Climate change mitigation is action to decrease the intensity of radiative forcing in order to reduce the potential effects of global warming. In contrast, adaptation to global warming involves acting to tolerate the actual or expected effects of global warming (IPCC 2010). Most often, climate change mitigation scenarios involve reductions in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, either by reducing their sources or by increasing their sinks (Molina 2009). The UN defines mitigation in the context of climate change, as a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Examples include using fossil fuels more efficiently for industrial processes or electricity generation, switching to renewable energy (solar energy or wind power), improving the insulation of buildings, and expanding forests and other "sinks" to remove greater amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (GCCA 2012). The IAEA, an international organization using the UN flag and reporting to the UN, asserts that nuclear power belongs to the set of options available to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the power sector (IAEA 2008). Scientific consensus on global warming, together with the precautionary principle and the fear of abrupt climate change (Stephen 2004) is leading to increased effort to develop new technologies and sciences and carefully manage others in an attempt to mitigate global warming. Most means of mitigation appear effective only for preventing further warming, not at reversing existing warming (Huntingford 2009). The Stern Review identifies several ways of mitigating climate change. These include reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services, increasing efficiency gains, increasing use and development of low-carbon technologies, and reducing fossil fuel emissions (Stern 2007). The energy policy of the European Union has set a target of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 C (3.6 F) compared to preindustrial levels, of which 0.8 C has already taken place and another 0.50.7 C is already committed (Geden 2010).
1.2. Life Cycle Process Model of Climate Change Mitigation
By modelling and forecasting future perspectives and trends of climate change mitigation, it is possible to get ready to respond to the variation of micro, mezo and macrolevel variables. In this module climate change mostly is analyzed from social science and policy perspective. The life cycle process model of climate change mitigation suggested by this research is based on presumption that the efficiency of climate change mitigation depends on many micro, mezo and macrolevel variables. The presence of specific micro, mezo and macrolevel variable factors right away imposes objective limitations for efficient mitigation of climate change. Therefore, basing oneself on main worldwide development trends and best practices of climate change mitigation, it is possible to issue recommendations on the increase of efficiency of climate change mitigation in specific country. When rational variable micro, mezo and macrolevel factors determines for specific country have been realized, they should create better and more favourable conditions for efficient realization of climate change mitigations projects would be created. The research aim was to produce an analytical model of the rational climate change mitigation in specific country by undertaking a complex analysis of micro, meso and macroenvironment factors affecting it and to give recommendations on the increase of its competitive ability. The research was performed by studying the main worldwide development trends and best practice, taking into consideration specific countries history, development level, needs and traditions. Simulation was undertaken to provide insight into creating an effective environment for the climate change mitigation by choosing rational micro, meso and macrofactors. The most of stakeholders of climate change mitigation cannot correct or alter the micro, mezo and macrolevel variables, but they can go into the essence of their effect and take them into consideration when realizing various activities. Stakeholders, knowing the micro, mezo and macrolevel factors affecting the activities being realized, can organize their present and future activities more successfully. To design and achieve effective life cycle of a climate change mitigation a complex analysis of its stages as well as stakeholders, their aims and potentialities is needed. The effect of micro, meso and macro environmental factors should also be taken into account. Dozens of millions of climate change mitigation life cycle alternative versions can be obtained. The diversity of solutions available contributes to more accurate evaluation of economical, political, technological, emotional, climatic and other conditions, risk exposure, as well as making the project cheaper and better satisfying different stakeholders requirements. This also leads to better satisfaction of the needs of all parties involved in the project design and realization. Various stakeholders are involved in the life cycle of a climate change mitigation, trying to satisfy their needs and affecting its efficiency. The level of the efficiency of life cycle of a climate change mitigation depends on a number of variables, at three levels: micro, meso and macro level. A few examples regarding relations of climate change and micro (holiday travels), meso (Cherry blossom festivals), macro level factors and stakeholders are follows. Whilst much effort has been made to communicate to the public the importance of reducing carbon footprints in the home, one area where emissions are growing rapidly and little attempt has been made to increase consumer understanding of the impacts is holidays, particularly those involving air travel. Using focus group research, this paper explores tourists awareness of the impacts of travel on climate change, examines the extent to which climate change features in holiday travel decisions and identifies some of the barriers to the adoption of less carbon-intensive tourism practices. The findings suggest that many tourists do not consider climate change when planning their holidays. The failure of tourists to engage with the climate change impact of holidays, combined with significant barriers to behavioural change, presents a considerable challenge in moving the tourism industry onto a sustainable emissions path. The findings are discussed in relation to theoretical perspectives from psychology and sociology (Hares 2010). Most global climate change models predict serious ecological and social problems. In Japan, biologists have found climate change is affecting species and ecosystems, including the earlier flowering time of cherry trees which are an important cultural symbol in Japan. Cherry blossom festivals are also important to local economies. This study explored the perceptions of Japanese residents regarding climate change impacts on culturally significant events such as flower timing of cherry trees. Sakurai et al. (2011) conducted interviews of stakeholders of three cherry blossom festivals, including sixteen organizers of festivals and 26 managers of festival-dependent businesses, to understand their awareness, attitudes and behaviors toward global climate change and impacts on cherry blossom festivals. Most organizers of the festival in Kakunodate were concerned about global warming and its impact on cherry blossom times while organizers of festivals in Nakano and Komoro felt it was unimportant if flower timing affected the festival schedule. Most (92%) managers of festival-dependent businesses mentioned that global warming is occurring and affecting the flower timing of cherry trees, but there were diverse perceptions of global warming impacts on their business. Managers more dependent on income from cherry blossom festivals indicated greater concern for the effects of climate change (Sakurai et al. 2011). Citizens support for policies that aim to curb carbon emissions and energy use is often seen as informed by their values, attitudes and perceptions of the environmental problem in question. Fischer et al. (2011) argue that we also need to understand how people conceptualise policies and the governance approaches underpinning them to be able to judge the likely acceptance of policy change. Fischer et al. (2011) draw on qualitative interviews (n = 202) from five European countries to explore citizens views on governance approaches to stimulate behavioural change in the field of resource use, including regulations, price changes, collective action, technological change and education. Fischer et al. (2011) found that many of our interviewees referred to generalised characteristics of humankind and contemporary society to back up their arguments for or against specific governance approaches. In particular, many interviewees concurred that people in general were so self-centred, driven by habit and money- and consumption-oriented that only strict regulations, drastic price changes and technological innovation could possibly achieve widespread behavioural change. As a consequence, such folk psychologies can have substantial impact not only on public acceptance, but also on the success of policy measures that aim to reduce citizens resource use (Fischer et al. 2011). Climate change has been identified as potentially the biggest health threat of the 21st century. Canada in general has a well developed public health system and low burden of health which will moderate vulnerability. However, there is significant heterogeneity in health outcomes, and health inequality is particularly pronounced among Aboriginal Canadians. Intervention is needed to prevent, prepare for, and manage climate change effects on Aboriginal health but is constrained by a limited understanding of vulnerability and its determinants. Despite limited research on climate change and Aboriginal health, however, there is a well established literature on Aboriginal health outcomes, determinants, and trends in Canada; characteristics that will determine vulnerability to climate change. In this paper Ford et al. (2010) systematically review this literature, using a vulnerability framework to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change. Determinants identified include: poverty, technological capacity constraints, socio-political values and inequality, institutional capacity challenges, and information deficit. The magnitude and nature of these determinants will be distributed unevenly within and between Aboriginal populations necessitating place-based and regional level studies to examine how these broad factors will affect vulnerability at lower levels. The study also supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level, to plan for climate change. Ultimately, however, efforts to reduce the vulnerability of Aboriginal Canadians to climate change and intervene to prevent, reduce, and manage climate-sensitive health outcomes, will fail unless the broader determinants of socio- economic and health inequality are addressed (Ford et al. 2010). In the U.S., public support for federal, state and local efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) continues to be a crucial element of the political viability of these proposals. Shwom et al. (2010) present a detailed analysis of the reasons given by the general public of Michigan and Virginia for supporting or rejecting a number of policies that could be implemented to meet GHG reductions. The data allow us to analyze the relationships between reasons provided by respondents, social psychological and demographic characteristics, and policy support. This analysis can provide policymakers pragmatic guidance in (1) developing tactics to engage the public that build on current concerns about climate change policies and (2) crafting and communicating policies that garner support from various segments of the public. This analysis also raises theoretical questions regarding the relationship between public discourse on environmental issues and the formation of public policy support. Shwom et al. (2010) suggest that future efforts to understand the U.S. dynamics of public support for climate change policies could benefit from understanding the public discursive and the reasoning processes that underlie public opinion formation (Shwom et al. 2010). Anti-coal and some investment policies are widely justified with reference to global warming. Political analysis suggests that these policies are supported by the reinforcing interests of three powerful lobbies: scientific institutions engaged in atmospheric research and earth observation, energy corporations harmed by low fossil fuel prices or supplying clean technologies, and numerous interlocking bureaucracies. Together they have succeeded in maintaining momentum in current climate negotiations (Boehmer-Christiansen 1997). The problem is how to define an efficient climate change mitigation life cycle when a lot of various stakeholders are involved, the alternative project versions come to hundreds million and the efficiency changes with the alterations in the environment conditions and the constituent parts of the process in question. Moreover, the realization of some objectives seems more rational from the economic perspective thought from the other qualitative perspectives they have various significance. Therefore, it is considered that the efficiency of a climate change mitigation life cycle depends on the rationality of its stages as well as on the ability to satisfy the needs of the stakeholders and the rational character of environment conditions. Formalized presentation of the research shows how changes in the environment and the extent to which the goals pursued by various stakeholders are satisfied cause corresponding changes in the value and utility degree of a climate change mitigation life cycle. With this in mind, it is possible to solve the problem of optimization concerning satisfaction of the needs at reasonable expenditures. This requires the analysis of climate change mitigation life cycle versions allowing to find an optimal combination of goals pursued and finances available. The research object is a climate change mitigation life cycle, stakeholders striving to attain their goals and micro, meso and macro environment making an integral whole. The Life Cycle Process Model of Climate Change Mitigation was developed with the goal of integrating different quantative and qualitative aspects of the process over the life of the climate change mitigation. This six-stage model is presented in brief heretofore (see Fig. 1.1):
Fig. 1.1. Climate change mitigation quantitative and qualitative analyses aspects
Stage I. Comparative description of the climate change mitigation basing oneself on main worldwide development trends and best practices (see Fig. 1.1): Determining a system of criteria characterizing the efficiency of a climate change mitigation by employing relevant literature and expert methods. Describing, per this system of criteria, the present state of the climate change mitigation in countries under consideration in conceptual (textual, graphical, numerical and such) and quantitative forms. Stage II. Comparison and contrast of the climate change mitigation in countries under consideration: Identifying the global development trends (general regularities) of the climate change mitigation. Identifying the differences in climate change mitigations in countries under consideration. Determining the pluses and minuses of these differences. Energetic, Environmental Legal/Regulatory Infrastructure Aspects of climate change quantitative and qualitative analyses Psychological Educational Environmental Quality of life Emotional Technological, Technical
Pollution, Health Aesthetic, Comfort
Religion Social, Cultural Security, Independence Ethical, Attitudes Political, Economical
Determining the best practice for the climate change mitigation in countries under consideration as per actual conditions. Estimating the deviation between the knowledge stakeholders have of worldwide best practices and their practice-in-use. Stage III. Development of certain general recommendations on how to improve the knowledge levels of stakeholders. Stage IV. Submission of certain recommendations to stakeholders including several particular alternatives for each general recommendation proposed. Stage V. A multiple criteria analysis of the composite parts of a climate change mitigation and selection of the most efficient life cycle for the project henceforth interlinking the received compatible and rational composite parts of a climate change mitigation into a full climate change mitigation project. Stage VI. Transformational learning and the redesign of mental and practical behavior. A partial description of some stages (analysis of qualitative aspects (Section 3), the cost of climate change (Section 4), impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment and a Model for a Complex Analysis of a Passive House Life Cycle (Section 5)) follows to illustrate the above-presented Model.
1.3. Analysis of Qualitative Aspects
The Life Cycle Process Model of Climate Change Mitigation analyses was developed with the goal of integrating the environmental, energetic, political, economical, legal/regulatory, infrastructural, technical, technological, pollution, health, quality of life, social, cultural, ethical, psychological, emotional, religious, ethnic and other aspects of the process over the life of the climate change mitigation. This six-stage model is presented in brief heretofore (see Fig. 1.1). Description of some above factors are follow.
