You Should Still Be Scared

of Pyongyang
Five reasons a quiet North Korea is still a
deadly North Korea.
BY JOEL S. WIT , JENNY TOWN O!TOBE" #, $%&'

It has (een &) *onths sin+e North Korea,s last *a-or

.rovo+ation, a nu+lear test in Fe(ruary $%&/. 0side 1ro* .eriodi+ rhetori+al
out(ursts 1ro* 2yon3yan3 that the 4orld has +o*e to 5no4 and love, North
Korea has sin+e then (een sur.risin3ly quiet6 no nu+lear tests, no lon3
ran3e ro+5et tests, and no atta+5s on South Korea. Leader Ki* Jon3
7n re*ains 0WOL. 0nd over the 4ee5end o1 O+t. ', North Korea,s nu*(er
t4o o8+ial 94an3 2yon3 So *et 4ith his South Korean +ounter.arts a
rare hi3hlevel e:+han3e (et4een the t4o sides. What a++ounts 1or
2yon3yan3,s relatively 3ood (ehavior;
Se+retary o1 State John Kerry has +lai*ed that the 7.S. .oli+y o1 <strate3i+
.atien+e< intended to tea+h North Korea to sto. (rea5in3 (ad (y isolatin3
and .ressurin3 the North is 4hy 2yon3yan3 has (een unusually quiet. But
nothin3 +ould (e 1urther 1ro* the truth. There is a lot 3oin3 on (eneath the
sur1a+e that .oints to serious dan3ers -ust over the hori=on that 4ill only
3et 4orse i1 the 7nited States +ontinues its stando8sh .oli+y.
9ere are >ve develo.*ents the 7nited States should 4orry a(out.
Figure 1. Completed and painted DPRK rocket gantry and pad, September 13, 201
!Digital"lobe#.
1. North Korea has upgraded its main rocket-launch site6 0 year o1
*a-or +onstru+tion at the site used to laun+h a lon3ran3e ro+5et in
?e+e*(er $%&$ see*s to (e >nishin3, +learin3 the de+5s 1or *ore laun+hes
i1 Ki* Jon3 7n 3ives the 4ord. 0 5ey .ro-e+t has (een i*.rovin3 the lau
n+h.ad and 3antry so it +an >re a ro+5et u. to @% *eters tall $% .er+ent
taller than the ones laun+hed in $%&$ and 4ith 3reater ran3e.
0dditionally, North Korean 4or5ers .ainted ne4 *etal .arts o1 the to4er
4ith rustresilient .ri*er .aint. 0 laun+h see*s unli5ely in the near ter*
sin+e the ne4 ro+5et is .ro(a(ly still in develo.*ent. But the ro+5et tested
in $%&$ is ready to 3o and it +ould (e laun+hed (y the end o1 $%&' i1 Ki*
3ives the order, tri33erin3 a ne4 +risis on the .eninsula.
Figure 2. Con$truction at t%e uranium enric%ment plant at &ongbyon.
2. North Korea is ramping up fssile material production for a
groing stockpile of nuclear eapons6 2yon3yan3 a..ears to (e
>nishin3 a si3ni>+ant +onstru+tion .ro3ra* to dou(le the si=e o1 a ne4
uraniu* enri+h*ent .lant at its Yon3(yon nu+lear resear+h +o*.le:. 0s a
result, the 1a+ility, a(le to .rodu+e hi3hly enri+hed uraniu* 1or nu+lear
(o*(s, +ould +hurn out t4i+e as *u+h >ssile *aterial in the 1uture. While
satellite i*a3ery +annot .eer inside the .lant, the North Koreans a..ear to
have (een installin3 ne4 +entri1u3es 5ey to the .rodu+tion .ro+ess. There
have (een *ove*ents o1 +rates and (o:es si3hted around the 1a+ility a
si3n that 4or5 is 3oin3 on inside and lon3, narro4 +rates have (een
s.otted that *ay +ontain the +entri1u3es the*selves. 0++ordin3 to nu+lear
e:.ert ?avid 0l(ri3ht, an e:.ansion o1 North Korea,s uraniu* .rodu+tion
+a.a+ity +ould allo4 it to (uild a *u+h lar3er nu+lear sto+5.ile than the
1e4er than &% 4ea.ons it is (elieved to have today.
Figure 3. '(termat% o( (ir$t)$tage rocket engine te$t (or t%e K*)0+ intercontinental balli$tic
mi$$ile.
!. "e#elopment of a mo$ile intercontinental $allistic missile %&'B()
