Note on Fashion Forecasting.

Kaustav SenGupta NIFT Chennai 24-10-06 1

Fashion Forecasting

Definition of Fashion :
Fashion is an expression of the times which is often used as a synonym of the terms
adornment , style , dress and tend to be focused on those businesses involved in
the design , production, sale and promotion of clothing, accessories, and lifestyle.

Fashion trends and forecasting:

Fashion trends provide an insight into the style and color direction that future fashion
products will take in their final form. The trends can be in short time or long time move.
The short time trends deal with the ready to come fads in near future season while the
long time trends deal with underpin future (18 months ahead or more) of structural
changes in silhouettes, colors and materials.

Fashion forecasting has been compared to chasing the future with a butterfly net
(Gardner, 1995). Forecasters pluck emerging trends out of public information by
becoming sensitive to directional signals that others miss. Faith Popcorn defined
forecasting as brailing the culture looking for the new, the fresh, and the innovative,
and then analyzing the whys behind it (1991).

Attributes in Trend Direction:

The attributes in trend direction are :

! Color (visual and psychological attribute)
! Fiber / fabric / material (visual , and tactile attribute)
! Print (visual attribute)
! Silhouette (visual and psychological attribute)
! Styling detail and trims (visual , and tactile attribute).

Though trends in fashion are reflected through a variety of design elements it is believed
that customers respond to color first.

Forecasting specialties:

The forecasting is divided into two types of specialties :

Long time forecasting- It explores the possible futures and to share views and directions
for longer time ie. Five years or more.

Short time forecasting Involves periodic monitoring of the long term vision and
revisions as circumstances dictate. More than one year or less.



Note on Fashion Forecasting. Kaustav SenGupta NIFT Chennai 24-10-06 2

Forecasting process:

Forecasters vary in the methods they use, but all are looking for an apparatus that helps
them predict the mood, behavior, and buying habits of the consumer. Because trends
signal the emerging needs, wants, and aspirations of the consumer, the manufacturers and
retailers capitalize on their potential for turning a profit.

Steps in developing the forecast :

Step 1. Identify the basic facts about the past trends & forecasts.
Sept 2 Determine the causes of change in the past.
Step 3 Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual behavior.
Step 4 Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future.
Step 5 Apply forecasting tools and techniques, paying attention to issues of accuracy and
reliability.
Step 6 Follow the forecast continually to determine reasons for significant deviations
from expressions.
Step 7 Revise the forecast when necessary

Fields to be researched while developing the forecast :

Lifestyle, attitudes, values
Leisure and sports
Street fashion, as well as designer fashion and haute couture
Architecture, design, painting, literature
Music, films, Arts
Shops, catalogues
Media
Socio- cultural changes

As per J ackson and Shaw (2000) the socio cultural change gets effected directly by
Globalization, Greater media communication, Health, Technology, Basic ecology,
Pressured lifestyle, etc.

Related theories :

! Trickle Down Theory(Davis 1992)
! Trickle Across Theory
! Trickle up or bubble up theory
! Collective Selection Theory (Blumer 1969)
! Mass Market Theory (King 1963)
! Sub-culture Leadership Theory (Kaiser)
! Macro Level Theory (Kean 1997)
! Chaos & Complexity Theory
! Butterfly Effect Theory
Note on Fashion Forecasting. Kaustav SenGupta NIFT Chennai 24-10-06 3
! Environmental Scanning Theory
! Counter Trend Theory

Except the above-mentioned theories the fashion forecasters refer to the moving
Fashion Curves, Pendulum Swing and Fashion Cycles, Boom & Bust Cycle,

Fashion seasons :

The term season refers to a period of the time during which fashion products are sold.
Historically, there have been two clearly defined and traditional fashion season : Autumn
/ Winter and Spring / Summer. This division is largely influenced by weather patterns.
The transition can also happen. For example, once very seasonal merchandise such as
swimwear, traditionally sold from March to J uly, is now also sold in December and
J anuary to accommodate demand from people on winter holidays to the sun.

User occasions can be defined as a situation when consumers develop a need or a
product either as a result of their attitude and lifestyle activities like beach-wear in
summer and party outfits for New Year and it depends on the customer behavior. With a
fashion season having to accommodate traditional demand, the normal two seasons have
inevitably become fragmented.

The changing fashion retailer seasons in UK is given below :

SUB SEASONS PERIOD

Early Spring J anuary / February
Spring (events Valentines Day) Feb / March
Early Summer (Holidays) April / May
Summer May / J une
Summer Sale J une
High Summer J une / J uly
Transitional Autumn J uly / August
Back to School (where appropriate) August
Autumn September / October
Party wear November
Christmas presents / Traditional Spring December
Winter Sale December / J an

Types of forecast periodicals / reports/ books:

Fashion forecasters may use reports to keep their clients informed. These reports may
range from a one-page flyer or brochure to entire books, with supplements added
throughout the year. Major companies publish these books twice a year. These
publications fall into two categories: Premiere Books and Shape Books.


Note on Fashion Forecasting. Kaustav SenGupta NIFT Chennai 24-10-06 4


The Premiere books are offered under the following titles :

INFLUENCES A compilation of what will be the up-and-coming trends in
design, fashion and interior decoration.
COLORS An analysis of color ranges and harmony suggestions for the
womens, mens, and childrens sector, complete with swatches and international
color references.
FABRICS An overview of the future of woven, knits, and prints, illustrated with
samples and developed by theme, photos and references.
ACTIVE SPORTSWEAR A study on this dynamic sector offering beachwear
trends in summer and skiwear in winter, plus an overview of the outdoor wear and
running gear markets.

