Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155

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Research Paper
Simulation of ecosystem service responses to multiple disturbances
from an earthquake and several typhoons
Li-Chi Chiang
a
, Yu-Pin Lin
b,
, Tao Huang
c
, Dirk S. Schmeller
d,e
, Peter H. Verburg
f
,
Yen-Lan Liu
g
, Tzung-Su Ding
h
a
Department of Civil and Disaster Prevention Engineering, National United University, Taiwan
b
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10617, Taiwan
c
Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taiwan
d
Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz-Center of Environmental Research UFZ, Germany
e
Universit de Toulouse, UPS, INPT, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), France
f
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
g
College of Humanities and Social Science, Taipei Medicine University, Taiwan
h
School of Forest and Resources Conservation, National Taiwan University, Taiwan
h i g h l i g h t s

Multiple disturbances can cumulatively impact ecosystem functioning.

An earthquake had the greatest impact on the ecosystem.

Climate variation had a stronger impact on water yield and soil conservation.

Landscape change had a stronger impact on water purication.

Identication of the sensitive areas enhances an ecosystem management plan.

a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 2 May 2012
Received in revised form18 October 2013
Accepted 28 October 2013
Available online 5 December 2013
Keywords:
Ecosystemservices
Landscape change
Physical disturbance
a b s t r a c t
Ongoing environmental disturbances (e.g., climate variation and anthropogenic activities) alter an
ecosystem gradually over time. Sudden large disturbances (e.g., typhoons and earthquakes) can have
a signicant and immediate impact on landscapes and ecosystem services. This study explored how
precipitation variation (PV) and land use/land cover (LULC) changes caused by multiple disturbances can
cumulatively impact ecosystem functioning in the Chenyulan watershed in central Taiwan. We simulated
four ecosystem services (water yield production, water purication, soil conservation, carbon storage)
and biodiversity using the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model to
analyze the spatiotemporal changes and obtain information regarding changes in the ecosystem. Our
results indicate that the Chi-Chi earthquake had the greatest impact on the ecosystem. Specically, the
ecosystem was altered by the earthquake and could no longer absorb disturbances of a similar magnitude
as before the earthquake. By differentiating the impacts of the PV and LULC changes on ecosystem ser-
vices and biodiversity, we observe that the PV had a stronger impact on water yield and soil conservation,
whereas the LULC change had a stronger impact on water purication. Our results also suggest that a
comprehensive ecosystem management plan should consider the cumulative and hierarchical context
of disturbance regimes to prevent reductions in ecological variability and ecosystem resilience, partic-
ularly in areas that are more sensitive to large disturbances. In this way, ecosystem resilience may be
maintained at a level sufcient to preserve ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services in the event
of unexpected large-scale environmental disturbances.
2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Corresponding author. Tel.: +886 2 3366 3467; fax: +866 2 2368 6980.
E-mail addresses: lchiang@nuu.edu.tw(L.-C. Chiang), yplin@ntu.edu.tw,
yplin@staff.pccu.edu.tw(Y.-P. Lin), jay7753@hotmail.com(T. Huang),
dirk.schmeller@ufz.de (D.S. Schmeller), peter.verburg@vu.nl (P.H. Verburg),
ylliu168@tmu.edu.tw(Y.-L. Liu), ding@ntu.edu.tw(T.-S. Ding).
1. Introduction
Ecosystem services are dened as the manners in which
ecosystems benet humans, e.g., water supply, water regulation,
soil retention, soil accumulation, and carbon storage. A complete
list can be found in de Groot, Wilsonb, and Boumans (2002)
and Mace, Norris, and Fitter (2012). Despite its importance, this
0169-2046/$ see front matter 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2013.10.007
42 L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155
natural capital is inadequately understood, seldommonitored, and
prone to frequent rapid degradation and depletion by multiple
natural and anthropogenic disturbances (Fraterrigo & Rusak, 2008;
Tallis et al., 2011). Degradation and depletion particularly occur
in urbanized and naturally disturbed areas, including areas of
rapid conversion of natural habitat to human-dominated land use.
Turner (2010) posited that changing disturbance regimes in the
short to medium term (years to decades) and in the long term
(centuries) alter landscapes and ecosystemservices.
Several studies have demonstratedthe way inwhichlarge phys-
ical disturbances inuence the structure and functioning of an
ecosystem (Lin, Chu, Wang, Yu, & Wang, 2009; Millward & Kraft,
2004; Sinclair & Byrom, 2006; Turner & Dale, 1998). Lindenmayer,
Likens, and Franklin (2010) found that large natural disturbances
(e.g., wildres, typhoons, and earthquakes) inuence critical eco-
logical processes, includingsediment ows (Nakamura, Swanson, &
Wondzell, 2000), biogeochemical cycles (Houlton et al., 2003), car-
bon sequestration (Running, 2008), and hydrology (Hong, Chu, Lin,
& Deng, 2010). Other large disturbances (e.g., tropical storms and
oods) can alter stream habitats (Chuang, Shieh, Liu, Lin, & Liang,
2008; Wilson, Graham, Pratchett, Jones, & Polunin, 2006), stream
behavior (Fitzsimons &Nishimoto, 1995) andthecommunitystruc-
ture of sh (Power, Matthews, & Stewart, 1985).
