Pakistan is attracting a great deal of academic and analytical interest. That is not surprising.

Some have called it the most dangerous place on earth. The titles of a number of recent
books on Pakistan throw light on the various aspects of a state and society in deep trouble.
Anatole Lieven, in Pakistan: a hard country (2011), looks at the social and political structures
of a country that, even six-and-a-half decades after achieving independence, is still engaged
in the process of creating one nation out of many different people. The hard in the books
title has several meanings. To begin with, the country is not easy to understand. It is full of
contradictions: modernisation versus extreme conservatism; asceticism versus love for the
good things of life; a tradition of philanthropy versus little regard for the sufferings of the
less advantaged; isolationism versus a deep desire to work with the world, in particular the
West.
The hard also refers to the fact that though torn by numerous conflicts that divide its
people, the country keeps muddling through. It is a hard country to put down. What gives it
resilience is the set of local loyalties that bind the citizens to the members of the political
establishment that, in turn, meet the peoples basic needs and aspirations.
Maleeha Lodhis Pakistan beyond the crisis state (2011) is a rare book in the sense that its
contributing authors are positive about the countrys future. They believe that the
contemporary security challenges and long-term demographic pressures and energy
shortages can be overcome if the countrys political establishment can muster the political
will to undergo wide-ranging institutional and structural economic reforms. The authors
look at what might emerge in the country once the difficulties it faces are overcome. At the
end of a long tunnel through which the country is now passing, they see it emerging not very
different from a number of other Asian states that have already produced high rates of
sustainable GDP growth. They argue that Pakistan is capable of transitioning itself into a
stable modern Islamic state, though bold reforms are necessary. The country can be reeled
back from the brink of crisis.
According to Ahmed Rashid, the country is already on the brink. His latest book, Pakistan on
the brink: the future of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the West (2012), adopts a tone even more
somber than his earlier ones. His reading of the Pakistani situation is different from that of
Lieven and those of the contributors to Lodhis volume. The former sees some resilience in
the structure of the Pakistani society, while the latter believe that actions by the ruling
establishment can not only save the situation from further deterioration, they can also move
the country toward a better future. Rashid, however, is considerably less optimistic. He lays
the blame equally on those who have ruled in the past and those who are ruling right now.
They take no responsibility for providing services to the public, while indulging in large-
scale corruption. They allow an unprecedented economic meltdown to become worse by
declining to carry out reforms or listening to international advice.
Some of the analytical interest in Pakistan looks at the impact it is likely to have on the
world if the crises it faces are not managed. According to Zahid Hussains The scorpions tail:
the relentless rise of Islamic militancy and how it threatens America (2010), Pakistan carries a lot
of poison stored in its body. Provoked, it will sting. Having delivered the poison it carries it
may die, as scorpions are said to do once they have attacked, but its sting could prove to be
fatal for its victim. Stephen Cohens The Future of Pakistan (2011), (which he has edited) does
not believe, at least according to the volumes editor, that the country has much of a future.
But, in line with Zahid Hussain, the editor of this rather depressing volume suggests that
this highly troubled South Asian nation will go a long way toward determining what the
world looks ten years from now. They advise the world to watch Pakistan closely and
prepare for the worst.
To this list of recently publishedbooks we should add the World Banks World Development
Report, 2010 which comes with the subtitle, Conflict, Security and Development . While not
entirely focused on the situation in Pakistan, It sees the country belonging to the category of
what it calls fragile states. The Banks report has one powerful message: that there is
enough evidence from around the globe to suggest that the fragility of the states it examines
need not result in their failure. They can recover but will need to be kept on life support for
years to come.
There is one thing common to all these analyses. They focus on many crises Pakistan
currently faces. It is a perfect storm through which the country will have to navigate.
Whether it can go through without capsizing will depend on how the Pakistani
establishment is able to steer the state towards the safety of a shore. What will help those in
command is to develop a better appreciation of the nature of the many crises they must deal
with. They should also have some idea about the way the country dealt with crises in the
past.


