1

Nicoleen Pitargue
Rossini Villaroza
Elenee Ventura

Changing Domestic Dynamics of France and Germany
INTRODUCTION
Background of the Study
The arms embargo of the European Union against the Peoples Republic of China was
intended to signal disapproval of Chinese actions and human rights violations. It was in 1989
when the Chinese Army violently took down and crushed a student democracy movement that
was taking place in the Tiananmen Square.
1
This location has served as the center of many
political disputes in China.
2
Thousands of students camped out in the square demanding political
reform and an end to corruption, bringing with them banners and outcries of slogans. On June
4th, the troops of the Peoples Liberation Army open fired on the civilians on the order of the
government. Hundreds of students lay murdered across the streets of Beijing and a lot more were
injured. The horrific event of the Tiananmen Square massacre and the student protests caused
uproar not only in China, but in the international scene as well.
The human rights violation and refusal of China to carry out a thorough investigation is what led
the EU and the US to coerce an arms embargo against the nation. While the EU embargo was
simply a political statement of the heads of state of the European Community at their summit in
Madrid in June of 1989, the US arms embargo against China was made public law in early

1
Alvin H. Chu, Vindicating the Tiananmen Square Massacre: The Case Against Li Peng, Wisconsin
International Law Journal, vol. 20 issue 1 (30 November 2000): 1.
2
Wu Hung, Remaking Beijing: Tiananmen Square and the Creation of a Political Space Chicago: The
University of Chicago Press, 2005), 15.
2

1990.
3
Therefore, the embargo implemented by the US is legally binding. The embargo of the
EU on the other hand is more flexible since they left the interpretation to individual member-
states. As of 2012, China has demanded the ban be lifted to make way for better trade relations
between the two entities.
4
Some EU states, spearheaded by France, as early as 2003 have been
requesting the repealing of the ban.
5
This is to open up bilateral trade relations with China to
broaden their economic influence. The EU, if the ban be lifted, is not expected to sell major
weapons to China. The act of lifting the ban is simply to better the relationship between the two
entities. The US on the other hand is wary of the abolishment of the arms embargo. They fear
that increasing interaction between the EU and China would lead to the neutralizing of the
support from the EU.
6
The broad EU-U.S. defense industrial cooperation is also at risk should
the arms embargo of the EU to China be lifted.
Statement of the Problem
The purpose of this study is to gain a deeper understanding of the EU-China arms
embargo and more specifically the changing domestic dynamics of France and Germany. The
researchers aim to find out how the domestic pressures in influential states, such as France and
Germany, who are members of the EU would affect the arms embargo.
The researchers aim to answer the following questions:
1. How does the domestic politics of France and Germany affect the status of the arms embargo?
2. How does the political pressures from outside of the EU affect the domestic politics of France

3
Gudun Wacker, Lifting the EU arms embargo against China. US and the EU positions. Working Paper
(2 February 2005): 4.
4
Louise Armitstead. " China's Wen Jiabao demands EU lift arms embargo." The Telegraph, 20 September
2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/9556509/Chinas-Wen-Jiabao-demands-EU-lift-arms-
4
embargo.html (Retrieved 23 September 2013)
5
Richard Weitz, EU should keep China arms embargo, The Diplomat, 18 April 2012,
http://thediplomat.com/2012/04/18/eu-should-keep-china-arms-embargo/, (Retrieved 23 September 2013)
6
Ibid.
3

and Germany?
3. How does the embargo affect the relationship of EU and China?
4. Why does China want the ban to be lifted?
5. Why do some of the member states, such as France and Germany, of the EU want the ban
lifted?
Variables
Independent Variable: The approach of the France and Germany in dealing with China
The approach of Germany and France to China could determine a significant change in
the arms embargo on China as it could lead to the embargo being totally lifted. By anticipating
what are the reasons why these two big EU states have a different approach in dealing with
China, the researchers would be able to determine why the EU doesnt want the embargo to be
lifted if its two big states are already insisting it should be.
Dependent Variable: The arms embargo to China
The arms embargo on China will determine the capability of the EU to maintain the
status quo.
Hypothesis
Influential states, such as France and Germany, who are members of the EU would want
the arms embargo to be lifted due to internal pressures. Because of this, the EU would not be
able to maintain the status quo and the ban would be lifted.
Scope and Limitations
The researchers will focus on the United States efforts to put a halt on the lifting of the
arms embargo of the EU against China. The researchers will start their timeframe from 2003
since this was the year that the EU members such as France and Germany has shown interest in
4

lifting the ban. Even in the presence of the embargo, trade and selling of military weapons to
China has been possible through the many changes that have occurred within this timeframe due
to the lack of universal understanding of what the embargo entails as each EU member interprets
the embargo in their own terms.
The study would be done in De La Salle University Manila during a course of a year.
The researchers would be provided with a sufficient amount of data, however the research is still
limited to other resources such as the competence to conduct interviews with experts well suited
to share their insights and who are considered to be important characters in the said topic.
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
Overview
This section presents a number of arguments made by notable scholars in the field of
International Relations. The purpose of this study is to bridge the gap between the different
perspectives and points of view about the cross-strait relations for better comprehension and
analysis in the study. This chapter contains an in-depth review of different articles, books, and
dissertations elaborating why China wants to push through the lifting of the arms sales, why EU
is considering it, and why the US is opposed to it.
China and the Arms Embargo
First, Sandschneider gives a detailed description on the aftermath of the Tiananmen
Incident in his article Is Chinas Military Modernisation a Concern for the EU? He admits that
China has come a long way since the 1989 massacre and some EU member states believe it is
only fair that the EU should acknowledge the progress of China; the reason for EU to consider
lifting the embargo is because of Chinas rise. Sandschneider mentions German Chancellor,
Gerhard Schrders (soon to be followed by French President Jacques Chirac) argument and
5

supports it by explaining that the embargo was part of an EU sanction, which had been imposed
in a declaration of the European Council on 27 June 1989 as a direct reaction to the Tiananmen
Square massacre on 4 June.
7
Twelve years later, however, China had made considerable progress
not only economically, but also in terms of cooperating with the West on human rights and
international conflict resolution. Although it cannot be denied that China is still guilty of
extensive human rights violations, there have been some improvements, a fact which Schrder
and Chirac wanted to acknowledge. Seen in this light, the sanctions policy seemed to be a
historical relic that could easily be abolished. The embargo is a remnant of the EUs overall
sanction policy of 1989: the second of eight different clusters of sanctions referred to the
interruption by the Member States of the Community of military cooperation and an embargo on
trade in arms with China. Only the second part of that sentence is relevant today. All other
measures have long been lifted. Even exchanges between military delegations have been
resumed, as have all other forms of exchange halted by the 1989 decision. It should be added that
countries like Japan and Australia were much more forthright in lifting their sanctions against
China, by abolishing them altogether in the early 1990s. The fact that Europe decided to adopt a
policy of progressively abandoning its trading sanctions against China, but has retained the
weapons embargo as the only leftover of the EUs original 1989 embargo decisions, suggests
that the arms issue is a highly sensitive one. On a strictly factual basis, therefore, both Schrder
and Chirac were right, but the two politicians completely miscalculated the international
response to their suggestion. Analyzed in a more sober perspective, the policies suggested by
Schrder and Chirac were not aimed at increasing the arms trade with China, but rather at
sending a clear signal for cooperation to Beijing. But during the ensuing transatlantic debate, it

