Topicality

2AC We Meet Dialogue

Guest worker logistics require implementation dialogue with the Mexican government
Edwards 1
(James R, is an Adjunct Fellow with Hudson Institute, Help Mexico, but Don't Hurt U.S. April 26, pg
online at http://rs.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=839//sd)
Mexican and American officials met in Washington recently to begin laying the groundwork for a good-neighbor
policy. However, Mexico's agenda includes a "guest worker" program and another amnesty for illegal aliens. We should
reject these as the wrong approach to improving our country's relations with Mexico. Certainly, economic engagement with
Mexico benefits both nations. Trade and private investment should be encouraged. The 1994 North American Free Trade
Agreement has helped strengthen Mexico economically. Mexico now is second only to Canada as America's biggest trading partner.

Plan includes dialogue Brocero proves normal means
Koven and Gotzke 10
(Steven G., Ph.D. Professor, Department of Urban & Public Affairs. Frank, co-author, American
Immigration Policy: Confronting the Nation's Challenges pg 134 online at
http://books.google.com/books?id=Pq04PFuRmQgC&pg=PA134&lpg=PA134&dq=diplomatic+notes+US+
Mexico+immigration+Bracero&source=bl&ots=h4VC_cEw_A&sig=PUZa0O_uT1bJX86V3suEd5tlB44&hl=e
n&sa=X&ei=0-
z5UdDhObOAygHh4IGYDw&ved=0CDUQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=diplomatic%20notes%20US%20Mexic
o%20immigration%20Bracero&f=false//sd)
The Bracero Program was a temporary contract labor program initiated in 1942 by an exchange of
diplomatic notes between the United States and Mexico. The program helped fill demand for labor during World War II
and began when the US government brought in a few hundred Mexican laborers to harvest sugar beets in California. The
Bracero Program expanded to other parts of the United States and by 1947 about 215.000 Mexican nationals were permitted to work as agricultural laborers; about 75,000 were permitted to work for the railroads. From 1948 to
1964 an average of 200,000 workers a year were used on large industrial farms, mostly in California. Texas, and other southwestern states (Ngai 2004, 139). In 1951 Congress passed Public Law 78,
which along with a diplomatic agreement with Mexico (Migrant Labor Agreement) governed the Bracero Program until 1964. The agreement
stipulated that Mexican contract workers would not be used to replace domestic workers or to reduce domestic
farm wages. Braceros were guaranteed transportation, housing, food, and repatriation. Under the law, wages were set at the domestic prevailing rate and
could not go under the minimum wage of 30 cents an hour during World War II and 50 cents an hour during the 1950s (Ngai 2004. 140). The federal
government assumed the role of labor contractor and was responsible for contracting and delivering workers to US employers.


Visa implementation includes dialogue for coordination
Rosenblum et al. 12
(Marc R. Rosenblum, Coordinator Specialist in Immigration Policy, William A. Kandel, Analyst in
Immigration Policy, Clare Ribando Seelke, Specialist in Latin American Affairs, Ruth Ellen Wasem,
Specialist in Immigration Policy, Mexican Migration to the United States: Policy and Trends June 7, pg
online at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42560.pdf//sd)
Given the sheer number of unauthorized Mexicans living in the United States, some maintain that Mexico should be involved in a discussion about how to
structure a possible legalization program. Whether such a program would provide unauthorized aliens the
opportunity for LPR status or for a temporary visa would have an impact on Mexicos demography and economy. The
handling of those aliens deemed ineligible for legalization could also benefit from a bilateral agreement. For example, Mexico could
assist with the identification of unauthorized Mexicans within the United States, many of whom lack up-to-date travel documents. Some
previous legalization proposals contained a requirement that foreign nationals return home to obtain return visas (i.e., a touch back
provision), and coordination and cooperation with Mexico could facilitate an orderly touch back process.115 On the other hand, the
United States alone would determine who among millions of unauthorized aliens may be eligible for legalization. While Mexico would be a large stakeholder in any legalization
program, such a program would not require an agreement with Mexico; and some may argue that a bilateral legalization program would not be in the national interest.
New advantages

Plan Texts

Plan: The United States federal government should implement a renewable,
uncapped, portable guest worker visa program for workers from Mexico.

Plan: The United States federal government should implement a renewable,
uncapped, portable guest worker visa program for H1-B, H2-A, and H2-B workers from
Mexico.


Housing
1AC

Construction Labor Shortages in the Status Quo Hamper Housing Market Recovery
Davidson 12, 11-28-12, Paul Davidson, Construction Industry Faces Worker Shortage,
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2012/11/28/construction-workers-shortage/1714471///joey

The construction industry shed 2.2 million workers between January 2007 and last year. So now
there's an overabundance of them eager for jobs, right? Wrong. Contractors are struggling with
shortages of workers as the home-building market comes to life and some commercial sectors
strengthen. The crunch is affecting a handful of states, including Texas, Arizona, Iowa and Florida. But it's expected to worsen and spread across the USA over the next few years, building officials say. The shortages are
already prompting builders to raid each other's job sites for workers. "It has been a shock for us," says Milton Chicas, who heads recruiting for
Wayne Bros., a Kannapolis, N.C.-based commercial builder in the Southeast. "There are so many folks out of work right now, we thought we were going
to have a large amount of individuals coming through the door." During the downturn, hundreds of thousands of laid-off construction workers left the field, retired or moved
to other states to find work, leaving some markets without an adequate supply for even the current moderate upswing in activi ty. After scrounging for odd jobs and hoping for an upturn, many workers retooled to become truck drivers, factory workers or roughnecks in the nation's
booming oil and natural gas fields. Meanwhile, Baby Boomers are retiring and fewer high school graduates are entering the field as parents and school officials promote a college education or training in high-tech fields such as computers. The result is a
widening gap between construction labor demand and supply in some areas. Yet construction payrolls are virtually unchanged fromtwo years
ago at 5.5 million. Contractors are coping with the added workload in part by paying employees more overtime, says Ken Simonson, chief economist of Associated General Contractors of America. Some companies are being cautious following a brutal slump, but others simply can't find
workers. Despite the industry's static employment, its jobless rate has dropped from 17.3% to 11.4% the past two years as 320,000 construction laborers stopped working or looking for work, Labor Department figures show. Twenty-nine percent of home builders surveyed by the National
Association of Home Builders in June reported some shortage of framing workers and 6% said there was a serious deficit only slightly less than in 2006 at the height of the home construction frenzy. By 2017, there could be a
shortage of 2 million commercial construction workers, according to the Construction Users Roundtable, a trade group. The shortfalls are
slowing the recovery in some states hit hardest by the housing crash. In Florida, permits to build single-family homes this year are up 25% fromlast year but remain
less than a quarter of the 2005 peak. In Tampa, crews that install drywall in new homes are especially scarce after many headed north when projects and wages plummeted in the recession, says Angela Phillian, owner of Angela Drywall. Walls can typicall y be installed in a house in a week,
but it's now taking up to two weeks or more, she says, because she often has to wait at least several days for a crew to free up from another job. She routinely contends with managers of rival companies who sidle up to a job site and poach her workers by offering them an extra dollar per
drywall board, a tactic Phillian says she's forced to deploy as well. " We're in a labor crisis right now," she says. Recently, she says, the builders that subcontract drywall services have agreed to pay more. That has allowed Phillian
and her competitors to return their pay rates to pre-recession levels of $5 per board after they fell to less than half that. And it's helping Phillian gradually lure drywall crews back to Tampa from Northern states such as New York. But it's squeezing Tampa builders such as John Fowke, who
says he's been hit recently with a 10% increase in both labor and material costs, forcing him to raise the sales prices of hi s houses. He worries that home appraisers won't increase their valuations in a still-distressed market, preventing buyers fromobtaining a loan. In
Arizona, which is also seeing a moderate turnaround after being battered by the housing crash, a
labor shortage is exacerbated by the new law that lets police check people's immigration status. Most
white laborers won't work in Arizona's brutal heat and many Hispanic construction workers have left
the state because of the law, says Buddy Satterfield, president of Shea Homes in Scottsdale. He says he's tried to coax
Hispanic workers fromTexas, Colorado and New Mexico, but "those guys won't come to Phoenix." Satterfield says he's building about 450 homes this year instead of the 750 he should be putting up based on demand. "It just takes so much effort," he says. "A trade (crew) doesn't show up
because they're on another job site and we have to reschedule." Although the housing bust wasn't nearly as severe in Texas, many construction workers left the industry to toil in the state's thriving oil and natural gas drill ing fields for higher pay and greater stability. With limited crews
putting up frames, Tilson Homes is building houses in six to eight months, two months longer than normal, says President Eddi e Martin. Commercial contractors are also struggling in some areas. Scott Norvell,
head of Master Builders of Iowa, a trade group, worries there won't be enough workers in the state to handle billions of doll ars in projects over the next few years to rebuild structures damaged by the 2011 floods. Redstone Painting & Finishes, which is turning a historical 12-story
building in Des Moines into a complex of offices, stores and condos, has been unable to add 14 workers to the 41 now on site, says company President Rob Knudsen. Instead, he says, existing employees are running up overtime, increasing his costs by 50% and reducing his profits by 25%.
Home builders "want workers that can hit the job site and go to work the first day," Courson says

Labor shortages cause housing market collapseincreasing immigrants boost it
NAHB 13
(National Association of Home Builders, IMMIGRANT WORKERS IN THE CONSTRUCTION LABOR FORCE
4/1 pg online at
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=734&genericContentID=200529&channelID=311//sd)
The turnaround presents new challenges for the construction industry. The Housing Market Index (HMI) surveys conducted by NAHB in January and March 2013 indicate that labor shortages are
quickly rising on home builders list of the most significant problems. More than half of all home builders
surveyed in January confirmed that they expected cost and labor availability to be one of the most
significant problems faced by builders in 2013. This stands in sharp contrast with the situation as recently as in 2012 and 2011 when only 30 and 13 percent of surveyed
NAHB members, respectively, reported cost and labor availability as their most prominent concern. More than half of all home builders surveyed in March reported that labor shortages over the past 6 months
caused them to pay higher wages and subcontractor bids and, consequently, raise home prices. Fifteen percent of
respondents had to turn down some projects and nine percent lost or cancelled sales as a result of recent labor shortages. The
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the month of January had the second highest number of unfilled positions in the last 17 months. This study examines where
construction workers come from by analyzing the most recent 2011 American Community Survey (ACS) from the Census Bureau and compares the findings with the results from the 2004 ACS, the last time the NAHB Economics
conducted a similar analysis. The results show that immigrants have been an important source of new recruits to the construction
industryaccounting for a large share of the overall labor force. The inflow of foreign born labor into
construction is cyclical and coincides with the overall housing activity. Their share was rising rapidly
during the housing boom years when labor shortages were widespread and serious. But even during the severe housing downturnand
a period of high unemployment the construction labor force continued to recruit new immigrants to
partially replace native and foreign born workers leaving the industry. Particularly, immigrants are concentrated in
some of the trades needed to build a home, like carpenters, painters, drywall/ceiling tile installers, brick masons, and
construction laborers trades that require less training and education but consistently register some of the highest
labor shortages in the HMI surveys.

