KondIsI KetImpangan dI IndonesIa

Arief Anshory Yusuf

CEDS, Universitas Padjadjaran
Seminar ketimpanganpembangunanIndonesia dari berbagai aspek:
Mengurai TantanganPembangunan di Era PemerintahanBaru
J akarta, 21 Agustus 2014
www.ceds.fe.unpad.ac.id
EmpoweringCivilSocietyNetworksinanUnequal
MultiPolarWorld Indonesia(ECSNIndonesia)
Outline Outline
1 Indonesian level and trend of inequality in 1. Indonesian level and trend of inequality in
a global perspective.
2 The trend of Indonesian various 2. The trend of Indonesian various
indicators inequality
3 Th d A l ti 3. The causes and cures: An exploration
Indonesia can be categorized as a country of
high inequality and low income, ..
Source: CIA, World Fact Book, 2013, World Bank WDI, and authors calculation
.. and also of high inequality and high poverty. a d aso o g equa ty a d g po e ty
ZAF
6
0
HIGH POVERTY
LOW POVERTY
HIGH INEQUALITY
CHL
CRI
ECU
BRA
PER
PRY
PAN
COL
SLV
BOL
HND
SWZ
CAF
RWA
NGA
ZMB
5
0
HIGH POVERTY
HIGH INEQUALITY
INDONESIA
LTU
URY
ARG
MYS
THA
MEX
TUR
MKD
DOM
BTN
PER
SLV
FJ I
CHN
CMR
GEO
IDN
CIV
MRT
TGO
SEN
UGA
AGO
GIN
BFA
MOZ
MWI
MDG
LBR
4
0
G
i
n
i

I
n
d
e
x
MEDIAN INEQUALITY
INDONESIA
HRV
BLR
BIH
POL
WBG
BGR
LTU
LVA
KAZ
J OR
ROM
AZE
ALB
TUN
MDA
EGY
ARM
IRQ
KGZ
LKA
TJ K
VNM
SDN
KHM
NPL
ETH
IND
NER
BGD
MLI
SLE
BDI
3
0
HIGH POVERTY
O
V
E
R
T
Y
UKR
BLR
SVK
2
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
$
LOW INEQUALITY
LOW POVERTY
LOW INEQUALITY
M
E
D
I
A
N

P
O
PPP$2 Poverty Incidence
Source: World Bank Poverty & Inequality Database
Note: Using the most recent data from the last 5 years (2007-2011) where available.
Among developing countries, the increase in
Indonesian inequality over the last decade is q y
among the highest, while most others declined.
Source: World Bank Poverty & Inequality Database
Note: The inequality indicators are three-years average where data available.
Indonesian Gini coefficient has reached its record
high, contributed by its large increase in the last g , y g
decade. For the last decade it rise by ~30%
Source: SUSENAS (Authors calculation)
By other measure, the rise is ~60%
(Palma Index or decile dispersion (Palma Index or decile dispersion
ratio)
Palma Index Decile Dispersion Ratio
1.95
2.15
2.35
Palma Index =
share 10%
richest/share 40%
11
12
13
14
Mean income of
10% richest to
10% poorest
1.35
1.55
1.75
poorest
8
9
10
11
0 75
0.95
1.15
1.35
5
6
7
0.75
Palma Index (All) Palma Index (Urban)
4
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
All Indonesia Urban Rural
Palma Index (Rural) J ava Non-J ava
As also indicated by the increasing share of the
20%richest and declining share of 40%poorest 20% richest, and declining share of 40% poorest.
Source: SUSENAS (Authors calculation)
The large increase in equality happens
everywhere in Indonesia everywhere in Indonesia.
Source: SUSENAS (Authors calculation)
The lower the initial inequality, the higher its
change over time (Inequality convergence) change over time (Inequality convergence).
Source: SUSENAS (Authors calculation)
In a large number of highly unequal cities, poverty
incidence actually increased over the last decade.
This is despite the cities high economic growth This is despite the cities high economic growth
and national decline in poverty over the same
period.
4
.
5
HIGH INEQUALITY
DECLINING POVERTY
HIGH INEQUALITY
INCREASING POVERTY
.
3
.
4
f
f
i
c
i
e
n
t