7
Eberhard Sandschneider, Is Chinas Military Modernisation A Concern For the EU? in Facing Chinas
Rise: Guidelines for EU Strategy (France: EU Institute for Security Studies, 2006), 44-45.
6

became clear that a major difference between Europe and the US is precisely a symbolic one.
The debate surrounding the arms embargo on China highlights some important problems for the
development of the EU as a security actor. It also gives some indication of the weight and
potential the EU carries regarding foreign policy. The review on the arms embargo against China
suggests that there is a common belief that some foreign policy decision-making should be
performed within the EU structures. Even when the legal basis for an EU-level decision is
unclear, and with strong incentives for member states to act independently, there is a will to
create consensus rather than to act separately. It is also worth noting that the EU expansion has
not seemingly led to any major changes with regard to EU policy content. Observers claimed that
the member states of the 2004 expansion would be more reluctant to pursue policies
independently of US interests. Yet the June Council meeting rejuvenated the issue of the arms
embargo review, rather than burying it. Some may find it interesting that the United States
seemed to have a limited input in influencing EU policy, but independence has always been a
key feature of EU sanctions policy, which further demonstrates consistency with previous
experience. Despite the fact that the transatlantic debate on how best to manage the peaceful rise
of China is slowly gaining ground, there is hardly much evidence that gives reasons for
optimism.
In understanding why China wants EU to lift the embargo, Wacker explains how China
needs European markets, investments and technology to maintain high economic growth rates
that are required to address poverty, especially in the rural areas, meet the aspirations of a
demanding urban population. The EU is China's top economic trading partner. Chinas growing
economic and political weight is seen as an opportunity for the EU to have China as a future
strategic partner. Lifting the embargo would result to prosperity of the relations between the two
7

states.
8
While Chinese documents admit that Beijing wants closer political ties with the EU, the
EU is seeking a strategic partnership from China. It continues to deepen its relationship with
individual EU governments. Archick, Grimmett, and Kan state a similar argument in which the
EU believes that engagement with China on several issues that tackle from weapons proliferation
to environmental degradation would benefit both states. EU intends to further entrench China in
the international system.
9
Vennesson adds that for China, lifting the embargo is a way of put an
end to a humiliating situation that reflected neither changes in China since 1989, nor in relations
between the EU and China.
10
The arms embargo represented the past, and the Cold War in
particular. Despite these ties, however, EU members are still struggling to come to terms with
Chinas rise and its impact on Europe and the rest of the world. Peter Brookes mentions in his
article Lifting the EU Arms Embargo on China: Symbols and Strategy that China is hoping that
when EU lifts the arms ban, the US would be pressured to lift the American arms embargo
against China but he also admits that such incident is highly unlikely.
11

Domestic Dynamics of France
Each EU member interprets the embargo in terms of their national laws, decision making
processes, and regulations. Since the EU lacks strong foreign policy institutions, the arms
embargo against China is best seen as a collection of national EU arms embargoes. As a result,
the EU collective stance lacks coherence or means of enforcement.

8
Gudun Wacker, Lifting the EU Arms embargo Against China: US and EU positions (Germany: German
Institute for International and Security Affairs, 2005), 4.
9
Kristin Archick, Richard F. Grimmett, and Shirley Kan, European Unions Arms Embargo on China:
Implications and Options for U.S. Policy (Washington, DC: CRS Report for Congress, 2006), 18.
10
Pascal Vennesson, Lifting the EU Arms Embargo on China: Symbols and Strategy (Institute of
European and American Studies, Academia Sinica, 2007), 426.
11
Peter Brookes, ed. Peter C.Y. Chow, The Lifting of the EU Arms Embargo on China: An American
Perspective in Economic Integration, Democratization and National Security in East Asia: Shifting Paradigms in
US, China, and Taiwan Relations (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2007), 298.
8

Since late 2003, France has sustained a campaign calling for lifting the embargo.
12
The
United States still pressures the EU to maintain its embargo on China but countries like France
turn against this. In January 2004, during the state visit by the Chinese President Hu Jintao to
France, the French President Jacques Chirac addressed French support of lifting of the outdated
embargo
13
and merrily underlining how France was going against the Americans on the issue of
the arms embargo, "As you know, France favours lifting the embargo, and as you know, our
American friends have strong reservations about it. As for us, we shall try to obtain the swiftest
possible lifting by the European Union of this embargo, which is of another time, and no longer
corresponds to today's realities."
14
Also, The French Defense Minister, Michele Alliot-Marie, has
argued that lifting the EU arms embargo against China could be a beneficial step because
according to her, China is rapidly developing its industry, and today our experts say in five years
China could make exactly the same arms that we have today.
15
And they will do it if they cannot
import. So maybe if we sell them arms, they will not make them. And in five year's time they
will not have the technology to make them. According to Gregory Suchan, a US State
Department official, France is one of the EU member states which still responsible for political-
military affairs since France, Italy and the UK continue to export arms to China, although other
EU states deduce the embargo more strictly.
16
According to Jean-Pierre Cabestan of the French
National Centre for Scientific Research, particularly France and Germany are pushing for lifting
the arms embargo on China: France, because the government is under pressure from the defence

12
Richard Weitz, EU should keep China arms embargo, The Diplomat, 18 April 2012,
http://thediplomat.com/2012/04/18/eu-should-keep-china-arms-embargo/, (Retrieved 23 December 2013)
13
Adam Wolfe, France, Germany Seek to Resume China Arms Sales. Asia Times, (2004)
14
Charlemagne, The EU and arms for China The Economist, 1 February 2010,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2010/02/eu_china_arms_embargo (Retrieved 23 December 2013)
15
Peter Spiegel and John Thornhill, "France urges end to China arms embargo," (Financial Times,2005)
16
Eugene Kogan, The European Union Defence Industry and the Appeal of the Chinese Market, (Vienna:
Publication Series of the National Defence Academy - Studies and reports on security policy, 2005), 29
9

industry to resume arms sales; Germany, because it wants to maintain good and close relations
with Beijing.
17

Domestic Dynamics of Germany
Germany has had a similar stance as France in regard to the arms embargo on China. In
December of 2003, German Chancellor Gerhard Schrder asked for the ban to be lifted, insisting
that the China now is not the China back during the Tiananmen Square Massacre.
18
The stance of
the Chancellor was much criticized not only by opposition parties, but by his own coalition party
as well creating some political pressures on Germanys stand on the arms embargo. With
German Chancellor Angela Merkel taking control of the state, Germanys stand on the issue of
the embargo has shifted closer to that of the UK.
19
They have been much more open to the idea
of lifting the ban but not so keen on doing so in fear of angering the US.
France and Germany are pushing for an end to the embargo largely for economic reasons.
The EU is China's third largest trade partner and, according to an October strategy paper, China
expects the EU to become its largest source of foreign investment within five years. China's
military spending has been growing by an annual rate of 17 percent even though the state has not
recently been involved in any major conflicts.
Germany's and France's economies have suffered since the late 1990s and may be subject
to EU action for government deficit spending above the maximum levels allowed as members in
the union. The expansion of the EU from 15 states to 25 in March will weaken the French and
German negotiating positions within the trading bloc. Both countries are hoping that investment
in China will help to pull their economies out of stagnation and near flat growth rates. China has

