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A Genocide Foretold
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
Op-Ed Coluni!t
The New York Times
February 28, 2008
JUBA, Sud"n
The Sudanese governmen sared he !irs geno"ide o! he 2#s "enury in $ar!ur, and
now i seems o be %re%aring o sar he se"ond here among he ha"h&roo! hus o!
souhern Sud"n'
Sout# Sud"n is ri"h in oi(, bu is %eo%(e are among he %oores in he wor(d, !ar
%oorer han hose in $ar!ur' )n(y # %er"en o! gir(s here !inish e(emenary s"hoo(,
meaning ha a young woman is more (ike(y o die in %regnan"y or "hi(dbirh han o
be"ome (ierae' *e%rosy and +bo(a (inger here' Sout# Sud"n is he si,e o! Te-as, ye
i has on(y #0 mi(es o! %aved road and a(mos no e(e"ri"iy. /us abou he on(y
running waer here is he Ni(e 0iver'
The %overy is mos(y he resu( o! he "ivi( war beween Nort# and Sout# Sud"n ha
raged a"ross he souhern %ar o! he "ounry !or wo de"ades and "os 2 mi((ion (ives'
For many im%overished vi((agers, heir on(y e-%osure o modern e"hno(ogy has been
o endure bombings by he Sudanese Air For"e' The war !ina((y ended, hanks in %ar
o srong Ameri"an %ressure, in 2001 wih a (andmark %ea"e agreemen 2 bu ha
%ea"e is now !raying'
Sudanese 3residen )mar a(&Bashir is ba"king away !rom he %ea"e agreemen, and
%rodding Arab mi(iias o revive he war wih he Sout# Sud"n mi(iary !or"es' Sma((&
s"a(e armed "(ashes have broken ou sin"e (ae (as year, and i (ooks in"reasing(y
(ike(y ha $ar!ur wi(( be"ome sim%(y he %ro(ogue o a !ar b(oodier "on!(i" ha
engu(!s a(( Sud"n'
#
+ven my %resen"e here is a sign o! he rising ensions and misrus' The Sudanese
governmen re!uses me visas, bu he auhoriies in he !out# (e me ener !rom 4enya
wihou a visa be"ause hey wan he word o ge ou ha war is again (ooming'
The auhoriies in dis%ued areas su"h as he Nuba 5ounains and B(ue Ni(e Sae a(so
we("omed me, raher han arresing me, even hough hose areas e"hni"a((y are on he
norhern side o! he dividing (ine' *o"a( o!!i"ia(s in boh areas warned ha 3residen
Bashir and his radi"a( Arab %o(ii"a( %ary are %re%aring o revive he war agains non&
Arab grou%s in he !out# and "ener o! he "ounry'
67! hings go on as hey are now, war wi(( break ou,8 said Si(a 5usa 4angi, he
"ommissioner o! 4ormuk in B(ue Ni(e' 6And i "an break ou a any ime'8
A(hough %eo%(e s%eak o! renewed 6war,8 he vio(en"e is more (ike(y o resemb(e
wha ha%%ens in a so"kyard' 7! i is (ike he (as ime, governmen&s%onsored Arab
mi(iias wi(( s(augher "ivi(ians so as o errori,e (o"a( %o%u(aions and drive hem !ar
away !rom oi( we((s'
Under he 2001 dea( ha ended he war, Sud"n is su%%osed o ho(d e(e"ions ear(y
ne- year, bu 3residen Bashir is un(ike(y o a((ow hem be"ause he a(mos sure(y
wou(d (ose' *ikewise, 5r' Bashir is un(ike(y o abide by his "ommimen o a((ow he
!out# o ho(d a re!erendum in 20## o de"ide wheher o se%arae !rom Sud"n
be"ause souherners wou(d (ike(y voe overwhe(ming(y !or inde%enden"e 2 and more
han hree&9uarers o! he "ounry:s oi( is in he !out#'
A(ready, he Sudanese governmen is ba"kra"king on is "ommimens under he
;om%rehensive 3ea"e Agreemen, or ;'3'A'< 7 si(( hasn: wihdrawn a(( o! is roo%s
!rom he !out#. i hasn: a""e%ed a boundary "ommission re%or !or he oi(&ri"h
border area o! Abyei. i kee%s de(aying a "ensus needed !or he e(e"ions. and i
a%%ears o be "heaing he !out# o! oi( revenues' And he U'S' and oher "ounries
have a"9uies"ed in a(( his'
6=e say o he inernaiona( "ommuniy, >you midwi!ed he ;'3'A', and hen you (e!,:
8 said 0ebe""a ?arang, he widow o! he (ongime souhern (eader, John ?arang'
6You mus "ome ba"k and "he"k he baby'8
Those who !o"used on Sud"n:s aro"iies in $ar!ur, myse(! in"(uded, may have
inadveren(y removed he s%o(igh !rom Sout# Sud"n' =ihou easing he ourage
over $ar!ur 2 where he b(oodshed has been %ari"u(ar(y a%%a((ing (ae(y 2 we mus
broaden he !o"us o in"(ude he hrea o he !out#'
)ne o! he (essons o! $ar!ur, 0wanda and Bosnia is ha i is mu"h easier o aver a
geno"ide ahead o! ime han o %u he %ie"es ogeher a!erward' So (e:s no wai
uni( gunshos are ringing ou again a(( over he !out#'
There are se%s ha he U'S' "an ake o diminish he risk o! a new war' =e "an work
wih he inernaiona( "ommuniy o raise he "oss o 3residen Bashir o! de!ying his
reay ob(igaions'
2
=e "an warn Sud"n ha i! i sars a new war, we wi(( su%%(y ani&air"ra! wea%ons o
he !out# o make i harder !or he nort# o resume bombing hos%ia(s, "hur"hes and
s"hoo(s' =e "an a(so raise he %ossibi(iy o! %roe"ing he !out# wih a no&!(y ,one,
whi"h migh be enough o deer 5r' Bashir !rom saring ye anoher geno"ide'
Comment on this column on my blog at: www.nytimes.com/ontheground.
@A ;o%yrigh 2008 The New York Times ;om%any
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