The shape books include the following titles :

GENERAL TRENDS FOR WOMEN Individual stories are developed that
include shapes, color, and fabric publications. An important part of this book is
the inclusion of fabric samples.
GENERAL TRENDS FOR MEN The format focuses on the various masculine
types and the shapes appropriate for each. Special attention is paid to urban,
sportswear, and casual-wear trends, offering suggestions on detailing and
fabrication for each.
GENERAL TRENDS FOR CHILDREN The book addresses the shapes and
trends for children aged four to twelve. Mini-stories are offered and are
accompanied by fabric suggestions.
FABRIC UPDATE The latest in fabric innovation and suggestions for
incorporation into the clients line.
SHOES Mens and Womens shoe trends are featured, along with material
swatches and theme strategies.
ACCESSORIES An overview of bags, belts, and other accessories, and how
they should relate to the fashion silhouettes.

Through the use of trend books, clients are able to learn as far as eighteen months in
advance of a coming season what styles, colors, silhouettes, and fabrics have the potential
for success.

Except these the other services available are:

FABRIC & COLOR LIBRARIES : Major fashion forecasters offer complete libraries of
the fabrics and fibers available to the fashion industry. By subscribing to these services,
designers can review the materials as often as they like and can compare the offerings of
different fabric producers to determine which ones better suit their needs.

Note on Fashion Forecasting. Kaustav SenGupta NIFT Chennai 24-10-06 5
DESIGN SERVICES : Sometimes the forecast services design the entire collection for a
fee. These are called design services. In this way, the retailer is rest assured that
knowledgeable people are creating new merchandise, without the need to maintain year
round , in-house creative team.

AUDIOVISUAL PACKAGES : To communicate the latest developments for each
season, some fashion forecasters develop slide and video packages that cover trends in
silhouettes, styles, colors, fabrications, and patterns. Each client receives a visual
program of each seasons predictions, along with a narration. The advantage is that the
presentation may be seen by a host of viewers. For retailers interested in private labeling,
the entire merchandising team can use presentations to learn about industry trends.

INDIVIDUAL CONFERENCES : The larger forecasting companies maintain a staff of
experts who are prepared to discuss a clients specific problems and needs at an
individual conference. As part of their contractual arrangements, fashion forecasters offer
these special consulting conferences.

Color, textile and style Forecasting companies :

Color Marketing Group

Color Portfolio

Committee for colors & Trends

The Cottonworks Fabric Library

Design Options

Doneger Creative Services

Futuremode

Here & There

Hanna Cohon

Nelly Rodi

Pantone Inc.

Peclers Paris

Promostyl USA Inc.

Style Masters International
Note on Fashion Forecasting. Kaustav SenGupta NIFT Chennai 24-10-06 6

Tobe Report

Trend Union

Fabric Councils and Commissions :

Acrylic Council Inc.

American Wool Council

Cotton Incorporated

Masters of Lilen

Mohair Council of America

Fashion Forecasting for Indian Market

Hurdles in making trend forecasting to work in India:

! Socio- cultural diversity
! Varied religion and political factors
! Demographic and climatic diversity
! Varied Urbanizations
! Varied ethical values
! Diversity in family values attitudes dressing styles/ sense
! Diversifying media pockets (Movies, TV soaps, Music)
! Regional sentiments
! Varied time pressures and social freedom
! Constant population growth
! Lack of Fashion Literacy / sensitivity
! Lack of quality and value consciousnesses among the consumers (price is still a
big factor)
! Lack of available data and reports for customer psychology research in fashion.
And lifestyle







Why is the need?

Note on Fashion Forecasting. Kaustav SenGupta NIFT Chennai 24-10-06 7
Indian apparel market currently is USD 20 billion plus, is significant but highly
fragmented. Not even one retailer or brand has 1 percent market share. However, this
can be easily tackled by making right product available at the right place, right time and
to the right consumer at the right price. Harmindar Sahni, Technopak ( Textile and
Apparel Congress- Mumbai, April 2006)

To market right product at right time at right price to the right consumer we need right
predictions; hence the immediate need of forecasts for Indian market. Understanding
Indian psychologies, strong values and beliefs can best be done by the Indians than
anybody else. The global sources can be helpful for overall trend information but the
process needs integrations among Indian:
! Psychologists
! Environmentalists (Environmental Institutions and agencies).
! Statistical data analysts (Management and Statistical Institutes).
! Fashion, Interior and Lifestyle Product Designers (Fashion & Design Institutes).
! Media personals (Media / mass communication Institutes and agencies).
! Fashion, entertainment and sports journalists
! Company Managers and entrepreneurs
! Colorists.
! Keen observers from all segments of life and profession.

Along with this the constant support is needed from the material manufacturers, as the
forecast starts from material research and constant innovation or improvisation.

There are three kind of consumers in India:

! Those who are completely integrated with the rest of the world are receiving same
influences and can live the similar life.

! Those who are far removed from any global fashion influences or aspirations.

! Those customers who are exposed to global influences, but are tempered by the
huge sense of tradition, culture and family.

The Designer labels, prt line (retailers and brands) and foreign investors can basically
target the first and third category of consumers. The middle segment can be covered by
the mass and knock offs.
For the first category the forecasting of global market is relevant but for the most
interesting and growing third category India needs a forecasting service that understands
the socio cultural values of the consumer as well as has the awareness of global trend
movements.

Thanks.