and anti-Marxist peasants, as well as by the National and Christian Democratic parties. Their common intent was to shut the country down economically. With this, all hoped to then win specific policy concessions from the government, although some were also interested in weakening its legitimacy and in creating sufficient chaos actually to bring it down."5 In the end, however, their designs failed because of the previously unsuspected extent of popular mobilization and military support enjoyed by Allende. During the strike a number of middle-class groups became directly involved politically for the first time. Their involvement in the provision of goods and services which were basic to every-day existence gave them a potential for consid- erable power.3" Fortunately for Allende, however, their efforts to paralyze the country brought an immediate reaction from pro-government forces. Largely on their own initiative, workers and other popular groups mobilized in defense of the government and against the strike. Overnight popular brigades, self-defense com- mittees, and industrial and communal councils sprang up. Factories attempting to close were seized and subsequently operated by worker committees (many of which then refused to turn the factories over once the strike had ended). Many shops and foodstores were kept open as well, either by their employees or by groups of local residents. And finally, volunteer drivers manned over 1,000 requisitioned trucks to help keep essential goods moving.37 During the course of the strike, moreover, class lines and class conflict sharp- ened considerably. The country was suddenly divided into two bands, with popu- lar and working-class groups supporting the government and a host of parallel organizations of middle- and upper-class elements in violent opposition. Day in and day out for almost a month, workers attempting to keep stores, factories, and services operating clashed verbally and physically with the merchants, owners, managers, and employee guilds which were trying to close them down. Almost inexorably, it s In general, the Nationals urged a direct political attack on the government's legitimacy and, if that prospered, on its existence as well. The Christian Democrats, on the other hand, preferred to retain the movement's ostensibly economic character, and only indirectly to impune Allende's authority and legitimacy. Cf. a study of the strike by the PDC's Claudio Orrego, entitled El Paro de Octubre, Via Chilena contra el Totalitarismo (San- tiago: Editorial del Pacifico), 1972. ' These groups included the country's major associations of teachers, lawyers, shopkeepers, truckers, banking employees, and doctors. For a partial list of groups supporting the strike, as well as a formulation of their demands, see the 28 point "Pliego de Chile" reproduced in La Prensa (a Santiago daily), 22 de Octubre, 1972, p. 7. Not included in the list, but also major forces behind the strike, were the National Agricultural Society (SNA), the Society for Manufacturing Development (SOFOFA), the National Mining Society, and the Confederation of Production and Commerce. In a partial review of the newspapers for this period, I came across specific references to seizures of over 20 large factories in the Santiago area, although some observers with whom I have spoken estimate the number actually seized as over 100. In addition, the government claimed that over 20,000 student volunteers were engaged in loading and unloading trucks and freight trains. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 780 THE WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY seemed, government and opposition loyalties coincided more and more closely with class affiliations as the strike progressed.38 In this fashion, the strike provided the first evidence of substantial revolution- ary mobilization on the part of popular forces. It showed them to be politically conscious, effectively organized, and possessed of an impressive capacity for struggle. It suggested, in effect, that they were not only supportive of the changes taking place under Allende but also ready and quite able to defend them. It is still unclear whether this suddenly apparent "revolutionary mass" had been there all along, or whether it only developed with this first sustained challenge of the revolutionary process. Whichever the case, it did exist and would have an important effect on subsequent political developments. It seemed fairly certain, for example, that any attempt to oust Allende by force would meet with massive orga- nized resistance and, if not immediately frustrated, would lead to a bitter and bloody civil war. At the time it seemed that this would have a sobering effect on virtually everyone, and in particular on how the opposition viewed its strategic alternatives for the remainder of Allende's term.39 Another important feature of the strike was the strong support given the gov- ernment by the army and national police force. Despite opposition protests, the armed forces maintained order and enforced government policies throughout the strike. Their actions, in effect, thwarted its principal objectives, and actually en- hanced the UP's general political standing.40 Army support also helped bring