17
Ibid, 31
18
Dong Huang, The Possibility of EU Lifting Arms Embargo on China in the Context of the Eurozone
Debt Crisis, (Passau: University of Passau, 2012), 12.
19
Charlemagne, The EU and arms for China The Economist, 1 February 2010.
10

used this situation to make ending the embargo its top priority with the EU.
The motivations for France and Germany are strongly tied to their countries' economic
weaknesses. But their efforts to cancel the embargo may also be one route toward creation of a
multi-polar world to counterbalance the power of the US. Their desire to redress what they see as
a geo-strategic imbalance may explain why they want the EU to vote on lifting the embargo
before the March inauguration of 10 new members, many of which have close ties to
Washington.
What the literature lacks, and what the researchers want to cover, is the amount of
information about the domestic dynamics of the states that the researchers are focusing on. The
researchers will be focusing on France and Germany, the two EU member states that are very
keen on lifting the embargo. The researchers will also include Chinas motives and initiatives on
the matter
Theoretical Framework
Overview
This chapter will be evaluating the theory that will be used for the duration of the study.
The researchers will be analyzing the chosen theory to fully understand the empirical puzzle in
the interstate and intrastate relationship. Theories are essential so that one may comprehend the
different information that comes offered daily. It explains how some aspects of human behavior
or performance is organized, as theories are needed to make sense of hundreds of information
that are gathered every day. In this chapter, the researchers would explain why their chosen
International Relation theory is suitable for the topic instead of other theories that seems befitting
as well in another perspective.

11

Theory
To understand the domestic dynamics of France and Germany and how it would affect
the arms embargo, the researchers will be using the International Relations theory of Two-Level
Game by Robert Putnam. Introduced in 1988, the theory aims to explain the relationship of states
and interest groups in the intranational level as well as the relationship of states and other states
in the international level. The main argument is that domestic politics affect international politics
and vice versa. According to the theory, the politics behind negotiations can be seen as a two
level game.
20
The national level has the domestic groups and the government negotiating so as to
benefit from each other. Domestic groups pressure the government to pass policies that would be
beneficial for them while the politicians, to gain more power and influence, tries to please these
interest groups by passing bills and policies that they deem favorable.
21
At the international level,
states try to relieve domestic pressures and at the same time keep negotiations going with other
states to maximize their own interests. Both levels are important and cannot be ignored by the
state.
22

In international negotiation processes, there is a two-level game. Level I is bargaining
between the negotiators so as to reach an agreement. Level II is where individual group
constituents discuss whether the agreement should be ratified or not. Negotiations on Level II are
important since it decides whether the negotiation in Level I is successful. The larger the win-set
, the higher the chance of Level I negotiations to be successful. There are three factors that are
important to determine the win-set size
23
:

20
Robert D. Putnam, Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games International
Organization, vol. 42, issue 3 (Summer, 1999), 427.
21
Robert D. Putnam, Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games International
Organization, vol. 42, issue 3 (Summer, 1999), 434.
22
Ibid, 434.
23
Ibid, 437-442.
12

1. Preferences and coalitions on Level II
2. Institutions on Level II; and
3. Negotiators strategies on Level I
Further factors that may affect the size of the win-set would be uncertainty in
negotiations that may end up stalling negotiations between parties. International pressures might
also affect domestic politics and end up influencing domestic policies that may in turn affect
international negotiations.
An example given by Robert Putnam in the journal Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:
The Logic of Two-Level Game is
Application
The theory of two-level game can be applied to the research because of the actors
involved in the arms embargo of China. Domestic pressures in states such as France and
Germany are influencing the decisions made by the government internationally. Governments
are being pressured into making decisions that are beneficial to coalitions found inside the state
and the economic pressures of France and Germany paved way for their wanting to lift the
embargo. Furthermore, political pressures from China increased the tensions in the EU between
states who wants the embargo lifted and those who wants the embargo to remain.
The researchers will take into consideration the intranational situations, political
institutions, and interest groups in the state of France and Germany as well as their international
negotiations in regards to the arms embargo on China. Through thorough and meticulous
research the researchers will be able to hypothesize the possible size of the win-set and predict
the outcome of the negotiations based on the two-level game theory by Robert Putnam.

13

Operationalization of Concepts

Concepts Definition Operational Definition
Hegemon A situation in which one
state is able to impose its
set of rules on the
interstate system, and
thereby creates temporarily a
new political order, and that
state likewise enjoys extra
advantages for enterprises
located within it or protected
by it, advantages not accorded
by the market but obtained
through political pressure
24


After World War II, with the
United States ascending to a
role of the hegemon in the
international state system, it
played a leading role in
establishing such institutions
as the United Nations, the
Bretton Woods system, the
International Monetary Fund,
and a host of others
25



24
Walter Scheidel, Republics Between Hegemony and Empire: How Ancient City-States Built Empires
and the USA Doesnt (Anymore), (Standford University, 2006) Accessed 24 July 2013 at
http://www.princeton.edu/pswpc/pdfs/StructuralRealism.pdf, 4.
25
The Role of Hegemon in The Emergence of Peer Competitors: A Framework Analysis, accessed 24
July 2013 at http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/ch3.pdf, 45
14

International Level Beyond the national
boundaries of a state. Affairs
concerning one or two states
or between two governments.
The international level is
composed of states who
negotiate inside the win-set of
their state in order to
maximize their potential in
the international and
intranational levels.
26

Intranational Level Inside the national boundaries
of the state. Domestic affairs
of a state.
The intranational level is
composed of political
institutions and interest
groups that negotiate with the
government to pass bills and
policies that are favorable to
them.
27

Arms Embargo An arms embargo is a
prohibition or sanction against
the export of weaponry and
dual-use items - goods which
have both a civil and military
An arms embargo might be
imposed via various routes
such as by the UN, EU or
OSCE where they imposed
regulations as a result.

26
Robert D. Putnam, Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games International
Organization, vol. 42, issue 3 (Summer, 1999), 434.
27
Ibid.
15

use
Domestic Actors Small groups who usually
referred as institutions, NGOs
acting inside a State.
In the case of France and
Germany, domestic actors
consist of lobbyist, firms,
business or civilians who are
acting inside the State.

















16



Model
1. Theoretical/Conceptual Background



















International
Organization (IO)
IO Member State
IO Member State
Domestic Actor Domestic Actor
Negotiating State
17

2. Operational Diagram






















European Union
France
Germany
Domestic Actors Domestic Actors
China
18

METHODOLOGY
Since the study requires a thorough analysis of security policies and balance of power
theories, the research will be classified as a qualitative and descriptive research. The researchers
aim to gather an in-depth understanding of the relationship of the European Community,
Peoples Republic of China and the United States of America.
In order to support the hypothesis of the study, qualitative methods will be used. This
method would also help the researchers provide more information regarding security policies and
transatlantic alliances and Chinas pursuit lift the arms embargo. Documentary style of data
analysis will be used, as the researchers will be reviewing the patterns of events and practices of
the variables.
The researchers will make use of books and journals on theories of balance of power human
rights, strategic partnerships, security issues, and arms sales so as to find supporting information
about the relationship of the studys three variables as well as its objectives and activities. The
resources that will be used in this study would come from the De La Salle University Library,
which is considered to be best library in the Philippines in terms of research. Aside from the
DLSU Library, referred journals on the internet, articles in magazines, and newspapers written
by reliable and credible authorities and interviews with individuals who are part of the
Delegation of the European Union to the Philippines, an organization that officially represents
the European Union in the country, will also count as excellent sources for the study. These
books, journals, and interviews would provide everything there is to know regarding the EU-
China arms embargo and the domestic dynamics of France and Germany. The resources for this
study will help give important information and description regarding events that happened as
early as 1989. The resources will be in secondary and even tertiary form.
19

The study aims to find out how the domestic dynamics of France and Germany affect the arms
embargo of the EU to China. To answer the studys corollary questions, the researchers will
analyze works of scholars who have written journals and articles on the EU-China embargo as
well as the domestic politics of France and Germany.



















