KXGM 6302 Energy Efficiency

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CHAPTER 1:
EMISSION PRODUCTION

Summary

Emissions in the process utilization produce adverse effects on the environment that
influent human health, organism growth, climatic changes and so on. The Kyoto
protocol by the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCC) in
December 1997, prescribed legally binding greenhouse gas emission target about 5%
below their 1990 level. About 160 countries including Malaysia now adopt this
protocol. The electricity generation is one of the main contributors for emission in the
country. In order to calculate the potential emission by this activity, the type of fuel use
should be identified. Malaysia has changes fuel use gradually from 70% of gas, 15% of
coal, 10% of hydro, and 5% of petroleum in year 2000 to 40% of gas, 30% of hydro,
29% of coal, and only 1% of petroleum in the year of 2020. The changes on fuel type
have changes the pattern of emission production. This study attempts to predict the
pattern of emissions from 2002 to 2020 due to these changes. The calculation is based
on emissions for unit electricity generated and the percentages of fuel use for electricity
generation. The study found that, the electricity generation company has contributed
huge emissions from their power plants in this country.


1. Introduction

Over the past decades, it has been observed that there is an increasing atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases such carbon dioxide (CO
2
) and other emissions that
give negative impact to the environment such as sulfur dioxide (SO
2
), nitrogen oxide
(NO
x
) and carbon monoxide (CO). One of the main contributors of these gases is
generated by power generation because a conventional power stations burn fossil fuels
to produce electricity. Burning fossil fuels is releases the emissions such as mentioned
gasses which known can cause greenhouse gas emission effect, acid rain and other
negative impact to environmental and humankind.

CO
2
is a colorless, odorless gas and produced when any form of carbon is burned in an
excess of oxygen. Due to this reason, CO
2
greenhouse effect in the world has been
enhanced. This means that the atmosphere is trapping more heat that has to escape to
space. This enhancement has linked the greenhouse effect is causing global warming.
CO
2
is the largest contributor of greenhouse effect out of all the gasses produce by
human activities.

SO
2
is a colorless gas, from the family of sulfur oxides (SO
x
). It reacts on the surface of
a variety of atmosphere solid particles and can be oxidized within atmosphere water
droplets. Fossil fuel combustion is the main sources of SO
2
produce by human activities.

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NO
x
are a collective term used of two types of oxides of nitrogen namely nitric oxide
(NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO
2
). NO is a colorless, flammable gas with a slight odor.
NO
2
is a nonflammable gas with a detectable smell and in certain concentration will
highly toxic, which is in long time can cause serious lung damage. NO
2
is plays a major
role in the atmospheric reactions that produce ozone or smog. In the atmosphere, NO
2

will mix with water vapor producing nitric acid and deposited as acid rain.

CO is a colorless, odorless, poisonous gas. Exposure to CO reduces the blood's ability to
carry oxygen. CO is a product of incomplete burning of hydrocarbon-based fuels. CO
consists of a carbon atom and an oxygen atom linked together. During normal
combustion, each atom of carbon in the burning fuel joins with two atoms of oxygen
forming a harmless gas. When there is a lack of oxygen to ensure complete combustion
of the fuel, each atom of carbon links up with only one atom of oxygen forming carbon
monoxide gas.

Malaysia planning to reduce the production of CO
2
, SO
2
, NO
x
and CO in the country
but the data of production of these gasses is unavailable therefore the study attempts to
estimate potential production of these gases from electricity generation in this country.
With exact figure of these emissions, Malaysia can contribute to undermine the disaster
caused by these gases by maximizing of using renewable power plant.


2. Survey Data

The data used for this study are the electricity consumption data, percentage of fuel type
for electricity generation data and emissions of CO
2
. SO
2
, NO
x
and CO from fossil fuel
for a unit electricity generation data. These data are collected from the Refs. [1-3]. All
of the survey data are tabulated in Tables 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3.

Table 1.1
Electricity generation data
Year Total
(GWh)
1970 2175
1980 7912
1990 19 469
1991 21 442
1997 49 080
2000 52 300
2010 105 762
2020 195 253




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Table 1.2
Percentage of electricity generation based on fuel types
Year Coal
(%)
Petroleum
(%)
Gas
(%)
Hydro
(%)
2000 15.00 5.00 70.00 10.00
2010 18.00 2.00 50.00 30.00
2020 29.00 1.00 40.00 30.00


Table 1.3
CO
2
, SO
2
, NO
x
and CO emission from fossil fuel for a unit electricity generation
Fuels Emission (kg/kWh)
CO
2
SO
2
NO
x
CO
Coal 1.18 0.0139 0.0052 0.0002
Petroleum 0.85 0.0164 0.0025 0.0002
Gas 0.53 0.0005 0.0009 0.0005
Hydro 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Other 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000


3. Methodology

This study uses the scenario approach for the analysis. Schwartz [4], states that
scenarios are tools for ordering perceptions about alternative future environments and
the end result might not be an accurate picture of tomorrow, but can give a better
decision about the future. No matter how things might actually turn out, both the analyst
and the policy maker will have a scenario that resembles a given future and that will
help us think through both the opportunities and the consequences of that future.