1.3.1. Climate Mobility Social and Civil Conflicts
Climate change can increase societies propensity to conflict by changes in socio-structural conditions (e.g., resource scarcity, migration). Fritsche et al. (2012) propose an additional, subtle, and general effect of climate change threat via increases in authoritarian attitudes. Three studies in Germany and the UK support this suggestion. Reminding participants of the adverse consequences climate change may have for their country increased the derogation of societal groups that may threaten the collective (e.g., criminals) as well as general authoritarian attitudes. Salient climate change threats also led to system justification and approval of system supporting groups (e.g., judges) in those people who were highly identified with their nation. Fritsche et al. (2012) discuss the implications of these findings for the explanation of authoritarian attitudes and the question of how societies may cope with the subtle social psychological effects of climate change (Fritsche et al. 2012). Climate change is expected to bring about major change in freshwater availability, the productive capacity of soils, and in patterns of human settlement. However, considerable uncertainties exist with regard to the extent and geographical distribution of these changes. Predicting scenarios for how climate-related environmental change may influence human societies and political systems necessarily involves an even higher degree of uncertainty. The direst predictions about the impacts of global warming warn about greatly increased risks of violent conflict over increasingly scarce resources such as freshwater and arable land. Raleigh and Urdal (2007) argue that our best guess about the future has to be based on our knowledge about the relationship between demography, environment and violent conflict in the past. Previous rigorous studies in the field have mostly focused on national-level aggregates. Raleigh and Urdal (2007) represents a new approach to assess the impact of environment on internal armed conflict by using georeferenced (GIS) data and small geographical, rather than political, units of analysis. It addresses some of the most important factors assumed to be strongly influenced by global warming: land degradation, freshwater availability, and population density and change. While population growth and density are associated with increased risks, the effects of land degradation and water scarcity are weak, negligible or insignificant. The results indicate that the effects of political and economic factors far outweigh those between local level demographic/environmental factors and conflict (Raleigh and Urdal 2007). Allouche (2011) looks at the interrelationship between water and food security. More specifically, Allouche (2011) examines the resilience and sustainability of water and food systems to shocks and stresses linked to different levels and intensity of conflict, global trade and climate change. Allouche (2011) makes four points: (1) that resource scarcity as a driver of conflict is inconclusive especially at regional and national levels (2) most insecurities surrounding water and food are explained by political power, social and gender relations; (3) global trade has enabled national food and water security, but that is now threatened by increasing food prices, food sovereignty movements and land grabbing (4) and that water and food security will face major challenges under conditions of climate change (Allouche 2011). The conventional discourse relating climate change to conflict focuses on long term trends in temperature and precipitation that define ecosystems and their subsequent impact on access to renewable resources. Because these changes occur over long time periods they may not capture the proximate factors that trigger conflict. Hendrix and Glaser (2007) estimate the impact of both long term trends in climate and short term climatic triggers on civil conflict onset in Sub-Saharan Africa. Hendrix and Glaser (2007) find that both operationalizations have a significant impact. Climates more suitable for Eurasian agriculture are associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict, while freshwater resources per capita are positively associated with the likelihood of conflict. Moreover, positive changes in rainfall are associated with a decreased likelihood of conflict in the following year. Hendrix and Glaser (2007) also assess the outlook for the future by analyzing simulated changes in precipitation means and variability over the period 20002099. Hendrix and Glaser (2007) find few statistically significant, positive trends in our measure of interannual variability, suggesting that it is unlikely to be affected dramatically by expected changes in climate (Hendrix and Glaser 2007). In climate change discourse, climate mobility is often characterised as the production of refugees, with a tendency to discount long histories of ordinary mobility among affected populations. The case of Tuvalu in the Pacific juxtaposes migration as everyday practice with climate refugee narratives. This climate-exposed population is being problematically positioned to speak for an entire planet under threat. Tuvaluans are being used as the immediate evidence of displacement that the climate change crisis narrative seems to require. Those identified as imminent climate refugees are being held up like ventriloquists to present a particular (western) crisis of nature. Yet Tuvaluan conceptions of climate challenges and mobility practices show that more inclusive sets of concepts and tools are needed to equitably and effectively approach and characterise population mobility (Farbotko and Lazrus 2012).
1.3.2. Climate Change and Human Culture
If solar variability affects human culture it most likely does so by changing the climate in which the culture operates. Variations in the solar radiative input to the Earths atmosphere have often been suggested as a cause of such climate change on time scales from decades to tens of millennia. In the last 20 years there has been enormous progress in our knowledge of the many fields of research that impinge on this problem; the history of the solar output, the effect of solar variability on the Earths mean climate and its regional patterns, the history of the Earths climate and the history of mankind and human culture. This new knowledge encourages revisiting the question asked in the title of this talk. Several important historical events have been reliably related to climate change including the Little Ice Age in northern Europe and the collapse of the Classical Mayan civilization in the 9th century AD. In the first section of this paper we discus these historical events and review the evidence that they were caused by changes in the solar output. Perhaps the most important event in the history of mankind was the development of agricultural societies. This began to occur almost 12,000 years ago when the climate changed from the Pleistocene to the modern climate of the Holocene (Feynman 2007). Feynman (2007) discussed two examples of the effects that relatively small variations of climate have had on civilizations and their agriculture in the last 1000 years. In these cases evidence was given that the variations were part of a worldwide response pattern and that they were associated with the Sun. Here, Feynman (2007) describes the early development of agriculture and how long it took to make the transition from a hunter gatherer society to an agriculturally based society. Feynman (2007) emphasizes the role the climate stability may have played in the establishment of agriculture. Feynman (2007) reviews the Climate Proxy Records evidence that until the end of the Last Ice Age there was always a rapidly varying climate to interfere with that transition. Feynman (2007) suggests that the sudden ceasing of those variations was the trigger that allowed agriculture to develop. The four well-known examples of independent agricultural societies, the Middle East, China, Meso-America, and the Andes-Amazon area, were developed in societies that were very distant from one another and showed no evidence of cultural exchange. In summary there is considerable evidence that climate variations in response to low frequency solar variations have had major effects on cultures during the last 1500 years. We also hypothesize that the large climate variations in the same frequency range may have had a role in inhibiting the development of agriculture during the Pleistocene and it was their marked decrease in amplitude that allowed agriculture to develop independently almost simultaneously in multiple regions of the world when the Holocene began at the end of the cold period called the Younger Dryas (Feynman 2007). Geel et al. (2004) described hypothesis regarding climate change and the expansion of the Scythian culture after 850 BC. In south-central Siberia archaeological evidence suggests an acceleration of cultural development and an increase in the density of nomadic populations around 850 BC. Geel et al. (2004) hypothesize a relationship with an abrupt climatic shift towards increased humidity caused by a decline of solar activity. Areas that initially may have been hostile semi-deserts changed into attractive steppe landscapes with a high biomass production and high carrying capacity. Newly available steppe areas could be invaded by herbivores, making them attractive for nomadic tribes. The central Asian horse-riding Scythian culture expanded, and an increased population density was a stimulus for westward migration towards southeastern Europe. The Palau archipelago is a sizeable and geologically diverse set of volcanic and coralline limestone islands in equatorial western Micronesia. Recent archeological fieldwork, pollen analyses, and radiocarbon assays have expanded our understanding of more than 3000 years of culture history in Palau, providing a potentially unique window on the relationship between climate, environment, human adaptation, and culture change in the tropical western Pacific. Masse et al. (2006) focus is on the period of AD 12001600, particularly as relates to the transition between the Medieval Warm Period and the onset of the Little Ice Age. This period encompasses the establishment of stonework villages throughout the archipelago, and ultimately their abandonment in the limestone islands. Paleoenvironmental and archeological data, including settlement pattern analyses, provide mixed but intriguing messages regarding the role of climate in Palauan culture change. Archeological deposits in Uchularois Cave contain domestic pig, Sus scrofa, large-eyed bream, Monotaxis grandoculis, parrotfish, Scarus sp., and the humped conch, Strombus gibberulus gibbosus, that together provide evidence of environmental degradation or overharvesting and the potential effects of climate change on culture Masse et al. (2006) Kennett and Kennett (2007) analyse the influence of Holocene marine transgression and climate change on cultural evolution in southern Mesopotamia. Kennett and Kennett (2007) review the impact of Holocene marine transgression and climate change and its influence on cultural evolution in the southern Mesopotamian region. It argues that the critical confluence of eustatic and climatic changes unique to this circumscribed region favored the emergence of highly centralized, urban- based states. The processes leading to the emergence of state-level societies in southern Mesopotamia are multivariate, but Kennett and Kennett (2007) indicate that these developments should be considered within the context of environmental change. It begins with a review on postglacial environmental change in southern Mesopotamia. Following this, it presents an account of state development in southern Mesopotamia. It suggests that in southern Mesopotamia the cultural changes leading to integrated state-level societies occurred during a 3000 yr period between the beginning of the Ubaid Period at 8000 cal yr BP and the end of the Uruk Period at about 5000 cal yr BP. This was a dynamic interval of human cultural evolution, a punctuated series of events, in a long history of human hunting and gathering and early agricultural economies. In this light, the study concludes by suggesting that state development in southern Mesopotamia resulted from human responses stimulated, in part, by a particular succession and confluence of environmental changes unique to this region during the Early and Middle Holocene. Tibetan culture and livelihoods depend on native plants for medicine, food, grazing, wood, as well as cash from market sales. The Medicine Mountains (part of the Hengduan Mountains) of the eastern Himalayas, with tremendous plant diversity derived from steep gradients of both elevation and precipitation, have traditionally been an important source of Tibetan medicinal plants. Salick et al. (2009) examine climate change in this area and vegetation patterns influenced by biogeography, precipitation and elevation (NMS and CCA ordinations of GLORIA plots). The Alpine environment has the highest plant diversity and most useful plants and is the most susceptible to climate change with impacts on traditional Tibetan culture and livelihoodsparticularly Tibetan medicine and herding (Salick et al. 2009). Kuruppu (2009) argues that fundamental to water management and adaptation planning is the integration of people's cultural values attached to the assets/resources they control and utilise in their efforts to adapt to various stresses on water resources. The results from integrating cultural resources into a Sustainable Livelihoods Framework indicate that people's capacity to diversify is constrained by cultural processes negotiated in their daily lives that reinforced and reproduced hardships. Material resources provided personal significance when they were spent on maintaining social identity, expressed in recent times through the church. Thus fewer resources were available for pursuing a diversification strategy. Furthermore, power structures in the church delimited benefits to the individual, depriving people of their freedom to exercise autonomous agency and achieve personal wellbeing. Kuruppu (2009) demonstrates the significance of religion to adaptation. Moreover, it highlights the need to consider the relational aspects of assets, in conditioning how people access and utilise assets in pursuing adaptation strategies (Kuruppu 2009).
