BINOMIAL PROBABILITIES

Bernoulli Trial: 2 outcomes usually called success and failure

If the probability of one event is p, then the probability of the other event is 1p


Binomial Probability distribution Were interested in: r successes in n attempts


Assume: 1. The number of trials (attempts), n, is fixed
2. The probability of success, p, is the same for each trial
3. Each trial is independent of all the other trials


Binomial Distribution the probability of r successes in n independent trials is:

P(n, r, p) =
n
r

p
r
1 p ( )
n r
where 0 r n

on the TI calculator: P(n, r, p) = binompdf n, p, r ( )

P(n, r, p) = binomcdf n, p, r ( ) - this is the probability of r or less
successes in n trials

where p is the probability of success in each trial


Example 1: A die is tossed 7 times in succession. Find the probability of

(a) getting a 6 in exactly 2 tosses:
n = 7, r = 2, p = 1/6 P(7, 2,1/ 6) =
7
2

1
6

2
5
6

5
= .234
or on calculator: binompdf (7,1/ 6, 2) = .234

(b) getting a 6 in at least 2 tosses:


0 7 1 6
(at least 2 successes in 7 trials) = 1 ( 1 successes in 7 trials)
7 7
1 1 1 5 1 5
1 7, 0, 7,1, 1 .330
0 1 6 6 6 6 6 6
P P
P P
s =

| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
+ = + =
` `
| | | | | | | |
\ . \ . \ . \ . \ . \ . ) \ . \ .
)

or
1 binomcdf 7,1/ 6,1 ( ) = .330
Example 2: A doctor estimates that a treatment is successful 75% of the time. Find the
probability that he will successfully treat exactly 5 of 6 patients.

p = .75, n = 6, r = 5

P(6, 5,.75) =
6
5

.75 ( )
5
.25 ( )
1
= binompdf (6,.75, 5) = .356


Example 3: How many throws of 2 dice are required to ensure that the probability of getting at
least two 6s is greater than 0.95?

P(two 6's) =
1
36
So, find n. The probability of getting one double-6 in n throws is
1 P(no double-6) = 1
35
36

n


So, find the least value of n so that 1
35
36

n
0.95

35
36

n
0.05
nlog
35
36

log(0.05) note: log

35
36

< 0 so change the inequality

n
log(0.05)
log
35
36

= 106.3 So, n = 107

Or

1 (no double-6) 1 (107,35/ 36, 0) P binompdf =