849

N A N O T E C H N O L O G Y
Prospects and policies
Per Anders Hansson
Practical applications of nanotechnology vary greatly; in some areas such
as electronics and mi cromachi ni ng the nanoscale is readily accessed. In
others, f or example biology, t he promise is great but so are the technical
problems t hat are t o be overcome. This arti cl e outlines the prospects and
examines how the devel opment of nanotechnology wi l l depend on
government policies.
The t er m ' nanot ec hnol ogy ' has been used at least si nce 1974 by Tani guchi . 1
It nor mal l y means t echnol ogy wi t h di mensi ons, and t ol er ances in t he range
of 0. 1- 100 nm- ~f r om t he size of an at om t o t he wavel engt h of l i ght (see
Fi gure 1).
At t he Chr i st mas 1959 meet i ng of t he Amer i can Physical Soci ety, Ri chard
P. Feynman gave a t al k t hat cl ai med t her e was ' pl ent y of r oom at t he
bot t om' . Her e, Feynman said, ' I n t he year 2000, when t hey l ook back at t hi s
age, t hey wi l l wo n d e r wh y it was not unt i l 1960 t hat anybody began t o
ser i ousl y move in t hi s di r ect i on' . 2
In 1983, Forrest Car t er , t he pi oneer of nanocomput i ng, pr edi ct ed f r om
t r ends t hat , ' mi cr oel ect r oni c f abr i cat i on woul d i nt er sect t he mol ecul ar -
nanomet r e ( nano = 10 -9) ar ound 2020 AD' . ~
The scanni ng t unnel l i ng mi cr oscope (STM) devel oped by IBM Zur i ch in
1982 pr ovi ded t he mi ssi ng l i nk t o Feynman' s pr oposal . The i mmedi at e
i mpl i cat i ons of nanot echnol ogy are STM ext ensi ons l i ke t i ps and STM-der-
ived t ool s as possi bl e Feynman machi nes. Field i on mi cr oscopes, f or
exampl e, make it possi bl e t o i mage di r ect l y si ngl e at oms on metal surfaces
and t o exami ne t hei r pr oper t i es. As t he i nt egr at ed ci r cui t s began t o get
bel ow or der s of 3 nm, and oper at i on at t he necessary cr yogeni c t em-
per at ur es became a pr obl em, ser i ous act i vi t y began. Nanoel ect r oni cs f ound
a compani on in nanosensor s, an exampl e of whi c h is Ford' s si l i con capaci t-
ive absol ut e pr essur e sensor (SCAP). Mi c r omac hi ni ng was al so maki ng
pr ogr ess in r educi ng mechani cal i mper f ect i ons in magnet i c data st orage
systems and aer o engi nes, t o name but a f ew. Finally, mol ecul ar el ect r oni cs
appear ed as a subj ect c ombi ni ng materi al s and el ect r oni cs at t he mol ecul ar
level.
Dr Per Anders Hansson is editor-in-chief of Nanobiology, Department of Medical Electronics, St
Bartholomew's Hospital, West Smithfield, London EC1A 7BE, UK.
FUTURES October 1 9 9 1 0016-3287/080849-11 (~) 1991 Butterworth-Heinemann Ltd
8 5 0 Nanot echnol ogy: prospect s and pol i ci es
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Thi s pr ogr ess, t oget her wi t h mol ecul ar bi ol ogy, l ed gover nment s in t he
mid-1980s t o consi der what , if anyt hi ng, nanot echnol ogy coul d cont r i but e t o
f ut ur e success in t echnol ogi cal compet i t i on.
Aspects of nanoscale possibilities
As wi t h any new subj ect , super i or i t y in nanot echnol ogy is a dynami c state
r equi r i ng access t o a vari et y of speci al i zed resources and f i nanci al suppor t .
Nanoscal e possi bi l i t i es are j ust i f i ed by t he advancement of bot h t ech-
nol ogy and f undament al physi cs. The gr eat er oper at i onal (or devi ce) pot en-
tial of nanot echnol ogy is of f set by t he subst ant i al l y gr eat er demands on
pr esent levels of t echnol ogy, pr eci si on etc, and in t he under st andi ng of t he
management pr i nci pl es of quant um obj ect s. Several unsubst ant i at ed cl ai ms
have al ready been ci r cul at i ng, such as a cell repai r r obot i c system t hat has
been t est ed in Japan pr ol ongi ng t he life of mi ce by 50% as compar ed t o
cont r ol cases.
