The European Political Changeover:

Episode 2 EUs top jobs

Official Appointments: High Representative for Foreign Policy and President of the
European Council
Against a troubled backdrop of the escalating Ukraine-Russia crisis,
with the prospect of a third round of sanctions and perhaps even a
European conflict, the European Council summit on Saturday 30
August finally reached agreement on two key EU top jobs:
Federica Mogherini, Italys Foreign Affairs Minister, was
appointed as the EUs High Representative for Foreign Policy;
and Donald Tusk, Polands Prime Minister, was chosen as the
next President of the European Council. The summit highlighted
several key factors in the Heads of State and Governments
decision-making:
The Russian factor
In the current Russian context, Mr Tusks appointment appears to
be a counter-balance to Mrs Mogherini as Poland and Italy have
until now embodied the pro- and anti-camps for stronger sanctions.
What does this mean? One school of thought is that having
both Mr Tusk and Mrs Mogherini in external EU roles
provides for checks and balances. The counter view is
that the EU may find critical decisions on Russia more
difficult than before and the same may apply to other critical
foreign policy decisions.
Poland comes of age, as do the Eastern Member States
Mr Tusks nomination marks the first major appointment of a
2004-enlargement country candidate to a key EU top job with
its burgeoning economy, Poland has arrived in diplomatic terms as
a large Member State.
What does this mean? The relative weight of Poland in the
Central and Eastern European (CEE) Member States is likely to
grow with Mr Tusks appointment and CEE interests are
likely to feature more prominently than ever before in
European Council negotiations and diplomacy.

Better the devil you know.
Several Member States hesitated over Mr Tusk: though almost unanimously well regarded by his peers, their
hesitation was predominantly down to Mr Tusks weak grasp of both English and French. Nonetheless, Mr Tusk
enjoys a high public profile given the growing economic and political importance of Poland in the EU, and is
regarded as an excellent broker of decisions thanks to his strong domestic experience.
What does this mean? Mr Tusk arrives in the role with perhaps even stronger standing amongst his peers and
with a similar style to the current President, Mr Van Rompuy. Yet, with the immense political and economic
challenges facing the Union, Mr Tusk may yet find the role even more challenging that his predecessor
and the bar for success even higher.

Evolving top EU jobs
Despite critics questioning Mrs Mogherinis lack of experience in global diplomacy and the significant scrutiny
under which she will undoubtedly be placed, the very fact that such a vigorous political debate surrounds her
appointment is to some extent at least a sign of the growing importance of the role. Mr Tusks appointment was
also hotly debated by Member States, Germanys Chancellor Angela Merkel and UK Prime Minister David
Camerons endorsement being decisive.
What does this mean? The lively debate around both appointments was a tacit admission by the 28
Member States that both have a significant bearing on the politics of EU decision-making. Mr Tusks
appointment, given he is a strong proponent of the free market and close to Germany and the UKs position
on various issues, suggests that this will reflect the direction of EU economic and single market policy going
forward.
What is the German position?
Bearing testimony to the significance of the German position on any given political issue, when Mrs Merkel
decided to back Mrs Mogherini two days before the Brussels summit meeting, the appointment of the Italian
became a done deal (in the same way that Merkels backing of Mr Juncker was decisive earlier this summer).
Also, Mr Tusk is known to be a close Merkel ally on both the political and personal levels.
What does this mean? The three appointments are confirmation that Germany is now the dominant
Member State. Mrs Merkel apparently agreed to Mrs Mogherinis appointment saying she had bigger
battles to fight with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, referring to Italys desire to tone down EU
austerity policies. Mr Tusks proximity to Mrs Merkel (and Polands position outside the Euro) may mean he
finds himself in an ideal position to mediate.
A balancing act: geographical, political, gender
The Tusk-Mogherini duo is a perfect illustration of the EU appointments puzzle, where the final picture has to
carefully balance geographical considerations, political affiliation and gender Mr Tusk as a male centre-right, new
Member State appointment; Mrs Mogherini as a female centre-left, Southern and founder Member State
appointment.
What does this mean? This key balancing-act consideration is perhaps the most important one to keep in
mind when evaluating the allocation of the remaining European Commissioner portfolios and understanding
the politics behind them. While this can be perceived as an attempt by the EU to increase the
representivity of the institutions, it tends to reinforce the suspicion that the best candidates arent
always the ones selected for EU appointments.

Remaining appointments: where do we stand on country nominations?
We should expect to see a final, confirmed list of candidates from each Member States in coming days. Mr
Juncker is maintaining pressure on Member States to put forward female candidates and has promised to allocate
them important portfolios. The European Parliament is also maintaining its threat to vote against a College of
Commissioners with too few women, effectively plunging the EU into an institutional and political crisis. Given that
some countries still have yet to confirm or make public their candidates, and Poland will most likely retract
its candidate, we can expect to see a few additional women appearing on the list in the next few days.
In the immediate aftermath of Saturdays summit, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, the Danish Prime Minister,
announced Denmarks candidate: Margrethe Vestager, the current Economy and Interior Affairs Minister.
Poland is likely to put forward a new candidate (having received the European Council Presidency, Poland
will not be likely to receive a major Commission portfolio, so will probably replace the high-profile Radek
Sikorski).
It would appear that in addition to the current Commissioner Ciolo, Romania has also put forward female
MEP (and Vice-President of the European Parliament) Corina Creu, if it does not receive the agriculture
portfolio as hoped.