This analysis is generally based on modeling methodologies to figure out the potential
emissions from electricity generation in Malaysia in the future. For this purpose,
initially, the electricity pattern and percentage type of fuel use for electricity generation
should be identified. Some of the data are already available but others have to be
calculated with respect to the county electricity consumption trend. The method used to
estimate the rest of the calculation data is polynomial curve fitting. The method is an
attempt to describe the relationship between variable x as the function of available data
and a response y. Which seeks to find some smooth curve that best fit the data, but does
not necessarily pass through any data points. Mathematically, a polynomial of order k in
x is expressed in the following form [5]:

k
k
x c x c x c c y ...
2
2 1 0
(1)

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The pattern of emission due to the fuel changes is potential production of emissions by
electricity generation in Malaysia. The common gasses are consisting CO
2
, SO
2
, NO
x

and CO. Emission pattern of the electricity generation can be calculated by the
following equation:

) ... (
3 3 2 2 1 1 n
p
n
i p i p i p i i i
Em PE Em PE Em PE Em PE EP EM (2)


4. Data Analysis

There are two types of data to be analyzed i.e. electricity consumption data and
percentage of fuel type data that mainly used for electricity generation. These fuels are
coal, petroleum, gas and hydro. Based on the data shown in Table 1.1, using Eq. (1), the
total energy consumption in Malaysia from year 2002 to year 2020 can be predicted by
the following equation:

9941 . 0 R , x x y
2 2
1
100.65 1333.2 5755.9 (3)

Based on the data shown in Table 1.2, using Eq. (1), the fuel mix of electricity
generation in Malaysia from the year 2002 to 2020 can be predicted. The percentage of
coal used for electricity generation in Malaysia can be predicted by the following
equation:

1 , 0004 0 001 0 15 0
2 2
2
R x . x . . y (4)

The percentage of petroleum used for electricity generation in Malaysia can be
predicted by the following equation:

1 , 0001 0 0.004 05 . 0
2 2
3
R x . x y (5)

The percentage of gas uses of electricity generation in Malaysia can be predicted by the
following equation:

1 , 0.0005 025 0 7 . 0
2 2
4
R x x . y (6)

The percentage of hydropower uses of electricity generation in Malaysia can be
predicted by the following equation:

1 , 001 0 0.03 0.1
2 2
5
R x . x y (7)

The results of the predicted data based on Equations (3), (4), (5), (6) and (7) from the
year 2002 to 2020 are tabulated in Table 1.4 and illustrated in Fig. 1.1. The fuel
percentage trend will be used to predict future potential emissions. The emissions
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produced from fuel burden for generating electricity is calculated in term kg/kWh of
electricity generation.

Table 1.4
Predicted electricity consumption and percentage fuel mix of electricity generation in
Malaysia

Year Total
(GWh)
Coal
(%)
Petroleum
(%)
Gas
(%)
Hydro
(%)
2002 66159 14.96 4.24 65.20 15.60
2003 71368 15.06 3.89 62.95 18.10
2004 76779 15.24 3.56 60.80 20.40
2005 82390 15.50 3.25 58.75 22.50
2006 88203 15.84 2.96 56.80 24.40
2007 94217 16.26 2.69 54.95 26.10
2008 100433 16.76 2.44 53.20 27.60
2009 106850 17.34 2.21 51.55 28.90
2010 113468 18.00 2.00 50.00 30.00
2011 120287 18.74 1.81 48.55 30.90
2012 127308 19.56 1.64 47.20 31.60
2013 134530 20.46 1.49 45.95 32.10
2014 141954 21.44 1.36 44.80 32.40
2015 149578 22.50 1.25 43.75 32.50
2016 157404 23.64 1.16 42.80 32.40
2017 165431 24.86 1.09 41.95 32.10
2018 173660 26.16 1.04 41.20 31.60
2019 182090 27.54 1.01 40.55 30.90
2020 190721 29.00 1.00 40.00 30.00


