Professional Documents
Culture Documents
In essence, mitigation
is our number one
preparedness strategy.
If we do not stop the
growth of and eventually
reverse greenhouse
gas emissions, then our
opportunity to adapt will
be limited by the rapid
pace of climate change.
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 12
No person, people, or
nation will be spared.
Only the degree by which
we will have to adapt is
in question.
No person, people, or nation will be spared. Only the degree by which we will have to adapt is
in question.
And if ever there was an issue in the public domain that cried out for the involvement of our
younger generation in this great country it is climate change. Every time I hear someone say that
new energy policy is just too expensive or we dont have the money to build a more robust levee
system right now I wonder how the next generation of Americans would calculate those costs.
However, climate change is also the greatest opportunity our society and world has ever faced. If
we do what it takes to reduce greenhouse gas pollution to safe levels and prepare for the impacts
that we see are underway, we will transform the economic foundation of modern civilization
and can seize the opportunity to realize better health, social justice, and sustainable economic
development throughout the world. We have the choice to act, and we must.
Solutions to this crisis vary from the simple to the complex from changing light bulbs to
comprehensive international cap and trade regulations. Likewise, preparedness solutions range
from water conservation programs to regional ood control zoning districts. But at the heart of
the crisis driving our need for any of these solutions is the worlds reliance on fossil fuels for
energy.
Our addiction to fossil fuels promotes dependence on foreign oil, which
compromises national security. Our addiction to fossil fuels also undermines
our eorts to create new markets in clean, sustainable forms of energy.
Te co-benets of reducing dependency on fossil fuels are profound. New
advances in renewable energy, architectural design, sustainable building
materials, 21st century urban planning that strategically locates where we
live, work and play in one geographic, pedestrian friendly community are
just a few elements of this bright new future. Others include the new role agriculture is playing in
the production of sustainable energy, and the critical importance of growing and purchasing local
food as a strategy for building sustainable communities.
Te potential benets of growth in much-needed living wage jobs are no less signicant. We
have endless opportunities to create domestic jobs as we build and redesign our homes and
buildings to be energy ecient and sustainable, and as we construct our physical infrastructure
to be climate resilient. Similarly, the opportunities to develop jobs by stimulating markets in
clean energy technologies such as wind, solar, geothermal and biofuels are limited only by our
imagination and our collective determination to create real change.
Tese benets are immediately relevant on a local level. For example here in Washington, roughly
$30 million is spent each day on oil and gas. Most of that money leaves the state, contributing
nothing to local economic development. By investing in biofuels made from crops grown in
Washington, we can keep more of those energy dollars in the state, help local farmers, and create
new jobs. Economic opportunities like those that we will realize in Washington can exist in every
region of our country.
At the same time, taking the opportunity to adapt to climate change impacts will also bring
benets, if we act now. We can protect our valuable homes and families from ooding if we act
now. In some regions of the world, we can also capture new agricultural opportunities, if we
observe changes in crop patterns based on new average temperatures and precipitation patterns.
A GUIDEBOOK FOR LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND STATE GOVERNMENTS 13
A Call to Action
Whether you view climate change as a crisis, an opportunity, or both, it is a reality. Tis
guidebook is about how to take immediate action, to adapt eectively to that reality. Te time to
delay, defer, or deny is over. We must act.
I am eager to help build a more optimistic future one of peace and prosperity. But I am also
grounded by the fact that we must prepare our communities right now for the harmful impacts
that we know are coming.
As Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Homes once said, A hundred years after we are
gone and forgotten, those who never heard of us will be living with the results of our actions.
Likewise, I will not be here in the Puget Sound region in 50 years, but 2.5 million people will be.
Te actions my community takes today will aect how climate change impacts those 2.5 million
residents.
Foresight and preparedness are good government. Tey are the essence of what we do as leaders.
Te steps we take now to anticipate and get ready for climate change will have profound impacts
on the world our children and grandchildren inherit.
Whether you are a public ocial like I am, an advisor to a regional government, or an agency
sta member, this guidebook oers you a framework for starting to prepare for climate change.
In the pages that follow you will discover a critical tool in essence, a road map for actions that
your government organization can put in place today to help prepare your community to adapt
to a changing climate. Te actions you take now will have signicant impacts for generations
to come.
I hope this guidebook takes the mystery out of planning for climate change. I hope it
inspires you.
And I hope your leadership is rewarded with a stronger, safer community that is prepared for the
greatest threat and the greatest opportunity we will ever face.
Ron Sims
King County, Washington
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 14
15
chapter 2 a scientic overview of
climate change and its impacts
Human activities have changed the Earths atmosphere and climate in ways that will continue for
centuries to come. Tis chapter briey explains how and why these changes are happening.
2.1 A Brief Overview of Climate Change
Life on Earth as we know it today is made possible by relatively warm temperatures. Without gases
like water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO
2
), and methane in the atmosphere, the Earth would be much
colder than it is now averaging 0F instead of about 59F and most of the water on the planet
would be frozen. At certain levels, these greenhouse gases make the planet livable for humans and
many other kinds of plants and animals by trapping some of the heat radiating outward from the
Earth (Figure 2.1), much like the walls of a greenhouse trap heated air. Tis process of limiting heat
loss through the atmosphere is called the greenhouse eect.
Trough everyday activities such as burning fossil fuels (e.g., oil, coal, natural gas), agricultural
practices, and clearing forests, humans have released large amounts of heat trapping greenhouse
gases into the atmosphere in a short period of time (Table 2.1, Figure 2.2). Since about 1750 this
rapid and large release of greenhouse gases has caused important changes in the composition of the
Earths atmosphere and, consequently, in our global climate.