Exactly how disturbances inuence the spatial variation of
ecosystemservices across landscapes has seldombeen analyzed. In
addition, the interactionof various disturbance factors (Mori, 2011)
makes it difcult to collect information essential to informland use
and management decisions (Balmford et al., 2002; Nelson et al.,
2009). A previous disturbance can signicantly affect an ecosys-
tems response to a new disturbance (Paine, Tegner, & Johnson,
1998; Turner, 2010), possibly altering the ecosystemresilience fur-
ther. Such resilience is characterized by the ability of an ecosystem
to maintain its structure, function, and feedback after a disturbance
(Cote & Darling, 2010; Spieles, 2010; Walker & Salt, 2006). When
external disturbances exceed the ecosystem resilience, the latter
may be forced to change to a new state with different functions
and structures (Thrush et al., 2009). In a degraded ecosystem, even
a disturbance with a lower magnitude than those the ecosystem
tolerated previously might cause an unexpected sudden change
(Folke et al., 2004; Holling, 1973). As fundamental components
of non-equilibrating ecosystems, hierarchical disturbance regimes
are essential to ecosystem management (Mori, 2011). Despite an
increased understanding of the spatiotemporal variations of a
single or specic landscape, the failure to recognize the cumula-
tive and hierarchical context of disturbance regimes may result
in mismanagement, eventually reducing the ecosystem resilience
(Mori, 2011). Managing and maintaining ecosystem components
and accurate information of their function with respect to the spa-
tial distributionof ecosystemfunctions andservices are essential to
making effective land management decisions (de Groot, Alkemade,
Braat, Hein, &Willemen, 2010; Egohet al., 2007, 2008; vanJaarsveld
et al., 2005). Accurate information can be collected immediately
after a major natural disturbance, making it the most effective
means of identifying the locations and functional roles of key refu-
gia (Lindenmayer et al., 2010).
Taiwan sits on the Philippine plate near the boundary with the
Euro-Asian plate, which explains why plate convergence generates
earthquakes that have disastrous effects on the island (Lin, Liu,
Lee, & Liu, 2006; Lin, Lin, Deng, & Chen, 2008). Earthquakes may
trigger landslides, during which sediments are removed from
slopes and transported by uvial action (Keefer, 1994; Lin et al.,
2008). Moreover, Taiwan is located in a sub-tropical region and
experiences an average of 34 typhoons per year, which deposit
a tremendous amount of rain fromJuly to October. The amount of
rain depends on the size, speed and intensity of the rain-producing
center of a typhoon (Jan & Chen, 2005). These natural disturbances
Earthquake
Anthropogenic
acvity
Sudden
disturbance
Precipitaon
variaon
(PV)
Land use/land
cover (LULC)
change
Ecosystem service (ES) provisioning (i.e. water
yield producon, water puricaon, soil
conservaon, carbon storage) & Biodiversity
Ecosystem funconing
Typhoons
Sudden
disturbance
Gradual
disturbance
Climate
variaon
Gradual
disturbance
Fig. 1. Research approach and objectives of this study.
characterize the structure, function and dynamics of the tropical
and temperate forest ecosystems in Taiwan. Owing to the fre-
quency of earthquakes and typhoons in Taiwan, their frequency
may alter the islands ecosystems andthe services that theyprovide
to the population. Correspondingly, organizations involved in land
planning, disaster management and restoration heavily prioritize
the mapping and assessment of the ways that landscape changes
affect the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem functions and
the services they provide, particularly large-scale changes induced
by large, sequential, physical disturbances.
In this study, we quantied the ecosystemservices in a region of
central Taiwan that is frequently affected by multiple physical dis-
turbances. This study focused primarily on identifying changes in
ecosystem service that occur after multiple disturbances (Fig. 1).
The precipitation variation (PV) and changes in land use/land
cover (LULC) were considered to be key drivers determining the
ability of an ecosystem to provide ecosystem services (ES). Both
drivers are affected by natural disturbances and/or anthropogenic
activities. Therefore, this study provided quantitative estimates
of the changes in ecosystem services caused by cumulative PV
and LULC changes. In addition, hotspots of high habitat quality
and ecosystem service concentration were identied, in addition
to areas that are sensitive to disturbances. The latter are critical
components in ecosystemmanagement. This study also evaluated
howsevere natural disturbances impact ecosystemresilience and,
subsequently, ecosystem functioning and spatial distribution of
ecosystemservices. Furthermore, based on the results of this study,
we recommend areas of future research in land management.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
The Chenyulan watershed is located in Nantou County, central
Taiwan, and encompasses an area of 449km
2
(Fig. 2). This typical
mountaindrainage watershed has a meanaltitude of 1540m, mean
slope of 32

, andrelief intensityof 585m/km. The dominant litholo-

gies in the metamorphic terrain are slates and meta-sandstones
(Lin et al., 2004; Lin, Liu, et al., 2006). The average annual pre-
cipitation ranges from 2000 to 4000mm; and approximately 80%
of the annual rain falls during the Southwest Monsoon season
(May to October). Particularly during the typhoon season (July to
September), short yet intensive periods of rain often trigger land-
slides, causing signicant denudation in the mountainous regions
(Jan & Chen, 2005).
The ways in which large-scale disturbances impact the ecosys-
temwere assessed in this study by collecting SPOT satellite images
taken after each disturbance. The SPOT images were those with
L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155 43
Fig. 2. Location of Taiwan (left-top), Typhoon Toraji (left-bottom), and location of the Chenyulan watershed, local magnitude of the Chi-Chi earthquake and typhoon paths
(right).
Source of local magnitude: Central Weather Bureau. Available at http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/earthquake/damage eq.htm.
Table 1
Typhoons during 19962005.
Typhoon Period Strength Radius (km) Max. wind
speed (m/s)
Herb 07/2908/01, 1996 Strong 350 53
Xiangsane 10/3011/01, 2000 Medium 250 38
Toraji 07/2807/31, 2001 Medium 250 38
Midulle 06/2807/03, 2004 Medium 250 45
Aere 08/2308/26, 2004 Medium 200 38
Matsa 08/0308/06, 2005 Medium 250 40
zero cloud cover obtained from the Space and Remote Sensing
Research Center. In addition, the watershed land cover was clas-
sied using images from(1) November 8, 1996, March 6, 1999, and
October 31, 1999 (i.e., before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake);
and (2) November 27, 2000, September 21, 2001, November 19,
2004, and November 11, 2005 (i.e., before and after Typhoons Herb,
Xiangsane, Toraji, Midulle, Aere and Matsa) (Fig. 3). During classi-
cation of the nal SPOT images, all of the accuracy and kappa values
exceeded 82% and 0.77, respectively (Hong et al., 2010; Lin, Chang,
Wu, Chiang, & Lin, 2006).