20

CHAPTER I
ECONOMIC FACTOR
An idea stressed by many EU member states who wants the arms embargo to be lifted is
that it would be to their advantage if they would be able to freely sell arms to China. Many
private companies in states leading the lifting of the embargo pushes for this. States and private
companies would like to expand their market and the embargo hinders that kind of relationship
that they could have with China.
In addition to that, Europes defense market has been decreasing for the past years and
Chinas economy is starting to appeal to a lot of companies who produces arms.
28
A lot of these
companies, such as Snecma and the European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company (EADS),
are based in France and in Germany and pressures the states to push for the lifting of the
embargo and in turn this decision of France and Germany pressures other EU states to follow
their lead being one of EUs biggest and strongest economies.
29
In order to lift the embargo, the
EU members must vote unanimously on this decision. If the most influential states continues to
push for the lifting of the embargo, then less powerful states would eventually follow.
If the embargo should be lifted then former arms suppliers of China, such as Russia,
would have new competition.
30
This would be an advantage for China since the newly
introduced arms suppliers would be competing for Chinas favor in buying military-grade arms
from them. In this way, not only will China be able to get higher quality arms, they would also

28
Eugene Kogan, The European Union defence industry and the appeal of the Chinese market. (Wien: Bro
fr Sicherheitspolitik, Landesverteidigungsakad), 7.
29
Joakim Kreutz. "Reviewing the EU arms embargo on China: the Clash between value and rationale in the
European security strategy." Perspectives. Review of International Affairs 22 (2004): 43-58.
30
Vasily Kashin, Chinas Call for Arms, Russia Beyond the Headlines, December 16, 2013.Retrieved at
http://rbth.asia/security/2013/12/16/chinas_call_for_arms_48971.html
21

be able to buy them at a lower price than before the embargo and introduction of new
competition.
POLITICAL FACTOR
Another idea stressed out by the members of the EU who wants the embargo lifted is that
by doing so would deepen the diplomatic relationship between China and EU member states.
Since the embargo was first implemented in 1989 due to the many violations of human rights in
Tiananmen Square, Chinas track record has improved, although still remains generally poor.
31

Keeping the embargo against China, according to some EU states, is a remnant of the Cold War.
The embargos former purpose has long come to pass and doesnt serve any purpose in
contemporary times. For states such as France, the immediate lifting of the embargo would
benefit the EU and would push their relationship further into a better partnership. Germany on
the other hand would like stricter implementations of human rights before the ban should be
lifted. Only after certain steps have been taken would the arms embargo be lifted.
32

Furthermore, China and the EU, through multiple dialogues, have increased cooperation
in international security. As expressed by some EU states in the 2012 EU-China summit in
Beijing, the embargo hinders this cooperation.
Although most states remain optimistic that the impact of lifting the embargo would be
positive, a lot of them remain skeptical. The EU, even those who are for the lifting of the
embargo, cannot ignore the repercussions the removal of the arms ban would have in the political
arena of Asia. The increase in the arms technology of China that may be a result of the free arms

31
Helene Cooper, US Drops China from List of Top 10 Violators of Rights New YorkTimes, March 12,
2008. Retrieved at
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/12/washington/12rights.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=U.S.+drops+china&st=nyt&oref=
slogin8
32
Andrew Rettman, Leaked cable shows fragility of EU arms ban on China The EU Observer, July 25,
2011. Retrieved at http://euobserver.com/china/32658
22

trade between the EU and the said state might disrupt the power balance of the continent. Most
affected by the idea of the lifting of the Arms Embargo would be Taiwan and this remains to be a
problem for the EU.
33
However, some would argue that the balance of power in Asia would not
be disrupted since the Code of Conduct on Arms Trade that has been in motion even before the
arms embargo on China would be further polished and have stricter guidelines in the selling of
arms by EU member states before the embargo would be completely lifted.
34
This includes the
compulsory and confidential circulation of the annual report of defense exports of EU member
states to other member states. Certain international actors, such as Amnesty International, remain
skeptical that the Code of Conduct, acting as a safeguard for when the Arms Embargo would
be lifted, is enough to ensure the non-abuse of free trade in military arms. They insist on the
strengthening of the Code before the embargoes complete removal.
35

The US, EUs biggest economic partner, relationship with the EU may also be affected.
The US also has an embargo in place against China and has campaigned against the lifting of
EUs ban. Selling of improves military-grade arms to China would result to the increase of their
military capabilities. Furthermore, China will be able to improve and produce their own arms by
reverse-engineering the ones that they have bought from new trade-partners. Certain EU states,
such as the UK, have invested a lot in the US in companies such as in the British Aerospace
Systems and remains enormous trade partners with them. They fear that if the arms embargo
would be lifted, the US would withdraw all support in terms of arms technology and maybe even
more. On the other side, Chinese Ambassador to the EU urges the EU to decide on their own

33
Eugene Kogan, The European Union defence industry and the appeal of the Chinese market.
34
Ibid.
35
DW staff, EU Proposes End to China Arms Embargo Deutsche Welle, April 15, 2004. Retrieved
athttp://www.dw.de/eu-proposes-end-to-china-arms-embargo/a-1170380
23

and not rely on the US in decision-making especially since the arms embargo is out of place in
contemporary times.
36

MILITARY FACTOR
Lastly, military aspects have been included as a factor for lifting the embargo. It was in
February 1991 that China realized that the Peoples Liberation Army had fallen far behind
modern military.
37
The opening days of Gulf War had convinced PLA analysts that they were
experiencing a revolution in military affairs. Twelve years before that, China also experienced a
shortcoming in its military weapons during its attack on Vietnam when China realized that they
were having a hard time carrying ground assault from three directions and was unable to bring
any air power.
38
Chinas cutoff from foreign military technology has been a concern. This is why
China wants the embargo to be lifted. Chinas economic relationship with the EU has improved
over the years and since the arms ban is non-binding, China sees an opportunity for the complete
elimination of the ban. EU member states have their own way of seeing the ban. In the 1998
Code of Conduct on arms exports, there is a criteria to be met when selling arms but other EU
member states but each member state understands the rules differently. The Code of Conduct
states which and what kind of weapons they can and cannot sell to China.
39
Trades of weapons
have become very limited because of Chinas reputation on lack of humanitarian values.
There has been a lot of controversy about the consequences if the embargo does get
lifted. The United States is concerned with further exacerbate the shift in the balance of power
across the Taiwan Strait. In the next few years, the cross-Strait conventional military balance of

36
Andrew Rettman, China: EU bailout leaves fundamental problems unresolved The EU Observer, July
7, 2011. Retrieved at http://euobserver.com/china/32608
37
David L. Shambaugh. Modernizing Chinas Military: Progress, Problems, and Prospects. (United States:
Regents of the University of California: 2002), 1.
38
Ibid.
39
Shao Cheng Tang. The EUs Policy Towards China and the Arms Embargo. (Taiwan: National Chengchi
University, 29 September 2005).
24

power will move decidedly in Beijings favor.
40
Aside from that, the United States fears that
arms from the EU that were purchased by China would allow Chinese forces to deter, delay and
deny American military intervention in the Pacific. Some strategists believe that China is also
eyeing on subjugating Japan, dominating Southeast Asia, and controlling Asia sea lanes.
41
China,
however, argues that their human rights have improved and that concern for the misuse of
weapons is unnecessary. Since EU and China have improved their economic relationship, China
feels that they should not be subjected to the embarrassment to being officially classified as
similar to the group of countries subjected to EU embargoes.
42