1.3.3. Religion
Different religion leaders call on all people and nations to recognise the serious and potentially irreversible impacts of global warming caused by the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants, and by changes in forests, wetlands, grasslands, and other land uses. According to the New Scientist (2007), also religious leaders pray for cold weather to combat climate change. Leaders from world religions gather in Greenland to show unity on the problem of global warming and to pray for the planet (the New Scientist 2007). As example, we will present Vatican and Buddhism point of view regarding climate change. A Vatican-appointed panel of scientists has reported what climate change experts have been warning for years: the Earth is getting warmer, glaciers are melting, and urgent measures are necessary to stem the damage. The scientists called for urgent reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and reductions in methane and other pollutants that warm the air, and for improved observation of mountain glaciers to better track their changes. The Pontifical Academy of Sciences, a Vatican advisory panel appeal to all nations to develop and implement, without delay, effective and fair policies to reduce the causes and impacts of climate change on communities and ecosystems, including mountain glaciers and their watersheds, aware that we all live in the same home (Vatican-appointed 2011). Vatican (Vatican on climate 2011) call on action pales in comparison to the price the world will pay if we fail to act now: We appeal to all nations to develop and implement, without delay, effective and fair policies to reduce the causes and impacts of climate change on communities and ecosystems, including mountain glaciers and their watersheds, aware that we all live in the same home. By acting now, in the spirit of common but differentiated responsibility, we accept our duty to one another and to the stewardship of a planet blessed with the gift of life. We are committed to ensuring that all inhabitants of this planet receive their daily bread, fresh air to breathe and clean water to drink as we are aware that, if we want justice and peace, we must protect the habitat that sustains us. The believers among us ask God to grant us this wish. Buddhism is not a religion; it is a way of life. It teaches the moral and ethical conduct for the happiness of oneself and the welfare of the community. The Buddhist doctrines [analyze] human life and the intrinsic nature of things based on reasoning and rational thinking not based on an initial act of faith (Mendis 1993). Firstly, Buddhism proposed that beliefs, values and ethics have a strong influence upon the behavioral outcomes that are manifest as the driving forces behind environmental pressures. Although this perspective underplays the role of structural forces that constrain human behavior, the influence of beliefs and values can be seen to operate via their configuration of goals, wants, needs, intent and choices. Secondly, a more complete nexus with Buddhism requires an explicit shift in focus to human welfare as the key objective of both mainstream economic and policy prescriptions, and the Buddhist way of life (Daniels 2010a). Buddhism provides an explanation of the fundamental motives and driving forces that induce climate change. It does this by reference to the nature of the existing belief, value and ethical systems that set human goals and influence choices which, in turn, encourage behavior directed towards these goals. Even the initial tenets of Buddhism as laid out in the suttas of the Pali Canon demonstrate a clear link between human moral systems and impact upon the natural environment(Sandell 1987). Also Buddhism highlights the need to carefully examine the actual path and conditions leading to better well-being, satisfaction or contentment within society. The study of the source and extent of environmental pressure and impacts is incomplete without an explanation of how material outcomes affect human welfare. Of course, neo-classical based economic growth models have always assumed a simple and direct positive relationship between material accumulation, associated services, and utility or welfare. The fundamental questioning of this relationship is intrinsic in Buddhist economic approaches (Zadek 1993). The Second Noble Truth reveals the source of this persistent dissatisfaction or disappointment. It comes from clinging or attachment to external, worldly phenomena in the belief that they will bring sustained and consummate satisfaction or happiness (French 2003). These objects of our desire include not just material goods or assets and the services they provide but people and other animate beings as well as ideas, social and economic roles, success and status (Webster 2005). Desire for maximum consumption via material good accumulation, derived services, and control over people for self-satisfaction, drives economic and lifestyle choices and is the natural economic (if not the social) outcome of a belief system based on the principle that the external world is the ultimate source of happiness (Tideman 2001). Human institutions, technologies and infrastructure that originally developed to satisfy basic needs have grown to facilitate natural resource consumption for greed, excess and the relentless grasping for material satisfaction. The accumulation frenzy has required, and resulted in, prodigious natural resource extraction and global labor force exploitation powered largely by the capabilities endowed by fossil fuel energy. Extensive biophysical intervention associated with fossil carbon has led to the looming problems of marked climate change. Given the primacy of interdependence, it becomes critical to carefully examine the means and implications involved in the pursuit of gains in well-being. If the process involves high levels of intervention and disturbance from the initiating source (a characteristic of fossil fuel dependence), then the web of causeeffect relations between the three realms will have unintended negative consequences for the well-being of the instigators. This is apparent with the troubling climate change, infrastructural vulnerability, and political conflict that is now confronting the current carbon-based world economy. Such sensitive interdependence portends the inherent wisdom of the Buddhist advocacy of the Middle Way with its careful focus upon moderation and meeting true well-being needs with minimal and non-violent intervention (Daniels 2010a). Buddhism makes to explain the double whammy of the past 60 years of spectacular fossil fuel-based economic growth where happiness levels within nations do not seem to be increasing (the Easterlin Paradox), and yet resource use and degradation have reached unsustainable and possibly ecosphere catastrophe levels (Baucells and Sarin 2007, Daniels, 2007). The relentless drive for the economic extraction and transformation of nature for economic wealth has not had the anticipated positive impact on subjective well-being. Indeed, craving for material wealth has not only failed to significantly reduce suffering (increase well-being) but has increased environmental destruction and instability (Mendis 1993). Daniels (2010a) examines how central Buddhist world views and themes can contribute to effectively addressing climate change by looking deep within the ethical, economic and ecological nature of consumer market economies. A persistent theme of Daniels (2010a) approach is the structured analysis of climate change in terms of the drivers, pressures, and responses that stem from societal beliefs and world views about human actions and choices, and their links to human goals and well-being. Buddhist notions of interconnectedness, dependent origination, and mindful consumption and production can help explain and reshape human motives and actions for climate and other forms of environmental sustainability. The mode of analysis of Buddhism has had much in common with ecological economics with primary conceptual and methodological roles ascribed to ethics, the ecologization of society, social capital and sustainability, and ultimate means and ends via an extensive consideration of well-being and the goals of human endeavor (Daniels 2010a). The maintenance of climatic conditions that support biotic integrity and human life is a critical aspect of sustainable development. Serious instability in global economic and environmental spheres calls for an intensive search for new paradigms guiding human understanding, motivation and action. Daniels (2010) examines how central Buddhist world views and themes can contribute to effectively addressing climate change and other sustainability problems confronting consumer economies. Environmental, economic, ethical and cosmological dimensions of Buddhism are presented as a logical and practical basis for reducing the climate change pressures deriving from prevailing global modes of production and consumption. Daniels (2010) paper presents an analytical framework and philosophical base for understanding the causes and refining the goals behind human and societal endeavor. Buddhist notions of interconnectedness, dependent origination, and mindful consumption and production can help explain and reshape human motives and actions for climate and other forms of environmental sustainability (Daniels 2010). The evidence of impending and serious climate and other consequences of an expanding world economy based on fossil carbon energy continues to accumulate. Daniels (2010) examines the potential contribution of the world view and insights of Buddhism to this search. Daniels (2010) presents both a conceptual and practical case that Buddhism can help shape and move towards an alternative and effective paradigmatic basis for sustainable economies one capable of bringing about and maintaining genuine, high welfare levels across the world's societies. Based on the integration of two of the most influential environmental analysis tools of recent decades (the DPSIR model and IPAT equation), the framework was then broadened to facilitate ideas from the Buddhist world view by injecting two key missing aspects the interrelated role of (1) beliefs and values (on goals and behavior) and (2) the nature of well-being or human happiness. Daniels (2010) demonstrates how Buddhist and related world views can feed into appropriate and effective responses to the impending challenges of climate change. This is undertaken by systematically presenting a specific, if indicative, list of relevant strategies informed by the understanding of interconnectedness and other basic principles about the nature of reality and human well-being as proposed in Buddhism (Daniels 2010).
1.3.4. Ethics
The emotional and embodied practice of narrative ethics is offered as one possible response to the overemphasis on technical rationality within our society and its institutions. Willis (2012) argues that the development of practical wisdom (phronesis) is essential to addressing issues such as climate change, which are not simply technical problems but are fundamentally rooted in the human condition. Ecoethics is an emerging discipline that trains moral attention and critical reflection on the vastly expanded range of human productive and consumptive powers that are causing increasing and perhaps irreparable damage to many of Earths ecosystems and the human communities and nonhuman species who depend on those ecosystems well-being. Ecoethics ponders the significance of how the rapidly rising human population is so widely transforming natural ecosystems that increasing numbers of animal and plant species are being pushed via habitat destruction into endangerment or extinction. Likewise, ecoethics ponders the fate of both humanity and that of all other species as it confronts rising worries about anthropogenic or human-caused global warming or climate-change trends (French 2008). Climate change raises many questions with strong moral and ethical dimensions that are important to address in climate-policy formation and international negotiations. Particularly in the United States, the public discussion of these dimensions is strongly influenced by religious groups and leaders. Over the past few years, many religious groups have taken positions on climate change, highlighting its ethical dimensions. Wardekker (2009) aims to explore these ethical dimensions in the US public debate in relation to public support for climate policies. Wardekker (2009) analyzes in particular the Christian voices in the US public debate on climate change by typifying the various discourses. Three narratives emerge from this analysis: conservational stewardship (conserving the garden of God as it was created), developmental stewardship (turning the wilderness into a garden as it should become) and developmental preservation (God's creation is good and changing; progress and preservation should be combined). The different narratives address fundamental ethical questions, dealing with stewardship and social justice, and they provide proxies for public perception of climate change in the US. Policy strategies that pay careful attention to the effects of climate change and climate policy on the poor in developing nations and the US itself may find support among the US population. Religious framings of climate change resonate with the electorates of both progressive and conservative politicians and could serve as bridging devices for bipartisan climate-policy initiatives (Wardekker 2009).
1.3.5. Climate Change, Pollution and Health in Cities
Excess morbidity and mortality related to extremely hot weather and poor air quality are found in cities worldwide. This is a major public health concern for cities now and looking toward the future because the interactions of global climate change, urban heat islands, and air pollution are predicted to place increasing health burdens on cities. The proposed mitigation and adaptation strategies in cities climate risk management plans may produce health co-benefits by reducing emissions and cooling temperatures through changes in the built environment. There are challenges, however, to implementing the plans and the most widely documented beneficial policy to date is the adoption of heat warning and air quality alert systems to trigger emergency responses (Harlan et al. 2011). As the largest developing country, China has been changing rapidly over the last three decades and its economic expansion is largely driven by the use of fossil fuels, which leads to a dramatic increase in emissions of both ambient air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs). China is now facing the worst air pollution problem in the world, and is also the largest emitter of carbon dioxide. A number of epidemiological studies on air pollution and population health have been conducted in China, using time-series, case-crossover, cross-sectional, cohort, panel or intervention designs. The increased health risks observed among Chinese population are somewhat lower in magnitude, per amount of pollution, than the risks found in developed countries. However, the importance of these increased health risks is greater than that in North America or Europe, because the levels of air pollution in China are very high in general and Chinese population accounts for more than one fourth of the world's totals. Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that climate change has already affected human health directly and indirectly in China, including mortality from extreme weather events; changes in air and water quality; and changes in the ecology of infectious diseases. If China acts to reduce the combustion of fossil fuels and the resultant air pollution, it will reap not only the health benefits associated with improvement of air quality but also the reduced GHG emissions. Consideration of the health impact of air pollution and climate change can help the Chinese government move forward towards sustainable development with appropriate urgency (Kan, Chen and Tong. 2012). Urban centers in Latin American often face high levels of air pollution as a result of economic and industrial growth. Decisions with regard to industry, transportation, and development will affect air pollution and health both in the short term and in the far future through climate change. Bell et al. (2006) investigated the pollution health consequences of modest changes in fossil fuel use for three case study cities in Latin American: Mexico City, Mexico; Santiago, Chile; and So Paulo, Brazil. Annual levels of ozone and particulate matter were estimated from 2000 to 2020 for two emissions scenarios: (1) business-as-usual based on current emissions patterns and regulatory trends and (2) a control policy aimed at lowering air pollution emissions. The resulting air pollution levels were linked to health endpoints through concentrationresponse functions derived from epidemiological studies, using local studies where available. Results indicate that the air pollution control policy would have vast health benefits for each of the three cities, averting numerous adverse health outcomes including over 156,000 deaths, 4 million asthma attacks, 300,000 children's medical visits, and almost 48,000 cases of chronic bronchitis in the three cities over the 20-year period. The economic value of the avoided health impacts is roughly $21 to $165 billion (US). Sensitivity analysis shows that the control policy yields significant health and economic benefits even with relaxed assumptions with regard to population growth, pollutant concentrations for the control policy, concentrationresponse functions, and economic value of health outcomes. Bell et al. (2006) research demonstrates the health and economic burden from air pollution in Latin American urban centers and the magnitude of health benefits from control policies (Bell et al. 2006). The contribution of the road transportation sector to emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases is a growing concern in developing countries. Emission control measures implemented within this sector can have varying counteracting influences. In the city of Durban, South Africa, the growing dependence on privately-owned motor vehicles and increasing usage of roads for freight transport have all resulted in significant air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, an emissions inventory was developed for the road transport sector and was used as a basis to explore intervention opportunities that are likely to reduce simultaneously, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in this sector. It was found that reducing the vehicle kilometres travelled by privately-owned motor vehicles and improving the efficiency of road freight transport offered the greatest potential for achieving co-benefits (Thambiran and Diab 2011). Bollen et al. (2009) present the findings of a combined cost-benefit analysis of local air pollution and global climate change, two subjects that are usually studied separately. Yet these distinct environmental problems are closely related, since they are both driven by the nature of present energy production and consumption patterns. Bollen et al. (2009) study demonstrates the mutual relevance of, and interaction between, policies designed to address these two environmental challenges individually. Given the many dimensions air pollution control and climate change management have in common, it is surprising that they have only little been analyzed in combination so far. Bollen et al. (2009) attempt to cover at least part of the existing gap in the literature by assessing how costs and benefits of technologies and strategies that jointly tackle these two environmental problems can best be balanced. By using specific technological options that cut down local air pollution, e.g. related to particulate emissions, one may concurrently reduce CO2 emissions and thus contribute to diminishing global climate change. Inversely, some of the long- term climate change strategies simultaneously improve the quality of air in the short run. Bollen et al. (2009) extended the well-established MERGE model by including emissions of particulate matter, and show that integrated environmental policies generate net global welfare benefits. Bollen et al. (2009) also demonstrate that the discounted benefits of local air pollution reduction significantly outweigh those of global climate change mitigation, at least by a factor of 2, but in most cases of our sensitivity analysis msuch more. Still, Bollen et al. (2009) do not argue to only restrict energy policy today to what should be our first priority, local air pollution control, and wait with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, Bollen et al. (2009) propose to design policies that simultaneously address these issues, as their combination creates an additional climate change bonus. As such, climate change mitigation proves an ancillary benefit of air pollution reduction, rather than the other way around (Bollen et al. 2009).