2.2. Large-scale natural disturbance events
Several large disturbances impacted central Taiwan from 1996
to 2005 (Fig. 2; Table 1; CWB-TDB, 2013; TTFRI-DBAR, 2000). The
damage caused by Typhoon Herb was more severe than that pro-
duced by any other typhoon over the previous four decades, owing
to the wind speed and the radius of this typhoon (Jan & Chen,
2005). Most of the damage was due to extremely high precipi-
tation, particularly in central Taiwan (Chiang, 1996; Yu & Tuan,
1996), which received approximately 30% of its annual rainfall dur-
ing two days (Jan & Chen, 2005). Typhoon Xiangsane struck the
island in 2000. In 2001, Typhoon Toraji delivered the most intense
rainfall over a short period, with a return period of 300 years
(Cheng, Huang, Wu, Yeh, & Chang, 2005). The heavy rain during
Typhoons Xiangsane and Toraji triggered 100 and 192 debris ows,
respectively, compared to 52 debris ows caused by Herb (Jan &
Chen, 2005). In 2004, two medium-strength typhoons, Midulle and
Aere, caused a similar high number of debris ows (Xiangsne and
Toraji).
On September 21, 1999, the Chi-Chi earthquake (7.3 on the
moment magnitude scale, with a focal depth of 8.0km) was trig-
gered by the reactivation of the Chelungpu fault in central Taiwan.
The epicenter was located at 23.87

N and 120.75

E, near the
Chenyulan watershed in southern Nantou County. This earth-
quake caused surface ruptures along 100kmof the north-trending
Chelungpu fault and triggered 10,000 landslides, which seriously
altered the landscape of the region, particularly near the epicen-
ter. Numerous extension cracks, which accelerated the landslides
during high-rainfall events, also developed on the hillsides.
Forest covers over 75% of the Chenyulan watershed, and cul-
tivated land and grassland cover approximately 10% and 5% of
the watershed, respectively (Table 2). Between 1996 and 2005,
several typhoons and the massive Chi-Chi earthquake of 1999
disturbed the watershed, resulting in large landslide areas. The
typhoons of 1996, 1999, 2001 and 2005 were particularly seri-
ous, as shown in Fig. 3 and Table 2. Since 1996, the forested area
decreased from 351.2km
2
to 332.6km
2
, and the area of riparian
zones declined from 6.3km
2
to 2.3km
2
. Meanwhile, the area of
land under cultivation increased by 46%, from43.5km
2
to 63.9km
2
(Fig. 3).
44 L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155
Fig. 3. Land use/land cover (LULC) distribution in the Chenyulan watershed during 19962005.
Table 2
Land use/land cover (LULC) distribution for various events (km
2
).
1996/11/8 March 99 October 99 2000/11/27 2001/11/20 2004/11/19 2005/11/11
Riparian 6.3 6.5 5.2 2.3 2.2 3.1 2.3
Grass 23.1 19.6 16.6 22.1 27.6 26.9 20.9
Built-up land 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4
Cultivated land 43.5 47.5 48.8 51.7 54.5 61.6 63.9
River sand 8.9 8.7 10.0 12.8 13.0 12.1 12.9
Landslide 13.5 6.8 15.7 9.8 14.5 8.1 13.2
Forest 351.7 358.0 350.7 348.0 334.6 334.2 332.6
L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155 45
2.3. Estimating and mapping ecosystemservices
The 2.1 beta version of the software program Integrated Valua-
tion of EcosystemServices and Tradeoffs (InVEST) was developed by
the Natural Capital Project (Tallis et al., 2011). InVEST consists of a
suite of models that use land use/land cover patterns to estimate
the levels and economic values of ecosystem services, biodiver-
sity conservation, and market value of commodities provided by a
landscape (Nelson et al., 2009). Owing to its focus on the valuation
and visualization of ecosystem services across landscapes, InVEST
is widely used in evaluating ecosystem services at the pixel level
(Goldstein et al., 2012; Nelson et al., 2010). For example, in addi-
tion to analyzing two scenarios of global changes in urban land
and cropland at the pixel level, Nelson et al. (2010) measured how
these changes impacted the ecosystem services and biodiversity.
Goldstein et al. (2012) subsequently evaluated the environmental
and nancial implications of planning scenarios that encompass
contrasting land-use combinations, including biofuel feedstocks,
food crops, forestry, livestock, and residential development. By
using the InVEST model, we examined the changes in the bio-
physical forms of ecosystem services affected by changes in the
landscape pattern caused by disturbances. Water yield production,
water purication (nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) retention), soil
conservation, carbonstorageandhabitat qualityinterms of thebio-
diversity were also simulated. The output from the model at both
the pixel and watershed level was evaluated. Pixel-level calcula-
tions represented the heterogeneity of the key driving factors in
the simulation of ecosystemservices. For example, the key driving
factors for the water yields were the precipitation, evapotrans-
piration and soil type. Calculations at the watershed level were
the sum or average of the pixel-level calculations. Compared to
many large-scale assessments conducted at spatial resolutions of
approximately 1km
2
(e.g., Maes, Paracchini, & Zulian, 2011), the
data resolution in this study was 20m20m, which was sufcient
to allow for an accurate simulation of the ecosystem (Konarska,
Sutton, & Sutton, 2002).
Based on the Reservoir Hydropower Production model of
InVEST, the water yields were calculated as the provisioning
service of an ecosystem. This model was used to calculate the
amount of water contributed by various parts of the landscape.
