Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Average =
2.102
Source: International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance (2000‐01 to 2007‐08).
*Vietnam 2004 White Paper.
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Estimates of Vietnam’s Defence Budget, 2004‐2007 (USD billion)
Source: Australia, Defence Intelligence Organisation (DIO), Defence Economic Trends in Asia‐Pacific
(2008); International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), Military Balance (2001‐02‐2007‐08); and
Vietnam, Ministry of National Defence, White Paper (2009).
Because Vietnam has not made its defence expenditure public before, foreign
analysts have used estimates provided by the International Institute of Strategic
Studies (IISS) and Australia’s Defence Intelligence Organisation (DIO). Generally IISS
estimates are higher than the DIO’s. Nevertheless, both the IISS and DIO claim that
Vietnam is spending just over five percent of GDP or double Vietnam’s publicly
announced figure.
It is impossible for outside analysts to know which sets of figures are more accurate
until the methodology used to calculate defence expenditure is made public. A
further complication is that both IISS and DIO use United States dollars while
Vietnam uses the dong.
Q2. ‐ What is the meaning of this announcement of white paper ‐ is it timed to any of
the ongoing events?
Vietnam’s two previous White Papers were issued six years apart. The first came out
in 1998 and the second in 2004. This suggests that the current White Paper may
have been brought forward by a year. The purpose of a White Paper is to set out a
country’s strategic appreciation and future policies. While Vietnam is at pains to
downplay friction with China in the South China Sea, this White Paper does highlight
Vietnamese concerns. It also draws attention to the disparity in resources between
Vietnam and China. A previous White Paper termed the South China Sea a hot spot.
The current White Paper may be seen as part of a wider diplomatic campaign to
draw international attention to the South China Sea and underscore Vietnam’s
peaceful approach towards resolving conflicting territorial claims. This approach is to
put China on the back foot.
Q3. ‐ What do you think is most important in the white paper?
The most important aspect of the White Paper is the step up in the level of
transparency, not only in the defence budget, but across a range of topics and issues.
A recent study by researchers at the U.S. National Defense University revealed that
Vietnam’s defence White Paper is the least transparent of all Southeast Asian states
that produce White Papers, and also less transparent that China’s White Paper. This
has put Vietnam in an awkward position in the public relations stakes. The current
White Paper goes some way in redressing this.
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Q4. ‐ Any thoughts on the upcoming visit by Phung Quang Thanh to the United
States?
Last year Vietnam and the United States initiated a strategic dialogue and the
forthcoming visit by Defence Minister Phung Quang Thanh is one of the outcomes.
His visit will be in reciprocation for the visit by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in
2006. The timing could not be better as Vietnam searches for international support
to curb Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. The United States has been
pressing Vietnam to step up the level of defence cooperation in a number of areas,
such as US assistance to train Vietnamese peacekeepers to serve under the United
Nations. The US is also pressing for a cross servicing access agreement. The
Vietnamese want US restrictions on the sale of military equipment to be eased. They
also want more forthright US assistance to address the legacy of Agent Orange.
On the surface General Thanh’s visit will be a carefully choreographed event. There
will be no outward sign that Vietnam and the United States are combining to contain
China. But beneath the surface both sides know that any step up in bilateral defence
relations will be read that way in Beijing.
[client name deleted], December 9th:
QUESTION: Have you heard about Vietnam’ White Paper on national defense? There
is one thing I really don’t understand: Vietnam often does not want to make public
information relating to national defense, or security, but this time, Vietnam makes
several things transparent in the White Paper. Why did they do that? Is it a move
that should be welcomed?
Vietnam’s defense minister Phung Quang Thanh will visit the Pentagon from
December 13‐18; do you know what will be discussed? Do you think there will be
breakthrough moves in the military relation between the US and Vietnam following
Thanh’s visit? Are there anything relating to the release of White Paper with Thanh’s
visit to the US?
RESPONSE
Q1. Have you heard about Vietnam’ White Paper on national defense? There is one
thing I really don’t understand: Vietnam often does not want to make public
information relating to national defense, or security, but this time, Vietnam makes
several things transparent in the White Paper. Why did they do that? Is it a move
that should be welcomed?
ANSWER: Vietnam is a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum or ARF. The ARF has
been pressing for confidence building and transparency measures for over a decade.
One of these is the regular publication of a defence White Paper. Vietnam produced
two White Paper in the past, one in 1998 and the other in 2004. These papers
marked a major step forward in transparency on the part of the normally secretive
Ministry of National Defence. In 2004, for example, the White Paper claimed that
Vietnam spent 2.5 percent of its GDP on defence.
A recent study by researchers at the U.S. National Defense University revealed that if
you compare all the White Papers produced in Southeast and Northeast Asia,
Vietnam ranks at the bottom in terms of transparency, especially on defence
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expenditure. The 2009 White Paper provides for the first time figures on defence
expenditure for the years 2005 to 2008. The standard western references to Vietnam
only provide figures up to 2007.
Vietnam’s defence establishment is growing more sophisticated as a result of
defence diplomacy and the posting of Defence Attaches abroad. Vietnam has
learned that much information it considers secret is freely available outside Vietnam.
Vietnam has also learned that there is much incorrect information available as well.
Vietnam is responding to the norms promoted by the ARF to be more transparent in
defence matters. And Vietnam is now playing a more sophisticated game in
providing information. After all, China produces far superior and detailed White
Papers, why shouldn’t Vietnam?
White Papers can be used to signal Vietnam’s strategic concerns and future policies.
The present White Paper, for example, stresses Vietnam’s desire for a peaceful
resolution of issues related to the South China Sea. But this also has the effect of
raising this matter to the attention to the international community.
Q2. Vietnam’s defense minister Phung Quang Thanh will visit the Pentagon from
December 13‐18; do you know what will be discussed? Do you think there will be
breakthrough moves in the military relation between the US and Vietnam following
Thanh’s visit? Are there anything relating to the release of White Paper with Thanh’s
visit to the US?
ANSWER: Minister Phung Quang Thanh’s visit to the United States is a belated
reciprocal visit of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s trip to Hanoi in 2006. It is
also follows the first strategic dialogue between Hanoi and Washington held in late
2008. The initiation of the strategic dialogue is the more important of the two
events. It signals Vietnam’s willingness to advance the bilateral defence relationship
after a long period of going slow.
Vietnam is inherently cautious. In my opinion there will be progress but not a
breakthrough. There are some leaders in Vietnam who are concerned about moving
too closely to the United States. But there are also leaders in Vietnam who see the
benefit of developing a comprehensive or all‐round relationship including defence
ties.
The United States is pressing Vietnam to become more involved in cooperative
activities such as US support for Vietnamese involvement in peacekeeping and a
cross service access agreement that would allow the regular visit to Vietnam of US
naval ships and military aircraft. Under the terms of this agreement Vietnam would
provide specified services, such a fuel, to support such visits. The US would like to
see some joint activities by the military forces. Cooperation at sea is one area.
Vietnam would like to see the US lift some of the current restrictions on access to US
military technology and equipment. This would bring practical results to Vietnam.
But Vietnam would also be seeking from the United States more direct assistance in
addressing the legacy of war left by Agent Orange.
Vietnam’s Defence Spending (Billion US Dollars), 2004‐07
Vietnam’s Defence Budget as a Percentage of GDP, 2004‐08
DIO = Australia, Defence Intelligence Organisation figures for 2007 only; IISS =
International Institute of Strategic Studies figures to 2007 only; and MND = Vietnam,
Ministry of National Defence.