Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin November 2009

The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- November 2009
THE GAMBIA MONTHLY

ECONOMIC BULLETIN1
November 2009
Institutional Support Project for Economic and Financial Governance (ISPEFG)

Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs (MOFEA)
The Republic of Gambia
The Quadrangle, Banjul, the Gambia
1
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin provides an update on the recent economic developments and
policies in the Republic of the Gambia. The Bulletin is prepared, under the overall guidance of the
Honorable Permanent Secretary Mr. Serign Cham, by a research team comprising Tamsir Cham,
Director; Momodou Taal and Yaya Drammeh, Principal Economists; Amie Khan, Senior Economist and
Ceesay Chiel, Economist in the Economic Management and Planning Unit (EMPU) and Tarun Das,
Macroeconomic Adviser (ISPEFG); with key inputs from the Debt Management Adviser, Fiscal/Financial
Adviser, ISPEFG, Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs (MOFEA), the Central Bank of Gambia
(CBG), the Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS), and the Gambian Revenue Authority (GRA).
Any questions and feedback can be addressed to: Either Tamsir Cham (tamsirc@hotmail.com) or
Tarun Das (das.tarun@hotmail.com)
1
Political and Administrative Structure
The Gambia is divided into seven regions comprising two Municipalities namely, Banjul City
Council (BCC) and the Kanifing Municipal Council (KMC) and five provincial administrative
regions namely, Western Region (WR), North Bank Region (NBR), Lower River Region (LRR),
Central River Region (CRR) and Upper River Region (URR).
Politically, the relevant units are Local Government Areas (urban), Districts, Wards and Villages.
The Gambia has 35 districts and about 1870 villages with an average of 13 compounds.
Basic Facts about Gambia:
Fiscal year: 1st January to 31st December
Items (Year) Units Value Rank in the World
from top
in descending order
Area (2009) Sq. km. 11,300 171 out of 248
countries
Population (2008) Million 1.735 148 out of 241
countries
GDP PPP (2004) Million US$ 3284 167 out of 224
countries
GDP Nominal (2006) Million US$ 511 199 out of 229
countries
GDP PPP per capita (2004) US$ 1945 177 out of 223
countries
GDP per capita (2006) US$ 329 192 out of 207
countries
2
Poverty Ratio (% of people Percent 59 7 out of 59 countries

below One-US$) (2000)
Source: http://www.nationmaster.com
3
Contents
Items Page
ISPEFG Project/ Research Team and Document History 4
Highlights 5-6
At a Glance 7
1. Global Economic Outlook 8-14

1.1 Global recovery is uneven, weak, slow and painful 8
1.2 Global Commodity Prices and Inflation 13
2. Current State of the Gambian Economy 15-36

2.1 Overall and Sectoral GDP Growth Rates 15
2.2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation 17
2.3 Projection of CPI inflation for the year 2009 19
2.4 Government Fiscal Performance 20

2.5 Projections of Fiscal Outturn for 2009 22
2.6 Domestic Debt and Outstanding Treasury Bills 24
2.7 Treasury Bills Yields 25
2.8 Money Supply 26
2.9 Performance of Commercial Banks 27
2.10 Commercial Banks’ Assets 28
2.11 Commercial Banks’ Liabilities 29
2.12 Interest Rates and Central Bank’s Policy Rates 30
2.13 BOP, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rates 31
2.14 Exchange Rates 36
4
ISPEFG Project and Monthly Bulletin Research Team
Project Supervisor Honorable Mr. Serign Cham,

Permanent Secretary
Project Coordinator Mr. Momodou Cham
Director (EMPU) Dr. Tamsir Cham

Principal Economist Mr. Momodou Taal
Principal Economist Mr. Yaya Drammeh
Senior Economist Ms. Amie Khan
Economist Ms. Ceesay Chilel
Technical Assistant (Debt Management) Mr. Adam Aikuta
Technical Assistant (Fiscal/ Financial) Mr. Dan Mambule Mwanje
Technical Assistant (Macroeconomic) Dr. Tarun Das
Document History:
This report is an update of the following reports prepared by the Research Team:
1. The Gambia Quarterly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-30, 31 March 2009.

2. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, 31 March 2009.
3. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-40, 30 April 2009.
4. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, 30 April 2009.
5. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-39, 31 May 2009.
6. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-15, 31 May 2009.
7. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-1, pp.01-22, June 2009.
8. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-2, pp.23-46, June 2009.
9. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, June 2009.
10. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-1, pp.01-22, July 2009.
11. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-2, pp.23-46, July 2009.
12. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, July 2009.
13. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, August 2009.
14. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, September 2009.
15. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-25, October 2009.
HIGHLIGHTS
5
Impact of Global Financial Crisis and Economic Slowdown
• As per the IMF projections made in the WEO October 2009, global output is expected to
contract by about 1% in 2009 followed by a positive growth of 3% in 2010. IMF concludes that although
the global economy has started to pull out of the unprecedented recession witnessed since the World
War-II, recovery is uneven, slow, and jobless. In African developing economies, growth is projected to
slow down significantly from 5.2 percent in 2008 to 2 percent in 2009.
Global Food and Oil Prices
• Due to sluggish demand and economic slowdown, there were significant decline of world
commodity prices including food and petroleum since August 2008. However, since March 2009
commodity prices have started rising again in response to some increase in global demand, but
commodity prices still rule much below the peaks reached in 2008.
• At the beginning of 2009, given weakness in the Chinese demand and negative growth in the US
and EU and OPEC’s decision to have no supply cuts, global crude oil prices were projected to remain
soft and rule around $51 per barrel in 2009. However, since April 2009 petroleum prices started rising
and increased to US$73.19 per barrel in October 2009. Recent forward markets project oil prices around
$74 for 2010, which is not much above current price.
Impact on the Gambian Economy
• A global crisis of this magnitude is bound to have adverse impact on any country. The Gambian
economy was not an exception and witnessed a decline in exports, remittances, foreign
investment, tourist arrivals, manufacturing production and wholesale and retail trade in 2008.
• However, thanks to bumper crops contributed by favorable monsoon at home and very good
performance by electricity, telecom and financial sectors, the real GDP growth at constant market
prices improved from 6% in 2007 to 6.3% in 2008, supported by a spectacular growth of 26.6% in
agriculture GDP and a growth of 4.2% in services GDP despite decline by 1.2% in industrial GDP.
• Even though the Gambian economy was relatively insulated from the first round effects of the
global financial crisis, its spread to the real sectors of the global economy had adverse impact on
the Gambian manufacturing production, selected services and trade sectors. In particular,
exports, retail trade, tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) declined since the second half of
2008 due to weak global demand.
• Due to fall in tourist’s income and foreign investment and deceleration of agricultural growth, real
GDP growth rate in 2009 is expected to decelerate to 5%, aided by a growth of 5.5% in
agriculture production, 3.5% in industry and 5.7% in services production.
CPI Inflation
• As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual point-to-point CPI inflation decelerated
significantly from 6.5% (Food 8.6% and Non-Food 3.9%) in October 2008 to 2.3% (Food 2.6%
and Non-Food 1.9%) (in October 2009. On the contrary, the 12-month average inflation rate
accelerated from 4.3% in October 2008 to 5.3% in October 2009.
• Among other groups in October 2009, housing and utilities recorded an annual inflation of 2.1%,
restaurants and hotels 1.8% and miscellaneous goods and services 5%.
6
Government Fiscal Performance
• Government’s fiscal performance was better in Jan-Oct 2009 than Jan-Oct 2008. During Jan-Oct
2009, total domestic revenue increased by 14.3% over Jan-Oct 2008 aided by 14.5% increase in
taxes and 12.5% increase in non-tax revenues; while total expenditures and net lending
increased by 23.8% aided by 17.5% increase in current expenditure and 40.9% increase of
capital expenditure and net lending.
• Overall, there was a fiscal deficit of D556 million in Jan-Oct 2009, up from D377 million in Jan-Oct
2007, but basic balance and basic primary balance improved to D181 million and D806 million
respectively in Jan-Oct 2009 from D65 million and D660 million respectively in Jan-Oct 2008.
Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Yields
• At the end of Oct 2009, outstanding domestic debt stood at D6 billion (24% of GDP), the same as
the outstanding domestic debt at D6 billion (26.6% of GDP) a year ago.
• The share of Treasury bills increased from 79.2% at end-Oct 2008 to 84.7% at end-Oct 2009,
while share of Sukuk Al-Salam declined from 2.1% to 2%, that of Govt. bonds remained
unchanged at 4.2%, and that of NIB treasury bills declined from 14.5% to 9.1% over the period.
• Yields on treasury bills fluctuated widely in recent months. As expected, the higher the maturity
of treasury bills, the higher is the yield. However, despite stability in deposit rates and significant
decline of annual point-to-point CPI inflation rate from 7% in Jan 2009 to 2.3% in Oct 2009,
average yields on the 91-day bills increased from 10.5% in Jan 2009 to 10.8% in Oct 2009, yield
on 182-day bills in Oct 2009 at 12.1% was the same as in Jan 2009, and yield on 364 day bills
declined marginally from 14.4% in Jan 2009 to 14.2% in Oct 2009.
Money Supply and Bank Credits
• Annual growth rate of money supply (M2) accelerated from 11.1% in Sep 2008 to 20.7% in Sep
2009, aided by 4% growth in currency, 20.1% growth in demand deposits, 17.8% growth in
savings deposits and 40.7% growth in time deposits. On the demand side, growth was mainly
due to 32.7% growth in net foreign assets, while net domestic assets increased by only 12.7%.
• Domestic credit increased from D5.8 billion in Sept 2008 to D6.9 billion in Sept 2009, supported
by 21.3% growth in government borrowing, 82.9% growth in credits to public entities and 13.3%
growth in credits to the private sector, over a year ago.
Balance of Payments, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rate
• Preliminary BOP estimates the CBG for Jan-June 2009 indicated a lower overall deficit at
D348.44 million compared to D376.5 million in Jan-June 2008. The current account recorded a
surplus of D163.48 million in Jan-June 2009 compared to a deficit of D276.1 million in Jan-June
2008. The capital and financial account balance worsened to deficit of D511.92 million in Jan-
June 2009 from a deficit D100.4 million in Jan-June 2008.
• Gross official reserves, including SDR allocation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as
at end-September stood at US$141.3 million, equivalent to 6.0 months of import cover.
• At end-Nov 2009, Dalasi has depreciated by ----% against British Pound, by ----% against US$,
by ----% against CHF, by ----% against Euro and by ----% against CFA over end-Nov 2008.
7
At a Glance- October 2009