This model thus provided further insight into the way that changes
in landscape patterns impact the annual surface water yield. In
addition, the water yield of a given pixel was calculated as the dif-
ference between the precipitation and the fraction of precipitation
that underwent evapotranspiration. The evapotranspiration (ET)
partition of the annual water balance was an approximation of the
Budyko curve (Zhang, Dawes, & Walker, 2001), which is a function
of the Budyko dryness index (Budyko, 1974), plant available
water content, average annual precipitation, and a seasonality
factor that represents the amount and distribution of seasonal
rainfall (Tallis et al., 2011). The potential ET was the product of the
reference ET and the plant ET coefcient. Details of the latter can
be found in Allen, Pereira, Raes, and Smith (1998). Based on the soil
texture, the plant-available water content was estimated using the
soilplantairwater (SPAW) computer model (Saxton & Willey,
2006; Saxton, 2006). The InVEST model was used to estimate the
available water content (AWC) as the difference between the eld
capacity and wilting point over the minimum soil depth and root
depth (Tallis et al., 2011). In addition, the plant-available water
content was calculated based on the soil depth. Changes in the land
use/land cover do not affect the AWC. Notably, the precipitation
profoundly impacts the simulation of water yield, and ooding
events can degrade the ecosystemservices. As was assumed in the
study, areas with a higher water yield than the specied threshold
were identied as hotspots that provide an important ecosystem
service in terms of water provisioning.
Using the water purication nutrient retention model of InVEST
(Tallis et al., 2011), we calculatedtheamounts of thenutrients Nand
P retained in each pixel of the watershed. Moreover, a hydrologic
sensitivity score (HSS) was calculated using the simulated annual
average runoff of eachpixel derivedfromthe reservoir hydropower
production module (Tallis et al., 2011). The HSS accounted for dif-
ferences between the eld measurements and model conditions
and was used to adjust the pollutant exports of a given pixel. By
using the digital elevation model (DEM), the InVEST model routed
water down the owpaths and allowed the downstreampixels to
retain pollutant loads, based on the land cover type and efciency
of the land covers pollutant retention (Table 3). In this study, the
annual pollutant loads reported by Huang (2001) were used; these
loads were basedonthe retentionefciency of the modules default
parameters (Tallis et al., 2011). The pollutant load not retained by
a pixel was continuously transported as additional load to the next
(downstream) pixel. The model then aggregated the loads retained
by each pixel and loads exported fromeach pixel to represent the
loads retained and exported at the watershed level, respectively.
Based on the sediment retention model, the average annual soil
loss of a pixel and a pixels ability to retain sediment were also cal-
culated in this study. In addition, the potential soil loss based on
geomorphologic and climatic conditions was calculated by using
the universal soil loss equation (USLE), which is a function of the
rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length, crop/vegetation and
management, and support practice factors (Wischmeier & Smith,
1978). The rst three factors determined the potential soil erosion
in the pixels without vegetation. The last two factors in the USLE
largelydeterminedtheamount of soil erosionthat canbeprevented
by the existing vegetation cover and/or support practices (Table 3).
Vegetation can trap sediment that has eroded fromupstreampix-
els. The scheme usedto simulate the sediment retentionandexport
Table 3
Parameters for simulation of nutrient retention, soil conservation and carbon storage in the InVEST model.
Ecosystemservice Parameters Land use/land cover (LULC) classes
Riparian Grass Built-up land Cultivated land River sand Landslide Forest
Nutrient retention N load (kg/ha) 1 1 3.5 16 3.5 3.5 1.6
N retention efciency (%) 50 50 0 5 0 10 80
P load (kg/ha) 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.25
P retention efciency (%) 50 50 0 5 0 10 80
Soil conservation USLE C 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.1 1 1 0.01
USLE P 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TSS retention efciency (%) 40 40 5 30 5 5 60
Carbon storage C above (Mg/ha) 1 1 0 3 0 1 200
C below(Mg/ha) 1 1 0 2 0 1 130
C soil (Mg/ha) 0 10 0 10 0 10 130
C dead (Mg/ha) 0 0 0 0 0 0 65
Note: C above =carbon in aboveground biomass; C below=carbon in belowground biomass; C dead=carbon in dead organic matter; C soil =carbon in soil.
46 L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155
of each pixel was similar to the nutrient retention model and was
used to estimate the sediment trapping efciency (Table 3). The
USLE crop/vegetation and management factor (C factor) and the
USLE support practice factor (P factor) were determined using the
InVEST database.
Based on the land use map of Tallis et al. (2011), we estimated
the amount of carbon stored in a land pixel by aggregating the
amount of carbon stored in the biomass above and below the
ground and in soil and dead organic matter. The amount of car-
bon stored in various carbon pools was obtained from the IPCC
global database (IPCC, 2006; Table 3). The forested areas contain
the largest carbon pools of any of the land use/land cover types
(Table 3), which explains why changes in those areas may be
expected to reect the change in the total amount of carbon stored
in the watershed.
The InVEST biodiversity model evaluates habitat quality as a
proxy for biodiversity. In particular, the biodiversity was estimated
by analyzing how threats impact the habitat. In this study, culti-
vated lands, highways, built-up areas and landslides were viewed
as threats, and riparian zones, forested areas, and grassland were
viewed as habitats. The model estimates the impact of threats to
habitats based on the relative impact of each threat, the relative
sensitivity of each habitat type to each threat, and the distance
between the habitat and threat (Tallis et al., 2011; Table 4). The
impact of a threat diminished with the distance between the habi-
tat and threat. The relationship between the distance-decay rate
of a threat and the maximum effective distance of the threat can
be modeled in a linear or an exponential manner. In this study, an
exponential rate of decrease was selected. The level of protection
fromdisturbances (e.g., social and physical boundaries) may be an
additional landscape factor that can mitigate the way that threats
impact habitats. In addition to considering this threat by account-
ing for the accessibility to the sources of degradation, we assumed
that each pixel had complete accessibility. First, the InVEST model
calculated the degradation score of each pixel. The model then con-
verted this score to a habitat quality value between 0 and 1, with 1
as the best possible habitat quality, i.e., a high level of biodiversity.
