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Where i indexes the scenario, with i =1 for the Low Ebola scenario and i = 2 is the High Ebola scenario.
The variables are defined as:
I
i
= Index value for a given country, other than Liberia, for Ebola scenario i
P
i
= Probability of a single undetected seed case in any given month that the epidemic is active,
for Ebola scenario i
N
i
= Number of cases within a month after the seed, given a single undetected seed case, for
Ebola scenario i
Y = Gross National Product, which we assume to be correlated with the countrys resilience and
the strength of its health system.
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The Gambia in the high Ebola scenario is the only instance of a country that has a larger expected index value
than Liberia.
50
L
i
=