F U T U R E S Oc t o b e r 1 9 9 1
Nanot echnol ogy: prospect s and pol i ci es 851
Thi s earl y ment i on of medi cal appl i cat i ons suggests t hat bi omedi ci ne
wi l l be a l arge area of nanot echnol ogy. In fact, a new concept cal l ed
nanobi ol ogy is t aki ng r oot i nvol vi ng bi ol ogi cal f unct i onal uni t s on t he
nanoscal e. However , several war ni ngs shoul d be i ssued in t hi s respect . First,
it has t aken genet i c engi neer i ng far l onger t o become est abl i shed t han its
pr oponent s assumed. Second, nanot echnol ogi es wi l l have t o compet e wi t h
many est abl i shed met hods such as x-ray di f f r act i on and neut r on scat t eri ng.
Finally, t he i ni ti al cost of mani pul at i on, at om by at om, is l i kel y t o be hi gh.
Thi s f i nanci al const r ai nt may lead t he processes i nvol ved f r om mani pul at i on
t o t he bui l di ng of devi ces wi t h t he capaci ty f or sel f -repai r, and not aim at
appl i cat i ons in t he cont empor ar y chemi cal mani pul at i on market .
Wi t h t he emer gence of mol ecul ar agr i cul t ur e (such as f er ment i ng cr ops
f r om si ngl e cells) on t he hor i zon, it can be assumed t hat nanot echnol ogy
has l i t t l e t o of f er in a number of aspects of bi ot echnol ogy. However , one
subj ect t hat is pot ent i al l y al ready of great i mpor t ance in bi ot echnol ogy is
t he use of in situ devi ces f or t he moni t or i ng of ecol ogi cal systems based on
nanobi ol ogy. As such, it of f ers a new symbi osi s in evol ut i on si mi l ar t o t hat
of mi t ochondr i a f or mi ng t he pr esent ani mal cel l , or even as vi ruses oper at -
i ng as a t hi r d sex gene t r ansf er mechani sm. Both Japan and t he USSR have
i nt egr at ed much of t hei r wo r k on nanot echnol ogy wi t h pr ogr ammes on
bi ocomput i ng. Comput i ng and ' supr a- mol ecul es' ( whi ch have a si mi l ar i t y
wi t h cel l or ganel l es) are t he cor ner st ones of Japan's nanot echnol ogy pr o-
gr amme. Anot her earl y area f or cl ai ms has been t he f i el d of space. In Mar ch
1981, CBS quot ed a NASA r epr esent at i ve as st at i ng t hat wi t hi n 20 years
sel f - r epl i cat i ng r obot s wo u l d t r ansf or m space expl or at i on by under t aki ng
space-based pr oduc t i on f aci l i t i es wi t h o u t r i ski ng human life.
It is safe t o say t hat t he great est appl i cat i ons of nanot echnol ogy wi l l be
t hose t hat we cannot even envi sage at pr esent . The rel at ed subj ect of
c omput er pr ogr ammi ng, an i nf or mat i on sci ence in i tsel f, wi l l have syner-
gi st i c effects on nanot echnol ogy. Si mpl y consi der wh e t h e r t her e are l i mi t s
t o assembl i ng and pr ocessi ng i nf or mat i on due t o devi ce const r uct i on and
size!
Electronics on the nanoscale
At t he most general level, t wo gr oups of nanoscal e devi ces exi st - - r educed-
scale convent i onal devi ces and t hose based on quant um effects. In t he
f or mer , t he el ect r ons (or hol es) are classical part i cl es, t he el ect r on coher -
ence l engt h bei ng smal l er t han t he mi ni mum devi ce di mensi ons. The i ssue
of waves and part i cl es is embedded in t he pr ospect s of nanot echnol ogy.