Spatiotemporal hotspots of ecosystem services were deter-
mined based on the methods of Egoh et al. (2008) and Bai, Zhuang,
Ouyang, Zheng, and Jiang (2011). Hotspot areas were those that
provided a large amount of a single service and those that provided
a large number of various services. Single-service hotspots were
those areas with the highest 20% of a provision value (level) among
the pixels for each service (Bai et al., 2011). In this study, ecosystem
serviceshabitat quality (ES-HQ) richness hotspots were dened
as the areas of overlap of at least three ES hotspots. The thresh-
old baseline of a hotspot was dened using the data from 1996.
Hotspots of ecosystemservices were identied using the data from
subsequent years. Based on the hotspots of habitat quality and ve
ecosystem services (i.e., water yield, N, P and sediment retention,
and carbon storage), we developed a map of ES-HQ richness by
superimposing the six hotspot maps. In the hotspot map, a range of
06 represented the number of hotspots of an ecosystemservice or
the habitat quality that a location can provide. Ahigh value implied
more ecosystem services or a better habitat quality provided by
the location. In addition, a value of 0 implied that the provision of
all considered ecosystem services and habitat quality was lower
than the threshold value. The changes in ES-HQ richness over time
were evaluatedbasedonthe weightedaverage richness, whichwas
calculated using the equation
R =

7
i=1
R
i
N
i

7
i=1
N
i
where R is the weighted average ES-HQ richness, R
i
is the ES-HQ
richness of land use i, and N
i
is the number of pixels of land use i.
Table 4
Parameters used for simulation of habitat quality in the InVEST model.
Max. distance
of impact to
habitats
Relative impact
to threats
Sensitivity of
habitat to threats
Riparian Grass Forest
Cultivated lands 4 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7
Highway 2 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
Built-up land 5 1 0.5 0.5 0.8
Landslide 1 1 1 1 1
Source: Polasky, Nelson, Pennington, and Johnson (2011).
The LULC changes represented the combined impact of natu-
ral disturbances and human activities (Fig. 3). In the mountainous
forested area, the inuence of anthropogenic activities on land
use change was relatively low. In addition, human activities were
assumed to have a negligible impact on the habitat quality, which
is in contrast with the enormous impact of the sudden, intense
natural disturbances during the 8-month period from March to
October 1999 and the 4-year period from 2001 to 2004. The LULC
changes identied after the seven major disturbances were viewed
as the cumulative impact of the earthquake and typhoons and not
human activity. Moreover, the spatiotemporal precipitation varia-
tion (PV) during the study period was caused by climate variation
and typhoons.
Owing to the close correlation between the temporal variabil-
ity in ecological phenomena and climatic variability, the extent to
whichthe climate may affect disturbance regimes andthe resulting
diverse ecosystemresponses must be examined (Mori, 2011). The
land use/land cover and annual precipitation in 1996 were selected
as the baseline in this study. The year 1996 is assumed to represent
a valid baseline time, owing to fewer environmental disturbances
and lower cumulative impacts than those of the subsequent years
covered by this study. We also differentiated between the way
PV and LULC changes impacted ecosystem services by model-
ing the ecosystem services for each year separately against the
1996-baseline and the corresponding climatic conditions. Because
precipitation affected only the water-related ecosystem services
(i.e., water yield, water purication and soil conservation), carbon
storage and habitat quality were not included in the simulations
with the baseline climate data (precipitation). The changes in the
ES-HQ richness in any year after 1996 compared with the baseline
indicate the cumulative combined impact of PV and LULC changes
on the ecosystemin that year. Therefore, the cumulative individual
impact of PV on an ecosystemwas calculated under the same land
use/land cover conditions of the difference between simulated ES-
HQ richness with the corresponding annual precipitation and that
with the 1996 precipitation. In addition, the cumulative individual
impact of LULC changes on the ecosystemwas calculated based on
the difference between simulated ES-HQ richness under any LULC
condition and that under the LULC conditions of 1996.
3. Results
3.1. Estimating and mapping ecosystemservices and habitat
quality
The changes in the hotspot areas of each ecosystem service
and the level of habitat quality simulated under the correspond-
ing climate and baseline climate conditions displayed remarkable
differences between 1996 and 2005 (Fig. 4). During these years, the
average annual precipitationincreasedfrom2694mmto 4072mm,
resulting in greater water yields. Specically, the annual water
yield increased from 886millionm
3
in 1996 to 1.496billionm
3
in 2005. The lowest annual precipitation was 2414mm in 1999.
L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155 47
Fig. 4. Hotspot (%) for each ecosystemservice and habitat quality during 19962005.
Although the hotspot area increased from 19.6% in 1996 to 98.2%
in 2005, the change before 2001 was comparatively small. How-
ever, the increasing annual precipitation after 2001 resulted in
the expansion of the hotspot area from 30.8% in 2001 to 98.2%
in 2005. Moreover, the precipitation and simulated water yield
increased by 51% and 69%, respectively, between 1996 and 2005.
Duringthat period, thewater yieldincreasedfrom88,096,300m
3
to
89,216,700m
3
, and the hotspot area increased from18.9% to 21.4%
(Figs. 4 and 5).
The trend in nitrogen retention was similar to that of the water
yield. The N retention increased from 119,428kg to 140,397kg,
and the hotspot area increased from 15.8% to 17.3% between
1996 and 2005. During the same period, the annual rate of P
retention in the watershed ranged from 10,865kg to 11,304kg,
and the export of P ranged from 1312kg to 1959kg. More-
over, the annual rate of P retention was higher in October 1999
than in 1996 and higher in 2005 than in 2004 (Fig. 4). Fur-
thermore, the hotspot area remained stable between 2000 and
2005.
Under the baseline climatic conditions, the sediment reten-
tion hotspot area changed only slightly between 1996 and 2005
(Fig. 4). However, under the corresponding climatic conditions,
the hotspot area increased signicantly during the following peri-
ods: 1996 to March 1999, 2000 to 2001 and 2004 to 2005.
48 L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155
Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of water yield hotspot (primary hotspot under baseline climate condition; secondary hotspot under corresponding climate condition).
Notably, the sediment retention rate in 2001 was the highest
during the simulation period, being 74% higher than in 1996.