has reached a ne stage* While there *ay not have (een any 1ulls+ale
lon3ran3e ro+5et laun+hes sin+e $%&$, 2yon3yan3 has (een in+hin3 alon3
in develo.in3 a *o(ile I!BA one that +an (e trans.orted and laun+hed
1ro* a lar3e tru+5. Over the .ast t4o years, North Korea has +ondu+ted a
series o1 ro+5et en3ine tests 1or this 4ea.on B4hi+h Western intelli3en+e
a3en+ies +all the KN%)C, 4hi+h +an rea+h the 7nited States. In 0u3ust,
satellites +au3ht the a1ter*ath o1 the *ost re+ent en3ine test at
2yon3yan3,s Sohae 1a+ility. BSi3ns at the test area, in+ludin3 (urnt
ve3etation, o.en doors on the stand 4here an en3ine 4ould (e hori=ontally
*ounted durin3 a test, and the .resen+e o1 the >rst sta3e o1 the KN%)
ro+5et indi+ate that a test too5 .la+e.C It is un5no4n ho4 su++ess1ul these
tests have (een so there *ay (e *ore to +o*e.
2yon3yan3 still has a lon3 4ay to 3o (e1ore it +an >eld a 4or5in3 I!BA.01ter
the ro+5et en3ine tests, North Korea 4ill also need to +ondu+t 1ulls+ale
laun+hes o1 the KN%). Ea+h en3ine test *ay (rin3 it a ste. +loser to>eldin3
an o.erational 4ea.on.
+. Perfecting solid-fuel technology for its missiles* While lar3ely
es+a.in3 .u(li+ noti+e, a series o1 shortran3e (allisti+ *issile tests that
too5 .la+e durin3 the su**er o1 $%&' +ould si3nal a *a-or te+hni+al
advan+e 1or North Korea,s *issile 1or+e6 the develo.*ent o1 solid1uel
te+hnolo3y. 2yon3yan3,s *issiles need to sit still 1or hours (e1ore their
tan5s +an (e >lled 4ith liquid 1uel, leavin3 the* vulnera(le to atta+5 and
destru+tion. Solid1uel *issiles, ho4ever, 4ould (e ready 1or a qui+5 laun+h
on+e Ki* 3ives the order and, as a result, 4ill (e *u+h *ore surviva(le.
While 2yon3yan3,s ho*e3ro4n version o1 a Soviet *issile >rst de.loyed
in the &D#%s (y the 7SS" +ould endan3er 5ey tar3ets in South Korea, the
ne4 te+hnolo3y *ay (e used in 1uture 3enerations o1 lon3erran3e 4ea.ons
threatenin3 other +ountries, in+ludin3 the 7nited States.
Figure . ,olybdenum production (actory one mont% be(ore commi$$ioning, -uly 2, 201
!Digital"lobe#.
@. (oly$denum production is groing6 0 *ineral i*.ortant in *odern
*etallur3i+ and hi3hte+h industrial .rodu+tion, *oly(denu* is a 5ey
in3redient in (uildin3 4ea.ons o1 *ass destru+tion and (allisti+ *issiles, as
4ell as ar*or 1or +onventional *ilitary vehi+les and artillery. Elo(al
.rodu+tion has e:.anded ra.idly over the .ast de+ade, 4ith the .ri+e
s5yro+5etin3 a(out @%% .er+ent, *a5in3 North Korea,s reserve o1 rou3hly
@F,%%% tons a valua(le +o**odity. 2yon3yan3 is ra*.in3 u. .rodu+tion
4ith the re+ent +o*.letion o1 a 1a+tory at the Aar+h @ Youth Aine, a
sho4+ase $,@%%a+re 1a+ility near the !hinese (order.
Aoly(denu* is also an i*.ortant .art o1 North Korea,s 3ro4in3 e+ono*i+
ties 4ith !hina. 2yon3yan3 e:.orts the over4hel*in3 *a-ority o1 its
*oly(denu* to Bei-in3, ta5in3 in handso*e 1orei3n +urren+y earnin3s 4hile
allo4in3 !hina to *aintain a do*inant role in inGuen+in3 the +o**odity,s
.ri+e on the 4orld *ar5et.
These are -ust a 1e4 si3ns o1 an in+reasin3ly 3ri* reality. 0s the O(a*a
ad*inistration holds >r* to its so+alled .rin+i.led a..roa+h in dealin3 4ith
North Korea, its ina+tion has served as ta+it a..roval o1 2yon3yan3,s
develo.*ent o1 4ea.ons o1 *ass destru+tion and (allisti+ *issiles. 0s
Washin3ton has 1ound in other .arts o1 the 4orld, i3norin3 a .ro(le* 4ill
not *a5e it 3o a4ay.
Posted by Thavam