Economic Latest Status in the Status in the Outlook for 2009
Indicators Reference latest reference Corresponding
Period period period in the
previous year
Real GDP (MP) Calendar year Overall 5.0 Overall 6.3 Overall 5.0
Growth rate (%) 2009 Agriculture 5.5 Agriculture 26.6 Agriculture 5.5
Industry 3.5 Industry (-) 1.2 Industry 3.5
Services 5.7 Services 4.2 Services 5.7
CPI inflation (%) Oct 2009 Overall 2.3 Overall 6.5 Expected to remain
Food 2.6 Food 8.6 stable in the remaining
Non-food 1.9 Non-food 3.9 months of the year
Brent crude oil Oct 2009 Average Average US$80 May stabilize around
price (US$/ brl) US$73.19 US$74 by the end-2009
Growth rate (%) of Jan-Oct 2009 20.9 (-) 3.9
Revenue & grants
Growth rate (%) of Jan-Oct 2009 23.8 14.9 Overall fiscal performance
Exp & Net Lending in 2009 is expected to be
Overall fiscal bal. Jan-Oct 2009 (-) 2.2 (-) 1.7 better than in 2008 due to
as % of GDP better performance by
Basic Balance as Jan-Oct 2009 0.7 0.3 revenue in 2009.
% of GDP
Primary Bas. Bal, Jan-Oct 2009 3.2 2.9
as % of GDP
Domestic debt Oct 2009 24 26.6 Likely to decline in 2009.
as % of GDP
Yield on 91-days Oct 2009 10.8 10.3 Yields may come down
TBs (%) as CPI inflation has
Yield on 182- Oct 2009 12.1 11.4 started decelerating.
days TBs (%)
Yield on 364- Oct 2009 14.2 13.6
days TBs (%)
GR of Money Sep 2009 20.7 11.1 Money growth rate is
supply (M2) (%) likely to remain high.
Banks’ assets End-Sep 2009 13.7 11.3 Likely to increase
(Billion Dalasi)
CBG policy rate Nov 2009 16.0 16% Kept unchanged by the
(%) MPC since Oct 2008
Overall BOP Jan-June 2009 (-) 348.44 (-) 376.5 BOP is likely to improve
Balance (Mln D) in the second half.
Current A/C Jan-June 2009 163.48 (-) 276.1
Balance (Mln D)
Capital-Fin. A/C Jan-June 2009 (-) 511.92 (-) 100.4
Balance (Mln D)
Rate of change- End-Sep 2009 (-) 7.9 1.6 Dalasi is expected to
Overall Nominal depreciate against major
Effective Exch. currencies in 2009.
Rate (%)
8
1. Global Economic Outlook

1.1 Global recession is ending but recovery is weak, slow and painful
It is well known that the global economy is presently passing through a critical conjecture. It was
adversely affected by three worst crises in fuel, food and financial sectors (called F-3 Crisis) in a
single year in 2008 - the first massive F-3 crisis in the last 70 years since the great depression in
1930s. Both the advanced and developing countries have adopted various monetary and fiscal
stimulus packages (such as cuts in central bank policy interest rates, continued provision of bank
liquidity, credit easing, provision of public guarantees, bail outs and bank recapitalization etc.) to
boost both investment and consumption, output and employment. In their latest World Economic
Outlook (WEO)2 of October 2009, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concludes that although
the global economy has started to pull out of the unprecedented recession, recovery is expected to
be weak and slow, and jobless for some time, as financial systems remain impaired, support from
public policies will gradually have to be withdrawn, and households that suffered asset price busts
will continue to rebuild savings.
As per the IMF projections made in the WEO October 2009, global growth is expected to reach
about 3 percent in 2010, following a contraction in activity of about 1 percent in 2009 (Table-1.1).
During 2010–14, global growth is expected to be just above 4 percent, appreciably less than the 5
percent growth rates in the years just ahead of the crisis. Achieving this turnaround will depend on
stepping up efforts by the governments of both developed and developing countries to heal the
financial sector, while continuing to support demand with monetary and fiscal easing.
In recent years African economies in general experienced an economic boom contributed by two
favorable factors: namely (a) rising exports driven by high commodity prices, and (b) increasing
inflows of remittances and foreign investment. The ongoing financial crisis and economic slowdown
in the developed countries have led to reversal of these positive factors and imposed serious
adverse impact on the African economies.
Prospects of Sub-Saharan Africa
Growth projections in Sub-Saharan Africa have been revised downward to 1.3 percent in 2009
while growth projection for 2010 remains unchanged at 4.1 percent (see Box 1.1 and Figure 1.1).
Real GDP growth in Africa as a whole is projected to decline from an average of 6 percent in 2004–
08 to 1¾ percent in 2009, before accelerating to 4 percent in 2010. This growth performance, while
disappointing in light of the experience of the mid-2000s, is still encouraging given the severity of
the external shocks. An important factor behind this outcome has been that many governments in
the region have been able to use fiscal balances as shock absorbers, sustaining domestic demand
and helping contain employment losses.
Table-1.1 IMF WEO (Oct 2009) Projections (Annual Growth Rate in Percentage)
2
World Economic Outlook- Sustaining the Recovery, October 2009, IMF Washington D.C.
9
Source: World Economic Outlook- Sustaining the recovery, October 2009,

International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C.
10
Box 1.1
IMF Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa

Published on October 3, 2009 Expresses Cautious Optimism
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the Regional Economic Outlook:
Sub-Saharan Africa on October 3, 2009. Ms. Antoinette Monsio Sayeh, Director of
the IMF's African Department summarized the report's main findings as follows:
“The global economic crisis has hit sub-Saharan Africa hard, reducing economic
growth to just 1 percent in 2009 after a period of sustained high economic growth.
Oil exporters and middle income countries in the region have been particularly
badly affected, and most low-income countries somewhat less so. In all SSA
countries, however, the crisis will likely slow, if not reverse, progress on poverty
reduction. Unemployment and under-employment, already endemic, have likely
risen across the region. But playing-off the global economic recovery, we expect
growth in sub-Saharan Africa to rise to 4 percent in 2010 and 5 percent in 2011.
“In many countries the prudent macroeconomic policies pursued in recent years
have provided some policy space to counter the effects of the slowdown.
Accordingly, most countries have been able to maintain or even raise public
spending, allowing fiscal deficits to widen temporarily. Where possible, monetary
policy has also played a supportive role.
“There are significant downside risks, however. Therefore, wherever possible, IMF
staff recommends that fiscal and monetary policies remain supportive until the
economic recovery is well-established. As the recovery gains strength, the
emphasis of fiscal policy will need to shift from stabilization to medium-term
considerations, including debt sustainability. In countries with binding financing
constraints, the room for fiscal policy is more limited and the primary focus will
need to remain on reducing macroeconomic imbalances. Financial sectors have
been for the most part resilient, but prudential supervision will need to remain
vigilant in the face of the impact of the economic slowdown on the quality of banks’
portfolios.
“Scaled-up financial support from the IMF has buttressed countries’ policy response.
The doubling of lending limits and more flexible policies have facilitated a rapid
response to countries’ needs, and new IMF commitments to sub-Saharan Africa
have reached over US$3 billion so far this year, compared to some US$1.1 billion
for the whole of 2008 and only US$0.1 billion in 2007. Looking ahead, it will be
critical that other development partners support this effort and those of other
international financial institutions.”
The full text of the October 2009 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan
Africa can be found on the IMF's website, www.imf.org.
11
Figure 1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa: Projected GDP Growth, 2008–11
Source: IMF, African Department database.

Note: The country borders or names in this map do not necessarily reflect the IMF’s official
position.
12
Box 1.2 IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis for African Economies
The objective of the IMF-World Bank debt sustainability framework, which was introduced in
2005, is to support low-income countries in their efforts to achieve their development goals
without creating future debt problems (see The Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income
Countries, Occasional Paper 266, IMF (2008). A debt sustainability analysis using the DSF looks at
five debt burden indicators to evaluate the risk of external debt distress: the ratios of (i)
present value (PV) of debt-to-GDP; (ii) PV of debt-to-exports; (iii) PV of debt-to-revenues;
(iv) debt service-to-revenues; and (v) debt service-to-exports. The risk of debt distress is
derived by reviewing the evolution of debt burden indicators compared to their indicative
policy-dependent debt-burden thresholds using a baseline scenario, alternative scenarios, and
stress tests. The thresholds depend on the quality of a country’s policies and institutions as
measured by the three-year average of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional
Assessment (CPIA) index.
13
1.2 World Commodity Prices

Inflation pressures to remain low.
The global recession has caused a large drop in inflation and rising concern about mild
deflation. However, the decline in inflation pressures has been limited among some emerging
economies. Inflation in advanced economies is projected to be close to zero in 2009 and to
accelerate very modestly to about 1 percent in 2010, largely reflecting rising commodity prices.
Prices for many manufactured goods will probably continue to decline for some time.
Fortunately, inflation expectations have generally remained well anchored, providing some
protection against sustained large price declines. In emerging economies, inflation is forecast to
hover around 5 percent in 2009–2010, down from more than 9 percent in 2008. Only China, a
few of the ASEAN-5 and most emerging European economies are projected to see inflation fall
appreciably below 5 percent. Low potential growth and inflation will slow the process of
deleveraging, adding to contractionary forces.
Commodity Prices
Commodity prices have rebounded ahead of the recovery (Table 1.2). The recent rally in
commodity prices was strong and broad-based, reflecting improved market sentiment, U.S.
dollar depreciation, and commodity-specific supply-demand conditions. Oil prices have
responded strongly to improved demand prospects but also to Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) members’ strict observance of lower production quotas. Forward
markets project oil prices at $74.50 for 2010, not much above current levels, with high excess
capacity expected to buffer growing demand.
14
Table-1.2 Trends of World Commodity Prices

