A simple method of forecasting based

on fuzzy time series

S.R. Singh
*
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221 005, India
Abstract
In fuzzy time series forecasting various methods have been developed to establish the fuzzy relations on time series data
having linguistic values for forecasting the future values. However, the major problem in fuzzy time series forecasting is the
accuracy in the forecasted values. The present paper proposes a new method of fuzzy time series forecasting based on dif-
ference parameters. The proposed method is a simplied computational approach for the forecasting. The method has
been implemented on the historical enrollment data of University of Alabama (adapted by Song and Chissom) and the
forecasted values have been compared with the results of the existing methods to show is superiority. Further, the proposed
method has also been implemented on a real life problem of crop production forecast of wheat crop and the results have
been compared with other methods.
2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Fuzzy time series; Time variant; Fuzzy membership grade; Linguistic variables; Fuzzy logical relations
1. Introduction
Fuzzy set theory and the concept of linguistic variables and its application to approximate reasoning devel-
oped by Zadeh [20,21] has been successfully employed by Song and Chissom [1012] in fuzzy time series fore-
casting. Song and Chissom developed the fuzzy time series models and implemented the developed models on
the historical enrollment data of University of Alabama.
Chen [1] presented a simplied method for time series forecasting using the arithmetic operations rather
than complicated max-min composition operations, there are many researchers [15,13,6,3] used the concept
of fuzzy time series in forecasting. Huarng [5] presented a heuristic model for time series forecasting using heu-
ristic increasing and decreasing relations to improve the forecast of enrollments and also implemented it for
Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) forecasting.
Chen [2] proposed a method of forecasting enrollments based on high-order fuzzy time series of various
orders: second, third, fourth and fth. He raised some points of ambiguity to the trend in forecast and suggested
to use high-order fuzzy logical relationship groups to deal with ambiguity. On comparative study, the
0096-3003/$ - see front matter 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.amc.2006.07.128
*
On leave from G.B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar 263 145, India.
E-mail address: singh_shivaraj@redimail.com
Applied Mathematics and Computation 186 (2007) 330339
www.elsevier.com/locate/amc
forecasted values obtained by third-order model were found to be of better accuracy. Song [14] extended the
Chens study by using an average autocorrelation function as a measure of the dependency between fuzzy data
for the selection of suitable order for fuzzy time series model. In his study he found that though the rst-order
model is a good choice but a second or third-order model will be a better choice. Lee and Chou [7] modied the
Chens method of dening the Universe of discourse by redening the Universe of discourse and subsequent
partition of intervals of Universe of discourse as supports of the fuzzy numbers representing the linguistic val-
ues to the linguistic variable. Chen and Hsu [4] proposed a rst-order time variant method to forecast enroll-
ments by dividing the universe of discourse into intervals and then re dividing these intervals into four, three,
two and one according to the frequency of their occurrences and framed some rules for forecasting. Yu [18,19]
presented a rened fuzzy time series model and a weighted fuzzy time series model for TAIEX forecasting.
Own and Yu [9] presented a heuristic higher-order model by introducing a heuristic function. The changes in
time series (the trend) are used as the heuristic knowledge to specify the dierence between times to an increase,
a decrease or no change as a parameter and applied to model to forecast TAIFEX. Tsaur et al. [16] used the
concept of entropy to measure the degree of fuzziness of a system and to determine a time T of which the data
approaches steady state. The concept was applied to determine the minimum value of invariant time index T
and the method was implemented to forecast enrollments. The major objective for the various workers in the
area of fuzzy time series forecasting is to develop a method of providing better accuracy in the forecasted values.