i
n

2
0
1
2
MEDIAN INEQUALITY
.
2
G
i
n
i

c
o
e
f
E
R
T
Y

C
H
A
N
G
E
.
1
-20 -10 0 10
LOW INEQUALITY
DECLINING POVERTY
LOW INEQUALITY
INCREASING POVERTY
Z
E
R
O

P
O
V
E
Change in poverty incidence (2003-2013)
Non-city (kabupaten) City (kota)
Source: SUSENAS (Authors calculation, for Gini coefficient) and BPS (for poverty incidence)
Is the story mainly about the very rich leaving
everyone else behind? It may seemso everyone else behind? It may seem so.
Source: SUSENAS (Authors calculation)
Causes: An exploration Causes: An exploration
Less and less pro-poor growth Less and less pro poor growth
Commodity boom of the 2000s
Policy failures political economy bottleneck Policy failures political economy bottleneck
Mis-targetted subsidy
Rice policy p y
Labor market regulation
Institutions, governance, corruption
Failed functioning of state-budget
Inequality of opportunity
less pro-poor growth less pro poor growth
8
7
5
6
e
d
i
a
n

s
p
l
i
n
e
2002-2012
3
4
M
e
1990-1996
2
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percentiles
Inequality of opportunity? Inequality of opportunity?
6.00
Schooling years (year)
40.00
H.Education (%)
40.00
Clean water (%)
4.00
5.00
25 00
30.00
35.00
25 00
30.00
35.00
2.00
3.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1.00
2.00
5.00
10.00
5.00
10.00
0.00
0.00
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
7
2
0
1
0
0.00
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
7
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
2
Gap between 20% richest and 20% poorest
KESENJ ANGAN AKSES TERHADAP PENDIDIKAN
MASIH SANGAT TINGGI TALENT POOL RENDAH MASIH SANGAT TINGGI TALENT POOL RENDAH
Lama sekolah (tahun)
Angka partisipasi murni
SMA Lama sekolah (tahun) SMA
9 1
9.7
10
12
61%
62%
69%
0.7
0.8
5.4
7.9
9.1
6
8
0.4
0.5
0.6
3.4
4.6
5.4
2
4
19%
28%
0.2
0.3
0
2
1992 2002 2012
6%
0
0.1
1992 2002 2010
20% termiskin (Q1) 20% terkaya (Q5) 20% termiskin (Q1) 20% terkaya (Q5)
Sumber: www.keberpihakan.org
PERGURUAN TINGGI MASIH EKSKLUSIF
PT ADALAH PENGHASIL INOVATOR DAN WIRAUSAHAWAN
36.7%
40%
Angka partisipasi murni PT
25.6%
26.3%
36.7%
30%
35%
15%
20%
25%
1 3%
5%
10%
15%
0.1%
0.6%
1.3%
0%
1992 2002 2010
20%t i ki (Q1) Q2 Q3 Q4 20%t k (Q2) 20% termiskin (Q1) Q2 Q3 Q4 20% terkaya (Q2)
Sumber: www.keberpihakan.org
In Heckman (2001)
KUALITAS KESEHATAN ANAK
BALITAINDONESIARENDAH BALITA INDONESIA RENDAH
Pct of 5 years of age who are
Stunted
Percentage of Children under 5
years of age Affected by Wasting Stunted years of age Affected by Wasting
47.9
40 9
50
60
12.3
10.8
9.7
10
12
14
40.9
39.2
35.1
32.3
30.5
30
40
9.7
7.9
7.3
6.9
4.7
3 6
6
8
10
17.2
15.7
4.4
0
10
20
3.6
0
2
4
0
Sumber: FAO Food Insecurity Database
Cure: Equity for Growth
Keadilan untuk Pertumbuhan
PERTUMBUHAN PRODUKTIVITAS/
NEGARA
EKONOMI TINGGI DAYA SAING
LINGKUNGAN PENDUKUNG
PENDIDIKAN
INOVASI
KEADILAN/
PRAKONDISI
PEMERATAAN
PENDIDIKAN
MODAL PEMBANGUNAN
PEMERATAAN KESEMPATAN
KESEHATAN
INSANI MANUSIA
KESEHATAN
Terima Kasih Terima Kasih