Professional Documents
Culture Documents
SUBMITTED BY:
AVDHESH KUMAR SHARMA
2008-2010
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DECLARATION
I hereby declare that this project report prepared in lieu of a compulsory paper for the
Marketing) is my original work which I have submitted in Gulf Bulls Securities Pvt.
Ltd. to my guide Ms Anuja Shukla. No part of it has been submitted to any other
university or organisation.
All the information and data in my project are authentic to the best of my knowledge
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Acknowledgement
Project work is never the work of an individual. It is more a combination of views,
ideas, suggestions, contribution and work involving many individuals.
I wish to express my deepest gratitude to Gulf Bulls Securities’ management for
guidance.
I am grateful to Ms. Anuja Shukla, my guide, for his invaluable guidance and
cooperation during the course of the project. He provided me with his assistance and
support whenever needed that has been instrumental in completion of this project.
The project could not have completed without the guidance of Mr. Vishal Thakur,
Ms.
Neha Goel, Ms. Anuja Shukla and last but not the least Mr. Mandeep. Their
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Preface
The stock market in India has been a kind of mysterious place for many people who
think that the persons investing their money in the market are sort of gambling on
their money. There is usual misconception in the minds of the common man that
because of the volatility of the market, their hard earned money is not safe in the
stock
market.
interested to invest on. The market doesn’t behave in an arbitrate manner but certain
trends are repeated over the time again and again. It is quite responsive towards the
economic activities taking place in India as well as around the whole world.
The broad objective of the project is to understand the behavioural pattern of the
shares of IndiaBulls Financial Services Ltd. over the past one year and a half so that
one can understand the movement of the share on a particular trading session as well
The project will provide a tool in the hands of the investors to take the decisions
regarding their investment in the shares of IBFSL that is, when to buy or when to sell
the shares. It will also give them the answer that whether it is right time to invest in
this share or not, and what could be the best time to invest in this share. project deals
My project is divided into different chapters and they are given as under:
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 3
5 • Research An Introduction
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
6 Chapter 5
• Analysis of Different Indian sectors and its
leading companies
IT
Banking
Real Estate
7 Chapter 6
• Conclusion
8 • Annexure
Bibliography
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Indian economy remained on a high growth trajectory with renewed vigour and
greater participation from various sectors of the economy. The dynamism is expected
emphasis on rural and agricultural reforms that would further stimulate demand,
It seems that corporate India’s growth is likely to remain robust, given the massive
I have introduced a new section in this year’s edition, viz., Insights. Some major
It is the PSU companies that rule the roost in terms of market capitalisation. The 54
PSU companies featured in the Top 500 list command a high share of 25.2% in the
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total market capitalisation of the Top 500 Companies.
The report describes various aspects of the Stocks and focus on the various
opportunities and threats that have emerged as a result of change in the regulatory
environment. The objective of the project is to find out the risk and return
In doing so I have used various selection techniques. For the purpose of selecting the
company’s products we have used the main selection analysis is Technical analysis
and fundamental analysis for ICICI Bank, Educomp Solutions and Unitech. The
intention behind such an analysis is that to analyze the competitive advantage of the
company by knowing the resistance and support level for the company’s which is
Then I have done the fundamental analysis to predict the stocks behaviour in future
moreover the technical analysis for stocks return for the above mentioned stocks, the
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Also I have done the Financial Strength Analysis of the company’s because to know
In this section I have done the full study of the ICICI, Educomp Solutions and
Unitech.
I have also done swot analysis for these three companies with strengths, weakness,
opportunity and threats of each of the company’s. The swot analysis would also
At last I have done a analysis of these stocks and had predicted the stock prices for
future and the support as well as resistance level so that it can be taken up by the
investors to decide the time and date for their investment to have greater returns at
their end.
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OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
• To analyze the balance sheet and income statement in order to know the
In this study I had to present an introduction to the Indian economy and study of
different Indian sectors Data for companies were collected and analyzed. A
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Comparison of stock market index and stock prices of these companies was done and
it was clarified how much change is there with a change is Sensex. The study
includes
a SWOT analysis of different companies, which points out the strength, weakness,
Need of the study was to get an incite into the different sectors and future market
prospects. This study was required because when it comes to business generation and
growth in this highly competitive world, each of such companies need to understand
the market they want to enter, the competitors, know the market potential and future
hard earned money. One needs to generate trust and give better services as compared
to their competitors. This study will be of importance for Gulf Bulls as they will
come
to know about the different sector, how it functions, and trends in the sector etc. Also
it is very important to know the liquidity and returns of the market one is planning to
enter. So a research was done to know the volumes they generate, the type of client
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they have, the type projects they have, the type of segment they need to enter or come
out, the growth that they require for there order book so that they sustain in this
market scenario, their strategy to trade, liquidity and investments made by them. This
Another study to collect a database of the prospective clients in not only nationally
but also in global was conducted. It includes the type of project they are getting and
bid which they giving at time of tender issue by government or other corporate. On
the basis of this analysis, a feasibility report has been prepared to make Gulf Bulls
Securities aware of the highly active unorganized and organized sector present in the
market. This database will help them to make a good research report.
The financial statements of the companies were studied to analyze their investments
and returns. This also gave an idea about the returns on investments from this market.
Hence in this project report I have tried to cover all the possible dimensions related to
the study of construction sector and its returns, liquidity and future growth prospects
in this market. Suggestions are also given in the end as to how Gulf Bulls Securities
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can be benefit from these analysis for there research report.
METHODOLOGY
An Introduction
Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can also define
topic. Some people consider research as a movement, a movement from the known to
the unknown. It is actually a voyage of discovery. We all possess the vital instinct of
inquisitiveness for things. When the unknown confronts us, we wonder and our
inquisitiveness make us probe and attain full understanding of the unknown. This
inquisitiveness is the mother of all knowledge and the method, which a person
employs for obtaining this knowledge of whatever the unknown, can be termed as
research.
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Research is an academic activity and as such the term should be used in a technical
for its advancement. It is the pursuit of truth with the help of study, observation,
comparison, and experiment. In short, the search for knowledge through objective
and
Significance of research
research.
“All progress is born of inquiry. Doubt is better than overconfidence, for it leads to
organization.
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The role of research in several fields of applied economics and finance, whether
times. The increasingly complex nature of business and government has focused
policy formation, has gained added importance, both from the government and the
business houses.
Research Methodology
The objective of this research project was to provide Gulf Bulls Securities with
The section on parameters that affect the different sector required secondary data
collection and then use of valuation ratio for the estimating the revenue which they
can generate in future like steel prices to sales ratio, cement prices to sales ratio along
relating to the companies traded at sensex, nse etc was collected and spot and risk
factor has been associated. Price of raw material and sales trend were also
Seasonal variations in order book for each of company was calculated from the
secondary data collected and analysis has been done as to how much are the
In this study, mainly two types of data collection techniques were used i.e. with the
help of research analyst and secondly with the help of research report given by
project guide at the company. In both the methods, the analysis has been done for the
sector. It was taken care that I refrained from expressing my own opinion.
Limitations
• The biggest problem that I faced during this research study was that of data
collection.
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• In my research it was difficult to get persons at company to give out information
• Year ending period and my survey period were same, creating a problem, as
people
• were scared to give required data. They said they would have to consult their C.A
regarding it.
• During the working days my sir has to submit daily research report so during the
market time he was not able to attention to me so I have to wait when I have any
CHAPTER 1
COMPANY
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PROFILE
COMPANY’S PROFILE
About company
Gulf Bulls Securities Pvt. Ltd. is a company registered under the Companies Act,
1956 .It is a professionally managed group headed by the directors, having vast
The company is serving a diverse customer base of institutional and retail investors
The Company has a balanced mix of revenues from emerging markets and is well
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positioned to leverage the growth potential offered by these markets.
GBS provides investors a robust platform to trade in Equities in NSE and BSE, and
derivatives in NSE. The company has a worldwide vision and it along with its
associates is currently providing state of the art stock broking services through all the
major stock exchanges, trading through NSE & BSE, depository services through
CDSL and all the services are available under the one roof. With its ability to evolve
with the changing environment the Company has been able to put itself to the
forefront of stock broking activities. With its network spreading across various parts
of India, it has made a distinct mark among the stock broking houses and high net
The company offers financial information, analysis, investment guidance, news &
views, which are designed to meet the requirements of everyone from a beginner to a
“Our vision is to grow our business and make our presence across the world.”
“Our mission is to create and introduce the new definition of investments around the
globe.”
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Management Team:
Name Designation
Mr. Vivek Rana Chairman / Managing Director
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and www.moneyporeexpress.com
retail investors better opportunity to trade at home and that to at greater speed
and convenience.
Areas of Expertise
Gulf Bulls offers real time trading opportunities on the NSE. It also offers depository
and online services to clients for account accessing and information through its online
portal catering to the needs of mobile trader as well as the net savvy investor. Gulf
information, analysis and research, and a range of monitoring tools is available. The
apart from conventional broking. High speed anywhere trading through the net,
online depository services, commodities trading and retail debt products are
Research
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Gulf Bulls is a research driven organization. Daily Call is its morning newsletter that
takes a trading call on the market and gives a ringside view of the overnight national
and international events. Customers get real time feeds on news, comments and
recommendations through instant messaging that are of utmost essence to the serious
trader. The Weekly Watch delivered to all the clients every Saturday evening is the
most comprehensive reports of its kind. The report summons developments over the
past week, major economic talking points, summary on derivatives markets, technical
outlook and trading ideas for the forthcoming week and fundamental investments
with
an exhaustive research report for a medium to long term horizon. On the commodities
side, it releases daily and weekly reports providing outlook on international agri-
commodities.
Mutual Funds
Gulf Bulls provides a host of services for customers investing in mutual funds. It
offers wide range of services like, rankings of different mutual fund schemes, list of
new schemes issued in the market, interviews with fund managers, InstaNAV – a
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quick search based application that enables customers to get the related information
about the desired scheme, Primer – a brief description about mutual funds, RBI
procedural guidelines and a Risk Profiler – which helps the customers in ascertaining
Advisory Services
Apart from broking business, Gulf Bulls is also engaged in offering advisory services
of investments into mutual funds, primary market, life insurance and other small
saving products. The distribution services add up to their broking business and are
research and back office team. Gulf Bulls’s set of diligent advisors helps its
customers
plan and get more out of one’s money. The schemes include, fixed income, bank
fixed
deposits, company fixed deposits, small savings schemes, tax saving schemes and
NRI deposits. Gulf Bulls also provides tax planning services – where a list of tax
saving schemes and a forum for Q&A where the queries are answered by the tax
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advisors; and an NRI advisory body, where it provides information for NRIs in
Loan Advisory
Gulf Bulls also provides advisory services on the loan schemes of certain banks to its
customers. The schemes include, home loans, adhoc loans, professional loans,
educational loans, consumer loans and auto loans. Its advisory services are classified
into four categories namely; Primers – giving an overview about all schemes that are
available, Calculators – where it helps the customers with quick calculators, Jargon
Buster – a translator and Digital Advisors – which help in making decisions easy. It
has entered into partnership with many leading banks in providing this facility.
Performance
The Company registered strong growth during the first 10 months of 2007. The
2006. Number of terminals, sub brokers and employees almost doubled during this
period.
Growth Areas
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Gulf Bulls has diversified its business to other areas such as portfolio management
company fixed deposits and merchant banking to its current offerings. It is also
firms and also entering into joint venture operations in the near future.
Membership
MEMBERSHIP
Products offered
Offline
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Rs. 200 : Advance Delivery
Rs.200 : AMC
Online
Demat
SWOT Analysis
Strength
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• Highly skilled and experienced staff.
• Excellent infrastructure
Weakness
Opportunity
• Initiate awareness about stock market and initiate classes for people interested
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Threat
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CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE
REVIEW
Similar work that is related to Equity Research and Stock Analysis has been
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In this article author reports the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in
February 1995 on the use by foreign exchange dealers in Hong Kong of fundamental
and technical analyses to form their forecasts of exchange rate movements. Our
analyses for predicting future rate movements at different time horizons. At shorter
fundamental analysis, but the skew becomes steadily reversed as the length of
horizon
and/or other trend-following systems are the most useful technical technique.
In this another study the author documents the behaviour of earnings, abnormal stock
returns, analysts' earnings forecasts, and accounting accruals following years in which
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companies report negative annual earnings. Changes in accounting accruals (earnings
minus operating cash flows) frequently are used as proxies for managerial
increase sharply in the year following a loss. The earnings increases are due to
financial analysts expect even better earnings performance than the rebounding firms
are able to provide. Investors also appear not to understand the post-loss behaviour of
increases, and the result, on average, is negative excess stock returns. The excess
returns are correlated with analysts' earnings forecast errors, which proxy for the
(Michael Ettredge Richard Toolson Steve Hall Chongkil Na, Oct 2002)
The paper seeks to estimate and analyze the Value Added Intellectual Coefficient
(VAIC) for measuring the value-based performance of the Indian banking sector for a
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reports, especially the profit/loss account and balance-sheet of the banks concerned
for the relevant years, were used to obtain the data. A review is conducted of the
reviews measurement techniques and tools, and the VAIC method is applied in order
to analyze the data of Indian banks for the five-year period. The intellectual or human
capital (HC) and physical capital (CA) of the Indian banking sector is analysed and
their impact on the banks' value-based performance is discussed. Findings - The study
different segments, and there is also an improvement in the overall performance over
the study period. There is an evident bias in favour of the performance of foreign
scheduled commercial banks are studied as per the information provided by the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI)/India's Apex bank. Regional rural banks (RRBs), a
segment of the indian banking sector, are not dealt with in the study since their
number is large (more than 200), but they contribute only 3 percent of the market of
has strong theoretical foundations, which have a proven record and applications. The
methodology adopted has been research tested. Domestic banks in India are provided
with a new dimension to understand and evaluate their performance and benchmark it
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with global standards. The paper also has policy implications, as it reflects the lop-
sided growth of a few sections in the Indian banking segment. Originality/value - The
the business performance of the Indian banking sector from an intellectual resource
perspective.
