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Introduction Geostatistics
for
Mineral Deposit
Presented by
Bosta Pratama
M AusIMM, M MGEI
Senior Consultant Perth Western Australia
Agenda
08.00 08.30 : Introduction and Overview
08.30 10.00 : Sampling
10.00 10.15 : Break 1
10.15 11.45 : Geostatistics part 1
11.45 12.45 : Lunch Break
12.45 14.45 : Geostatistics part 2
14.45 15.00 : Break 2
15.00 16.00 : Estimations
16.00 17.00 : Discussion
OVERVIEW
Historical Perspective
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Geostatistics Definition :
A branch of applied statistics which deals with spatially
distributed data
What is :
A set of mathematical tools that can be use for :
DATA ANALYSIS SPATIAL MODELLING
CHARACTERIZATION OF UNCERTAINTY RISK ANALYSIS
Why is :
1. It bridges descriptive information and engineering
analysis
2. Provides means for a sound scientific/engineering basis
for remediation planning
3. Allows for the incorporation of qualitative and
quantitative data
QUALITATIVES :
1. Geology Maps
2. Structural information
3. Expert opinions
QUANTITATIVES :
1. Sample
2. Indirect measurements
Geostatistics must not be:
Considered as a Mathematical tool which can do anything
Used at all costs
Used by the ill informed Beware of Instant Experts
Geostatistics consists of two words:
Geo
Statistics
Remember that Geo comes before Statistics
Understand your data
Understand the geology and what controls what
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SAMPLING
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In practice the squared difference between
duplicate samples can never be reduced to zero.
The squared difference is a measure of the
dispersion or spread of sampling errors.
Gy calls this the variance of the Fundamental
Sampling Error (or FSE).
Gys Sampling Theory allows us to calculate/
quantify the FSE.
Unless the size of the sample is equal to the size of the lot,
we will incur a non-zero sampling variance.
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The sampling nomograph is a graphical
tool which enables visualisation of
sampling protocols
The nomograph is derived by taking the
logarithms of both sides of Gys formula,
giving us
Sampling Nomographs

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#
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C
A
Sampling lines
derived from:

2
=Kd

/M 470xd
1.5
/M
Final Sample:

2
=22.48xd
-3

R
=15%
10tonne round
Unknown Size
Comminution
step
(ie. vertical line)
Sub-sampling
or mass reduction
step

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1
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#
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1
0 -3

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(G
)
=

2
(
E
)
-
8
.7
x
1
0 -3
C
A
Sampling lines
derived from:

2
=Kd

/M 470xd
1.5
/M
Final Sample:

2
=22.48xd
-3

R
=15%
10tonne round
Unknown Size
Comminution
step
(ie. vertical line)
Sub-sampling
or mass reduction
step
Sampling Nomographs
Comments
Sampling theory is very powerful
Butthe Bongarcon modification is
strongly advised for gold
If you are involved in setting up a
sampling programme or defining sampling
protocols, application of Gys formula is
strongly recommended.
What does Sampling Theory not apply to?
The Sampling Theory does NOT directly
assist us with questions regarding:
Drilling practice and sample recovery
Drill spacing and drill density
Grouping and segregation errors
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GEOSTATISTICS 1
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GEOSTATISTICS 2
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Established from the equation:
(h) = (f(x) f(x+h))
2
/ 2n
Where: f(x) is the value of the first sample
f(x+h) is the value of the second sample of
distance h from f(x)
n is the number of sample pairs
(h) is the semi-variance
The semi-variogram can be plotted as a graph by plotting
(h) against distance h
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ESTIMATIONS
Numerous methods of resource estimation are available:
Geological Methods
Nearest Neighbour
Polygonal Methods
Triangular Methods
Random Stratified Grids
Inverse Distance Weighting
Trend Surface
Kriging
All have good aspects and equally bad aspects
Linear Estimation
Basics:
Method usually done as a check on most resource models
Area is divided into a series of polygons, centred upon an individual
point by the bisectors of lines drawn between sample points
Average grade assigned to polygon is that of the central sample
Assumptions:
Similar to geological method
Problems:
Each polygon of different area
Estimate based upon a single sample
Spurious high grade sample/sampling errors can have large impact
Shape of polygon dictated by data, not geology
Polygonal method
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Basics:
Method became very popular with the introduction of the computer
Involves a large number of calculations
Deposit is divided into a series of blocks or panels and the value of
each one determined from the set of surrounding data values. The
weight applied to each one is dependent upon distance from the block
Samples closest to the block have the largest weights, the farthest
samples the lowest weights
Assumptions:
Data positions are well known
A mathematical function can be applied
Problems:
How many samples do you use?
How do I select my samples?
What power do I use?
Inverse Distance method
The Basic idea is to estimate the attribute value (say, porosity) at a location
where we do not know the true value
where u refers to a location, Z*(u) is an estimate at location u, there are n
data values and
i
refer to weights.
What factors could be considered in assigning the weights?
- closeness to the location being estimated
- redundancy between the data values
- anisotropic continuity (preferential direction)
- magnitude of continuity / variability
Weighted Linear Estimator
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( ) ( )
n
i i
i
Z Z