Guest workers are key to housing constructionbut status quo visa program is capped
Stanely-Becker 13
(Tom, Government Research Assistant at University of Chicago, Yale Daily News, Peer-reviewed by Peter
Swenson, Yales C.M. Saden Professor of Political Science. Strange Bedfellows: Business, Labor, Guest
Workers, and Immigration Reform in the United States, 1986-2013 April 19
th
, pg online at
http://www.library.yale.edu/prizes/applebaum/papers/stanley-becker.pdf//sd)
Despite the lines of division, the negotiations ended in the March 29 accord on a new guest worker programto propose to the Gang of Eight. Confirmed during a conference call among Senator Schumer, Chamber President Donahue, and AFL-CIO President Trumka and transmitted to
White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough, the accord involves a significant set of compromises on the major disputed issues. The
agreement provides for the creation of a new W visa. 20,000 new visas would be available starting on April 1, 2015, with the number rising after that to a maximumof 200,000 a bargain
struck between the 400,000 demanded by business and the 10,000 acceded to by unions. The number of available W visas would expand to 75,000 by 2019, and
then fluctuate up to the maximum based on a formula taking into account the annual rate of change
in unemployment and job openings as well as employer demand for Wvisas. However, employers would also be able to apply for a special safety valve exception to the
annual cap if they engage in enhanced recruitment efforts, with employers in designated shortage occupations getting priority. While employers would be entitled to register full-time jobs not requiring a college degree for Wvisa holders, after trying first to recruit U.S. workers, no
openings could be registered in cities with unemployment over 8.5%, or following layoffs, or during a strike or lockout. Specific exceptions relating to the construction industry
would limit the number of W visas available to construction workers to a maximum of 33% of the
total amount, with a cap of 15,000, while also excluding construction jobs requiring more than a years
training, such as crane operators and electricians, from labor open to W visa holders. A guest worker applying for a Wvisa in response
to a specific posting must first work for the posting employer, but then would be free to change employers without losing legal status, with the right, after one year, to apply for permanent resident status. Employers must pay W visa
holders the highest prevailing wage in an occupation, as determined by the Department of Labor, or the actual wages earned by
other workers in the same job. W visa holders will be covered by state and federal employment laws,
to the same extent that other U.S. workers are covered. And further protection of foreign workers is provided
by rules requiring recruiters of foreign workers to register with the Secretary of Labor. Finally, the
agreement calls for the creation of a Bureau of Immigration and Labor Market Research within the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to conduct research, make annual recommendations on
whether the capon Wvisas should be adjusted, and develop a method for designating occupations with is a
shortage of workers.

Housing is key to the economyboosts consumer confidence and raises net GDP
Noguchi 13
(Yuki, nqa, As Housing Industry Builds Up, Other Sectors Follow NPR News 3/29/13 pg online at
http://www.npr.org/2013/03/29/175690983/as-housing-industry-builds-up-other-sectors-follow//sd)
When fortunes rise in the housing industry as they currently are it tends to lift sales for other businesses, too. Home construction,
sales and prices are all improving. And according to many analysts, the market is gaining steam. For nearly two decades, Scott Gillis has owned his own moving company, Great Scott Moving in Hyattsville, Md. Moving high season is just around the corner, which means Gillis is hiring. "I'm
doing it right now, I'm calling up all my old employees. Basically, I'm doing as much as possible 'cause I'm anticipating we' re having a good summer," Gillis says. That's in contrast to several years ago, when Great Scott moved more people into rental apartments than houses as its sales
and staff plunged by a third. Gillis says things have improved. But they're still very hard to predict. 'The Mood Is Much Better' "I think the mood is much better than it was five years ago. I think we are heading in a better way," he says. "But nobody knows the forecast." The
federal spending cuts known as the sequester don't help. And there are pockets of housing weakness.
Still, overriding all that, he says, is a sense that things are fundamentally better and improving. "When you start seeing larger offices going to smaller offices, it's an indicator that everybody's cutting
back. Now I see offices getting larger. And that's usually a good indicator," Gillis says. Part of what's driving the urge to move is that people are spending again. "This housing market recovery is a
tremendous boost to the economy," says Lawrence Yun, a chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. More On The Housing Industry Business Technology Upends Another Industry: Homebuilding Increase In
Sales And Low Inventory Indicate Housing Recovery Is In Full Swing March 21, 2013 Is The Housing Market Finally Back On Track? March 20, 2013 A Powerful Economic Boost Yun says residential construction, remodeling,
moving, gardening and furniture buying add up to about 20 percent of the country's g ross d omestic
pr oduct which is why the upward momentum in housing is such a powerful boost to the economy. But
it's not just that. Yun says by year end, U.S. homes will collectively be worth $3 trillion more than they were at the
bottom of the market. "And that will provide a significant boost in consumer spending" $100 billion in extra spending this year, to be
exact, he says.

Weak economy risks nuclear war
O Hanlon et al, 12
OHanlon 12 Kenneth G. Lieberthal, Director of the John L. Thornton China Center and Senior Fellow in
Foreign Policy and Global Economy and Development at the Brookings Institution, former Professor at
the University of Michigan *The Real National Security Threat: America's Debt, Los Angeles Times, July
10th, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/07/10-economy-foreign-policy-lieberthal-
ohanlon]

Alas, globalization and automation trends of the last generation have increasingly called the American dream into question for the working
classes. Another decade of underinvestment in what is required to remedy this situation will make an isolationist or populist president far more
likely because much of the country will question whether an internationalist role makes sense for America especially if it costs us well over
half a trillion dollars in defense spending annually yet seems correlated with more job losses. Lastly, American economic weakness
undercuts U.S. leadership abroad . Other countries sense our weakness and wonder about our purport 7ed
decline. If this perception becomes more widespread, and the case that we are in decline becomes more persuasive, countries will begin to
take actions that reflect their skepticism about America's future . Allies and friendswill doubt our
commitment and may pursue nuclear weapons for their own security, for example; adversaries will
sense opportunity and be less restrained in throwing around their weight in their own neighborhoods. The
crucial Persian Gulf and Western Pacific regions will likely become less stable . Major war will become more likely. When
running for president last time, Obama eloquently articulated big foreign policy visions: healing America's
breach with the Muslim world, controlling global climate change , dramatically curbing global
poverty through development aid, moving toward a world free of nuclear weapons . These were,
and remain, worthy if elusive goals. However, for Obama or his successor, there is now amuch more
urgent big-picture issue: restoring U.S. economic strength. Nothing else is really possible if that
fundamentalprerequisite to effective foreign policy is not reestablished .

Even if CIR passes, it will include quotas on guest workers ensures it cant solve
Helen Krieble, chair for Center for Opportunity, Protection and Fariness, 6-10-2013, Senate's
immigration 'gang' will bungle guest worker quotas, Mercury News,
http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_23429033/senates-immigration-gang-will-bungle-guest-
worker-quotas//nish
The latest Gang of Eight senators have proposed an immigration reform bill that could only have been
drafted in secret, because anyone else could have told them their plan would never work. The 867-page
bill would create another new government bureaucracy, the Immigration and Labor Market Research
Bureau, headed by a political appointee and charged with determining the number of workers needed
by a wide range of businesses in future years as if any government agency could ever know that. And
just to be sure the Gang of Eight pleased all its favorite interest groups, it didn't leave those decisions
entirely to the new bureau, but instead wrote specific quotas into the law itself: Agriculture gets
337,000 visas; construction gets 15,000 ; high-tech industries get 115,000; other specifically named
industries get 200,000. Small businesses that don't fit into these defined categories get none. Now the
Gang of Eight is busily trying to silence opposition, declaring that skeptics will be left behind as this
freight train leaves the station. Its members are working hard to defeat the dozens of amendments the
bill was sure to face once others finally started reading it. A system in which government determines
what types of businesses are eligible for visas, and how many workers they all need, cannot work. The
current system which nearly everyone agrees is badly broken is based on that same flawed
premise. That's why the number of H-2B seasonable workers is capped at 66,000, even though there
are several million such workers in the U.S. (which is why most are working illegally). That's why the
alphabet soup of visa programs includes A-3 visas for foreign diplomats, B-1 for nannies, H-1A for
agricultural workers, P for athletes, and dozens of others. It's why we have F-1 visas for students, but J-1
for professors. It's a mess, and it's why we have more than 12 million people in the U.S. illegally. Why
shouldn't all businesses, big and small, have a level playing field where employers and the free market
not government bureaucracy &mdsash; determine how many guest workers are needed? Even the
all-powerful Gang of Eight can never repeal the law of supply and demand. If they only allow 200,000
guest workers and the economy needs 250,000, the rest will come illegally perpetuating the very
problem Congress is trying to solve.

Internals

Guest workers key to the housing market
Hass 12, Doug Hass is the managing director The Skye Group, and was a representative at Labor and Employment Attorneys, Guest
Workers Spur Debate, http://www.construction-today.com/index.php/sections/columns/1018-guest-workers-spur-debate//joey

As the construction trades continue to bounce back from the severe recession and overhang of the
housing market downturn, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) and business groups have been waging an
important but overlooked battle over the future of the H-2B non-agricultural guest worker visa
program. On Feb. 10, 2012, the DOLs Employment and Training Administration and Wage and Hour Division announced that it would issue a new regulation requiring employers that import foreign guest workers for seasonal positions to make a greater effort to recruit
U.S. workers. Since then, the rule has become a hot button issue in both the federal courts and Congress. On April 23, a federal district court in Florida issued a temporary injunction against the implementation of the new regulation. Five compani es, along with trade groups in the
landscaping and forestry industries and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, challenged the regulation on largely procedural grounds. On June 14, 2012, a Senate Committee approved an appropriations bill amendment that, if passed, would effectively prevent the DOL from implementing the
new regulation. The district courts ruling remains on appeal, and the Senate bill is mired in the stalled budget process. The H-2B guest worker visa program allows employers to
hire non-skilled seasonal foreign workers, usually for less than a year, to come to the United States for
non-agriculture jobs. Although demand for foreign workers in the construction industry has slowed
along with the economy, the annual cap of 66,000 new visas has proven woefully inadequate. Many
seasonal businesses, including food processors, municipalities, parks, hotels, resorts and landscaping companies compete with the construction industry for H-2B
visas to fill seasonal needs. The H-2B visa program is one of the only foreign guest worker programs
available to the construction industry. The DOLs revised regulation would have a significant impact on the H-2B program. Under the regulation proposed by the DOL, employers would follow stricter guidelines in an
attempt to ensure that qualified U.S. workers are truly unavailable for jobs. The new regulations create a nationwide online registry where employers must post all potential H-2B jobs, and for longer periods. Under the current regulations, employers have no central registry and need only
post jobs for ten days as early as four months before their start dates. Under the new requirements, employers must recruit and hire qualified domestic workers until 21 days before the job start date. The long posting period necessarily complicates employers abilities to recruit and
transport sufficient numbers of foreign workers in advance of a project. The DOL also proposed ending the current practice of allowing employers to self-certify that they had searched unsuccessfully for U.S. workers. The revised regulation requires employers to consult formally with their
state workforce development agencies to oversee and document those recruitment efforts before the start of an H-2B contract. Employers would also be required to make any jobs available to U.S. workers they previously employed in those positions before seeking foreign workers
under an H-2B contract. This new model injects additional bureaucracy and costs in H2-B contracts for construction industry employers.




A revitalized labor market would independently revive the economy and assist the
housing market recovery
Gores 13, 6-19-13, Paul Gores received a M.A. of Journalism and B.A. in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and is an
independent writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Housing rebound key to economic recovery, JP Morgan executive says,
http://www.jsonline.com/business/housing-rebound-key-to-economic-recovery-jp-morgan-executive-says-b9937932z1-212253711.html//joey

The housing rebound is key to broadening the economic recovery , and it appears the residential real
estate market is positioned to keep growing, a JP Morgan Funds executive said Wednesday. "A home represents an important asset for all consumers, but especially for the
lower and middle consumers, where it represents 50% of all the assets," Anastasia V. Amoroso, vice president and global market strategist for JP Morgan Funds, said during a talk at the Country Springs Hotel in Waukesha.
Amoroso, addressing about 250 attending the annual Retirement Plan Investment Seminar sponsored by Mequon-based Spectrum Investment Advisors and the Wisconsin Institute of CPAs, said that nationally, home
prices are up about 11% year over year and increasing. The home-buying market is being driven in
part by rising rents, which are growing by about 4% a year. "Now it's much cheaper to actually buy a house than it is to rent one, so it's not surprising demand
has picked up," she said. She said foreclosures, which have been a drag on home prices, have been slowing. "As consumers are seeing home prices appreciate, they are further expecting home prices to appreciate, and they might
be buying a house sooner rather than later -- and especially as the interest rates are going up," Amoroso said. Lower household debt since the recession has made consumers more "resilient," she said. "You have consumer demand
that is coming back. You have expectations of higher prices, both from consumers and home builders, and you have banks that are all of a sudden a lot more supportive to this housing recovery," she said. "Housing
also can play a role in solving the most dogged problem in the recovery the weak labor market, she said.
Amoroso said that while the unemployment rate nationally is about 7.5%, the jobless rate for the construction
industry is almost twice as high, at 14%. Amoroso said that from start to finish, construction of a home typically involves 160 workers. "Think about what that does for job creation.
It's not to say every new home start that we break ground on is going to lead to 160 new jobs. But it certainly helps us make sure that those 160 individuals are going to be more gainfully employed if we have a housing recovery,
which is where we are today," Amoroso said. " The labor market is what's been holding consumer confidence hostage ." She said if
consumers can "shift from feeling pessimistic about the economy to actually feeling skeptical and after that feeling feeling optimistic, think about what that can do for the spending power that drives the U.S. economy." "We think
as the housing market improves, as the labor market improves, so can consumer confidence," Amoroso said. "And
that means that consumers are more willing to pay out for goods and services and also willing to pay out for a
share of earnings in the market." Amoroso also said corporations have paid down debt and are sitting on cash that will be deployed as capital spending once they become confident enough in
the economy and Washington D.C.'s handling of it. Among issues that have made corporate executives nervous: the worst recession since the 1930s, an up-and-down European debt crisis, the U.S. government's credit downgrade
since upgraded and the near miss on the "fiscal cliff."
Labor Shortage in Squo; CIR not sufficient to solve
Greenhouse 13, 4-4-13,
Steven Greenhouse is a graduate of Wesleyan University in Connecticut (1973), the Columbia University
Graduate School of Journalism (1975) and the New York University School of Law (1982) and is the labor
and workplace reporter for The New York Times, having held that beat since October 1995,
Construction Groups Criticize Limits in Guest Worker Deal,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/us/construction-groups-criticize-guest-worker-
deal.html?_r=0//joey