the conflict to an end. On November 2, Allende announced the formation of a new cabinet, including army Commander- in-Chief Carlos Prats (as Minister of Interior) and two other high-ranking officers. This immediately placed the opposition on the defensive,41 and within four days a settlement of the strike was announced. The government made several conces- sions, but the terms of the agreement generally reflected its views and interests. The opposition was forced to set aside many of its initial demands and, in the case of others, to accept conditional government commitments which would likely prove inoperative.42 * Perhaps the most impressive evidence of the phenomenon was the case of Christian Demo- cratic workers, most of whom apparently ignored the party's call for support of the strike. See, for example, the interview of Juan Lorca, in Chile Hoy, no. 21, Semana del 3 al 9 de Noviembre, 1972, p. 4. It is true that the PDC's peasant confederations Libertad and Triunfo Campesino officially supported the strike, but they did not play an active role in the course of its development. 3 Para-military structures were created both within and between factory and union organiza- tions. Arms had also been distributed, although it is impossible to know how extensively. In any event, I am not suggesting that mobilized workers ever constituted a shadow army rivaling the established military, or that they were capable of overcoming it, but merely that they constituted an important strategic force. * The government's response to strike activities (many of which were clearly and consciously illegal) was for the most part restrained, flexible, and legally correct, a fact which seemed to have a favorable impact on public opinion at the time. " Until the military's incorporation in the Cabinet, the opposition rejected government re- quests for discussions and negotiations by claiming that its word could not be trusted, a claim which, whatever the case previously, was simply not plausible after November 2. " The most important of the government's several concessions was the removal of the private wholesaling complex CENADI from the list of 91 firms soon to be transferred to the state sector of the economy. On the other hand, other government commitments do not appear to have conceded much at all. It was agreed, for example, that legal status would be This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM 781 The military's support of Allende was profoundly disappointing to the oppo- sition. Many had expected (or at least hoped) that the armed forces would actually turn on Allende. Others sought to persuade the military at least to let the govern- ment fend for itself. They argued that the conflict was political, that the strikers were responding to repeated government violations of the constitution, and that in such circumstances a strict defense of law and order was tantamount to political intervention on the side of the left.43 Military authorities rejected these notions, and instead publicly reaffirmed their commitment to the constitution generally and to executive authority in particu- lar. In a formal statement during the strike, General Prats stressed the importance of preserving social order, and then noted the President's direct authority over the armed forces for such purposes. ". .. it is clear that the armed forces are a legitimate instrument which the President of the Republic can employ to ensure that the con- stitution is respected by those who threaten public order, whether it be through acts of subversion or sedition, or [through] coercive attempts to paralyze the country."44 Moreover, according to Prats, it was not for the military to pass judgment on the legality of particular executive orders or decisions, as this would violate constitu- tional prohibitions against "deliberating" (Article 22) and against disobeying or pressuring civil authority (Article 23). With this, Prats appeared to be making a connection between defense of the constitution and the doctrine of civilian suprem- acy, a position he later affirmed more forcefully: As long as the Rule of Law exists, the armed forces should respect the constitution and have no right to determine a priori whether state authorities are respecting or violating it. To do so, employing the power of force to support their [own] opinion or to replace bodies consti- tutionally designed to resolve the controversy, would paradoxically amount to "shoving the constitution in one's pocket." This statement carried two very important implications. On the one hand, Prats declared the military to be the enforcer, and not the judge, of constitutional integrity. The latter responsibility was left to "constitutionally designated" bodies. And although it is not immediately clear to whom this refers, it turns out, in almost all cases, to be the President himself, since with the exception of impeachment pro- ceedings, the executive can legally override all judgments as to the constitutionality of his actions.4" restored to certain organizations "when the basis for the measures initially adopted had disappeared," and that the activities of private transport would be guaranteed "con- sistent with the demands of national security and the government's responsibility to assure at all times the satisfaction of the population's consumer needs." For the gov- ernment statement which served as the basis of the settlement, see La Prensa, 6 de Noviembre, 1972, p. 6. " See "Parlamentarios de Oposicion con el Comandante Prats," in El Mercurio (Edicion Internacional), Semana del 16 al 22 de Octubre, 1972, p. 6. " See "La Doctrina Schneider," a statement by General Carlos Prats Gonzalez appearing in the November 5 edition of El Mercurio (page number unavailable). 