French Initiatives

European officials believe that EUs lifting of the embargo on China could negatively
affect American-European efforts to revitalize the transatlantic relationship.
43
France, however,
feels that a relationship with the United States should not be the sole focus of the EU. When
Socialist candidate Francois Mitterrand was elected president, the government sponsored an
ambitious series of measures to revive the economy, create jobs, and recapture domestic markets.
In January 2004 China and France agreed to a joint declaration to deepen their comprehensive
strategic partnership in political, economic, and cultural arenas.
44
France has focused all of its
energy to nationalization, the policy by which the state assumes ownership and operation of

40
David Shambaugh. A Matter of Time: Taiwans Eroding Military Advantage. (US: Washington
Quarterly: 2000), 119.
41
Peter Brooks, 298.
42
Kreutz, 49.
43
Kristin Archick, Richard F. Grimmett, and Shirley Kan, European Unions Arms Embargo on China:
Implications and Options for U.S. Policy (Washington, DC: CRS Report for Congress, 2006), 30.
44
David Shambaugh. Power Shift: China and Asias New Dynamics (US: University of California Press,
2005), 254.
25

private companies.
45
Since then, France has become a nationalistic state and can explain why they
are not as fond of the United States as the UK is.
France is pushing for the lifting of the embargo because the French government is under
pressure from the defense industry to resume arms sales.
46
The state is known to be a steady
supporter for the lifting of the embargo. But then, during his visit to Beijing, the then French
prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin promised that Paris will continue to push for lifting the arms
embargo and, in return, he was invited to attend a ceremony where Chinese airline companies
signed orders worth about $3.2 billion for 30 Airbus aircraft. This was hugely important for
Airbus, given the fierce competition from Boeing which is an American company. Likewise, the
French government could not ignore the fact that the survival of Thomson Multimedia and
Alcatel might not be possible without the Chinese market and Chinese investment.
47
Former
president Jacques Chirac addressed the position of France to Hu Jintao, stating that the ban was
outdated. Since late 2003, France has sustained a campaign calling for lifting the embargo.
48
The
French Defense Minister MichleAlliot-Marie mentioned during her 2003 visit in Beijing that
France would ask the EU to lift the embargo.
49
She argued that the removal of the ban as a
dangerous or risky feat as the French Ministry of Defense does not irresponsibly sell their
technologies to just anyone, adding that France remains to be one of the tightest export control
regimes in the world.
50

The president of the Aerospace and Defence Industries Association of Europe (ASD)
Urea-Raso expressed his concern, saying the European arms industry could lose its competitive

45
Mark Kesselman and Joel Kreiger, European Politics in Transition (Boston: Houghton Mifflin
Company)115.
46
JoakimKogan, The European Union Defence Industry and the Appeal of the ChineseMarket(Vienna:
Publication Series of the National Defence Academy - Studies andReports on security policy, 2005), 31.
47
Xiudian Dai. Understanding EU-China Relations: An Uncertain Partnership in the Making. na, 2006.
48
Weitz, EU Should Keep China Arms Embargo.
49
Tkacik, Responding to a Paris-Beijing Arms Axis.
50
Smith, In U.S. Visit, French Envoy Seeks Support on Arms Issues.
26

position if Europe fails to give attention to the arm industry.
51
EU officials should nurture the
arms industry even in times of deep economic problems because the industry is actually
profitable and competitive.
52
France has picked up on this and wants to take advantage of the
market in the arms industry.
Domestic Pressures from France
It was after Alliot-Maries statements that some French companies started to join the
lobby force. A French multinational aircraft and rocket engine manufacturer identified as
SNECMA has been complaining that the arms embargo has been negatively affecting their
business in China. Another popular supporter of the lifting of the arms embargo is the EADS
(European Aeronautic Defence and Space Cooperation). EADS Philippe Camus, CEO of EADS,
was the most vocal of them all, arguing that the embargo was a remnant of the Cold War and
that the previous successes of French-Chinese aerospace cooperation in the 1980s had been
ruined by the embargo.
53
EADS and its subsidiaries are well represented in Brussels with a
number of lobbyists frequenting the Parliament and a strong presence in lobby groups such as the
Kangaroo Group and Europe etdfense.
54
Speaking at the European Summit in 2008, EADS
chief-lobbyist in Brussels, Michael Troubetzkoy, was exceptionally open about their influence in
the EU Policy, praising his companys influential role in the establishment of the European
Defence Agency (EDA) and their privileged access to Valry Giscard dEstaing and Michael
Barnier both key figures in the Convention on the Future of Europe which prepared the content
of the Lisbon Treaty and proposed the creation of EDA.
55


51
Luehmann, Lobbying Warfare: The Arms Industrys Role in Building A Military Europe, 4.
52
Ibid.
53
Kreutz, Reviewing the EU Arms Embargo on China: the Clash between Value and Rationale
in the European Security Strategy,
54
Ibid.
55
The Silent Bubble, Inside the Brussels Bubble, retrieved at http://blog.brusselsbubble.eu/2008/12/silent-
bubble.html
27

There will be so much economic and trade opportunities for France if the ban gets lifted. Hu
Jintao, Chinas paramount leader admits that Alstom has a good shot at beating out the Japanese
and German competition in high-speed train service between Shanghai and Beijing.
56
In fact,
France stands to benefit handsomely if it succeeds in ending the arms embargo. China, the
world's fastest-growing major economy, has one of the largest defense budgets in the world and
is spending heavily to modernize its armed forces.
57
Aside from Alstom, telecommunications
equipment maker Alcatel-Lucent and utility group Suez and lectricit de France also have large
contracts in China.
58
These companies confirm the value of China as a market for European
technology despite tensions over human rights, trade and the environment.
59
U.S. critics contend
that a few EU members, such as France, are eager to engage more robustly with China in order to
promote their vision of a multipolar world.
60
In relation with this, there were many occasions that
former President Chirac expressed that France is in favor of a multipolar world, because it would
be dangerous if the world were to be dominated by only one power.
Accordingly, interest groups are seen as trying to distort the good of the whole
community. Interest groups in France are numerous but weak. Unlike British interest groups that
powerfully ally to become a united force, such as the Trade Unions Council, French groups are
molded by ideology, religion, and profession. Interest groups exist for most professional groups,
students, small businesses, farmers, and many commercial groups. Some interest groups, such as
the farmers unions, very actively demonstrate their views. The farmers recently gained

56
Asia News. Retrieved at http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Hu-%E2%80%93Chirac-Axis:-putting-the-
breaks-on-the-U.S.,-doing-more-business-313.html
57
Craig Smith, France Makes Headway in Push to Permit Arms Sales to China, New York Times, January
27, 2004. Retrieved at http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/27/world/france-makes-headway-in-push-to-permit-arms-
sales-to-china.html
58
Mykal, Olena. EU Attempts to Lift Arms Embargo on China and the Security Balance
in East Asia: Implications for East Asian Integration, 65.
59
Ibid.
60
Archik, 22.
28

international press when they blocked major roads by dumping manure to stop traffic. French
civil servants pay little attention to such tactics, and consultations with interest groups, except for
business, are merely formality.
61