Table 2.1 Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations between 1750 (the start of the
Industrial Age) and 2005. Concentrations of carbon dioxide are measured in parts per million
(ppm), which refers to the total number of carbon dioxide molecules per one million molecules
of dry air by volume. Methane and nitrous oxide are measured in parts per billion (ppb).
Source(s): IPCC 2001a, USEPA 2006abc, IPCC 2007b
Green-
house gas
Percent
change
1750-2005
2005
atmospheric
concentration
Historical
perspective
on current
concentration
Major sources,
human and natural
Carbon
dioxide
+35% 379 ppm Higher than
any in the past
650,000 years
Fossil fuel use, deforestation and
land use changes, agriculture, ce-
ment production, decomposition
of organic matter, oxidation of
organic carbon in soils, oceans
Methane +142% 1,774 ppb Higher than
any in at least
650,000 years
Agriculture, fossil fuel use, ru-
minants (e.g., cows) and manure
management, landlls, wetlands,
decomposition of organic matter
Nitrous
oxide
+18% 319 ppb Appears to be
higher than
any in the past
650,000 years
Agriculture, fossil fuel use, animal
manure management, sewage treat-
ment, nitric acid production, variety
of biological sources in soil and water
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 16
g
re
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n
h
o
u
s
e
g
a
s
e
s
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
Increasing the amount of greenhouse
gases intensifies the greenhouse
effect. This side of the globe
simulates conditions today, roughly
two centuries after the Industrial
Revolution began.
Natural
Greenhouse Effect
The greenhouse effect is a
natural warming process.
Carbon dioxide and certain
other gases are always present in
the atmosphere. These gases
create a warming effect that has
some similarity to the
warming inside a greenhouse.
1
1
2
3
4
6
5
Figure 2.1 The Greenhouse Effect
Visible sunlight passes through the atmosphere without being absorbed. Some of the sunlight striking the earth
is absorbed and converted to heat, which warms the surface. The surface emits heat to the atmosphere, where
some of it is absorbed by greenhouse gases and re-emitted toward the surface; some of the heat is not trapped
by greenhouse gases and escapes into space. Human activities that emit additional greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere increase the amount of heat that gets absorbed before escaping to space, thus enhancing the
greenhouse effect and amplifying the warmth of the earth. Figure adapted from illustration by the Marian
Koshland Science Museum, National Academy of Sciences, USA. Figure used with permission.
1
2
3 4
5
6
A GUIDEBOOK FOR LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND STATE GOVERNMENTS 17
Perhaps the most noticeable of these changes is that, on average,
the Earth is getting warmer. Scientists have observed an increase
in the worlds average surface temperature over the last century,
resulting in the popular term global warming. Global average air
temperature increased about 1.3F during the 20th century (1906-
2005) (IPCC 2007a). Most of this warming occurred in the second
half of the 20th century and is likely to have been the largest increase
in temperature of any century in at least the last 1,300 years (ibid).
Te worlds leading scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) now attribute most of the observed increase
in temperature since the mid-20th century to human activities with
more than 90 percent certainty. For more information on the IPCC,
see Box 2.1.
Evidence of our rapid warming trend is found throughout the world:
glaciers are in widespread retreat (Figure 2.3); sea-ice is thinner
and covers less area; snow cover has decreased; plants are blooming
earlier; plant, insect, and animal species are shifting ranges; and sea level has risen, caused by both
the expansion of warmer ocean water and the addition of water from melting ice sheets (IPCC
2001a, Parmesan and Galbraith 2004, IPCC 2007a)
Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal,
as is now evident from
observations of increases in
global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread
melting of snow and ice, and
rising global average sea
level.
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC 2007)
Box 2.1 Who is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the World
Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. The IPCC is comprised
of hundreds of experts from around the world who are responsible for providing comprehensive,
objective, transparent, and up-to-date evaluations of the current state of knowledge about climate
change and its impacts on the world. The IPCC does not carry out direct scientic research on
climate change. Instead, its reports are based mainly on other published, peer-reviewed scientic
research, following strict procedures to ensure objectivity and transparency. IPCC report summaries,
CD ROMs and Technical Papers are available free of charge. For more information on the IPCC, see
http://www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm.
(Source: IPCC, http://www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm)
2.2 How Warm Will The World Get?
How warm the world will get, and how that warming will aect the worlds human communities
and ecosystems, is being studied intensively. Te most comprehensive assessment of these
questions, released in a report by the IPCC every ve years, projects that global average
temperature will increase by 3.2 to 7F by 2100 (the best estimate range)
1
relative to the
average temperature for 1980-1999 (Figure 2.4) (IPCC 2007a). It is important to note that these
are projections, not predictions (see Box 2.2). For more on how scientists project future global
climate change and its national, regional and local impacts, see Appendix B.
1
Te full range (5th to 95th percentile) of 21st century global climate change projections is 2.0F to 11.5F
(IPCC 2007a).
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 18
C
a
r
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o
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e
(
p
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270
300
10000 5000
+18%
+35% +142%
0
Time (before 2005)
10000 5000 0
Time (before 2005)
10000 5000 0
Time (before 2005)
330
500
1000
1500
2000
250
200
350
1800
Year
1900 2000
1800
Year
1900 2000
1800
Year
1900 2000
240
270
300
300
350
400
330
500
1000
1500
2000
The atmospheric concentration of three
important greenhouse gases carbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous oxide has changed
significantly over the last 10,000 years (large
panels) and since 1750 (inset panels). The percent
change in the concentration of each greenhouse
gas from 1750 to 2005 is also shown in the inset
panels. Concentrations of carbon dioxide are
measured in parts per million (ppm), which refers
to the total number of carbon dioxide molecules
per one million molecules of dry air by volume.
