The Mouse That Roars

Ti
ny Jordan's spies have helped the United States hunt down some of its most
dangerous enemies. Now Obama is hoping those spooks can beat the
slamic State.
!" S#$N% #$&&S'S%(T%)!%& *+, +-*.
!arack Obama's administration says that more than three
do/en countries have pledged to 0oin its new 1ght against the slamic State,
from Saudi $rabia, one of the region's richest countries, to %gypt, one of its
largest and best'armed. The most important help, though, could come from
Jordan, one of the )iddle %ast's tiniest nations. !ut it's not boots on the
ground that Jordan will provide2 t's intelligence, gleaned from a network of
spies and informants who have helped the $mericans nab some of their
worst enemies and, 3ashington hopes, will be able to do so again.
Jordan played a key role in helping U.S. intelligence hunt down and kill $bu
)usab al'4ar5awi, the former leader of al 6aeda in ra5, the slamic State's
predecessor, according to former U.S. and Jordanian o7cials. Outside of
srael, Jordan's intelligence service is widely seen as the most competent
and the closest to U.S. intelligence organi/ations. )any of its senior sta8
members were trained by the 9$, former U.S. o7cials say. That has helped
Jordan, despite its small si/e, craft an intelligence service capable of wins
like nabbing 4ar5awi and helping the $mericans 5uell a Sunni insurgency in
ra5 in +--:.
The Jordanian mukhabarat has also had some misses, most notably when it
recommended that the 9$ work with a Jordanian doctor, #umam ;halil
$bu')ulal al'!alawi, who turned out to be a double agent working for al
6aeda. On <ec. =-, +-->, !alawi blew himself up at a U.S. base in ;host,
$fghanistan, killing nine people, including seven $merican 9$ o7cers and
contractors, as well as a Jordanian intelligence o7cer. t was the deadliest
attack on 9$ personnel since a suicide bombing at the U.S. %mbassy in
!eirut in *>?=. Jordan has also been accused of torturing suspected
terrorists and condoning brutal interrogation methods that the United
States has disavowed.
<espite the massive intelligence failure that culminated in the ;host attack,
o7cials say that the U.S.'Jordanian alliance is strong and productive.
@Jordan has a very strong intelligence service. t has in1ltrated Athe slamic
StateB in the past,@ said )arwan )uasher, who served as Jordan's foreign
minister from +--+ to +--. and then as deputy prime minister until +--C.
$ former U.S. intelligence o7cial also credited the Jordanians with helping
to 1nd 4ar5awi and said its Deneral ntelligence <irectorate has been an
especially close partner with the 9$ since the >E** terrorist attacks. @From
an intelligence'collection perspective, Jordan has the geographic
advantage,@ the source said, owing to its central location and borders with
ra5 and Syria. @$ big part of what they'll do for the U.S. will be intelligence
collection@ including running networks of spies and recruiting informants in
ra5 and Syria to help root out slamic State members and understand the
group's hierarchy and organi/ational structure. Since the group overran key
ra5i cities and sei/ed vast swaths of territory this past summer, U.S.
intelligence agencies have been trying to understand how the group
operates.
Jordanian intelligence @is known to have networks in ra5 which date from
+--= Athe year of the U.S. invasionB forward,@ said &obert !lecher, the
acting program director for the )iddle %ast and North $frica at the
nternational 9risis Droup. @The Jordanians have good connections and have
tapped them before,@ !lecher added. They'll have to do so again.
!ut it's not 0ust Jordan's spying prowess that the United States needs.
Jordanian intelligence also has ins with ra5i Sunni tribes aligned with the
slamic State. <uring the ra5 war, the United States managed to turn those
tribes against al 6aeda in ra5 and got them to 1ght with the $mericans.
That was a key pillar in the strategy that ultimately helped defeat the
terrorist group, albeit temporarily. )uasher said that the Jordanians'
connections with those Sunni tribal leaders could now @play a very
important role in turning them away from@ the slamic State. n July, U.S.
Secretary of State John ;erry met with Sunni tribal sheikhs in $mman,
Jordan, and urged them to turn against the militant group.
The Jordanians are also likely to provide logistical support to the $merican
air campaign, which has so far launched more than *C- strikes against
slamic State 1ghters, vehicles, and artillery using drones and manned
aircraft. GThe 9$ now says that the militant group has recruited as many as
=*,C-- 1ghters, up from an earlier estimate of *-,---.H !lecher said that
Jordan has allowed the U.S. military to use its air bases throughout the past
decade, though Jordanian o7cials are reluctant to acknowledge that.
