M E M O R A N D U M

TO: ANDY TOBIN FOR CONGRESS

NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE
FROM: DAVE SACKETT
RE: A SURVEY OF VOTER ATTITUDES IN ARIZONAS FIRST CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT
DATE: SEPTEMBER 5, 2014
________________________________________________________________________
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present Andy Tobin for Congress and the National
Republican Congressional Committee with the key findings from a survey of voter
attitudes in Arizonas
st
Congressional !istrict" These key findings are based on
telephone interviews with N#$%& 'likely( registered voters throughout the district"
Responses to this survey were gathered )eptember *+$, *%$ and the margin of error
associated with a sample of this type is - $"./ in .& out of %% cases"
KEY FINDINGS
Republican nominee Andy Tobin holds a substantial -0 point lead over !emocratic
incumbent Ann 1irkpatrick on a trial ballot test for Congress" 2ifty+one percent
3&/4 of district voters indicate they would vote for Tobin, while forty+three percent
3$5/4 indicate they would vote for 1irkpatrick, and si6 percent 37/4 are undecided
on the ballot test"
The tight nature of the Republican primary election has not had any impact on the
general election, and Republicans in the district are firmly united behind Tobin, as he
stands with eighty+nine percent 30./4 of the vote among Republican voters" Tobin
The Tarrance Group Arizona CD 1 (September, 2014)
201 N Union Street, Suite 410
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
(703) 684-6688
(703) 836-8256 A!
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also has a -8 advantage on the ballot test among 9ndependents" There is also a
significant amount of partisan cross+over on the ballot, with Tobin getting 0/ of the
vote among registered !emocrats"
Tobin is :uite well established with district voters already and has seventy percent
38%/4 soft name 9! and a solid "0 to favorable to unfavorable ratio"
Congresswoman 1irkpatrick, on the other hand has substantial negatives already and
her favorable to unfavorable ratio is only " to "
The Tarrance Group Arizona CD 1 (September, 2014)
The political environment in the district is substantially different from that which
e6isted in )eptember, *%*" ;resident <bamas =ob approval is a net +5 points
weaker now that it was in *%* and fifty+seven percent 3&8/4 indicate they
disapprove of the =ob he is doing 3including &7/ of 9ndependent voters"4
The generic congressional ballot is also a net -8 points stronger now than it was in
)eptember, *%* and Republicans have a -0 point advantage on the generic ballot for
Congress" The Republican advantage on the generic ballot has increased from -5 in
*%* to - now"
Congresswoman 1irkpatricks soft re+elect suffers from both the negative views that
district voters have of ;resident <bama and the anti+incumbent sentiment that e6ists
in the district" <nly thirty+five percent 35&/4 of district voters believe that she has
done a good enough =ob to deserve re+election, while fifty+three percent 3&5/4
indicate they believe it is time for a new person"
> > >
K! D"#$%&'()*+:
Race? @hite 87"7/
African American "*/
AispanicBCatino %"0/
Native American 7"*/
;arty? Republican 5&"./
!emocrat 50"$/
9ndependent *&"8/
The Tarrance Group Arizona CD 1 (September, 2014)