M E M O R A N D U M

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: GLEN BOLGER/J IM HOBART
RE: NEW HAMPSHIRE STATEWIDE SURVEY KEY FINDINGS
DATE: SEPTEMBER 4, 2014
Methodology
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a statewide survey of 500 likely voters in New Hampshire on behalf
of American Crossroads. Eighty percent (80%) of interviews were conducted with landline respondents
and 20% were conducted with cell phone only respondents. Landline interviews were completed August
27-28, and the cell phone interviews were completed August 27-28, 31, and September 1st. The survey
has a margin of error of +4.38% in 95 out of 100 cases.
Key Findings
1. The political environment in New Hampshire is very problematic for Democrats.
Only 25% of New Hampshire voters say things in the country are headed in the right direction,
while 67% say they are off the wrong track. The Presidents approval rating is also underwater in
the state, with 40% saying they approve of the job Barack Obama is doing, compared to 57% who
disapprove. Intensity is strongly against the President, with a scant 17% saying they strongly
approve of the job he is doing, while 44% say they strongly disapprove.
2. Both Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen have polarized images.
Candidates for U.S. Senate Scott Brown and J eanne Shaheen both have universal name ID in
New Hampshire and their images with Granite State voters are rather mixed. Browns image sits
at 42% favorable/41% unfavorable, while Shaheens is at 49% favorable/44% unfavorable. In the
Boston media market that dominates the state, the candidates images are remarkably similar,
with Brown at 45% fav/40% unfav and Shaheen at 49% fav/44% unfav.
3 Brown trails Shaheen by just three points on the Senate ballot.
The Senate race in New Hampshire is tight, with Brown only three points behind Shaheen
(41% Brown/44% Shaheen). Libertarian candidate Gardner Goldsmith garners 9% of the vote and
6% of voters are undecided. By intensity, Brown has the narrowest of advantages, as 32% of
voters say they will definitely vote for Brown, compared to 31% who are definitely voting for
Shaheen.
NH Key Findings Memo
September 4, 2014
Page two of two
4. More than half of voters describe Jeanne Shaheen as a liberal.
When asked if they would describe J eanne Shaheen as a conservative, moderate, or liberal, a
majority (55%) of voters described her as liberal, with 33% saying Shaheen is very liberal. This
makes Shaheen ideologically out of step with the state she represents, as only 21% of New
Hampshire voters describe themselves as liberal.
5. There is no doubt that this race has tightened considerably.
The last three public released surveys in this race have all pegged Shaheens lead as being in the
low to mid single digits.
Polling Firm/ Survey Sponsor Dates Ballot Advantage
UNH/WMUR (non-partisan) 8/7-8/17 44% Brown/
46% Shaheen
+2 Shaheen
PPP/League of Conservation
Voters (Democratic)
8/27-8/28 44% Brown
50% Shaheen
+6 Shaheen
Public Opinion
Strategies/American
Crossroads (Republican)
8/27-28 &
8/31-9/1
41% Brown/
44% Shaheen^
+3 Shaheen
^The Public Opinion Strategies survey was the only one of the three listed to include the
Libertarian candidate on the ballot test.
The race has tightened for three reasons:
The political environment in New Hampshire is very challenging for Democrats. The
Granite State might not be Arkansas or Louisiana, but the right direction/wrong track and
Presidential approval numbers are very similar to those in North Carolina, Colorado, and
Iowa.
There is no daylight between Jeanne Shaheen and President Obama. While other
incumbent Democratic Senators have attempted to put some distance between themselves
and the President, Shaheen has done nothing of the sort and her record of voting with the
President 99% of the time is a significant problem for her.
New Hampshire is still very much a swing state. While some of the states where
Republicans are competing have not sent a Republican Senator to Washington in more
than a decade, Kelly Ayotte won a Senate election in New Hampshire by 23 points just
four years ago. New Hampshire is far from unfriendly terrain for Republican statewide
candidates.
The Bottom Line
J eanne Shaheen still leads Scott Brown in the race for U.S. Senate, but that lead is quickly shrinking.
Over the course of the next two months, Shaheen is going to be forced to defend her liberal voting record
that is in lock step with an unpopular President. Being forced to defend that record could easily further
jeopardize Shaheens seat in the Senate.