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CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH AN
INTRODUCTION
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RESEARCH an Introduction
Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. One can also define
topic. Some people consider research as a movement, a movement from the known to
the unknown. It is actually a voyage of discovery. We all possess the vital instinct of
inquisitiveness for things. When the unknown confronts us, we wonder and our
inquisitiveness make us probe and attain full understanding of the unknown. This
inquisitiveness is the mother of all knowledge and the method, which a person
employs for obtaining this knowledge of whatever the unknown, can be termed as
research.
Research is an academic activity and as such the term should be used in a technical
for its advancement. It is the pursuit of truth with the help of study, observation,
comparison, and experiment. In short, the search for knowledge through objective
and systematic method of finding solutions to a problem is research.
Significance of research
It is very important to understand the importance of research to perform it better and
also to appreciate a research work. So I thought of stating the significance of
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research. “All progress is born of inquiry. Doubt is better than overconfidence, for it
leads to inquiry and inquiry leads to invention” is a famous Hudson Maxim in context
of which the significance of research can be well understood. Increased amount of
research makes progress possible. Research inculcates scientific and inductive
thinking and it promotes the development of logical habits of thinking and
organization.
The role of research in several fields of applied economics and finance, whether
related to business or to the economy as a whole, has greatly increased in modern
times. The increasingly complex nature of business and government has focused
attention on the use of research in solving operational problems. Research, as an aid
to policy formation, has gained added importance, both from the government and the
business houses.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1. STOCK CHARTS
A stock chart is a simple two-axis (X-Y) plotted graph of price and time. Each
individual equity, market and index listed on a public exchange has a chart that
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illustrates this movement of price over time. Individual data plots for charts can be
made using the CLOSING price for each day. The plots are connected together in a
single line, creating the graph. Also, a combination of the OPENING,
CLOSING, HIGH and/or LOW prices for that market session can be used for the data
plots. This second type of data is called a PRICE BAR. Individual price bars are then
overlaid onto the graph, creating a dense visual display of stock movement.
Stock charts can be drawn in two different ways. An ARITHMETIC chart has
equal vertical distances between each unit of price. A LOGARITHMIC chart is
a percentage growth chart.
2. TRENDS
The stock chart is used to identify the current trend. A trend reflects the
average rate of change in a stock's price over time. Trends exist in all time frames
and all markets. Trends can be classified in three ways: UP, DOWN or
RANGEBOUND. In an uptrend, a stock rallies often with intermediate periods of
consolidation or movement against the trend. In doing so, it draws a series of
higher highs and higher lows on the stock chart. In an uptrend, there will be a
POSITIVE rate of price change over time. In a downtrend, a stock declines
often with intermediate periods of consolidation or movement against the trend. In
doing so, it draws a series of lower highs and lower lows on the stock chart.
In a downtrend, there will be a NEGATIVE rate of price change over time.
Range bound price swings back and forth for long periods between easily seen
upper and lower limits. There is no apparent direction to the price movement on the
stock chart and there will be LITTLE or NO rate of price change. Trends tend to
persist over time. A stock in an uptrend will continue to rise until some change in
value or a condition occurs. Declining stocks will continue to fall until some
change in value or conditions occur. Chart readers try to locate TOPS and
BOTTOMS, which are those points where a rally or a decline ends. Taking a
position near a top or a bottom can be very profitable. Trends can be
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measured using TRENDLINES. Very often a straight line can be drawn UNDER
three or more pullbacks from rallies or OVER pullbacks from declines. When price
bars then return to that trend line, they tend to find SUPPORT or RESISTANCE
and bounce off the line in the opposite direction.
3. VOLUME
Volume measures the participation of the crowd. Stock charts display
volume through individual HISTOGRAMS below the price pane.
Often these will show green bars for up days and red bars for down days. Investors
and traders can measure buying and selling interest by watching how many up
or down days in a row occur and how their volume compares with days in
which price moves in the opposite direction.
Stocks that are bought with greater interest than sold are said to be
under ACCUMULATION. Stocks that are sold with great interest than bought
are said to be under DISTRIBUTION. Accumulation and distribution often LEAD
price movement. In other words, stocks under accumulation often will rise some time
after the buying begins. Alternatively, stocks under distribution will often fall some
time after selling begins. It takes volume for a stock to rise but it can fall of its own
weight. Rallies require the enthusiastic participation of the crowd.
When a rally runs out of new participants, a stock can easily fall. Investors and
traders use indicators such as ON BALANCE VOLUME to see whether
participation is lagging (behind) or leading (ahead) the price action. Stocks
trade daily with an average volume that determines their LIQUIDITY. Liquid
stocks are very easy for traders to buy and sell. Liquid stocks require very
high SPREADS (transaction costs) to buy or sell and often cannot be eliminated
quickly from a portfolio. Stock chart analysis does not work well on illiquid stocks.
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How can one organize the endless stream of stock chart data into a logical
format? Charts allow investors and traders to look at past and present price
action in order to make reasonable predictions and wise choices. It is a highly visual
medium. This one fact separates it from the colder world of value-based
analysis. The stock chart activates both left-brain and right-brain functions of
logic and creativity. So it's no surprise that over the last century two forms of
analysis have developed that focus along these lines of critical examination.
The oldest form of interpreting charts is PATTERN ANALYSIS. This
method gained popularity through both the writings of Charles Dow and
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, a classic book written on the subject just
after World War II. The newer form of interpretation is INDICATOR
ANALYSIS, a math-oriented examination in which the basic elements of price and
volume are run through a series of calculations in order to predict where price will go
next. Pattern analysis gains its power from the tendency of charts to repeat the same
bar formations over and over again.
These patterns have been categorized over the years as having a bullish or
bearish bias. Some well-known ones include HEAD and SHOULDERS,
TRIANGLES, RECTANGLES, DOUBLE TOPS, DOUBLE BOTTOMS and
FLAGS. Also, chart landscape features such as GAPS and TRENDLINES are said to
have great significance on the future course of price action. Indicator analysis uses
math calculations to measure the relationship of current price to past price
action. Almost all indicators can be categorized as TREND-FOLLOWING or
OSCILLATORS. Popular trend-following indicators include MOVING
AVERAGES, ON BALANCE VOLUME and MACD. Common oscillators
include STOCHASTICS, RSI and RATE OF CHANGE. Trend-following
indicators react much more slowly than oscillators. They look deeply into the rear
view mirror to locate the future. Oscillators react very quickly to short-term changes
in price, flipping back and forth between OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD
levels.
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Both patterns and indicators measure market psychology. The core of investors
and traders that make up the market each day tend to act with a herd mentality as
price rises and falls. This "crowd" tends to develop known characteristics
that repeat themselves over and over again. Chart interpretation using these two
important analysis tools uncovers growing stress within the crowd that should
eventually translate into price change.
They most often manifest as horizontal price levels. But trend lines at various angles
represent support and resistance as well. The length of time that a support or
resistance level exists determines the strength or weakness of that level. The strength
or weakness determines how much buying or selling interest will be required
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to break the level. Also, the greater volume traded at any level, the stronger that
level will be. Support and resistance exist in all time frames and all markets.
Levels in longer tie frames are stronger than those in shorter time frames. The ideas
of Charles Dow, the first editor of the Wall Street Journal, form the basis of technical
analysis today. The behavior patterns that he observed apply to markets throughout
the world.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis is the process of looking at a business at the basic or
fundamental financial level. This type of analysis examines key ratios of a business to
determine its financial health and gives you an idea of the value its stock.
Many investors use fundamental analysis alone or in combination with other tools to
evaluate stocks for investment purposes. The goal is to determine the current worth
and, more importantly, how the market values the stock.
Earnings
It’s all about earnings. When you come to the bottom line, that’s what investors want
to know. How much money is the company making and how much is it going to
make in the future.
Earnings are profits. It may be complicated to calculate, but that’s what buying a
company is about. Increasing earnings generally leads to a higher stock price and, in
some cases, a regular dividend.
When earnings fall short, the market may hammer the stock. Every quarter,
companies report earnings. Analysts follow major companies closely and if they fall
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short of projected earnings, sound the alarm. For more information on earnings, see
my article: It’s the Earnings.
While earnings are important, by themselves they don’t tell you anything about how
the market values the stock. To begin building a picture of how the stock is valued
you need to use some fundamental analysis tools. These ratios are easy to calculate,
but you can find most of them already done on sites like cnn.money.com or MSN
MoneyCentral.com.
These are the most popular tools of fundamental analysis. They focus on earnings,
growth, and value in the market. The tools are given belows:-
Ratio analysis
Financial ratios provide the basic for answering some important questions concerning
financial (well being) of the firm.
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How liquid is the firm? Liquidity refers to the firms’ ability to meet maturing
obligating and to convert assets into cash. This factor is very important to the firms’
creditors.
How does the firms’ management finance its investment? These decisions
have a direct impact upon the returns provided to the common stockholders.
STANDARDS OF COMPARISON
The ratio analysis involves comparison for a useful interpretation of the financial
statements. Standards of comparison may consist of:
• PAST RATIOS: i.e. ratios calculated from the past financial
statements of the same firm:
• PROJECTED RATIOS: i.e. ratios developed using the projected, or
pro forma, financial statements of the same firm;
• COMPETITORS’ RATIO: i.e. ratios of some selected firms,
especially most progressive and successful competitor, at the same
point in time, and
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• INDUSTRY RATIOS: i.e. ratios of the industries to which the firms
belongs
CLASSIFICATION OF RATIOS
Ratios can be classified from various points of view .In reality; the classification
depends on the objectives and available data. Ratio may be based on figures in the
balance sheet .in the profit & loss account in both
Thus they may be worked out on the basis of figures contained in the financial
statements.
In the view of the requirement of the various users (e.g. short term creditors, long
term creditors, management, investors etc….) of the ratio may classify the ratio as
follows-
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CHAPTER 5
ANALYSIS OF
DIFFERENT INDIAN
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SECTORS & ITS
LEADING COMPANIES
Information technology, and the hardware and software associated with the IT
industry, are an integral part of nearly every major global industry.
The information technology (IT) industry has become of the most robust industries in
the world. IT, more than any other industry or economic facet, has an increased
productivity, particularly in the developed world, and therefore is a key driver of
global economic growth. Economies of scale and insatiable demand from both
consumers and enterprises characterize this rapidly growing sector.
The Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) explains the
“information technology” as encompassing all possible aspects of information
systems based on computers.
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Both software development and the hardware involved in the IT industry include
everything from computer systems, to the design, implementation, study and
development of IT and management systems.
Owing to its easy accessibility and the wide range of IT products available, the
demand for IT services has increased substantially over the years. The IT sector has
emerged as a major global source of both growth and employment.
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• Systems architecture
• Database design and development
• Networking
• Application development
• Testing
• Documentation
• Maintenance and hosting
• Operational support
• Security services
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS
Company description
Educomp Solutions Ltd, formerly Educomp Datamatics Limited, was
incorporated in 994 and is based in New Delhi, India. It is India's largest
market-listed educational service provider mainly focused on the K-12 space.
Educomp group serves over 19,000 schools and 9.4 million learners and
educators across the world. Company operates private schools across various
cities and also partners with various state governments.
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It has 27 offices worldwide. In addition, the Company operates through its various
subsidiaries including authorGEN, Threebrix eServices, Learning.com, USA,
AsknLearn Pte Ltd, Singapore and via its associates such as Savvica in Canada.
• Received financial closure for Rs 725cr of debt for its K-12 business.
• Debtor days for company have come down from 179 days to 145 days.
COMPANY MANAGEMENT
50
R.D. Engineering College
Jagdish Prakash Whole-Time Director
Gomal Jain Director
Sankalp Srivastava Director
Shonu Chandra Director
Sankalp Srivastava AUDIT COMMITTEE
Chairman, Independent & Non-Executive
The Company has seventeen subsidiaries, one associate and two planned joint
ventures. The subsidiaries focus mainly on providing services and products directly to
the individual consumer as part of the Company’s Direct initiatives. In Fiscal 2008,
Direct Initiatives contributes 14.09% of the total consolidated revenues of Educomp.
SHARE DATA
Market Cap Rs.3647.25 Crs
Price Rs.1898.00
BSE Sensex 9459.34
BSE Code 532696
NSE Code INE216H01019
Face Value Rs.10
52-Week High/Low Rs.4219/1331
Index BSE 100 ,BSE Mid Cap
Group A
51
R.D. Engineering College
Listed on BSE/NSE 13th January 2006
Shareholding pattern(%)
Promoters 55.03%
FII's 6.97%
Public and Others 38.00%
Public and
Others
P romoters
38%
FII's
Promoters P ublic and Others
55%
FII's
7%
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R.D. Engineering College
JULY 2008 3,589.00 24-Jul-08 2,320.00 1-Jul-08
➢ As the high/low for every month is specified here, we can determine the
difference which is highest in percentage for the particular month.
➢ In the month of October 2008, we can see the kind of volatility present in
share price of Educomp as it is having the difference of 48.85% within high
and low in the equity report for the month.