1.3.6. Belief System with an Incorrect Theory of Happiness
Different religions leaders analysed relation of theory of happiness with climate change. As example, we will present Buddhism point of view. Much of human activity is directed by this craving and, in secular life, people seem to be effectively bound by thoughts and actions derived from a belief system with an incorrect theory of happiness (Ash 2007, Tideman 2001). From the Buddhist world view, a major constraint on better- functioning economies yielding sustainable happiness is ignorance about the Second Noble Truth leading to behavior that has negative consequences in accordance with the pervasive and marked co-dependence amongst all things. As per the 2nd Noble Truth, the lack of knowledge about the actual path to well-being leads to, in economic terms, a mismatch between actual or observed preferences, and true preferences. True preferences represent life choices that genuinely enhance satisfaction (Tomer 1996). This outcome is also consistent with the persistent overestimation of people's own expected satisfaction gains from increased income and consumption (projection bias) (Loewenstein et al., 2003). The prevailing belief within consumer market societies is that the primary directives of life activity should be directed towards pleasure and usefulness (and hence welfare gains) obtained from the accumulation and control of stable phenomena of the external world. In contrast, Buddhism predicts an eternal gap between (1) object-attachment desires and wants, and (2) actual fulfillment or satisfaction received from biophysical reality. If the belief in potential satisfaction from worldly phenomena dominates, socioeconomic systems form a treadmill that never delivers the anticipated results (Daniels 2010a). There are minimum human needs that must be met to avert physiological deprivation. Market economies in high-income nations have generally been very successful at achieving this. However, in the consumer culture that characterizes these economies, the desire to satisfy wants is constantly created and expanded has become a major motive of people's lives, thoughts and actions. The proliferation of desire and quest for material super-abundance permeates almost every aspect of global market societies (Bodhi 1987). The resulting system of craving reproduces itself with structures that have embedded the want satisfaction capability belief and is replete with actors who are addicted to an irrational process of striving for short-term satisfaction of dynamic and endless wants. Consumption becomes an end in itself. A substantial part of the global market economy is predicated upon and supported by stimulating such desire and maintaining the want- satisfaction gap (Daniels 2010a).
1.3.7. Easterlin Paradox and Happiness Economics
The Easterlin Paradox is a key concept in happiness economics. It is named for economist and USC Professor Richard Easterlin who discussed the factors contributing to happiness in the 1974 paper "Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot? Some Empirical Evidence." Easterlin found that within a given country people with higher incomes are more likely to report being happy. However, in international comparisons, the average reported level of happiness does not vary much with national income per person, at least for countries with income sufficient to meet basic needs. Similarly, although income per person rose steadily in the United States between 1946 and 1970, average reported happiness showed no long-term trend and declined between 1960 and 1970. This concept was later revived by Andrew Oswald of the University of Warwick in 1997, driving media interest in the topic. Recent research has utilised many different forms of measuring happiness, including biological measures, showing similar patterns of results. This goes some way to answering the problems of self-rated happiness. The implication for government policy is that once basic needs are met, policy should focus not on economic growth or GDP, but rather on increasing life satisfaction or Gross national happiness (Wiki). Despite an unprecedented rate of economic growth, Chinas life satisfaction over the last two decades has largely followed the trajectory seen in the central and eastern European transition countriesa decline followed by a recovery, with no change or a declining trend over the period as a whole. There is no evidence of a marked increase in life satisfaction in China of the magnitude that might have been expected based on the fourfold increase in the level of per capita consumption during that period. In its transition, China has shifted from one of the most egalitarian countries in terms of distribution of life satisfaction to one of the least egalitarian. Life satisfaction has declined markedly in the lowest-income and least-educated segments of the population, while rising somewhat in the upper SES stratum (Easterlin 2012). The time series data on SWB underlying these conclusions are derived from six surveys conducted by five different survey organizations, and together they show a remarkably consistent pattern. The similarity of Chinas experience to that of the European transition countries and particularly its role model under communism, the Soviet Union, lends credence to these results. Chinas pattern is also consistent with that seen in other high-export countries that are subject to the vicissitudes of the world economy. It is pertinent to note that Chinas apparently nil trend is reminiscent of that seen in Japan after its takeoff from a quite low initial level of GDP per capita in the late 1950s (Easterlin 2010a,b). Moreover, the life satisfaction pattern in China fits with the historical context. The factors shaping life satisfaction in China appear to be essentially the same as those in the European transition countries the emergence and rise of substantial unemployment, dissolution of the social safety net, and growing income inequality. The failure of Chinas life satisfaction to increase despite its differing output experiencea rapid increase versus the collapse and recovery of output in the European countriessuggests that employment and the social safety net are critically important factors in determining life satisfaction. One may reasonably ask how it is possible for life satisfaction not to improve in the face of such a marked advance in per capita GDP from a very low initial level? In answer, it is pertinent to note the growing evidence of the importance of relative income comparisons and rising material aspirations in China, which tend to negate the effect of rising income. These findings are consistent with the view common in the happiness literature that the growth in aspirations induced by rising income undercuts the increase in life satisfaction related to rising income itself (Easterlin 2012). Moreover, there is more to life satisfaction than material goods. Other factors include home life and the need for a secure job to support it, health, friends and relatives, and the like. It is possible that the lack of a marked uptrend in overall life satisfaction in China might reflect an adverse impact on life satisfaction of changes in such factors as these, as has been true of the transition experience of East Germany, for which data on such circumstances are available (Easterlin 2010b). In policy circles, subjective well-being is receiving increasing attention as a complement or alternative to GDP per capita as a measure of well-being (Stiglitz, Sen and Fitoussi 2008). There could hardly be a more dramatic example than China for testing the comparative significance of the two measures. The GDP measure registers the spectacular average improvement in material living conditions, whereas the measure of life satisfaction demonstrates that among ordinary people, especially the less-educated and lower income segments of the population, life satisfaction has declined noticeably as material aspirations have soared and concerns have arisen about such critical matters as finding and holding a job, securing reliable and affordable health care, and providing for children and the elderly. Clearly, life satisfaction is the more comprehensive and meaningful indicator of peoples life circumstances and well-being. It would be a mistake to conclude from the life satisfaction experience of China, and the transition countries more generally, that a return to socialism and the gross inefficiencies of central planning would be beneficial. However, our data suggest an important policy lesson, that jobs and job and income security, together with a social safety net, are of critical importance to life satisfaction. In the last few years, the government of China has begun serious efforts to repair the social safety net (Vodopivec and Tong 2008, Barnett and Chalk, 2010). These efforts are an encouraging portent for the future life satisfaction of the Chinese population, particularly for the least advantaged segments.
1.4. The Cost of Climate Change
1.4.1. The Global Warming Price
The heated argument about economic costs, however, barely touched one vitally important issue: the costs of NOT taking action on climate. What if last summers Russian heat wave and drought, which destroyed one third of the countrys wheat crop, or the catastrophic floods in Pakistan and China, or category 5 hurricanes like Katrina are just glimpses of future havoc from warming left unchecked? Certain events would have been extremely unlikely to have occurred without global warming, and that includes the Russian heat wave and wild fires, and the Pakistan, Chinese, and Indian floods (Carey 2011). Droughts, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes have already caused multibillion-dollar losses, and these extreme weather events will likely become more frequent and more devastating as the climate continues to change. Tourism, agriculture, and other weather-dependent industries will be hit especially hard, but no one will be exempt. Household budgets, as well as business balance sheets, will feel the impact of higher energy and water costs. Ruth, Coelho and Karetnikov (2007) estimates what the United States will pay as a result of four of the most serious impacts of global warming in a business-as-usual scenariothat is, if we do not take steps to push back against climate change (Ruth, Coelho and Karetnikov 2007): - Hurricane damages: $422 billion in economic losses caused by the increasing intensity of Atlantic and Gulf Coast storms. In the business-as-usual climate future, higher sea-surface temperatures result in stronger and more damaging hurricanes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Even with storms of the same intensity, future hurricanes will cause more damage as higher sea levels exacerbate storm surges, flooding, and erosion. In recent years, hurricane damages have averaged $12 billion and more than 120 deaths per year. With business-as- usual emissions, average annual hurricane damages in 2100 will have grown by $422 billion and an astounding 760 deaths just from climate change impacts. - Real estate losses: $360 billion in damaged or destroyed residential real estate as a result of rising sea levels. Our business-as-usual scenario forecasts 23 inches of sea-level rise by 2050 and 45 inches by 2100. If nothing is done to hold back the waves, rising sea levels will inundate low-lying coastal properties. Even those properties that remain above water will be more likely to sustain storm damage, as encroachment of the sea allows storm surges to reach inland areas that were not previously affected. By 2100, U.S. residential real estate losses will be $360 billion per year. - Energy costs: $141 billion in increasing energy costs as a result of the rising demand for energy. As temperatures rise, higher demand for airconditioning and refrigeration across the country will increase energy costs, and many households and businesses, especially in the North, that currently dont have air conditioners will purchase them. Only a fraction of these increased costs will be offset by reduced demand for heat in Northern states.The highest net energy costsafter taking into consideration savings from lower heating billswill fall on Southeast and Southwest states. Total costs will add up to more than $200 billion for extra electricity and new air conditioners, compared with almost $60 billion in reduced heating costs. The net result is that energy sector costs will be $141 billion higher in 2100 due to global warming. - Water costs: $950 billion to provide water to the driest and most water-stressed parts of the United States as climate change exacerbates drought conditions and disrupts existing patterns of water supply. The business-as-usual case forecasts less rainfall in much of the United Statesor, in some states, less rain at the times of year when it is needed most. By 2100, providing the water we need throughout the country will cost an estimated $950 billion more per year as a result of climate change. Drought conditions, already a problem in Western states and in the Southeast, will become more frequent and more severe. The Global Warming Price Tag in Four Impact Areas (2025 through 2100) is presented in Table 1.1.
Table 1.1. The Global Warming Price Tag in Four Impact Areas, 2025 through 2100 (Ackerman and Stanton 2008)
As example, we shortly analyse the global warming price tag in two impact areas: real estate, water supply and the agriculture industry on basis of United States experience.
1.4.2. Real Estate Losses as a Result of Sea Level Rise
The effects of climate change will have severe consequences for low-lying U.S. coastal real estate. If nothing is done to hold back rising waters, sea-level rise will simply cause many properties in low-lying coastal areas to be inundated. Even those properties that remain above water will be more likely to sustain storm damage, as encroachment of the sea allows storm surges to reach inland areas that were not previously affected. More intense hurricanes, in addition to sea-level rise, will increase the likelihood of both flood and wind damage to properties throughout the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. To estimate the value of real estate losses from sea-level rise, we have updated a detailed forecast of coastal real estate losses in the 48 states developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In projecting these costs into the future Ackerman and Stanton (2008) assume that annual costs will be proportional to sea-level rise and to projected GDP. Ackerman and Stanton (2008) calculate the annual loss of real estate from inundation due to the projected sea-level rise, which reaches 45 inches by 2100 in the business-as-usual case. These losses amount to $360 billion by 2100, or 0.35 percent of GDP, as shown in Table 1.2 (Ackerman and Stanton 2008).
Table 1.2. Business-as-Usual Scenario: Increase in U.S. Real Estate at Risk From Sea-Level Rise (Ackerman and Stanton 2008)
No one expects coastal property owners to wait passively for these damages to occur; those who can afford to protect their properties will undoubtedly do so. But all the available methods for protection against sea-level rise are problematic and expensive. It is difficult to imagine any of them being used on a large enough scale to shelter all low-lying U.S. coastal lands that are at risk under the business-as-usual case. Elevating homes and other structures is one way to reduce the risk of flooding, if not hurricane-induced wind damage. A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimate of the cost of elevating a frame construction house on a slab-on-grade foundation by two feet is $58 per square foot, with an added cost of $0.93 per square foot for each additional foot of elevation (FEMA 1998). This means that it would cost $58,000 to elevate a house with a 1,000-square-foot footprint by two feet. It is not clear whether building elevation is applicable to multistory structures; at the least, it is sure to be more expensive and difficult (Ackerman and Stanton 2008). Another strategy for protecting real estate from climate change is to build seawalls to hold back rising waters. There are a number of ecological costs associated with building walls to hold back the sea, including accelerated beach erosion; disruption of nesting and breeding grounds for important species, such as sea turtles; and prevention of the migration of displaced wetland species. In order to prevent flooding in developed areas, some parts of the coast would require the installation of new seawalls. Estimates for building or retrofitting seawalls range from $2 million to $20 million per linear mile (Reeves 2007). While adaptation, including measures to protect the most valuable real estate, will undoubtedly reduce sealevel rise damages below the amounts shown in Table 1.2, protection measures are expensive, and there is no single, believable technology or strategy for protecting vulnerable areas throughout the country. The high cost of adapting to sea-level rise underscores the need to act early to prevent the worst impacts of global warming (Ackerman and Stanton 2008). Florida is at particular risk for damages caused by a rise in sea level as a result of global warming. In the business-as-usual scenario, the annual increase in Floridas residential property at risk from sea-level rise reaches $66 billion by 2100, or nearly 20 percent of total U.S. damages. Sea-level rise will affect more than just residential property. In Florida, 9 percent of the state is vulnerable to 27 inches of sea-level rise, which would be reached soon after 2060 in the business- as-usual case. Some 1.5 million people currently live in the affected region. In addition to residential properties, worth $130 billion, Floridas 27-inch vulnerable zone includes: 334 public schools; 82 low-income housing complexes; 68 hospitals; 37 nursing homes; 171 assisted living facilities; 1,025 churches, synagogues, and mosques; 341 hazardous materials sites, including 5 superfund sites; 2 nuclear reactors; 3 prisons; 74 airports; 115 solid waste disposal sites; 140 water treatment facilities; 247 gas stations; 277 shopping centers; 1,362 hotels, motels, and inns; and 19,684 historic structures. Similar facilities will be at risk in other states with intensive coastal development as sea levels rise in the business-as-usual case (Ackerman and Stanton 2008).