Loui s de Brogl i e f or mul at ed a r el at i on t hat connect ed t he t wo concept s: t he
associ ated par t i cl e wavel engt h is Pl anck' s const ant di vi ded by t he par t i cl e' s
moment um. 4 Thi s so-cal l ed de Brogl i e wavel engt h is very small f or classical
obj ect s and de Brogl i e' s r el at i on means t hat we can onl y obser ve t he wave
phenomena if t he obser vat i on devi ce is of t he same or der as t he wavel engt h
of t he obj ect .
The need n o w is char act er i zat i on, si nce nanoscal e obj ect s wi l l onl y be
used when advantages are gai ned at system level. The advantage can ei t her
be a r educt i on in costs or an emphasi s bei ng pl aced on pr ogr ammes ai mi ng
at new hi gher - per f or mance devi ces.
FUTURES October 1991
852 Nanotechnology: prospects and policies
For the quantum effect device, the wave nature of the electron is
essential to the performance. Thus at least one device di mensi on is
comparable t o the de Broglie wavel ength, typi cal l y smaller than the coher-
ence length. It is generally assumed that scaled conventi onal devices
become offset by parasitic effects bel ow 100 nm. The present compl ex
semi conductors are therefore movi ng towards quantum effect devices wi t h
mi ni mum structures of 10 nm--l ess than 100 atoms.
Fabrication here involves growi ng the substrate materials and patterni ng
the structures. STM has been discussed as a possible tool , but the alternat-
ives of ion beam l i thography and x-ray l i thography are making progress, as
is optical l i thography. The machines used for electron beam l i thography are
similar to the scanning electron microscope and it can be said that the
i nvent i on of scanning i nstruments enabled the breakthrough for nanotech-
nology.
Nanostructures are also used for optical as well as el ectroni c applica-
ti ons, an example being that of ' quantum dots' . The dri ver here is to
achieve compl ete band structure of optical absorpti on as a f unct i on of
frequency. This woul d make it possible t o construct a quant um-dot laser,
bri ngi ng the semi conductor laser closer to the operati on of present gas
lasers. Unfortunatel y, the temperature of operati on is in the order of
mi l l i -kel vi ns (0 C = 273.15 kelvins), so it wi l l take some devel opment before
silicon chips are overtaken by semi conductors on the quantum-mechanical
scale.
Na n o p h a s e mat er i al s
Nanophase particles range from 1 nm t o 100 nm and are studi ed at a
number of industrial laboratories in the form of ceramics, composites and
metals. Among the aims of current research are ceramics that display a
degree of duct i l i t y (at low temperatures), materials that show non-l i near
response to l i ght (frequency doubl i ng) etc. Such materials are likely t o
increase in i mportance but wi l l hardly be the basis of the reshaping of
i ndustry that the nanotechnol ogy advocates are predi cti ng. This is especially
so since even the US company, General Electric, the worl d leader in
advanced materials, is not generating large economi c returns from this
work. It is therefore to the potenti al of its biological possi bi l i ti es that
nanotechnol ogi es are t urni ng.
Dr e x l e r ' s vi si on
In his book, Engi nes o f Cr eat i on, 5 Drexl er out l i ned t wo generations of
nanomachines. The first woul d use free ribosomes and DNA/RNA amino-
acids based on molecular bi ol ogy. The second woul d use a control l ed
arrangement, but not onl y in the form of cellular systems. These nano-
machines are based on the ideas of Richard Dawkins or Darwi ni an rules in
the form of selfish repl i cati ng systems. In fact, Drexler states that ' to ignore
the selfishness of replicators is t o lulled by a dangerous i l l usi on' . 6 This
should be due to evol ut i onary pressures.
It has been argued that Drexler' s defence against nanoreplicators is t oo
ant hropocent ri c--t hat nanolife wi l l lead to a nano-takeover. 7 Thus, are
FUTURES October 1991
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Nanot echnol ogy: prospects and pol i ci es 853
humans t he end of cr eat i on or are humans a mer e i nt er medi at e step? I do
not di scuss t hi s i ssue here. However , Dr exl er suggests t hat nanodevi ces wi l l
n o t i nvol ve quant um effects. I nst ead, he argues t hat repai r can onl y wo r k
on st r uct ur e. 8 Thi s leads t o bi ostasi s of bi ost r uct ur e, especi al l y brai n pr ot ei n
pat t er ns, and di scussi ons on h o w pr eser vat i on of bi ost r uct ur es at l i qui d
ni t r ogen t emper at ur es can go on f or cent ur i es.