Unions in France provide good examples of fragmentation that leads to weakness. Three
industrial unions compete with one other in most factories and offices. The CGT (General
Confederation of Labor) is affiliated with the Communist party. The CFDT (French Democratic
Confederation of Labor) began as a Catholic Union but dropped its ties to the church during the
1970s and now has close ties to the Socialist party. Force Ouvriere (Workers' Force) is the most
moderate of the three and also has some connections to the Socialist party.
62
Instead of uniting for
bargaining with the government the three groups compete for power and unions have only a
limited say in policy making. This tendency to conflict is a reflection of the broader French
political culture that accepts alienation and conflict as a part of the political process. The United
States and Britain are highly pluralistic, for interest group activity is acceptable and desirable,
and lobbying is normal for a healthy democracy. In France, on the other hand, interest group
activity, although it does exist, is frowned on and considered dirty. France is heir to centuries of
centralized and paternalistic government. The French are used to Paris ministries setting national
goals and supervising much of the economy.
63
French interest groups operate in a more
constrained atmosphere than their American or British counterparts.
German Initiatives
The Airbus transaction between France and China paved way for big deals between
China and Germany. Companies such as Daimler Chrysler opened up deals worth $800 million

61
http://phs.prs.k12.nj.us/ewood/Eurodemo/France/interestgroups.htm
62
Ibid.
63
Interest Groups. Pearson Higher Ed. Retrieved at
http://www.pearsonhighered.com/assets/hip/us/hip_us_pearsonhighered/samplechapter/0205075940.pdf
29

for railway locomotives and power generation equipment from Siemens.
64
Volkswagen,
anotherGerman company, is starting to make a great presence in China as well.
65
China remains
to be an important trade partner of Germany and is shown by the multiple visits of German
Chancellor Angela Merkel to the country.
66
Starting in 2010, China has announced that they
would have strategic dialogues with Germany. Their main aim is to ensure international
economic stability and to ensure that that the Euro would stand even after the multiple
predicaments the currency has faced in unstable states such as Greece which is now known as the
Eurozone Crisis.
67
Both states are eager to deepen their bilateral relationship and economic
partnership. This is important especially for China who sees Germanys growing influence in the
EU as an advantage to them. Germany may be able to convince the EU and its members to
further relations with China and eventually lift the embargo.
Germany remains to be Chinas biggest trading partner in Europe while China is
Germanys biggest trading partner in Asia.
68
Small and medium-sized German businesses have
been investing in China and serves as a motivation for other states, like France, to follow suit.
France and Germany, although both member states of the European Union, are still autonomous
actors. Therefore, it is expected that these two states have their own unique economic structures
and policies. This can be seen during the Bras Wars. The Bras War, in brief, is a textile dispute
between textileindustries in the EU and exporters from China.France, having a large textile
industry sees the surplus of cheap goods from China as competition for their local firms and is

64
Gedmin, J. The Great European Kowtow and What It Means, Financia Times, December 7, 2004.
Retrieved at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/1/c8be6514-4886-11d9-9162-00000e2511c8.html#axzz3BD3AwzkV
65
Xiudian Dai, Understanding EU-China Relations: An Uncertain Partnership in the Making. na, 2006.
66
Shannon Tierry, China and Germanys Special Relationship The Diplomat, July 8, 2014. Retrieved at
http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/china-and-germanys-special-relationship/
67
Stephan Richter, Germany and China: The New Special Relationship The Globalist, August 30, 2012.
Retrieved at http://www.theglobalist.com/germany-and-china-the-new-special-relationship/
68
Simone Weske,. "The Role of France and Germany in EU-China Relations."CAP Working (2007).
30

asking for protectionist measures.
69
Germany, on the other hand, is supporting its retailers by
insisting that the exports would be beneficial for the consumers as it provides them with cheap
clothes.
70
This internal dispute in the EU led them to decide upon a compromise that benefited
the negotiating partner, which is in this case, China.
Another notable cause may be that China would like to Counter-balance the US, which is
a constant distress for the US seeing as they would like to keep China from further improving in
the arms race by keeping both the US and the EUs embargo intact. Having Germany on their
side would help greatly in getting certain ideas across in international forums and may push
national interests forward.
71
On the other hand, Germany may see theirrelationship with China as
an opportunity to forward their interest of becoming a permanent member of the UN Security
Council or at the very least have China on their side when it comes to issues related to the
UNSC.
72

Domestic Pressures from Germany
If the embargo is to be lifted it would open up a whole new defense market with France
and Germany benefitting the most since they produce military-grade arms and defense materials
that are much sought-after by the Chinese, namely stealth submarines and fighter jets.
73

Although record of Chinas human rights violation has improved since the embargo was
placed in 1989, it is still at most poor. Some human rights activist are still in prison 15 years after
the Tiananmen Square massacre. If they were to lift the embargo without any great improvement

69
Ibid.
70
Ibid.
71
Stephan Richter, Germany and China: The New Special Relationship
72
Xiudian Dai. Understanding EU-China Relations: An Uncertain Partnership in the Making. na, 2006.
73
DW staff, EU Proposes End to China Arms Embargo Deutsche Welle, April 15, 2004. Retrieved at
http://www.dw.de/eu-proposes-end-to-china-arms-embargo/a-1170380
31

in human rights then it would send a bad message to those who are still in prison and to those
who are victims of human rights violation.
74

Under the previous chancellor Gerard Schrder, Germany, like France, would like the
embargo lifted and rallies for the immediate removal of the ban. However, unlike France,
Germany insists that China must first satisfy certain conditions in relation to human rights to
ensure that the events in Tiananmen Square or any further human rights violation would not
happen again.
75
Furthermore, those who are in favor of lifting the ban argues that with the 1998
Code of Conduct on Arms Sales still being applied today, abuse on the export of arms can be
avoided. Most notable is the second provision of the 1998 Code of Conduct which states that the
state exporting arms must review license requests and make decisions as whether or not to effect
an arms export if it might be used for internal repression or where the recipient country has
engaged in serious violations of human rights.
76
Germany is known to be strict in giving out
arms export licenses and although they want the ban to be lifted in order to open up a new
defense market in China and improve bilateral relations between the two countries, it would
seem from their track record that they would be responsible in making decisions and strictly
follow the 1998 Code of Conduct on Arms Sales.
77






74
DW staff, EU Proposes End to China Arms Embargo Deutsche Welle, April 15, 2004. Retrieved at
http://www.dw.de/eu-proposes-end-to-china-arms-embargo/a-1170380
75
Andrew Rettman, Leaked cable shows fragility of EU arms ban on China The EU Observer, July 25,
2011. Retrieved at http://euobserver.com/china/32658
76
Eugene Kogan, The European Union defence industry and the appeal of the Chinese market. (Wien: Bro
fr Sicherheitspolitik, Landesverteidigungsakad), 14.
77
Ibid.
32

CHAPTER 2
Interests of China to Expand its International Power and Influence
For China to improve as a superpower they would need both soft and hard power. These
two elements are crucial stepping stones for China to expand their international power and
influence. The lifting of the embargo would provide both for them. The embargo serves as a bad
image for China and a remembrance of their past human rights violations. China is trying to
improve its image internationally to increase their influence and promote a multipolar world.
78