1.4.3. Water Supply and the Agriculture Industry
In many parts of the country, the most important impact of climate change during the 21st century will be its effect on the supply of water. Recent droughts in the Southeast and in the West have underscored our dependence on the fluctuating natural supply of freshwater. With five out of every six gallons of water used in the United States consumed by agriculture, any changes in water supply will quickly ripple through the nations farms as well. Surprisingly, studies from the 1990s often projected that the early stages of warming would boost crop yields. Climate change threatens to damage American agriculture, with drier conditions in many areas and greater variability and extreme events everywhere. Agriculture is the nations leading use of water, and the U.S. agricultural sector is shaped by active water management: nearly half of the value of all crops comes from the 16 percent of U.S. farm acreage that is irrigated (U.S. Department of Agriculture 2004). Especially in the West, any major shortfall of water will be translated into a decline in food production. As one of the economic activities most directly exposed to the changing climate, agriculture has been a focal point of research on climate impacts, with frequent claims of climate benefits, especially in temperate regions like much of the United States (Ackerman and Stanton 2008). The initial stages of climate change appear to be beneficial to farmers in the northern states. In the colder parts of the country, warmer average temperatures mean longer growing seasons. Moreover, plants grow by absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere; so the rising level of carbon dioxide, which is harmful in other respects, could act as a fertilizer and increase yields. A few plant species, notably corn, sorghum, and sugarcane, are already so efficient in absorbing carbon dioxide that they would not benefit from more, but for all other major crops, more carbon could allow more growth. Early studies of climate costs and benefits estimated substantial gains to agriculture from the rise in temperatures and carbon dioxide levels (Ackerman and Stanton 2008).
Table 1.3. Business-as-Usual Scenario: Increases in U.S. Water Costs Compared With 2005 Levels (Ackerman and Stanton 2008)
The passage of time will also eliminate any climate benefits to agriculture. Once the temperature increase reaches 6 degrees Fahrenheit, crop yields everywhere will be lowered by climate change. Under the business-asusual scenario, that temperature threshold is reached by mid- century. Even before that point, warmer conditions may allow tropical pests and diseases to move farther north, reducing farm yields. And the increasing variability of temperature and precipitation that will accompany climate change will be harmful to most or all crops (Rosenzweig et al. 2002). One recent study examined the relationship between the market value of U.S. farmland and its current climate; the value of the land reflects the value of what it can produce. For the area east of the 100th meridian, where irrigation is rare, the value of an acre of farmland is closely linked to temperature and precipitation (Schlenker, Hanemann, and Fisher 2006). Land value is maximized meaning that conditions for agricultural productivity are idealwith temperatures during the growing season, April through September, close to the late-20th-century average, and rainfall during the growing season of 31 inches per year, well above the historical average of 23 inches (Schlenker, Hanemann and Fisher 2006). If this relationship remained unchanged, then becoming warmer would increase land values only in areas that are colder than average; becoming drier would decrease land values almost everywhere. For the years 2070 to 2099, Ackerman and Stanton (2008) projected that the average value of farmland would fall by 62 percent under the IPCCs A2 scenario, the basis for our business-as-usual case. The climate variable most strongly connected to the decline in value was the greater number of days above 93 degrees Fahrenheit, a temperature that is bad for virtually all crops. The same researchers also studied the value of farmland in California, finding that the most important factor there was the amount of water used for irrigation; temperature and precipitation were much less important in California than in eastern and midwestern agriculture (Schlenker, Hanemann and Fisher 2006). It is difficult to project a monetary impact of climate change on agriculture; if food becomes less abundant, prices will rise, partially or wholly offsetting farmers losses from decreased yields. This is also an area where assumptions about adaptation to changing climatic conditions are of great importance: The more rapid and skillful the adaptation, the smaller the losses will be. It appears likely, however, that under the business-as-usual scenario, the first half of this century will see either little change or a small climate-related increase in yields from non-irrigated agriculture; irrigated areas will be able to match this performance if sufficient water is available. By the second half of the century, as temperature increases move beyond 6 degrees Fahrenheit, yields will drop everywhere (Ackerman and Stanton 2008). In a broader global perspective, the United States, for all its problems, will be one of the fortunate countries. Tropical agriculture will suffer declining yields at once, as many crops are already near the top of their sustainable temperature ranges. At the same time, the worlds population will grow from an estimated 6.6 billion today to 9 billion or more by mid-centurywith a large portion of the growth occurring in tropical countries. The growing, or at least non-declining, crop yields in temperate agriculture over the next few decades will be a valuable, scarce global resource. The major producing regions of temperate agriculturethe United States, Canada, northern China, Russia, and northern Europe, along with Argentina, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africawill have an expanded share of the worlds capacity to grow food, while populations are increasing fastest in tropical countries where crop yields will be falling. The challenge of agriculture in the years ahead will be to develop economic and political mechanisms that allow us to use our farm resources to feed the hungry worldwide. At the same time, while we may fare better than other nations, climate change threatens to damage American agriculture, with drier conditions in many areas and greater variability and extreme events everywhere (Ackerman and Stanton 2008).
1.4.4. Debates
Theres a deeply rooted perception that the U.S. economy will suffer little damage from climate change. That view dates back to work from the mid-1990s by the influential Yale University economist William Nordhaus. Nordhaus took what was known about the science of climate change, then constructed an economic model to estimate the monetary harm. The model put the economic cost to the U.S. of raising global temperatures by 2.5 to 3 degrees C (expected by about 2100) at about to percent of GDP. The original economic model wasnt complete, it didnt include some sectors of the economy or non-market damages effects that economists cant easily quantify, such as loss of species. Other experts see the hit to GDP as much greater. An earlier version of this debate flared into public view and the media for a short time in 2006. A report prepared for the British government by economist Sir Nicholas Stern found that the cost of unconstrained global warming would be huge up to a 20 percent drop per year in the worlds GDP by 2050. The widely disparate conclusion compared to Nordhaus, however, turned largely on one single factor: Stern put a higher value on costs far out in the future and on the future return from climate change reduction investments made today than Nordhaus did. Or in economists jargon, he used a lower discount rate. You can change the discount rate and get a totally different answer. Whos right (Carey 2011)? There are now new critiques of the low estimates of the costs of climate change that challenge core details of how those damages were calculated, such as whether the analyses correctly included the costs of heat waves, more intense hurricanes, and other extreme events predicted to become more common. One issue cited by the critics is that the models assume that many of the costs of climate change in the U.S. are balanced by benefits or that it will be easy to adapt. For instance, heat waves in summer mean higher energy costs and more deaths from heat. However, warmer winters save fuel and lives, so in the economic models, the two generally balance out. The critics say these conclusions are far too optimistic. Hanemann points out that summer air conditioning requires expensive daytime peak power, while the winter savings come from much cheaper nighttime baseload. The damages grow much worse as we get more extreme events power. So the overall costs must be higher. Similarly, damages to agriculture from heat waves and droughts are likely to swamp benefits from milder winters and longer growing seasons and moving crops to better climes may be costly or difficult (Carey 2011). The models also calculate future harms using predicted average increases in temperature or precipitation. But scientists dont believe temperatures and precipitation will be uniformly average around the planet. Instead, they foresee more and more severe extreme events: more powerful hurricanes and storms, record floods, searing heat waves and droughts, bigger wildfires. In fact, the U.S. has already experienced a higher-than-average amount of warming. A graph showing these events would not only have a long tail (i.e. the events are more extreme), but the tail would also be fatter (i.e. more events). Critics say thats a serious flaw. Many, many of the costs associated with climate change are not included in the models, says NYUs Livermore. Additional examples include acidification of the oceans from the absorption of carbon dioxide, which could threaten ocean food chains; loss of glaciers, which could cause water shortages and reduce hydropower; sea level rise, which could flood coastal cities; and mass migrations and increased global tensions, as people move away from regions hit harder by of the effects of climate change. The military takes these possibilities seriously, noting that climate change is a threat multiplier (Carey 2011). Harvard economist Martin Weitzman even suggests that the economic costs of a catastrophic event, however unlikely it might be, would be so enormous that it would overwhelm the whole analysis. Perhaps in the end the climate-change economist can help most by not presenting a cost- benet estimate for what is inherently a fat-tailed situation with potentially unlimited downside exposure, he writes. True, the models dont include all possible costs or catastrophes, Nordhaus and Mendelsohn respond. For one thing, the models calculate the damages from climate change only in terms of economic activity. They dont assess damages from non-market effects like loss of species. Take ocean acidification, which makes climate change more worrisome than it appeared to be in the 1990s, Nordhaus says. The direct economic damages from acidification are negligible. We know the actual economic impacts are almost sure to be small because they involve fisheries, which are already pretty small, and they involve only ocean fisheries that are sensitive to carbon, Nordhaus says (Carey 2011). The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to conclude that inaction is costly. With climate legislation apparently dead, regulation under the Clean Air Act is the only remaining pathway to federal curbs on greenhouse gases. To bolster its case in the face of strong opposition, the agency is working on a more detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of regulation, sources say. Past Administration efforts to assess the economic toll used Nordhaus basic approach. But because of the limitations of the economic models, the agency is also planning to examine scenarios of possible climate change, and expects that it will find a large economic toll. We think the costs of not acting will be huge, says one EPA official (Carey 2011).
1.5. Model for a Complex Analysis of a Passive House Life Cycle
1.5.1. Impact of Climate Change on Energy Use in the Built Environment
This Section was developed by using Li et al. (2012) paper Impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment in different climate zones. Work on the subtropical climates had revealed an increasing trend of temperature and summer discomfort over the past decades and it was found that the anticipated temperature rise could result in more cooling demand. More electricity use for air conditioning would lead to larger emissions, which in turn would exacerbate climate change and global warming. Even in regions with severe cold climates where the decrease in heating energy use could, in terms of final or delivered energy, outweigh the increase in cooling, the impact of climate change on the overall primary energy requirement and the environment would remain uncertain. This is because heating is usually provided by oil- or gas-fired boiler plants whereas cooling relies on electricity-driven chillers (except gas-fired absorption systems). In terms of carbon footprint, electricity tends to have a much lower overall efficiency and higher CO 2 emissions per unit energy consumption. From a nationwide energy and environmental perspective, it is important to be able to estimate the magnitude of the likely changes in heating and cooling energy requirements due to climate change in different climate zones. Broadly speaking, there are two main approaches (Li et al. 2012): - degree-days method, and - building energy simulation technique.
1.5.1.1. Degree-days method
The degree-days concept is widely used for measuring the influence of climate on heating and cooling requirements. Hekkenberg et al. (2009) argues that socio-economic changes may alter the temperature dependence pattern of energy demand in future years. However, to a good approximation heating and cooling energy requirements can be assumed to be proportional to the HDDs and CDDs, respectively. In recent years, this method has been used to assess the impact of climate change on regional energy demand as well as energy consumption in the built environment in different parts of the world. Studies conducted in the US, Europe and Asia will be highlighted as follows (a summary of the key points is shown in Table 1.4) (Li et al. 2012).