Several major construction industry groups are criticizing the agreement reached last week over how
many low-skilled guest workers should be granted visas each year, complaining that the proposed
limits were unrealistic. The trade associations, including Associated Builders and Contractors and the National Electrical
Contractors Association, issued a statement late Wednesday highlighting their concerns about the proposal between the U.S. Chamber of
Commerce and the A.F.L.-C.I.O. Related Many immigration experts expect that deal or much of it will become part of the immigration bill
being developed by a bipartisan group of eight senators, and a representative of the trade associations stressed on Thursday that the statement
was not an effort to jettison the immigration proposals but to suggest improvements. The Chamber-labor deal calls for admitting 20,000 guest
workers the first year, with the total climbing to 75,000 after four years, and future numbers adjusted according to the unemployment rate and
industry needs as determined by a new federal bureau. The agreement caps the number of guest construction workers admitted each year at
15,000, and in a bow to labor unions, bars admission for any higher-skilled workers like electricians, crane operators or elevator repair
technicians. We are deeply concerned with the size and the scope of the temporary guest worker
program in the proposal now being drafted by the Gang of Eight senators, the groups wrote in a
statement first reported by Politico. Capping the amount of visas for the construction industry at
only 15,000 in an industry that currently employs nearly six million workers is simply unrealistic and
destined to fail. The trade associations added that a program that fails to provide enough visas to
meet demand will inevitably make it harder to fill critical labor openings and make it impossible to
secure the border. Associated General Contractors of America, Leading Builders of America, the National Association of Home Builders
and the National Roofing Contractors Association also signed the letter.

Impact: Manufacturing

Housing recovery key to spurring manufacturing boom-creates the need for materials
and equipment
Kowalski 13, reporter for Bloomberg news (Alex, April 14, 2013, Housing Construction Probably Advanced: U.S. Economy Preview
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-14/housing-construction-probably-advanced-u-s-economy-preview.html)nasokan

Builders probably began work on U.S. homes in March at the second-fastest pace in almost five years, a sign one of the bright spots of the
expansion is making further progress, economists said before reports this week. Housing starts increased to a 930,000 annualized rate from a
917,000 pace in February, according to the median estimate of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg before an April 16 report from the
Commerce Department. Figures from the Federal Reserve the same day may show industrial production rose in March. The housing
recovery is fanning out to other areas of the economy, underpinning orders at manufacturers such as
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) Mortgage rates are hovering close to all-time lows as a lack of inflation allows the Fed to pursue
record monetary stimulus. The economy is in much better shape, and thats helped by housing, said Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITG
Investment Research Inc. in New York. A rebound in home construction may generate as many as 500,000 jobs in
2013 and 700,000 in 2014, including related services, according to Russell Price, a senior economist at
Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. Residential investment could bolster U.S. economic growth by 0.5
percentage point this year, Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, estimated in an April 10 note to clients.
A projected increase in building permits shows the pace of construction will continue. Applications to build a home increased last month to a
943,000 annualized rate, exceeding the pace of starts, from 939,000 in February, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey.
Housing Starts Builders began work on 780,000 homes in 2012, a 28 percent increase from the prior year and the third straight annual gain.
Even with the improvements, starts are short of the 2.1 million in 2005 at the peak of the boom, which was a three-decade high. The
momentum from the housing rebound during 2012 has remained strong in the early months of 2013, John Stumpf, president and chief
executive officer at Wells Fargo & Co., said on an April 12 earnings call. San Francisco-based Wells Fargo funded one in four U.S. mortgages in
2012. Our near-term outlook is for steady gains in home sales, building activity, and price appreciation. Housing affordability remains
excellent. Adding to evidence of a healthier real-estate market, a report tomorrow from the National Association of Home Builders/Wells
Fargo may show builders gained confidence in April. Spilling Over Demand for building materials, along with gains in
spending on new equipment by U.S. companies, is helping underpin manufacturing. The market in
the U.S. is more robust than the GDP figures will suggest, Pedro Baranda, president of the Otis Elevator unit of United
Technologies, said during a March 14 analyst meeting. Theres strong commercial business coming back. This housing
recovery right now appears to be driven by multi-property development aimed at the rental market,
which boosts demand for elevators, he said. Industrial production probably rose 0.2 percent last month, according to the median estimate of
economists before the Feds report. Manufacturing, which makes up 75 percent of total output, gained 0.1 percent after a 0.8 percent in
February.


Solvency


Manufacturing
1AC


Growth in manufacturing decliningslowest in decades
Gordon 13 (U.S. Productivity Growth: The Slowdown Has Returned After a Temporary
Revivalhttp://faculty-web.at.northwestern.edu/economics/Gordon/SAN-to-NBER%20Baily-
Sharpe%20as%20published_130327.pdf)LShen
There was never any slowdown in productivity growth in U.S. manufacturing during the postwar
period, and indeed there was an unprecedented explosion of manufacturing productivity growth
between 1996 and 2004. But the share of the manufacturing sector in the total economy has
declined from 30 to 10 per cent since the 1950s. The record for the other 90 per cent, consisting of all
the economy outside of manufacturing, is far less encouraging; in non-manufacturing labour
productivity growth fell from 2.95 per cent per year in 1948-72 to 1.29 per cent per year in 1972-96.
After a brief revival to 2.63 per cent in the brief eight-year period 1996-2004, the growth rate slumped
again to 1.47 in the past eight years. This examination of the data provides evidence that the revival of
productivity growth associated with the dot.com revolution is over, that multifactor productivity
growth in the total economy has returned to the rate achieved in the post-1972 slowdown years.

Low wage immigrants are key to manufacturingdeclining native workforce
Capps and Fortuny 7
(Randy, demographer and Senior Policy Analyst with MPI's National Center on Immigrant Integration
Policy, Karina, author of Children of Immigrants: 2008 State Trends Update,, Trends in the Low-Wage
Immigrant Labor Force, 20002005 pg online at http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/411426_Low-
Wafge_immigrant_Labor.pdf//sd)
As their absolute number and share of the low-wage labor force have risen, immigrants have become an
important component of several low-wage occupations. Immigrants composed a higher share of low-
wage workers than workers overall in almost all occupations with at least 50,000 low-wage workers. In 2004, they represented 15 percent
of the overall labor force and 21 percent of the low-wage labor force. Immigrants were over-represented among low-wage workers in six major occupational categories. In all of these
occupational categories except two, immigrants had median annual earnings substantially below those for natives. Immigrants earned more than native workers in food preparation and
serving jobs and in health care practitioner jobs. More than 2 million foreign-born workers were employed in each of the
construction and production/manufacturing occupational categories in 2004. The findings in this brief highlight
the growing importance of immigrant workers in the lower-skilled U.S. labor force and in several
major occupations. In 2005, immigrants comprised more than a fifth of workers earning below twice the federal minimum wage and nearly half of all workers without a high
school degree. Unauthorized immigrants were almost a tenth of low-wage workers and almost a quarter of lower-skilled workers. Between 2000 and 2005, there was substantial growth of
620,000 low-wage immigrant workers (most of which occurred among the unauthorized), but this growth did not offset even half of the decline (around 1.8 million) in the number of low-
wage, native-born workers. The number of low-wage, native-born workers declined for two main reasons. First, the absolute number of native-born women ages 18 to 64 without a high school
degree fell substantially, as native women became better educated. Second, larger shares of native-born men and womenespecially those without a college degreewere unemployed or
not in the labor force in 2005 than in 2000. Some of the decline in the number of natives in the lower-skilled and low-wage labor forces seems attributable to improvements in their
educational attainment. But among native-born men, especially younger men, it seems that a larger number left the labor force altogether. While immigration may have played some role in
these declines, the data presented here do not permit us to say so definitively. Moreover, the growth in the number of employed natives at the higher-skilled end of the labor force is also
partially attributable to immigration, through indirect effects on economic growth and job creation. Native-born women seem to have benefited more than men from 2000 to 2005, as they
experienced higher educational attainment growth. Whether or not immigrants affected the employment of native-born workers, their
large shares of low-wage workers in key occupationsalmost half in agriculture, around 40 percent in construction and building and
grounds maintenance, a third in manufacturing, and more than a fifth in food preparation and transportationtestify to their importance in
the U.S. economy. As Congress and the public debate reforms to the U.S. immigration system, a deeper understanding of the dynamics of entry and exit at the low and high
ends of the labor marker will be needed to make correct policy choices.