The dr eam hel d by some nanoent husi ast s t hat , wi t h t hi s t echnol ogy we
humans wi l l never di e, but si mpl y be pl aced in cr yogeni c st orage t o awai t
al l - heal i ng nanomachi nes, resonat es wi t h age-ol d human desi res. Cel l sys-
t em r epai r is not t he onl y posi t i ve appl i cat i on of nanot echnol ogy envi saged
by Dr ex l er - - he specul at es on eco-syst em repai r, among ot her s. The abuse,
r egar ded by Dr exl er as much mor e seri ous t han t hat of nucl ear weapons
and bi ot echnol ogy, coul d be handl ed by active shi el ds wi t h speci f i c tasks.
As stated above, t hi s has been r egar ded as t oo si mpl e if t he devi ces are
real l y sel fi sh.
Since a t ur bi ne wi t h t eet h t he size of red bl ood cel l s has been
const r uct ed by t he Uni ver si t y of Cal i f or ni a and t ongs and gears t he size of a
fl ea have been const r uct ed by AT&T Bell Labs, it may not be t oo earl y t o
di scuss nanor obot s. As a f or um f or such debat e, Dr exl er has set up t he
For esi ght I nst i t ut e in Cal i f or ni a, and t he f i rst conf er ence on t he pot ent i al
consequences of nanot echnol ogy was hel d in 1989 wi t h t he next in
November 1991, under t he headi ng ' Towar ds mol ecul ar cont r ol ' . Robot
maki ng has, except in Japan, yet t o del i ver pr of i t s. The US mar ket in 1990
was less t han $500 mi l l i on, 9 agai nst t he 1983 pr edi ct i on of $2 bi l l i on. Part of
t hi s is t he wel l k nown Japanese l ong- t er m vi ew, but it is al so t hat t he
shor t age of wor ker s makes Japan mor e r obot - dense. In 1988, t wo- t hi r ds of
an est i mat ed 256000 i ndust r i al r obot s in 16 i ndust r i al i zed states wer e in
Japan. 1 Yaskawa even oper at es a f act or y usi ng r obot s t o assembl e r obot s.
The quest i on is wh e t h e r nanot echnol ogy wi l l resul t in a change as
st rat egi c as t he pr eci si on ser vo- el ect r i c mot or s of t he late 1970s, a subst i t ut -
i ng f or expensi ve hydr aul i c systems, as a new f or m of manuf act ur i ng.
T h e f a c t o r y i n t h e d a r k
Manuf act ur i ng is changi ng:
All of this is evidence that the traditional computer business is being displaced by a
new industry, wi th which it has little in common, as surely as the traditional Swiss
watch making industry was brushed aside by Japanese electronic timepiece manufac-
turers. 11
The essence of t hi s is t hat t he semi conduct or pr oducer s and sof t war e
houses are packagi ng c ombi ned pr oduct s and, in shor t , t hi s combi nat i on is
what nanot echnol ogy is an ext ensi on of , because t he nanot echnol ogy
devi ce sof t war e is i nt egr at ed in t he har dwar e.
The answer t o wh o wi l l t ake t he lead pr obabl y lies bet ween I BM and
t he Japanese mai nf r ame manuf act ur er s Fuj i tsu, Hi t achi and NEC, ai ded by
small R&D compani es.
The sale of UK' s ICL by Fuj i tsu in 1990 has opened t he quest i on of t he
r ol e of t he Japanese in Europe. Thi s is ar t i cul at ed by t he fact t hat Europe has
no real super comput er s ( or machi nes f or sci ent i f i c comput i ng, t o use t he
FUTURES Oct ober 1991
854 Nanot echnol ogy: prospects and pol i ci es
mor e f ormal name), unl i ke t he USA and Japan. One i mpor t ant pr oj ect is
Seymour Cray' s vent ur e, whi ch is out si de Cray research, t o pr oduce t he
gal l i um- ar seni de- based Cray 3. Wi t h a t hr eef ol d i ncrease in speed compar ed
t o si l i con, and assembl y r obot s, t he chal l enge pr ovi des some hi nt s f or
nanot echnol ogi es. Al so, Convex Comput er Cor por at i on is wor k i ng wi t h
gal l i um ar seni de t o i ncrease speed.