45 Ibid. ' In his statement Prats acknowledged (with apparent approval) the president's authority to override Contraloria judgments. See ibid. Also cf. F. Gil, op. cit., for a discussion of the issue. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 782 THE WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY On the other hand, this respect for civilian supremacy and existing authority was conditional upon the continued existence of the "rule of law." A distinc- tion was implicitly drawn between executive authority to resolve legitimate con- troversy regarding interpretation of the constitution and flagrant disregard or abandonment of the constitution. In the latter case, there would presumably be no question that constitutionality had been abrogated, and that the military accord- ingly would be authorized to take steps to restore it.47 This assertion by military authorities represented an important limitation on Allende's exercise of power, as well as a price to be paid for military support both during the strike and subsequently. At the same time, however, it was a limitation and a price which the Allende government had accepted from the beginning, and within which it had thus far been able to operate effectively. In any event, the opposition was forewarned that military authorities would defend Allende against all non-constitutional attempts to oust him. When added to the likelihood of massive popular resistance, this made the idea of removing Allende by force a most hazardous and unpromising one all the way around. Adding further to the opposition's misfortune, the March 1973 congressional elections made the prospects of legal action against Allende even less encour- aging. In failing to win a two-thirds majority of seats in the new Congress, anti-UP forces lost their last chance of constitutionally ousting Allende or even limiting his political authority before the end of his term in 1976. Of additional importance to the overall political situation, the elections suggest a substantial development of political consciousness by leftist forces. Allende actu- ally emerged from the elections as more popular at the midway point in his term than any other Chilean president in recent memory, and this despite increasingly trying economic conditions even for working-class and popular sectors.48 The most plausible explanation of this phenomenon is that the UP had suc- ceeded in making ideological criteria the principal basis of its popular appeal. This is not to say that the government's earlier material concessions to popular groups were unnecessary, or that economic conditions were simply no longer important to people on the left. But it does suggest that large numbers of UP supporters were more concerned with political struggle and the restructuring of society than with the current status of their material needs and aspirations. This reversal of priorities was made possible because the notion of restructuring society had ceased to be an abstraction, and was an increasingly essential part of one's day-to-day experience, be this participation in the life and decision-making processes of the nationalized indus- tries, new involvement and responsibility at the neighborhood level, or the almost * Thus one would distinguish, for example, between not promulgating a law or an override approved by Congress because of a claim that a two-thirds (and not simple) majority vote was required, and not promulgating congressional laws or judicial decisions be- cause (without there being constitutional ambiguity) one simply did not like them. This latter action would constitute arbitrary (and constitutionally implausible) disregard of legitimate actions and prerogatives of other branches of government. 4 The phenomenon of el desgaste del poder (the drain of power), in which an administration sees its popular following progressively diminish with time, is a remarkably constant feature of modern Chilean politics. President Frei, for example, having been elected with 56 percent of the national vote in 1964, could command only a 35.6 percent follow- ing in 1967. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM 783 continuous confrontation with opposing social and political forces at virtually all levels.49 The elections thus indirectly confirmed earlier evidence regarding the increas- ing maturity of revolutionary forces in Chile. They showed that workers and other popular elements were interested in more than merely money and living conditions, that they would support a revolutionary government in the face of extreme eco- nomic adversity, and that this support had grown stronger, and not weaker, with the passage of time.50 The general conclusions to be drawn from the strike and the elections can now be briefly summarized. First, the opposition suffered two substantial political de- feats in a row, and now faced three more years of Allende's presidency without any visible institutional means for countering executive power (unless, as seemed un- likely, its constitutional amendment became law). The left, on the other hand, emerged as politically much stronger than most people had imagined. It had respectable electoral strength (more than enough, for example, to assure Allende of completion of his term), and it boasted of even more impressive political consciousness and capacity for mobilization and struggle (which assured massive resistance and virtual civil war in the event of an effort to oust Allende by force). And finally, the country's military leadership appeared strongly committed not only to constitutional principles, but to civilian supremacy and executive authority as well. As long as Allende's government maintained its overall respect for the con- stitution and for the remaining branches of government, the military seemed ready to defend Allende from efforts to oust him. These conclusions very clearly favored government interests, inasmuch as Allende seemed both able and content to carry on as he had to that point (i.e. moving steadily towards completion of his program within the bounds of the con- stitution). The opposition, on the other hand, could not like the idea of things continuing as they had been, and yet did not seem able to do anything about it: while its legal avenues appeared exhausted, illegal action seemed both too unprom- ising and too hazardous to warrant serious consideration. It is true that the opposition had become discouraged by recent developments, and that it was quite pessimistic regarding the future. But as long as the military was prepared to defend duly constituted authority, anti-Allende forces were un- likely to take "drastic" action. Without the complicity of the military, and given the capacity for struggle of pro-government forces, the prospects for success appeared poor and the likelihood of disaster high. While the increased political strength of the government had initially alarmed the opposition, it thus also * The following remarks of a worker at the nationalized Fabrilana yarn factory provides a forceful example of this phenomenon: "There is no way we would accept, there is no good reason to return the industries, since to have what we have now has cost us so many sacrifices, has cost us so much. If it is necessary, we will take to the streets to defend what is ours now and forever." Quoted in El Siglo, 10 de Julio, 1972, p. 3. * The record number of factory seizures during the year, the formation of the combative "cordones industriales" in the industrial park areas of Santiago, and periodically reported interviews with so-called "ordinary workers," all offer support for the view that revolu- tionary consciousness was indeed growing in Chile. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 784 THE WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY seemed to deter it from responding unwisely. And it is in this sense that the Octo- ber and March events appeared at the time to enhance the likelihood of institu- tional stability. The crucial variable in all of this, of course, was the military. Although little was known regarding internal military politics, a sudden shift in the military's position was always a possibility. At the time, there was clearly greater sympathy for the opposition than for the government in military ranks. But the UP had its supporters as well, and of course there was the military's much vaunted tradition of non-involvement in politics. In any event, the great majority appeared to feel adequately interpreted by the civilista line of General Prats.51 Prats himself was an extraordinarily able political figure. He had led the army through very difficult times, effectively dealing with civilian politicians and success- fully resisting a number of internal challenges to his leadership. Following the March elections, however, his position deteriorated sharply. New York Times cor- respondent Jonathan Kandell reports from post- coup interviews with middle rank- ing officers of their relief that the UP had done as well as it had. Although they had been actively plotting since November, the results had made it easier to con- vince others that there was no way out but through force.52 Widespread planning involving both civilian and military groups was under- taken almost immediately. These meetings led to the attempt of June 29, and to abortive coups on May 18 and August 18 as well. Each was put down by forces loyal to General Prats and the government. But by mid-August Prats had exhausted his political resources, was isolated, and was forced to resign as both Commander- in-Chief and Minister of Interior. He was replaced by General Augusto Pinochet, and it then became a matter of time before the military made its move. Also an apparently important element in the military's calculus was the grow- ing evidence that the country's largest single party, the Christian Democrats, would support Allende's overthrow. Following the March elections, the PDC had chosen as its new President Senator Patricio Aylwin, a