H2-B visas include manufacturing, but status quo cap is too lowguts US
manufacturing competitiveness
Dickenson 6
(Elizabeth C, Director of Immigration Services, Representative for the US Chamber of Commerce,
GUEST WORKER PROGRAMS: IMPACT ON THE AMERICAN WORKFORCE AND U.S. IMMIGRATION
POLICY to the HOUSE COMMITTEE ON EDUCATION AND THE WORKFORCE July 19
th
, pg online at
http://www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/testimony/twptestimonydickson71906.pdf//sd)
The other major temporary worker program is the H-2B program, which is designed specifically to allow foreign nationals to work for a sponsoring employer in a
jobthat is only temporary in nature; for example, to fill a seasonal job (but not in agriculture), to meet a one- time project or need, to add additional
staff during a time of exceptionally high peak load, or to fill a position that is intermittently used in the business. H-2B
visas are used in industries such as landscaping, seasonal hospitality (such as resort hotels, restaurants and attractions), and seasonal construction, as well as to meet specific needs in
manufacturing, retail and other industries. The cap on H-2B visas is 66,000 annually, and the cap has been hit the last two
years, affecting small businesses in particular. Congress passed an exemptionfor repeat users, but that will soon sunset, and without relief,
many small employers quite possibly will be adversely impacted. The H-2B programhelps supplement the native-born workforce, but it cannot be used to fill all types of jobs because of the seasonal nature of the
visa. A company has to first recruit and advertise for the opening in the U.S. The employer must then obtai n a temporary labor certification from the Department of Labor, receive approval from the Department of Homeland Security, and then request that the visa be issued through
consular process of the Department of State.26 Unfortunately, for Ingersoll Rand, market forces and the unavailability of U.S. workers has created a
problem of identifying and retaining lesser-skilled workers. Here are some examples: Ingersoll Rand cannot find the
welders it needs in the domestic economy, despite its best efforts to do so, and has no option to use a temporary worker
program under current law to fit this situation. We train welders at our own facilities. Even when we train U.S. workers, many of the students cannot grasp the technique and skill nuances.
Welders are neither seasonal to meet the requirements of the H-2B program, nor qualified to meet
the requirements of an H-1B visa. This can mean severe delays, which impedes the good will we have
with our customers, and can affect our competitiveness.27 Technicians for the Air Solutions Group's service and repair business are also in short supply. We have identified skilled
technicians at our IR Canada operations who have the product knowledge and technical experience to service IR compressors in the U.S., however as the products they would be servicing are manufactured in the U.S., not Canada, they would require work permits and there is no
appropriate visa category to allow such skilled technicians to travel intermittently to the U.S. to perform service on U.S.-manufactured machinery. Experienced tool and die workers, with
knowledge in stamping technology and machining are scarce. Our manufacturing plants in the Detroit area continue to
experience difficulty finding electricians for their manufacturing operations, with the automotive industry being primary competitors for such skilled
workers. Experienced machinests are also critical. We arevery concernedabout the looming shortage or these types of workers as the
older generation retires, and we see no evidence of younger skilled and semi-skilled workers coming into the ranks to backfill
these key positions. Another type of temporary visa available for employers today is the H-2A agricultural visa. This visa will be covered by another panelist, but the programhas proven to be difficult to use and not responsive to the realities of the agricultural workplace, and as even the
Department of Labor has said, it is cumbersome and litigation-prone.
Strong manufacturing is inextricably tied to US readinessForeign dependence and
offshoring create terminal vulnerabilities
Adams et al. 13
(john, brigadier general u.s. army (retired) President, Guardian Six Consulting LLC, Paulette Kurzer, Ph.D.
(Senior Vice President of Guardian Six Consulting LLC), Amber Allen Colonel Peter Aubrey, U.S. Army
(Retired), Ryan G. Baird, Ph.D., Keith A. Grant, Ph.D., Janne E. Nolan, Ph.D., remaking american security:
supply chain vulnerabilities & national security risks across the u.s. defense industrial base pg online at
http://americanmanufacturing.org/files/RemakingAmericanSecurityMay2013.pdf//sd)
The United States national security is threatened by our militarys growing and dangerous reliance on foreign nations for
the raw materials, parts, and finished products needed to defend the American people. The health of
our manufacturing sector is inextricably intertwined with our national security , and it is vital that we
strengthen the sector. This reportprepared by Guardian Six Consulting LLC for the Alliance for American Manufacturingrecommends 10 actions to make America less dependent on foreign nations for the vital products that enable Americas
soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines to be the most powerful and effective fighting force in the world. The recommendations (detailed below) call for a joint strategy by government, industry, academic research institutions, and the military to increase U.S. domestic production of
manufactured items and recovery of natural resources that the armed forces require. In addition, the recommendations emphasize the importance of investment today in the
technological innovation, education, and training needed to keep America secure tomorrow. This report also calls for properly enforcing existing and internationally accepted laws that give U.S. defense manufacturers certain
preferences over foreign competitors. This enforcement will ensure a level playing field, high-quality materials and products, and a healthy U.S. defense industrial base. The report further recommends federal
investment in Americas high-technology manufacturing infrastructure, especially in advanced research and manufacturing capabilities. Another recommendation calls for increasing U.S.
production of certain key raw materials needed for the nations defense to supplement our imports. The recommendation also proposes stockpiling these raw materials to ensure an adequate supply. With the closing of factories
across the United States and the mass exodus of U.S. manufacturing jobs to China and other nations over the
past 30 years, the United States critically important defense industrial base has deteriorated dramatically. As a result,
the United States now relies heavily on imports to keep our armed forces equipped and ready. Compounding this rising reliance on foreign suppliers, the United States also depends increasingly on foreign financing arrangements. In addition, the United States is not
mining enough of the critical metals and other raw materials needed to produce important weapons
systems and military supplies. These products include the night-vision devices (made with a rare earth element) that enabled Navy SEALs to hunt down Osama bin Laden. Consequently, the healt h of the United States defense
industrial baseand our national securityis in jeopardy. We are vulnerable to major disruptions in foreign supplies that could make it
impossible for U.S. warriors, warships, tanks, aircraft, and missiles to operate effectively. Such supply disruptions could be
caused by many factors, including: Poor manufacturing practices in offshore factories that produce problem-plagued
products. Shoddy manufacturing could be inadvertent, could be part of a deliberate attempt to cut
costs and boost profits, or could be intentionally designed to damage U.S. capabilities. Motivated by expected gains in cost,
innovation, and efficiency, the Department of Defense (DoD) began a decided shift fromparts made to military specifications (Mil-Spec) to commercial-off-theshelf (COTS) parts and equipment two decades ago. However, COTS parts often lack the quality control and traceability necessary
to ensure that parts used in the defense supply chain meet the rigorous standards we expect of equipment vital to our national security. Faulty and counterfeit COTS parts arealready taking a toll on readiness in
several defense sectors. Natural disasters, domestic unrest, or changes in government that couldcut or halt
productionand exports at foreign factories and mines . Foreign producers that sharply raise prices or reduce or stop
sales to the United States. These changes could be caused by political or military disputes with the
United States, by the desire of foreign nations to sell to other countries, by the need to attract foreign investment and production, or by foreign nations wanting to keep more of the raw materials, parts, and finished goods they produce for their own use.


Deterrence stops all warcredible conventional deterrence stops conflicts from
escalating into global nuclear war
Cimbala 13
(Stephen J., INSS Military and Strategic Affairs Program, professor of political science at Pennsylvania
State University, On Nuclear War: Deterrence, Escalation, and Control pg online at http://i-
hls.com/2013/04/on-nuclear-war-deterrence-escalation-and-control///sd)
During the Cold War, and especially in the 1980s, there were some serious efforts in the academic and policy communities to study how a nuclear war could end. The large nuclear arsenals of the Americans and Soviets, the drift of US and Soviet military thinking, and the policy related
anxieties of other skeptics, all precluded closure on this question before the Cold War ended. In a policy debate on the role of nuclear weapons polarized
between the deterrence only and actual use schools of thought , the question of how to conduct a nuclear war controlled by policy and coherent strategy
received short shrift. The subject of nuclear war termination should be reopened now because the threat of nuclear
danger has changed from one of quantity to one of quality who has nuclear weapons, and for what
purpose are they intended? The political and technological environments relevant to starting and stopping a nuclear war are markedly different fromthe Cold War context. It would be a major tragedy if in the aftermath of the rst nuclear
weapons red in war since Nagasaki, neither the United States nor other great powers had thought through how to abort a nuclear conict in its early stages. For unlike the hypothetical Armageddon between the Americans and Soviets that never occurred in the last century,
smaller than global but nevertheless highly destructive nuclear wars could take place in this century.
Some of these conicts have the potential to spread into a wider war for example, between India and Pakistan
that could engulf other nuclear powers in the Asia-Pacic region. Pakistan could nd itself supported
by China, and India could nd itself supported by Russia and/or the United States, initially by means
of extended deterrence but later by actual conventional or nuclear strikes. In addition, although the likelihood of any deliberate nuclear attack by the
US or NATO against Russia, or vice versa, is obviously small to nonexistent, the possibility of inadvertent nuclear war or escalation into nuclear rst use in Europe is not to be excluded including in Russias declaratory military doctrine and in NATO contingency planning. This study will
attempt neither to construct particular scenarios of war termination nor to examine important topics such as bargai ning strategies or monitoring and verication of nuclear cease res. The focus here is broader, namely, the political -military contexts for the management of nuclear crises
and post-CRISIS force operations, including escalation control and war termination. Specically, correcting the potential inability of states to terminate a
nuclear war requires that military planners and policy-makers rst accept the concept of nuclear war
termination as feasible and desirable. There are considerable obstacles standing in the way of that acceptance, not the least being the intellectual resistance by many, based on the assumption that deterrence is
undermined by a willingness to plan seriously for its possible failure.
Uniqueness
US manufacturing is in a steep declineloss of productivity, activity and demand
Kamalick 12 (Joe Kamalick is ICIS Chief Correspondent to the Americas; US engine sputters. ICIS Chemical Business,
19375786, 9/17/2012, Vol. 282, Issue 7 EBSCO) LShen
The US manufacturing sector and its exports have been the principal driver of the nation's post-recession recovery, such as it is, but
that key economic engine has begun to cough and sputter, nosing down toward trouble. Activity in the broad US
manufacturing sector declined in August for the third consecutive month and has fallen to its lowest
level since the end of the recession in June 2009. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that
it's closely watched purchasing managers index (PMI) fell just slightly by 0.2 percentage points in August from
July to 49.6%, but that decline set the lowest reading for the index since July 2009, just at the end of the 2008-2009
recession. US manufacturing industries began a period of contraction in June this year when the PMI fell
below 50% for the first time in 33 months to 49.7%. The index recovered marginally to 49.8% in July, but still signalled
contraction in production. The PMI - a long-running gauge of US manufacturing activity - is a composite of
supplier responses to the ISM's monthly survey of 10 different business performance measures in 18 major industrial sectors. A PMI reading
above 50% indicates the US manufacturing sector is expanding, while an index measure below 50% means
production is contracting. Since manufacturing began to recover with the end of the recession in June 2009, the PMI had been at or above
50% for 33 of 34 months before falling below 50% in June. Bradley Holcomb, the institute's survey manager, said that the PMI was pulled lower
in August in part by a 0.9-point decline in the component index for new orders for manufactured goods, falling to a reading of 47.1%, also a
third month of downturn. In addition, the component index for production fell by a sharp 4.1 percentage points
to 47.2% last month, the first decline in this measure since May 2009 when the US was still in
recession. Holcomb said that comments from survey respondents "generally reflect a slowdown in orders and demand, with continuing
concern over the uncertain state of global economies". Among the 18 manufacturing industries tracked by ISM, only eight reported some
growth in August, with chemicals among them. Two industries, plastics being one, were flat during the month while eight
others reported declining activity - including many that are major downstream consumers of chemicals and resins. An
unidentified chemical sector official was quoted as saying that: "Lackluster demand continues in all regions of the world and is
supporting much lower raw materials prices in the second half of 2012". OUTLOOK DOUR It is not going to
get better anytime soon. Further deceleration in manufacturing and the overall US economy is on the
horizon, a major industrial group said as it again lowered its forecast for the nation's GDP growth this year and next. In its second
downgrade for the US economic outlook since the beginning of the year, the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI)
said it expects US GDP expansion for full year 2012 will be only 2% and that the nation's economic
growth will slow still further in 2013 to only 1.7%. In February, MAPI's economists had forecast 2012 GDP expansion of
2.2% and 2013 growth of 2.4%. But that outlook was lowered in the alliance's June appraisal, dropping to 2.1% GDP growth this year and a
2.1% pace for full year 2013. In just six months, MAPI economists have lowered their estimate for US 2013 GDP growth from 2.4% to 1.7%. In
normal times, the US economy would be expected to grow at an annual pace of 3% to 3.5% GDP expansion rates of 2% or below are not
sufficient to generate enough new jobs to keep up with population growth. MAPI chief economist Daniel Meckstroth said that the nation's
annual growth rate "will decelerate as the pace of business equipment spending slows". US businesses have money and need new gear,
Meckstroth said, but fear of the future is restraining capital spending and equipment purchases. "

Yes Manufacturing Demand
Immigrants fill low wage manufacturing jobhigh demand
Capps and Fortuny 7
(Randy, demographer and Senior Policy Analyst with MPI's National Center on Immigrant Integration
Policy, Karina, author of Children of Immigrants: 2008 State Trends Update,, Trends in the Low-Wage
Immigrant Labor Force, 20002005 pg online at http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/411426_Low-
Wage_immigrant_Labor.pdf//sd)
In this brief, we focus on immigrants role in the low-wage and lower-skilled labor force and examine trends over the first half of this decade.
Between 2000 and 2005, the U.S. immigrant population increased from 31.1 to 35.7 million,1 and foreign-born shares of the U.S. population and
labor force increased slightly. At the same time, the number of unauthorized immigrantsthe focus of the debate surrounding immigration reformrose past 11
million (Passel 2006). The number and share of immigrants, especially the unauthorized, increased most rapidly
in low-wage, lower-skilled jobs in key areas of the economy, such as agriculture, construction,
manufacturing, and services. Concurrently, the numbers of native-born low-wage and lower-skilled workers fell
substantially, giving at least the appearance that immigrants were filling the demand for lower-skilled labor and/or displacing
some of the least-educated native workers. During this period, employment and labor force participation rates fell for the least-
educated native-born workers, both men and women. But improvements in the educational attainment of natives, especially women, contributed to the declining
numbers of native workers in the low-wage workforce. Thus, the demographic evidence regarding the impact of immigrants on the low-wage, native-born labor force remains mixed and
ambiguous.