This difference was due to the higher rainfall erosivity index (R)
in 2001. Larger hotspot areas were observed in October 1999,
owing to a higher number of landslides. The larger hotspot
areas observed in 2001 and 2005 were caused by the combined
impact of a larger number of landslides and greater precipitation
(Fig. 4).
The impact of the climate on the spatial distribution of the sed-
iment retention hotspots was observed between March 1999 and
2005 (Fig. 6). The sediment hotspot area under the 2000 climatic
conditions was very close to the area under the 1996 conditions.
In 2001, the hotspot of sediment retention expanded to 84.2% of
the entire watershed. Therefore, the hotspot area under the corre-
sponding climatic condition increased to 56.1% and 54.7% of the
entire watershed in March and October 1999, respectively. This
area also increased from43.5% in 2001 to 84.2% in 2005.
Between 1996 and 2005, the forested area decreased from
351.7km
2
to 332.6km
2
, the amount of storedcarbondeclinedfrom
18.6to17.6milliontons, andthe hotspot area decreasedfrom78.6%
L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155 49
Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of sediment retention hotspot (primary hotspot under baseline climate condition; secondary hotspot under corresponding climate condition).
to 74.1%. The change in the carbon storage capacity during the sim-
ulation period was generally smaller than the changes in the other
ecosystemservices. This difference is due to the fact that the forest
is the major land cover in the watershed; in addition, the change
in the forested area was relatively small (78.374%). However, the
gradual decrease in the forested area after 1996 led to a decline
in the habitat quality score from 0.71 in 1996 to 0.61 in 2005.
Owing to the increasing number of landslides in the southwestern
portion of the watershed in October 1999, 2001 and 2005, the areas
that could have provided ecosystemservices were smaller than in
March 1999, 2000 and 2004, respectively. Therefore, despite the
decrease in the number of hotspot (high number of ESs) areas since
1996, the changes were more pronounced in March 1999, 2000 and
2004 (Fig. 4).
3.2. Impact of precipitation variation (PV) on ecosystemservices
Comparing the water yield with the 1996 baseline climate con-
dition revealed a 6.513.4% decrease in the water yield before 2001
and a 4.467.8% increase after 2001, with the highest water yield
in 2005. This water yield trend reects the changes in the pre-
cipitation. Compared to 1996, the annual precipitation decreased
50 L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155
Fig. 7. Land use/land cover (LULC), precipitation variation (PV) and combined impacts on ES during March 19992005.
by 6.310.4% before 2001 and increased by 7.351.2% after 2001.
Unlike the extent to which the PV signicantly impacted the water
yield, the climate only slightly impacted the N and P retention. The
changes rangedbetween0.1and0.6%for Nretentionandbetween
0 and 0.3% for P retention (Fig. 7).
When the baseline climatic conditions were used to assess the
N retention, the trend of hotspot areas in terms of the N reten-
tion between 1996 and 2005 was observed to be similar to that of
the corresponding climatic conditions. This nding suggests that
the variations in the climate only slightly impacted the Nretention
(Fig. 4). The hotspot area of P retention accounted for 13.614.4%
of the watershed (Fig. 4). Notably, our results suggest only a slight
impact of PV on the N and P retention (Fig. 7). Meanwhile, the PV
signicantly impacted the sediment retention, with retention rates
ranging from5.5% in 2000 to 76.3% in 2001 (Fig. 7). The PV was pri-
marily affected by the rainfall erosivity index, which was the most
important factor in determining the sediment retention. The trend
of the PV impact on sediment retention fromMarch 1999 to 2005
was similar to that of PV impact on the sediment export. Both the
retention and export ranged between 5.5 and 76.3%.
L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155 51
Fig. 8. Distribution of ES-HQ richness in 1996 and difference in ES-HQ richness due to land use/land cover (LULC) change.
3.3. Impact of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on ecosystem
services and habitat quality
The LULC changes impacted the water yield less than did the
changes in the PV yet had a greater impact than the PV in terms
of the nutrient retention and export. The N retention increased by
1.9 to 17.7%, owing to the LULC increase and the increase in cul-
tivated land (Table 2). This increase was largely due to the fact
that the cultivated land contained more N (Table 3), resulting in
greater N retention. The increasing impact of the LULC changes on
the Nretention between 1996 and 2005 was similar to the trend in
the N retention hotspots (Figs. 4 and 7). The LULC changes slightly
impacted the P retention, which ranged between 2.1 and 1.8%.
The N and P retention rates declined from 87.8% to 84.3%, and
from 89.4% to 85.8%, respectively, during the period 19962005.
LULC explained nutrient export but less nutrient retention.
Similarly, the LULC trend explained the sediment export but not
its retention. In addition, the LULC impacted the sediment export
more than the sediment retention. The watershed retained 96.7
to 98.3% of the total sediment losses, which was greater than its
capacity to retain the nutrient losses of 82.288.5%. The impact of
the climate and LULC on the sediment export was similar, indi-
cating that they both play a major role in the sediment export.
The cumulative impact of the LULC and climatic change on the
amount of sediment exported was twice as high in 2001 as in 1996
(Fig. 7).
3.4. Identication of potential protection areas based on ES-HQ
richness
Based on the hotspot areas of ve ecosystem services and the
habitat quality under various climatic conditions, we calculated
52 L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155
Table 5
Distribution of ES-HQ richness and weighted-average ES-HQ richness under corresponding and baseline climate conditions.
