Climate Change and Peak Oil

By Kar Y. Lee, Ph.D.

Smashwords Edition
Copyright 2012 Kar Y. Lee
All rights reserved.
Initial Release Nov. 2012
Table o Content
Introduction
An interesting coincidence
! art 1 lo!al "ar#ing
Chapter 1 $ %he cli#ate&s natural cycles
Chapter 2 $ Car!on dio'ide and at#ospheric te#perature
Chapter ( $ Is glo!al )ar#ing good or !ad*
Conclusion on lo!al "ar#ing
! art 2 + ,ea-+.il
%he .il /oo#
0ou!t a!out actual )orld reserves
.il discovery rate and !ac-dating
Reserves and ,roduction Rate
1hale .il
.il 1hale
Conclusion on pea-+oil
Cli#ate change and pea-+oil
"ntrod#$tion
2134 killed in southern Russia floods disaster - Flash floods
deluged Russia's southern Krasnodar, killing at least 134
people in the region's worst natural disaster in decades,3 read
one ne)s headline on 4uly 56 2012. Rain poured do)n on the
Krasnodar region o7 Russia near the /lac- sea area6 du#ping as
#uch as 8 #onths )orth o7 rain7all in a #atter o7 hours6
7looding villages and stranded residents. %he a#ount o7 )ater
)as so huge that local people suspected6 though incorrectly6 that
it )as the release o7 )ater 7ro# near!y reservoirs that had
7looded their place.
%hen on 4uly 126 torrential do)npour !ored do)n on southern
4apan6 causing 7lash 7loods and displacing a 9uarter o7 a #illion
people. In so#e area6 rain as heavy as : inches per hour )as
recorded. %he pond surrounding the 4apanese cultural icon6 the
olden ,avilion6 over7lo)ed6 though the te#ple itsel7 re#ained
a!ove )ater.
"e have seen #ore and #ore o7 these -inds o7 e'tre#e )eather
pheno#ena. .nce+in+a+century events see# to !e occurring
annually6 or so it 7eels.
1o6 that&s )hy you have headlines li-e 2Start of 212, !arch
shatter "S heat records3. %his one is 7ro# an Associated ,ress
article on April ;6 2012. %he article continued6 2#he $agnitude
of how unusual the %ear has &een in the "'S' has alar$ed so$e
$eteorologists who ha(e warned a&out glo&al war$ing' )ne
cli$ate scientist said it is the weather e*ui(alent of a &ase&all
pla%er on steroids, with old records o&literated'3
%hen6 against this !ac-drop o7 e'tre#e )eather events6 earlier
in 20116 a No!el ,ri<e )inning physicist Ivar iaever decided
to resign 7ro# the A#erican ,hysical 1ociety over its position
on Cli#ate Change. A#erican ,hysical 1ociety&s o77icial
position has !een that yes6 cli#ate change is real6 and )e should
do so#ething a!out it. It )as this position that caused it its
support 7ro# iaever. iaever is a non+!eliever. =e thin-s
glo!al )ar#ing can !e good i7 it is real.
iaever is not alone in his position though. =e is also not the
only No!el ,ri<e )inning non+!eliever. >ree#an 0yson6
another physicist )ith a No!el ,ri<e under his !elt6 too is a non+
!eliever. 2+%son doesn,t den% that e-cess car&on dio-ide in the
at$osphere is war$ing the planet' .ut he predicts that
ad(ances in &io-technolog%/especiall% the creation of
geneticall% engineered car&on-eating plants, which he foresees
within two decades/will $itigate the da$age with a $ini$u$
of econo$ic and social disruption,3 e'plained a Nove#!er
200; article in %he Atlantic #aga<ine. It pro#pted )riter
Kenneth /ro)er to as-6 in another article in %he Atlantic6 20ow
could so$eone as s$art as +%son &e so du$& a&out the
en(iron$ent13 /ro)er o77ered an ans)er? great physicists are
o7ten contrarians.
.7 course6 not all No!el ,ri<e )inning scientists are non+
!elievers. I7 this )ere so6 the de!ate )ould have !een over. /ut
no6 not so 7ast. In 7act6 in @arch o7 20106 #ore than 2000
scientists and econo#ists6 including eleven No!el ,ri<e
)inners6 delivered a letter to the A.1. 1enate calling 7or the
1enate to address cli#ate change i##ediately. At the !eginning
o7 the letter6 it reads6 22e call on our nation,s leaders to swiftl%
esta&lish and i$ple$ent policies to &ring a&out deep reductions
in heat-trapping e$issions' #he strength of the science on
cli$ate change co$pels us to warn the nation a&out the
growing risk of irre(ersi&le conse*uences as glo&al a(erage
te$peratures continue to increase o(er pre-industrial le(els'3
As you can see6 cli#ate change is a di77icult topic. It is di77icult
even 7or the No!el laureates. 0o you thing the pu!lic has a
chance*
%he Internet is e'ploded )ith cli#ate change in7or#ation and
#is+in7or#ation. ,eople are as e#otionally charged as ever.