Anot her l i ne of research is massive paral l el l i sm, but it is uncl ear at
pr esent what t he l at t er can of f er t o t he devel opment of nanot echnol ogy,
besi des t he fact t hat a nanodevi ce is in l i ne wi t h t he t r end of havi ng a 'PC
on a chi p' and of r educi ng t he number of chi ps.
The r ul e post ul at ed by Gor don Moor e, Chai r man of INTEL, t hat t he
number of t r ansi st or s in one area doubl es every 18 mont hs, takes us i nt o
t he real m of nanobi ol ogy: f or us t o do comput i ng at r oom t emper at ur e, as
in l i vi ng systems, depends per haps mor e on sol i d surfaces t han on di f f u-
si on- l i mi t ed systems (see Fi gure 2).
The pr esent status of Dynami c Random Access Memor y (DRAMS) of 4
Mbi t s, wi t h 16 Mbi t s per chi p on t he hor i zon, has l ed compani es t o
speci al i ze in memor y pr oduct i on. The f i rst compani es wer e t he Japanese
Hi t achi , NEC and Fuj i tsu, but n o w Si ngapore, Tai wan and Sout h Korea can
also pr oduce l eadi ng- edge devi ces. Since it was aggressi ve pr i ci ng by
Japanese suppl i er s t hat pushed t he USA out of memor y pr oduc t i on and i nt o
t r ade tari ffs, it wi l l be i nt er est i ng t o wat ch how Japan r esponds t o t hi s
chal l enge f r om ot her Pacific Rim states.
10 TM
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Faul t t o l e r a n c e
I II Ill IV V VI
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Mol ecul ar electronics Nucl eot i de - -
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machines
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Harvard Mark 1
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Uni versi t y of Pennsylvania ENAC Connect i on machi ne (1000 MIP)
(5 K flops) I nt el 80860 (80 M fl ops)
Fi g u r e 2 . Co mp l e x i t y of c o mp u t e r s as f or ecast by Mo o r e ' s rul e. Source: A. Ch i a b r e r a et al,
' Physi cal l i mi t s of i nt egr at i on and i nf or mat i on pr ocessi ng mol ec ul ar s y s t ems ' , Journal of Physics and
Appfied Physics, 22, 1989, pages 1 5 7 1 - 1 5 7 9 .
F U T U R E S O c t o b e r 1991
Nanot echnol ogy: prospects and pol i ci es 855
Al t hough Moor e' s r ul e has hel d t r ue up t o t he pr esent , t he pr oj ect i ons
based on it are opt i mi st i c. That f ut ur e appl i cat i ons are hard t o pi n down
does not mean t hat all pr oj ect i ons are wi l dl y opt i mi st i c however , si nce
demand can expand i nt o new areas, and demand is t he key t o survival and
expansi on. Onl y t i me wi l l t el l wh e t h e r nanot echnol ogy wi l l reach a wi der
audi ence or wh e t h e r it wi l l remai n, l i ke Art i f i ci al I nt el l i gence (AI), as a
gover nment i nvest ment pl at f or m.
A pr ogr ammabl e nanoscal e assembl er bui l di ng at om- by- at om st r uct ur es
such as ot her assembl ers, seems t o r esembl e what life i t sel f is capabl e of.
Bi ol ogi cal f act or i es are hi er ar chi cal l y const r uct ed due t o t he fact t hat
exi st i ng desi gn is easi er t o i mpr ove on by r epr oduct i on t han r epeat edl y
st ar t i ng f r om scrat ch.
Dr exl er hi msel f guessed 12 t hat t he assembl er mi ght be bui l t dur i ng t he
f i rst t hi r d of t he next cent ur y. Thi s mi ght be bot h t oo opt i mi st i c and t oo late
f or sol vi ng t he pr obl ems posed by envi r onment al l y unsaf e i ndust r i al pr oduc-
t i on.