Quarterly averages Monthly averages
Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Aug Sep Oct
Commodity Unit 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
Energy
Crude oil, Brent $/bbl 115.60 55.89 44.98 59.13 68.37 72.50 67.69 73.19
Crude oil, Dubai $/bbl 113.47 53.67 44.56 58.93 68.07 71.32 67.91 73.28
Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu 14.62 15.75 11.94 8.18 6.91 6.92 7.13 7.60
Natural gas, US $/mmbtu 9.03 6.40 4.57 3.70 3.17 3.15 2.96 4.02
Beverages and Food
Cocoa ¢/kg 282.6 224.1 259.7 258.7 295.5 295.7 313.3 336.0
Coffee, Arabica ¢/kg 321.2 267.8 283.9 320.2 322.7 330.2 327.5 340.8
Tea, Colombo ¢/kg 303.2 208.8 261.7 299.1 356.1 345.8 376.4 353.4
auctions
Tea, Kolkata auctions ¢/kg 260.9 220.2 177.4 271.3 273.0 270.5 274.2 293.1
Tea, Mombasa auct. ¢/kg 252.8 190.8 214.9 228.0 281.7 281.4 296.5 261.3
Coconut oil $/mt 1,246 772 677 779 711 747 701 704
Copra $/mt 817 520 447 513 469 492 466 469
Groundnut oil $/mt 2,417 1,773 1,283 1,166 1,133 1,131 1,120 1,144
Palm oil $/mt 928 512 577 743 679 723 674 679
Soybean oil $/mt 1,353 830 755 863 856 886 846 901
Soybeans $/mt 566 377 394 461 454 470 430 481
Barley $/mt 216.6 129.5 116.3 129.5 122.0 122.2 103.5 130.7
Maize $/mt 244.7 168.4 166.9 176.0 151.3 152.0 150.4 167.3
Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 703.0 564.4 586.3 552.4 539.0 526.3 518.8 490.3
Rice, Thailand, 25% $/mt 669.5 449.9 469.4 458.7 441.4 432.8 428.0 410.3
Wheat, Canada $/mt 390.2 322.1 321.9 325.6 271.2 266.0 259.3 274.1
Bananas EU $/mt 1,123 944 1,142 1,288 1,118 1,076 1,130 1,080
Fishmeal $/mt 1,198 1,023 1,013 1,097 1,276 1,272 1,348 1,443
Meat, beef ¢/kg 372.4 268.0 245.2 262.8 273.2 273.4 272.7 264.8
Meat, chicken ¢/kg 177.1 174.7 173.5 174.1 173.9 173.9 170.1 166.1
Meat, sheep ¢/kg 477.3 410.0 378.5 428.7 453.3 456.0 450.1 445.8
Oranges $/mt 1,163 842 799 870 861 836 1,031 1,163
Shrimp, Mexico ¢/kg 1,048 1,014 976 970 970 970 970 970
Sugar EU ¢/kg 74.70 51.97 51.44 53.76 55.43 56.34 54.30 55.25
Raw Materials
Logs, Cameroon $/cum 548.5 473.8 426.8 394.8 414.9 413.8 422.3 444.5
Plywood ¢/sheet 648.6 645.5 572.8 565.8 561.5 562.0 560.7 559.3
Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum 974.5 770.8 689.2 721.2 779.0 785.6 775.5 790.0
Cotton Memphis ( * ) ¢/kg 170.0 129.4 122.4 137.5 148.8 152.5 153.9 151.4
Rubber RSS1, US ¢/kg 329.1 202.8 165.8 187.0 221.0 223.1 248.7 264.8
Fertilizers
DAP $/mt 1,153.7 663.3 362.2 303.6 309.6 318.6 316.8 300.1
Phosphate rock $/mt 409.2 371.3 193.3 113.3 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0
Potassium chloride $/mt 635.0 766.7 865.2 726.7 505.6 432.5 428.9 438.9
Urea $/mt 745.4 292.2 267.3 241.1 241.6 247.1 233.9 239.0
Metals and Minerals
Aluminum $/mt 2,787 1,821 1,360 1,485 1,812 1,934 1,834 1,879
Copper $/mt 7,680 3,905 3,428 4,663 5,859 6,165 6,196 6,288
Gold $/toz 870 795 909 922 960 949 997 1,043
Iron ore ¢/dmtu 140.6 140.6 101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0
Lead ¢/kg 191.2 124.5 115.7 149.9 192.8 190.0 220.5 224.1
Nickel $/mt 18,961 10,843 10,471 12,920 17,700 19,642 17,473 18,525
Silver ¢/toz 1,495 1,020 1,265 1,376 1,477 1,443 1,648 1,726
Steel cr coilsheet $/mt 1,100 1,100 1,033 700 700 700 700 700
Steel hr coilsheet $/mt 1,000 1,000 933 600 600 600 600 600
Steel rebar $/mt 934 630 473 450 500 500 500 580
Steel wire rod $/mt 1,135 1,200 1,200 1,007 857 850 850 850
Tin ¢/kg 2,051 1,310 1,103 1,351 1,459 1,487 1,487 1,501
Zinc ¢/kg 177.0 118.5 117.2 147.3 176.1 182.2 188.4 207.2
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet November 2009
15
2. Current State of the Gambian Economy

2.1 Overall and Sectoral GDP Growth Rates
• The sharp decline in global economic activity had adverse impact on the Gambian
economy in 2008 leading to decline of exports and remittances and decline of
manufacturing production and wholesale and retail trade.
• However, thanks to bumper crops contributed by favorable monsoon at home and high
international prices of food grains, and very good performance by electricity, telecom
and financial sectors, the real GDP growth at constant 2004 market prices improved
from 6% in 2007 to 6.3% in 2008 (Table-2.1 and Figure-2.1).
• As per the Preliminary Estimates of the GBOS, real GDP growth in 2009 at constant
market prices is expected to be 5% supported by a growth of 5.5% in agricultural
production, 3.5% by industrial production and 5.7% in services production.
• Share of agriculture increased from 21.6% in 2007 to 25.3% in 2009, while share of
industry declined from 14.7% to 13.2% and that of services declined from 63.7% to
61.5% during the same period. Increase of agricultural share was contributed by
increase in share of crops, while decline of services share was mainly due to decline of
share of wholesale and retail trade, and transport and communications.
GDP Composition(%) in 2009

Others
Business 7%
11%
Agriculture
Transport 26%
12% Mining
2% Manufacturing
Hotels 6%
4% Trade
26% Utilities
2% Construction
4%
Figure-2.1: Trends of sectoral growth rates during 2000-2009 (in percentage)

16
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
GDPMP Agriculture Industry Services
Table-2.1: Sectoral Growth Rates and Shares in GDP in the Gambia in 2005-2009 (in %)
Sectoral GDP Growth Rates Sectoral Shares in GDP
(in percentage) (in percentage)
Items 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2006 2007 2008 2009
Actual Actual Actual Estd. IMF-Proj Actual Actual Actual Estd.
GDP at 2004 basic price 3.1 6.0 6.3 5.0 3.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100
Agriculture and allied -14.3 -1.9 26.6 5.5 4.0 23.1 21.6 25.3 25.3
-- Crops -26.3 -15.2 55.2 5.5 4.0 11.8 9.5 13.6 13.7
-- Livestock 2.4 11.9 4.3 4.5 4.0 8.8 9.4 9.0 9.0
-- Forestry 3.0 -4.0 1.0 0.7 3.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
-- Fishing 7.8 18.0 3.5 11.3 3.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1
Industry 4.5 2.5 -1.2 3.5 2.6 15.1 14.7 13.4 13.2
-- Mining and quarrying 1.2 -14.1 8.8 8.8 2.0 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.0
-- Manufacturing 4.1 3.9 -8.3 0.4 4.0 7.0 7.0 5.9 5.6
-- Electricity, gas, water 8.7 59.1 1.7 10.0 5.0 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.6
-- Construction 6.0 -4.3 5.0 3.0 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.0
Services 10.0 8.3 4.2 5.7 2.4 61.8 63.7 61.3 61.5
-- Wholesale/retail trade 16.1 9.7 -2.3 1.0 2.7 28.2 29.5 26.6 25.5
-- Hotels/ restaurants 15.7 14.3 2.9 3.0 -10.0 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.6
-- Transport / telecom 2.7 7.0 -8.0 8.0 3.5 12.8 13.0 11.0 11.3
-- Financial 5.7 -0.9 28.2 3.0 1.0 7.5 7.0 8.3 8.2
-- Real est., business -3.9 1.4 0.0 2.5 1.0 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.0
-- Public administration 11.1 12.9 42.1 2.0 5.0 2.6 2.8 3.7 3.6
-- Other service 11.0 17.8 27.0 37.1 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.9 6.3
Source: Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS) for the years 2006-2009 and IMF projections for 2009 by
the IMF Mission to the Gambia in May 2009.
17
2.2 Consumer Price Index and Inflation
• As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual point-to-point CPI inflation
decelerated significantly from 6.5% in October 2008 to 2.3% in October 2009. On the
contrary, the 12-month average inflation rate accelerated from 4.3% in October 2008 to
5.3% in October 2009.
• Food and drinks (with weights of 55.2% in overall CPI) recorded an annual point-to-point
inflation rate of 2.6% in October 2009, down from 8.6% a year ago, and contributed
67.2% to overall inflation in October 2009.
• Non-food items (with weights of 44.8% in overall CPI) recorded annual inflation rate of
1.9% in Oct 2009, down from 3.9% a year ago and contributed 32.8% to overall inflation.
• Among other groups in October 2009, housing and utilities recorded an annual inflation
of 2.1%, restaurants and hotels 1.8% and miscellaneous goods and services 5%.
Table-2.2 CPI Inflation Rates in October 2009 (in percentage)

Items Weights
Oct-2008 Oct-2009 Inflation Wi (CPIi1 – Contributio
Wi (%) Index Index (%) CPIi0) n3 (%)
Overall 100.0119.29 121.99 2.3 261.1 100.0
Food 55.2124.58 127.76 2.6 175.6 67.2
Tobacco 0.7 104.69 106.48 1.7 1.2 0.5
Clothing 11.3110.68 111.82 1.0 12.8 4.9
Utilities 3.4 120.10 122.64 2.1 8.6 3.3
Furnishing 5.2 113.53 115.98 2.2 12.8 4.9
Health 1.0 101.11 101.8 0.7 0.7 0.3
Transport 4.4 119.17 119.97 0.7 3.5 1.4
Telecom 3.0 101.92 102.02 0.1 0.3 0.1
Recreation 8.0 104.15 105.07 0.9 7.4 2.8
Education 1.5 101.90 102.99 1.1 1.6 0.6
Hotels 0.4 115.10 117.2 1.8 0.8 0.3
Misc. 5.9 121.13 127.15 5.0 35.7 13.7
Non-food 44.8112.88 114.92 1.9 91.4 32.8
Source of basic data: Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS).
3
Contribution of an item to overall inflation is estimated by the following formula:
Contribution of Item (i) = Wi (CPIi1 – CPIi0) / ∑ Wi (CPIi1 – CPIi0) expressed as a percentage.
where CPIi1 = Consumer Price Index for Item (i) in the current period
CPIi0 = Consumer Price Index for Item (i) in the previous period
Wi = Weights for Item (i) and
W = Total weights = Σ Wi
For example, contribution of food is estimated as 100 X 175.6 / 261.1 = 67.2%.
18
19
2.3 Projection of CPI inflation during November-December 2009
We have made three alternative projections of inflation rates for the remainder months of the
year, on the basis of the following assumptions:
(1) Alternative-1: It is assumed that the CPI variation for a month over the previous month
in 2009 will be the average CPI variation for the month over the previous month in last
two years (2008 and 2007). Thus, Nov 2009 CPI is estimated by the following formula:
Projected CPI for Nov 2009 = Oct 2009 CPI + (Nov 2008 CPI + Nov 2007 CPI – Oct 2008 CPI –
Oct 2007 CPI)/ 2. For the subsequent months, CPI is projected by the similar formula.
(2) Alternative-2: It is assumed that the variation of CPI for a month over the previous
month in 2009 will be the same as that for the respective month over the previous month
in 2008. For example, CPI for Nov 2009 is estimated by the following formula:
Projected CPI for Nov 2009 = Actual CPI for Oct 2009 + (Nov 2008 CPI – Oct 2008 CPI). For
the subsequent months, CPI is projected by the similar formula.
(3) Alternative-3: Average of inflation rates under Alternatives 1 and 2.
Results are presented in Table 2.3 which indicates that inflation is expected to remain stable
and low around 2.2% during the remaining months of the year 2009 and the year-end 12-
month average inflation rate is expected to be 4.5%, the same as in last year.
Table-2.3: Projections of CPI inflation during October-December 2009 (in percentage)