Table 1.4. Summary of studies adopting degree-days method (Li et al. 2012)
Europe
Christenson et al. (2006) assessed the impact of climate warming on building energy demand in Switzerland using the degree-days method. Past trends were determined from temperature data for the period of 19012003. The future trends in the 21st century was estimated based on 41 regional climate change scenarios derived from 35 simulations with eight global climate models. They found that weather data currently used for building design would increasingly lead to an overestimation of heating and underestimation of cooling demand in buildings and, therefore, require periodic adaptation. Greater attention should be paid in future to the summer thermal behaviour of buildings. Pilli-Sihvola et al. (2010) chose five countries along the north-south gradient: Finland, Germany, Netherland, France and Spain. Their main findings were: in central and north Europe the decrease in heating due to climate warming would dominate, and in southern Europe climate warming and the consequential increase in cooling and electricity demand would outweigh the decreasing need for space heating. Based on six scenarios, Day et al. (2009) analysed the CDDs and reported that, if left unchecked, the increase in energy consumption due to the growth in active cooling systems in London would lead to a doubling of CO 2 emissions by 2030. The growth would be due to increase in the building stock, greater penetration of cooling systems and warmer climates. Across in the southern Mediterranean region, Cartalis et al. (2001) studied the changes in the HDDs and CDDs and found reduction in heating and increase in cooling requirements, while Mirasgedis et al. (2006; 2007) used HDDs and CDDs to account for the weather influences in their forecast of mid-term electricity demand in Greece, and estimated an increase of 3.65.5% in the annual electricity demand attributable solely to climate change in the 21st century under different emissions scenarios (Li et al. 2012).
Asia
Lee and Levermore (2010) used predictions from the HadCM3 general circulation model to assess the changes in degree-days and hence the impacts of climate change on building energy demand in two cities in South Korea: Seoul and Ulsan. They found a tremendous increase in CDDs which would result in a substantial rise in energy consumption and CO 2 emissions due to air conditioning. Lam et al. (2010) studied the underlying trends of HDDs and CDDs in the nine climate zones and sub-zones within China in the 20th and 21st centuries. It was found that all the nine climate zones displayed distinct decreasing trends in the HDDs and increasing trends in the CDDs. Reductions in HDDs would result in less winter heating and increases in CDDs would lead to more cooling requirement. In the severe cold climate zones reduction in heating requirement would most likely outweigh the modest increase in summer cooling. In the hot summer and cold winter climate zones where both winter heating and summer cooling requirements are important, the magnitude of reduction in heating and the magnitude of increase in cooling could be comparable, and the overall impact could be either positive or negative. The most significant impact on energy use in the built environment would occur in the hot summer and warm winter climate zone where building energy use is dominated by cooling requirement. This would result in a shift towards more electrical demand. While the degree-days technique could describe the temperature dependence pattern of energy demand in a U shape fashion and give a good indication of the likely heating and cooling requirements, Hekkenberg et al. (2009) argued in favour of dynamically modelling several key parameters and using direct meteorological variables instead of degree-days. Earlier work by Scott et al. (1994) using the DOE-2 building energy model on a prototype commercial building had also found that while the effect of climate change on heating energy use was largely linear, cooling energy use was nonlinear to temperature because the dynamic interactions between latent and sensible heat gains was strongly influenced by the humidity (Li et al. 2012).
1.5.1.2. Building energy simulation technique
There had been a number of studies on the impact of climate change on the built environment using sophisticated building energy simulation tools to perform hour-by-hour computation of the heating/cooling loads and corresponding energy use. Building energy simulation is an acceptable technique for assessing the dynamic interactions between the external climates, the building envelope and the HVAC system and the corresponding energy consumption. It has played an important role in the development of simple design tools and building energy efficiency codes. This technique has also been used by a number of researchers to assess the impact of climate change on energy use in buildings. Review of these studies in Australia, the US, Europe and Asia (including the Middle East) are presented as follows (a summary of the key points is shown in Table 1.5) (Li et al. 2012).
Table 1.5. Summary of studies using building energy simulation technique (Li et al. 2012)
Europe
Synthetic meteorological TRYs based on statistical and stochastic models were assembled by Aguiar et al. (2002) for hourly energy simulation of Portuguese buildings. Both the base and enhanced greenhouse effect scenarios were considered. A shortening of the heating season and an extension of the cooling were observed. The reduction in heating energy use was smaller than the increase in the cooling requirement, resulting in an overall increase in the energy demand for space conditioning in Portugal by the end of the 21st century. The large increase in cooling thermal loads would be in the order of 500880 kWh per household per year in the residential sector and 19 24 kWh/m 2 for offices. In Switzerland, Frank (2005) investigated the potential impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy consumption. Four climate scenarios (WMO normals, IEA design reference, average reference and warm reference) were considered for the Zurich-Kloten location, representative of the climatic situation in the Swiss Central Plateau for the period 2050 2100. It was found that the annual cooling energy demand for office buildings with internal heat gains of 2030 W/m 2 would increase by 2231050% while the heating energy demand would decrease by 3658%. Potential mitigation measures to reduce the need for cooling plant included passive designs involving efficient solar shading and night ventilation strategies (Li et al. 2012). More recently in UK, Gaterell and McEvoy (2005) assessed the impact of projected climate changes on the thermal performance of the built environment and the measures implemented to improve such performance. A thermal model of a case study house was developed to simulate the impact of different insulation measures on the heat demand profile. The UKCIP02 (Hulme et al., 2002) low and high emissions scenarios in 2050 were considered and compared with the 2003 situation. Results from their thermal analysis highlighted the sensitivity of different insulation measures to alternative climate scenarios. They reported that while double glazing offered good energy savings, its energy performance would be more adversely affected under the high emissions climate scenario, whereas other measures such as loft insulation would be less sensitive to climate change. Using the morphing technique to stretch and shift existing TRY and design summer year to produce hourly weather data for simulation of the thermal and energy performance of buildings, Holmes and Hacker (2007) and Belcher et al. (2005) (CIBSE TM36, 2005) addressed the dual challenges of designing sustainable low-energy buildings while still providing thermal comfort under warmer summer conditions. Four case studies were considered: one school (natural ventilation) and three office buildings (mixed-mode with a low-energy cooling system using adiabatic cooling, high mass and advanced intelligently controlled natural ventilation). The predictions indicated that high mass buildings were capable of providing a higher quality of internal environment. That, however, could not be achieved without due attention to all the principles of low-energy and sustainable design, including proper appeal to the present-day and likely future climatic context of the locations. Jentsch et al. (2008) simulated a case study building to highlight the potential impact of climate change on the future summer overheating hours inside naturally ventilated buildings. They stated that free-running buildings might be difficult to keep comfortable without taking appropriate measures such as external shading, use of thermal mass and a well designed ventilation strategy (e.g. night cooling), which would only work if the buildings were managed appropriately with proper occupant feedbacks and interactions. De Wilde et al. (2008) (De Wilde, Tian, 2010) studied the uncertainties in predicting the impact of climate change on the thermal performance of domestic and office buildings. For a terraced house, the uncertainty remained large, at 60% or more. They reported that selection of performance metrics and assumptions made when modelling a building for climate change impact assessment were complex and tended to have a direct influence over the uncertainty. For office buildings, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the internal heat gains due to lighting and equipment would be the dominant factors for the uncertainty in future carbon emissions. Reductions in these internal heat gains could be used to drive a reduction in carbon emissions. Likewise, Collins et al. (2010) estimated the impact of climate change on the future energy consumption in the UK housing stock at four weather data locations: Cardiff, Edinburgh, London and Manchester and for seven housing types: end- terrace, mid-terrace, semi-detached, detached, converted apartment, purpose-built apartment and temporary/unknown. It was found that the UK carbon emissions from space conditioning in dwellings would decrease 10% by 2050. Reduction in CO 2 emissions from gas could offset the increases in electricity use (Li et al. 2012).
Asia (including Middle East)
The air temperatures were raised by 1.6 C and 2.9 C to reflect the climate in 2050, and by 2.3 C and 5.9 C in 2100 in a study by Radhi (2009) to investigate the potential impact of global warming on residential buildings in United Arab Emirates. It was concluded that global warming was likely to increase the energy used for cooling by 23.5% with a 5.9 C increase in the ambient temperature. It was also found that energy design measures such as thermal insulation and building thermal mass were important to cope with global warming. In subtropical Hong Kong, Wong et al. (2010) used the overall thermal transfer value (OTTV) approach to estimate the impact of climate change on thermal performance of the building envelope. It was found that cooling loads could increase by 12.321.6%. Mitigation measures suggested included raising the summer set point temperature (SST), double glazing and wall thermal insulation. Wan et al. (2011; 2012) developed a hybrid approach (involving principal component analysis, multi-year dynamic building energy simulations using historical measured hourly weather data and regression models) to assess the future office building energy use in five major cities across China during the 21st century: Harbin (severe cold), Beijing (cold), Shanghai (hot summer and cold winter), Kunming (mild) and Hong Kong (hot summer and warm winter). The dry-bulb temperature and the wet-bulb temperature showed a clear increasing trend, but not the global solar radiation. Similar observations were reported for the other three cities. Those observations appeared to be consistent with findings from investigation work on cloud cover, solar radiation and climate changes in the US (Coke et al. (1999), Hong Kong (Lam (2006)) and Australia (Guan (2007)). A decreasing trend of heating load and an increasing trend of cooling load due to climate change in future years were observed. Estimated increase in cooling loads was 11.424.2%, and reduction in heating loads 13.855.7%. In severe cold Harbin (heating-dominated) in the north reduction in heating energy use outweighed the increase in cooling, and vice versa in subtropical Hong Kong (cooling-dominated) in the south. In Beijing and Shanghai where both the heating and cooling requirements were significant and comparable in magnitude, there would only be marginal increase in the total building energy use in the 21st century. It was found that raising the indoor design condition by 12 C could result in significant energy savings and have great mitigation potential. Li et al. (2012) have reviewed a number of relevant studies on the impact of climate change on energy use in the built environment in different parts of the world. The conclusions are (Li et al. 2012): - In the severe cold climates, reduction in heating requirement would most likely outweigh the modest increase in summer cooling. In the hot summer and cold winter climate zone where both winter heating and summer cooling requirements are important, the magnitude of reduction in heating and the magnitude of increase in cooling could be comparable. But for non-domestic buildings with large internal heat gains (e.g. people, electric lighting and equipment) where the annual cooling load tends to larger than the heating load, the overall impact would certainly be an increase in the total building energy use. The most significant adverse impact on energy use in the built environment would occur in the hot summer and warm winter climate zone where building energy use is dominated by cooling requirement. - An increase in temperature has varying impacts on the electricity demand depending on the geographical spread of the major climate zones and the prevailing role of electrical power for heating and cooling purposes. From a nationwide perspective, this could have significant implications for the energy and environmental policy. Space heating is provided largely by oil- or gas-fired boiler plants, whereas space cooling mainly relies on electricity. There would certainly be a shift towards electrical power demand. More work is required especially on the costs of changing electricity demand and carbon emissions from different fuel mix (including the role of renewable energy sources) in the energy sector to cater for the likely impact of climate change on the energy use in the built environment. Among the renewables for building applications, solar-powered cooling is particularly attractive because building peak cooling load and maximum solar intensity tend to occur at about the same time during the day. - For non-domestic buildings with large internal loads (except severe cold climates), reducing the lighting load density would have great energy savings and hence mitigation potential. More work is required on the dynamic interactions between the building, its building services system and the indoor and outdoor conditions using predicted hourly weather data from general and/or regional circulation models. - Raising the summer set point temperature would be an effective energy conservation measure in mitigating the impact of climate change on the summer cooling energy consumption. This can be readily applied to both existing and new buildings. However, more work on the adoption of adaptive thermal comfort in the current building design guidelines and energy codes is required. This will involve, among other issues, field studies of thermal comfort and the socio-economic aspects of building occupant behaviour.
1.5.2. Life cycle energy analysis
Buildings demand energy in their life cycle right from its construction to demolition. Studies on the total energy use during the life cycle are desirable to identify phases of largest energy use and to develop strategies for its reduction. Ramesha, Prakasha and Shuklab (2009) presented a critical review of the life cycle energy analyses of buildings resulting from 73 cases across 13 countries. The study includes both residential and office buildings. Results show that operating (8090%) and embodied (1020%) phases of energy use are significant contributors to building's life cycle energy demand. Life cycle energy (primary) requirement of conventional residential buildings falls in the range of 150400 kWh/m 2 per year and that of office buildings in the range of 250550 kWh/m 2 per year. Building's life cycle energy demand can be reduced by reducing its operating energy significantly through use of passive and active technologies even if it leads to a slight increase in embodied energy. However, an excessive use of passive and active features in a building may be counterproductive. It is observed that low energy buildings perform better than self-sufficient (zero operating energy) buildings in the life cycle context. Worldwide, 3040% of all primary energy is used for buildings and they are held responsible for 4050% of green house gas emissions. It is therefore essential for the building construction industry to achieve sustainable development in the society. Sustainable development is viewed as development with low environmental impact, and high economical and social gains. To achieve the goals of sustainability it is required to adopt a multi-disciplinary approach covering a number of features such as energy saving, improved use of materials including water, reuse and recycling of materials and emissions control. Life cycle energy analysis of buildings assumes greater significance for formulating strategies to achieve reduction in primary energy use of the buildings and control emissions (Ramesha, Prakasha and Shuklab 2009).