0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
8
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
8
2
0
2
0
Hydro
Gas
Petroleum
Coal
Fig 1.1. Predicted
electricity consumption and percentage fuel mix for electricity generation in Malaysia
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5. Results

The changes of energy sources for electricity generation have contributed for emissions
pattern in Malaysia. To replace hydropower the utilities have to increase the use of coal.
This replacement can be avoided if Malaysian government plans from now. The utilities
should switch this replacement to another renewable energy sources such as geothermal,
photovoltaic, solar thermal, wind and biomass. This can help to reduce emission in the
future and also helps Malaysian utilities to survive in the global market. This is due to
high cost of conserving emissions in the future. Conducting life cycle cost analysis of
conserved emissions and investment is necessary. However, this analysis is not
discussed in this study. Detail explanation of cost of conserved emissions is discussed
by Ref [6].

The pattern of emissions is a function of the total energy consumption multiplied by the
percentage of fuel mix and the amount of emissions by the fossil fuel from every unit of
electricity generation. The pattern of emissions by electricity generation in Malaysia is
tabulated in Table 1.5 and illustrated in Fig. 1.2.


0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
6
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
8
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
0
S
O
2
,

N
O
x
,
C
O

P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
70000000
80000000
90000000
100000000
110000000
120000000
C
O
2

P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
SO2
NOx
CO
CO2

Fig. 1.2. Pattern of emissions production by electricity generation in Malaysia


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Table 1.5
Potential emissions production by electricity generation in Malaysia
Year Emissions production (Ton)
CO
2
SO
2
NO
2
CO
2002 36 925 190 205 146 97 301 24 108
2003 38 853 310 217 390 103 264 25 168
2004 40 871 919 230 813 109 693 26 228
2005 42 999 341 245 625 116 664 27 292
2006 45 258 018 262 069 124 267 28 366
2007 47 670 787 280 395 132 593 29 457
2008 50 263 503 300 877 141 743 30 572
2009 53 062 992 323 804 151 821 31 718
2010 56 098 579 349 481 162 940 32 906
2011 59 401 570 378 236 175 220 34 143
2012 63 005 748 410 416 188 788 35 443
2013 66 945 895 446 377 203 775 36 814
2014 71 259 772 486 505 220 324 38 271
2015 75 985 624 531 189 238 577 39 825
2016 81 165 687 580 852 258 690 41 492
2017 86 842 673 635 925 280 822 43 285
2018 93 062 310 696 863 305 141 45 221
2019 99 871 266 764 132 331 819 47 316
2020 107 318 707 838 219 361 035 49 587



The results from Table 1.5 show that the total emissions production are about 1 216
862 891 ton of CO
2
, 8 184 313 ton of SO
2
, 3 704 479 ton of NO
x
and 667 212 ton of
CO. These are huge amount of emission for small developing country like Malaysia.


6. Conclusions

The emissions from electricity generation contributed the largest emission for the
country. Government intervention to abate this emission is urgently needed at the
present. The study also shows that emissions pattern from electricity generation of fossil
fuel to renewable fuel such as hydropower offers a solution and multiple benefits to
utility, society and most important to protect environment protection. Malaysian
government has to find ways to reduce these emissions, such as by introducing
emissions taxation which can be used to subsidies renewable energy power plant or for
replanting threes of the rain forest in the country. The data from the study can be a basis
for calculating cost benefit analysis for implementation of new renewable sources for
electricity generation and emission abatement program in Malaysia.

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Notation

c,k

Constant value
i
EM
Total emission for a unit electricity generation (kg,
Ton)
n
p
Em
Fossil fuel emission for a unit electricity generation of
fuel type n (kg)
i
EP
Electricity production in year i (GWh)
n
i
PE
Percentage of electricity generation in year i of fuel
type n (%)
x Year predicted year start
y Predicted value


References

[1] Economic Planning Unit. Study on energy policy analysis and planning to the year
2020. Prime Minister Department, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 1996.
[2] Department of Electricity & Gas Supply. Statistics of electricity supply industry in
Malaysia. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 1999.
[3] Jaafar MZ, Yusop YM. Malaysian energy sector and current energy supply and
demand forecasting, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 1998.
[4] Schwartz P. The Art of the Long View: Planning in an uncertain world, Doubleday,
New York, 1996.
[5] Klienbaum DG. Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods. ITP
co., USA, 1998.
[6] Krause F, Koomey J. Unit costs of carbon savings from urban trees, rural trees, and
electricity conservation: a utility cost perspective, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory,
University of California, Berkeley. 1990,