2007 2008 2009- 2009- 2007 2008 2009- 2009- 2009
Index Index Alt1 Alt2 Inf. rate Inf. rate Alt1 Alt2 Alt3
Jan 106.86 112.31 120.1 120.1 2.0 5.1 7.0 7.0 7.0
3 3
Feb 107.01 112.34 120.2 120.2 2.1 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
5 5
Mar 109.36 112.73 120.3 120.3 4.2 3.1 6.7 6.7 6.7
0 0
Apr 111.64 113.21 120.36 120.36 6.3 1.4 6.3 6.3 6.3
May 112.0 113.8 120.51 120.51 6.6 1.6 5.9 5.9 5.9
5 3
Jun 111.9 114.4 120.61 120.61 6.4 2.2 5.4 5.4 5.4
8 8
July 111.95 116.21 120.84 120.84 6.3 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0
Aug 112.09 117.65 121.15 121.15 6.4 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Sep 111.86 118.96 121.75 121.75 6.0 6.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
Oct 111.95 119.29 121.99 121.99 6.0 6.6 2.3 2.3 2.3
Nov 112.13 119.54 122.21 122.24 6.0 6.6 2.2 2.3 2.2
Dec 112.26 119.93 122.47 122.63 6.0 6.8 2.1 2.3 2.2
Q1 107.7 112.5 120.2 120.2 2.8 4.4 6.9 6.9 6.9
Q2 111.9 113.8 120.5 120.5 6.4 1.7 5.8 5.8 5.8
Q3 112.0 117.6 121.2 121.2 6.2 5.0 3.1 3.1 3.1
Q4 112.1 119.6 122.2 122.3 6.0 6.7 2.2 2.3 2.2
20
Average 5.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
21
2.4 Government Fiscal Performance in Jan-Oct 2009
• Columns (4), (5) and (6) of Table-2.4.1 present major item-wise revenue realization and
expenditure of the government in the first ten months (i.e. Jan-Oct) of 2007, 2008 and 2009
respectively. Columns (7) and (8) indicate annual percentage changes of major items of
revenues and expenditure in Jan-Oct 2008 and Jan-Oct 2009 respectively over those in the
corresponding period of the previous year.
• It is observed from the table that the government’s fiscal performance was better in Jan-
Oct 2009 than Jan-Oct 2008. In Jan-Oct 2008 total domestic revenues declined by 3.3%, as
tax revenues and non-tax revenues declined by 0.2% and 25.7% respectively over Jan-Oct
2007. On contrast, Jan-Oct 2009 witnessed an increase in total domestic revenue by 14.3%
aided by 14.5% increase in taxes and 12.5% increase in non-tax revenues.
• During Jan-Oct 2009, total expenditures and net lending has increased by 23.8% over
Jan-Oct 2008 due to 17.5% increase in current expenditure and 40.9% increase of capital
expenditure and net lending over Jan-Oct 2008.
• Overall, there is a fiscal deficit of D556 million in Jan-Oct 2009, higher than fiscal deficit
of D377 million in Jan-Oct 2007, but basic balance and basic primary balance improved to
D181 million and D806 million respectively in Jan-Oct 2009 from D65 million and D660
million respectively in Jan-Oct 2008.
Table-2.4.1 Govt Financial Performance in Jan-Oct 2009 compared with Jan-Oct 2008
2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 % change % change
Items Actual Budget Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct In Jan- In Jan-
Mln Dal. Estimate Actual Actual Actual Oct 2008 Oct 2009
Mln. Dal. Mln Dal. Mln Dal. Mln Dal. over Jan- over Jan-
Oct 2007 Oct 2008
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Revenue and grants 3645 4582 3178.9 3055.1 3694.0 -3.9 20.9
Domestic Revenue 3479 3771 3013.5 2912.9 3330.3 -3.3 14.3
Tax Revenue 3161 3391 2638.1 2633.8 3016.3 -0.2 14.5
Nontax Revenue 318 380 375.4 279.1 314.1 -25.7 12.5
Grants 166 811 165.4 142.3 363.6 -14.0 155.6
Exp & Net Lending 4135 5363 2987.8 3432.5 4250.0 14.9 23.8
Current Expenditure 3011 3838 2106.4 2509.0 2948.5 19.1 17.5
Personnel Emoluments 906 1035 538.1 768.7 933.3 42.9 21.4
Other Charges 1398 1958 880.8 1145.9 1390.7 30.1 21.4
Interest 708 845 687.5 594.3 624.4 -13.6 5.1
External 154 147 214.1 123.5 131.1 -42.3 6.2
Domestic 555 698 473.3 470.8 493.3 -0.5 4.8
Cap Exp & Net Lending 1123 1525 881.4 923.6 1301.6 4.8 40.9
Capital Expenditure 1017 1468 805.7 846.0 1228.9 5.0 45.3
Net Lending 107 57 75.7 77.6 72.7 2.5 -6.3
Overall Bal Inc. grants -490 -781 191.1 -377.4 -556.1 -297.5 47.4
Basic balance -156 -268 893.2 65.2 181.2 -92.7 177.9
Basic Primary Bal 553 577 1580.7 659.5 805.6 -58.3 22.2
Nominal GDP (GBOS) 22590 25023 20413 22590 25023 10.7 10.8
Notes: (1) Overall balance= (Revenue and grants) minus (expenditure and net lending).
(2) Basic balance= Domestic revenue minus (expenditure and net lending) plus externally
financed capital expenditure; (3) Basic primary balance= Basic balance plus interest
payments
22
• Column (2) of Table-2.4.2 indicates the item-wise actual fiscal performance in 2008 as
percentage of GDP and the column (3) indicates the item-wise budget estimates in 2009 as
percentage of GDP. It is observed from these columns that 2009 budget estimates assume
better performance of grants and expenditure as percentages of GDP. Overall fiscal deficit
for 2009 is budgeted at 3.1% of GDP compared to 2.2% of GDP recorded in 2008.
• Columns (4), (5) and (6) of Table-2.4.2 present the major item-wise performance of
revenues and expenditure in Jan-Oct of 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively, as percentages
of the corresponding nominal GDP (as estimated by GBOS) for the full year. It is observed
from the table that, in terms of the percentages of GDP, the total revenues and expenditures
have performed better in Jan-Oct 2009 than those in Jan-Oct 2008.
• The revenue and expenditure ratios to GDP are also observed to be on track in Jan-Oct
2009 (column-6) as compared with the 2009 budget estimates (column-3).
Table-2.4.2 Govt Financial Performance in Jan-Oct 2009 compared with Jan-Oct 2008
2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009
Actual Budget Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct Jan-Oct
Items as % of as % of as % of as % of as % of as % of as % of
GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP Outturn Budget
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Revenue and grants 16.1 18.3 15.6 13.5 14.8 83.8 80.6
Domestic Revenue 15.4 15.1 14.8 12.9 13.3 83.7 88.3
Tax Revenue 14.0 13.5 12.9 11.7 12.1 83.3 89.0
Nontax Revenue 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.3 87.8 82.5
Grants 0.7 3.2 0.8 0.6 1.5 85.9 44.8
Exp & Net Lending 18.3 21.4 14.6 15.2 17.0 83.0 79.2
Current Expenditure 13.3 15.3 10.3 11.1 11.8 83.3 76.8
Personnel Emoluments 4.0 4.1 2.6 3.4 3.7 84.9 90.2
Other Charges 6.2 7.8 4.3 5.1 5.6 82.0 71.0
Interest 3.1 3.4 3.4 2.6 2.5 83.9 73.9
External 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.5 80.5 89.0
Domestic 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 84.8 70.7
Cap Exp & Net Lending 5.0 6.1 4.3 4.1 5.2 82.2 85.4
Capital Expenditure 4.5 5.9 3.9 3.7 4.9 83.2 83.7
Net Lending 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 72.6 128.3
Overall Bal -2.2 -3.1 0.9 -1.7 -2.2 77.0 71.2
Inc.grants4
Basic balance5 -0.7 -1.1 4.4 0.3 0.7 -41.9 -67.7
Basic Prim. Balance6 2.4 2.3 7.7 2.9 3.2 119.3 139.5
Source: Economic Planning and Management Unit (EMPU), DODFEA.
4
(1) Overall balance= (Revenue and grants) minus (expenditure and net lending).
5
(2) Basic balance= Domestic revenue minus (expenditure and net lending) plus externally
financed capital expenditure;
6
(3) Basic primary balance= Basic balance plus interest payments
23
2.5 Projection of Fiscal Outturn for the Year 2009
Column (2) of the Table-2.5.3 below presents detailed item-wise revenues and expenditure in
Jan-Oct 2009. The ratios of actual realization for any item in Jan-Oct to the final outturn for the
item during the complete year for the last five years viz. 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2009 are
presented in columns (3) to (7) respectively. Item-wise average ratios for these five years are
presented in column (8) of the Table-2.5.3. Taking these ratios as norms to take care of monthly
seasonality over the year, expected revenue and expenditure outcomes for the full year 2009
are estimated by the following formula and are presented in column (9).
Expected outturn for an item in 2009 = 100 X (actual realization in Jan-Oct 2009) / average
realization ratio (in percentage) in Jan-Oct in the last five years (2004-2008)
Comparison of the expected outcome given in Column (9) with the budget estimates given in
Column (10) leads to the following conclusions:
(a) Total domestic revenue and tax revenue targets as given in the Appropriation Budget for
2009 are expected to be realized by actual collections in 2009.
(b) It is understood that Table 2.5.3 does not fully capture the inflows of grants, which have
already been over realized as compared to budget estimates. This underestimation of
grants, as given in Table 2.5.3, will not affect the fiscal balance or basic balance as the
grants balance each other on revenue and expenditure sides.
(c) There is likely to be marginal shortfall in non-tax revenues.
(d) Both current and capital expenditure will be within budgeted targets.
(e) Overall, it is expected to have a fiscal deficit of D839 million (amounting to 3.4% of
nominal GDP) compared to budget estimate of fiscal deficit at D780.7 million (amounting
to 3.1 percent of GDP). However, basic primary balance is likely to be 3% of GDP,
higher than the budget estimate at 2.3% of GDP.
2.5.3 Government Fiscal Performance in Jan-Oct 2009 and Expected Outturn for 2009
Items 2009- Ratio of Jan-Oct performance in Ave. 2009 2009
Jan- Annual Outturn (in Percentage) ratio Proj. Budget
Oct 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2004- Out- Esti-
mate
Actual Ja-Oc Ja-Oc Ja-Oc Ja-Oc Ja-Oc 2009 turn7
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
1.Rev & grants (2+5) 3694.0 84.0 82.2 83.7 86.8 82.4 4358.7 4582.2
2.Dom. Revenue (3+4) 3330.3 83.0 81.8 83.3 86.9 84.1 3959.0 3771.1
3.Tax Rev (3.1+3.2) 3016.3 83.6 83.3 84.2 86.4 83.7 3589.2 3390.6
3.1 Direct Tax (a to e) 878.8 87.4 83.2 88.3 91.2 88.2 994.9
(a) Personal 359.2 85.8 87.3 85.9 85.9 85.3 86.0 417.5
(b) Corporate 441.6 87.9 79.9 89.2 94.5 97.0 89.7 492.4
(c) Capital Gains 22.5 87.9 87.9 85.3 89.8 54.7 81.1 27.7
(d) Payroll 37.3 96.2 96.5 96.4 98.1 94.3 96.3 38.7
(e) Other 18.3 - 97.9 97.5 99.4 99.0 98.5 18.6
2.5.3 Government Fiscal Performance in Jan-Oct 2009 and Expected Outturn for 2009
Items 2009 Ratio of Jan-Oct performance in Ave. 2009 2009
Jan- Annual Outturn (in Percentage) ratio Proj. Budget
Oct 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2004- Out- Esti-
mate
Actual Ja-Oc Ja-Oc Ja-Oc Ja-Oc Ja-Oc 2009 turn8
7
Expected outturn for an item in 2009 = 100 X (actual realization in Jan-June 2009) / average realization ratio (in
percentage) during the last five years (2004-2008)
24
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
3.2 Indirect Tax 2137.4 82.2 83.3 82.4 84.5 81.3 2594.4
3.2.1 Dom Tax on G&S 488.0 80.8 85.1 81.5 84.1 84.2 590.6
(a) Stamp Duties 13.7 90.6 88.3 93.3 93.7 86.6 90.5 15.2
(b) Excise Duties 122.8 78.0 72.7 79.6 81.5 82.1 78.8 155.8
(c) Dom Sales Tax 351.6 80.7 87.0 81.5 84.8 84.8 83.8 419.7
3.2.2 Tax on Ext Trade 1649.4 82.5 82.8 82.7 84.6 79.9 2003.7
(a) Duty (i+ii) 977.3 83.7 82.6 83.7 84.7 77.3 1188.7
(i) Oil 550.5 87.4 79.3 85.0 89.0 69.1 81.9 671.8
(ii) Non-oil 426.8 82.5 83.8 82.9 82.3 81.4 82.6 516.9
(b) Sale tax on imp (i+ii) 672.1 81.0 83.0 81.6 84.6 82.6 815.1
(i) Oil 115.3 81.9 83.9 83.1 82.0 86.3 83.4 138.2
(ii) Non-oil 556.8 80.8 82.8 81.2 85.2 81.3 82.3 676.9
4. Nontax Rev (a to d) 314.1 77.7 71.9 73.2 90.3 87.8 80.2 369.7 380.5
(a) Govt Charges 128.3 81.5 86.9 78.3 95.7 95.9 87.7 146.4
(b) NTR from CRD 4.5 - 92.3 88.3 93.0 92.3 91.5 4.9
(c) NTR from CED 86.7 - 83.3 - 83.0 84.2 83.5 103.8
(d) Others 94.6 75.0 80.0 80.0 87.5 90.0 82.5 114.7
5. Grants 363.6 88.5 87.2 91.6 85.1 58.2 82.1 399.7 811.1
6. Exp & Net Lend (7+8) 4250.0 82.6 85.9 84.6 82.2 81.4 5198.0 5362.9
7. Cur. .Exp (7.1 to 7.3) 2948.5 76.0 81.4 81.0 81.4 81.1 3705.2 3838.0
7.1 Pers. Emoluments 933.3 80.7 80.9 76.5 79.1 78.2 79.1 1180.3 1035.2
7.2 Other Charges 1390.7 78.0 79.5 79.7 80.7 82.0 80.0 1738.8 1957.5
7.3 Interest (a+b) 624.4 71.9 82.9 85.5 84.3 83.3 786.1 845.3
(a) External 131.1 89.6 89.3 86.7 92.7 80.4 87.7 165.0 147.3
(b) Domestic 493.3 65.7 81.1 85.2 81.0 84.1 79.4 621.1 698
8. Cap Exp & Net Lend. 1301.6 91.3 93.2 90.3 84.1 82.2 1492.8 1524.9
8.1 Capital Exp. (a+b) 1228.9 90.6 92.4 89.9 82.8 83.2 1412.6 1468.2
(a) Ext. Financed (i+ii) 737.3 93.4 92.6 91.2 90.0 87.6 810.4
(i) Loans 373.6 95.3 93.8 91.2 91.6 88.4 91.0 410.7
(ii) Grants 363.6 89.2 86.1 91.6 85.1 85.9 91.0 399.7
(b) GLF Capital 491.6 80.0 89.3 80.0 80.0 78.9 81.6 602.1
8.2 Net lending 72.7 90.0 90.0 100.0 100.0 72.7 90.5 80.3 56.7
9. Overall fis. bal (1-6) -556.1 -839.3 -780.7
10. Basic balance 181.2 -28.9 -267.7
11. Basic Primary Bal. 805.6 757.2 577.6
Memorandum Items: As percentage of IMF Program Nominal GDP (equal to D19904 million)
12. Fiscal bal (1-6) -2.2 -3.4 -3.1
13. Basic balance 0.7 -0.1 -1.1
14. Basic Primary 3.2 3.0 2.3
Balance
8
Expected outturn for an item in 2009 = 100 X (actual realization in Jan-Sep 2009) / average realization ratio in Jan-
Sep (in percentage) during the last five years (2004-2008)
25
2.6 Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Outstanding
• At the end of October 2009, outstanding domestic debt stood at D6 billion (amounting to
24% of GDP), the same as the outstanding domestic debt at D6 billion (amounting to
26.6% of GDP) a year ago.
• The share of Treasury bills increased from 79.2% at the end of October 2008 to
84.7% at the end of October 2009, share of Sukuk Al-Salam declined marginally from
2.1% to 2%, that of Government bonds remained unchanged at 4.2%, while that of NIB
treasury bills declined from 14.5% to 9.1% over the period.
Table-2.6-A Outstanding Domestic Public Debt as on 31 October 2009
Type of debt Million Dalasi % change in Oct Composition