Since di f f i cul t y has been exper i enced in desi gni ng usef ul pr ot ei ns f r om
f i rst pr i nci pl es, it seems t hat t he onl y way t o make pr ogr ess is t o use t he
ki net i c st abi l i t y of l i vi ng or gani sms as t he basis f or t he desi gn of f act ori es
bel ow t he wavel engt h of l i ght . Thi s is t he ar gument behi nd t he concept of
nanobi ol ogy, i l l ust r at ed in Fi gure 3.
Manuf act ur i ng i ncr easi ngl y r equi r es a c ommi t ment agai nst er r or and
uncer t ai nt y. Present semi conduct or pr oduct i on processes sel ect opt i mum
par amet er s, use super - cl ean t echnol ogy and qual i t y cont r ol .
Japanese compani es f i rst used car bon f i bres f or mass pr oduc t i on, whi l e
t he USA appl i ed t he t echnol ogy t o avi at i on. Today, Japan cont r ol s 60% of
t he gl obal car bon f i br e market . 13 The Japanese are l i kel y t o appl y t hi s
st rat egy t o t he f i el d of nanot echnol ogy as wel l . As has been quot ed in
Nat ur e: 'a shor t - si ght ed f ocus on quar t er l y pr of i t s runs cont r ar y t o t he
nat ur e of t he semi conduct or busi ness' . 14 Such a f ocus cont r adi ct s even
mor e t he devel opment of nanot echnol ogy as t he key manuf act ur i ng t echno-
l ogy of t he 21st cent ur y.
Assumi ng cur r ent economi c t r ends, Japan's GNP wi l l gr ow t o levels
equal t o 65- 70% of t he USA' s by t he earl y 21st cent ur y. Thi s economi c
pr essur e is compl ement ed f or nanot echnol ogy wi t h a post ul at ed l i nk t o
Japanese cul t ur e. In some si t uat i ons, it seems t hat ' smal l is beaut i f ul ' is
pr omot ed as t he r easoni ng behi nd research on bi ocomput er s. Realists
woul d be mor e l i kel y t o say t hat nanot echnol ogy and nanobi ol ogy are a
must if Japan is t o move up- mar ket and survi ve. As pr esent - day semi conduc-
t or s added val ue in small vol umes, t hese new t echnol ogi es wi l l do t he
same, but even mor e so. The Erato pr oj ect s, Aono At omcr af t (1989-94), wi t h
t he ai m of ' di r ect mani pul at i on of at oms and mol ecul es on sol i d surf aces' ,
and Nagayama Prot ei n Array (1990-95) on ' 2-D cryst al l i ne arrays of pr ot ei ns,
t hei r desi gn, synt hesi s, assembl y and st r uct ur al anal ysi s' , i ndi cat e t he sup-
por t f or basi c i nvest i gat i ons at t he nanol evel in Japan.
The Agency of I ndust r i al Sci ence and Technol ogy (AIST) of MI TI wi l l set
up an i nt er di sci pl i nar y research cent r e on nanot echnol ogy, is Thi s cent r e wi l l
i nvol ve non-Japanese sci ent i st s in pl anni ng t hr ee- t o- f i ve year pr oj ect s. MI TI
i t sel f is pl anni ng an / kngt r ~m t echnol ogy pr ogr amme wi t h ' dozens of
compani es' and ' hundr eds of mi l l i ons of dol l ar s' besi des t he j i sei dai (next
FUTURES Oct ober 1991
856 Nanot echnol ogy: prospects and pol i ci es
Mol ecul ar bi ol ogy
DNA/ RNA/ Ami n o acids
Ribosomes
Nanocharact eri zat i on
Quant um devices l
ibC~ddi.~_rneg rad i ca I s_____~' I k ,
Vi r us F
Nanobi ol ogy J=
Assemblers
STM, AFM
l
Richard Feynman,
' There is pl ent y
of room at the
bot t om'
29 December 1959
Comput er
programmi ng
' Ar t i f i ci al l i f e'
Figure 3. Concept of nanobiology.