)uasher said the country will likely lend logistical support but that he didn't
envision a role in direct military operations. @That's probably not in the
cards,@ he said. @)ilitary e8orts have to be led by the United States.@
The 9$ already trains Syrian rebels in Jordan. The agency has been
reluctant to arm them for fear of $merican weapons falling into the hands
of 1ghters who might turn around and 0oin forces with the slamic State. !ut
for several months the 9$ has been vetting Syrian rebel groups, an e8ort
directly overseen by the agency's director, John !rennan, and that work has
paid o8, a senior administration o7cial said. @3e have far greater
con1dence about who we're dealing with.@
Now the Obama administration wants to ramp up the mission and have the
<efense <epartment train and e5uip those Syrian rebels. Saudi $rabia has
agreed to host the facilities for that pro0ect.
The Jordanians' cooperation isn't motivated solely by its long'standing
alliance with the United States. The slamic State is a profound threat within
Jordan. The Sunni militant group envisions eIpanding its reach beyond ra5
and Syria. $nd eIperts said that slamic State 1ghters could covertly slip
into Jordan by hiding among the millions of refugees who have poured over
the border from Syria, escaping that country's brutal civil war.
The Jordanian government estimates that more than *.= million Syrian
refugees are in Jordan and that between +-- and =-- Jow over the border
every day. @ think there's concern about SS already operating in that
population or being able to in1ltrate more easily into Jordan through that
population,@ said !laise )is/tal, the director of foreign policy at the
!ipartisan (olicy 9enter in 3ashington, referring to the group by one of its
acronyms. Dulf countries, fearing the Jordanian monarchy could crumble
under the strain of the refugee crisis, are funneling tens of billions of dollars
in direct aid to $mman.
Jordanian leaders at the highest levels are alarmed by the slamic State
threat. @The crisis in Syria has shown us that transnational terrorists have
no regard for borders K as well as the challenge we face when those
terrorist organi/ations or those eItremists return back to their host
countries,@ Jordan's ;ing $bdullah stated in June after the slamic State
overran )osul, ra5's second'largest city. %Iperts estimate that as many as
L-- Jordanians are 1ghting with the slamic State and that thousands of
others have left their country to 1ght with al'Nusra Front, al 6aeda's Syrian
a7liate. GThe slamic State o7cially severed from al 6aeda after its leaders
failed to heal a breach between the group and al'Nusra Front. The slamic
State declared a caliphate in ra5 and Syria in June.H
Obama administration o7cials have been shuttling around the )iddle %ast
this week to secure countries' participation in the anti'slamic State
coalition. !ut for months now, 3ashington has been hearing from $mman
about the growing threat that the militant group poses.
@n discussions with governments in the region, notably the Saudis and the
Jordanians, what is clear is that we have a very common view of this
threat,@ one senior administration o7cial who has spent time in the region
said in a conference call. @The Jordanians are eIperiencing a destabili/ing
impact@ from the crush of refugees @and are profoundly concerned@ that the
slamic State will not con1ne its territorial ambitions to ra5 and Syria.
!lecher, of the nternational 9risis Droup, said that in his visits to Jordan,
o7cials showed him maps of how they predict the region may look one day
if the Syrian civil war and sectarian violence in ra5 are left unchecked2
Syria and ra5 were !alkani/ed into di8erent de facto states, and an slamic
caliphate sat right in the middle. @They have long feared that. $nd when the
slamic State was announced, they felt they were watching that map
materiali/e before their eyes,@ !lecher said.
Now, with the United States building a coalition of do/ens of countries to
combat the slamic State, Jordan may 1nally feel that the world is on its
side. !ut ;ing $bdullah has to tread a 1ne line between siding with his
allies and resuscitating a faltering economy strained under the weight of
the refugees.
Jordan @is feeling like it's bearing the brunt of these conJicts,@ said <alia
<assa ;aye, the director of &and 9orp.'s 9enter for )iddle %ast (ublic
(olicy, in a call with reporters. @There is a concern that by entering more
conJicts in the region, Jordan will face more uncertainty and instability at
home.K t's going to be a very tough tightrope for ;ing $bdullah to walk.@
Kate Brannen contributed reporting.
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