ES-HQ richness 1996 March 99 October 99 2000 2001 2004 2005
(a) Under corresponding climate condition
0 2926 3300 3475 3873 525 2308 100
1 18750 12373 12848 17475 6672 10831 6051
2 12307 15227 15348 11738 18161 15029 13107
3 7520 9985 9145 8188 13311 11360 13859
4 2230 2495 2615 2377 4157 3450 8231
5 603 1013 967 688 1466 1300 2257
6 29 9 4 63 111 120 772
Average ES-HQ richness 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.4 2.2 2.8
(b) Under baseline climate condition
0 2926 2783 3053 3132 3607 3651 3861
1 18750 18566 19254 19043 19127 18768 18545
2 12307 12678 12044 12357 12414 12729 12582
3 7520 7611 7249 7236 6727 6744 6826
4 2230 2158 2206 2096 2034 2049 2110
5 603 554 547 487 452 425 437
6 29 27 24 26 16 11 16
Average ES-HQ richness 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
the ES-HQ richness to identify areas that may benet fromecosys-
temprotection (Table 5). According to these results, the weighted
ES-HQ richness under the corresponding climatic conditions
gradually increased from 1.8 to 2.8, indicating that the water-
shed provided more ES-HQ hotspots following large disturbances
(Table 5(a)). However, the ES-HQ richness decreased compared
to the baseline climatic condition (Table 5(b)). This nding indi-
cates that the changes in land cover induced by the typhoons
and the Chi-Chi earthquake during the study period negatively
impactedthe ecosystems functions andthe provisionof ecosystem
services.
We also identied how and where the degradation occurred
due to the LULC changes. Based on the results shown in Table 5(b),
the area-weighted ES-HQ richness was similar to the baseline cli-
mate condition for all years; in addition, the locations of various
ES-HQrichness values that anarea canprovide were similar. There-
fore, only the ES-HQ richness distribution for 1996 was presented
(Fig. 8). Those areas containing more than three hotspot types
were areas warranting additional protection. The ES-HQ richness
appeared to be relatively stable (white colored) over time in most
of the areas of the watershed. The differences in the ES-HQ rich-
ness in any sequential year was between 7 and 12% (green and
red colors denote decreased and increased ES-HQ richness), and
these changes occurred primarily in grassland, cultivated land and
forested areas (Figs. 8 and 9). In the areas that are sensitive to large
disturbances, converting grassland and cultivated land to forest
may increase the ES-HQ richness of such areas. However, the ES-
HQ richness could decrease when an area of forest is converted to
grassland or cultivated land or is forcibly removed with landslide
movement. Under the baseline climatic conditions, the ecosystem
displayedonly slight uctuations inthe ES-HQrichness. Incontrast,
under the corresponding climatic conditions, the ES-HQ richness
increased signicantly after 2000 due to typhoons of similar mag-
nitudes and spatial characteristics (Tables 1 and 5(a)).
4. Discussions
4.1. Impacts of disturbances on ecosystemservices
Given the forecasts of increased disturbances (both in num-
ber and frequency) related to climate change (e.g., Emanuel, 2005;
Lindenmayer et al., 2010; Westerling, Hidalgo, Cayan, & Swetnam,
2006), the capacity to initiate rapid, post-disturbance studies of
ecosystems should be improved. This study involved an evalua-
tion of how changes in the PV and LULC, as caused by multiple
disturbances, impacted ecosystem functioning. Based on our
results, the PVimpacted the water yield and soil conservationmore
than did the LULC changes, whereas the latter impacted the nutri-
ent retention more. With regard to sediment retention, the hotspot
areas were larger in October 1999 (i.e., after the Chi-Chi earth-
quake) than in March 1999. This difference was due to the fact
that the upstream landslides generated larger volumes of sedi-
ment thandidthe downstreamforestedareas, whichthus retaining
more sediment. However, sediment retention at the watershed
outlet was low in October 1999, indicating that the disturbance
caused by the earthquake degraded the ecosystemin terms of sed-
iment conservation. When the impacts of the typhoons and the
earthquake were combined, the impact on sediment conservation
due to landscape changes was concealed by the impact of greater
precipitation, whichincreasedthetotal amount of sediment. There-
fore, the amounts of sediment retention at the watershed outlet
in 2001 and 2005 were greater than those in 2000 and 2004,
respectively. The increases in N and P losses were more stable
after October 1999 than the variation in precipitation and water
yields. This difference was likely due to the fact that the Chi-
Chi earthquake more signicantly impacted the landscape than
the typhoons that followed. Although climatic variations signi-
cantly impacted the water yield and sediment retention, the LULC
changes more signicantly impacted the other ecosystem ser-
vices.
According to our results, the cumulative impacts of the distur-
bances were not everywhere obvious across the entire landscape.
The ecosystem services were impacted by climatic variations
and anthropogenic changes to land use/land cover in the area
(Swift et al., 1998). The average annual precipitation signicantly
impacted the water yield. Our comparison of the nutrient and
sediment retention rates revealed that the earthquake signi-
cantlyimpactedecosystemservices. Before the Chi-Chi earthquake,
typhoons only slightly impacted the N and P retention rates.
However, after the earthquake, typhoons with various paths and
magnitudes affected the landscape patterns in various ways (also
see Lin, Chang, et al., 2006). The N and P retention rates declined
more in 2001 than in 2000 because Typhoon Toraji (2001) affected
the landscape patterns and variations more than did Typhoon
Xangsane (2000) (Lin, Chang, et al., 2006). The increase in the
retention rates after the earthquake demonstrates the cumulative
impact of the earthquake and typhoons. In addition, the mag-
nitudes and paths of the typhoons and the land use/land cover
affected the cumulative impacts of the disturbances (Lin, Chang,
et al., 2006).
L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155 53
Fig. 9. Difference (%) in ES-HQ richness grouped by different types of land use/land
cover (LULC) change between 2000 and 2001 (notes: 1, riparian; 2, grass; 3, built-up
land; 4, cultivated land; 5, river sand; 6, landslide; 7, forest).
4.2. Impacts on ecosystemresilience
The state of the ecosystem in the study area was represented
by the ES-HQ richness, which was an indication of the number of
ecosystem services operating at high levels in an area (Table 5).
