the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Rod Blum for U.S.

Congress
Dual-Frame Survey of 402 LVs in Iowas First U.S. Congressional District Key Findings
October 2014

1
If the election for U.S. Congress were tomorrow, would
you vote for (ROTATED) Republican Rod Blum or
Democrat Pat Murphy?

(PROBED THOSE WHO SAID BLUM/MURPHY: AND
WOULD THAT BE DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY FOR
[INSERT CANDIDATE]?)

(PROBED THOSE WHO SAID UNDECIDED:
TOWARD WHICH CANDIDATE DO YOU LEAN?)

Oct. Aug.
1-2 11-12
40% 35% TOTAL ROD BLUM (NET)
30% 21% DEFINITELY ROD BLUM
9% 9% PROBABLY ROD BLUM
1% 5% LEAN ROD BLUM

39% 40% TOTAL PAT MURPHY (NET)
28% 20% DEFINITELY PAT MURPHY
9% 15% PROBABLY PAT MURPHY
2% 5% LEAN PAT MURPHY

19% 21% HARD UNDECIDED/DK (VOL.)

40%
39%
35%
40%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
August 11-12 Oct. 1-2
If the election for U.S. Congress were tomorrow, would you vote
for (ROTATED) Republican Rod Blum or Democrat Pat Murphy?
Total Murphy
Total Blum
TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Kellyanne Conway, President & CEO
the polling company, inc./WomanTrend

DATE: October 6, 2014

RE: Results and Analysis from Survey among Likely Voters in IA-1

Rod Blum leads Pat Murphy by a point,
40% to 39%, in the fight to succeed
Democrat Bruce Braley in Iowas First U.S.
Congressional District. A separate 19% of
likely voters are still undecided.

Blums vote share on the head-to-head
Congressional ballot represents a 5-
point (35% to 40%) increase from our
August 11-12 poll, also conducted
among likely voters. Meanwhile,
Murphy remains relatively consistent,
winning 39% in the current study and
40% in the previous poll.

Blum now edges out Murphy on both
the overall ballot (see below) as well
as 30% to 28% among voters
DEFINITELY supporting either
candidate, suggesting his momentum
is surging as the race enters its final
month.





the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of Rod Blum for U.S. Congress
Dual-Frame Survey of 402 LVs in Iowas First U.S. Congressional District Key Findings
October 2014

2
14. Who would you prefer to represent you in Congress
(ROTATED) a Republican Member of Congress who
will be a check and balance to Barack Obama and
Congressional Democrats; OR a Democrat Member of
Congress who will help Barack Obama and
Congressional Democrats pass their agenda?
(PROBED: And would that be STRONGLY or
SOMEWHAT prefer Democrat/Republican member?)

49% TOTAL PREFER REPUBLICAN (NET)
42% STRONGLY PREFER
7% SOMEWHAT PREFER

40% TOTAL PREFER DEMOCRAT (NET)
8% SOMEWHAT PREFER
33% STRONGLY PREFER

10% DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDE (VOL.)
1% REFUSED (VOL.)

40%
30%
39%
24%
19%
42%
OVERALL SELF-ID INDEPENDENTS
Head-to-Head Congressional Ballot
TOTAL BLUM TOTAL MURPHY UNDECIDED (VOL.)
First District Voters Want a Check and Balance in Congress on Barack Obama

Also encouraging for the Blum
campaign is the fact that undecided
voters in the race would rather
have a Republican representing
them in Congress to balance
President Obama and his
congressional allies by a nine-point
margin 49% - 40%.

First District voters strong
preference for a check on
President Obamas policies
could spell trouble for
Democrats running this Fall,
especially as voters are taking a
fresh look at Republican Rod
Blum in the closely contested
open-seat campaign for U.S.
Congress.



Blum Also Secures 30% to 24% Lead Among Self-Identified Independents



SURVEY METHODOLOGY
On behalf of Rod Blum for Congress, the polling company, inc./WomanTrend surveyed a
dual-frame (12.5% cell phones) sample of 402 likely voters in Iowas First Congressional District
from October 1-2, 2014. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence
level. This survey was conducted at a Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) phone
facility using live callers. Sampling controls were used to ensure that a proportional and
representative number of voters were interviewed from demographic groups as age, gender,
and region/county.