A Syst ems Dynami c Appr oac h

A Syst ems Dynami c Appr oac h

t o Model i ng Ener gy Syst ems
t o Model i ng Ener gy Syst ems
i n Al ask a
i n Al ask a
David B. Hoffman, DBA
dhoffman@alaska.net
Anchorage is within 9.5 hours
of 90% of the industrialized
world
Anchorage population is over
300,000
Anchorage airport serves 46
airlines, 10 charters and 25
International all- cargo
operators
200 employers of engineers w/in
5 mi. of campus
w w w .uaa.al ask a.edu
How can rural communities
How can rural communities
best meet their growing
best meet their growing
energy needs?
energy needs?
Renewable &
Renewable &
Alternative
Alternative
Energy
Energy
Sources
Sources
Rail Belt region of Alaska
ALASKA
ALASKA
Anchorage
Anchorage
Fairbanks
Fairbanks
GEN
HEATING
TRANS
DIESEL
GAS
ALT. ENERGY
?
Suppl y
$
COSTS
FEEDBACK
SAVE
Syst em
Demand
ELECTRIC
ALT. ENERGY
?
WIND
GEOTH
HYDRO
STORAGE
NUCLEAR
N. GAS
SOLAR
BIOMASS
GEOTHERMAL
ENERGY
STORAGE &
MANAGEMENT
OCEAN/HYDRO
WIND
SOLAR
NUCLEAR
NATURAL GAS
BIOMASS
STORAGE
ENERGY
STORAGE &
MANAGEMENT
A pound of gasol i ne i s 35 t i mes
mor e ener gy t han a pound of l ead-
ac i d bat t er y.
Gasol i ne i s si x t i mes mor e ener gy
t han a pound of l i t hi um-i on
bat t er y. Sour c e: NYT, 8/18/2010
Gas Prices Jump to More Than $9
in Alaska Town
Golden Valley Electric Associations
NiCad Battery Energy Storage System
in Fairbanks
Golden Valley Electric Associations
NiCad Battery Energy Storage System
in Fairbanks
STORAGE
ENERGY
STORAGE &
MANAGEMENT
Source: Alaska Denali Commission
Legend: Number = Wind Speed, H = Hydro, W= Biomass, C = Coal,
Ge = Geothermal, Ga = Gas, T = Tidal
Map produced by Teri Moody, Alaska Department of Natural Resources and Zara Greene,
contractor with Alaska Energy Authority, March 2010
Legend: Number = Wind Speed, H = Hydro, W= Biomass, C = Coal,
Ge = Geothermal, Ga = Gas, T = Tidal
Map produced by Teri Moody, Alaska Department of Natural Resources and Zara Greene,
contractor with Alaska Energy Authority, March 2010
Sterling Engine
Tomatoes Growing
at Chena Hot Springs
Bernie Karl
Legend: Number = Wind Speed, H = Hydro, W= Biomass, C = Coal,
Ge = Geothermal, Ga = Gas, T = Tidal
Map produced by Teri Moody, Alaska Department of Natural Resources and Zara Greene,
contractor with Alaska Energy Authority, March 2010
City of Akutan
Akutan Volcano
on Akutan Island
Currently, the City of
Akutan (pop. 713) and
Trident Seafoods, a large
plant which operates
within the community,
use a combined peak of
7 MW of diesel-
generated power. The
citys power cost
exceeds $0.32 kWh.
Development of power
from the Akutan
geothermal project would
eliminate the
dependence on diesel
fuel, reduce carbon
emissions and promote
economic and cultural
sustainability of Akutan
and the region.
Rural Community Energy Model - RCEM07 v2
Rural Community Energy Model - RCEM07 v2
ELECTRIC
HEATING
TRANS
GEN
DEMAND
CONVERT
Basic Rural Community
Energy Model
GAS
SUPPLY
DIESEL
CONVERT
Basic Rural Community
Energy Model
$
COSTS
ELECTRIC
HEATING
TRANS
GEN
GAS
DEMAND
SUPPLY
DIESEL
SUPPLY
CONVERT
Rural Community
Energy Model
ELECTRIC
HEATING
TRANS
GEN
GAS
DEMAND
WIND
GEOTH
HYDRO
DIESEL
DEMAND
SUPPLY
CONVERT
Rural Community
Energy Model
ELECTRIC
HEATING
TRANS
GEN
GAS
GEOTH
DIESEL
DEMAND
CONVERT
Rural Community
Energy Model
SUPPLY
ELECTRIC
HEATING
TRANS
GEN
GAS
WIND
DIESEL
DEMAND
CONVERT
Rural Community
Energy Model
SUPPLY
ELECTRIC
HEATING
TRANS
GEN
GAS
HYDRO
DIESEL
DEMAND
SUPPLY
Rural Community
Energy Model
FEEDBACK
$
COSTS
ELECTRIC
HEATING
TRANS
GEN
GAS
WIND
GEOTH
HYDRO
DIESEL
Delays
Errors
(Rejects/Mistakes)
Variances
(Risk or Uncertainty)
Capacity
(Over / Under)
Feedback
(Feed-forward)
Late
Decisions
Littles
Law
Poor Decisions
Waste or
Limits
Missed
Opportunities
Bad or No
Information
Inconsistent
Corrections
Variable or
Intermittent
Errors
Dynamic
Limits
Problems
Mean Time
Between
Failures
Poor / No
Decisions
on Limits
Delays
(Transit)
The Five Critical Considerations
to System Functions
Rural Community Energy Model
RCEM07 v2B
Alternative Energy Source provides an alternative to
traditional oil as the source of both heat & electricity.
Rural Community Energy Model - RCEM07 v1
The goal is to meet a
communities energy
needs at the minimum
cost.
The challenges are:
The goal is to meet a
communities energy
needs at the minimum
cost.
The challenges are:
- Inefficiencies in use
- High cost of delivery
- Uncertainty/variability
in demand
- Loss/waste &
inefficiencies in the
system
- Possible conversions
- Storage of energy
- Costs of alternatives
SAVE
Cold Climate Housing Research Center
Existing Rural
Community Energy
System
Rural Community
Energy System
with New Energy Sources
Rural Community
Energy System
with New Energy Sources
& Adaptive Systems
Existing Rural
Community Energy
System
Rural Community
Energy System
with New Energy Sources
Rural Community
Energy System
with New Energy Sources
& Adaptive Systems
Rural Community
Energy System
with
Conser vat i on
At the levels
better energy solutions are necessary.
Individual
Family
Community
Nation
Globally
Thank You