2009 (in percentage)
31 Oct 31 Oct over Oct 2008 31 Oct 31 Oct
2008 2009 2008 2009
Treasury bills 4,761 5,087 6.8 79.2 84.7
Sukuk Al-Salam 127 123 -3.1 2.1 2.0
Government Bonds 250 250 0.0 4.2 4.2
NIB Treasury Notes 873 547 -37.4 14.5 9.1
Total 6,011 6,006 -0.1 100 100
Nominal GDP 22590 25023
(GBOS)
As % of nominal 26.6 24.0
GDP
Domestic Debt Sustainability
As per the analysis made by the CBG, the current level of Gambia’s domestic debt is
unsustainable. Out of three sustainability indicators given in Table-2.6.B, only one indicator viz.
debt to revenue ratio is satisfied. However, debt to GDP ratio may be satisfied during 2009.
Table-2.6-B Primary Benchmarks for Domestic Debt Sustainability Ratios (%)

Item Threshold 2006 2007 2008 2009
Projected
1. Debt service to 28-63 142 124 118 91
revenue ratio
2. Debt to GDP ratio 20-25 33 30 27 30
3. Debt to revenue 92-167 180 158 166 147
ratio
Note: (1) Debt service is the sum of interest payments plus the amortization (i.e. repayment of principal)
including the rollover of treasury Bills. (2) There are no internationally agreed levels of thresholds. The
thresholds used here are those used by the Debt Relief International (DRI) for many HIPC countries.
Source: Central Bank of Gambia
26
2.7 Treasury Bills Yields
• Yields on treasury bills fluctuated widely in recent months. As expected, the higher the
maturity of treasury bills, the higher is the yield. However, despite stability in deposit
rates and significant decline of annual point-to-point CPI inflation rate from 7% in Jan
2009 to 2.3% in Oct 2009, average yields on the 91-day bills increased from 10.5% in
Jan 2009 to 10.8% in Oct 2009, yield on 182-day bills in Oct 2009 at 12.1% was the
same as in Jan 2009, and yield on 364 day bills declined marginally from 14.4% in Jan
2009 to 14.2% in Oct 2009.
• This implies that the margins of yields over inflation rates or over deposit rates are
increasing over time and need to be corrected by adopting appropriate monetary
instruments and policies.
Table-2.7 Average yields on treasury bills (in percentage per annum)

2007 2008 2009
91-D 162-D 364-D 91-D 162-D 364-D 91-D 182-D 364-D
Jan 10.5 12.7 13.6 10.6 11.4 13.6 10.5 12.1 14.4
Feb 12.0 13.4 13.8 10.9 11.9 13.7 11.1 12.8 14.4
Mar 12.6 13.4 13.7 11.0 12.1 13.6 11.4 12.7 14.4
Apr 13.0 13.4 13.8 10.9 11.9 13.3 12.0 13.0 14.6
May 12.8 13.3 13.8 10.2 11.3 13.0 12.5 13.8 15.3
Jun 12.6 13.1 13.9 10.0 11.2 13.3 13.0 13.8 15.6
Jul 12.5 13.2 13.9 9.6 10.6 12.6 11.5 12.0 14.4
Aug 12.6 12.9 13.6 8.8 10.2 12.1 10.2 11.2 13.3
Sep 11.6 12.2 12.9 8.9 11.0 13.1 10.4 11.7 14.3
Oct 10.6 11.7 12.5 10.3 11.4 13.6 10.8 12.1 14.2
Nov 10.5 11.5 12.5 10.1 13.4 13.7
Dec 10.4 11.6 13.6 9.9 12.5 14.0
Trends of Yields of Treasury Bills during 2007-2009
27
2.8. Money Supply
• Broad money supply (M2) recorded an annual growth of 20.7%, compared to 11.1
percent a year ago. While quasi money increased by a faster pace of 27.1 percent,
narrow money increased by 14.2 percent. Reserve money grew by 2.7 percent, higher
than an increase of 0.9 percent recorded a year ago.
• On the supply side, 20.7% growth in broad money supply in Sept 2009 was supported
by 4% growth in currency, 20.1% growth in demand deposits, 17.8% growth in savings
deposits and 40.7% growth in time deposits.
• On the demand side, growth was mainly due to 32.7% growth in net foreign assets,
while net domestic assets increased by only 12.7% over a year ago.
• Domestic credit increased from D5.8 billion in Sept 2008 to D6.9 billion in Sept 2009,
supported by 21.3% growth in government borrowing, 82.9% growth in credits to public
entities and 13.3% growth in credits to the private sector, over a year ago.
Table-2.8 Money Supply and Demand in Sept 2009

Components Sep 2008 Sep Sep 2008 Sep Sep 2009 %
Million 2009 % share 2009 change over Sep
Dalasi Million Dalasi % share 2008
1.Money Supply (M2) (2+3) 8770 10585 100 100 20.7
2.Narrow Money (2.1+2.2) 4360 4979 50 47 14.2
2.1 Currency 1599 1663 18 16 4.0
2.2 Demand deposits 2760 3315 31 31 20.1
3.Quasi money (3.1+3.2) 4410 5606 50 53 27.1
3.1 Savings deposits 2617 3083 30 29 17.8
3.2 Time deposits 1793 2523 20 24 40.7
Demands for money (1+2) 8770 10585 100 100 20.7
1.Net foreign assets (1.1+1.2) 3494 4637 40 44 32.7
1.1 Monetary Authorities 3087 3934 35 37 27.4
1.2 Commercial banks 407 703 5 7 72.8
2.Net Dom. Assets (2.1+2.2) 5277 5949 60 56 12.7
2.1 Domestic credit 5835 6909 67 65 18.4
(a) Credits to government 2132 2587 24 24 21.3
(b) Credits to public entities 482 881 5 8 82.9
(c) Credits to private sector 3038 3442 35 33 13.3
(d) Credits to forex bureau 183 0 2 0 -100.0
2.2 Other items, net -558 -961 -6 -9 72.2
Reserve Money 2572 2844 10.6
28
2.9 Performance by Commercial Banks
• The Gambian banking industry consists of 13 banks with highly skewed distribution of
assets. The industry continues to be dominated by three large banks which accounted
for 64.4% of the total assets at the end of September 2009, although their share has
declined from 67% a year ago.
• The banking industry remains sound. Total industry assets increased by 17% on year-
on-year basis from D11.3 billion at end-Sep 2008 to D13.2 billion at end-Sep 2009.
• The Banking sector continues to function efficiently with sufficient capital and liquidity.
The industry’s risk-weighted capital adequacy ratio stood at 34.84% in March 2009, and
33.22% in Sept 2009 significantly above the statutory requirement of 8%.
• Non-performing loans rose from 7.3% in Sep 2008 to 9.5% in Dec 2008, but declined to
7% in Sept 2009 compared to 9.95 percent a year ago, and were adequately provisioned
in compliance with the statutory norms and requirements.
• However, commercial banks’ Return on Assets (ROA) declined from 2.10% in March
2008 to 0.9% in Sep 2008. ROA declined further to 0.49% at the end of Sep 2009.
• In September 2009, distribution and trade sector accounted for 22 percent of total loans
given by the commercial banks, followed by building accounting for 12 percent, transport
8 percent, tourism 7 percent, manufacturing 5 percent, and agriculture 3 percent.
However, the notable sectoral increases of bank loans in September 2009 were for
manufacturing, construction, tourism and fishing, while loans to agriculture recorded
decline over last year’s lending.
• As regards non-performing loans as a percentage of bank loans given to the sector, in