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R.D. Engineering College
JUNE 2008 24-Jun-08 3,310.00 2,931.00 379.00
Margin
Average Difference between the day High and day Low in the last one year for
Educomp Solution is at Rs.230 and for last three month is Rs.120 .If on an average
we take 10-12% of this as a risk free return then it comes out anywhere between Rs.
14-16 which is margin at 0% risk.
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R.D. Engineering College
January 2009
3,000.00
2,500.00
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
1-
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
04
08
12
16
02
06
10
14
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
The stock has seen a downtrend for past few months, we have taken Share High, Low
and closing price into consideration in order to determine the difference between Day
high and day low which is significantly.
During January the Support level was 1750, and the Resistance level was 2105, and
each time it has broken the resistance or support we have reported a move of 30-40
point downside or upside.
F e b r u ar y 2 009
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00
Hig h
1,000.00 L ow
C lose
500.00
0.00
9
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
00
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
-2
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
2-
02
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-
04
10
16
22
02
06
08
12
14
18
20
24
26
55
R.D. Engineering College
For the month of February, the stock declined due to some of the rumours about the
company accounting fudging case, but was resolved very well by the Management . It
has been able to break the previous month support level.
So it has attained new its 52 week low price level. Support level was 1500 points and
the Resistance level was 2050 points. Even the market sentiments were not going
with the stock.
March 2009
2,500.00
2,000.00
Resistance Level
1,500.00
High
1,000.00 Low
Close
500.00
0.00
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
09
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
3-
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18
20
March month remained positive for the market as a result this script continues to
achieve new high in this time frame. The gap between Low and High was
significantly low and closing price was closer to the highest price on all the trading
day. Support level was 1680 points and resistant level was 1900 points.
Looking at this data we have come to the conclusion that Educomp Solution followed
market trend and investors were optimistic and Profit booking was reasonably low.
56
R.D. Engineering College
JANUARY EQUITY CHARTING
W
eeklyChart5Jan-9Jan
3,000.00
2,5
00.00
2,000.00
1
,5
00.00
1
,000.00
5
00.00
0.00
1
/5/2009 1
/6/2009 1
/7
D/2
a0
t0
e9 1
/8/2009 1
/9/2009
WeeklyChart12Jan-16Jan
2,100.00
2,050.00
2,000.00
1,950.00
1,900.00
9
1,850.00
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2
6
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
D
ate
1
W
eeklyC
hart1
9Ja
n -2
3Ja
n
2
,50
0.0
0
2
,00
0.0
0
1
,50
0.0
0
1
,00
0.0
0
5
00.0
0
9
9
0
0
0
.00
0
0
2
2
2
/
/
1
9
3
/1
/2
/2
/2
/2
D
ate
1
W
eeklyChart27Jan-30Jan
1,820.00
1,800.00
1,780.00
1,760.00
1,740.00
1,720.00
1,700.00
9
9
0
1,680.00
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
2
/
/
7
0
8
/3
/2
/2
/2
D
Eate
1
58
R.D. Engineering College
FEBRUARY EQUITY CHARTING
SHRE PRICE
R
ESE
ARCHR
EPOR
T
2,000.00
1,500.00
1,000.00 Series1
50 0.00
9
9
0.0
0
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/3
/4
/6
/5
2
D
ATE
R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T
2,500.00
2,000.00
1,500.00 S
eries1
1,000.00
50 0.00
9
9
9
9
9
0.00
0
0
0
/2
/2
2
/2
/
0
3
/9
/1
/1
/1
/1
2
D
A TE
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R.D. Engineering College
• Analyst recommendation: FII taking in the position of share price for the time
period of the second week.
• There has been gradual increase in the the share price of the stock of educomp
solution.
• Resistance Level: Rs.2100
• Support Level: Rs.1900
SHARE PRICE
R
ESE
A R
CHR
EPOR
T
2,200.00
2,100.00
2,000.00
1,900.00 S
eries1
1,800.00
1,700.00
9
9
1,600.00
0
1,500.00 0
0
0
0
0
2
2
/2
/2
/2
/
/
7
0
6
/1
/1
/2
/1
/1
2
D
ATE
R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T
1,650.00
1,600.00
1,550.00 Series1
9
1,500.00
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
4
7
/2
/2
/2
/2
2
D
A TE
R
ESE
A R
CHR
EPOR
T
1,650.00
1,600.00
1,550.00 S
eries1
1,500.00
9
1,450.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/3
/5
/6
/4
3
D
ATE
R
ESE
A R
C HR
EPOR
T
1,800.00
1,700.00
1,600.00 Series1
1,500.00
9
1,400.00
9
1,300.00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
3
/9
/1
/1
/1
/1
3
D
A TE
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R.D. Engineering College
• LOW 1513 09-MAR-2009
• Rise of Rs.249 within a week
• Resistance Level: Rs.1750
• Support Level: Rs.1500
SHARE PRICE
R
ESE
ARCHR
EPOR
T
2,000.0
0
1,950.0
0
S
erie
s1
1,900.0
0
9
9
0
1,850.0
0
0
0
0
0
2
/2
2
/
/
7
0
6
/1
/1
/1
/1
/2
3
D
ATE
ResearchReport
2,250.00
2,200.00
2,1
50.00
2,1
00.00
Series1
2,050.00
2,000.00
1
,950.00
1
,900.00
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/200
9
Date
62
R.D. Engineering College
• HIGH 2255.00 27-MAR-2009
• LOW 1940 13-MAR-2009
• Rise of Rs.250 within a week
• Resistance Level: Rs.2300
• Support Level: Rs.2050
Financials
2nd quarter saw huge increase in contribution from SmartClass and Retail
line of business, going forward SmartClass, will continue to remain main driver
for growth for next three financial years.
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R.D. Engineering College
RATIO ANALYSIS:
Profitability Ratios Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06
%
Operating Profit 48.2 48.12 50.58
margin
Gross profit Margin 35.87 39.31 40.44
Net Profit Margin 25.51 25.54 25.89
Turnover Ratios
Inventory Turnover 185.88 32.75 30.1
Ratio
Debtor Turnover 2.29 2.16 2.08
Ratio
Fixed Asset Turnover 1.27 1.67 2.76
Ratio
Solvency Ratio
Current Ratio 5.41 4.5 5.33
Debt Equity Ratio 1.28 1.09 0.11
Interest Covering 21.69 25.81 37.13
Ratio
Valuation Ratio
P/E adjusted 35 110 na
P/BV 18 24 31
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R.D. Engineering College
PEG RATIO 2.625
Analysis of Ratios:-
Company’s Debt Equity Ratio has increased significantly from 0.11 in 2006 to
1.27 in 2008. Company has already made financial closure of secured debt for
capital expenditure requirement for K-12 business up to the year 2011. Company’
Interest coverage ratio remains comfortable as most of the debt of the company is
in the form of FCCB maturing in 2012. Company had high inventory turnover
ratio as company has built up inventory of installing computers for its SmartClass
and ICT business.
Future Outlook
• Net Profits are expected to rise 5 fold from Rs.700 million in 2008 to
3566 million in FY11giving a CAGR of 70%.
65
R.D. Engineering College
Growth Outlook
Company is likely to post very high growth rate for a long time. Revenue figures are
expected to show a CAGR of 70% for the period 2009-2011, 35% for the period
2011-2014 and 20% for the period 2014-2016.
We forecast strong 65% CAGR in Net Profits over FY09-FY11E and see limited risks to
estimates given.EBITDA margins are likely to improve as revenue share of high
margin retail and online business is likely to improve considerably. We expect ROE to
double and settle in the range between 30-35%.
Company has forward P/E of 7.5 for FY-2011 on constant prices while growth rate is
expected to be upwards of 30% for year FY11-FY14. Company will continue to shine
even in downturn as spending on Education and price levels are highly resilient to
economic downturns.Another positive for this company is its short payback period on
its investment as significant business comes from long term contracts of 5
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R.D. Engineering College
years.Company understands its strengths and challenges ahead to deal with these
challenges. Company has recognized four areas of opportunities/ strengths as under:
Risks:
• Due to high margins and nature of business, company might face competition
from new entrants.
• Company is in high growth phase; PEG (P/E to Growth) ratio will be an
important consideration for the stock. Any disappointment
on Earnings Growth numbers will see a downward price movement.
• Free cash flows to remain negative for a while; if credit market tightens or
company fails to deliver on expectation, raising fresh
funds will be a problem.
• If government reduces spending on education, earnings and growth potential are
likely to taper down.
• Company faces huge execution risks in its Edu-Infra business. Also
company has been very aggressive in its growth plans, both
Organic and Inorganic, and it would be very difficult to manage such
growth plans under unforeseen circumstances (E.g.-Key
Man Risk, Death of MD/Promoter).
Market is at the resistant level (SENSEX 10,300 points as on 15th May, 2009) and
this share price is highly correlated with market so for next 1 month Educomp share price
is expected to achieve a new support level of 2670 points but looking at the international
market we can say that international investors are bit optimistic so market can sustain at
this high for some more time.
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R.D. Engineering College
News from India
Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo Rate and CRR, which can keep
market interest for some more time. Inflation is all time Low (As on 14 th May 2009) etc.
Further stimulus announced made by the govt. of India can uplift the market to 15000,
but 4th quarters result and annual result would be the major focus for the investor and it
would also decide the direction of the market in the upcoming months.
REASONS:
1- Market fall is expected because it cannot sustain at this level for longer time
(Market as on 2nd April, 2009).
2- Company 35-40% Revenue of total revenue comes in this quarter alone.
3- 4th Quarter Results are expected in the month of April and it may be good news
for the investors, particular for education sector.
4- General Election is not far away and market will take some rest during this time
frame.
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R.D. Engineering College
“Looking at the above given information I projected that the
new Support Level for the Month of June will be 2700* points
and Resistance level will be 3500* points”.
Why Buy: Valuations at 22x FY09E, 12.25x FY2010E and 8.5x FY2011E, on the
lower side look cheap. More over company is expected to post CAGR of 50%+ in
revenues for next four years. EBITDA margins for 2QFY09 excluding extraordinary
forex losses were around 60%. Earnings have been forecasted keeping EBITDA on the
lower side at 45-50%.Higher EBITDA will lead to further revision in Earnings Estimate.
Continue recessionary conditions will make this stock more attractive relatively as
Education segment remains recession proof.
Downside Risks:
1. Short Term Market sentiments (High beta of 1.4)
2. Lower Earnings than market expectations
3. Execution/Regulatory/Key Man Risks
4. Tight credit conditions will pose difficulty for company to raise
more cash at cheaper interest rates.
Strengths:
• Global R&D facility.
• Retention of the man-power is the best in the industry.
• Impressive list of clientele.
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R.D. Engineering College
• Relatively lower receivable compared to the industry average.
Weaknesses:
• Low operating margin of the other group companies.
• Free floating stock is very less.
Opportunities:
• In the branded product category.
• In the consultancy area.
• In the emerging technology areas like Blue Tooth, WAP etc.
Threats:
• Increasing cost of human capital.
• Slowdown in the US economy.
• Appreciation of Indian Currency
• Will face fierce competition in the areas of e-business and ASP services.
The first phase of financial reforms resulted in the nationalization of 14 major banks in
1969 and resulted in a shift from Class banking to Mass banking. This in turn resulted in
a significant growth in the geographical coverage of banks. Every bank had to earmark a
minimum percentage of their loan portfolio to sectors identified as “priority sectors”. The
manufacturing sector also grew during the 1970s in protected environs and the banking
sector was a critical source. The next wave of reforms saw the nationalization of 6 more
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R.D. Engineering College
commercial banks in 1980. Since then the number of scheduled commercial banks
increased four-fold and the number of bank branches increased eight-fold.
After the second phase of financial sector reforms and liberalization of the sector in the
early nineties, the Public Sector Banks (PSB) s found it extremely difficult to compete
with the new private sector banks and the foreign banks. The new private sector banks
first made their appearance after the guidelines permitting them were issued in January
1993. Eight new private sector banks are presently in operation. These banks due to their
late start have access to state-of-the-art technology, which in turn helps them to save on
manpower costs and provide better services.
During the year 2000, the State Bank Of India (SBI) and its 7 associates accounted for a
25 percent share in deposits and 28.1 percent share in credit. The 20 nationalized banks
accounted for 53.2 percent of the deposits and 47.5 percent of credit during the same
period. The share of foreign banks (numbering 42), regional rural banks and other
scheduled commercial banks accounted for 5.7 percent, 3.9 percent and 12.2 percent
respectively in deposits and 8.41 percent, 3.14 percent and 12.85 percent respectively in
credit during the year 2000.
Current Scenario
The industry is currently in a transition phase. On the one hand, the PSBs, which are the
mainstay of the Indian Banking system are in the process of shedding their flab in terms
of excessive manpower, excessive non Performing Assets (Npas) and excessive
governmental equity, while on the other hand the private sector banks are consolidating
themselves through mergers and acquisitions.
PSBs, which currently account for more than 78 percent of total banking industry assets
are saddled with NPAs (a mind-boggling Rs 830 billion in 2000), falling revenues from
traditional sources, lack of modern technology and a massive workforce while the new
private sector banks are forging ahead and rewriting the traditional banking business
model by way of their sheer innovation and service. The PSBs are of course currently
working out challenging strategies even as 20 percent of their massive employee strength
71
R.D. Engineering College
has dwindled in the wake of the successful Voluntary Retirement Schemes (VRS)
schemes.
The private players however cannot match the PSB’s great reach, great size and access to
low cost deposits. Therefore one of the means for them to combat the PSBs has been
through the merger and acquisition (M& A) route. Over the last two years, the industry
has witnessed several such instances. For instance, Hdfc Bank’s merger with Times Bank
Icici Bank’s acquisition of ITC Classic, Gulf Bulls Finance and Bank of Madura.
