D8 THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 2014 /// THE ENQUIRER

Dalton pursued assistance working

with quarterback mechanics guru
Tom House in the offseason. The
quarterback handled the pressure of
his new contract, of returning to a
locker room where his three straight
turnovers against San Diego helped
bury their best shot at a playoff win,
of taking on the role as spokesman
and leader of the team.
By all accounts, Daltons passed
every offseason test and the building
believes in his progress, work ethic.
Theres no fighting the numbers,
though. If a quarterback with three
playoff appearances couldnt win or
play near well enough to make it hap-
pen, feel free to point out somebody
who set a precedent of shaking off
those types of struggles to capture a
Super Bowl.
Of the last 12 Super Bowl-winning
quarterbacks with at least three play-
off runs (omitting Trent Dilfer in 2000
and Russell Wilson last year), only
three endured a losing record in those
first three playoff runs (John Elway,
Peyton Manning and Brad Johnson).
Elway fought the cant win the big
one tag his entire career until Terrell
Davis helped push his Broncos over
the hump twice.
Manning went three-and-out just
as Dalton and the Bengals, but that
trend didnt disappear even as he
developed into one of the great quar-
terbacks of all-time. The only reason
he doesnt unanimously own the title
is but for going one-and-done in the
postseason eight of 13 trips.
Almost unnecessary to mention,
but to put Dalton on the skill level of
Elway and Manning would be unfair
to him and an insult to those legends.
It appears, statistically, when a
quarterback is capable of winning a
Super Bowl. those numbers expose
themselves in the first three years as
much as the rest of the career. To
expect a dramatic spike would at the
very least defy significant odds.
Those 12 QBs (and Daltons)
winning percentage in the first three
years: 48-29 (62 percent).
Winning percentage rest of ca-
reer: 70-45 (61 percent).
Many different factors go into
wins and losses beyond quarterback
play, obviously. So taking a deeper
look at the actual performance re-
gardless of outcome would be neces-
sary. What are the chances to see a
significant playoff spike beyond
three years in individual perfor-
mance?
The best advanced statistic to ac-
count for all aspects of quarterback
play is Adjusted Yards/Attempt. The
number takes interceptions, touch-
downs and yards into account for
every time dropping back to throw.
Using that number as a barometer,
the same 12 Super Bowl winning quar-
terbacks experienced a jump of 6.84
to 7.52 between their first three sea-
sons and the rest of their careers.
Those looking for hope can peer
across the division to Joe Flacco.
While he won at least one game in
each of his first three playoff appear-
ances, it was his rapid ascension in
his fourth season that drove Balti-
more to the Super Bowl.
Eli Mannings numbers should be
noted in that they took a dramatic rise
the Bengals hope for from Dalton,
only after two playoff seasons. The
Giants 2007 Super Bowl run came
after Manning was winless with a 2.98
AY/A.
Drew Brees name occasionally
comes up when looking for a Dalton
precedent. The former second round
pick saw a spike from 57 percent
completion to 65 percent completion
between his second and third season.
Yet, even while going 1-2 in his first
three playoff games he posted an
AY/A of 7.53 while throwing five
touchdowns to two picks.
The problem being, Daltons poor
3.80 AY/A sits far below any quarter-
back on this list. In the modern era, a
definitive baseline exists for how
good a quarterback must play in these
early years, even if counting on a
spike. Dalton would be breaking new
ground if he could make the jump.
Do these numbers mean Dalton
wont be capable of putting together a
run like his October Player of the
Month, only in January? No. Do these
numbers mean he will continue to
post awful stats and throw intercep-
tions in every playoff opportunity?
Absolutely not.
These statistics only prove looking
for a significant spike three years and
three empty playoff runs into his
career would be considered unlikely.
Criticism and detractors arent
new. Dalton fought the court of public
opinion since being drafted 35th over-
all out of TCU in 2011. Debate over his
contract grew into a constant trend-
ing topic this year on the offseason
sports talk show circuit. The negativ-
ity over his postseasons followed.
The Bengals believe Dalton will
prove those doubters wrong. They
literally put money on it. Now its up
to Dalton to carry out the $96 million
bet placed squarely on Red 14 and hit
a postseason jackpot.
With each passing season, the pres-
sure mounts. The biggest question of
the 2014 Bengals is if Dalton can han-
dle it. m
AP
Dalton: Numbers not in his favor
Continued from Page D3