September 2009 the fishing sector accounted for the highest non-performing loans (42%
of total sector loans), followed by building (12.3%), distribution and trade (11.1%),
financial sector (10.2%) and agriculture 4.3%. The manufacturing sector was the best
performer as it had the least defaults.
Table-2.9 Banks’ total loans and non-performing loans (NPL) by sectors in Sept 2009
Sectors Total Loans Total loans Sep Sep Sep 2009 NPL NPL
Sep 2008 Sep 2009 2008 2009 % change Ml. D. as %
Million Dalasi Million Dalasi % share % share over Sep of
2008 loans
to the
sector
1. Agriculture 148 136 5 3 -8.4 5.9 4.3
2. Fishing 17 25 1 1 43.0 10.4 42.0
3. Manufacturing 117 195 4 5 67.4 3.1 1.6
4. Building 342 512 11 12 49.6 62.8 12.3
5. Transport 281 355 9 8 26.3 21.4 6.0
6. Distribution 831 931 26 22 12.0 103.1 11.1
7. Tourism 195 293 6 7 50.5 22.2 7.6
8. Financial sector 125 126 4 3 0.8 12.9 10.2
9. Others 1140 1624 36 39 42.5 71.8 4.4
10. Total 3196 4197 100 100 31.3 313.5 7.5
29
2.10 Commercial Banks’ Assets
• Total assets of the commercial banks increased by 17% on year-on-year basis from
D11.3 billion at end-Sep 2008 to D13.2 billion at end-Sep 2009.
• Gambian banks do not have large exposure to foreign assets or foreign liabilities. At
end-Sept 2009, foreign assets constituted only 8.8% of total assets (foreign exchange
1.4%, balances abroad 6.4% and foreign investment 1%), up from 6.9% a year ago
(foreign exchange 1.7%, balances abroad 4.3% and foreign investment 0%).
• Gambian banks also do not have large contingent liabilities. At end-Sep 2009 contingent
liabilities constituted 13.2% of total liabilities, compared to 10.3% a year ago.
• At end-Sept 2009, loans and advances constituted 28.1% of total assets and the ratio
remained fairly stable during 2009.
• At end-Sept 2009, investments in government Treasury Bills by the banks increased by

0.7% and constituted 24.1% of their total assets. As expected, three large banks had the
dominant share.
• At end-Sept 2009, investments in government Treasury Bills by the banks constituted

24.1% of their total assets. As expected, three large banks had the dominant share.
• At end-Sept 2009, loans and advances to the public sector increased by 118%, while
those to the private sector increased by only 7.9% over end-Sept 2008.
Table-2.10: Commercial Banks Assets at the end-Sept 2009 (Million Dalasi)

Assets (Million Sep-2007 Sep-2008 Sep-2009 Composition (%) % ch. Sp08 %ch. Sp09
Dalasi) Sep-2008 Sep-2009 over Sp07 over Sp08
1. Notes and coins 126.9 172.5 194.0 1.5 1.5 35.9 12.5
2. Foreign exchange 144.4 196.5 186.7 1.7 1.4 36.1 -5.0
3. Local Bank balance 957.1 912.1 1,013.3 8.1 7.7 -4.7 11.1
ii. CBG 947.7 907.7 933.0 8.0 7.1 -4.2 2.8
iii. Banks locally 9.4 4.4 80.3 0.0 0.6 -52.6 1711.6
4. Balances abroad 1,095.8 489.4 846.4 4.3 6.4 -55.3 72.9
5. Bills purchased 15.0 83.9 112.1 0.7 0.8 461.1 33.6
6. Loans and advances 2,152.8 3,088.6 3,711.7 27.4 28.1 43.5 20.2
i. Public sector 107.0 344.6 750.6 3.1 5.7 221.9 117.9
ii. Private sector 2,045.8 2,744.0 2,961.1 24.3 22.4 34.1 7.9
7. Investments 2,797.4 3,415.3 3,421.2 30.3 25.9 22.1 0.2
i. Govt Treasury Bills 2,591.6 3,151.1 3,174.3 27.9 24.1 21.6 0.7
ii. Others 151.9 167.1 117.3 1.5 0.9 10.0 -29.8
iii Foreign Invest. 53.9 97.1 129.6 0.9 1.0 80.2 33.5
8. Fixed assets 485.2 806.5 979.2 7.1 7.4 66.2 21.4
9. Guarantees 1,147.4 1,157.6 1,824.5 10.3 13.8 0.9 57.6
10. Other assets 747.0 958.7 908.2 8.5 6.9 28.3 -5.3
11. Total assets (1 to 10) 9,668.8 11,281.0 13,197.3 100.0 100.0 16.7 17.0
12. Net Balance (11-9) 8,521.5 10,123.4 11,372.8 89.7 86.2 18.8 12.3
Memo: Foreign Assets 1,294.0 782.9 1,162.7 6.9 8.8 -39.5 48.5
Source: Central Bank of Gambia.
30
2.11 Commercial Banks’ Liabilities
• As mentioned earlier, Gambian banks do not have large exposure to foreign liabilities.
At end-Sept 2009, external sector related liabilities constituted only 1.5% of total
liabilities (non-residents deposits 1.2%, balances with banks abroad 0.1% and external
debt 0.2%), down from 2.9% a year ago (non-residents deposits 1%, balances with
banks abroad 0.8% and external debt 1%).
• At end-Sep 2009 bank deposits increased by 19.2% over a year, aided by a growth of
18% in demand deposits, 12.1% in savings deposits and 31.2% in time deposits.
• At end-Sep 2009 banks capital and reserves increased by 1.4% and bank balances
increased by 113%, while borrowings declined by 38.4% over end-Sep 2008.
• At end-Sep 2009, direct contingent liabilities (i.e. guarantees) of banks increased by

57.6% over end-Sep 2008 and constituted 13.8% of total liabilities.
Table-2.11: Commercial Banks Liabilities at the end-Sept 2009 (Million