In this paper, we present a new method for forecasting the enrollments with fuzzy time series using a dif-
ference parameter as fuzzy relation for forecasting. It provides simple computational algorithms of complexity
in linear order. It minimizes the time of generating relational equations by using complex min-max composi-
tion operations and the time consumed by the various defuzzication process. It overcomes the diculty of
searching a suitable defuzzication procedure providing crisp output of better accuracy. The proposed algo-
rithms have been implemented for forecasting the enrollments of University of Alabama and the results have
been compared with the existing methods to show its superiority. Further, its suitability in general has been
examined in a real life problem by implementing it on the historical time series data of crop (wheat) produc-
tion of Pantnagar farm, G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar (India). The moti-
vation of the implementation of fuzzy time series in crop production forecast is that the Agricultural
production system is one of the real life problems falling in the category having uncertainty in known and
some unknown parameters. In agricultural production process, even all the standard practices of cropping
are adapted; the uncertainty lies in the crop production due to some uncontrolled parameters. Further the
crop production being dealt with the eld data, precision of data is always a matter of concern.
2. Basics of fuzzy time series
In view of making our exposition self contained, the various denitions and properties of fuzzy time series
forecasting found in [121] are summarized and is presented as:
Denition 1. A fuzzy set is a class of objects with a continuum of grade of membership. Let U be the Universe
of discourse with U = {u
1
, u
2
, u
3
, . . . , u
n
}, where u
i
are possible linguistic values of U, then a fuzzy set of
linguistic variables A
i
of U is dened by
A
i
l
A
i
u
1
=u
1
l
A
i
u
2
=u
2
l
A
i
u
3
=u
3
l
A
i
u
n
=u
n
; 1
where l
A
i
is the membership function of the fuzzy set A
i
, such that l
A
i
: U ! 0; 1.
If u
j
is the member of A
i
, then l
A
i
u
j
is the degree of belonging of u
j
to A
i
.
Denition 2. Let Y(t) (t = . . ., 0, 1, 2, 3, . . .), is a subset of R, be the Universe of discourse on which fuzzy sets
f
i
(t), (i = 1, 2, 3, . . .) are dened and F(t) is the collection of f
i
, then F(t) is dened as fuzzy time series on Y(t).
Denition 3. Suppose F(t) is caused only by F(t 1) and is denoted by F(t 1) ! F(t); then there is a fuzzy
relationship between F(t) and F(t 1) and can be expressed as the fuzzy relational equation:
F t F t 1 Rt; t 1 2
here, is MaxMin composition operator. The relation R is called rst-order model of F(t).
S.R. Singh / Applied Mathematics and Computation 186 (2007) 330339 331
Further if fuzzy relation R(t, t 1) of F(t) is independent of time t,that is to say for dierent times t
1
and t
2
,
R(t
1
, t
1
1) = R(t
2
, t
2
1), then F(t) is called a time invariant fuzzy time series.
Denition 4. If F(t) is caused by more fuzzy sets, F(t n), F(t n + 1), . . . , F(t 1), the fuzzy relationship is
represented by
A
i1
; A
i2
; . . . ; A
in
! A
j
here, F(t n) = A
i1
, F(t n + 1) = A
i2
, . . . , F(t 1) = A
in
. This relationship is called nth-order fuzzy time ser-
ies model.
Denition 5. Suppose F(t) is caused by a F(t 1), F(t 2), . . . , and F(t m) (m > 0) simultaneously and the
relations are time variant. The F(t) is said to be time variant fuzzy time series and the relation can be expressed
as the fuzzy relational equation:
F t F t 1 R
w
t; t 1 3
here, w > 1 is a time (number of years) parameter by which the forecast F(t) is being aected. Various com-
plicated computational methods are available to for the computations of the Relation R
w
(t, t 1).
In the next section, we are proposing simple computational algorithms for computation of these relations
and its implementation in forecasting. In the present study, past three years time series data being considered
in framing the fuzzy rules to impose on current year fuzzied enrollment to the forecast of next year
enrollments. The computational algorithms of the proposed model of order three based on dierence
parameters are presented.
3. Computational algorithm of proposed method for fuzzy time series forecasting
In this section, we present the stepwise procedure of the proposed method for fuzzy time series forecasting
based on historical time series data.
1. Dene the Universe of discourse, U based on the range of available historical time series data, by rule
U = [D
min
D
1
, D
max
D
2
] where D
1
and D
2
are two proper positive numbers.
2. Partition the Universe of discourse into equal length of intervals: u
1
, u
2
, . . . , u
m
. The number of intervals
will be in accordance with the number of linguistic variables (fuzzy sets) A
1
, A
2
, . . . , A
m
to be considered.