While open and heterogeneous in many regions, ecosystems are
usually in a non-equilibrium state (Phillips, 2004; Wallington,
Hobbs, & Moore, 2005). Thus, disturbances, particularly infrequent
large disturbances, profoundly impact a dynamic non-equilibrium
system(Moore et al., 2009; Phillips, 2004). Such landscapes never
achieve a steady state (Romme & Despain, 1989; Turner & Romme,
1994). Although conservation managers may often seek a dynamic
equilibrium in ecosystems, most terrestrial vegetation systems
are dynamic because climatic instability prevents establishment
of an equilibrium state (Mori, 2011). Under the baseline climatic
condition, the state of the ecosystem uctuated only slightly in
terms of its ES-HQ richness (Table 5(b)). In contrast, under the
corresponding climatic conditions, the ES-HQ richness increased
signicantly after 2000 following typhoons of certain magnitudes
and spatial characteristics (Tables 1 and 5(a)). Before the earth-
quake, theES-HQrichness was lower yet relativelystable. However,
the Chi-Chi earthquake resulted in a more complex ecosystemwith
a higher diversity and greater spatial variations. Our results con-
rm the results of Lin, Chang, et al. (2006), who found that the
typhoons and earthquake increased the complexity of the land
cover in terms of a more scattered landscape pattern after 2000.
The changes in the ES-HQ richness indicate that the earthquake
and various other disturbances may have reduced the ecosystems
resilience. Consequently, the ecosystem cannot tolerate distur-
bances of such magnitudes, whereas previously it may have been
able to maintain the former equilibrium before the severe distur-
bances occurred (Folke et al., 2004; Holling, 1973). Notably, the
subsequent typhoons impacted the ecosystem less than did the
earthquake.
4.3. Land use management and strategies
The analysis of a range of spatial indicators can help to identify
areas that provide abundant or rare value types of ecosystemser-
vices, a diverse set of value types, or areas where community values
are at risk (Raymond et al., 2009). For example, the Joint Research
Centre (JRC) of the European Commission suggested that nitrogen
retention (%) be used as an indicator of water quality regulation
services; in addition, the capacity of an ecosystems functioning
in climate regulation should be assessed using its carbon stor-
age capacity (Maes et al., 2011; Nelson et al., 2009). Moreover,
Maes, Paracchini, Zulian, Dunbar, and Alkemade (2012) mapped
9 ecosystemservices by using 10 spatial indicators. Value-specic
management can then be applied to such areas. Based on our anal-
ysis, we believe that rich hotspot areas and areas that are sensitive
to disturbances require additional protection to maintain ecosys-
tem services in the future. The results of our analysis indicate
that investment should be directed toward forested lands in the
western and southern parts of the watershed, where Mount Ali
and Jade Mountain National Parks are located. We recommend
that management should focus on enhancing water and biologic
assets to produce a range of ecosystem services. Given that those
areas were the most resilient to the multiple environmental distur-
bances experienced recently, their resilience should be enhanced
by restoring the key structural, compositional, and functional char-
acteristics of the vegetation systems, thereby mitigating ecosystem
degradation induced by disturbances. In addition to the areas that
provide high levels of ecosystemservices, the areas that displayed
sensitivity to the natural disturbances (e.g., forested land) should
receive greater attention. Forest restorationinnatural reserve areas
should avoid, or at least reduce human disturbances to, possibly
altering the natural cycle of forest succession (Huang, 1999; Xi,
Chen, & Chu, 2012). Protection can be provided by developing a
new infrastructure to prevent future disasters (Yu & Chen, 2009).
Because most of the forests inTaiwanare locatedat highelevations,
the Taiwan Forestry Bureau (TFB) suggested that slopes should be
stabilized by restoring slope land; in addition, a re-planting plan
should be the primary strategy for post-disaster rejuvenation (TFB,
2009). Although the identied areas focus on the protection of
the ve ecosystem services of concern and habitat quality, this
evaluation method provides an alternative way to place into oper-
ation the concept of ecosystemservices for sustainable ecosystem
management. Additional evaluation of prospective services is thus
warranted in land use planning related to additional ecosystem
services (e.g., cultural services).
5. Conclusions
Given the forecasts of increased disturbances (both in num-
ber and frequency) related to climate change (e.g., Emanuel, 2005;
Lindenmayer et al., 2010; Westerling et al., 2006), the ability to
initiate rapid, post-disturbance studies of ecosystems should be
improved. In this study, we evaluated the manner in which pre-
cipitation variation (PV) and land use/land cover (LULC) changes
induced by multiple disturbances affected the functioning of an
ecosystem. Based on our results, although the PV impacted the
water yield and soil conservation than did changes in the LULC,
the latter impacted the nutrient retention more.
Protection and appropriate management of selected areas can
accelerate the recovery of ecosystemservices and biodiversity and
reduce the brunt of environmental disturbances (Cote & Darling,
2010). Without a strategic selection of such protected areas, the
species in those areas will most likely be limited to weedy and
disturbance-tolerant general species that may not preserve ecosys-
tem services and functions (Cote & Darling, 2010). Given the
dynamic andnon-equilibriumnature of the ecosystem, the changes
inES-HQrichness indicatethenon-equilibriumstates of theecosys-
tem due to the degradation of ecosystem resilience, particularly
after the Chi-Chi earthquake. To facilitate future ecosystem man-
agement, we recommended using the ES-HQ richness as an index
to identify areas that provide at least three ecosystem services
and/or habitat quality and areas that are sensitive to large physical
disturbances. Closely examining the spatial relationships between
scientically assessed ecosystem services and local priorities can
identify hotspots of value alignment and conict. Although the
identied areas warranting protection were intended to comprise
only the ve ecosystemservices of concern and habitat quality, the
evaluation method presented in this study provides an alternative
54 L.-C. Chiang et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 122 (2014) 4155
means of taking into account the concept of ecosystemservices for
sustainable ecosystemmanagement.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the National Science Coun-
cil of the Republic of China, Taiwan, for nancially supporting
this research under Contracts Nos. NSC 100-2410-H-002-196-MY3
and 101-2923-I-002-001-MY2, and the European Commission (EC)
under the 7th Framework Programme, for nancially supporting
this research under the SCALES projects (No. 226852).
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