Asian Institute of Technology

ELECTRONIC DOCUMENTATION FORM

1/ Type : Thesis
2/ Title : Prediction of inflow to Buon Tua Srah reservoir, Viet Nam
3/ Author : Vo Trong Son
4/ Names of Advisor and Committee Members :
Prof.Tawatchai Tingsanchali (Chaiperson)
Dr.Roberto S.Clemente (Member)
Dr.Sutat Weesakul (Member)
Dr.Vilas Nitivattananon (Member)
5/ School : School of Engineering and Technology
6/ Field of Study : Water Engineering and Management
7/ Abstract of the work :
Accurate forecast of inflow to reservoir is of particular interest for reservoir operation
and scheduling. For hydropower reservoir equipped with control gates, improved criteria for
gates operation can be assessed if reliable forecast of inflow to the reservoir is available.
Prediction of rainfall should be considered for extension of lead-time of discharge forecast.
This study presents three folds. Firstly, the application of the Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) model and Nam model for daily inflow forecast. Secondly, the application of the
Singular-Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with Principle Component Analysis technique and the
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for 1day and 2days ahead rainfall forecast. Thirdly,
the application of ANN model for 1day ahead, 2days ahead and 3days ahead discharge
forecasting using forecast of rainfall and streamflow. Besides, the combination of
Deterministic model and Stochastic model (BPNN+AR(3)) is used to improve the efficiency
of results.
The ANN model (WinNN32) has been applied for daily rainfall forecast based on the
Singular-Spectrum Analysis (SSA) with Principle Component Analysis technique. The ANN
model cannot be directly applied to forecast discontinuous signals, like rainfall time series, as
the universal function approximation theorems for neural networks system that requires the
continuity of the function to be approximated. In order to avoid the effect of discontinuous of
a signal, the SSA technique is applied to forecast the signal by decomposing the raw rainfall
time series into reconstructed components. Then, reconstructed components are simulated by
ANN to obtain rainfall time series forecast for several lead-times (1day and 2days
respectively). After that, rainfall forecast is obtained as inputs for prediction of inflow to the
Buon Tua Srah reservoir at Duc Xuyen station.
The results of the forecast of inflow to Buon Tua Srah reservoir at Duc Xuyen station
are found to be satisfactory for lead time from 1day to 3days.
8/ Keywords : Buon Tua Srah reservoir, Prediction of inflow, Duc Xuyen discharge station,
Principle Component Analysis (PCA), ANN model (Win32), Nam model.
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