3. Construct the fuzzy sets A
i
in accordance with the intervals in Step2 and apply the triangular membership
rule to each intervals in each fuzzy set so constructed.
4. Fuzzify the historical data and establish the fuzzy logical relationships by the rule:If A
i
is the fuzzy produc-
tion of year n and A
j
is the fuzzify production of year n + 1, then the fuzzy logical relation is denoted as
A
i
! A
j
. Here A
i
is called current state and A
j
is next state.
5. Rules for forcasting
Some notations used are dened as
[
*
A
j
] is corresponding interval u
j
for which membership in A
j
is Supremum (i.e. 1)
L[
*
A
j
] is the lower bound of interval u
j
U[
*
A
j
] is the upper bound of interval u
j
l[
*
A
j
] is the length of the interval u
j
whose membership in A
j
is Supremum (i.e. 1)
M[
*
A
j
] is the mid value of the interval u
j
having Supremum value in A
j
For a fuzzy logical relation A
i
! A
j
:
A
i
is the fuzzied enrollments of year n
A
j
is the fuzzied enrollments of year n + 1
E
i
is the actual enrollments of year n
E
i1
is the actual enrollments of year n 1
332 S.R. Singh / Applied Mathematics and Computation 186 (2007) 330339
E
i2
is the actual enrollments of year n 2
F
j
is the crisp forecasted enrollments of the years n + 1
This Model of order three utilizes the historical data of year n 2, n 1, n for framing rules to implement
on fuzzy logical relation, A
i
! A
j
, where A
i
, the current state, is the fuzzied enrollments of year n and A
j
, the
next state, is fuzzied enrollments of year n + 1. The proposed method for forecasting is mentioned as Rule for
generating the relations between the time series data of years n 2, n 1, n for forecasting the enrollment of
year n + 1.
Rule: Forecasting enrollments for year n + 1 (i.e. 1974) and onwards.
For k = 3 to . . . K (end of time series data)
Obtained fuzzy logical Relation for year k to k + 1
A
i
! A
j
Compute
D
i
= k(E
i
E
i1
)j j(E
i1
E
i2
)k
X
i
= E
i
+ D
i
/2
XX
i
= E
i
D
i
/2
Y
i
= E
i
+ D
i
YY
i
= E
i
D
i
For I = 1 to 4
If X
i
PL[
*
A
j
] And X
i
6 U[
*
A
j
]
Then P
1
= X
i
; n = 1
Else P
1
= 0; n = 0
Next I
If XX
i
PL[
*
A
j
] And XX
i
6 U[
*
A
j
]
Then P
2
= XX
i
; m = 1
Else P
2
= 0; m = 0
Next I
If Y
i
PL[
*
A
j
] And Y
i
6 U[
*
A
j
]
Then P
3
= Y
i
; o = 1
Else P
3
= 0; o = 0
Next I
If YY
i
PL[
*
A
j
] And YY
i
6 U[
*
A
j
]
Then P
4
= YY
i
; p = 1
Else P
4
= 0; p = 0
B = P
1
+ P
2
+ P
3
+ P
4
If B = 0 Then F
j
= M(
*
A
j
)
Else F
j
= (B + M(
*
A
j
))/(m + n + o + k + 1)
Next k
4. Computations of enrollments forecast
Algorithm of the proposed method is being implemented on the time series data of enrollments at Univer-
sity of Alabama and the step wise results obtained are:
Step 1. Universe of discourse U = [13000, 20000]
Step 2. Partition of universe of discourse U in the seven intervals (linguistic values)
u
1
13000; 14000; u
2
14000; 15000; u
3
15000; 16000; u
4
16000; 17000;
u
5
17000; 18000; u
6
18000; 19000; u
7
19000; 20000:
S.R. Singh / Applied Mathematics and Computation 186 (2007) 330339 333
Step 3. Dene seven fuzzy sets A
1
, A
2
, . . . , A
7
as linguistic variables on the universe of discourse U. These
fuzzy variables are being dened as:
and the membership grades to these fuzzy sets of linguistic values are dened as
A
1
1=u
1
0:5=u
2
0=u
3
0=u
4
0=u
5
0=u
6
0=u
7
;
A
2
0:5=u
1
1=u
2
0:5=u
3
0=u
4
0=u
5
0=u
6
0=u
7
;
A
3
0=u
1
0:5=u
2
1=u
3
0:5=u
4
0=u
5
0=u
6
0=u
7
;
A
4
0=u
1
0=u
2
0:5=u
3
1=u
4
0:5=u
5
0=u
6
0=u
7
;
A
5
0=u
1
0=u
2
0=u
3
0:5=u
4
1=u
5
0:5=u
6
0=u
7
;
A
6
0=u
1
0=u
2
0=u
3
0=u
4
0:5=u
5
1=u
6
0:5=u
7
;
A
7
0=u
1
0=u
2
0=u
3
0=u
4
0=u
5
0:5=u
6
1=u
7
:
Step 4. The fuzzied historical time series data of enrollments are obtained and fuzzy logical relations are
established (Table 1).