Immigrants are key to replace a decreasing domestic labor pool
Singer 12
(Audrey, senior fellow at the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, Immigrant Workers in the U.S.
Labor Force pg online at http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/03/15-immigrant-workers-
singer//sd)
Debates about illegal immigration, border security, skill levels of workers, unemployment, job growth and competition,
and entrepreneurship all rely, to some extent, on perceptions of immigrants role in the U.S. labor market. These views
are often shaped as much by politics and emotion as by facts. To better frame these debates, this short analysis provides data on
immigrants in the labor force at the current time of slowed immigration, high unemployment, and low job
growth and highlights eight industries where immigrants are especially vital. How large a share of the labor force are they and how does that vary by particular industry? How do immigrants
compare to native-born workers in their educational attainment and occupational profiles? The answers matter because our economy is dependent on
immigrant labor now and for the future. The U.S. population is aging rapidly as the baby boom cohort
enters old age and retirement. As a result, the labor force will increasingly depend upon immigrants and their children to
replace current workers and fill new jobs. This analysis puts a spotlight on immigrant workers to examine their
basic trends in the labor force and how these workers fit into specific industries and occupations of
interest.

Manufacturing Solvency
Uncapped H2-B guest worker program boosts the US manufacturing base
Stanely-Becker 13
(Tom, Government Research Assistant at University of Chicago, Yale Daily News, Peer-reviewed by Peter
Swenson, Yales C.M. Saden Professor of Political Science. Strange Bedfellows: Business, Labor, Guest
Workers, and Immigration Reform in the United States, 1986-2013 April 19
th
, pg online at
http://www.library.yale.edu/prizes/applebaum/papers/stanley-becker.pdf//sd)
During the hearings that proceeded floor consideration of the CIRA, however, it was no longer agricultural business that led the campaign for an
expanded guest worker program. Nor was the central concern rotting crops but rather the release of the market in guest workers from government authority. In 2006, the
primary employer spokesperson at a House subcommittee hearing concerning Guest Worker Programs:
Impact on the American Workforce and U.S. Immigration Policy, was not a farmer but Elizabeth Dickson, the Corporate Immigration
Service Manager for Ingersoll-Rand Co., a diversified manufacturing and technology company. Dickson was also
the chairperson of the Chamber of Commerce Subcommittee on Immigration, and her company belonged to a new employer advocacy group called the Essential Worker Immigration Coalition. In her testimony, the
examples of guest workers needed by her company were not fruit pickers, but rather welders, service
technicians, and tool and die makers. She also stressed labor needs in construction, health care, and hospitality. She
criticized the H-2B programs restriction to short-term seasonal types of work, and called on Congress to revise
the administrative procedures and complex application process, and structure expanded temporary worker programs that
employers could use, in a reasonably efficient manner without numerous bureaucratic hoops and hurdles to fill jobs with immigrant workers
when U.S. workers are not available. Rather, than impose an artificial, governmental limit on the
number of guest workers in an expanded program, like the total of 200,000 in the measure then
pending in Congress, Dickson explained that the Chamber favored a market-based cap that could
increase and decrease based on the need for these visas.

Immigration low skilled labor is key to effective high-skilled laborfulfills tech
products
Clemens 13, Michael Clemens Ph.D. (2002), Harvard University, Economics; M.A. (1997), The Johns Hopkins University, Geography and
Environmental Engineering; B.S. (1994), California Institute of Technology, Engineering and Applied Science, also is a senior fellow and research
manager at the Washington-based Center for Global Development, where he leads the Migration and Development initiative, We need more
unskilled workers, please: Foreign Policy opinion,
http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2013/07/we_need_more_unskilled_workers.html//joey

In the congressional battle over immigration reform, some of the most heated fighting has centered on employment visas for less-skilled
essential workers -- elder-care workers, farmworkers, builders, cleaners, servers, warehousers. In these debates, someone is usually thinking or
saying, "If we create visas for less-skilled work, that amounts to saying that U.S. workers are too 'lazy' to do these jobs or 'can't cut it.'" That's
wrong, and it's an undeserved insult to U.S. workers. In fact, the economy's need for essential workers
from abroad is a sign of American workers' strength. And if the United States doesn't address this
crucial shortage, the reform efforts currently on the table will likely have limited impact on the
number of undocumented workers coming into the country. The bedrock fact is that there aren't enough U.S. workers
to do these essential jobs. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the United States will need 3
million additional workers over the next decade to fill the least-skilled jobs -- jobs that do not require
a high school degree -- in order to achieve projected economic growth. These include jobs in home
health, food preparation, freight, child care, cleaning, landscaping and construction. Over the same
period, the total number of U.S. workers entering the labor force at all skill levels, between the ages
of 25 and 54, will be 1.7 million. (At younger ages, 24 years and below, the labor force will actually shrink.) Think on that a
moment. Even if every single young American dropped out of college and high school now, so that at the end of the coming decade they would
be performing essential less-skilled jobs, they could only fill about half of these new openings. And of course all those kids won't and shouldn't
stop getting educated. Around 10 percent of those new labor-force entrants will have less than a high school education; around 30 percent will
have high school only. Bottom line: At least three out of four of these new, essential jobs will be filled by
workers coming to the United States from abroad, or they won't be filled at all. This has nothing to do
with laziness. It's about numbers. It's not only that there aren't enough less-skilled Americans to do
these jobs. There aren't enough Americans period. This economic reality is at the center of what
drives immigration. But it has been at the fringe of the political theater shaping U.S. immigration
reform, perhaps because would-be reformers would rather the face of immigration be a software
engineer from Mumbai with a master's degree rather than an uneducated factory worker from
Mexico. The Senate's recently passed bill would create relatively small numbers of work visas for low-
skilled jobs. (The House has no bill yet.) The Senate bill would create only a few hundred thousand temporary
work visas at a time -- the "W" visa -- with a floating cap that could rise to a hypothetical maximum of
600,000 people in the country at any one moment. And it creates a negligible number of low-skill
permanent work visas. Who will staff the millions of new low-skilled jobs the U.S. economy will create in the next decade, jobs
American workers will not fill? There are the current undocumented workers in the country who may be regularized under immigration reform
-- but they're already in the United States, so the BLS' estimates of new jobs already account for the jobs they fill. Perhaps some of these jobs
will be filled by people who come on family-reunification visas, but no one knows how many of them there will be, and it will almost certainly
be too few. Family-based immigrants have not been filling many of the low-skilled jobs currently filled by unauthorized workers, and the Senate
bill will reduce the number of family-based visas. All this implies that even if the United States regularizes millions of immigrants now, it is likely
to have another unauthorized-immigration crisis several years ahead. The last mass regularization, under President Ronald Reagan in 1986,
barely altered the stock of unauthorized immigrants in the medium term. Before the regularization there were around 3 million unauthorized
immigrants; just five years later there were once again around 3 million. The main reason was that the reform was a political showpiece built
around the politics of "amnesty" and "security," rather than the needs of the U.S. economy. It was never designed to fill America's economic
needs for low-skilled labor, but instead was a rickety political compromise among farmers, labor and Hispanic groups, and other interests. In
the aftermath, employers had an awful choice: either turn to the black market for labor or face the
consequences of a low-skilled labor shortage -- stunted businesses, closed farms, infants and
grandparents without proper care. The latest efforts at reform might be the best that can be hoped for from Capitol Hill. But they
will similarly herald a new wave of unauthorized immigration unless their low-skill work visa caps are made much more flexible, starting from
the essential labor needs of U.S. employers. And that's unlikely. The country's low-skilled labor dilemma is a sign of U.S.
workers' high skill and productivity. It's one of many things to celebrate about the United States. High school completion rates in
America have been broadly rising for decades, in all ethnic groups. And skilled workers create more skilled jobs; an MBA launching a new
product needs skilled marketers and programmers. Skilled workers work with skilled workers, and that kind of teamwork is obvious. But
another kind of teamwork is at the heart of the skilled economy: More skilled workers also create
more less-skilled jobs. That kind of teamwork is less obvious, so it's worth thinking through. How can that MBA launch a new product?
Only by depending critically on a small army of essential low-skilled workers. She needs someone to clear the table after a client lunch, empty
the garbage at her office, and run the lot where she parks. She needs someone to pick the vegetables she eats and resurface the road she
drives home on. She might need someone to care for her child, or grandfather, so she can work late. All of that is just the beginning. This other
form of teamwork is less obvious because it's often invisible. Apart from the care workers, this MBA might never meet or only briefly glimpse
the rest of these less-skilled workers. Yet every step of her daily life critically depends on them as much as it depends on her skilled co-workers.
They make her more productive, and she them. This is simultaneously the reason that there are so many less-skilled
jobs in America's future and the reason that fewer Americans do those jobs. People who acquire
higher skills create less-skilled jobs that they themselves aren't suited for. Less-skilled immigrants fill
that gap. Machines may be able to take over a few of these jobs; that's why you're seeing more self-checkout registers in retail stores. But
no machine we'll have anytime soon can help the elderly bathe safely, clear tables at restaurants, or profitably pick cucumbers. People who do
less-skilled essential jobs make skilled work in America possible, and together they make American competitiveness possible. You might never
see the people who clean Google's offices, but the company's massive contribution to U.S. competitiveness would not exist without them.
There's nothing new here. This is how America has been filling essential jobs since 1776 -- by giving opportunities to hardworking, less-skilled
people from around the world. My great-great-great-grandfather came to the United States from Germany as a livestock tender because the
bankers and architects of the 1840s needed him to do that work. The Senate's immigration reform bill continues that tradition with
employment visas specific to less-skilled work: the "blue card" for farmworkers and the W visa for nonagricultural workers. It is essential to
include those provisions and make them as flexible as possible to meet needs for decades to come. They are a sign of U.S. workers' skill,
excellence, and productive power. Without provisions like these, any reform of immigration law will leave only
two roads ahead: either throwing away economic growth and competitiveness that the United States
could have had, or a continued, escalating crisis of unauthorized immigration.



Manu internal: Deterrence

Domestic manufacturing is central to US deterrenceincreasing foreign dependence
guts readiness and security
Haimowitz 5/9/13
(Sara, Coordinator of Alliance for American Manufacturing, citing Brigadier General John Adams (U.S.
Army, Retired), New Report Calls for Stronger U.S. Manufacturing Sector to Protect National Security.
Pg online at http://www.tradereform.org/2013/05/new-report-calls-for-stronger-u-s-manufacturing-
sector-to-protect-national-security///sd)
New Report Calls for Stronger U.S. Manufacturing Sector to Protect National Security. Urgent action is needed to reduce the U.S. militarys dangerous
dependence on foreign suppliers for the raw materials, parts, and finished products needed to
defend America , according to a new study prepared by Brigadier General John Adams (U.S. Army, Retired). Remaking American Security: Supply Chain Vulnerabili ties & National Security Risks Across the U.S. Defense Industrial Base was authored by
Guardian Six Consulting President Brigadier General John Adams and released today at a Capitol Hill event led by Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), and Rep. TimRyan (D-Ohio). The report finds that U.S. national security
and the health of the nations defense industrial base are in jeopardy because of an over-reliance on
foreign suppliers for critical defense materials. Foreign sourcing puts Americas military readiness in the hands of
potentially unreliable supplier nations and undermines the ability to develop capabilities needed to
win on future battlefields . The report calls for action to increase domestic production of the natural resources and
manufactured goods necessary to equip our military. Americas vulnerability today is frightening, said General
Adams. This report is a wake-up call for America to pay attention to the growing threat posed by the steady
deterioration of our defense industrial base. Excessive and unwise outsourcing of American manufacturing to other
nations weakens Americas military capability . As a soldier, Ive witnessed firsthand the importance of our nations ability to rapidly produce and field a sophisticated array of capabilities.
There is a real risk that supply chain vulnerabilities will hamper our response to future threats . Examples
analyzed in detail in the report include: The United States is completely dependent on a single Chinese company for the chemical needed to produce the solid rocket fuel used to propel HELLFIRE missiles. As current U.S. supplies diminish, our military will be reliant on the Chinese
supplier to provide this critical chemicalbutanetriolin the quantities needed to maintain this missile system. HELLFIRE missiles are a widely used, reliable, and effective weapon launched from attack helicopters and unmanned drones. They are a critical component in Americas
arsenal. The commercialization of rechargeable batteries has moved offshore along with new innovation capacity. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are built on complex chemistries that offer superior weight savings per unit of energy density. They last a long time during disuse and are
low-maintenance. Although the original invention of the Li-ion battery took place in U.S. laboratories housed in U.S. universities funded by the federal government, the United States is now at a competitive disadvantage, relying on foreign suppliers for both current products and next
generation batteries. The United States imports 91 percent of the rare earth element lanthanum, which is needed to make night-vision devices, fromChina. This near-total dependence creates a risk that China could withhold access to lanthanumto force up the price, inhibit a U.S.
technological advantage, pressure the United States to resolve disputes on terms favorable to China, or worse, completely withhold supplies. Night-vision devices give U.S. warfighters a critical advantage in low-light operations, such as the night raid that resulted in the death of Osama
bin Laden. Production of high-tech magnets has migrated offshore, even though American research initially
developed this important technology. Today, there is no domestic Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnet producer, and 75
percent of NdFeB magnets are fabricated in China. The disappearance of a U.S. magnet industry has eroded U.S. leadership in patents and our ability to design new applications. President of the Alliance for American Manufacturing
(AAM) Scott Paul, whose organization commissioned the report, notes that the report is call to action for a renewed focus on American
manufacturing capacity . Allowing our defense industrial base to keep shrinking and our dependence
on foreign manufactures to keep growing will make America weaker, less secure, and less safe, Paul said. As the
U.S. pivots its defense posture to focus on Asia, procurement policies that allow, or in some cases encourage, sourcing of critical defense materials fromChina and other potentially unreliable suppliers dont make sense. Self-reliance has
always been an American virtue and the key to our nations success and prosperity. Manufacturing is
important for job creation and a strong economy, and its also essential for our national security.
Impact: deterrence