Ever since the energy crisis hit the country, the whole nation is looking for an answer to
one question will it ever end? This is just one simple question which many governments
have failed to address. The former Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) government gave false
hopes to the people and as evident, even after the end of their five-year tenure, there is no
improvement in the energy sector and the people are left suffering from 10 to 14 hours of
load shedding.
Since the formation of PML-N government with their aggressive energy policy cum metro
bus approach, the question arises again whether their energy policies will help curtail the
energy crisis till 2017 or at least reduce the number of load shedding hours.
Here is an analysis of the energy policy of Pakistan the government has released in October
2013. As per section 7 (1) of the National Power Policy which defines the supply strategy, the
government has planned a number of power projects which are expected to be completed
during their five-year term. The following projects have being initiated by government
expected to be completed by 2017-18:

This means that if everything goes as planned, the government will increase the generation
capacity by 5094 megawatt (MW) till the end of their five-year term. At present, we have an
installed capacity of 22,797 MW and the average demand is around 17,000 MW while the
short fall fluctuates between 4000 to 5000 MW.
The point of contention is whether the predicted figure of 5094 MW will be enough for
curtailing the energy crisis in the country. A load forecast report published by National
Transmission Dispatch Authority (NTDA) every year states that by 2017-18 the electricity
demand in the country will go up to 35,000 MW.
Now, for instance, if we add 5094 MW into the national grid till 2017 and considering that
the government brings installed capacity (22,797 MW) online by retiring the circular debt
and reducing the line losses by 9%, which means adding 27,891 MW under ideal
circumstances by end of 2017 even then if the demand side is considered, we will still be
facing a short fall of 7,109 MW (35,000 27,891) by the end of 2017.
The National Energy Policy of 2013 reflects on the governments attitude in resolving the
energy crisis of the country. The government needs to seriously revise their energy
policy keeping in view load forecast, otherwise the conditions will be worse than ever; the
nation will probably experience load shedding of 15 to 20 hours a day and many remote
areas will be left in darkness.
Almost 65% of Pakistans electricity production is based on thermal fuel sources such as
Residual Fuel Oil (RFO) and High Speed Diesel (HSD) which are highly expensive and non-
renewable sources of generation. Dependence on such fuels increases the cost of generation.
On the contrary, it has a negative impact on the environment due to excessive carbon oxide
emissions which result in climatic changes. Beside this, we are facing an acute shortage of
gas as well. If the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline had worked out, it would have been
contributing substantially to resolving the energy crisis. But unfortunately, due to foreign
pressure, the project eventually ended up in the loss of billions of rupees.
At present, to overcome the energy crisis and to meet future energy challenges, Pakistan
needs to build micro-hydro projects. They are cheaper and one of the most reliable forms of
renewable energy source.. We need to put our focus on energy conservation by minimising
energy usage through developing effective energy management plans and ensuring its
implementation in corporate, industrial and housing sectors. The government should set
energy conservation standards for large, medium and small scale industries and encourage
the industrial sector to reduce their energy consumption by benchmarking their energy
usage and energy saving drives.
Moreover, Independent Power Producers (IPPs) should be provided subsidy and tax rebates
so that they can enter into Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with industrial owners and
sell electricity on cheaper rates to industries which will eventually help catering the demand
of industrial consumers and decrease their reliability on the national grid.
Since solar technologies are becoming prominent all over the world due to massive decrease
in cost per watt from $7 per watt to $1 per watt, the concept of Net Metering should be
introduced to encourage domestic and commercial consumers to setup their own small scale
grid connected Photovoltaic (PV) solar plants. This step will not only help boosting the PV
solar market in Pakistan but will also result in adding surplus units to the national grid,
favouring both the user and utility service providers.
Pakistan has abundant resources of shale oil and gas which needs to be explored and can be
used effectively as alternative fuel for electricity generation. According to Energy
Information Administration (EIA), a US agency working on energy statistics and analysis
has estimated recoverable shale gas reserves of 105 Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) and more than
nine billion oil barrels within Pakistan. Thus overcoming the energy crisis in the five-year
term for any government will not be a problem if the existing resources are utilised
effectively.
If we really want to resolve the energy crisis in our country, our policy should focus on demand
based energy conservation and load forecasting of the upcoming years, and an effective
implementation plan. Otherwise, we will end up building more circular debt, hence leading
to prolonged periods of dark ages.