Centurion Bank, Indusind Bank, Bank of Punjab, Vysya Bank are said to be on the
lookout. The UTI bank- Global Trust Bank merger however opened a pandora’s box and
brought about the realization that all was not well in the functioning of many of the
private sector banks.
Private sector Banks have pioneered internet banking, phone banking, anywhere banking,
mobile banking, debit cards, Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs) and combined various
other services and integrated them into the mainstream banking arena, while the PSBs are
still grappling with disgruntled employees in the aftermath of successful VRS schemes.
Also, following India’s commitment to the W To agreement in respect of the services
sector, foreign banks, including both new and the existing ones, have been permitted to
open up to 12 branches a year with effect from 1998-99 as against the earlier stipulation
of 8 branches.
Meanwhile the economic and corporate sector slowdown has led to an increasing number
of banks focusing on the retail segment. Many of them are also entering the new vistas of
Insurance. Banks with their phenomenal reach and a regular interface with the retail
investor are the best placed to enter into the insurance sector. Banks in India have been
allowed to provide fee-based insurance services without risk participation, invest in an
insurance company for providing infrastructure and services support and set up of a
separate joint-venture insurance company with risk participation.
72
R.D. Engineering College
Aggregate Performance of the Banking Industry
In FY01 the economic slowdown resulted in a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of
only 6.0 percent as against the previous year’s 6.4 percent. The WPI Index (a measure of
inflation) increased by 7.1 percent as against 3.3 percent in FY00. Similarly, money
supply (M3) grew by around 16.2 percent as against 14.6 percent a year ago.
The growth in aggregate deposits of the scheduled commercial banks at 15.4 percent in
FY01 percent was lower than that of 19.3 percent in the previous year, while the growth
in credit by SCBs slowed down to 15.6 percent in FY01 against 23 percent a year ago.
The industrial slowdown also affected the earnings of listed banks. The net profits of 20
listed banks dropped by 34.43 percent in the quarter ended March 2001. Net profits grew
by 40.75 percent in the first quarter of 2000-2001, but dropped to 4.56 percent in the
fourth quarter of 2000-2001.
On the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) front while most banks managed to fulfill the
norms, it was a feat achieved with its own share of difficulties. The CAR, which at
present is 9.0 percent, is likely to be hiked to 12.0 percent by the year 2004 based on the
Basle Committee recommendations. Any bank that wishes to grow its assets needs to also
shore up its capital at the same time so that its capital as a percentage of the risk-
weighted assets is maintained at the stipulated rate. While the IPO route was a much-
fancied one in the early ‘90s, the current scenario doesn’t look too attractive for bank
majors.
Consequently, banks have been forced to explore other avenues to shore up their capital
base. While some are wooing foreign partners to add to the capital others are employing
73
R.D. Engineering College
the M& A route. Many are also going in for right issues at prices considerably lower than
the market prices to woo the investors.
The two years, post the East Asian crises in 1997-98 saw a climb in the global interest
rates. It was only in the later half of FY01 that the US Fed cut interest rates. India has
however remained more or less insulated. The past 2 years in our country was
characterized by a mounting intention of the Reserve Bank Of India (RBI) to steadily
reduce interest rates resulting in a narrowing differential between global and domestic
rates.
The RBI has been affecting bank rate and CRR cuts at regular intervals to improve
liquidity and reduce rates. The only exception was in July 2000 when the RBI increased
the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to stem the fall in the rupee against the dollar. The steady
fall in the interest rates resulted in squeezed margins for the banks in general.
Governmental Policy
After the first phase and second phase of financial reforms, in the 1980s commercial
banks began to function in a highly regulated environment, with administered interest
rate structure, quantitative restrictions on credit flows, high reserve requirements and
reservation of a significant proportion of lendable resources for the priority and the
government sectors. The restrictive regulatory norms led to the credit rationing for the
private sector and the interest rate controls led to the unproductive use of credit and low
levels of investment and growth. The resultant ‘financial repression’ led to decline in
productivity and efficiency and erosion of profitability of the banking sector in general.
This was when the need to develop a sound commercial banking system was felt. This
was worked out mainly with the help of the recommendations of the Committee on the
Financial System (Chairman: Shri M. Narasimham), 1991. The resultant financial sector
reforms called for interest rate flexibility for banks, reduction in reserve requirements,
and a number of structural measures. Interest rates have thus been steadily deregulated in
the past few years with banks being free to fix their Prime Lending Rates(PLRs) and
74
R.D. Engineering College
deposit rates for most banking products. Credit market reforms included introduction of
new instruments of credit, changes in the credit delivery system and integration of
functional roles of diverse players, such as, banks, financial institutions and non-banking
financial companies (Nbfcs). Domestic Private Sector Banks were allowed to be set up,
PSBs were allowed to access the markets to shore up their Cars.
The allowing of PSBs to shed manpower and dilution of equity are moves that will lend
greater autonomy to the industry. In order to lend more depth to the capital markets the
RBI had in November 2000 also changed the capital market exposure norms from 5
percent of bank’s incremental deposits of the previous year to 5 percent of the bank’s
total domestic credit in the previous year. But this move did not have the desired effect,
as in, while most banks kept away almost completely from the capital markets, a few
private sector banks went overboard and exceeded limits and indulged in dubious stock
market deals. The chances of seeing banks making a comeback to the stock markets are
therefore quite unlikely in the near future.
The move to increase Foreign Direct Investment FDI limits to 49 percent from 20 percent
during the first quarter of this fiscal came as a welcome announcement to foreign players
wanting to get a foot hold in the Indian Markets by investing in willing Indian partners
who are starved of networth to meet CAR norms. Ceiling for FII investment in
companies was also increased from 24.0 percent to 49.0 percent and have been included
within the ambit of FDI investment.
The abolishment of interest tax of 2.0 percent in budget 2001-02 will help banks pass on
the benefit to the borrowers on new loans leading to reduced costs and easier lending
rates. Banks will also benefit on the existing loans wherever the interest tax cost element
has already been built into the terms of the loan. The reduction of interest rates on
various small savings schemes from 11 percent to 9.5 percent in Budget 2001-02 was a
much awaited move for the banking industry and in keeping with the reducing interest
rate scenario, however the small investor is not very happy with the move.
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R.D. Engineering College
Some of the not so good measures however like reducing the limit for tax deducted at
source (TDS) on interest income from deposits to Rs 2,500 from the earlier level of Rs
10,000, in Budget 2001-02, had met with disapproval from the banking fraternity who
feared that the move would prove counterproductive and lead to increased fragmentation
of deposits, increased volumes and transaction costs. The limit was thankfully partially
restored to Rs 5000 at the time of passing the Finance Bill in the Parliament.
April 2001-Credit Policy Implications The rationalization of export credit norms in will
bestow greater operational flexibility on banks, and also reduce the borrowing costs for
exporters. Thus this move could trigger exports growth in the future. Banks can also hope
to earn increased revenue with the interest paid by RBI on CRR balances being increased
from 4.0 percent to 6.0 percent.
The stock market scam brought out the unholy nexus between the Cooperative banks and
stockbrokers. In order to usher in greater prudence in their operations, the RBI has barred
Urban Cooperative Banks from financing the stock market operations and is also in the
process of setting up of a new apex supervisory body for them. Meanwhile the foreign
banks have a bone to pick with the RBI. The RBI had announced that forex loans are not
to be calculated as a part of Tier-1 Capital for drawing up exposure limits to companies
effective 1 April 2002. This will force foreign banks either to infuse fresh capital to
maintain the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) or pare their asset base. Further, the RBI has
also sought to keep foreign competition away from the nascent net banking segment in
India by allowing only Indian banks with a local physical presence, to offer Internet
banking
On the macro economic front, GDP is expected to grow by 6.0 to 6.5 percent while the
projected expansion in broad money (M3) for 2001-02 is about 14.5 percent. Credit and
deposits are both expected to grow by 15-16 percent in FY02. India's foreign exchange
reserves should reach US$50.0 billion in FY02 and the Indian rupee should hold steady.
The interest rates are likely to remain stable this fiscal based on an expected downward
trend in inflation rate, sluggish pace of non-oil imports and likelihood of declining global
interest rates. The domestic banking industry is forecasted to witness a higher degree of
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R.D. Engineering College
mergers and acquisitions in the future. Banks are likely to opt for the universal banking
approach with a stronger retail approach. Technology and superior customer service will
continue to be the imperatives for success in this industry.
Public Sector banks that imbibe new concepts in banking, turn tech savvy, leaner and
meaner post VRS and obtain more autonomy by keeping governmental stake to the
minimum can succeed in effectively taking on the private sector banks by virtue of their
sheer size. Weaker PSU banks are unlikely to survive in the long run. Consequently, they
are likely to be either acquired by stronger players or will be forced to look out for other
strategies to infuse greater capital and optimize their operations.
Foreign banks are likely to succeed in their niche markets and be the innovators in terms
of technology introduction in the domestic scenario. The outlook for the private sector
banks indeed looks to be more promising vis-à-vis other banks. While their focused
operations, lower but more productive employee force etc will stand them good, possible
acquisitions of PSU banks will definitely give them the much needed scale of operations
and access to lower cost of funds. These banks will continue to be the early technology
adopters in the industry, thus increasing their efficiencies. Also, they have been amongst
the first movers in the lucrative insurance segment. Already, banks such as Icici Bank
and Hdfc Bank have forged alliances with Prudential Life and Standard Life respectively.
This is one segment that is likely to witness a greater deal of action in the future. In the
near term, the low interest rate scenario is likely to affect the spreads of majors. This is
likely to result in a greater focus on better asset-liability management procedures.
Consequently, only banks that strive hard to increase their share of fee-based revenues
are likely to do better in the future.
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R.D. Engineering College
ICICI BANK:
ICICI Bank is India's second-largest bank with total assets of Rs. 3,744.10 billion (US$
77 billion) at December 31, 2008 and profit after tax Rs. 30.14 billion for the nine
months ended December 31, 2008. The Bank has a network of 1,419 branches and about
4,644 ATMs in India and presence in 18 countries. ICICI Bank offers a wide range of
banking products and financial services to corporate and retail customers through a
variety of delivery channels and through its specialized
subsidiaries and affiliates in the areas of investment banking, life and non-life insurance,
venture capital and asset management. The Bank currently has subsidiaries in the United
Kingdom, Russia and Canada, branches in United States, Singapore, Bahrain, Hong
Kong, Sri Lanka, Qatar and Dubai International Finance Centre and representative
offices in United Arab Emirates, China, South Africa, Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia
and Indonesia. Our UK subsidiary has established branches in Belgium and Germany.
ICICI Bank's equity shares are listed in India on Bombay Stock Exchange and the
National Stock Exchange of India Limited and its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs)
are listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
History
ICICI Bank was originally promoted in 1994 by ICICI Limited, an Indian financial
institution, and was its wholly-owned subsidiary. ICICI's shareholding in ICICI Bank
was reduced to 46% through a public offering of shares in India in fiscal 1998, an equity
offering in the form of ADRs listed on the NYSE in fiscal 2000, ICICI Bank's acquisition
of Bank of Madura Limited in an all-stock amalgamation in fiscal 2001, and secondary
market sales by ICICI to institutional investors in fiscal 2001 and fiscal 2002. ICICI was
formed in 1955 at the initiative of the World Bank, the Government of India and
representatives of Indian industry. The principal objective was to create a development
financial institution for providing medium-term and long-term project financing to Indian
businesses. In the 1990s, ICICI transformed its business from a development financial
institution offering only project finance to a diversified financial services group offering
a wide variety of products and services, both directly and through a number of
subsidiaries and affiliates like ICICI Bank. In 1999, ICICI become the first Indian
company and the first bank or financial institution from non-Japan Asia to be listed on
the NYSE.
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R.D. Engineering College
After consideration of various corporate structuring alternatives in the context of the
emerging competitive scenario in the Indian banking industry, and the move towards
universal banking, the managements of ICICI and ICICI Bank formed the view that the
merger of ICICI with ICICI Bank would be the optimal strategic alternative for both
entities, and would create the optimal legal structure for the ICICI group's universal
banking strategy. The merger would enhance value for ICICI shareholders through the
merged entity's access to low-cost deposits, greater opportunities for earning fee-based
income and the ability to participate in the payments system and provide transaction-
banking services. The merger would enhance value for ICICI Bank shareholders through
a large capital base and scale of operations, seamless access to ICICI's strong corporate
relationships built up over five decades, entry into new business segments, higher market
share in various business segments, particularly fee-based services, and access to the vast
talent pool of ICICI and its subsidiaries.
In October 2001, the Boards of Directors of ICICI and ICICI Bank approved
the merger of ICICI and two of its wholly-owned retail finance subsidiaries, ICICI
Personal Financial Services Limited and ICICI Capital Services Limited, with ICICI
Bank. The merger was approved by shareholders of ICICI and ICICI Bank in January
2002, by the High Court of Gujarat at Ahmedabad in March 2002, and by the High Court
of Judicature at Mumbai and the Reserve Bank of India in April 2002. Consequent to the
merger, the ICICI group's financing and banking operations, both wholesale and retail,
have been integrated in a single entity.
SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES
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• ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited ICICI Securities
Holdings Inc.2
• ICICI Prudential Trust Limited ICICI Securities Inc.3
• ICICI Venture Funds Management Company Limited ICICI International
Limited
• ICICI Home Finance Company Limited
• ICICI Investment Management Company Limited
• ICICI Trusteeship Services Limited
Recent developments
• Completed Rs200b follow on offering
• Amalgamated Sangli Bank with itself
Board Members
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➢ Ms. Chanda Kochhar, Joint Managing Director & Chief Financial Officer
SHARE DATA
Company Name ICICI BANK
Market Cap Rs. 389.03B
Price Rs.349.45
BSE Sensex 9459.34
BSE Code 532174
NSE Code INE090A01013
Face Value Rs.10
52-Week High/Low Rs. 960.90/252.75
Beta of the Company 1.60
Returns1 Year -56.81 %
Weightage in SENSEX 5.32
Co-efficient of Determination 0.79
(R^2)
Free-float adj. factor as on 1
31/04/09
Index BSE 100 ,BSE Mid Cap
Group A
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MFs invested in this company
Scheme % of scheme asset size
Templeton Fixed Horizon Fund 99.95
Series 1 - 13 M - Institutional
Plan - Dividend
Grindlays Fixed Maturity Plan - 99.35
7 - A - Growth
Grindlays Fixed Maturity Plan - 99.35
7 - B - Growth
Grindlays Fixed Maturity Plan - 99.35
7 - A - Dividend
Grindlays Fixed Maturity Plan - 99.35
7-B-
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• Contraction in standalone loan book during the year to Rs. 2,125.21 billion at
December 31, 2008
• Net NPA ratio of 1.95% at December 31, 2008
NRI's,OCB's& foreign
others
General Public
39.01, 59%
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MONTHWISE HIGH AND LOW VALUE OF SHARE
Month Monthly High in (Rs.) Monthly Lowin (Rs.)
Major Gain And Lose For ICICI BANK LTD. From Jan-08 To March-09
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13-Oct-08 364.1 425.3 61.20 16.81%
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Sep-08 45.074 7.452%
Oct-08 46.538 11.595%
Nov-08 34.183 8.763%
Dec-08 29.074 7.184%
Jan-09 30.163 7.009%
Feb-09 20.392 5.368%
Mar-09 21.093 6.963%
Technical Analysis :
1,600.00
1,400.00
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00 Close
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
10/1/2008
11/1/2008
12/1/2008
1/1/2008
3/1/2008
9/1/2008
1/1/2009
3/1/2009
2/1/2008
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/1/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
2/1/2009
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• Rumours started surfacing about the bank’s overseas exposure and a run on its
deposits as on Oct’08
• Such rumours prompted some depositors to withdraw money
• The rescue mission helped ICICI Bank’s stocks to recoup heavy losses.
Resistance
Level:Rs93
0
Support
Level:Rs 790
Monthly Data :
1000
Resistance Level:Rs 940
950
Share Price
900
850 Support Level: Rs. 805 Series1
800
750
700
5/ 08
5/ 0 8
5/ 08
10 8
20 8
12 8
14 8
16 8
18 8
22 8
24 8
26 8
28 8
30 8
8
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 00
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 0 0
5/ 00
5/ 0 0
00
5/ 00
20
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2/
4/
6/
8/
5/
Date ➢ Reason-
As we could see the downturn of the stock in the month of May’08 the reason
was allotment of Equity shares under the ESOS, 2000. They allotted around
2.5lakh equity shares of face value of Rs10.
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ICICI Bank's Performance On June'08
RESISTANCE LEVELRs.780
900
800
SUPPORT LEVEL: Rs. 730
700
Share Price
600
500
Series1
400
300
200
100
0
6/ 0 8
6/ 0 8
12 8
14 8
18 8
20 8
22 8
28 8
30 8
6/ 0 8
10 8
16 8
24 8
26 8
8
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
00
6/ 0 0
6/ 0 0
6/ 00
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2
/2
/2
2/
4/
6/
8/
6/
Date
➢ Reason- ICICI Bank informed about the payment of dividend & 14th Annual
General Meeting of the bank to be held in July 26, 2008, so we can say that the
share price would move up in July.
7/ 0 8
7/ 0 8
11 8
15 8
17 8
23 8
29 8
7/ 0 8
13 8
19 8
21 8
25 8
27 8
31 8
8
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
00
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 0 0
7/ 00
20
20
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
7/
Date
➢ Reason- As we could see the rise in share price after the mid of July due to bank
income increased by 1485.6 as compared to quarter ended June 30, 2008.
➢ Second thing was increase in Interest rates for various tenors of retail Fixed
➢ Deposits by 0.75% to 1.00% w.e.f from Aug 1st, 2008.
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ICICI Bank's performance On Aug'09
900 Resistance
800 Level:Rs 790
700 Support
Share Price
600 level:Rs630.
500
Series1
400
300
200
100
0
15 8
23 8
29 8
8/ 0 8
8/ 0 8
8/ 0 8
8/ 0 8
11 8
13 8
17 8
19 8
21 8
25 8
27 8
8
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
00
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 0 0
8/ 00
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
8/
Date
➢ Reason- ICICI had benefit from their Quarter 1st results, that’s why its price was
increased than they allotted equity shares to ESOS, 2000. But because of results
IC had manage some how.
800
700 Resistance Level:Rs. 725
600 Support Level: Rs. 550
Share Price
500
400 Series1
300
200
100
0
9/ 0 8
9/ 0 8
11 8
13 8
15 8
17 8
19 8
21 8
23 8
25 8
27 8
29 8
8
9/ 0 8
9/ 0 8
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
00
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 0 0
9/ 00
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
9/
Date
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Share Price Share Price
10
11 /1
/3 /2
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
/2 10 0 0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
11 0 08 /3 8
/2
/5 10 0 0
/2 /5 8
00 /2
11 8 10 0 0
/7 /7 8
/2 /2
0
of the organization.
11 0 10 0 0
/9 8 /9 8
/2 10 /20
11 0 0 /1 08
/1 8 1
1/ 10 /2 0
/1 08
11 2 00 3
Date
/1 10 /2 0
7/
2 0 /2 08
11 1
Da te
/1 08 10 /2 0
9/ /2 08
3
11 2 00 10 /2 0
/2 8 /2 08
1/ 5
11 2 00 10 /2 0
8 /2 08
/2 7
3/ 10 /2 0
ICICI Bank's Performance On Oct'08
20 /2 08
11 08 9
/2 10 /2 0
5/ /3 08
11 2 00 1/
8 20
/2 08
Series1
90
Support Level: Rs. 310
REASON:-There was a downfall in the prices because of the announcement of new BOD
300
250 Series1
200
150
100
50
0
/3/ 8
/5/ 8
/7 8
/9/ 8
/1 08
/13 08
/15 08
/17 08
/19 08
/21 08
/2 08
/25 08
/27 08
/29 08
/31 08
8
12 20 0
12 20 0
12 20 0
12 20 0
00
12 /2 0
12 /2 0
12 /2 0
12 /2 0
12 /2 0
12 20
12 /2 0
12 /2 0
12 /2 0
12 /2 0
12 /2 0
/2
/
/1/
3
12
Date
600
500 Resistance Level: Rs. 440
Share Price
1/ 0 9
11 9
13 9
15 9
17 9
19 9
21 9
23 9
25 9
27 9
29 9
9
1/ 0 9
1/ 0 9
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
00
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 0 0
1/ 00
20
20
20
20
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
3/
5/
7/
9/
1/
Date
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IC IC I B a n k's P erfo rm a n c e O n F e b '09
300
250 S eries 1
200
150
100
50
0
2/6 0 9
2/8 0 9
2/4 0 9
2/1 0 9
2/1 0 09
2/1 0 09
2/2 0 09
2/ 0 09
2/2 0 09
09
2/1 0 09
2/1 0 09
2/2 0 09
20
/2 0
0
/ 20
20
/2
/2
0/2
2
4/2
6/2
8/2
0/2
4/2
/
2/
6/
2/2
22
D a te
➢ Reasons: There was a decline in the share prices at the end of the month because
of the news that the bank tops the list of credit cards frauds & it amounts to losses
of around 11.47 cr.
250
c los ing pric e
200
150
100
50
0
3/ 0 9
3/ 0 9
3/ 00 9
3/ 0 9
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
9
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
3/ 0 09
00
20
20
20
2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
2/
4/
6/
8/
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
3/
Da te
An upward movement of the stock prices has been seen in the month of March because in
a ceremony held in Hong Kong, ICICI Bank has been awarded the following titles under
The Asset Triple A country awards for 2009:-
• Best Transaction Bank in India
• Best Trade Finance Bank in India
• Best Cash Management Bank in India
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• Best Domestic Custodian in India
Weekly Chart
540
Share Price in (Rs.)
520
500
Resistance Level: Rs.525
480
420
1/5/2009 1/6/2009 1/7/2009 1/8/2009 1/9/2009
Date
➢ Reason: ICICI Bank Ltd has informed BSE regarding a Press Release dated
December 31, 2008, titled "ICICI Bank cuts lending and deposit rates".
450
Share Price in (Rs.)
440
Resistance Level: Rs.442
430
420
Support Level: Rs408
410
400
390
1/12/2009 1/13/2009 1/14/2009 1/15/2009 1/16/2009
Date
➢ Reason: ICICI
Bank Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank
will be held on January 24, 2009, inter alia, to consider the approval of audited
accounts for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 (Q3).
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Weekly Chart(19 Jan-23 Jan)
420
410
Share Price in (Rs.)
400
390 Resistance Level: Rs380
380
370
360 Support Level: Rs368
350
340
330
1/19/2009 1/20/2009 1/21/2009 1/22/2009 1/23/2009
Date
410
Share Price in (Rs.)
400
390
380
370
360
1/27/2009 1/28/2009 Date 1/29/2009 1/30/2009
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FEBRUARY EQUITY CHARTING
Weekly Chart For the month of Feb:
410
405
Resistance Level’s. 402
400
Share Price
440
420
415
410
2/9/2009 2/10/2009 2/11/2009 2/12/2009 2/13/2009
Date
450
400 Resistance Level: Rs. 408
350 Support Level: Rs. 300
300
Share Price
250
Series1
200
150
100
50
0
2/16/2009 2/17/2009 2/18/2009 2/19/2009 2/20/2009
Date
➢ Reason: ICICI Bank has decided to follow the slow-moving pace in disbursing
auto loans, unless there is clarity on the repossession norms for vehicles. The lack
of clarity is the direct result of a Supreme Court judgment, which requires lenders
to follow the due process of law for recovering vehicles from defaulters.
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Performance of ICICI Bank from 24th feb to 27th feb '09
345
330 Series1
325
320
315
2/24/2009 2/25/2009 2/26/2009 2/27/2009
date
➢ Reason: There was an increase in prices after 25th Feb because the bank was
awarded Dun & Bradstreet Banking Award 2009.
310
300
Resistance Level: Rs. 300
290 Support Level: Rs. 270
Share price
280 Series1
270
260
250
3/2/2009 3/3/2009 3/4/2009 3/5/2009 3/6/2009
Date
➢ Reason: The RBI has taken a positive step by announcing the cut of 50 basis
points in repo as well as reverse repo rate, said Ms Chanda Kochhar, CEO-
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R.D. Engineering College
designate, ICICI Bank, said. The RBI has sought to create conditions conducive
to the consumption and investment, taking into account the global developments
and their impact on India: slowdown in growth on one hand and decline in
inflation on the other.
320
310
Resistance Level: Rs. 310
290
280 Series1
270
260
250
240
3/9/2009 3/10/2009 3/11/2009 3/12/2009 3/13/2009
date
➢ Reason: ICICI BANK made a recovery in this week after falling of more than
12% in the previous week due to positive global news and the effect of stimulus
package announced by the Govt. of India.
340
Resistance Level: Rs. 338
335 Support Level: Rs. 324
330
Share Price
325 Series1
320
315
310
3/16/2009 3/17/2009 3/18/2009 3/19/2009 3/20/2009
Date
➢ Reason: ICICI Bank is planning to set up a new entity to house its automated
teller machines (ATMs) as well as the point-of-sale (PoS) terminals, which
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R.D. Engineering College
accept credit and debit card payments. This is the first time that an Indian bank is
planning to transfer its ATM as well as PoS assets to a separate company.
390
380 Resistance Level: Rs. 382
370 Support level: 350
Share price
360
Series1
350
340
330
320
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/2009
date
➢ Reason: "Banks should start considering 0.50 per cent cut in interest rate ...
Possibly in a week or few weeks," Kamath said. He also said "Clearly, inflation is
nearing zero, but we are not able to bring down lending rate to single digit. So
there is a need to look at more policy action,".
Financials
➢ Operating profit ex-treasury is down 10% YoY and 26% QoQ
NII grew 2% YoY but declined 7% QoQ to Rs19.9b. Loans declined 1% YoY and 4%
QoQ to Rs2.1t. Reported margins were stable at 2.4%. Fee income at Rs13.5b was down
25% YoY and 28% QoQ. Treasury income rose from Rs2.8b in 3QFY08 to Rs9.8b in
3QFY09 - driving PAT. Treasury Income during the quarter includes Rs2.5b on MTM
reversal. Opex declined 18% YoY and was stable QoQ. Operating profit ex-treasury is
down 10% YoY and 26% QoQ in 3QFY09. Total deposits declined by 9% YoY and 6%
QoQ to Rs2. This is partly due to strategic slowdown and mainly due to flight of retail
deposits.