Step 5. Using the proposed algorithms, (Rule for forecasting) in Section 3, the computations have been car-
ried out for the proposed model and the results obtained are placed in the table along with results of other
models (Table 2).
A
1
Poor enrollment
A
2
Below average enrollment
A
3
Average enrollment
A
4
Good enrollment
A
5
Very good enrollment
A
6
Excellent enrollment
A
7
Extraordinary enrollment
Table 1
Fuzzy historical enrollments
Year Actual enrollments Fuzzied enrollments
1971 13,055 A
1
1972 13,563 A
1
1973 13,867 A
1
1974 14,696 A
2
1975 15,460 A
3
1976 15,311 A
3
1977 15,603 A
3
1978 15,861 A
3
1979 16,807 A
4
1980 16,919 A
4
1981 16,388 A
4
1982 15,433 A
3
1983 15,497 A
3
1984 15,145 A
3
1985 15,163 A
3
1986 15,984 A
3
1987 16,859 A
4
1988 18,150 A
6
1989 18,970 A
6
1990 19,328 A
7
1991 19,337 A
7
1992 18,876 A
6
334 S.R. Singh / Applied Mathematics and Computation 186 (2007) 330339
Table 3
Comparison of mean square error (MSE) of proposed method with other methods
Models/
MSE
Proposed
model
Chen
model
SC_time
invariant
SC_time
variant
Huarng
heuristic
Lee and Chou
[7]
Tsaur et al.
[16]
MSE 133700.4 439420.8 458437.5 775686.8 239483.1 240047 138322.4
Enrollment forecast
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92
Year
E
n
r
o
l
l
m
e
n
t
s
Actual
Proposed
Lee &
Chou
Tsaur
Chen
Heuristic
Fig. 1. Actual enrollments vs forecasted enrollments.
Table 2
Forecasted enrollments by dierent models at a glance
Year Actual
enroll
Proposed
model
Chen
method
SC_time
invariant
SC_time
variant
Huarng
heuristic
Lee and Chou
[7]
Tsaur et al.
[16]
1971 13,055
1972 13,563
1973 13,867
1974 14,696 14,286 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,568 14,000
1975 15,460 15,361 15,500 15,500 14,700 15,500 15,654 15,500
1976 15,311 15,468 16,000 16,000 14,800 15,500 15,654 15,500
1977 15,603 15,512 16,000 16,000 15,400 16,000 15,654 16,000
1978 15,861 15,582 16,000 16,000 15,500 16,000 15,654 16,000
1979 16,807 16,500 16,000 16,000 15,500 16,000 16,197 16,000
1980 16,919 16,361 16,833 16,813 16,800 17,500 17,283 16,500
1981 16,388 16,362 16,833 16,813 16,200 16,000 17,283 16,500
1982 15,433 15,744 16,833 16,789 16,400 16,000 16,197 15,500
1983 15,497 15,560 16,000 16,000 16,800 16,000 15,654 15,500
1984 15,145 15,498 16,000 16,000 16,400 15,500 15,654 15,500
1985 15,163 15,306 16,000 16,000 15,500 16,000 15,654 15,500
1986 15,984 15,442 16,000 16,000 15,500 16,000 15,654 15,500
1987 16,859 16,558 16,000 16,000 15,500 16,000 16,197 16,500
1988 18,150 17,187 16,833 16,813 16,800 17,500 17,283 18,500
1989 18,970 18,475 19,000 19,000 19,300 19,000 18,369 19,000
1990 19,328 19,382 19,000 19,000 17,800 19,000 19,454 19,000
1991 19,337 19,487 19,000 19,000 19,300 19,500 19,454 19,000
1992 18,876 18,744 19,000 19,600 19,000
S.R. Singh / Applied Mathematics and Computation 186 (2007) 330339 335
To have a comparison of accuracy in forecasted values of our proposed models with other models, the MSE
in forecast have been computed as
Mean square error MSE
X
n
i1
Actual production
i
Forecasted production
i

2
" #,
n
and the values of MSE of above models are placed in Table 3.