Collapse risks deterrence failure escalates to great-power war
Spencer 2K (Jack Spencer, Research Fellow at Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies,
The Facts About Military Readiness, Heritage Foundation, 9-15-2000,
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2000/09/BG1394-The-Facts-About-Military-
Readiness)//RDa
America's national security requirements dictate that the armed forces must be prepared to defeat groups of adversaries in a given
war. America, as the sole remaining superpower, has many enemies. Because attacking America or its interests alone would surely end in defeat for a single nation, these enemies are likely to form alliances. Therefore, basing
readiness on American military superiority over any single nation has little saliency. The evidence indicates that the U.S. armed forces are not ready to support America's national security requirements. Moreover, regarding the
broader capability to defeat groups of enemies, military readiness has been declining. The National Security Strategy, the U.S. official statement of national security objectives,3
concludes that the United States "must have the capability to deter and, if deterrence fails, defeat large-scale, cross-
border aggression in two distant theaters in overlapping time frames."4According to some of the military's highest-ranking officials, however, the United States cannot achieve this goal. Commandant of the
Marine Corps General James Jones, former Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jay Johnson, and Air Force Chief of Staff General Michael Ryan have all expressed serious concerns about their respective services' ability to carry out a
two major theater war strategy.5 Recently retired Generals Anthony Zinni of the U.S. Marine Corps and George Joulwan of the U.S. Army have even questioned America's ability to conduct one major theater war the size of the
1991 Gulf War.6 Military readiness is vital because declines in America's military readiness signal to the rest of
the world that the United States is not prepared to defend its interests. Therefore, potentially hostile
nations will be more likely to lash out against American allies and interests, inevitably leading to U.S.
involvement in combat. A high state of military readiness is more likely to deter potentially hostile
nations from acting aggressively in regions of vital national interest, thereby preserving peace.

Impact: Econ

Manufacturing is the backbone of the economy it undergirds growth, innovation,
knowledge generation and generates a spillover effect
Creticos and Sohnen 13 Peter A. Creticos, President and Executive Director of the Institute for Work and the Economy, a Chicago-based think tank specializing in
national and regional workforce and economic development policies. He is also Principal of the policy consultancy Peter A. Creticos, Ltd. He recently finished a four-year appointment as
Visiting Fellow at the Institute for Latino Studies at the University of Notre Dame. Dr. Creticos is an adjunct faculty member of the University of Illinois at Chicago College of Urban Planning and
Public Administration, at the Illinois Institute of Technology Stuart School of Business, and in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Roosevelt University. Prior to
establishing the Institute in 2000, Dr. Creticos served in senior positions in state and local government and national and state nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Dr. Creticos earned his
PhD at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at Northwestern University, where he conducted research on job matching. He also earned an MM at Northwesterns
Kellogg Graduate School of Management, an MA in political science from the University of Missouri at St. Louis, and a BA in philosophy from Washington University in St. Louis, and Eleanor
Sohnen, Policy Analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, where she works for the Regional Migration Study Group. Her research interests include the interaction of source-country education
and workforce systems and migration, and the social and economic integration of intraregional labor migrants in Latin America. Ms. Sohnen previously served as a consultant to the Inter-
American Development Bank (IDB), designing and implementing workforce development and capacity-building projects in public employment services and migration management. While at
IDB, she coauthored Crossing Borders for Work: New Trends and Policies in Labor Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (IDB, 2012); On the Other Side of the Fence: Changing Dynamics
of Migration in the Americas (MPI, 2010); and The Financial Crisis and Latin American and Caribbean Labor Markets: Risks and Policy Responses (IDB, 2009). She holds a masters degree from
Johns Hopkins Universitys Nitze School of Advanced International Studies in international relations and international economics with a focus on Latin America and development economics,
and a bachelors degree in Latin American Studies from Oberlin College (Peter A. Creticos, Eleanor Sohnen, Wilson Center Migration Policy Institute, MANUFACTURING IN THE UNITED
STATES, MEXICO, AND CENTRAL AMERICA: Implications for Competitiveness and Migration, January 2013, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/RMSG-Manufacturing.pdf, Accessed 07-15-
2013 | AK)
The importance of manufacturing to the US economy is equaled by its importance in the countrys
historical narrative. The United States has been the leading producer of manufactured goods for more than 100 years, currently producing nearly 18 percent of global manufactured products.3 The
sector has long sustained the countrys economic growth , spurring constant innovation and
knowledge generation . However, manufacturing has been declining as a share of gross domestic
product (GDP) and employment. The sector now accounts for 12 percent of US GDP,4 with the four largest subsectors computers and electronics; chemicals; food, beverages, and tobacco; and
petroleum and coal making up 51 percent of total manufacturing GDP.5 At its highest point, in 1944, the total manufacturing employment share in the United States reached nearly 40 percent. However, increasingly challenged
by its Asian competitors in the 1970s and 80s, the United States lost more than 40 percent of its manufacturing jobs between June 1979 and December 2009, with the worst losses coming in the first decade of the 21st century.
Today, manufacturing employs 11 percent of the US private-sector workforce. Nationwide, immigrants from Mexico and Central Americas Northern Triangle make up a little more than 6 percent of the total civilian workforce
but are overrepresented in manufacturing, where they are nearly 8 percent of all workers in the sector. In fact, manufacturing is the second-biggest employment source for all immigrants from these four countries, trailing only
construction.6 Despite the long-run manufacturing employment losses, the industry remains vitally important to the
US economy . Manufacturing is a source of high-wage jobs for workers at all skill and education
levels, but is an especially important source of jobs for those who would otherwise earn the lowest
wages.7 In addition to production jobs, manufacturing ordinarily has a high spillover effect , indirectly creating
millions of service jobs along the skills spectrum. (Production and service occupations include
designers, engineers, machinists, assemblers, inspectors, sales representatives, and packagers, to name just a
few roles.) The renaissance of manufacturing is a topic of note in the media, and subject to debate among economists. Some
manufacturers have inshored, or relocated factories from Asia to the United States, citing rising labor costs in China and distance from R&D functions as drivers of their decision. Indeed,
manufacturings share of employment is up slightly from a low of 8.79 percent in November 2010.8 However, the gains in manufacturing jobs from January 2010 to October 2012
an increase of 500,000 jobs, or 4.4 percent from the trough9 though a positive sign for the industry, have not matched the job losses
suffered during the previous decade. On the bright side, the gains have been mainly concentrated in durable goods manufacturing, which tends to be a more productive and thus higher-
wage part of the industry. In fact, the top four export subsectors by value transportation and aerospace equipment, computers and electronic products, chemicals, and nonelectrical machinery accounted for nearly two-thirds
of US manufactured exports in 2010,10 and these key subsectors may have the potential to maintain or expand employment in the United States.

Impact: Advanced Manu
A strong manufacturing base spills over to advanced R&D and innovation
Lind and Freedman 12 Michael Lind, policy director of New Americas Economic Growth Program
and a co-founder of the New America Foundation, and Joshua Freedman, program associate in New
Americas Economic Growth Program (Michael Lind, Joshua Freedman, New America Foundation, April
2012, Value Added: Americas Manufacturing Future,
http://growth.newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/Lind,%20Michael%20and%20Free
dman,%20Joshua%20-%20NAF%20-
%20Value%20Added%20America%27s%20Manufacturing%20Future.pdf, Accessed 07-19-2013)
Perhaps the greatest contribution of manufacturing to the U.S. economy as a whole involves the
disproportionate role of the manufacturing sector in R&D. The expansion in the global market for high-
value-added services has allowed the U.S. to play to its strengths by expanding its trade surplus in
services, many of them linked to manufacturing, including R&D, engineering, software production and finance. Of these services, by far the most important is R&D. The United States has long led the
world in R&D. In 1981, U.S. gross domestic expenditure on R&D was more than three times as large as that of any other country in the world. And the U.S. still leads: in 2009, the most recent year for which there is available data, the United States spent more than 400 billion dollars.
European countries spent just under 300 billion dollars combined, while China spent about 150 billion dollars.14 In the United States, private sector manufacturing is the largest source of R&D. The private sector itself accounts for 71 percent of total R&D in the United States, and although
U.S. manufacturing accounts for only 11.7 percent of GDP in 2012, the manufacturing sector accounts for 70 percent of all R&D spending by the
private sector in the U.S.15 And R&D and innovation are inextricably connected : a National Science Foundation survey found that 22 percent of
manufacturers had introduced product innovations and the same percentage introduced process innovations in the period 2006-2008, while only 8 percent of non-manufacturers reported innovations of either kind.16 Even as the manufacturing industry in the United States underwent
major changes and suffered severe job losses during the last decade, R&D spending continued to follow a general upward growth path. A disproportionate share of workers involved in R&D
are employed directly or indirectly by manufacturing companies; for example, the US manufacturing sector
employs more than a third of U.S. engineers.17 This means that manufacturing provides much of the demand for
the U.S. innovation ecosystem, supporting large numbers of scientists and engineers who might not
find employment if R&D were offshored along with production. Why America Needs the Industrial Commons Manufacturing creates
an industrial commons , which spurs growth in multiple sectors of the economy through linked
industries. An industrial commons is a base of shared physical facilities and intangible knowledge shared by a number of firms. The termcommons comes from communally-shared pastures or fields in premodern Britain. The industrial commons in particular in the
manufacturing sector includes not only large companies but also small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs), which employ 41 percent of the American manufacturing workforce and account for 86 percent of all manufacturing establishments in the U.S. Suppliers of materials, component
parts, tools, and more are all interconnected; most of the time, Harvard Business School professors Gary Pisano and Willy Shi h point out, these linkages are geographic because of the ease of interaction and knowledge transfer between firms.18 Examples of industrial commons
surrounding manufacturing are evident in the United States, including the I-85 corridor from Alabama to Virginia and upstate New York.19 Modern economic scholarship emphasizes the importance of geographic agglomeration effects and co-location synergies.20
Manufacturers and researchers alike have long noted the symbiotic relationship that occurs when
manufacturing and R&D are located near each other: the manufacturer benefits from the innovation,
and the researchers are better positioned to understand where innovation can be found and to test new ideas. While some
forms of knowledge can be easily recorded and transferred, much know-how in industry is tacit knowledge. This valuable tacit knowledge base can be damaged or destroyed by the erosion of geographic linkages, which in turn shrinks the pool of scientists and engineers in the national
innovation ecosystem. If an advanced manufacturing core is not retained, then the economy stands to lose not only
the manufacturing industry itself but also the geographic synergies of the industrial commons, including R&D.
Some have warned that this is already the case: a growing share of R&D by U.S. multinational corporations is taking place outside of the United States.21 In particular, a number of large U.S. manufacturers have opened up or expanded R&D facilities in China over the last few years.22