Methane and nitrous oxide are measured in parts
per billion (ppb). Measurements shown include
those taken from air trapped in Antarctic and
Greenland ice cores (symbols with different colors
for different studies) and direct atmospheric
sampling (red lines). Figure adapted from:
IPCC 2007a. Used with permission.
Figure 2.2 Changes in the Atmospheric Concentration of Three Important Greenhouse Gases
A GUIDEBOOK FOR LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND STATE GOVERNMENTS 19
A. Muir Glacier, 1941 C. Boulder Glacier, 1932
B. Muir Glacier, 2004 D. Boulder Glacier, 2005
Figure 2.3 Rapid Changes in Glaciers Reveal the Impact of 20th Century Warming
Photos of Muir Glacier in Alaska's Glacier Bay National
Park in (A) 1941 and (B) 2004. Warmer temperatures
have contributed to melting of the 2,000 foot thick
glacier and growth of vegetation in areas once covered
by the glacier. Photo source: (A) U.S. Geological Survey,
(B) U.S. Geological Survey by Bruce Molnia.
Photos used with permission.
Photos of Boulder Glacier in Montana's Glacier
National Park in (C) 1932 and (D) 2005. Only 26 of the
150 named glaciers in existence in 1850 remain. Model
projections indicate that all of the park's glaciers will
melt by 2030. Photo source: (C) T.J. Hileman, courtesy of
Glacier National Park Archives, (D) Greg Pederson,
courtesy of the USGS Repeat Photography Project.
Photos used with permission.
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 20
Box 2.2 What Is the Difference between Climate Projections and Climate Predictions?
Climate change projections are an estimate of the
response of the climate system to possible future
greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions over the
next century and are typically based on climate
model simulations. (See Appendix B for more
information about how these projections are
constructed.)
Climate predictions, or forecasts, can be thought
of as declarations of future conditions based
on the premise that we know how various
components of a system are going to evolve given
their current status and our ability to simulate
their evolution in time.
The term climate projections is used in this
guidebook in recognition that 21st century
climate scenarios will vary depending on
changes in global greenhouse gas emissions
and the Earths sensitivity to those changes.
The greenhouse gas emission scenarios, in turn,
are based on assumptions about the future
evolution of society, including assumptions about
demographic, socioeconomic, and technological
developments that may or may not actually occur
in the future. Each of these variables can follow
different trajectories through the 21st century,
leading to a range of potential temperature
changes, for example, rather than a single
estimate.
Tis projected warming has signicant global implications (IPCC 2007a,b, Parry et al. 2007),
including the following concerns:
sea ice and snow cover losses will continue, and declining snowpack
will aect snow-dependent water supplies and streamow levels around
the world;
sea level is projected to rise 7 to 23 inches during the 21st century
due to melting snow and ice on land and thermal expansion of
ocean waters;
the risk of drought and the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat
waves are expected to increase;
more extreme precipitation is likely, increasing the risk of ooding;
if the worlds average temperature warms only an additional 2.7 to
4.5F above pre-industrial levels, an estimated 20 to 30 percent of
known plant and animal species would be at increasingly high risk
of extinction.
Many of these changes are already underway. Furthermore, it is probable (at a likelihood greater
than 66 percent) that many of the changes observed over the last 30 years can be linked at least
partially to human-caused climate change (IPCC 2007b).
2.3 Projected National and Regional Consequences of
Climate Change
Climate change impacts will be even more pronounced at the local and regional scales than at the
national and global levels (NAST 2000). In 2000, the U.S. Global Change Research Program
released the rst national assessment of climate change impacts on the United States (ibid).
Te report examined how 21st century climate may change in the U.S. and provided an initial
F
)
Year
G
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4.0
3.0
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1900 2000 2100
A2 (high)
A1B (medium)
B1 (low)
Year 2000 Constant
Concentrations
20th Century
Figure 2.4 Global Temperature Projections For The 21st Century
This figure shows the range of global surface temperature projections for the 21st century relative to
average global surface temperature for the period 1980-99. The projections are based on low (B1),
medium (A1B), and high (A2) scenarios of greenhouse gas and other human-related emissions (e.g.,
aerosols such as sulfur dioxide). Solid lines show the multi-model average temperature change for
each emission scenario. Shading denotes the + 1 standard deviation range of individual model annual
averages. The orange line represents the change in average global surface temperature that would
be expected if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations were held constant at year 2000 values.
Note that the warming from all of these emissions scenarios would continue well beyond 2100.
Figure adapted from IPCC 2007a. Used with permission.
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 22
assessment of major national and regional vulnerabilities to climate. A map of the U.S. National
Assessment regions is shown in Figure 2.5.
Te U.S. National Assessment found many common national concerns, including the following:
average annual air temperature is projected to increase in all regions of
the country, with the average national increase projected at the time of
the assessment to be 5-9F by the end of the 21st century;
warmer temperatures, and in some regions lower snowpack, are
expected to increase the risk of drought across the country;
sea level rise and increased storm surges are expected to pose greater
threats to coastal ecosystems and human communities;
shifts in the types and distribution of forest species are likely;
a near-term increase in forest growth is expected in most regions,
because moderate increases in temperature and atmospheric
concentrations of CO
2
have a temporary fertilizing eect (a
phenomenon referred to as the CO
2
fertilization eect). On the other
hand, overall forest growth could decrease over the long term, due to
increased forest res, insect outbreaks, and disease;
natural ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to projected warming
given that many natural ecosystems are not able to prepare for or adjust
quickly to climate change impacts, and also given that non-native
species may benet from climate change more than native species;
in all regions, the results of non-climate stresses (e.g., habitat
fragmentation and patterns of human development) will be exacerbated
by climate change impacts.