generation) programme for quantum dots and quantum wells lasting 10
years from 1991. To add to this, the Hitachi Central Research Laboratory's
'Peace 91' message in nanometres was not made at -263 C, as the IBM logo
(1989), but at room temperature. Indeed, this shows the Japanese aim for
devices like miniature dat a stores. Even the IBM atom-sized electronic
switch has been called in question: 'part of the problem is that US scientists
FUTURES October 1991
Nanot echnol ogy: prospect s and pol i ci es 857
f ocus on t he t heor et i cal sci ence' . 17 Bot h Hi t achi and I BM have used STM,
t hough di f f er ent l y. Whi l e I BM pi nned at oms down, Hi t achi i oni zed at oms
wi t h pul ses of five vol t s at a di st ance of some 0.3 nm. The surf ace is in
vacuum, and any l eak is l i kel y t o dest r oy any i nf or mat i on wr i t t en. Al so,
wr i t i ng i t sel f is sensi t i ve t o envi r onment al di st ur bances and takes a l ong
t i me. Aut omat i c systems wo u l d enhance its use and coul d, in t he f ut ur e,
signal a vacuum memor y devi ce smal l er t han t he f ul l st op at t he end of t hi s
sent ence.
Wi t h t he end of t he col d war , it is nat ural t hat bot h t he USSR and t he
USA are di scussi ng conver si on of mi l i t ar y capaci ty. Such di scussi ons r el at i ng
t o nanot echnol ogy t ook pl ace in Bost on in summer 1990. It is not di f f i cul t t o
const r uct scenari os in whi ch t he USSR exper i ences such pol i t i cal i nst abi l i t y
t hat any j oi nt devel opment is r ender ed i mpossi bl e. However , cr eat i ng
mi cr oel ect r oni c devi ces based on pr esent nanot echnol ogy in t he USSR
wo u l d be one st rat egy f or US el ect r oni cs f i rms. AT&T and NEC's agr eement
t o share, unt i l January 1993, process t echnol ogi es f or semi conduct or s t wo
gener at i ons ahead of t he pr esent , coul d be an exampl e of f ut ur e nanot ech-
nol ogy col l abor at i on. Essentially, nanot echnol ogy wi l l be det er mi ned by
process t echnol ogi es, i ncl udi ng new sci ent i f i c concept s on t he at omi c scale
f or t he pr ocessi ng of i nf or mat i on.
The demonstrator
It is one t hi ng t o i dent i f y pot ent i al areas of sci ent i f i c br eakt hr oughs, but a
qui t e di f f er ent one t o si ngl e out busi ness oppor t uni t i es. The l i nk bet ween
t he t wo is t he d e mo n s t r a t o r - - s o me o n e wh o f orces a devi ce on t o t he
market .
Expl oi t i ng t echnol ogy i mpl i es t echnol ogi cal under st andi ng, whi ch can
be sci ent i f i c under st andi ng, as bi ot echnol ogy shows. Thus, it is possi bl e t o
di vi de nanot echnol ogy i nt o a sci ence pol i cy part and a t echnol ogi cal /
i ndust r i al pol i cy part. The f i rst descr i bes genui ne research wi t h o u t manuf ac-
t ur i ng (Table 1). The t i me hor i zon f or manuf act ur i ng research seems t o be
five years, whi l e a small amount is devot ed t o 15 years hence.
Nanot ec hnol ogy is pr esent l y bei ng demonst r at ed in el ect r oni cs etc, so
t he real quest i on f or demonst r at i on refers t o t he concept s of dr amat i cal l y
new pr oduct s. For exampl e, t he Bi oel ect r oni cs Gr oup wi t hi n t he Depar t -
ment of El ect roni cs and Electrical Engi neer i ng at t he Uni ver si t y of Gl asgow is
f unded by t he EEC ( under t he Bri t e/ Euram pr ogr amme) t o i nvest i gat e t he
usef ul ness of STM and at omi c f or ce mi cr oscopy (AFM) f or bi ocompat i bl e
and bi oel ect r oni c pr oper t i es. However , in most i ndust r i es compani es wo u l d
pr ef er t o be t he i nsi ders wh o benef i t as opposed t o t hose wh o t ake t he
ri sks and demonst r at e. Gover nment s, in t he f or m of t he mi l i t ar y or space
pr oj ect s, have t aken such ri sks in t he past. Even t he Amer i cans, wh o
consi der t hemsel ves t o be out - and- out capi t al i st s have most of t he devel op-
ment ri sks cover ed by t he f ederal budget . Some 70% of t he R&D spendi ng
is bor ne by t he Depar t ment of Def ense wi t h about 25% spent in f ederal
l abor at or i es.