Old Advantage work

AT plan increases illegals
Doesnt increase illegal immigrationplan removes incentives by filling the labor void
with legal workerssolves DHS security trade-off
Dickenson 6
(Elizabeth C, Director of Immigration Services, Representative for the US Chamber of Commerce,
GUEST WORKER PROGRAMS: IMPACT ON THE AMERICAN WORKFORCE AND U.S. IMMIGRATION
POLICY to the HOUSE COMMITTEE ON EDUCATION AND THE WORKFORCE July 19
th
, pg online at
http://www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/testimony/twptestimonydickson71906.pdf//sd)
While much of the above discussion has focused on the need for expanded temporary worker programs to meet the needs of an expanding economy, these programs will also enhance
our national security and control over our borders. This precise point was explained in a letter by several past governmental officials charged with enforcing our
immigration and border security laws, which has been attached to this testimony for your review.38 This linkage is also clear by a matter of simple logic.
When available jobs are filled (after recruitment in the domestic labor pool) by legal foreign workers, there will no longer be
jobs to be filled by those who may come here illegally and thus, the magnet that drives much illegal
immigration will be gone.39 Further, because these workers will have been screened and channeled through
a controlled program, border officials will be able to focus their resources on those that pose a real
threat to our countrynot job seekers, but criminals.
Politics: Plan solves High-skilled workers
Mexico is a leader in high-skilled personnelentry barriers hurt us STEM fields
Rosenblum et al. 12
(Marc R. Rosenblum, Coordinator Specialist in Immigration Policy, William A. Kandel, Analyst in
Immigration Policy, Clare Ribando Seelke, Specialist in Latin American Affairs, Ruth Ellen Wasem,
Specialist in Immigration Policy, Mexican Migration to the United States: Policy and Trends June 7, pg
online at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42560.pdf//sd)
Congress has considereda number of proposals in recent years to facilitate the admission of highskilled workers
to the United States.103 With several categories of Mexican nonimmigrant visas not subject to numerical limits,
including the North American Free Trade Act (NAFTA) TN visa for professional workers, the existing system already includes opportunities for additional
temporary educational andemployment migrationfrom Mexico.104 As an increasing proportion of Mexicans
obtain a bachelors degree or higher, more may qualify for professional and cultural exchange visas, and Mexico
may be a ready source of high-skilled labor for the United St ates.105 The most promising avenue for high-
skilled circular migrationmay bein the areas of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. A 2011 multi-country survey
of 4,800 students fromaround the globe found that 69% of Mexican students planned to pursue a STEM educationthe highest proportion of
any country in the survey.106 Yet while the United States remains the leading host country for international students in STEMfields, Mexico is not among the top 10 sending
countries of foreign graduate students pursuing U.S. STEM degrees.107 Increasing the number of Mexicans obtaining
STEM degrees at U.S. universities may prompt U.S. employers to hire more Mexicans with TN or H-1B visas,
and return migration by highskilled Mexicans may make Mexicos economy more competitive. Yet high emigration
levels among talented and educated persons from Mexico also may hinder economic development there, especially if a large proportion of such visitors eventually remain in the United States.


Mexicans are high-skill readytheir labor supply outstrips demand and creates a pool
for migration
Zuniga and Molina 8
(Elena Zuniga, Professor and Researcher of Universidad Auto no ma de Zacatecas, Unidad de
Estudios del Desarrollo, Miguel Molina Independent Consultant in Economic and Financial Matters,
Demographic Trends in Mexico: The Implications for skilled migration 2008, Transatlantic Council on
Migration. MPI pg online at http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/zuniga-paper.pdf//sd)
The data on aggregate flows mask another highly relevant change in the nature of Mexican migration to the United States: it is becoming increasingly skilled. In the 1985-1990 period, just over
three-quarters of new migrants had not completed high school or its equivalent. By the 2000-2005 period, this proportion had dropped to just over two-thirds. Conversely, the share of new migrants with intermediate levels of education16 increased from 21 percent to 34 percent over
the same period. The proportion with higher education1' increased from 3.2 to 4.4 percent. In other words, the group with intermediate education levels grew by 25
percent, and the group with higher education by 21 percent. Both values are much higher than the increase in the /eta/Mexican immigrant flow of 16 percent. In absolute numbers, this translates into average annual flows in the 2000-2005 period of slightly over 20,000
university-educated individuals, 156,000 with an intermediate education level, and 286,000 without high school diplomas. These flows have led to a growing population of Mexican-
born professionals in the United States over the past 15 years. According to CPS, the Mexican-born professional
population rosefrom 209,000 in 1995 to 552,000 in 2007 an average annual rate of 22 percent per rear. Although very small compared to the US professional population of 33 million, it is growing
considerably.15 The Mexican professional population in the United States is substantial compared to the equivalent group at home. As of December 200/, almost 7 million Mexicans in Mexico had a
bachelor's degree or higher, with the number of Mexican-born professionals in the United States equal to 8 percent of those living in Mexico. The pool of university-educated
Mexicans in the United States is growing faster than the pool of equivalent individuals in Mexico (see Figure 6).
Mexican migrants' higher educational levels are linked to the overall educational improvements
achieved in Mexico as a whole during the period. Between 1997 and 2007, the number of Mexicans with a bachelor's degree or higher rose from4.4 million to 7 million. This achievement is the result
of the priority that Mexicans generally, and the federal government in particular, have placed on education. As can be observed also in Figure 6, the number of Mexican-born professionals living in the United States almost doubled during the same period from259,000 to 552,000, an
average annual growth rate of 11 percent, compared to only 6 percent in Mexico. This occurred against a backdrop of economic growth in Mexicothat was nonetheless unable to absorb the increasing
supply of professionals. A recent study on the labor market for professionals in Mexico established that while the number of Mexicans graduating from college grew by 6.7 percent per year between 1990 and 2000, the
Mexican economy grew by only 3.5 percent" , creating a labor market that was not big enough
relative to supply. The study's author estimated that 45 percent of university graduates during this 10-year period were unable to find
employment appropriate to their education level. Essentially, Mexico has been losing its capacity to generate
social mobility21 through education, and to provide appropriate opportunities for educated people.

Labor shortage indict

Their labor data comes from union forces in DConly market mechanisms can predict
future shortages
Stanely-Becker 13
(Tom, Government Research Assistant at University of Chicago, Yale Daily News, Peer-reviewed by Peter
Swenson, Yales C.M. Saden Professor of Political Science. Strange Bedfellows: Business, Labor, Guest
Workers, and Immigration Reform in the United States, 1986-2013 April 19
th
, pg online at
http://www.library.yale.edu/prizes/applebaum/papers/stanley-becker.pdf//sd)
The fundamental disagreement as to whether business should address the ostensible inability to fill
jobs with American workers by raising wages and improving labor conditions or by importing, temporary foreign labor is papered
over by the accord proposal to create a Bureau of Immigration and Labor Market Research. As introduced by former Labor Secretary Ray Marshall, the concept facilitated the reunification of labors position
on immigration reform in 2009, and union leaders adhered to the idea throughout the negotiations. Instead of a system that works at the whim of any
employer, it will be a data-driven system, argued AFL-CIO President Trumka. And the proposal generated business
intense opposition. There are no experts who will know exactly what the economy will need this
was proved by command and control economies . The bureaucracy will never be able to respond to
the economy, countered a representative of hotel employers. We oppose the commission because it would never be able to determine
shortages in a timely manner that reflect the always-changing realities of the marketplace, explained the
Chambers Johnson. 65 The accord leaves unspecified the standards such a Bureau might use to regulate future flows; nor does the accord propose that the Bureau should
possess authority beyond making recommendations to Congress. It is a truce, then, that business and labor have reached in constructing a guest worker accord as a linchpin of immigration reform. The terms of the contest are
vividly captured in a Wall Street Journal editorial on the proposed guest worker research Bureau. Mr. Trumkawants us to believe that a group of appointees in
Washington will be able to know how many cherry pickets, construction workers or software
engineers are needed in 2014. The Chinese Communists dont even believe they can do that anymore. The
Journal concluded, Only employers know how many workers they need, and they need to know they can get
them when they need them.66 By no means did the guest worker accord resolve the most fundamental
dispute between business and unions on the authority of democratic government in regulating the terms of the U.S. market in
global labor.


Demand for Mexican workers will only increase- Key to economy and meeting labor
needs
AILF 2, The American Immigration Law Foundation, a non-profit organization to increasing the public understanding of immigration law and
policy (September 2002, Mexican Immigrant Workers And the U.S. Economy
http://www.robparal.com/downloads/Mexican_immigrant_workers.pdf//nish)

The economic importance of Mexican workers will only continue to grow as job openings for
unskilled and semiskilled workers increase. Governmental and private sector leaders concerned about
strengthening the productivity of the American workforce should therefore implement steps to
maximize the contributions of Mexican workers and minimize any hindrances associated with their admission and
integration into the country. Maximizing the contributions of Mexican workers can take the form of facilitating the ability of American
employers to legally hire needed Mexican workers: to help, as President Bush has said willing employers to get together with willing
employees.8 This can be achieved in part by reducing conditions that force employers to unknowingly hire Mexican workers pressured to
enter the U.S. illegally to obtain a job. As described earlier, the current system of admissions to the U.S. disfavors Mexican workers in
comparison to other immigrants. The need to increase the number of visas or methods of entry for Mexican
workers is clear. Not only would employers be less hindered in responding to worker shortages, but
the dramatic human and social consequences of undocumented immigration would be alleviated.
Hardworking, taxpaying Mexican Americans contribute to our nations economy, and without access
to them, employers face a more difficult challenge of meeting their labor needs.



AFF Unions Bad DA

Unions
Link turn
Status quo guest worker negotiations is a win for unions, but uncapped programs gut
unions with an unrestricted flow of low wage labor
Stanely-Becker 13
(Tom, Government Research Assistant at University of Chicago, Yale Daily News, Peer-reviewed by Peter
Swenson, Yales C.M. Saden Professor of Political Science. Strange Bedfellows: Business, Labor, Guest
Workers, and Immigration Reform in the United States, 1986-2013 April 19
th
, pg online at
http://www.library.yale.edu/prizes/applebaum/papers/stanley-becker.pdf//sd)
The unprecedented guest worker accord is all the more striking in light of the antagonism been
business and unions over other areas of labor policy. In 2009, for example, the Chamber mounted a successful campaign against the Employee Free Choice Act, spending over a million dollars in
advertising to defeat labors key legislative priority. And even as the guest worker negotiations were ongoing, the Chamber promoted law suits aimed at paralyzing the National Labor Relations Board by nullifying President Obamas recess appointments to the Board.62 The
guest worker accord, then, brings together adversaries as odd bedfellows within a bipartisan coalition.63 It
is the linkage between immigration reform and guest worker policy that grounds the new agreement
between business and unions. Rather thanreflecting a fundamental convergence of interests on the flow and regulation of guest
workers, or a settlement, as after a strike, the guest worker accord represents a set of joined but distinct interests created
by the nesting of the guest worker issue within the broader issue of immigration reform. Once a new guest
worker program becamea condition of comprehensive immigration reform, the interest of business in legalizing its employment of the broadest
possible population of foreign labor and the interest of unions in organizing that populationcame to coincide. Moreover, with the growing
salience of the Latino vote, newly evident in the 2012 election, both business and unions have interests in promoting the
immigration reform of the Gang of Eight. Thus, a formof logrolling underlies the guest worker accord, a compromise that
masks continuing division over both the global reach of the U.S. labor market and the authority of
government over guest worker employment.