Table 1.6. Data sources for life cycle analysis (Ramesha, Prakasha and Shuklab 2009)
Life cycle energy analysis is an approach that accounts for all energy inputs to a building in its life cycle. The system boundaries of this analysis) include the energy use of the following phases: manufacture, use, and demolition. Manufacture phase includes manufacturing and transportation of building materials and technical installations used in erection and renovation of the buildings. Operation phase encompasses all activities related to the use of the buildings, over its life span. These activities include maintaining comfort condition inside the buildings, water use and powering appliances. Finally, demolition phase includes destruction of the building and transportation of dismantled materials to landfill sites and/or recycling plants. Table 1.6 shows an abstract of data sources adopted by different authors to evaluate life cycle analysis of buildings (Ramesha, Prakasha and Shuklab 2009). A large variety of materials are being used in building construction. Some of them may have a life span less than that of the building. As a result, they are replaced to rehabilitate the building. In addition to this, buildings require some regular annual maintenance. The energy incurred for such repair and replacement (rehabilitation) needs to be accounted during the entire life of the buildings. It is the energy required for maintaining comfort conditions and day-to-day maintenance of the buildings. It is the energy for HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning), domestic hot water, lighting, and for running appliances. Operational energy largely varies on the level of comfort required, climatic conditions and operating schedules. At the end of buildings service life, energy is required to demolish the building and transporting the waste material to landfill sites and/or recycling plants (Ramesha, Prakasha and Shuklab 2009). On the basis of above information (Sections 5.1 and 5.2), we can state that development of passive houses can be a rational option for climate change mitigation. The last Section in this Chapter will be devoted for the passive houses.
1.5.3. Model for a Complex Analysis of a Passive House Life Cycle
In order to design and realize a high-quality project, it is necessary to take care of its efficiency from the brief to the end of service life. The entire process must be planned and executed with consideration of goals aspired by participating stakeholders and micro and macro level environment. In order to realize the above purposes an original Model of a complex analysis of a passive house life cycle (see Fig. 1.2) was developed enabling to analyze a passive house life cycle, the parties involved in the project as well as its micro and macro environment as one complete entity.
A model for a complex analysis of a passive house life cycle was being developed step by step as follows (see Fig. 1.2): a comprehensive quantitative and conceptual description of a research object, multivariant design of life cycle of a passive house, multple criteria analysis of life cycle of a passive house, selection of the most rational version of life cycle of a passive house, development of rational micro and macro level environment. The above model will be now described in more detail. For more comprehensive study of a research object and methods and ways of its assessment major constituent parts of the above object will be briefly analyzed. They are as follows: a passive house life cycle, the parties involved in the project development and micro and macro environment having a particular impact on it.
A research object
Micro and macro level environment
Brief Design
Utilization Clients Users Designers
Contractors Life cycle of a passive house Finansing institutions
Facilities management organizations
State and state organisations
Micro and macro level environment
Multivariant design of life cycle of a passive house
Multple criteria analysis of life cycle of a passive house
Selection of the most rational version of life cycle of a passive house
Development of rational micro and macro level environment
Determination of rational processes and their constituents parts Brief Design
Utilization Realization of purposes of stakeholders (clients, users, designers, economists, contractors, maintenance engineers, passive house material manufacturers, suppliers, contractors, finansing institutions, local government, state and state organisations) involved in the life cycle of a passive house
Rational life cycle of a passive house
Development of rational micro and macro level environment
Fig. 1.2. A model for a complex analysis of a passive house life cycle
A passive house life cycle in turn consists of seven closely interrelated stages, such as brief, design, construction, maintenance, facilities management, demolition and utilisation. At the stage of brief the client and designers state major requirements and limitations regarding the passive house in question. A passive house is being designed with account of the clients needs as well as the possibilities of designers, constructors, suppliers, facilities managers, etc. At the design stage passive house life cycle multivariant design and multiple criteria analysis should be carried out taking into account the experience gained in realizing similar projects and seeking to harmonize the activities of various stakeholders. At a design stage, the strategy and means of its realization related to passive house maintenance and facilities management should be defined. These should ensure that maintenance and facilities management problems are continually dealt with, starting from the brief stage. A passive house life cycle may have a lot of alternative versions. These variants are based on the alternative brief, design, construction, maintenance and facilities management processes and their constituent parts. The above solutions and processes may be further considered in more detail. For instance, the alternative passive house variants may be developed by varying its three- dimensional planning, as well as structural and engineering solutions. Thus, dozens of thousands of passive house life cycle alternative versions can be obtained.
Possible brief versions Possible design versions
Possible utilisation versions
Fig. 1.3. Development of possible passive house life cycle versions and relationship of its various stages
In working out the project the lay-out, elevations, sectional views were used to determine possible versions of structural (passive house structures and materials) and utilities (heating, ventilation, water supply, sewerage, etc.) systems. The same relationship is found between the brief, design, construction, maintenance, facilities management, demolition and utilisation stages (see Fig. 1.3), i.e. the first stages set the limits of the next ones. This process is also complicated by the fact that the considered versions of brief, design, construction, maintenance, facilities management, demolition and utilisation are plenty and not always compatible. It should also be kept in mind that the improvement of some aspects of certain stage operations may lead to the deterioration of the indices of other stage or processes. Since the rationality of various aspects of project often depends on a particular interested party only complex design of a life cycle process of a passive house involving close collaboration of major stakeholders can lead to good results. Various parties (see Fig. 1.4) are involved in the brief, design, construction, maintenance, facilities management, demolition and utilisation of a passive house, their cooperation taking rather long period of time.
Clients Users Designers Economists
Stakeholders Passive house material manufactu- rers Maintenance organizations
Suppliers Contractors Finansing institutions Local government State and state organisations
Fig. 1.4. Parties involved in the life cycle of a passive house
Every day designers, contractors, suppliers, maintenance specialists, etc. make and analyze the alternative solutions which may have an impact on the decisions made by other professionals as well as affective overall project efficiency. Designers deal with a passive houses architectural and aesthetic aspects, three-dimensional planning, its strength and rigidity as well as defining comfortability of a passive house (i.e. temperature and humidity, natural lighting, sound insulation, etc.).They are also interested in getting efficient services, such as heating, ventilation, water supply and sewerage, communication, automation, etc. Hygiene professionals determine pollution level and the affect of some construction materials on human health, while economists study the cost of a plot and a passive house, costs of maintenance, taxes, insurance, rent interest, changes in property costs, quality (e.g. social, technical and economic indices). Contractors, in their turn, are interested in efficient technology, organization and management methods, whereas maintenance specialists seek effective passive house maintenance and refurbishment. The information provided by various professionals about the same object is executing the project in its entity defines the efficiency of a passive house life cycle. The life cycle of a passive house cannot be effectively implemented without the satisfaction of the differing goals of stakeholders. Each interested party attempts to satisfy a number of goals (economic, comfort, esthetical, environment, legal, social). Some of these are easily attainable, while others can be attained only with difficulty. Also, they are not equally significant. Therefore, the stakeholders, even if they fail to reach all the desired goals, but attain the sufficiently important ones, can feel quite contented with the situation. In this case, it is very useful to apply the principle of mutual substitution and summary satisfaction of needs. The stakeholders and their aspired goals make up one complete entity. The greater is the scope of realization of the pursued goals (taking into account their significance), the greater (in opinion of stakeholders) is the total efficiency of the project. In other words, the total efficiency of a passive house life cycle is directly proportional to the realization of the goals of the parties involved. Major stakeholders are involved in the development of all main life cycle stages. This helps support close links between various stakeholders and passive house life cycle formation stages. Since only the entity of all passive house life cycle stages and the parties involved in their development can define the project comprehensively the achievement of an efficient project requires multivariant design and multiple criteria analysis. The level of the efficiency of construction industry depends on a number of variables, at three levels: micro and macro level. Although the macro level factors normally influence the level of the whole country or industry, this research considers only their effect on the efficiency of the construction industry. The efficiency of the construction industry depends on the influence of many complex macro level factors (policy executed by the government, legal and institutional infrastructure, physical infrastructure, financial sector, environment issues, unemployment, interest rate, inflation, innovations, exchange rate). The efficiency level will, therefore, vary depending on the aggregate effect of these macro level factors. The efficiency level of construction industry also depends on various micro level factors (sources of company finance, information system of construction, types of contracts, construction employers associations, education and training, brief, designing, manufacture, construction and maintenance processes, etc.) some of which depend on the influence of the macro level factors. For instance, the system of taxation which is set at the macro level (following fiscal policy of the government), exerts a direct influence on wages and salaries (and thereby disposable incomes) and on prices of materials at the micro level (project level). The standpoint of the State (various laws and decrees, working of State institutions, etc.) regarding certain activities exert considerable influence on the efficiency of organizations. The relations of various stakeholders (for instance, between customer and contractor) are directly governed by law. Each construction organization has a certain status set by law. This status determines the limits of organizations activities and the amount of taxes paid by it. Hence, life cycle efficiency of a passive house depend to a very great extent not only on the selected most rational processes and solutions, the interest level of the concerned parties involved in the project, expressed as the effectiveness of their participation in the process, but also on the micro and macro level factors. As can be seen from Figure 1.2 the object of investigation is rather complicated involving not only a passive house life cycle and its stages but also including stakeholders and micro and macro environment factors having impact on the former. To select a rational project a new passive house life cycle complex analysis model was developed. Based on this model, professionals involved in design and realization of a passive house life cycle can develop a lot of the alternative versions as well as assessing them and making the final choice of the most efficient variant. The diversity of solutions available contributes to more accurate evaluation of climatic conditions, risk exposure, maintenance services, as well as making the project cheaper and better satisfying a clients architectural, comfortability, technological and other requirements. This also leads to better satisfaction of the needs of all parties involved in the project design and realization.
1.5.4. Practical Realization of a Model for a Complex Analysis of a Passive House Life Cycle
A practical realization of a Model for a complex analysis of a passive house life cycle was being developed step by step as follows (see Fig. 1.5): A comprehensive quantitative and conceptual description of the life cycle of a passive house, its stages, stakeholders and environment. Development of a complex database based on quantitative and conceptual description of the research object. Development of new methods of multiple criteria analysis to carry out multivariant design of a passive house life cycle, determine the utility degree of the alternative versions obtained and set the priorities. Creation of a multiple criteria decision support systems to be used in computer-aided multivariant design of a passive house life cycle, determining the utility degree of the alternative versions obtained and setting the priorities; Analysis of micro and macro level environment factors influencing a passive house life cycle and possibilities to alter them in a desired direction. The stages mentioned above will be now described in more detail. Quantitative and conceptual description of the research object (see Fig. 1.5) provides the information about various aspects of a passive house life cycle (i.e. economical, technical, technological, infrastructural, qualitative (architectural, aesthetic, comfortability), legislative, social ones, etc.). Quantitative information is based on the criteria systems and subsystems, units of measure, values and initial weights as well as the data on the alternative projects development. When drawing up the system of criteria fully describing the life cycle of a passive house, it is worth-while to take into account the suggestions of other authors. This is explained by the fact that the goals pursued by the stakeholders and the system of criteria describing the projects in a certain sense are rather subjective. Therefore, in order to increase the degree of objectivity, we shall rely on the suggestions of specialists working in this field when drawing up the system of criteria describing the projects. Conceptual description of a passive house life cycle presents virtual and augmented reality, textual, graphical (schemes, graphs, diagrams, drawings), visual (videotapes) information about the projects and the criteria used for their definition, as well as giving the reason for the choice of this particular system of criteria, their values and significances. This part also includes information about the possible ways of multivariant design. In order to perform a complete study of the research object a complex evaluation of its economic, technical, qualitative (i.e. architectural, aesthetic, comfortability), technological, social, legislative, infrastructural and other aspects is needed. The diversity of aspects being assessed should follow the diversity of ways of presenting data needed for decision making. Therefore, the necessary data may be presented in numerical, textual, graphical (schemes, graphs, charts), formula, videotape, virtual and augmented reality and other forms. Quantitative and conceptual description of a passive house life cycle and its stages made is used as a basis for developing a complex data bases containing overall information about it and allowing to carry out its multivariant design and multiple criteria analysis. Since the efficiency of any constituent part of the project depends on a particular party in its execution only complex design of a passive house life cycle involving close cooperation of all stakeholders can yield good results.
A comprehensive quantitative and conceptual description of the life cycle of a passive house, its stages, stakeholders and environment
Text Virtual and augmented reality Formula
Drawings Presentation of data Videotapes
Graphical (diagrams, schemes, graphs, etc..)