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➢ Asset quality deterioration continues
Reported gross NPAs declined 6% QoQ to Rs96b as management wrote off Rs16b of
gross NPAs during the quarter and sold off Rs2b of NPAs. NPA generation during the
quarter was Rs12b (stable for last 4-5 quarter). Due to the write off decision; provision
coverage declined to 54% from 58% a quarter ago. Net NPAs increased 4% QoQ despite
Rs10b of fresh provision during the quarter. Net NPAs now stand at 9% of net
worth.Management expects gross NPA build up to continue driven by rising defaults in
unsecure portfolios and CVs (account for 16% of total loan book). While so far the
corporate book is not showing any signs of weakness, it could throw up NPAs in FY10.
We have modelled NPA cost rising to 1.7% in FY09 and 1.9% in FY10 (from 1.3% in
FY08) and then falling
to 1.5% in FY11.
ICICI Canada’s total assets increased QoQ from USD5.5b to USD6.5b. Loan book
grew sharply 40% QoQ to USD3.6b. Earnings were CAD11m in 3QFY09 and CAD33m
in 9MFY09.
Analysis:
• The sales have increased by 0.014% in Q3.
• Operating profit has decreased on the assumption that either operating
expenses have increased or there is an increase in NPA’s.
• As there is an increase in gross profit & EPS, it shows that the demand of the
share will increase in the future.
RATIO ANALYSIS:-
Y/E MARCH 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Spreads
Analysis(%)
Avg. Yield-Earning 7.9 8.9 8.7 8.3 8.3
Assets
Avg.Cost- 6.4 7.4 7.2 6.4 6.2
Int.Bear,Liab.
Interest Spread 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.9 2
Net Interest Margin 2 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.8
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Pofitability
Ratios(%)
ROE 13.4 11.7 7.9 8.6 10.6
Adjusted ROE 13.4 12.9 8.8 9.7 12.1
Int. 74.4 76.3 73.6 67.9 66.1
Expended/int.Earne
d
Other Inc./Net 55.1 54.7 48.1 45.6 44.9
Income
Efficiency
Ratios(%)
Op. Exps./Net 57.9 53.3 45.6 44.1 43.6
Income
Empl. Cost/Op. 24.2 25.5 28.7 27.9 28.4
Exps.
Busi. Per Empl.(Rs 110.7 110.7 112.8 99.9 104.4
m)
NP per Empl.(Rs. 9.3 10.3 9.4 9.5 11.9
lac)
Asset-Liability
Profile(%)
Adv./Deposit Ratio 85 92.3 100.9 101 100.3
CASA Ratio % 21.8 26.1 28 31.5 33.5
Invest/Deposit 39.6 45.6 49.7 50.7 49.3
Ratio
G-Sec/Invest Ratio 73.8 67.6 62.3 59.2 60.8
Gross NPAs to Adv. 2.1 3.3 4.3 4.6 4.1
Net NPAs to Adv. 1 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.3
CAR 11.7 14 14.9 14 12.9
Tier 1 7.4 11.8 11.5 10.7 9.7
Valuation
Book Value(Rs.) 270 418 439 463 500
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R.D. Engineering College 2
Price-BV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
ABV(for Subs 256 397 415 440 480
Invst. And NPAs)
EPS(Rs.) 34.6 37.4 33.8 38.6 51.2
EPS Growth(%) 21.2 8 -9.7 14.3 32.6
Price-Earning (x) 10.5 9.7 10.8 9.4 7.1
Adj.Price- 6.9 6.4 7.1 5.9 4.4
Earnings(x)
COMPARATIVE VALUATIONS:-
RESULT ANALYSIS:-
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R.D. Engineering College 3
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3QFY0 3QFY0 YOY 2QFY0 QOQ FY08 FY09E FY10E
9 8 GR. 9 GR.
% %
Interest 78,361 79,118 78,350 0 3,07,88 3,13,14 3,01,68
Income 3 2 5
Interest 58,457 59,521 56,874 3 2,34,84 2,30,62 2,04,79
Expense 2 1 0
Net Interest 19,904 19,597 2 21,476 73,041 82,521 96,895
Income(NII)
Other 25,150 24,266 4 18,773 34 88,108 76,615 81,244
Income
- Fees 13,470 17,850 18,760 -28 66,270 66,270 69,584
- Treasury 9,760 2,820 246 -1,530 -738 8,150 4,000 5,000
Income(Incl
uding MTM)
- Others 1,920 3,596 1,543 24 13,688 6,345 6,660
Net Income 45,054 43,863 3 40,250 12 1,61,1 1,59,1 1,78,1
49 35 39
Total 17,341 21,276 -18 17,400 0 81,542 70,704 76,359
Operating
Costs
- Staff 5,030 5,705 -12 4,881 3 20,789 20,276 21,290
Costs
- Other 12,311 15,571 -21 12,520 -2 60,753 50,428 55,069
Opex
Operating 27,713 22,587 23 22,849 21 79,607 88,431 1,01,7
Profit 80
Provisions 10,080 7,600 33 9,235 9 29,046 37,684 42,990
PBT 17,633 14,987 18 13,614 30 50,561 50,747 58,790
Tax 4,910 2,681 83 3,472 41 8,984 13,194 15,873
Tax Payout 28 18 3 26 18 26 27
%
PAT 12,723 12,306 3 10,142 25 41,577 37,553 42,916
EPS 7 9 -24 10 -37 37 34 39
Deposits 20,90, 22,97, -9 22,34, -6 24,44, 21,50, 23,23,
650 790 020 311 993 073
Advances 21,25, 21,55, -1 22,19, -4 22,56, 21,69, 23,46,
210 170 850 161 423 198
- Retail 11,45,0 13,23,1 -13 12,25,0 -7 13,16,6 11,45,4 969
Advances 00 10 00 30 68
- 5,52,55 4,52,58 22 5,77,16 -4 4,77,46 5,68,17 992
Internationa 5 6 1 0 7
l Advances
Net NPA% 2 2 2 2 2 2
Yields On 10.4 10.9 10.2 10.7 10.3 9.8
Advances %
Cost of 7.5 7.8 7.0 7.4 7.2 6.4
Funds %
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INCOME
STATEMENT
Y/E MARCH 2,007 2,008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Interest Income 2,19,95 3,07,88 3,13,14 3,01,68 3,33,116
6 3 2 5
Interest 1,63,58 2,34,84 2,30,62 2,04,7 2,20,213
Expended 5 2 1 90
Net Interest 56,371 73,041 82,521 96,895 1,12,904
Income
Change (%) 44.3 29.4 13.0 17.4 16.5
Other Income 66,279 88,108 76,615 81,244 92,098
Net Income 1,25,65 1,61,14 1,59,13 1,78,1 2,05,002
0 9 5 39
Change (%) 41.3 28.3 -1.2 11.9 15.1
Operating Exp. 66,906 81,542 70,704 76,359 87,910
Operating 58,744 79,607 88,431 1,01,7 1,17,092
Income 80
Change (%) 51.1 35.5 11.1 15.1 15.0
Provisions & 22,294 29,046 37,684 42,990 39,114
Cont.
PBT 36,450 50,561 50,747 58,790 77,978
Tax 5,348 8,984 13,194 15,873 21,054
Tax Rate (%) 14.7 17.8 26.0 27.0 27.0
PAT 31,102 41,577 37,553 42,916 56,924
Change (%) 22.4 33.7 -9.7 14.3 32.6
Proposed 8,993 12,239 12,239 13,352 13,352
Dividend
BALANCE
SHEET
Y/E MARCH 2,007 2,008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Capital 8,993 11,127 11,127 11,127 11,127
Preference 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500
Capital
Reserve & 2,34,13 4,53,57 4,76,808 5,04,103 5,45,404
Surplus 9 5
Net worth 2,46,6 4,68,20 4,91,43 5,18,730 5,60,03
33 2 5 1
Deposits 23,05, 24,44,3 21,50,9 23,23,07 26,71,5
100 11 93 3 34
Change (%) 39.6 6.0 -12.0 8.0 15.0
Borrowings 7,06,61 8,63,98 9,11,719 9,87,038 10,73,48
3 6 5
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Other 1,88,23 2,21,45 2,81,244 3,57,180 4,53,619
Liabilities & 5 2
Prov.
Total Liabilities 34,46, 39,97,9 38,35,3 41,86,02 47,58,6
581 51 91 0 68
Current Assets 3,71,21 3,80,41 3,04,722 3,19,200 3,54,349
3 1
Investments 9,12,5 11,14,5 10,69,9 11,76,95 13,18,1
78 43 62 8 93
Change (%) 27.5 22.1 -4.0 10.0 12.0
Loans 19,58, 22,56,1 21,69,4 23,46,19 26,80,7
656 61 23 8 08
Change (%) 34.0 15.2 -3.8 8.1 14.3
Net Fixed 39,234 41,089 44,389 47,389 49,889
Assets
Other Assets 1,64,89 2,05,74 2,46,896 2,96,275 3,55,530
9 6
Total Assets 34,46, 39,97,9 38,35,3 41,86,02 47,58,6
581 51 91 0 68
Market is at the resistant level (SENSEX 14,500 points as on 20th Mayl, 2009)
and ICICI BANK share price is highly correlated with market so for next 10 days
ICICI BANK share price is expected to achieve a new support level of 650 points.
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R.D. Engineering College 7
“Looking at the above given information we can project the
new Support Level at 650* points and Resistance Level at
750* points for the Second and third week of June”.
REASONS:
• Market fall is expected because it cannot sustain at this level for longer time
(Market as on 2nd April, 2009).
• 4th Quarter Result would the deciding point for the share price of ICICI
BANK.
• General Election is not far away and market will take some rest during this
time frame.
• Loss from the overseas market by having exposure to foreign exchange may
be crucial point for the ICICI BANK share price.
Sector view:-
• YTD loan growth of 24% and deposit growth of 21%. Concerns on
slowing economic growth.
• Selective buying favoring banks with higher earnings
visibility and reasonable valuations.
SWOT ANALYSIS
➢ STRENGHTS:
1) Online Services: ICICI Bank provides online services of all it’s banking facilities.
It also provides D-Mart account facilities on-line, so a person can access his account
from anywhere he is.
[D-Mart is a dematerialized account opened by a salaried person for purchase & sale
of shares of different companies.]
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R.D. Engineering College 9
2) Advanced Infrastructure: Branches of ICICI Bank are well equipped with
advanced technology to provide the customers with taster banking services. All the
computerized machines are located in suitable manner & are very useful to the
customers & staff of the bank.
3) Friendly Staff: The staff of ICICI Bank in all branches is very friendly & help the
customers in all cases. They provide faster services along with bonding & personal
relationship with the customers.
4) 12 hrs. Banking services: Compared to other bank ICICI bank provides long hrs. of
services i.e. 8-8 services to the customers. This service is one of it’s kind & is very
helpful for the customers who are in urgent need of money.
5) Other Facilities to the Customers & Employees: ICICI Bank also provides other
facilities like drinking water facilities, proper sitting arrangements to the customers.
And there are also proper Ventilation & sanitary facilities for the employees of the
bank.
6) Late night ATM services: ICICI bank provides late night ATM services to the
customers. The ATM centers of ICICI bank works even after 11:00pm. at night in
certain branches.
➢ Weakness:
1) High Bank Service Charges: ICICI bank charges highly to customers for the
services provided by them when compared to other bank & that is why it is only in
the reach of higher class of society.
2) Less Credit Period: ICICI bank provides credit facilities but only upto limited
period. Even when the credit period is not over it sends reminder letters to the
customers which may annoy them.
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➢ OPPORTUNITIES:
1) Bank –Insurance services: The bank should also provide insurance services. That
means the bank can have a tie-up with a insurance company. The bank will advertise
& promote the different policies introduced by the insurance company & convince
their customers to buy insurance policies.
4) Associate with social cause: The bank can also associate itself with social causes
like providing relief aid patients, funding towards natural calamities. But this falls in
the 4th quadrant so the bank should neglect it.
➢ THREATS
1) Competition: ICICI Bank is facing tight competition locally as well as
internationally. Bank like CITI Bank, HSBC, ABM, Standered Chartered, HDFC also
provide equivalent facilities like ICICI do and also ICICI do not have consistency in
its international operation.
2) Net Services: ICICI Bank provides all kind of services on-line. There can be easy
access to the e-mail ids of the customers through wrong people. The confidential
information of the customers can be leaked easily through the e-mail ids.
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3) Decentralized Management: Each branch manager is given the authority of taking
decisions in their respective branches. The decisions made by different managers are
diverse and any one wrong decision can laid to heavy losses to the bank.
Currently, the sector is facing a major resource crunch. There is an obvious lack of
qualified skilled people/workers in construction firms, PMC firms, etc. Along with
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this, the manpower shortage is the shortage of availability of relevant statistics which
has raised an ambiguity in the minds of people as to how much construction activity
is actually taking place and one can not actually gauge the demand and supply trends
accurately. As a majority of developers are concerned about developing up-market
and high-class apartments/villas and penthouses, the opportunities and issues of
affordable, low cost housing in India have been ignored so far, as a result there is a
dearth of low cost affordable units. Also, one of the negative versions of Indian real
estate industry is that there is not much respect for sustainability so the concept of
green buildings, proper waste disposal methods and the longevity of the product are
often ignored.
UNITECH
COMPANY PROFILE:-
Unitech Ltd. Established in 1971 by a group of technocrats led by Mr. Ramesh
Chandra, Unitech has over the last three decades emerged as one of the leading
business houses in India. Apart from the fl agship business of real estate development,
the group has interests in varied businesses such as Fund management, Infrastructure
development and Transmission tower manufacturing. The Group has recently
ventured into mobile telecom business.
The Group’s fl agship company Unitech Limited is a leading real estate
developer in India with a market capitalization of around USD 6 billion. Unitech has
been at the forefront of the rapid transformation of Indian real estate sector in the
recent years.
