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Scientific Bias & Error

Making effective experiments and watching out for fallacies.
Types of Fallacies
S Factual Error
-St. Paul is the capital of the
United States of America
-Alcohol has no smell.
S Inductive Fallacy
-Premise 1: Having just arrived
in Louisiana, I saw a black
alligator.
-Conclusion: All Louisiana
gators are black.
S Inductive Argument
-Premise 1: Most American
dogs are domesticated
-Premise 2: Jackson is an
American dog.
-Conclusion: Jackson is
domesticated
S Deductive Fallacy
-Premise 1: If Portland is the
capital of Maine, then it is in
Maine.
-Premise 2: Portland is in Maine.
-Conclusion: Portland is the
capital of Maine (Portland is in
Maine, but Augusta is the
capital.)
Fallacy Terms
S Argument: one or more premises & one conclusion.
S Premise: a statement (true or false) offered in support of
the claim made.
S Conclusion: (true or false) the claim made.
S Fallacy: error in reasoning.
S Scientific Bias: any deviation of results or inferences from
the truth

Types of Arguments
Deductive
S Premises give (or seem to give)
complete support of the
conclusion.
S Good deductive argument = a
valid one (has all true premises)

Inductive
S Premise gives (or seems to
give) some degree of support
(less than complete) for the
conclusion.
S Good inductive argument = a
strong one. If premises are true,
then the conclusion is likely
true.
Faulty Arguments
Deductive Fallacy
S Deductive argument where
premises do not have
necessary support for the
conclusion.
S Argument is invalid
-That means all premises
could be true, but the argument
could still have a false
conclusion.
Inductive Fallacy
S Less formal than a deductive
fallacy.
S Simply inductive arguments
with the same lack of support
for the conclusion.
S If the premises are true, that
does not mean the conclusion
would more likely be true.
Biased Sample
S Biased statistics, Loaded sample, Generalizations
S Drawing a conclusion about a population based on a sample
that is biased or prejudiced in some way
1. Sample S, which is biased, is taken from population P.
2. Conclusion C is drawn about pop. P based on S.
S Generalizations (Statistical/Inductive) are misuse of this
reasoning:
1. X% of all observed As are Bs
2. Therefore, X% of all As are Bs
S Sample of As = biased some way; means the pop. was not
adequately represented

Examples of Bias
S Someone takes a sample from a large
shipment of colored balls: some are
metal and some are plastic. If he used
a magnet to select his sample, then his
sample would include a
disproportionate number of metal balls
(IE, the whole sample will be what?)
Therefore, the conclusions he draws
will likely not represent the entire
population.
S If a person wants find out the general
populations opinion on gun control,
then a poll taken at an NRA meeting
would be a very biased sample.
S Large scale polls were taken in
Florida, California, and Maine and it
was found that an average of 55% of
those polled spent at least 14 days a
year near the ocean. So, it can be
safely concluded that 55% of all
Americans spend at least 14 days
near the ocean each year.
S Bill is assigned by his new editor to
determine what most Americans think
about a new law that will place a
federal tax on all modems and
computers purchased. The revenues
from the tax will be used to enforce
new online decency laws. Bill, being
technically inclined, decides to use an
email poll. In his poll, 95% of those
surveyed opposed the tax. Bill was
quite surprised when 65% of all
Americans voted for the taxes.
Accurate Sampling
S Random Sample: Chance determines which members of the
population are selected. Can be difficult to achieve complete
randomness.
S Stratified Sample: 1) Relevant strata (population subgroups)
are identified. 2) Number of members in each stratum is
determined. 3) A random sample is taken from each stratum
in exact proportion to its size.
S Time Lapse Sample: Taken by using a stratified or random
sample and in conjunction with at least one more sample,
along with a significant amount of time that passes in between
the first and second sampling. (Important for making
predictions)

Other Fallacies
S Ad Hominem: against the man (Irrelevant fact about person
making the claim interferes with conclusion.)
S Appeal to emotion
S Bandwagon
S Hasty generalization
S Red Herring (Topic A is discussed. Topic B is introduced under
the guise of being relevant to A (not really relevant). Topic A is
abandoned.