Development of a complex database
Development of new methods of multiple criteria analysis
Multiple criteria decision support systems developed for a passive house life cycle and its stages as follows: multiple criteria analysis of a passive house life cycle and its stages, multivariant design and multiple criteria analysis of refurbishment of residential houses, multiple criteria analysis of construction projects, project total quality analysis, multivariant design and multiple criteria analysis of one-family houses
Development of rational micro and macrolevel environment
Determination of rational processes and their constituents parts Brief Design Construc- tion Mainte -nance Realization of purposes of stakeholders (clients, users, designers, economists, contractors, maintenance engineers, passive house material manufacturers, suppliers, contractors, finansing institutions, local government, state and state organisations) involved in the life cycle of a passive house
Rational life cycle of a passive house
Development of rational micro and macrolevel environment
Fig. 1.5. Practical realization of a model for a complex analysis of a passive house life cycle
Alternative passive house life cycle versions include different cost of a plot and a passive house, maintenance costs as well as various architectural, aesthetic, space-planning, comfortability characteristics, infrastructure and environment pollution. Particular stakeholders often have their own preferential rating of these criteria, also giving different values to qualitative characteristics. Besides, designing of a passive house life cycle allows for the development of plenty of the alternative versions of its particular stages. This causes a lot of problems in determining the most efficient project. To overcome these difficulties some complex data bases were developed. They contain a complex description of the alternative versions available in quantitative and conceptual forms. These data taken together can describe the object to be considered in more detail. The application of complex data bases described allows to better satisfy the needs of the parties involved as well as helping to choose an efficient project. A complex data bases consists of the following parts: Initial data bases. These contain the initial data provided by various stakeholders allowing to carry out a complex design of the whole project or its parts. Evaluation data bases, containing comprehensive quantitative and conceptual information provided by stakeholders allowing to get a full description of the alternative variants. Based on the evaluation data bases multiple criteria analysis of a passive house life cycle and its stages is carried out. Multivariant design data bases consisting of comprehensive quantitative and conceptual information about possible combinations of the alternative variants available. These complex data bases can contain data on theoretical and practical experience of the stakeholders, some additional facts as well as the recommendations as to how to avoid previous mistakes. For example, a decision support system using these data bases can help compare the project being designed or executed with the alternative or already realized projects in order to find its disadvantages and provide recommendations as to how to increase its efficiency. In this way, the use of complex data bases enables the user to take into account experts (including passive house owners and users, financing organisations, architects, engineers, manufacturers of passive house materials, contractors, state and its institutions, local governments, etc.) knowledge in various fields and the previous experience gained in developing similar projects applying them to currently developed project. For getting more efficient projects this information should be used at an early stage when the first meeting with a client takes place, which could save from repeating prior mistakes as well as leading to a more advanced and efficient project. In making a complex passive house life cycle design architects, designers, utility engineers, economists, contractors, suppliers, users can more efficiently solve common problems. This results in lower project cost and passive house time, as well as increasing its quality. Interacting with the data bases the user can get more detailed or integral information on the object considered. Given this opportunity and using the data from complex data bases as well as being provided with a decision support system, the user can find an effective project variant in a comparatively short time. In this way, a project best satisfying the needs of the client may be found saving the time of the client and designers. It is quite obvious that to develop and analyse thousands of the alternative variants based on dozens of criteria having each specific values and significances would be hardly possible without the use of computers. Only development of decision support systems could help solve this complicated problem. Therefore, to achieve the above-mentioned aims a multiple criteria decision support system consisting of a data bases, data base management system, a model base, model base management system and the users interface (see Fig. 1.5) was created to be used for a passive house life cycle design and multiple criteria analysis. Micro and macrolevel environment factors having an impact on a passive house life cycle will be discussed in the next sections.
1.5.5. Micro and Macro Factors which Influence the Efficiency of the Construction Industry
In order to assure the efficiency of a project, it should be executed within certain bounds which are determined by the construction environment. The fact is that these factors are different in each country, so also the possibilities for efficient realisation of projects (see Fig. 1.6) will also vary. Figure 1.6 indicates diagrammatically the factors at micro and macro level which may impinge upon the efficiency of the construction. This means that to be efficient the construction must operate within certain boundaries imposed by the micro and macro factors. Recognising that in each country the factors will be different, this diagram will vary accordingly. It is necessary to utilise knowledge and experience about the micro and macro level factors, so as to increase the efficiency level in each country under consideration. This will be done by analysing the worldwide experience, knowledge and best practices and applying this to specific country. Using taxation as an example of this, it can be appreciated that if the level of taxation is high, national firms could either go bankrupt because of increased tax liabilities, or they could decrease efficiency in the face of a lack of competition from international companies who will not attempt to enter the local market. Similarly, if the tax level is lowered, this may cause national firms to lose market share to international companies entering the local market, or to force them to increase efficiency in the face of such competition.
Economic Fiscal Legal Market etc. etc. etc. etc. Boundary of micro factors Boundary of macro factors Boundary of efficiency
Fig. 1.6. Micro and macro factors which influence the efficiency of the construction industry
Such changes in taxation will alter the boundary of efficiency of the construction. Similar construction environment changes can shift this boundary (the area within boundary of efficiency expresses the total satisfaction level of needs of all stakeholders). For example, the specific country government (in order to solve the most important problems for specific country society) may abolish VAT on new residential passive houses in order to promote investment in housing. Thus the boundary of efficiency is extended to include this new development from the former situation. After development of the specific country financial sector the boundary will alter again (Figure 1.7 illustrates a revised level of efficiency as an example of how to take account of these alterations).
Economic Fiscal Legal Market etc. etc. etc. etc. Revised Boundary of macro factors Revised Boundary of micro factors Revised Boundary of Efficiency
Fig. 1.7. Fluctuation of efficient boundary of micro and macro environment
Figure 1.8 graphically illustrates interrelationships between macrolevel factors and the construction. The area inside the ellipse represents the positive action of specific macrolevel factors on the efficiency of the construction. The area outside the ellipse represents the negative effect of the macrolevel factors on the efficiency of the construction. Where the macrolevel factors overlap a better environment for the construction is created. In this case the optimum environment for the construction is when all seven ellipse areas are overlapping (i.e. economic, fiscal, legal and market). The greater the common overlapping area (taking into account the significance of the factors), the greater will be the efficiency level of the construction. Having investigated the effects of the micro and macro variables affecting construction by using best practices, differences have been identified between these and specific country. On the basis of these differences, the main implications for specific country can be identified. Studying only some worldwide experience, knowledge and best practices could lead to any inferences being purely subjective. However, by studying a number of countries any bias can be diminished. In other words, the presence of specific micro and macrolevel variable factors immediately imposes objective limitations on the efficient activities of stakeholders. The stakeholders, in the presence of these objective limitations, try to perform their activities in a more rational way.
Fig.1.8. Determination of optimal, rational and negative environment for the construction industry
Based on the above considerations, it is possible to propose a life cycle process model of an efficient construction industry on the basis of the performed search for a rational variable environment for specific country (i.e. seek to explore ways of harmonising the relationship between the specific country construction in transition and its environment). Upon completion of such a model, the stakeholders by taking into consideration existing limitations of micro and macrolevel environment and existing possibilities, will be able to use their resources in a more rational manner. One of the major tasks of an organization is to carry out its activities under the most favourable micro and macrolevel conditions. Efforts are made to ensure that the structure, goals, output, efficiency and quality of production of the organization would be in maximum conformity with the existing environmental conditions. The pursuit of impracticable goals, for instance, trying to realize projects which surpass the organizations capabilities or the environment (economical, social, legal, political, competitive and technological conditions) is adverse, may cause undesirable consequences. In order to assure the efficiency of a project, it should be executed within certain bounds which are determined by micro and macrolevel factors. These factors are follows.
Macro efficiency level factors
The highest level at which efficiency factors may be considered is the macro efficiency level factors. The level of efficiency and the scope of activities of the construction industry depend on the next macrolevel variable factors: a key economic indicators for the country as a whole, demand, intervention of government, physical infrastructure, financial sector, interest rate, environment issues, unemployment, labour skill level, wages level, insurance, inflation, innovations, exchange rate, unofficial economy, etc. As an example, further on we shall briefly discuss some above mentioned macro efficiency level factors. The government or local authorities stimulate the interest of some private companies in investing in a state sector of economy or in some particular areas. The financial assistance may be in the form of subsidies, grants, benefits, preferential credits, government guarantees of the loan. This economical policy of the state is aimed at cutting unemployment, restoring or developing certain districts of the cities, etc. The effective price for a passive house is not generally its capital cost but includes the cost of servicing the loan for its purchase. The stakeholders involved during the passive house life cycle quickly respond to any changes in monetary policies, especially those concerning the increase of interest rates. In most countries a great deal of construction work is financed from loans. An increase in interest rates leads not only to a drop in demand for passive house products but may also decrease the profitability of construction firms. The growth of interest rates also leads to increasing construction cost and a decrease in the number of contracts. Some firms striving to maintain the number of contracts on account of the profit obtained decrease their construction cost (price). Those which have taken loans may find themselves on the verge of bankruptcy. The conclusion may be drawn that when the monetary policy is aimed at increasing the interest rate and limiting the possibilities of obtaining loans, the demand for passive houses sharply decreases. This, in turn, leads to a decrease of the number of contracts for construction. The economic efficiency of imported passive house products and services is to a large extent dependent on fluctuations in the exchange rate. The specific country construction industry is an importer of metal, fuel and other raw materials. Exchange rate fluctuations cause changes in the costs of passive house materials, the price of passive houses and profits which passive house companies expect to obtain. In these circumstances it is difficult to make exact calculations and prognoses of passive house development. The government by changing construction taxation as well as the structure and volume of its own expenditure (expanding of town reconstruction programmes, housing subsidies and benefits etc.), affects the demand for construction, inflation and other macroeconomic factors. An increase in construction taxation and a curtailment of government expenditure usually tends to lower the demand for construction. And vice versa. Often measures of both types - taxes and government expenditure go hand-in-hand. So, the efficiency of the construction relies very much on Governments fiscal and monetary policy.
Macro Market Economic Fiscal Legal etc. etc. etc. sub-systems sub-systems Competition Demand Supply Market Share etc. etc. etc. sub-systems Demographics Standard of Living Taste/Fashion Changes in Society Population Movements Communication etc. sub-systems sub-systems
Fig. 1.9. Criteria systems and sub-systems characterising macro efficiency level factors
The growth of unemployment causes a fall of GDP and of collected taxes and induces the appearance of other negative economic consequences. Not only the income of population is reduced during unemployment, but social problems get more acute and criminal situation of the country gets worse as well. Besides, there exists a direct connection between unemployment and inflation. Accelerated reduction of unemployment often causes inflation, and rapid jump of unemployment lowers the rate of inflation. In order to give a full assessment of the influence of the above macro factors in influencing the total efficiency of a project, it is necessary to express them through systems of criteria (see Figure 1.9).
Micro efficiency level factors
The second level factors may be considered as the micro level and these depend upon those at the macro level. It is obvious, that in order to design and realize a high-quality passive house project, it is necessary to take care of its efficiency from the initial brief to the end of maintenance. The entire process must be planned and executed taking into account the specific goals of the participating parties. The designing and planning procedure must include multiple criteria optimization, not only of the separate processes and decisions, but also of the whole life cost of the passive house. This must take into account the needs expressed by the parties involved in the project. In order to efficiently design and implement projects in the construction industry, it is necessary to investigate as many of the possible alternative solutions for each variable and to select the most rational one. The selected variables are then combined into one efficient project. Hence, the efficiency of a project will depend to a very great extent not only on the selected variables, but also on micro and macro factors affecting them. The level of efficiency and the scope of activities of the construction industry depend on the next micro variable factors: enterprise restructuring and structural change, sources of company finance, information system of construction, construction employers associations, education and training, types of contracts, briefing process, design process, manufacture process, construction process, maintenance process, facilities management, etc. In order to give an accurate assessment of above mentioned micro efficiency level factors, it is necessary to develop a system of criteria fully describing each of them. For example, the micro level factors characterizing project efficiency will be considered under the type of contract. The type of contract can be selected by taking into account numerous factors which influence its efficiency: owners corporate policy on contracting; availability of in-house experienced personnel; time needed to get the project designed and constructed; desire of owner to control elements of project; importance of cost to owner; amount of risk owner wants to contract out; availability and suitability of contractors; local construction climate; experience of contractor; degree of confidence in contractor; pre-contract period (long, short); consultants (chosen by contractor or employer); sub-contractors (domestic, nominated); valuation of variations (expensive, at cost, cheap). The efficiency of each of above micro factors can also be assessed by a system of criteria adequately describing it. This can be visualised in a similar way to Figure 1.9 which shows systems and sub-systems for the macro level factors.
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