The pr obl em wi t h t hi s met hod is wi t h assessment because of t he
cl assi f i ed nat ur e of t he resul ts. Even so, t her e is a l ot of c omment whi ch
FUTURES October 1991
858 Na n o t echn o l o g y : prospects a n d pol i ci es
TABLE 1. NEW SUBJECTS FOR POLICY DUE TO NANOTECHNOLOGY.
Sc i e n c e
Quantum phenomena in designed structures by different forms of spectroscopy
Attachment of enzymes and antibodies to semibonding surfaces
Electronic control of biomolecular surfaces
Energy transfer below 100 nm
T e c hn o l o gy
Biotechnological processing
Medical devices
Quantum chips
Ecological monitoring
assumes t hat Japanese compani es are edgi ng ahead in desi gn and devel op-
ment. For exampl e, Konrad Seitz, chi ef of the German Foreign Of f i ce pol i cy
pl anni ng has said:
This is the big battle of our time, but there is no si gn that we are getting our act
together. By the year 2000, the nine Japanese sisters will have a virtual monopoly on
the entire range of information services, including telecommunications, semiconduc-
tors and computers. The only remaining question is whether IBM will be number
10.1~
The new forms of i nf or mat i on handl i ng t hat sol i d state devi ces have made
possi bl e have changed t he wor l d. However, whet her t he more radical
nanot echnol ogy is goi ng t o be part of t hi s i nf or mat i on i ndust r y wi l l depend
on t he sensi t i vi t y t o thermal noi se t hat more t r adi t i onal semi conduct ors wi l l
have in t he f ut ur e.
The main f act or t o address must be t he cost of mani pul at i on. The
material const ruct ed must t hus have features t hat chemical mani pul at i on
woul d not be able t o produce. This moves t he pol i cy t owards desi gn f or self
repai r and ul t i mat el y t o processes anal ogous t o t hose in life.
STM can create nanost ruct ures and cont r ol t hei r quant um propert i es.
However , wor k is needed t o cl ari f y the i magi ng machanism of bi ol ogi cal
samples whi ch are compl ex el ect roni cal l y. In short , nanoscale science is an
urgent need i f nanot echnol ogy is t o be as i mpor t ant as some envisage.
Wi l l t he science resul t in new products? This wi l l depend on capital
avai l abi l i t y and i ntel l ectual pr oper t y pr ot ect i on. The sci ent i f i c i ncent i ves f or
i nvest ment in nanot echnol ogy are already under way.
Notes and references
1. N. Tani guchi , ' On t he basic concept of nanot echnol ogy' , Proceedings of t he I nt ernat i onal
Conf erence of Product Engi neeri ng, Tokyo, 1974, Part 2.
2. Richard P. Feynman, ' There' s pl ent y of r oom at t he bot t om' , Energy a n d Science, 36, 22
February 1960.
3. Forrest Carter, ' Mol ecul ar level f abri cat i on t echni ques and mol ecul ar el ect r oni c devi ces' ,
Journal o f Vacuum Science a n d Technol ogy, BI(4), Oc t ober - Dec ember 1985, pages
959-968.
4. Louis de Brogl i e, Compt e Rendu, 77, 1923, pages 507-548.
5. Eric Drexl er, Engines o f Creati on (London, Fourth Estate, 1990).
6. I bi d, page 36.
7. W. I. McLaughl i n, ' Nanot echnol ogy' , Space Fl i ght, 30, 1988, pages 106-107.
8. Sci enti fi c Ameri can, January 1990, page 10.
FUTURES October 1991
Nanotechnology: prospects and policies 859
9. Financial Times, 7 January 1991.
10. Ibid.
11. Financial Times, 'Survey on t he comput er i ndust ry' , 23 Apr i l 1991.
12. Op cit, ref erence 8, page 11.
13. Nature, 346, page 102.
14. Ibid, page 101.
15. Nature, 9 May 1991, page 90.
16. The Albuquerque Tribune, 13 August 1991.
17. International Herald Tribune, 17 June 1991, page 11.
FUTURES Oct ober 1991