Its a loss for unions if the program is uncapped
Stanely-Becker 13
(Tom, Government Research Assistant at University of Chicago, Yale Daily News, Peer-reviewed by Peter
Swenson, Yales C.M. Saden Professor of Political Science. Strange Bedfellows: Business, Labor, Guest
Workers, and Immigration Reform in the United States, 1986-2013 April 19
th
, pg online at
http://www.library.yale.edu/prizes/applebaum/papers/stanley-becker.pdf//sd)
The fundamental disagreement as to whether business should address the ostensible inability to fill
jobs with American workers by raising wages and improving labor conditions or by importing, temporary foreign labor is papered
over by the accord proposal to create a Bureau of Immigration and Labor Market Research. As introduced by former Labor Secretary Ray Marshall, the concept facilitated the reunification of labors position
on immigration reform in 2009, and union leaders adhered to the idea throughout the negotiations. Instead of a system that works at the whim of any
employer, it will be a data-driven system, argued AFL-CIO President Trumka. And the proposal generated business
intense opposition. There are no experts who will know exactly what the economy will need this
was proved by command and control economies . The bureaucracy will never be able to respond to
the economy, countered a representative of hotel employers. We oppose the commission because it would never be able to determine
shortages in a timely manner that reflect the always-changing realities of the marketplace, explained the
Chambers Johnson. 65 The accord leaves unspecified the standards such a Bureau might use to regulate future flows; nor does the accord propose that the Bureau should
possess authority beyond making recommendations to Congress. It is a truce, then, that business and labor have reached in constructing a guest worker accord as a linchpin of immigration reform. The terms of the contest are
vividly captured in a Wall Street Journal editorial on the proposed guest worker research Bureau. Mr. Trumkawants us to believe that a group of appointees in
Washington will be able to know how many cherry pickets, construction workers or software
engineers are needed in 2014. The Chinese Communists dont even believe they can do that anymore. The
Journal concluded, Only employers know how many workers they need, and they need to know they can get
them when they need them.66 By no means did the guest worker accord resolve the most fundamental
dispute between business and unions on the authority of democratic government in regulating the terms of the U.S. market in
global labor.
H2-B visas for construction causes union backlash
Stanely-Becker 13
(Tom, Government Research Assistant at University of Chicago, Yale Daily News, Peer-reviewed by Peter
Swenson, Yales C.M. Saden Professor of Political Science. Strange Bedfellows: Business, Labor, Guest
Workers, and Immigration Reform in the United States, 1986-2013 April 19
th
, pg online at
http://www.library.yale.edu/prizes/applebaum/papers/stanley-becker.pdf//sd)
Notwithstanding the expression of unity in February, however, deep differences persisted differences that also re-opened splits within the
union movement. The building trades unions, representing skilled construction workers, have long
been adamantly opposed to guest worker programs. Notably, during the 2007 Senate debates, the AFL-CIOs Building and
Construction Trades Department issued its own Statement of Principles on Comprehensive Immigration Reform, which urged
Congress to reject the creation of a new temporary worker program for the building and construction
industry, and cited the long history of their abuse and the attendant exploitation of temporary workers and
erosion of U.S. workers economic standards, explaining that a new guest worker program would permit
employers to meet labor shortages by importing temporary non-immigrant labor instead of investing
in recruitment and training of new U.S. workers.59 Echoing this position in the 2013 negotiations, the building trades unions
opposed an expanded guest worker program and aimed to exclude construction jobs from those that
could be filled by foreign workers.




Impact turn
Unions goodkey to welfare, efficiency and resource allocation
Donado & Wlde 11 (Alejandro Donado is a Economics Professor @ University of Wrzburg // Klaude
Wlde is a Economics Professor at the Univeresity of Mainz // How Trade Unions Increase Welfare
https://www.econstor.eu/dspace/bitstream/10419/52469/1/671593358.pdf )Lshen
Our article is related to various strands of literature. First, there is obviously a huge literature on trade unions, and it would be impossible to
provide a summary here which does any justice to the various substrands. While it seems fair to argue that most contributions attribute a
distorting (efciency reducing) role to unions,4 there are also some economists who nd positive aspects in union
behaviour: Brugiavini et al. (2001, ch. II.2.1) see unions as the precursor to the modern welfare state. They write on
p. 163 that unions developed mutual insurance as part of associational self-help to compensate for the
lack of private insurance or public social protection. At the same time, they mobilised [...] for the expansion
of social rights. Increasingly, many of the protective functions that unions provided [...] came to be taken over by the
state . 5 A by now wellaccepted argument was made by Freeman and Medoff (1984): by providing
a collective voice , unions provide information which otherwise would not
be available. Malcomson (1983) argues that unions increase efciency as they improve the allocation of risk
bearing between rms and workers. Acemoglu et al. (2001) argue that unions induce training and provide
insurance. Booth and Chatterji (1998) and Viscusi (1979a, ch. 11) show how trade union bargaining with monopsonistic
rms increases social welfare and Agell (1999, p. F144), more generally, argues that certain institutions may
serve quite useful purposes in the labour market. We put forward OHS
standards as an example of such a useful institution. We believe that this benecial historical aspect of worker movements for what are now
modern societies and the role the unions can play in developing countries today has not received sufcient credit so far. Our contribution lies
in the emphasis and analysis, in the framework of a very simple model, of the informational and learning advantage of a union in a world with
incomplete information and side-effects caused by new technologies. Second, and maybe most importantly, our view of multi-feature
workplaces is related to but differs starkly from the equalising-differences approach of Rosen (1974, 1986). Equalising differences are
traditionally derived in setups with perfect information. When workers know about all job characteristics and all
markets are competitive, factor allocation is efcient and any institution would be distorting. Given the
historical situation and technological examples we have in mind, workers having perfect information does not appear to be a realistic
assumption. We therefore choose the other extreme and assume that workers are unable to learn anything about work-related health
implications. While the reality certainly lies somewhere in between, the justication for our assumption is simple: when new technologies
become available, workers and often society as a whole do not know a lot about potential side-effects. Health implications may only become
apparent over the longterm and workers might simply not have the time to learn about these implications. Hence, with regard to learning
processes which take a very long time, we assume right away that it is impossible for the individual workers to learn of health effects. As a
consequence, a decentralised factor allocation is inefcient. In contrast, trade unions consisting of a large number of
workers have access to many observations about jobs, can collect this information and can therefore
learn more easily. In fact, we assume that unions have perfect information and can therefore internalise externalities, increase
efciency, output and welfare. A companion article (Donado and Walde, 2010a) qualitatively and quantitatively studies the effect of
globalisation for labour standards in the North and in the South in the presence of unions as portrayed here.
American unions are uniquely goodprefer empirics
Laroche & Doucouliagos 12 (Chris Doucouliagos is a Professor @ Deakin University // Patrice Laroche is a Professor at
the University of Nancy-France; PhD in Human Resource management @ Nancy University; Adjunct Lecturer @ Cornell The
Effect of Unions on Labor Productivity: A Meta-Analytic Review
http://www.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/Departments/Strategy%20and%20Human%20Resource%20Management/airaanz/old/conferc
e/queenstown2002/pdf/volume1/Doucouliagos%26LarocheRef-TheEffect.pdf ) LShen
Conceptually, unionism can booster or hamper labor productivity and, hence, a firms competitiveness.
Because of that ambiguity over the net effect of unions, all the existing studies begin their empirical
investigation without presupposing a specific direction, leaving the conclusion to empirical findings. However, a common
conceptual framework serves as a starting point for empirical investigation. This conceptual framework is the two faces view of unionism
(Freeman and Medoff, 1984): the monopoly face and the collective voice/institutional response face. Most of the empirical
investigations use a production function framework, specifying a relationship between the key
inputs, mainly labor and capital, and use physical output or value-added based measures of
productivity as the dependent variable. Control variables used include labor quality, market
structure, the capital-tolabor ratio, establishment size and characteristics relating to the firm and/or
employees. In addition, the key variable of interest is some measure of unionization. As in most areas of empirical investigation,
diverse measures of inputs and outputs are used and these can produce differences in the estimated effect of unions. Union
productivity effects have been studied in a variety of industries including construction, cement,
banking and coal industries, as well as studies on the public sector. Most of the studies use U.S. or
U.K. data, and most focus on productivity levels. The majority of US studies found that unions are
associated with higher productivity. In Great Britain and Australia, most of the studies reveal no effect or a negative effect
on labor productivity. In France, unions seem to have a positive effect on productivity whereas in Germany and in Japan it is more
controversial. The reader is referred to the original studies for full details.
Plan solves competitiveness
Strong guest worker program stops US offshoring and sustains domestic business
Stanely-Becker 13
(Tom, Government Research Assistant at University of Chicago, Yale Daily News, Peer-reviewed by Peter
Swenson, Yales C.M. Saden Professor of Political Science. Strange Bedfellows: Business, Labor, Guest
Workers, and Immigration Reform in the United States, 1986-2013 April 19
th
, pg online at
http://www.library.yale.edu/prizes/applebaum/papers/stanley-becker.pdf//sd)
By contrast, critics assailed the compromises embodied in CIRA, claiming that the expansion of the U.S. labor market
across national boundaries would undermine the position of American workers. A group of Democratic
Senators opposed the grand bargain engineered by Kennedy, which had the support of President Bush, instead backing an
amendment introduced by Senator Dorgan that would have eliminated the guest program from the immigration reform
bill. Dorgan argued that it was big business that wanted to move American jobs overseas in search of cheap
labor, and now to enjoy the opportunity to bring, through the back door, cheap labor from other
countries. According to Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA), the co-sponsor of Dorgans amendment, It is a pool of cheap labor at the expense of the
American worker. When that amendment failed by a single vote, after Kennedy persuaded Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HA) to change his vote, Dorgan aimed to limit the guest worker program by introducing
a sunset amendment ending it after five years. Again, he objected to the compromise with business interests: the price for the
support of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce was to allow them to bring in this cheap labor in the form
of guest or temporary workers. That amendment carried by a 49-48 vote, not strictly along party lines. And shortly before that, another amendment, cosponsored by Obama, among others,
reduced the annual flow of guest workers allowed under the new program from 400,000 to 200,000.

Plan decreases wages
Expanded guest worker programs displace American workers and drive down wages
Williams 11
Director of Florida Legal Services Migrant Farmworker Justice Project
WRITTEN TESTIMONY OF ROBERT A. WILLIAMS UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY SUBCOMMITTEE ON IMMIGRATION POLICY AND ENFORCEMENT
September 8,2011 http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/Williams%2009082011.pdf
Most people associate the words "prevailing wage" with the "average wage" or the wages generally paid
workers in an area but that is not how the prevailing wage is defined in the Smith bill. Under his
approach the prevailing wage is defined as the "first level" in a four level wage system. The first level is
actually the median wage for the lowest third of workers in an occupation while the level four wage is
the median for the top two thirds of the wage distribution. The mean wage or the average wage for
workers in the occupation is actually the level three wage. In practice, 80 to 85% of the workers
surveyed are paid more than the first level wage it is by definition a substandard wage. In many areas
of the country, the level one wage is a dollar or more less than the average wage paid crop workers. If
large numbers of workers are admitted to the United States at this wage rate, the average wages paid
agricultural workers will fall to even lower levels than they are today, hastening the exodus of the
remaining U.S. workers from agriculture. In fact, the incentive to displace U.S. workers, as opposed to
unauthorized workers, is greater precisely because U.S. workers are generally paid more than
unauthorized workers.21 The incentives to replace U.S. workers with the new H-2C workers are
further enhanced when one considers that the employer will not have to pay FICA or FUTA taxes on
the H-2C workers' wages. This will make it roughly 10% cheaper to employ an H-2C worker than to
employ an American worker, even without the considerable wage differential established by the new
wage methodology. A concrete example will show just how large the economic incentive to discriminate
against U.S. workers would be under the proposed legislation. The most recent information available
from DOL's Online Wage Library for Foreign Labor Certification shows that livestock workers in Ventura
County, California are paid an average of S12.00 per hour. For a year-round employee that adds up to an
annual income of $24,960. Under the Smith bill, an employer seeking to hire a livestock worker under
the H-2C program would only have to advertise the job at $8.93 per hour. US workers would either
have to accept a rate more than three dollars under the going rate or see the job go to a guest worker.
For the employer, hiring an H-2C worker instead of an American will save $6,386 per year in wages.
However, that is not the only savings; the employer doesn't have to pay employment taxes on the
wages of the H-2C worker resulting in an additional saving of about $2,500 per year. The total savings to
the employer is nearly $9,000 per year. The short-term impact of the Smith bill in reinstating the level
one wage under the H-2A program would be to transfer approximately $150 million per year from U.S.
workers and guest workers to the current H-2A employers. The long-term impact, should the program
expand to the 500,000 worker cap, would be to reduce the earnings of the poorest group of workers
in America by at least a billion dollars per year.