strong anti-Marxist with contacts with right-wing political and economic groups. From this point on, the party subsequently pursued a policy of hard-line opposition to Allende, and during the renewed strike by anti-government forces in July and August, it refused to consider Allende's offers of discussion and concessions. Moreover, Christian Democrats also joined the Nationals in a congressional resolution charging the UP with the destruc- tion of the constitutional and legal order, and urging military action to "end such a situation." These moves were taken due note of by the military, particularly their implication of support or sympathy for a subsequent intervention.53 5 This majority obviously did not include Generals Arturo Marshall or Roberto Viaux, both of whom were implicated in anti-government conspiracies early in the Allende presi- dency. 5 Jonathan Kandell, "Chilean Officers Tell How They Began to Plan the Take-Over Last November," New York Times, September 27, 1973, page 3. " See El Mercurio (Edicion Internacional), Semana del 20 al 26 de Agosto de 1973, p. 5. The party's support for the resolution was strongly criticized on these precise grounds (that it would encourage coup-minded military elements) by left wing Christian Demo- crats. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions CHILE'S DEMOCRATIC ROAD TO SOCIALISM 785 With the complicity of the Christian Democrats, the one remaining obstacle to a golpe was the one on which Allende had probably counted most, the military's unwillingness to bring on either a bitter and bloody civil war or a repressive Fascist dictatorship. In an interview during early 1973, he described the horror and de- structiveness of a civil war, and then speculated that ".. . if a revolt or civil war were successful in Chile, we would wind up with a despotic government, a Fascist dictatorship. Why? Because there is already political consciousness here, particu- larly among the workers, and there would have to be bloodshed and violence to keep them down." 54 Allende believed strongly that there would be widespread resistance to any effort to oust him. But he also urged the realization that no one, least of all the country as a whole, emerges victorious from a civil war, and that even if formally successful, the military would be forced to impose a brutal dictatorship upon a de- feated but defiant people. This last, and seemingly plausible defense against intervention clearly failed. Whatever the risks of broad scale conflict or civil war, the military was prepared to run them. The systematic purging of their own ranks, and the massive disarma- ment of popular forces in the months preceding the coup no doubt reduced the likelihood of effective resistance. Even so, the coup itself was hardly a bloodless changing of the guard. The stern measures announced by the military, together with the reports re- ceived to date, indicate that there was substantial resistance in the period immedi- ately following the coup. Conditions have since become more orderly, at least at the level of appear- ances. Of course there is no political activity; the Congress, parties, the central labor federation, and the free press have all been abolished or "suspended" by the military government. Moreover, the Junta has announced its intention to recon- struct or resurrect the nineteenth century Portalian society, based on strident na- tionalism, authoritarian rule, the return of a large part of the nationalized economy to private hands, and the formation of new "unpoliticized" social and political groups.55 The major question in all this, and perhaps the true test of the significance of the Popular Unity government, is of course whether such a goal is possible. Can it be achieved, and can the developments of the past three years be erased; or will the military be powerless to reverse the structural changes and working-class conscious- ness which have taken place? From the character of my analysis to this point it should be clear that I be- lieve the attempt will fail. During the Allende years, working-class and popular forces developed into a powerful and purposeful movement. That it could not " See John P. Wallach's interview of President Allende in the October 1973 issue of Genesis, p. 23. ~ See the special issue of El Mercurio (Edicion Internacional), Septiembre 1973, devoted entirely to a defense of the coup and to an explanation of military goals and ideals. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 786 THE WESTERN POLITICAL QUARTERLY match the Chilean military in firepower was tragically evident the week of Septem- ber 11; but this does not mean that its historical development can be arrested or erased by decree. Chile's democratic road to socialism, while it failed, will be sur- vived by the strong working-class movement and structural changes which it fos- tered. And any government which attempts to deny or destroy this legacy will only ensure its own early demise. This content downloaded from 158.109.185.182 on Tue, 7 Oct 2014 12:56:34 PM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
SECOND REPLY With SECOND SUPPLEMENT With REPLY To Response in RE NOM To RENEW Strunk V NYS Board of Elections Et Al. NYS SC Kings County Index No 6500-2011