Te U.S. National Assessment also found important dierences in how climate change could
aect dierent regions of the country. Decreases in snowpack, for example, will have greater
implications for water supplies in the western U.S., where snowmelt runo is the primary source
of water supply, than in most other regions of the country. Changes in agricultural production
vary depending on the region and crop; agriculture in northern regions (the Midwest, West, and
Pacic Northwest) generally fared better under climate change scenarios than southern regions.
Human health impacts, changes in extreme events, and impacts on coastal ecosystems also vary
from region to region. An overview of impacts to U.S. regions is provided in Appendix C.
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A GUIDEBOOK FOR LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND STATE GOVERNMENTS 39
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PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 40
4.1.3 What are the Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Your Region?
Changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level can aect communities in a variety of ways. It is often
useful to group this information in relation to sectors a general grouping used to describe any resource,
ecological system, species, management area, activity or other area of interest that may be aected by
climate change.
Table 4.2 lists potential impacts for common sectors. Impacts for your region would likely include some of the
impacts listed there. Te information sources identied in 4.1.1 are also good starting points for learning more
about projected climate change impacts in your region. Additionally, sector-specic climate change reports
(e.g., special reports on water resources, forest resources, etc.) may include information relevant to your region.
INITIAL SCOPING: A SAMPLE OF SECTORS AND POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Sector Impacts in some regions could include
Hydrology and
water resources
Shift in the timing of spring snowmelt to earlier in the spring
Lower summer streamows, particularly in snowmelt-dependent water systems in
the western U.S.
Increased risk of drought
Increased risk of ooding
Increased competition for water
Warmer water temperature in lakes and rivers
Changes in water quality (varies by water quality parameter)
Forests (includ-
ing parks and
urban forests)
Increase in growth and productivity in the near-term where soil moisture is
adequate and re risk is low
Shift in the distribution and range of species
Increased risk of insect outbreaks
Increased risk of forest re
Increased competition from invasive species
Recreation Increased opportunities for warm season activities in milder regions of the U.S.
Decreased opportunities for warm season activities during the hottest part of
the year, particularly in the southern U.S. (e.g., from heat, forest res, low water
levels, reduced urban air quality)
Reduced opportunities for cold season recreation due to decreased snowpack
and/or reduced snow or ice quality
Increased reliance on snow-making at ski areas
Shifts in tourism dollars within a community from one recreation sector to
another, or from communities losing recreational opportunities to communities
gaining opportunities
Infrastructure Need for new or upgraded ood control and, erosion control structures
More frequent landslides, road washouts, and ooding
Increased demands on stormwater management systems with the
potential for more combined stormwater and sewer overows
Reduced effectiveness of sea walls with sea level rise
Coastal resources
and ecosystems
Increased erosion or damage to coastal infrastructure, dunes, beaches, and other
natural features due to sea level rise and storm surge
Loss of coastal wetlands and other coastal habitats due to sea level rise, erosion
Increased costs for maintenance and expansion of coastal erosion control (natural
or man-made)
Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers due to sea level rise
Increased risk of pollution from coastal hazardous waste sites due to sea level rise
Loss of cultural and historical sites on coastline to sea level rise and related
impacts
Business Price volatility in energy and raw product markets due to more extreme
weather events
Increased insurance premiums due to more extreme weather events
Fewer shipping disruptions associated with snow and ice
Impacts on business infrastructure located in oodplains or coastal areas
Shifts in business opportunities
Health More heat-related stress, particularly among the elderly, the poor, and other
vulnerable populations
Fewer extreme cold-related health risks
Increase in vector-born illnesses (e.g., West Nile)
Reduced summer air quality in urban areas due to increased production of
ground-level ozone
Emergency
response
Increased demands on emergency response services related to extreme weather
events (e.g., heat, ooding, storms)
Sources: NAST 2000, IPCC 2001b, NAST 2001, Mote et al. 2003, UKCIP 2003
Table 4.2 A sample of sectors and potential climate change impacts. Planning for climate change requires
identifying which sectors of a community are likely to be affected by a changing climate. Most communities
will be sensitive to climate change in one or more of the sectors listed above. The likelihood of any one
impact occurring will vary by community. This list is not all-inclusive; other impacts not listed here may
also occur.
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 42
Depending on your information needs, resources, and the amount of climate change information
available for your region, a preliminary list of impacts like Table 4.2 (but tailored to your region)
may be sucient for launching for your preparedness planning eort. As you develop your
list, identify the various departments and/or programs that may be aected by these projected
impacts. Tis information will help you determine which departments need to be involved in
developing your preparedness plan.
In some cases a more detailed assessment may be needed to gather necessary support from your
internal and external stakeholders. In all cases, more detailed information will be needed for your
vulnerability assessment and developing your preparedness plan. For each source you examine,
evaluate and record:
the sector(s) and/or types of species (where relevant) covered by the
study
the changes (impacts) projected by the study
the time period in which those changes are expected (e.g., the 2020s,
2040s, 2100) and the reference period for comparison (e.g., 1950-2000
average conditions)
how the size of the projected changes compare to recent conditions
the models and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios used
the amount of condence in the projections (to the extent that this can
be assessed)
the geographic area covered by the study
the departments and/or programs within your community government
that will be aected by the projected impacts
any other details that may be important for comparing and assessing the
study results.
As with your research on changes in regional climate, record when projected impacts dier from
study to study, and track the reasons that may have led those dierent conclusions. Remember
that climate change impacts are estimated based on specic climate change scenarios; you will
likely nd a range of impact scenarios when there are a variety of climate change projections.
Impact scenarios can also vary because of dierent methodologies and uncertainty associated with
translating climate changes into sectoral changes, e.g., changes in water supply or re risk.
Whether or not you need to consider a full range of impact scenarios depends partially on
whether the climate change scenarios used to create them are up-to-date. For example, you might
read a report that projects increased tree growth in your regions forests during the summer.