=
=

u u
There are three equations to determine the three
weights:
In matrix notation: (Recall that )
1 2 3
1 2 3
1 2 3
(1,1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (0,1)
(2,1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (0, 2)
(3,1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (0, 3)
C C C C
C C C C
C C C C



+ + =
+ + =
+ + =
( ) (0) ( ) C C = h h
1
2
3
(1 1) (1 2) (1 3) (0 1)
(2 1) (2 2) (2 3) (0 2)
(3 1) (3 2) (3 3) (0 3)
C C C C
C C C C
C C C C

, , , ,

, , , = ,

, , , ,

Weighted Linear Estimator
Simple kriging with a zero nugget effect and an isotropic spherical variogram
with three different ranges:
0.000 0.000 0.000 1
0.001 -0.027 0.648 5
0.065 0.012 0.781 Range=10

3

1
Kriging
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Simple kriging with an isotropic spherical variogram with a range of 10 distance
units and three different nugget effects:
0.000 0.000 0.000 100%
0.053 0.130 0.172 75%
0.064 0.203 0.468 25%
0.065 0.012 0.781 Nugget=0%

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Kriging Kriging
Multiple Indicator Kriging (MIK)
Uniform Conditioning (UC)
Non Linear Estimation Recoverable Resources
Recoverable Resources is a term used in geostatistics
to denote that the portion of in-situ resources that are
recovered during mining.
Recoverable Resources can be defined on a global or
local basis.
Global: estimated for the whole field of interest.
e.g. estimation for the entire domain (or a large well-
defined subset of the domain like an entire bench).
Local: recoverable resources on a panel/panel basis
(see later).
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The objective of looking at indicator variograms was to
get an idea of the continuity of grade at different cut offs.
Indicators are binary transforms of a variable into values
of 1 or 0, depending on whether the variable is above or
below a threshold or cutoff. Indicator variograms can be
used as tools on capturing pattern of spatial continuity
for that particular cutoff and since an indicator variable is
either 0 or 1, indicator variograms do not suffer from the
adverse effects of erratic outliers and usually behave
fairly well (Isaaks and Srivastava, 1990).
Multiple Indicator Kriging
Steps:
1. Split distribution into classes (cut-offs);
2. Transform grades to 1s and 0s;
3. Krige indicators;
4. Estimate distribution within Panels;
5. Effect Change of Support; and
6. Calculate tonnage and grade for each cut-off.
Multiple Indicator Kriging
Kriging indicators with multiple cut-offs assumes that
each cut-off is spatially independent from the next.
For example, Indicators at 0.6 are independent
(spatially uncorrelated) to Indicators at 0.7!
The indicators are (generally) not independent Order
relation problems (similar to initial lithology problem).
The ideal solution is:
a) model a single variogram that is proportional or
b) model variograms and cross variograms.
Multiple Indicator Kriging
Uniform Conditioning (UC) is a variation of Gaussian
Disjunctive Kriging (DK).
UC aims at deriving the local conditional distributions
of SMUs.
Method considers the grade of the panel as known.
Assumes a diffusive model for grade distribution (and
a few other assumptions).
Uniform Conditioning
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Steps:
1. Estimate panel (OK, MIK, IDW OK usually);
2. (In Gaussian Space) Calculate (global) change
of support coefficients for SMU and panel; and
3. Calculate Tonnage (proportion) and Metal
using panel grade and change of support
coefficients. Back calculate grades.
Uniform Conditioning
SIMULATIONS
Simulation Estimation. The simulation is usually
made on the point data scale. Simulation of blocks is
also possible.
Simulations reproduce sample histogram and
variogram, with the assumption that these fully
describes the sample population.
Conditional simulations also honour the data
(when we do point simulation). Hence conditional
Grade profile
"Distance"
"
G
r
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e
"
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Grade profile
"Distance"
"
G
r
a
d
e
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Grade profile
"Distance"
"
G
r
a
d
e
"
Estimate: a path through each sample that Estimate: a path through each sample that minimises minimises
the distance (=error) to the distance (=error) to unsampled unsampled true values true values
Grade profile
"Distance"
"
G
r
a
d
e
"
Less precision Less precision but but
Reproduction of Reproduction of variabilty variabilty
A: Kriging
B: Non-Conditional Simulation
C: Conditional Simulation
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Gaussian Related Algorithms
LU decomposition
Sequential Gaussian
Truncated Gaussian
Turning Band
Conditional Simulation
Indicator Based Algorithms
Appropriate for categorical (discrete) and
continuous variables
Sequential algorithm (SIS)
Suffers from the usual drawbacks: complex
structural analysis, order-relationship problems
Conditional Simulation
Conditional Simulation example
QUESTIONS ???
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TERIMA KASIH