The comparative study of MSE, as shown in Table 3 exhibits that the forecast by the proposed method are
of higher accuracy over the others. The trends in forecast of the three above mentioned methods are being
illustrated in Fig. 1.
5. Computation of wheat production forecast
In this section, the proposed method is implemented into real life problem of a dynamical system containing
fuzziness like crop production. In view of suitability as presented in Section 4, the proposed model is being
implemented for forecasting the Wheat production. The historical time series data of Wheat production are
of the huge farm of G.B. Pant University, Pantnagar, India. The historical time series data of wheat produc-
tion is in terms of productivity in kg per hectare. The method has been implemented and computations carried
out are presented stepwise (Table 4).
Step 1. Universe of discourse U = [1400, 3500].
Step 2. The Universe of discourse is partitioned into seven intervals of linguistic values:
u
1
1400; 1700; u
2
1700; 2000; u
3
2000; 2300; u
4
2300; 2600;
u
5
2600; 2900; u
6
2900; 3200; u
7
3200; 3500:
Step 3. Dene seven fuzzy sets A
1
, A
2
, . . . , A
7
having some linguistic values on the universe of discourse U.
The linguistic values to these fuzzy variables are as follows:
A
1
Poor production
A
2
Below average production
A
3
Average production
A
4
Good production
A
5
Very good production
A
6
Excellent production
A
7
Bumper production
Table 4
The historical data of wheat production
Year Production (kg/ha) Year Production (kg/ha) Year Production (kg/ha)
1981 2730 1988 3407 1995 2318
1982 2957 1989 2238 1996 2617
1983 2382 1990 2895 1997 2254
1984 2572 1991 3276 1998 2910
1985 2642 1992 1431 1999 3434
1986 2700 1993 2248 2000 2795
1987 2872 1994 2857 2001 3000
336 S.R. Singh / Applied Mathematics and Computation 186 (2007) 330339
The membership grades to these fuzzy sets of linguistic variables are dened as
A
1
1=u
1
0:5=u
2
0=u
3
0=u
4
0=u
5
0=u
6
0=u
7
;
A
2
0:5=u
1
1=u
2
0:5=u
3
0=u
4
0=u
5
0=u
6
0=u
7
;
A
3
0=u
1
0:5=u
2
1=u
3
0:5=u
4
0=u
5
0=u
6
0=u
7
;
A
4
0=u
1
0=u
2
0:5=u
3
1=u
4
0:5=u
5
0=u
6
0=u
7
;
A
5
0=u
1
0=u
2
0=u
3
0:5=u
4
1=u
5
0:5=u
6
0=u
7
;
A
6
0=u
1
0=u
2
0=u
3
0=u
4
0:5=u
5
1=u
6
0:5=u
7
;
A
7
0=u
1
0=u
2
0=u
3
0=u
4
0=u
5
0:5=u
6
1=u
7
:
Step 4. The historical time series data is fuzzied in order to have the fuzzy logical relations and the fuzzy
logical relations obtained are as (Table 5 and 6).