China insists that a multipolar world, as opposed to one with a hegemonic state, is the ideal way
to solve international tensions.
79
This mirrors Frances stance in international relations. Both
states are working hand in hand to foster the march towards multipolarity.
80
Joint diplomacy
projects between the EU and China helped in fostering the ever-growing relationship between
the two.
81
In a way, the arms embargo is a hindrance to their relationship. In 2003, the EU
published in the European Security Strategy that they are interested in developing a strategic
partnership with China.
82
China expressed mutual interest by publishing the first EU Policy
Paper in the same year. The EU emphasized that with Chinas stronger influence and power in
the world that they should also take increased responsibilities.
83

As for China, the lifting of the arms embargo would serve as proof that the state is
improving in its international responsibility which comes hand in hand with the states growing
economic success and influence internationally.
84
China has shown their interest in cooperation in

78
Godwin, Paul HB. "China as Regional Hegemon?." The Asia-Pacific Region in Transition (2004).
79
Xiudian Dai. Understanding EU-China Relations: An Uncertain Partnership in the Making.
80
EllenBork. Keep a Common Front on Arms SalestoChina, Financial Times, 9
March. 2004.
81
Tim Luard. EU tackles China arms ban, BBC News, 25 March, 2004. Retrieved at
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3564527.stm
82
Simone Weske,. "The Role of France and Germany in EU-China Relations."CAP Working (2007).
83
Ibid.
84
Jerry Harris. "Emerging third world powers: China, India and Brazil." Race & class 46.3 (2005): 7-27.
33

the E3/EU+3 Initiative wherein Representatives from Germany, France, and the UK, as well as
representatives from the US, Russia, and China met in order to find a solution for the Iranian
nuclear problem.
85
Dialogues between the EU and China include typical issues like
environmental problems and the war against organized crime. However, human rights has been a
top priority of the EU in regards to China. Other issues include the status of Hong Kong and the
regional stability of East Asia.
Similar to France, China also considers the arms embargo as something that is out of
place and no longer relevant to contemporary times.
86
Another point to be emphasized is that the
EU also has arms embargoes on other states such as Syria, Zimbabwe, and Sudan and yet they do
not have an arms embargo on North Korea.
87
With these facts in place, it is easy to see why
China would find the arms embargo wounding and demeaning. China also hopes for a domino
effect wherein the US, following the lifting of the EU of their arms embargo against China,
would do so as well, giving access to the US advanced military technology.
88

However, the US remains to be a major actor preventing the lifting of the arms embargo.
The US remains to be heavily influential in a lot of EU decision-making. The US have
repeatedly emphasized that the strategic cooperation between the EU and the state would
drastically change if the embargo against China should be lifted.
89
Further actions have been
done by the US to keep China in check such as constantly monitoring Chinas human rights
record and reviewing data related to Chinas membership in the WTO.

85
OliverMeier. "European Efforts to Solve the Conflict over Irans Nuclear Programme: How Has the
European Union Performed?." Non-Proliferation Papers 27 (2013): 1-21.
86
Xiudian Dai. Understanding EU-China Relations: An Uncertain Partnership in the Making.
87
Department for Business, Innovation & Skills, Foreign & Commonwealth Office and HM
Treasury.Current arms embargoes and other restrictions. Retrieved at
https://www.gov.uk/current-arms-embargoes-and-other-restrictions
88
Ibid.
89
Ibid.
34

There are two main reasons given by Washington as to why the US insists on keeping the
embargo against China. First of all, Chinas human rights violation track, although much better
than in when the embargo was first implemented, is still generally poor. Second, if China were to
have access to better military technology then East Asian regional stability would be threatened.
An especially sensitive topic is that of Taiwan which is already threatened by Chinas military
power. Although the original purpose of the embargo against China was in regards to the
Tiananmen Massacre and not with Taiwan, it is still a security threat to the state if China were to
arm itself with better and technologically advanced military arms.
Even if the US argument regarding the arms embargo against China is not consistent, the
EU, even with Chinas constant request to lift the ban, still has it in place.
To acquire hard power and increase their security, China must have access to US and
European military technology. With the ban in place there is no way for them to do this.
Although individual member states are still able to sell technology that China is able to use in
their military, it is still limited to defensive and dual-use technology. But for China this would
not be enough for their hard power to be effective. China would not want to lift the ban if their
supply of arms and weapons they get from Russia, Ukraine, Israel
90
and other states in EU.
Although of course these EU states are only selling limited weapon that are not directly use in a
military combat. Furthermore, the possible EU arms sells to China would force other arms
dealers, such as Russia, to provide more advanced arms to China.
91


Relationship with Russia

90
Qin Ning. "The Failure of Lifting the EU Arms Embargo against China: The Analysis among Interests, Values
and Symbolism." (2009).
91
Kristin Archik, Richard F. Grimmett, and Shirley Kan. "European union's arms embargo on china: implications
and options for US policy." Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, 2005.
35

Externally, China is faced with criticism from the US and the EU that its economic
reform is not matched with equally vigorous political reforms to introduce democracy and
improve its human rights record. It is noteworthy that the fast rate of growth does not deny the
fact that China still has a long way to go before catching up with the western industrialized
world.
92
The European plan to lift the arms embargo on China has certainly posed a major
concern to Washington. The same issue was also indicative of the extent to which old Europe,
centered on the Franco-German alliance, could challenge the hegemony of the US.
93
Aside from
becoming a major energy supplier to the growing Chinese economy, which is demanding great
amounts of energy, Russia currently is supplying China military weapons and military
procurement. Since the end of the Cold War, SinoRussian relations have expanded and
deepened, resulting in arms deals and increasing economic ties.
94
Between 1991 and 2010, Russia
supplied more than 90 percent of Chinas weapons imports, with China accounting for nearly 40
percent of Russian arms exports.
95
While both countries desire to limit U.S. power and Western
influence, they still view each other as regional competitors in Central Asia.

Relationship with its Neighbor States in Asia
Self-economic interest was one common reason between the leading group of EU countries like
France, Germany and UK. Lifting the embargo, or at least support for lifting it, would give
Beijing a good reason to treat the EU more favorably in considering major commercial contracts.
Although the EU had argued that ending the ban on arms sale was part of a policy of engaging
with China, many officials in the EU conceded that investment opportunities in China were a big

92
Xiudian, Dai. Understanding EU-China Relations: An Uncertain Partnership in the Making. na, 2006.
93
Ibid.
94
Dean Cheng and Ariel Cohen. "How Washington Should Manage USRussiaChina Relations." The heritage
Foundation. Available athttp://thf_media. s3. amazonaws. com/2013/pdf/bg2841. pdf(Accessed June 24, 2014).
95
Ilya Kramnik, Russias Arms Exports: Farewell to Arms, Hello to Profits, RIA Novosti, November 3, 2010.
Available at http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20101103/161201525.html (Accessed June 24, 2014).
36

reason why the EU wanted to phase the embargo out.
96
The United States is a big factor why the
EU has not lifted the arms embargo on China. There are two specific concerns that have been
repeatedly cited by the US and according to them, Chinas poor human rights record is the first
issue. The second one would be lifting the embargo might pose a threat to regional security in
East Asia, in particular that of Taiwan.
97
The tensions between China and Taiwan had become
largely demilitarized in 1991 but it was only in 1995 that China made military threats against
Taiwan because of the growing demands for Taiwanese independence.
98
Regarding the Taiwan
issue, the US concern over the potential implications of lifting the arms embargo for the islands
security might be a realistic one even when the issue of Taiwan was not at all linked to the
imposition of the embargo.
99
China lacks the military power to enforce an effective blockade of
Taiwan and it is not militarily strong enough to achieve the goal of reunification without
sacrificing its fast-growing economy.
100
Each year Chinas defense expenditure grows
significantly but besides the obvious cross-strait relations with Taiwan, China shares maritime
borders with four countries, Japan and South Korea in the East China Sea, the Philippines and
Vietnam in the South China Sea. In the South China Sea, one of the worlds busiest waterways
with huge potential oil and gas fields to be exploited, China claims most of the water based on
historical facts and international law, a position that is disputed by its all its neighbors,
particularly Vietnam and the Philippines. ASEAN has attempted to resolve the disputes through
multi-lateral talks but China prefers to deal with each country on a bilateral basis.
101
The
presence of the US in the Pacific and its determination to maintain freedom of navigation also