Examining the context of that projection, you may realize that the report is based on a scenario
of signicant increases in summertime precipitation. Your research on projected regional climate
change, however, may have clearly indicated that summertime precipitation is now projected
to decrease slightly. Given that the projected impact was based on outdated climate change
scenarios, you might choose to eliminate it from consideration. Alternately, you might recall that
Consider proposing a
resolution that directs your
government to form a team
and take steps to prepare
for climate change, including
writing a preparedness plan
with regular updates.
A GUIDEBOOK FOR LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND STATE GOVERNMENTS 45
If the answer is unclear, you may want to look for additional information and/or consult
with local experts again (when available) to review your initial assessment. Box 6.2 provides
information on identifying and selecting science advisors. Alternatively, the initial scoping
exercise may show there are currently few impacts to the community that warrant preparedness
actions. If so, stay tuned to developments in climate change science and your impacts assessment.
New information may change your initial assessment.
Te planning process provided in this guidebook can and should be scaled to the level that
is appropriate for your community. At one end of the spectrum, you may need to work on this
process in incremental steps, focusing initially on a simple literature review, reducing vulnerability
to todays climate and weather events in one or two key sectors, and basic public education. At
the other end of the spectrum, you may decide to launch an ocially-recognized, multi-sector
climate change preparedness program using a formally established preparedness team, a full-
time preparedness coordinator, and new research (where appropriate) to examine climate change
impacts and preparedness needs across multiple government departments.
Checkpoint: Upon nishing this section, you should have passed a resolution that directs your
government to form a team and take steps to prepare for climate change, including writing
a preparedness plan with regular updates.
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 46
47
chapter 5 build and maintain support
to prepare for climate change
Once you have scoped out the impacts of climate change to your communitys sectors, you are
ready to develop the support needed from your community and executive-level leaders to conduct
a climate resiliency study. Outreach will play a major role in building and maintaining support
to launch your planning eort. At later stages of planning, your work will also benet from the
investment in outreach by creating a common understanding among your various partners and
stakeholders of how your regions climate may change in the coming decades. Tese partners and
stakeholders may include public ocials, local government sta, key businesses, non-governmental
organizations, and the general public. To help build and maintain support for preparedness
planning, this chapter provides guidance on how to:
identify a climate change champion
identify your target audience for your outreach activities
develop a preparedness message
spread the preparedness message.
As in other stages of the process, you should scale your activities related to building and
maintaining support to t your local, regional or state circumstances. Most importantly, you should
also recognize that preparing for climate change requires an ongoing commitment to internal
(i.e., within your government) and external (i.e., with the community-at-large) outreach at levels
appropriate for your community.
5.1 Identify or Cultivate a Champion for Preparedness
Across local, regional and state governments already planning for climate change, at least one
element is common: all have a leader or leaders at the high level of government who are committed
to learning about climate change impacts and to making the hard decisions that will prepare that
region most eectively for those impacts (Penney and Wieditz 2007). Tese hard decisions can be
vulnerable to criticism when they challenge the status quo. Terefore, the champion who leads this
change must be respected and trusted by the public and other leaders, conversant about climate
change impacts, and willing to take risks by developing policy recommendations that will be
dierent in some areas from the old ways of doing business.
Box 5.1 The Future Aint What It Used to Be: Planning for Climate Disruption
The King County, Washington, Climate Change Conference
On October 25, 2005, King County, Washington, convened a major conference to discuss projected
climate change impacts for Washington State, potential adaptation strategies, and broader goals for
moving forward on planning for climate change. The conference, titled The Future Aint What It
Used to Be: Planning for Climate Disruption, featured speakers from across disciplines and levels of
government, including researchers, public ofcials, tribal representatives, private sector leaders, and
citizens from across the region. The audience was equally diverse. Details on how the conference was
organized are provided here.
Work in partnership. King County co-hosted the
conference with 17 partners and 23 contributing
organizations. Organizations represented a
variety of different sectors, elds, and expertise,
including insurance and nancial services,
environmental engineering, construction,
architecture, and non-prot climate change
advocacy organizations. Municipal government
partners included the City and Port of Seattle.
King County gained nancial sponsorship, in-
kind services and support from these entities
and individuals by providing them with time
at the speakers podium, advertising space
and opportunities to participate in shaping
the discussion sessions. The conference also
signicantly strengthened the countys existing
relationship with the Climate Impacts Group at the
University of Washington.
Develop a common picture of climate change and
its regional consequences. Organizers worked
with the Climate Impacts Group to prepare 1) a
scientic white paper about the effects of climate
change, and 2) a series of primers containing
compelling discussion questions about how to
begin planning. These materials were distributed
to participants at the conference and used to
guide discussions during the conference working
sessions. Organizers also structured the bookend
plenary sessions 1) to provide an overview of
climate change science, given by scientists, to
establish a common understanding of the way
regional climate has already changed and is
projected to change, and 2) to elicit perspectives
from elected ofcials to establish political
direction and support for adaptation. More than
a year after the conference, the background
materials continue to be critical for developing a
shared regional picture of climate change impacts
to the Puget Sound region, and inspiring and
guiding action across the region and within
King County government.
A GUIDEBOOK FOR LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND STATE GOVERNMENTS 53
Bring both scientic expert and stakeholder
voices to the discussion. Conference organizers
consciously brought together scientic experts,
public ofcials, and stakeholders to begin to
wrestle with the range of compelling questions
about how to move forward. Speakers included
former New Jersey Governor and former
administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency Christine Todd Whitman, the mayor
of Washington States capitol (Olympia), and
the business director of the Port of Seattle.
From this diversity of people and disciplinary
backgrounds emerged many compelling scientic,
environmental, political, economic, and social
questions. These discussions have been transcribed
and can be found on the King County website.