Table 5
Fuzzy logical relationships of the historical wheat production
A
5
! A
6
A
6
! A
4
A
4
! A
4
A
4
! A
5
A
5
! A
5
A
5
! A
5
A
5
! A
7
A
7
! A
3
A
3
! A
5
A
5
! A
7
A
7
! A
1
A
1
! A
3
A
3
! A
5
A
5
! A
4
A
4
! A
5
A
5
! A
3
A
3
! A
6
A
6
! A
7
A
7
! A
5
A
5
! A
6
Table 6
Fuzzy logical relationship groups
1 A
1
! A
3
2 A
3
! A
5
A
3
! A
6
3 A
4
! A
4
A
4
! A
5
4 A
5
! A
3
A
5
! A
4
A
5
! A
5
A
5
! A
6
A
5
! A
7
5 A
6
! A
4
A
6
! A
7
6 A
7
! A
1
A
7
! A
3
A
7
! A
5
Table 7
Forecasted wheat production
Year Actual production (kg/ha) Forecasted by Chen model Forecasted by proposed model
1981 2730
1982 2957 2750
1983 2382 2900
1984 2572 2600 2503
1985 2642 2600 2757.25
1986 2700 2750 2738
1987 2872 2750 2710
1988 3407 2750 3350
1989 2238 2150 2150
1990 2895 2900 2811
1991 3276 2750 3378.5
1992 1431 2150 1550
1993 2248 2150 2156.5
1994 2857 2900 2756
1995 2318 2750 2450
1996 2617 2600 2750
1997 2254 2750 2150
1998 2910 2900 3050
1999 3434 2900 3276.5
2000 2795 2150 2750
2001 3000 2750 2980
S.R. Singh / Applied Mathematics and Computation 186 (2007) 330339 337
Step 5. The forecasted values have been obtained by using the algorithms in Section 3. The crisp forecasted
values have also been obtained for the Wheat production by arithmetic operations as carried out by Chen
in forecasting the enrollments. The forecasted production of wheat obtained by these two methods is placed
in Table 7.
Mean square error MSE
X
n
i1
Actual production
i
Forecasted production
i

2
" #,
n
is calculated for comparing the forecasted results of all the three methods.
The comparison of MSE in Table 8 shows the superiority of the proposed models over the Chens model as
it provides forecast of higher accuracy. Further the trends in forecast by the proposed and Chens method
have been compared with the forecast by the other available commonly used methods like: linear model,
moving average method, tting the polynomial of degree two and three and have been illustrated in
Fig. 2. It is evident from the R
2
values that the mentioned generally used statistical methods are not suitable
in such case of forecast in fuzzy environment.
Table 8
MSE of wheat production forecast
Models/MSE Proposed method Chen method
MSE 11,098.96 136,730.6
actual
wheat production forecast
prodct
3500
Chen model
3000
proposed
model
2500
Linear
p
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n
(actual
prodct)
2000
3 per. Mov.
Avg.
y = 8.7534x + 2609.4
R
2
= 0.0093
(actual
prodct)
y = 1.1061x
3
- 25.783x
2
+ 145.78x + 2531.7
R
2
= 0.1583
y = 5.7412x
2
- 100.33x + 2973
1500
Poly.
R
2
= 0.0944
(actual
prodct)
Poly.
1000
(actual
year
prodct)
Fig. 2. Actual wheat production vs forecasted wheat production.
338 S.R. Singh / Applied Mathematics and Computation 186 (2007) 330339
6. Conclusions
In this paper we have proposed a simple computational method for fuzzy time series forecasting. The algo-
rithms of the proposed method are simple and have the complexity of linear order. It minimizes the compli-
cated computations of fuzzy relational matrices and search for a suitable defuzzication process and provides
the forecasted values of better accuracy. The method has been implemented on the historical time series data
of enrollments of University of Alabama to have a comparative study with the existing methods. Further the
method has also been implemented on crop (wheat) production forecast. The forecasted values obtained by
the method show its suitability in fuzzy time series forecasting of crop production without any prior knowl-
edge of the production governing parameters.
Acknowledgements
Author is highly thankful to General Manager, Farms, Govind Ballabh Pant University of Agriculture and
Technology, Pantnagar263 145, Udham Singh Nagar, Uttaranchal, India for providing the valuable histor-
ical time series data of crop (wheat) production.
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