Dalasi)
Liabilities (Million Sep-2007 Sep-2008 Sep-2009 Composition (%) %ch. Sp08 %ch. Sp09
Dalasi) Sep-2008 Sep-2009 over Sp07 over Sp08
1. Capital and reserves 1,083.6 1,494.2 1,514.8 13.2 11.5 37.9 1.4
2. Demand deposits 2,181.5 2,759.7 3,255.5 24.5 24.7 26.5 18.0
i Residents 2,019.0 2,446.3 2,712.1 21.7 20.6 21.2 10.9
ii Non residents 12.7 21.9 18.8 0.2 0.1 71.9 -14.1
iii Government entities 149.8 291.5 524.6 2.6 4.0 94.5 80.0
3. Savings deposits 2,676.0 2,617.2 2,935.2 23.2 22.2 -2.2 12.1
i Residents 2,595.2 2,524.1 2,844.7 22.4 21.6 -2.7 12.7
ii Non residents 74.3 81.0 79.1 0.7 0.6 9.1 -2.3
iii Government entities 6.5 12.2 11.3 0.1 0.1 88.7 -6.9
4. Time deposits 1,478.8 1,794.0 2,354.4 15.9 17.8 21.3 31.2
i Residents 1,131.9 1,329.9 1,674.6 11.8 12.7 17.5 25.9
ii Non residents 16.6 16.9 65.4 0.1 0.5 1.6 287.1
iii Government entities 330.2 447.1 614.5 4.0 4.7 35.4 37.4
Total deposits 6,336.2 7,170.8 8,545.2 63.6 64.7 13.2 19.2
5. Bank Balances 45.4 135.5 288.3 1.2 2.2 198.2 112.8
i HO & branches 45.4 6.5 273.5 0.1 2.1 -85.7 4120.0
ii Other banks abroad 0.0 87.0 14.8 0.8 0.1 414181.0 -82.9
iii. Banks locally - 42.0 - 0.4 0.0 -
6. Borrowings from 117.0 241.0 148.5 2.1 1.1 106.0 -38.4
i Cent. bank of Gambia - - - 0.0 0.0
ii Other banks locally - - - 0.0 0.0
iii HO & branches 49.8 123.5 123.5 1.1 0.9 148.0 0.0
iv Other banks abroad 47.8 117.5 25.0 1.0 0.2 -78.7
v. Other sources 19.4 - - 0.0 0.0
7. Guarantees 1,147.4 1,157.6 1,824.5 10.3 13.8 0.9 57.6
8. Other liabilities 939.2 1,081.9 876.1 9.6 6.6 15.2 -19.0
9. Total liabilities (1 to 8) 9,668.8 11,281.0 13,197.3 100.0 100.0 16.7 17.0
10. Net balance (9-7) 8,521.5 10,123.4 11,372.8 89.7 86.2 18.8 12.3
Memo: Foreign liabl. 151.4 324.2 203.1 2.9 1.5 114.2 -37.4
31
2.12 Interest Rates and Central Bank Policy Rates
Interest rate on government treasury bills declined from 31% in 2003 to 14.9% in 2006 and
further to 13.7 per cent in 2007. It ranged in between 13.1% to 14.7% during 2008. The bank
rate of the CBG declined from 29% in 2003 to 9% in 2007, but was raised to 10% at the end of
2007 to check effective demand and inflationary pressures on the economy.
In response to tight monetary conditions and against a backdrop of falling inflation, the CBG
reduced the statutory minimum reserve requirement of banks from 16% to 14% in March 2008.
The CBG rediscount rate declined from 34% in 2003 to 14% in 2004. In order to counter
emerging inflationary pressures, the CBG raised its rediscount rate by one percentage point
from 14% to 15% in June 2007, and further to 16.0% in October 2008. The rediscount rate has
remained unchanged at 16% since then.
Despite significant fall of the yields on treasury bills in recent years, maximum short-term
deposit rates and commercial banks’ lending rates remain very high, and there exist wide
interest rate spreads. Successful disinflation allowed the weighted yield on treasury bills to fall
from over 25% in early 2005 to 12.1% in October 2009. By contrast, commercial banks’ lending
rates remained sticky above 20% due to high operating costs and risks of bank credits.
Appropriate monetary policies are necessary to reduce the maximum short-term deposit
rates and the lending rates.
Table-2.12: Trends of Nominal Interest rates (per cent per annum, end period)
Items 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bank lending rare- min 18 18 17 21 21 21 18 18 18 18
Bank lending rare- max 24 24 24 36.5 36.5 30 28 27 27 27
Deposit rate (SB) min 8 8 8 8 10 5 5 5 4 4
Deposit rate (SB) max 10 10 10 17 17 10 7 7 7 7
Time dep (3 months) min 9.5 9.5 6 7 8 5 5 5 5 5
Time dep (3 months) max 12.5 12.5 13 22 22 14 8.5 12.9 13.6 15.5
Time dep (6 months) min 10 10 6 8 8 7 6 6 6 6
Time dep (6 months) max 12.5 12.5 13 22 22 15 13 12.9 13.6 15.5
Time dep (12 month) min 11 11 7 10 12 7 6 7 7 6
Time dep (12 month) max 12.5 12.5 13 22 23 13 13 12.9 13.6 15.5
Govt. treasury bills 12 15 20 31 30 16 12.8 13.7 13.6 14.2
CBG Bank Rate 10 13 18 29 28 14 9 10 10 10
CBG Rediscount Rate 15 18 23 34 33 19 14 15 16 16
Range = Maximum-Minimum
Bank lending rate 6 6 7 15.5 15.5 9 10 9 9 9
Deposit rate (SB) 2 2 2 9 7 5 2 2 3 3
Time deposits (3 months) 3 3 7 15 14 9 3.5 7.9 8.6 9.5
Time deposits (6 months) 2.5 2.5 7 14 14 8 7 6.9 7.6 9.5
Time deposits (12 month) 1.5 1.5 6 12 11 6 7 5.9 6.6 9.5
Factors Influencing Interest Rates
Inflation (GDP-Deflator) 3.6 14.9 15.0 22.9 13.6 3.9 0.0 2.0 8.0 4.7
CPI-Inflation 0.9 4.5 8.6 17.0 14.3 5.0 2.1 5.4 4.9 4.5
Real GDP-Growth Rate 5.5 5.7 0.7 2.4 2.1 -0.1 3.1 6.3 6.3 5.0
Exch. Rate change (%) 12.2 22.7 27.0 43.2 5.3 -4.8 -1.8 -11.4 -9.8 15.9
Source: Central Bank of Gambia (CBG)
32
2.13 BOP, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rates
(a) BOP Situation in 2008
(a) Overall BOP outcome in 2008 was not as bad as they were anticipated earlier. Year end
foreign exchange reserves at US$125.2 million were still equal to 5.7 months of c.i.f. imports
compared to US159.4 million equal to 6.2 months at end-2007
(b) BOP estimates indicate an overall deficit of D767.3 billion (- $34.2 million), amounting to (-)
3.4 percent of GDP in 2008 compared to a surplus of D741.7 million ($29.8 million),
amounting to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2007, reflecting the deterioration in both the current and
the capital and financial accounts. The Net Usable Reserve of the CBG stood at US$95.6
million at end-March 2009 and was above the IMF Program target (floor) by US$3.6 million.
(c) The goods account deficit improved from a deficit of D3.52 billion, amounting to 17.2 percent
of GDP in 2007 to a deficit of D2.92 billion, amounting to 12.8 percent of GDP in 2008, or a
decline by 17.14%.
(b) BOP Situation in 2009-Q1
• Provisional BOP estimates for the first quarter of 2009 indicate an overall deficit of D468.9 million
(US $17.9 million) compared to D7.42 million (US $0.34 million) in the first quarter of 2008. The
current account deficit, including official transfers, amounted to D234.3 million compared to a
surplus of D4.94 million a year ago. The capital and financial account widened from a deficit of
D12.36 million in the first quarter of 2008 to D234.53 million in the first quarter of 2009.
(c) BOP Situation in 2009-Q2
BOP estimates by the CBG for the first half of 2009 (i.e. Jan-June 2009) indicated that the
overall BOP deficit narrowed to D348.44 million in 2009 from D376.5 million in Jan-June 2008.
The current account recorded a surplus of D163.48 million in Jan-June 2009 compared to a
deficit of D276.1 million in Jan-June 2008. The capital and financial account balance worsened
to deficit of D511.92 million in Jan-June 2009 from a deficit D100.4 million in Jan-June 2008
reflecting the decline in reinvested earnings and equity capital.
The goods account balance improved from a deficit of D1.4 billion in Jan-June 2008 to D1.1
billion in Jan-June 2009 attributed to the surge in exports which more than offset the increase in
imports. Exports, including re-exports rose to D2.2 billion in Jan-June 2009 compared to D1.4
billion Jan-June 2008.
(d) Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rates
Volume of transactions in the domestic foreign exchange market contracted to US$1.3 billion in
the year to end-September 2009 from US$1.6 billion a year earlier. The domestic currency
depreciated by 7.9 percent on the overall nominal exchange rate index of currencies compared
to an appreciation of 1.6 percent in the preceding year. From December 2008 to end-September
2009, the Dalasi depreciated against the British Pound, US Dollar, CFA Franc and euro by 7.1
percent, 17.5 percent, 9.4 percent and 8.2 percent respectively.
Gross official reserves, including Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation from the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), as at end-September stood at US$141.3 million, equivalent to 6.0 months
of import cover.
33
Table-2.13A: Quarterly BOP Summary Table 2008-2009Q2

In Million Dalasi
(Million Dalasi) 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008 2009- 2009-
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
1 Goods balance (1.1- -761.3 -612.0 -627.8 -918.1 - -683.9 -
1.2) 2919. 399.0
1
1.1 Exports of goods 804.9 788.2 699.4 883.3 3175. 934.5 1331.
(a+b+c) 8 6
a. Exports of goods in 69.0 125.1 80.3 56.0 330.4 239.1 597.8
trade stat
b. Re-exports 639.6 571.8 542.0 735.7 2489.1 660.9 706.8
c. Other goods 96.3 91.3 77.1 91.6 356.2 34.5 27.0
1.2 Imports of goods fob 1566.1 1400.2 1327. 1801. 6094. 1618. 1730.
2 3 9 4 6
2 Services, net (2.1 to 542.4 57.0 -69.5 183.6 757.5 370.3 19.7
2.7)
2.1 Transport -137.4 -96.3 -71.5 -128.9 -434.1 -123.6 -
124.3
2.2 Travel 800.9 196.3 143.9 483.0 1624.1 615.7 190.1
2.3 Communications 49.2 79.4 44.8 41.0 214.4 52.4 82.9
2.4 Insurance -36.1 -38.8 -30.2 -41.0 -146.0 -38.0 -42.8
2.5 Construction 3.2 55.9 2.5 14.3 120.0 12.9 14.8
2.6 Information technology 0.0 -2.0 -21.5 -47.4 -70.9 -23.6 23.6
2.7 Others business -137.5 -137.5 -137.5 -137.5 -550.0 -125.5 -
124.5
3 Income -233.1 -176.0 -176.8 -171.5 -757.4 -74.8 -57.5
3.1 Investment income -275.8 -219.6 -223.8 -212.2 -931.4 -115.2 -98.9
3.2 Compensation to labor 42.7 43.6 47.0 40.7 174.0 40.3 41.4
4 Transfers, net 456.9 450.0 499.5 403.0 1809. 154.1 834.6
(4.1+4.2+4.3) 3
4.1 Official transfer 42.7 40.5 29.0 25.0 137.2 108.3 151.9
4.2 Remittances 219.2 249.1 370.7 356.7 1195.8 290.2 434.2
4.3 Other transfer 195.0 160.4 99.7 21.3 476.4 -244.4 248.5
5 Current account 4.9 -281.0 -374.5 -503.0 - -234.3 397.8
balance 1109.6
6 Capital Account 0.0 19.1 3.2 2.0 24.4 0.0 0.0
7 Financial Account -12.4 -107.2 26.5 411.0 317.9 -234.5 -
(7.1+7.2) 277.4
7.1 Foreign direct investment 411.4 411.4 366.5 366.5 1555.7 262.7 262.7
7.2 Other investment -865.0 -351.5 60.5 -273.6 - -311.1 -
1429.6 484.2
7.3 Reserve change 441.2 -167.1 -400.5 318.2 191.8 -186.2 -55.9
8 Capital and Financial A/C -12.4 -88.1 29.7 413.0 342.3 -234.5 -
(6+7) 277.4
9 Overall BOP Balance -7.4 -369.1 -344.8 -89.9 -767.3 -468.9 120.4
(5+8)
Foreign Exchange Reserve 4428.2 4059.1 3714. 3624. 3624. 3155. 3275.
3 4 4 5 9
34
Equi to months of imports 7.4 7.6 7.3 5.2 6.2 5.1 4.9
Ave.Exch.rate(D/$) 21.23 20.47 21.81 25.90 22.35 26.19 26.8
GDP at cmp (Million Dalasi) 18240 18240 18240 18240 18240 19529 1952
9
35
Table-2.13B: Quarterly BOP Summary Table 2008-2009Q2

In Million US dollar
(Million US$) 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008 2009- 2009-
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
1 Goods balance (1.1- -35.9 -29.9 -28.8 -35.4 -130.6 -26.1 -14.9
1.2)
1.1 Exports of goods 37.9 38.5 32.1 34.1 142.1 35.7 49.7
(a+b+c)
trade stat
b. Re-exports 30.1 27.9 24.9 28.4 111.4 25.2 26.4
c. Other goods 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 15.9 1.3 1.0
1.2 Imports of goods fob 73.8 68.4 60.9 69.5 272.7 61.8 64.6
2 Services, net (2.1 to 25.5 2.8 -3.2 7.1 33.9 14.1 0.7
2.7)
2.1 Transport -6.5 -4.7 -3.3 -5.0 -19.4 -4.7 -4.6
2.2 Travel 37.7 9.6 6.6 18.6 72.7 23.5 7.1
2.3 Communications 2.3 3.9 2.1 1.6 9.6 2.0 3.1
2.4 Insurance -1.7 -1.9 -1.4 -1.6 -6.5 -1.5 -1.6
2.5 Construction 0.2 2.7 0.1 0.6 5.4 0.5 0.6
2.6 Information technology 0.0 -0.1 -1.0 -1.8 -3.2 -0.9 0.9
2.7 Others business -6.5 -6.7 -6.3 -5.3 -24.6 -4.8 -4.6
3 Income -11.0 -8.6 -8.1 -6.6 -33.9 -2.9 -2.1
4 Transfers, net 21.5 22.0 22.9 15.6 80.9 5.9 31.1
(4.1+4.2+4.3)
4.2 Remittances 10.3 12.2 17.0 13.8 53.5 11.1 16.2
4.3 Other transfer 9.2 7.8 4.6 0.8 21.3 -9.3 9.3
5 Current account 0.2 -13.7 -17.2 -19.4 -49.6 -8.9 14.8
balance
6 Capital Account 0.0 0.9 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.0
7 Financial Account -0.6 -5.2 1.2 15.9 14.2 -9.0 -10.4
(7.1+7.2)
7.2 Other investment -40.7 -17.2 2.8 -10.6 -64.0 -11.9 -18.1
7.3 Reserve change 20.8 -8.2 -18.4 12.3 8.6 -7.1 -2.1
8 Capital and Financial A/C -0.6 -4.3 1.4 15.9 15.3 -9.0 -10.4
(6+7)
9 Overall BOP Balance -0.3 -18.0 -15.8 -3.5 -34.3 -17.9 4.5
(5+8)
Foreign Exchange 208.6 198.3 170.3 139.9 162.1 120.5 122.2
Reserve
Equi to months of 7.4 7.6 7.3 5.2 6.2 5.1 4.9
imports
Ave.Exch.rate(D/$) 21.2 20.5 21.8 25.9 22.4 26.2 26.8
GDP at cmp (Million US$) 859.2 891.1 836.3 704.2 816.0 745.7 728.7
36
Table-2.13-C: Quarterly BOP Summary Table 2008-2009Q2