Consider how climate change will affect different
sectors. Breakout sessions of the conference
were focused on impacts to specic sectors (e.g.,
agriculture, coastal areas, sh and shellsh,
forestry, hydropower, water supply) with materials
identifying probable winners and losers of
climate change impacts. Sessions offered experts
in those areas and concerned stakeholders an
opportunity to come together to brainstorm
solutions, raise questions and esh out some
initial opportunities or constraints for action.
The papers and related discussion spotlighted
memorable illustrations of how certain sectors,
such as the Pacic Northwest ski industry, will be
more vulnerable to climate change impacts. In the
case of the ski industry, the winter preceding the
conference had seen a record low snowfall, which
had forced nine of 11 ski resorts to close in mid-
January (ordinarily the height of the ski season).
This lack of snow had forced some resorts cut
stafng by 80 percent.
Planning for and holding the conference had
many important benets. First, the conference
helped King County get organized on climate
change adaptation. The conference prompted
the county and region to assess climate change
effects on our natural and built environments
more systematically. The conference also began to
involve a broad range of county staff, including
capital improvement project managers, division
directors and supervisors, and engineers and
science staff, in thinking about the tradeoffs
and decisions related to the new topic of climate
change adaptation. Finally, the conference greatly
enhanced the interactions and long term working
relationships of County staff with their business,
nonprot, and academic counterparts for their
specic sectors. All of these benets fed into the
knowledge, ideas, enthusiasm, and collaborative
spirit that helped to launch the countys climate
change action team and preparedness team
in 2006, and later to develop the countys rst
comprehensive climate change action plan in
February 2007. The conference also contributed
to the States subsequent funding of a statewide
study of the economic impacts of climate change.
Media training events. Media training events for reporters and
editors can be used to increase media awareness of climate change,
local impacts, and governmental action. Speakers may include
climate scientists, other experts, and/or members of the community
government. Tis can be an opportunity to showcase what you are
doing about climate change, and for the media to talk directly with
regional experts and local ocials without the pressure of a deadline.
Events aimed at businesses and nongovernmental organizations.
Special events could include a large-scale leadership summit on climate
change or, if resource constraints are an issue, one-on-one relationship
building or smaller events such as workshops and seminars geared to the
business community and nongovernmental organizations. Tese events
can be used to solicit targeted feedback on preparedness options as well
as for general outreach.
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PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 78
8.3 Evaluate the Adaptive Capacity Associated with Systems in
Your Planning Areas
Adaptive capacity describes the ability of built, natural and human systems associated with a
given planning area to accommodate changes in climate with minimum disruption or minimum
additional cost.
Evaluating adaptive capacity is the second step in the
vulnerability assessment of a planning area. As a general rule,
systems that have high adaptive capacity are better able to
deal with climate change impacts.
To develop your own adaptive capacity table, consider the
projected climate change impacts that will aect systems in
your established planning areas. In creating this table, you
should be guided by the question: To what extent are the systems associated with this planning
area able to accommodate changes in climate at minimum disruption or cost?
In conducting your adaptive capacity analysis, keep these considerations in mind:
Are the systems associated with this planning area already able
to accommodate changes in climate? Examples of systems that are
exible to change include: animal or plant communities that are
able to move easily or modify their behavior in response to external
changes; and infrastructure that is designed to accommodate a range of
future climate conditions, such as a water supply system that has been
expanded with reclaimed water.
Conversely, are there barriers to a systems ability to accommodate
changes in climate? Many factors can limit a systems ability to
accommodate changes in climate. Examples include cases in which:
A legal or regulatory system requires that plans, policies, regulations, and
design standards be based on historic climate conditions, or sets other
limits that constrain responses to climate change impacts. For example,
the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is required
to use historic streamow data to determine the probability of a 100-
year ood event when setting 100-year ood zone boundaries in ood
plains. Te implicit assumption in this type of planning is that historic
streamow provides a good benchmark for future ood risk, when in
reality climate change is likely to increase the ood risk in the future.
Te number of competing uses for a system is high. Flexibility in how
a system is managed can often be limited by the needs of other
competing uses for the system. Te U.S. Pacic Northwests Columbia
River system, for example, is managed simultaneously for ood
control, hydropower, irrigation supply, protection of endangered
species, water quality, navigation, and recreation uses. Changing
operations or regulations to compensate for the impacts of climate
change to one use, hydropower production, may be limited by
the needs of other uses, such as maintaining ows for protection
of Snake River spring and summer run Chinook salmon.
2. Planning
Area
3. Current
and Expected
Stresses to
Systems in
This
Planning
Area
7. Projected
Climate Change
Impacts to
Systems in This
Planning Area
RISK ANALYSIS
13. Consequence
of Impact (high,
medium, low)
14. Probability
of Impact
(high, medium,
low, unknown)
15 . Estimated
Risk to Systems
in This Planning
Area (high,
medium, low)
Water
supply
More
summer
drought
More drought,
summer water
stress likely due
to lower winter
snowpack and
warmer, drier
summers. Popu-
lation growth
will compound
this problem.
High threat to
public safety, loss in
consumer con-
dence, lost revenue.
Affects entire
customer base.
High already
a concern
and warmer,
drier condi-
tions expected.
High
Stormwater
manage-
ment
Combined
sewer over-
ows (CSOs)
More localized
ooding, water
quality prob-
lems possible if
precipitation be-
comes more in-
tense, frequent.
Medium contrib-
utes to water qual-
ity degradation, po-
tential health, and
ecosystem impacts.
Affects combined
sanitary/storm sewer
piping in about
30% of the city.
Unknown at
the regional
level, but issue is
already a major
management
concern and
more intense
precipita-
tion observed
since 1973.
Medium
Road
operations
and main-
tenance
Pavement
buckling
on asphalt
roads dur-
ing extreme
heat events
More required
asphalt main-
tenance likely.