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The Company was incorporated on 9th February1971 as United Technical
Consultants Pvt. Ltd., and was converted into a public Limited Company on 3rd
October1985. The company carries on construction of industrial projects on a
turnkey basis and execution of Housing Projects and export orders.
The Company was promoted by a group of technocrats, proficient in the field of soil
and foundation engineering and managed By Professionals. The Company
undertakes projects both in India and Abroad.
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UnitechSharePrice from01-Jan-08 to31-Mar-09
Resistanc
600 e level
500 400
Price
400
300
200
Support
100
Level 36
11/1/2008
10/1/2008
12/1/2008
1/1/2008
2/1/2008
3/1/2008
4/1/2008
6/1/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
9/1/2008
1/1/2009
2/1/2009
3/1/2009
5/1/2008
0
Date
11/1/2008
12/1/2008
0
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/1/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
9/1/2008
1/1/2009
2/1/2009
3/1/2009
OCTOBER 2008
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U n it e c h S h a r e P r ic e o f O c t - 0 8
150
100 Resistance
level 101.0
Price
50
0
10/1/08
10/3/08
10/7/08
10/9/08
10/5/08
10/11/08
10/17/08
10/19/08
10/21/08
10/25/08
10/27/08
10/29/08
10/13/08
10/15/08
10/23/08
10/31/08
Da te Support
level 30.00
NOVEMBER 2008
U ni t e c h S ha r e P r i c e o f N o v - 0 8 Resistance
60 level 56.00
40
Price
20
0
11/7/08
11/3/08
11/5/08
11/9/08
11/11/08
11/13/08
11/15/08
11/17/08
11/19/08
11/21/08
11/23/08
11/25/08
11/27/08
Support
level 23.00
Da t e
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DECEMBER 2008
U ni t ec h S ha r e P r i c e o f D ec - 0 8 Resistance
50 level 45.00
40
30
Price
20
10
0
08
08
08
08
08
Support
20
20
/20
/20
/20
/1/
/8/
/15
/22
/29
Da t e level 32.00
12
12
12
12
12
JANUARY 2009
Unite ch Share Price of Jan-09
50 Resistance
40 level 47.00
30
Price
20
10
0
09
09
9
00
00
00
20
Support
20
/2
/2
/2
1/
8/
15
22
29
1/
1/
Date
1/
1/
1/
level 26.50
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FEBRUARY 2009
Unite ch Share Price of Fe b-09 Resistance
33
32
31
level 32.10
30
Price
29
28
27
26
25
2/6/2009
2/2/2009
2/4/2009
2/8/2009
2/10/2009
2/14/2009
2/16/2009
2/18/2009
2/20/2009
2/22/2009
2/24/2009
2/26/2009
2/12/2009
Support
Date level 27.65
MARCH 2009
Unite ch Share Price of M ar-09
40 Resistance
30 level 36.40
Price
20
10
0
9
09
09
9
00
00
00
20
20
2
/2
2/
9/
/
16
23
30
3/
3/
Support
3/
3/
3/
Date
level 24.70
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• Inflation is decrease by .2.80 % from last month.
30
20
10
0
1/5/2009 1/6/2009 1/ 7/2009 1/8/2009 1/9/ 2009
D ate
Support
level 26.50
Se cond We e k of Jan'09
Resistance
36 level 34.80
34
32
Price
30
28 Support
26
1/12/2009 1/13/2009 1/14/2009 1/15/2009 1/16/2009
level 29.40
Date
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• Fall of rs. 05.50 within a week
Resistance
level 31.90
T h ir d W e e k Of Ja n '09
34
32
30
Price
28
26
24
1 /1 9/20 09 1 /20/20 09 1/21/20 0 9 1/22 /20 09 1/23/20 09
Support
DA t e
level 26.80
Forth We e k of Jan'09
Resistance
33 level 32.50
32
31
30
29
Price
28
27
26
25 Support
24
1/27/2009 1/28/2009 1/29/2009 1/30/2009 level 27.15
Date
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• HIGH 32.50 30-JAN-2009
• LOW 27.15 27-JAN-2009
• Fall of rs. 05.35 within a week
28
27.5
27
26.5 Support
2/2/2009 2/3/2009 2/4/2009 2/5/2009 2/6/2009
level 27.75
Date
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Se cond We e k of Fe b'09
33
32 Resistance
31 level 32.10
Price
30
29
28
27
2/9/2009 2/10/2009 2/11/2009 2/12/2009 2/13/2009 Support
Date level 31.10
30.5
30
29.5 Resistance
29
level 29.25
Price
28.5
28
27.5
27
26.5
2/16/2009 2/17/2009 2/18/2009 2/19/2009 2/20/2009
Date
Support
level 28.30
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Fo u r th W e e k o f Fe b '09
Resistance
29 level 28.90
28.8
28.6
28.4
Price
28.2
28
27.8
27.6
2/24/200 9 2/2 5/2 009 2 /2 6 /2 0 09 2/2 7/2 009
Support
Da te
level 28.10
27.5
Resistance
27
level 26.60
26.5
Price
26
25.5
25
24.5
3/2/2009 3/3/2009 3/4/2009 3/5/2009 3/6/2009
Date
Support
level 25.60
Resistance
27
26.5
level 26.50
26
25.5
Price
25
24.5
24
23.5
3/9/2009 3/10/2009 3/11/2009 3/12/2009 3/13/2009 Support
Date level 25.00
T hir d w e e k o f M ar '09
Resistance
27.5
level 27.10
27
26.5
Price
26
25.5
25
3/16/2009 3/17/2009 3/18/2009 3/19/2009 3/20/2009
Support
Date
level 25.95
20
10
0
3/23/2009 3/24/2009 3/25/2009 3/26/2009 3/27/2009
Date
Support
level 29.00
Margin:-The Average Margin for UNITECH LTD. In the last one year and 3 months
is 8.75% and Monthly Margin Range from 4-19%. The Margin at 0% Risk comes out
1.5% or Paisa 41 relating to current market price, considering 15% as the Risk free
margin for UNITECH LTD.
Financials:
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R.D. Engineering College 6
• Huge land bank spread across the country: Unitech has 13,923 acres
of land spread across all major cities of the country. Nearly 70% of the
land has been purchased from the government with clear titles.
Approximately 70 % of the land bank spreads across the four cities of
Kolkata (35%), NCR (14%), Chennai (12%), and Vizag (9%).
• Operating margins likely to fall but remain at higher levels: The
operating margin is likely to decline from the current 59.9% due to the
expected fall in property prices and a shift in focus towards low-margined
middle income housing. However, lower steel and cement prices are
expected to partially offset the decline in the margins.
• Short-term liquidity likely to improve: Unitech is struggling with short-
term liquidity concerns due to its high leverage and debt obligation of
Rs. 27 bn due by the end of FY09. We believe that it can tide over thecurrent
situation through the sale and monetization of its assets.
• Attractive valuation : Unitech’s stock currently trades at a
43.4%discount to our fair value estimate of Rs. 46, which incorporates the
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R.D. Engineering College 7
Margins(%)
EBITDA 50.00% 59.00 62.00%
%
NPM 40.50% 41.00 36.50%
%
Result Highlights
Unitech’s second quarter net profit declined 12.5% yoy to Rs. 3.6 bn
(Rs. 2.2 per share) in Q2’09, from Rs. 4.1 bn (Rs. 2.5 per share) in Q2’08. Net
profit margin declined by 396 bps from 40.5% in Q2’08 to 36.5% in Q2’09.
This was mainly driven by a 69.8% yoy rise in interest expenses, from
Rs.0.79 bn in Q2’08 to Rs.1.3 bn in Q2’09. We believe that the net profit
margin will drop further because of the high interest cost and the shift towards
low-margined middle income housing.
Outlook
The real estate market is facing a deep-rooted slowdown due to the
combination of the liquidity crisis and the high interest rates. Residential prices have
declined up to 25% from their peaks in the last few months, while commercial and
retail rentals have declined nearly 20 % in some major metropolitan areas.
Besides, banks have tightened the credit and reduced the loan-to-value amount for
home loans. Therefore, we expect the real estate market to respond with reduced
demand and a significant price downswing over the next 12-24 months.
We believe that in the prevailing low liquidity environment, the Company may
not be able to mobilise funds from commercial banks as the latter have stopped
lending to realty firms due to the high-risk weightage of the sector.
Therefore, the Company is actively looking to raise debt through private equity in
the current financial year to fund the ongoing development projects. Further, it is
also planning to reduce its debt burden through the the sale of office space, land,
and a hotel in the next 3-4 months. We expect that the aggressive
capitalstructure may force it to monetize some of its projects before they become
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R.D. Engineering College 0
economically optimal, thereby sacrificing some returns.
We believe that the Company’s operating margin will fall from the present 59.9%
due to its strategic shift of focus towards the low-margined middle income housing
(affordable homes) and the expected fall in property prices. In addition, housing
projects in locations such as Vizag will further pressurise the margin.
However, construction costs are falling due to the decline in cement and steel prices.
We expect these costs to come down further as commodity prices are decreasing
because of the expected global recession. Hence, the fall in property prices is
likely to offset the gains expected from the lower raw material costs. As a result,
the operating margin is expected to fall from the current levels.
We have arrived at the NAV per share of Rs. 96, which incorporates the
substantial decline in real estate prices and a 15% dilution of Unitech’s
stake at the project level. We have used a 17.2% cost of equity to value the
Company and have arrived at a WACC of 15.4%.
Unitech is one the large listed companies that does not disclose its
quarterly balance sheet and cash flow statement to the investors. As a
result, I have limited visibility of the Company’s earnings growth and
current liquidity situation. Considering the weak demand scenario and the limited
financial information available, I believe the stock will trade at a discount to its
NAV, which we have assumed at 25%.
My fair value estimate for the Company is therefore Rs. 46 per share, which
represents a 76.6% upside to the current share price. Hence, I upgrade our rating on
the stock from Hold to Buy.
Year To FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E CAGR(
March E %)
Rs.mn,except per
share data
Net Sales 6452 9266 32883 41404 15.40%
EBITDA 779 1806 20109 23687 23.70%
Net Profit 335 925 12667 16619 30.20%
Margins(%)
EBITDA 12.10 19.50 61.20 57.20 54.00 46.50%
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% % % % %
NPM 5.20% 10.00 38.50 40.10 30.70 27.30%
% % % %
Per Share Data (Rs.)
EPS 0.2 0.6 7.8 10.2 5.8 5 30.20%
PER(x) 14.2x 40.7x 62.6x 2.6x 4.5x 5.3x
RATIO ANALYSIS:-
Domestic News
Reserve Bank of India is expected to relax further Repo rate and CRR,
which can keep market interest for some more time. Inflation is also
under control and it is now at all time Low (As on 15th May 2009) etc.
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R.D. Engineering College 2
“Looking at the above given information we can project the new Support Level
at 77* points and Resistance Level at 107* points for the Second week of June”.
Beginning of June the news could be favorable but will the same Support
and Resistance Level maintain for the rest of the weeks; our team have
done research on it and made the conclusion that it will not be
maintaining the same levels.
REASONS:
• Market fall is expected because it can’t sustain at this level for longer time
(Market as on 2nd April, 2009).
• As it can be noticed from the 3rd quarter result of 2008 that the net profit is
just 13% of the total sales. So its effect will definitely be seen in the share
price of the company. The share price of the company can reduce in the
coming weeks due to this negative news.
• This is also one of our prediction for the coming weeks that the support level
of the share price will be at Rs77 and the resistance level of the share will be
at Rs107 due to the reason that the support and resistance level of the shares
in the past 15 weeks remain at a level below Rs77 and Rs 107.
• 4th Quarter Results are expected in the month of April and it is expected that
the result will be better in comparison to the last quarter. Price of the share
can move a little bit upward but it will remain in the support and resistance
level given above.
• Inflation data is going negative for the market, so it can affect the share price
of the company.
“Looking at the above given information our Team has projected new
Support Level for the week of 3rd and 4th will be Rs.75 and Resistance level
will be Rs.110 points”.
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Key Risks :-
Strengths
1. Unitech is the second largest engineering and construction companies in India
with a strong international presence in regions of South Asia, the Asia Pacific,
the Middle East, the Caspian, Africa and the United Kingdom. It has over 40
subsidiaries spread across the globe who have engaged with over 200 clients
implementing over 250 projects in over 40 countries.
2. Unitech has significant experience and very strong track record. Some of its
achievement are as follows
• It has constructed more than 8000 kilometers of pipelines
• It has constructed six million cubic meters of storage tanks and terminal
capacity
• It has executed 12 refinery modernization projects.
• It has executed onshore and offshore pipelines under extreme climatic
condition and difficult terrain including swampy and marshy terrain.
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Oil and gas projects including pipelines, storage tanks and terminals and
process facilities
• Infrastructure projects
• Power plants projects
• Civil construction projects including highways, flyovers, bridges,
elevated railroads, ports, MRTs and LRTs
• Specialty sectors like health care and industrial civil infrastructure
• Plant and facility management projects
1. Its core capabilities lie in process and plant engineering, heavy civil
engineering and building.
3. Unitech enjoys long term relationship with its reputed clients which reward it
with repeat orders from several of its domestic and international clients
despite increasing competitions. With this is in good position to capitalize on
ever increasing global demand for energy, infrastructure development and
building projects. Its acquisition of Sembawang and Simon carves which
increases its geographic reach of operations and providing a wider range of
services.