The Dutch government has not yet made public its candidate. Frans Timmermans remains the most
probable contender, although speculation suggests that if The Netherlands is not assured of receiving a
strong economic portfolio, it may put forward the female Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Co-
operation, Lilianne Ploumen, instead.
The Belgian governments candidate is overdue, as a result of national difficulties around parties still trying
to form a government. Long-standing MEP Marianne Thyssen and Didier Reynders still seem to have the best
chance, although Gwendolyn Rutten is now also being mentioned. However, as she is a member of the same
party as Karel De Gucht, she is unlikely to gather sufficient support nationally.
While Cyprus and Slovenia have still yet to confirm nominations, Cyprus will almost certainly nominate
Christos Stylianides and Slovenia has put forward two female candidates (Prime Minister Alenka Bratuek and
MEP Tanja Fajon), as well as Karl Erjavec.

Remaining appointments: where do we stand on possible portfolio allocations?
Economic portfolio
The economic and monetary affairs portfolio remains the most prized one of all. Speculation remains
rampant regarding the prospects of Frances Pierre Moscovici securing the post. While Germany has
been opposed to a French Commissioner overseeing the Stability and Growth Pact, Moscovicis chances are
looking increasingly hopeful in light of the overall balancing act (and a desire to avoid further weakening
Frances economy with a rebuff). His nomination may be more tolerable if it is in combination with centre-
right Commissioners that are stronger proponents of austerity policies in other economic-oriented portfolios.
Along those lines, there is also growing speculation that UKs Lord Hill will be chosen by Mr Juncker in
the post of a newly-created Financial Services Commissioner. This would be a major concession to Mr
Cameron, designed to support efforts to secure the UKs membership of the EU with a possible referendum in
2017.
If that scenario does not pan out, the most likely alternative would be for one of the former Prime Minister
candidates to be nominated (the Finnish Jyrki Katainen seemingly the best placed, as he will undoubtedly
receive a strong portfolio) or a woman (perhaps the newly nominated Danish Mrs Vestager, currently the
Economy Minister).
Another possible scenario is Mr Katainen chosen to head the economic cluster, should Mr Juncker chose
to put in place the cluster model, with the UK and French candidates receiving other economic-oriented
portfolios within the cluster this solution would appease the UK, while maintaining Mr Katainen in a
hierarchically superior position.
Trade
While initially keen to renew his energy portfolio, Gnther Oettinger has recently expressed interest in
receiving the trade portfolio, which would place the German Commissioner at the heart of TTIP
negotiations (Merkel is a strong supporter of TTIP as a driver of European economic growth). Germany would
be in a strong position to receive this post.
The Spanish candidate has also expressed his desire to receive this portfolio, although it is generally given to a
country with a stronger free trade leaning candidate.
Competition
While Lord Hill had been, for a time, mentioned as a possible for the next Competition Commissioner, the
latest speculation puts Mr Katainen as the front-runner for the post.
Energy
With Mr Oettinger seemly preferring Trade, he would now appear to be out of the running.
Poland had also expressed interest in receiving the energy portfolio, although this would be highly
controversial, given Polands strong national energy objectives and old energy mix. Furthermore, it now

appears more unlikely that Poland will receive an important portfolio, given that Mr Tusk will be Presiding the
European Council.
The latest speculation suggests that Mr Juncker may look to combine two current portfolios into one:
energy and climate change.
ICT
Mr Juncker has highlighted the cross-cutting importance of digital policy yet the concrete translation of
this into the Commissioner model remains unclear.
Latvias Valdis Dombrovskis and Estonias Andrus Ansip both former Prime Ministers from ICT-strong
Baltic States stand a good chance of securing the digital portfolio.
Health
The latest speculation suggests that the next Health Commissioner could come from among the ranks of
former healthcare professionals and Health Ministers from smaller Member States Lithuanias current
Health Minister Vytenis Andriukaitis may stand the best chance. Croatias Neven Mimicas name is also
being floated as the current Commissioner for Consumer Protection, he is already familiar with DG Health
and Consumers.

Next steps
Week 1 September: Mr Juncker will begin interviewing Commissioner candidates put forward by Member
States, in light of the portfolio allocation.
9-10 September: Mr Juncker is expected to officially present his College of Commissioners, announcing his final
portfolio allocation.
Arrangements will then need to be very rapidly made for the nominee Commissioners to go before the
European Parliament for their confirmation hearings (the effective rejection of any nominee Candidate would
almost certainly see the new Commission miss its 1 November timeline for entering into office).


Keeping up with the 2014 institutional changes
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issues are flagged in campaign manifestos, and how the outcome is likely to influence the
policy agenda both for digital issues and beyond.

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