96
Dombey, D. (2005) EU Drive to Lift China Arms Ban Falls Apart, Financial Times, 14 June.
97
Dai, 18.
98
Frans Pael van der Putten. The EU Arms Embargo, Taiwan and Security Independence between China, Europe
and the United States.ClingendaelInstitute of International Relations. TheHague, Netherlands. July 2007.
99
Dai, 19.
100
Van der Putten, 4.
101
Wenwen Shen. China and Its Neighbours: trouble relations. 1 March 2012, Available at http://www.eu-
asiacentre.eu/pub_details.php?pub_id=46 (Accessed June 26, 2014)
37

affects how China acts towards it neighbors. China has expressed concern at the American plans
to increase its military presence in the region. China has clearly been successful in resolving
border disputes with most of its neighbors in a win-win situation since the 1990s.
102
It took a
decade to reach agreement with Russia and the border with India remains unresolved.
103
It could
be useful for China to regress to the diplomatic language it used during its peaceful rise in
order to assure its neighbors that it is not a bully. It will be a difficult balancing act for China, on
the one hand demonstrating that it is back as a major power after the century of humiliation and
on the other wishing to be regarded as an important but peaceful neighbor.
104
On Taiwan, the EU
accepts the validity of the one China doctrine which precludes Taiwanese independence
while condemning the use of force which China has not renounced n principle. Any more activist
policy would require the EU to get involved in cross-straits relations which is something not
even the US has sought from Europe.
105
The last thing that China needs in its current situation is
an armed conflict with any of its neighbors. In an era of growing political and economic
interdependence such a development could only impact negatively on China. Japan argues that
the possible EU arms sells would enhance Chinas naval operation capability, which would
impose the threat to Japan due to the territorial disputes between the two in the East China Sea.
Moreover, the increasing military strength would provoke mainland China to solve the Taiwan
issue by force.
106
Another concern is Chinas arms export control could be ineffective for the

102
Ibid.
103
Ibid.
104
Ibid.
105
John Fox, and Franois Godement. "A Power Audit of EU-China Relations."ECFR 1 (2008).
106
Wenran Jiang (2005) Dips its Toe in the Taiwan Strait. Retrieved July 5, 2014 from Yale Global:
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=5362
38

arms re-export.
107
The lifting of the EU arms embargo could affect the balance of power between
China and Taiwan as well as Chinas other neighboring countries.
SYNTHESIS
There is no doubt that China is not just a rising power but already a global power. They
may lack some factors for them to be considered as a hegemon but they already have the
capability to be one. One of these factors would be Chinas lack of soft power. They may have a
say when it comes to economic and political aspects but they lack influence. What could be the
greatest influence a country could have but culture? Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea
and India are Chinas neighboring countries that have this even if they are not a great power.
Their cultural products have enjoyed far more global success than mainland China's. Even within
mainland China, TV shows, the movies, music, and other products of these Asian culture powers
are more popular than mainland Chinese products. Usually, when a product is made in China,
people would have this stereotype that it is fake but in reality, products made in China are
actually used worldwide, products from the country itself are the ones which are not. This is the
reason why the EU has not lifted the ban on China yet. Aside from lacking soft power, China is
not popular in promoting human rights and of course for the EU this is a big factor to consider.
But big countries who are members of the EU such as France and Germany do not seem to mind
this at all. These two countries have been open about supporting the removal of the arms
embargo on China. Even so, there are internal pressures within these two countries that were
elaborated.
France and Germany are the two EU member states that are vocal when it comes to the
arms embargo against China. French and German leaders speak how the embargo is outdated and

107
Frank Umbach. "Will the EU arms embargo towards PR China be lifted? Perspectives and implications." Taiwan
Perspective e-Paper 29 (2004).

39

unnecessary. France and Germany has maintained trade relations and is seeking to take
advantage of the arms and defence market. With the arms ban out of the way, China and the EU
will be able to gain more profit from the arm sales. As for the human rights concern, both states
believe that with cautious with exports control.
If France, Germany and other supporters of the lifting of the arms embargo were able to
succeed in removing the ban, there will an effect in the balance of power in Asia Pacific and
transatlantic relations of the European Union and the United States. If the embargo were to be
lifted, China would grow to be a superpower. A rising China would inevitably conflict with the
US, the sole superpower in the world. Chinas domination in Asia would also force Japan to
normalize its security and military policies and a second Sin-Japanese war would be
unavoidable. Moreover, Southeast Asian states would become the first victim of Chinas rise
because a stronger China would not hesitate to use force to solve its territorial disputes with the
five Asian states over the South China Sea.
108
However, traditional realists believe that the
assumptions stated are wrong. China has neither posed any military threat to other sovereign
countries (excluding Taiwan), nor have other countries forged an anti-China military alliance
in the post-Cold War era.
109

The antagonism between the US and the Soviet Union shaped the security dynamics in
Asia. Japan and the original five ASEAN states all leaned toward the West while China balanced
against the US with the Soviet Union in the 1950s, but cooperated with the US against the
Soviets in the 1970s and 1980s. Security in the region was actually managed by the two
superpowers rather than the Asian states.
110


108
Kai He, Institutional Balancing in the Asia Pacific: Economic Interdependence and Chinas Rise (NY:
Routledge, 2009).
109
Ibid.
110
Ibid
40

As EU and China relations, it may seem that EU-US relations will weaken in the process.
NATO was at its strongest during the Cold War but began to decline during the Iraq War. After
9/11, the US wanted to engage war against Iraq. Being alliances, US felt that Europe would join
them in the war but Europe was not very confident about that decision. Both entities did not have
a common enemy and had different views in the use of force. There was a conflict between
multilateralism and unilateralism. The US at the time was expressing American exceptionalism,
forcing that their way is the right way. It is possible that when China rises to become a
superpower, the US may not be delighted to share the spotlight. Chinas reputation for human
rights has not been the most impressive and one wrong move and the United States could more
likely try to put China down. China, eager to overthrow the US in their thrown, would not
hesitate to fight for it. The EU is then forced to choose a side. Being an ally of the US, it may be
expected that the EU would support it. However, it was seen in the Iraq War that since Europe
did not feel that there was an enemy that had them involved, they chose not to reinforce.
The presence of the United States is also a factor to consider when it comes to the lifting
of the arms embargo on China. The US has a great relationship with the UK which also one of
the most influential and powerful member of the EU. Pressures from the US also contribute on
the prevention of lifting the arms embargo. They would reason out the same thing as the EU why
the ban should not be lifted. First would be the lack of promotion of human rights and second
would be its effect on Chinas neighboring countries. China is already regarded as a threat to its
neighboring countries especially when it comes to territorial dispute. However, the US is more
concerned about Chinas neighbor, Taiwan.


41

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