4. Unitech has a highly qualified and motivated employee base with a strong
proven management team. As on 31 March 2007, It employs directly or
indirectly over 3600 full time employees and 6,200 strong temporary contract
labor for their projects. There promoters has more than 25 years of experience
in the construction industry.
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5. Unitech has over 9000 pieces of construction and engineering equipment
which includes pipe laying equipment, recently added horizontal directional
drilling rigs, swamp excavators, pilling rigs. It also includes 15 spreads of
pipeline equipment capable of laying pipelines up to 56 inches in diameter. It
has potential to simultaneously execute several projects. It also has two
workshops and yards to maximize peak performance functioning, one in
Banmore which is in Madhya Pradesh and other which serves as base camp
and yard in Sungaipuran, Indonesia. Another advantage it sees owning and
managing a large fleet of sophisticated engineering equipment is that it helps
in maintain higher EBITDA margins.
Weakness
2. The company has grown by leaps and bounds in last few years which may
create obstacles to manage growth and reduce profitability and operations.
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5. Unitech is entering into a number of new businesses which require significant
expense and financial and operational resources. Its entry into real estate
development in India and providing onshore integrated drilling services in the
oil and gas sector may not prove unprofitable because of limited experience.
Unitech Investment in Pipavav Shipyard is exposed to execution risk since it
is yet to commence commercial operations.
Opportunities
2. Has vast international presence in pipeline projects related to oil and gas
sector
3. Increase in the level of road investments and BOT road projects will help in
booking more infrastructure orders.
4. Around the world like United States and whole of Europe has opted for 10%
blending of bio-ethanol take place in diesel and petrol within a period of 4 to
5 years. Brazil,
5. Unitech can take up to 100 meter water depth in offshore pipeline. There is a
large opportunity on account of the replacement of the old lines in Bombay
high and south basin sea
6. As oil has crossed $100 mark there will be large quantum of money coming
into oil producing nations mainly Middle East countries which will translate
into multiple increases in its own capex in Oil and Gas sector.
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7. There are huge opportunities in power with a ambitious target growth of 12%
in the eleventh plan. Also with Indo-US nuclear deal in the pipeline. Unitech
is in a good position to capitalize in this especially in hydel and nuclear which
are constructive intense projects.
Threats
3. Global and domestic hydrocarbon capital expenditure are prone to oil prices.
Any reduction in oil prices may reduce investment in hydrocarbon industry
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CHAPTER 6
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
The growing influence of global developments on the Indian economy was manifest
in the surge in capital inflows in 2007-08, a phenomenon observed earlier in other
emerging market economies. This is a natural concomitant of the robust
macroeconomic fundamentals like high growth, relative stability in prices, healthy
financial sector and high returns on investment. Sometimes, it also reflects the
rigidities in the economy, particularly the interest differentials.
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The strength, resilience and stability of the country’s external sector are reflected by
various indicators. These include a steady accretion to reserves, moderate levels of
current account deficit, changing composition of capital inflows, flexibility in
exchange rates, sustainable external debt levels with elongated maturity profile and
an increase in capital inflows.
The current account has followed an inverted “U” shaped pattern during the period
from 2001-02 to 2006-07, rising to a surplus of over 2 per cent of GDP in 2003-04.
Thereafter it has returned close to its post-1990s reform average, with a current
account deficit of 1.2 per cent in 2005-06 and 1.1 per cent of GDP in 2006-07.
For the Educomp solutions Company is likely to post very high growth rate for a long
time. Revenue figures are expected to show a CAGR of 70% for the period 2009-2011,
35% for the period 2011-2014 and 20% for the period 2014-2016.
We forecast strong 65% CAGR in Net Profits over FY09-FY11E and see limited risks
to estimates given.EBITDA margins are likely to improve as revenue share of high
margin retail and online business is likely to improve considerably. We expect ROE
to double and settle in the range between 30-35%.
For the Icici Bank NII grew 2% YoY but declined 7% QoQ to Rs19.9b. Loans declined
1% YoY and 4% QoQ to Rs2.1t. The sales have increased by 0.014% in Q3.Operating
profit has decreased on the assumption that either operating expenses have increased
or there is an increase in NPA’s.As there is an increase in gross profit & EPS, it
shows that the demand of the share will increase in the future.
And for the Unitech Unitech’s consolidated revenue declined 3% yoy, from Rs.
10.1 bn in Q2’08 to Rs. 9.8 bn in Q2’09, due to the slowdown in the construction
and
real estate sales. Short-term liquidity likely to improve. Operating margins likely to
fall but remain at higher levels. Huge land bank spread across the country. Strong
asset base offsets short-term liquidity concerns.
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Total Income has increased from Rs 14562.20 million for the quarter ended
December 31, 2007 to Rs 18228.70 million for the quarter ended December 31,
2008.Tata Power will hold 74% equity and IOCL will hold 26% equity in the
proposed Joint Venture Company.
So with this we find that market sentiments and the announcements effects the share
prices of the companies. and equity research helps to find out the support and
resistence level of the share prices and help us to predict the future prices of the
stocks.
ANNEXURE
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ANNEXURE
EDUCOMP SOLUTIONS
BALANCE SHEET
Educomp In Rs.
Solutions Cr.
Balance Sheet
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Sources Of Funds
Total Share Capital 4.47 4.47 15.96 15.99 17.25
Equity Share Capital 4.47 4.47 15.96 15.99 17.25
Share Application 0 0 0 0 0
Money
Preference Share 0 0 0 0 0
Capital
Reserves 12.59 18.92 74.35 98.71 269.57
Revaluation Reserves 0 0 0 0 0
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Total Liabilities
Application Of Funds
Gross Block 18.7 24.62 35.08 93.62 264.53
Less: Accum. 8.86 13.04 18.34 21.82 53.18
Depreciation
Net Block 9.84 11.58 16.74 71.8 211.35
Capital Work in 0.28 2 6.65 7.59 20.08
Progress
Investments 1.1 1.74 1.55 28.11 70.98
Inventories 0.85 1.01 1.74 3.25 1.41
Sundry Debtors 13.15 19.13 25.16 49.35 114.46
Cash and Bank 1.3 3.06 28.6 30.77 54.34
Balance
Total Current Assets 15.3 23.2 55.5 83.37 170.21
Loans and Advances 1.69 1.99 6.03 21.93 36.44
Fixed Deposits 0 0 31.06 64.19 224.69
Total CA, Loans & 16.99 25.19 92.59 169.49 431.34
Advances
Deffered Credit 0 0 0 0 0
Current Liabilities 8.22 12.74 6.63 23.73 70.11
Provisions 0 0 10.75 13.94 9.6
Total CL & Provisions 8.22 12.74 17.38 37.67 79.71
Net Current Assets 8.77 12.45 75.21 131.82 351.63
Miscellaneous 0 0 0.08 0.06 0.04
Expenses
19.99 27.77 100.23 239.38 654.08
Total Assets
Contingent Liabilities 0 0 17.44 17.95 29.24
Book Value (Rs) 38.15 52.3 56.59 71.75 166.31
Income
Sales Turnover 24.75 29.82 52.3 106.57 262.1
Excise Duty 0 0 0 0 0
Net Sales 24.75 29.82 52.3 106.57 262.1
Other Income 1.26 2.29 1.07 5.07 14.8
Stock Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0
Total Income 26.01 32.11 53.37 111.64 276.9
Expenditure
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Raw Materials 6.86 3.37 0 0 0
Power & Fuel Cost 0 0 0 0 0
Employee Cost 5.49 6.35 7.5 10.51 25.58
Other Manufacturing 0 0 9.54 30.42 79.73
Expenses
Selling and Admin 0 0 7.63 12.15 18.83
Expenses
Miscellaneous 6.06 6.74 1.17 2.2 11.62
Expenses
Preoperative Exp 0 0 0 0 0
Capitalised
Total Expenses 18.41 16.46 25.84 55.28 135.76
Operating Profit 6.34 13.36 26.46 51.29 126.34
PBDIT 7.6 15.65 27.53 56.36 141.14
Interest 0.38 0.55 0.71 1.99 5.82
PBDT 7.22 15.1 26.82 54.37 135.32
Depreciation 3.73 4.89 5.31 9.39 32.3
Other Written Off 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.02
Profit Before Tax 3.49 10.21 21.49 44.96 103
Extra-ordinary items -0.42 -0.06 -0.02 -0.74 0
PBT (Post Extra-ord 3.07 10.15 21.47 44.22 103
Items)
Tax 1.61 3.83 7.57 15.64 32.94
Reported Net Profit 1.89 6.33 13.92 28.65 70.06
Total Value Addition 11.55 13.09 25.85 55.28 135.76
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0
Equity Dividend 0 0 2.39 3.31 4.32
Corporate Dividend 0 0 0.34 0.56 0.73
Tax
Per share data (annualised)
Shares in issue (lakhs) 44.73 44.73 159.6 159.85 172.47
Earning Per Share 4.22 14.15 8.72 17.92 40.62
(Rs)
Equity Dividend (%) 0 0 15 20 25
Book Value (Rs) 38.15 52.3 56.59 71.75 166.31
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Net Cash (used in)/from -8.27 -14.61 -88.46 -215.72
Investing Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from 1.09 60.8 109.07 330.66
Financing Activities
Net (decrease)/increase In 1.27 57.43 35.3 183.04
Cash and Cash Equivalents
ICICI BANK
BALANCE SHEET
ICICI Bank In Rs.
Cr.
Balance Sheet
Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08 Mar '09
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Other Liabilities & 21,396.17 25,227.88 38,228.64 42,895.39 43,746.43
Provisions
Total Liabilities 1,67,659.4 2,51,388.9 3,44,658.1 3,99,795.0 3,79,300.9
2 5 2 8 6
Assets
Cash & Balances with RBI 6,344.90 8,934.37 18,706.88 29,377.53 17,536.33
Balance with Banks, 6,585.07 8,105.85 18,414.45 8,663.60 12,430.23
Money at Call
Advances 91,405.15 1,46,163.1 1,95,865.6 2,25,616.0 2,18,310.8
1 0 8 5
Investments 50,487.35 71,547.39 91,257.84 1,11,454.3 1,03,058.3
4 1
Gross Block 5,525.65 5,968.57 6,298.56 7,036.00 7,443.71
Accumulated Depreciation 1,487.61 1,987.85 2,375.14 2,927.11 3,642.09
Net Block 4,038.04 3,980.72 3,923.42 4,108.89 3,801.62
Capital Work In Progress 96.3 147.94 189.66 0 0
Other Assets 8,702.59 12,509.57 16,300.26 20,574.63 24,163.62
1,67,659.4 2,51,388.9 3,44,658.1 3,99,795.0 3,79,300.9
0 5 1 7 6
Total Assets
Contingent Liabilities 97,507.79 1,19,895.7 1,77,054.1 3,71,737.3 8,03,991.9
8 8 6 2
Bills for collection 9,803.67 15,025.21 22,717.23 29,377.55 36,678.71
Book Value (Rs) 170.35 249.55 270.37 417.64 445.17
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Miscellaneous Expenses 1,881.77 2,616.78 3,426.32 3,533.03 4,098.22
Preoperative Exp 0 0 0 0 0
Capitalised
Operating Expenses 3,177.78 5,274.23 8,849.86 10,855.18 10,795.14
Provisions & 1,072.25 1,409.35 1,638.66 1,170.05 1,931.10
Contingencies
10,820.92 16,281.03 26,847.02 35,509.47 35,452.17
Total Expenses
2,005.20 2,540.07 3,110.22 4,157.73 3,758.13
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Net Cash (used in)/from -1227.13 7350.9 15414.58 29964.82 1625.36
Financing Activities
Net (decrease)/increase 4459.34 4110.25 20081.1 683.55 -8074.57
In Cash and Cash
Equivalents
Opening Cash & Cash 8470.63 12929.97 17040.22 37357.58 38041.13
Equivalents
Closing Cash & Cash 12929.97 17040.22 37121.32 38041.13 29966.56
Equivalents
UNITECH
BALANCE SHEET
Top of Form
Bottom of Form
Unitech
Balance Sheet In Rs. Cr.
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Sources Of Funds
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Total Share Capital 12.49 12.49 12.49 162.34 324.68
Share Application 0 0 0 0 0
Money
Preference Share 0 0 0 0 0
Capital
Reserves 138.2 161.42 212.05 998.66 1,819.14
Revaluation Reserves 0 0 0 0 0
Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0 0
Expenses
Total Assets 282.33 497.73 911.3 4,766.06 10,261.35
59.87 376.88 434.87 1,640.51 2,325.69
Contingent Liabilities
Book Value (Rs) 120.67 139.27 179.81 14.3 13.21
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PROFIT AND LOSS
Unitech In Rs.
Cr.
Profit & Loss
account
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Income
Sales Turnover 373.95 509.33 653.13 2,441.74 2,486.79
Excise Duty 0 0 0 0 0
Expenditure
Raw Materials 27.41 58.33 65.45 80.53 26.46
Preoperative Exp 0 0 0 0 0
Capitalised
Total Expenses
Operating Profit 25.54 49.58 126.84 1,389.57 1,285.14
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PBDT 22.19 45.52 111.22 1,351.24 1,374.12
Depreciation 1.69 2.14 3.1 4.54 8.58
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0
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CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Unitech In Rs
Cr.
Cash Flow
Mar '04 Mar '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08
Investing Activities
Net Cash (used in)/from -0.04 116.5 347.25 2508.19 4033.01
Financing Activities
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Websites
• www.economictimes.com
• www.fmc.gov.in
• www.rbi.gov.in
• www.sebi.gov.in
• www.moneycontrol.com
• www.nseindia.com
• www.bseindia.com
• www.yahoofinance.com
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