Medium potential
implications for
public safety, higher
road maintenance
costs, travel restric-
tions for heavy
loads. Affects about
55% of the citys
medium and high
volume roadways.
High warmer
summer temper-
atures expected.
Medium-high
Table 9.1 Qualitative risk assessment for systems associated with the sample planning areas of water
supply, stormwater management, and road operations and maintenance. This table provides an example
of a qualitative risk assessment for systems associated with the sample planning areas of water supply,
stormwater management, and road operations and maintenance.
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 90
9.2 Establish Your List of Priority Planning Areas
After conducting your vulnerability and risk assessments for systems in your planning areas,
you are now ready to identify your priority planning areas or planning areas of particular
importance to your community or government which are vulnerable to climate change impacts.
From this point forward, your climate change preparedness eorts should focus on priority
planning areas.
As public decision-makers, you may already be generating
ideas for how to reduce the climate change vulnerabilities and
risks you have identied, and you may even be embedding
cost-benet evaluations in your thinking. However, at this
stage of problem denition, we encourage you to refrain
from formally proposing or prioritizing your possible actions
yet, and simply focus on ranking the problems you face in
the form of a list of priority planning areas. In Chapter 10,
we will provide more specic guidance on how to evaluate costs and benets of individual
preparedness actions in light of the other priorities of your government.
To identify your priority planning areas, group the results of your vulnerability assessment
(Table 8.4) and your risk assessment into one of the following general categories of systems: high
risk/high vulnerability, high risk/low vulnerability, low risk/high vulnerability, and low risk/low
vulnerability. As illustrated in the vulnerability-risk matrix in Figure 9.1 you will want to make
planning areas that have high-risk and high-vulnerability systems a priority.
How to prioritize planning areas that are not high-risk and high-vulnerability is up to your team.
Tis decision will likely depend on a mix of criteria not explicitly captured in the vulnerability
and risk assessment process, including considerations such as values, economic drivers, and other
factors unique to a given community. Examples include:
Existing community government priorities. For example, your
administration may already be committed to reducing the risk of forest
res in adjoining forest lands. Tis eort may make preparedness
planning in forest resources a higher priority over other planning areas.
Unique planning or funding opportunities. Examples of unique
opportunities include: one-time-only state grants for addressing
coastal zoning planning, and plans to make signicant upgrades to
the communitys stormwater collection system. Tese windows of
opportunity may inuence the decision to prioritize a planning area
that would not otherwise have been chosen.
As illustrations, some of King Countys climate change priority planning areas are: public
health and emergency preparedness, water supply and streamow management, coastal hazards
management, and ood hazard management.
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PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 102
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A GUIDEBOOK FOR LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND STATE GOVERNMENTS 105
10.4 Select and Prioritize Preparedness Actions
As Table 10.1 indicates, there are a number of possible preparedness actions to take for managing
climate change impacts. Given a constant reality of competition for nancial and human
resources, how do you know which actions to choose for your preparedness plan, and in what
sequence to implement them?
Te general criteria described here can help guide your selection and prioritization of the specic
preparedness actions you will use (adapted from Willows and Connell 2003, Adger et al. 2005,
Smith 1997). Note that actions will not and do not need to meet all of the listed criteria. Te
more criteria that are met, however, the more likely the action will help reduce your vulnerability
to climate change.
As you evaluate the initial list of actions for selection, sort your choices into groups as follows:
Tier 1 actions are those that can and will be implemented in this
planning process;
Tier 2 actions are those that could be implemented now or in the
future but require additional information, resources, or authorities
before implementing. Note that you may want to begin exploring these
additional information, resource, and authority needs as part of your
current planning eort;
Tier 3 actions are those that are not suitable candidates at this time.
Document why certain preparedness actions were or were not selected for the current planning
eort. Reasons for ranking Tier 2 and 3 actions may change over time, making some of the
Tier 2 and 3 actions more relevant in the next update of the preparedness plan.
Key Criteria
Will the actions meet your preparedness goals? A key consideration
when selecting and prioritizing actions for preparedness planning is
whether the action will meet the overall preparedness goals chosen for
your planning eort, and in turn your guiding principles for a climate
resilient community.
Do the benets of the action exceed the costs? In general, the benets
gained from an action should exceed the costs of implementing the
action. Tis includes economic as well as non-economic costs and
benets, which can be dicult to quantify. Te benet-cost calculation
will be aected by many criteria, including your planning time horizon,
the lifespan of the decision, and the frequency of specic climate
change impacts (e.g., how often a particular ood threshold may be
crossed). Consider using your benet-cost analysis to help identify
the no regrets, low regrets, or win-win scenarios as described
in Section 11.2, especially in cases where there is greater uncertainty.
Note also that the benet-cost criteria will also inuence specic
choices associated with certain actions (e.g., the cost of enlarging your
stormwater collection system by 5% versus 15%).
IMPLEMENTATION
TOOLS are the
authorities and/or
avenues over which
your government has
control or inuence in
policy, planning and
infrastructure.
Box 11.1 Common Implementation Tools for Climate Change Preparedness Actions
Here are a few conventional tools that you may
need when implementing your climate change
preparedness actions:
Zoning rules and regulations
Taxation (including tax incentives)
Building codes/design standards
Utility rates/fee setting
Public safety rules and regulations
Issuance of bonds
A MEASURE OF RESILIENCE
is a quantitative or qualitative
judgment that you develop and
track over time to determine how
well a preparedness action meets
the preparedness goals you have set
in a given priority planning area.
A GUIDEBOOK FOR LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND STATE GOVERNMENTS 115
surveys of the number of media stories about climate change impacts in
your region;
qualitatively, whether public ocials understand 1) how climate
change impacts relate to major decisions in your priority planning areas
and 2) how those decisions could reduce or increase climate change
vulnerabilities or risks.