AS percentage of GDP at current market prices
BOP as % of GDP 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008- 2008 2009-Q1 2009-
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2
1 Goods balance (1.1- -4.2 -3.4 -3.4 -5.0 -16.0 -3.5 -2.0
1.2)
1.1 Exports of goods 4.4 4.3 3.8 4.8 17.4 4.8 6.8
(a+b+c)
trade stat
b. Re-exports 3.5 3.1 3.0 4.0 13.6 3.4 3.6
c. Other goods 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 2.0 0.2 0.1
1.2 Imports of goods fob 8.6 7.7 7.3 9.9 33.4 8.3 8.9
2 Services, net (2.1 to 3.0 0.3 -0.4 1.0 4.2 1.9 0.1
2.7)
2.1 Transport -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -2.4 -0.6 -0.6
2.2 Travel 4.4 1.1 0.8 2.6 8.9 3.2 1.0
2.3 Communications 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.4
2.4 Insurance -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -0.2 -0.2
2.5 Construction 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.1
2.6 Information technology 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.1
2.7 Others business -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -3.0 -0.6 -0.6
3 Income -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -4.2 -0.4 -0.3
4 Transfers, net 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.2 9.9 0.8 4.3
(4.1+4.2+4.3)
4.2 Remittances 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.0 6.6 1.5 2.2
4.3 Other transfer 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.6 -1.3 1.3
5 Current account 0.0 -1.5 -2.1 -2.8 -6.1 -1.2 2.0
balance
6 Capital Account 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
7 Financial Account -0.1 -0.6 0.1 2.3 1.7 -1.2 -1.4
(7.1+7.2)
7.2 Other investment -4.7 -1.9 0.3 -1.5 -7.8 -1.6 -2.5
7.3 Reserve change 2.4 -0.9 -2.2 1.7 1.1 -1.0 -0.3
8 Capital and Financial A/C -0.1 -0.5 0.2 2.3 1.9 -1.2 -1.4
(6+7)
9 Overall BOP Balance 0.0 -2.0 -1.9 -0.5 -4.2 -2.4 0.6
(5+8)
Foreign Exchange 24.3 22.3 20.4 19.9 19.9 16.2 16.8
Reserve
37
Table-2.13-D: Quarterly BOP Summary Table 2008-200Q1

Percentage change over same quarter of previous year (%)
Items 2009-Q1 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q2

(Dalasi) (US$) (Dalasi) (US$)
1 Goods balance (1.1-1.2) -10.2 -27.2 -34.8 -50.2
1.1 Exports of goods (a+b+c) 16.1 -5.9 68.9 29.0
a. Exports of goods in trade stat 246.6 181.0 377.8 265.0
b. Re-exports 3.3 -16.2 23.6 -5.6
c. Other goods -64.2 -71.0 -70.4 -77.4
1.2 Imports of goods fob 3.3 -16.2 23.6 -5.6
2 Services, net (2.1 to 2.7) -31.7 -44.7 -65.4 -73.6
2.1 Transport -10.1 -27.1 29.2 -1.3
2.2 Travel -23.1 -37.7 -3.1 -26.0
2.3 Communications 6.5 -13.6 4.4 -20.2
2.4 Insurance 5.5 -14.5 10.4 -15.7
2.5 Construction 297.2 222.0 -73.5 -79.7
2.6 Information technology - - -1260.1 -986.1
2.7 Others business -8.7 -26.0 -9.5 -30.8
3 Income -67.9 -74.0 -67.3 -75.1
3.1 Investment income -58.2 -66.1 -55.0 -65.6
3.2 Compensation to labor -5.5 -23.4 -5.1 -27.5
4 Transfers, net (4.1+4.2+4.3) -66.3 -72.7 85.5 41.7
4.1 Official transfer 153.7 105.7 275.1 186.5
4.2 Remittances 32.4 7.3 74.3 33.1
4.3 Other transfer -225.3 -201.6 54.9 18.3
5 Current account balance -4833.9 -3937.4 -241.5 -208.1
6 Capital Account - - -
7 Financial Account (7.1+7.2) 1797.6 1438.2 158.8 97.7
7.1 Foreign direct investment -36.1 -48.2 -36.1 -51.2
7.2 Other investment -64.0 -70.8 37.7 5.2
7.3 Reserve change -142.2 -134.2 -66.5 -74.4
8 Capital and Financial A/C 1797.6 1438.2 214.9 140.5
(6+7)
9 Overall BOP Balance (5+8) 6227.5 5029.2 -132.6 -124.9
Foreign Exchange Reserve -28.7 -42.2 -19.3 -38.4
Equi to months of imports -31.0 -31.0 -34.7 -34.7
Ave.Exch.rate(D/$) 23.4 23.4 30.9 30.9
GDP at cmp 7.1 -13.2 7.1 -18.2
2.14 Exchange Rate
38
• During Jan-April 2009, every month the Dalasi depreciated against major international
currencies (viz. US$, CHF, EURO and CFA) traded in the inter-bank market except the
UK£, reflecting the adverse impact of the global financial crisis on remittances and
tourism and increased demand for foreign exchange to meet the high cost of imports.
Since May 2009 Dalasi has also started depreciating against UK£.
• At end-Nov 2009, Dalasi has depreciated by ----% against British Pound, by ----%
against US$, by ----% against CHF, by ----% against Euro and by ----% against CFA over
end-Nov 2008.
Table-2.14 Inter-bank end-period mid-market exchange rates (Dalasi per

unit of foreign currency)
Year Month UK US$ CHF Euro CFA (5000)
2008 Jan 44.27 22.34 19.91 32.89 252.85
Feb 42.58 21.88 19.57 32.28 243.98
Mar 40.87 19.46 19.15 30.83 239.16
Apr 39.52 20.12 19.16 31.43 235.95
May 40.25 20.64 19.46 32.1 245.84
June 40.77 20.65 19.27 32.07 245.51
July 41.65 20.94 19.9 32.21 251.05
Aug 40.73 21.37 20.08 32.23 249.47
Sept 41.65 23.12 19.86 33.02 249.30
Oct 40.49 24.89 20.15 32.89 258.09
Nov 40.56 26.26 20.07 33.28 258.31
Dec 40.14 26.54 22.94 35.67 259.15
2009 Jan 37.25 26.07 20.85 33.52 262.81
Feb 37.38 26.11 22.04 33.6 257.78
Mar 38.18 26.38 23.31 35.22 259.30
Apr 39.05 26.80 23.00 35.32 262.17
May 41.40 26.74 22.40 37.00 265.98
June 43.13 26.87 21.96 37.04 272.87
July 43.31 26.79 24.42 38.06 277.53
Aug 43.80 26.63 24.36 37.68 281.45
Sep 42.99 26.95 25.47 38.61 283.58
Oct 43.48 26.91 26.07 39.61 297.13
Nov 26.64
Annual Rate of appreciation (-) / depreciation (+) of Dalasi (in % over same month in 2008)
2009 Jan -15.9 16.7 4.7 1.9 3.9
Feb -12.2 19.3 12.6 4.1 5.7
Mar -6.6 35.6 21.7 14.2 8.4
Apr -1.2 33.2 20.1 12.4 11.1
May 2.9 29.5 15.1 15.3 8.2
June 5.8 30.1 14.0 15.5 11.1
July 4.0 27.9 22.7 18.2 10.6
Aug 7.5 24.6 21.3 16.9 12.8
Sep 3.2 16.6 28.2 16.9 13.7
Oct 7.4 8.1 29.4 20.4 15.1
Nov 1.4
Source: Central Bank of Gambia (CBG)
39

Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin November 2009

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Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin November 2009

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The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- November 2009

THE GAMBIA MONTHLY

Institutional Support Project for Economic and Financial Governance (ISPEFG)

Political and Administrative Structure

Poverty Ratio (% of people Percent 59 7 out of 59 countries

ISPEFG Project/ Research Team and Document History 4

1. Global Economic Outlook 8-14

2. Current State of the Gambian Economy 15-36

2.4 Government Fiscal Performance 20

ISPEFG Project and Monthly Bulletin Research Team

Project Supervisor Honorable Mr. Serign Cham,

Project Coordinator Mr. Momodou Cham

Director (EMPU) Dr. Tamsir Cham

1. The Gambia Quarterly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-30, 31 March 2009.

Impact of Global Financial Crisis and Economic Slowdown

Global Food and Oil Prices

Impact on the Gambian Economy

Government Fiscal Performance

Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Yields

Money Supply and Bank Credits

Balance of Payments, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rate

At a Glance- October 2009

1. Global Economic Outlook

Prospects of Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: World Economic Outlook- Sustaining the recovery, October 2009,

IMF Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa

Figure 1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa: Projected GDP Growth, 2008–11

Source: IMF, African Department database.

1.2 World Commodity Prices

Table-1.2 Trends of World Commodity Prices

2. Current State of the Gambian Economy

GDP Composition(%) in 2009

Figure-2.1: Trends of sectoral growth rates during 2000-2009 (in percentage)

GDPMP Agriculture Industry Services

2.2 Consumer Price Index and Inflation

Table-2.2 CPI Inflation Rates in October 2009 (in percentage)

2.3 Projection of CPI inflation during November-December 2009

(3) Alternative-3: Average of inflation rates under Alternatives 1 and 2.

Table-2.3: Projections of CPI inflation during October-December 2009 (in percentage)

Average 5.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

2.4 Government Fiscal Performance in Jan-Oct 2009

2.5 Projection of Fiscal Outturn for the Year 2009

2.6 Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Outstanding

Table-2.6-A Outstanding Domestic Public Debt as on 31 October 2009

Type of debt Million Dalasi % change in Oct Composition

Domestic Debt Sustainability

Table-2.6-B Primary Benchmarks for Domestic Debt Sustainability Ratios (%)

Source: Central Bank of Gambia

2.7 Treasury Bills Yields

Table-2.7 Average yields on treasury bills (in percentage per annum)

Trends of Yields of Treasury Bills during 2007-2009

2.8. Money Supply

Table-2.8 Money Supply and Demand in Sept 2009

2.9 Performance by Commercial Banks

• As regards non-performing loans as a percentage of bank loans given to the sector, in

2.10 Commercial Banks’ Assets

• At end-Sept 2009, investments in government Treasury Bills by the banks increased by

• At end-Sept 2009, investments in government Treasury Bills by the banks constituted

Table-2.10: Commercial Banks Assets at the end-Sept 2009 (Million Dalasi)

Source: Central Bank of Gambia.

2.11 Commercial Banks’ Liabilities

• At end-Sep 2009, direct contingent liabilities (i.e. guarantees) of banks increased by

Table-2.11: Commercial Banks Liabilities at the end-Sept 2009 (Million