2. Have you increased technical capacity in your government and
community to prepare for climate change impacts in your priority
planning areas? Is this technical capacity being used eectively to
evaluate vulnerability and risk in your priority planning areas? (Guiding
Principle #2: Increase your technical capacity to prepare for climate change
impacts.)
Potential ways to measure technical capacity to prepare for climate change impacts in
your priority planning areas:
number of technical experts you have on sta who can advise you
on the latest research about climate change impacts in your priority
planning areas, and/or the existence of an ongoing relationship with
outside climate science advisors;
the existence and regular use of ongoing forums for sharing the latest
information on climate change in your priority planning areas with
internal and external stakeholders, including government employees,
the business community, and the general public.
3. Is climate information being considered in decisions in your priority
planning areas? Is there a formal mechanism in place that mainstreams
or otherwise facilitates climate change preparedness in your priority
planning areas? (Guiding Principle #3: Mainstream information about
climate change vulnerabilities, risks, and preparedness into planning, policy,
and investment.)
Potential ways to measure the mainstreaming of climate change information and
preparedness in your priority planning areas (adapted from Ligeti et al. 2007):
the number of plans or other governing documents in your priority
planning areas in which climate change is addressed qualitatively or
quantitatively;
existence and thoroughness of guidelines on how to integrate new
or updated information on climate change vulnerability, risk and
preparedness into decision making;
existence and number of dedicated sta to help facilitate preparedness
actions across departments and external stakeholders (or the amount
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D.5 Regional Resources on Climate: NOAAs Regional Integrated
Sciences and Assessment Teams
Te Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, funded by the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Climate Program Oce, was established in the mid-
1990s to improve the link between climate sciences and society. Te RISA program supports
research and stakeholder interaction aimed at improving our understanding of how climate
aects various regions of the United States, and facilitating the use of climate information in
decision making at the regional and local level.
RISA research team members are primarily based at universities though some of the team
members are based at government research facilities, non-prot organizations, or private sector
entities. Currently funded RISA teams are shown in Figure D.5.1. Tese teams are responsible
for monitoring and analyzing climate data and applying, providing, and interpreting climate
information for resource managers and policymakers in the U.S. RISAs can be a good resource
for regionally-specic information about climate change and regional climate change impacts.
Depending on the region, the research focuses on the sheries, water, wildre, agriculture, public
health, and coastal restoration sectors. Current RISA team locations and the regions and sectors
they currently study are listed in Table D.5.1.
Te RISA program may expand in the future into regions not currently covered as funding and
opportunities become available. Please check with the Federal Registry to see current funding
opportunities under the RISA program. RISA expansion would require the support of NOAA
leadership and Congress. More information about RISA can be found on the web:
http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/.
A GUIDEBOOK FOR LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND STATE GOVERNMENTS 171
Figure D.5.1 Currently Funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) Teams
Figure adapted from illustration by the Climate Program Office, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Used with permission.
Alaska Center for
Climate Assessment
and Policy (ACCAP)
Southeast
Climate
Consortium
(SECC)
Western
Water
Assessment
(WWA)
Carolinas
Integrated
Sciences and
Assessments
(CISA)
Climate Assessment
for the Southwest
(CLIMAS)
Pacific
RISA
Climate
Impacts
Group
(CIG)
California
Applications
Program
(CAP)
PREPARING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 172
RISA States Covered URL Areas of Research
Alaska Center
for Climate
Assessment
and Policy
Alaska http://www.uaf.edu/accap/ Water resource
management,
transportation
California
Applications
Program
California http://meteora.
ucsd.edu/cap/
Water resource
management, forest res,
snowpack, human health
Carolinas
Integrated
Sciences and
Assessments
North and
South Carolina
http://www.
zebra-baker.com/CISA
Water resource
management, forestry,
coastal impacts
Climate
Assessment for
the Southwest
Arizona, New
Mexico
http://www.ispe.
arizona.edu/climas/
Water resource
management, forestry,
forest res, snowpack,
human health, agriculture
Climate Impacts
Group
Washington,
Oregon, Idaho
http://www.cses.
washington.edu/cig/
Water resource
management, forestry,
snowpack, sh,
coastal impacts
Pacic RISA Hawaii, Marshall
Islands, Northern
Mariana
Islands, Guam,
Federated States
of Micronesia,
American Samoa
http://research.
eastwestcenter.
org/climate/risa/
Water resources
management,
coastal impacts
Southeast
Climate
Consortium
Florida, Georgia,
Alabama
http://secc.coaps.fsu.
edu/members/coaps.htm
Agriculture, forestry, water
resource management
Western Water
Assessment
Colorado, Utah,
Wyoming
http://wwa.colorado.edu Water resource
management,
agriculture, snowpack
Table D.5.1 Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program Teams
If you are a local, regional, or state decision-maker, this
guidebook will answer your questions about preparing for
climate change:
How do you scope out the problems of climate change across
sectors of your community?
How do you raise and maintain support to prepare for
climate change?
Whom should you include on a climate change
preparedness team?
Which of your planning areas are relevant to climate
change impacts?
How do you evaluate your climate sensitivity and adaptive
capacity (i.e., conduct a climate change vulnerability
assessment)? How do you conduct a climate change
risk assessment?
How do identify your climate change priority planning areas?
How do you establish a vision and guiding principles for a
climate resilient community?
How do you begin to develop climate change preparedness
goals and actions in these priority planning areas?
How do you develop a climate change preparedness plan?
How do you ensure that you have the right implementation
tools to take your preparedness actions?
How do you develop measures of resilience to track your
progress and update your plans over time, to ensure that your
efforts are really making your community more resilient to
climate change?