"hy are people so e#otionally charged* /ecause it can
potentially i#pact every one o7 us + not in the sense that natural
disasters can hit us all6 !ut in the sense that so#e govern#ent
actions can6 especially i7 the result is the esta!lish#ent or the
a!olish#ent o7 so#e govern#ental policy that every!ody has to
!e o!liged !y. I7 you !elieve glo!al )ar#ing is har#less6 )hile
the govern#ent )ants to i#pose ta' to #a-e your gasoline
#ore e'pensive6 ho) )ill you ta-e it* I7 your neigh!or )ants
the govern#ent to i#pose regulations on car!on dio'ide
!ecause heBshe !elieves glo!al )ar#ing is !ad6 ho) )ill you
ta-e your neigh!or* In so#e si<ea!le seg#ent o7 the society in
the Anited 1tates6 the >ederal govern#ent is perceived as a
greater threat than natural disasters6 so#eti#es rightly so6
though at the sa#e ti#e6 the sa#e seg#ent has also voted to
give the >ederal govern#ent #ore po)er to erode civil li!erty6
including ho) one should !ehave in his or her o)n !edroo#.
Isn&t that ironic*
Cli#ate change can !e discussed in t)o 7ronts. >irst6 is it real*
1econd6 i7 it is real6 is it !ad* A7ter all6 i7 cli#ate change is not
!ad6 )hy )orry a!out it even i7 it is real* ,art o7 )hat >ree#an
0yson )as saying is not that glo!al )ar#ing is not real6 !ut it
#ay not !e !ad6 and there is no point in !eing so alar#ed. A7ter
all6 plants gro) !etter )ith #ore car!on dio'ide around6 and
people regularly !reathe 1000 pp# Cparts per #illion6 ( ti#es
present at#ospheric levelD car!on dio'ide in o77ice
environ#ents )ith no apparent adverse e77ect.
%he 7irst 9uestion6 that )hether glo!al )ar#ing is real6 is a
scienti7ic one. %he second one is not. 1cienti7ic 9uestions tend
to have clear ans)ers. Non+scienti7ic 9uestions tend to have not.
"e )ill see #ore evidence o7 that in this !oo-.
As the saying goes6 i7 it does not -ill you6 it #a-es you stronger6
re7erring to so#e adverse situation that once you overco#e6 you
!eco#e stronger. No)6 then6 is the 2it3 that al#ost -illed you
good or !ad* I7 it is !ad6 it #ade you stronger. /ut i7 it is good6
it al#ost -illed you. 1o6 is it good or !ad* =o) do you ans)er
such a 9uestion6 such a non+scienti7ic6 value Eudg#ent 9uestion*
"hen a study sho)ing that )earing high heels can increase the
chance o7 having heart pro!le#s Ca scienti7ic state#entD )as
released6 a %F reporter )ent out to the street and intervie)ed
passing+!y high heel )earers. .ne )o#an intervie)ed said
dis#issively on %F6 2"hen that happens6 I )ill thin- a!out it63
and then strode o77 on her high heels6 )ith a certain degree o7
)o!!ling in her stri-es. %o a portion o7 the hu#an #ale
population6 that struggling )al- o7 a hu#an 7e#ale is perceived
as a se'y act. Apparently6 7or a portion o7 the hu#an 7e#ale
population6 the ris- o7 heart disease is not enough to overturn
the e'tra #ysterious sel7+con7idence that co#es )ith )earing
high heels. 2@en li-e high heels.3 1cience can tell you the
e77ect o7 )earing high heels6 !ut science cannot tell you )hether
it is good or !ad 7or you !ecause even it #ay shorten your li7e6
it could give you higher 9uality li7e i7 it also gives you so#e
psychological !oost. %his value Eudg#ent part6 is )hat you have
to decide 7or yoursel7. %he de!ate a!out cli#ate change has the
sa#e 7lavor.
In a 1ustaina!ility >oru# near /oston6 a !usiness#an
suggested6 2)nl% show people how $uch $one% the% can sa(e
&eing green' +on,t talk a&out glo&al war$ing' !an% people
don,t &elie(e it an%wa%'3 Ne) Yor- City #ayor @ichael
/loo#!erg goes one step 7urther. =e told Ira >lato)6 the host
o7 1cience >riday on National ,u!lic Radio6 23f %ou care a&out
the en(iron$ent, $% suggestion is do not tie it to glo&al
war$ing' .ecause no&od% cares or &elie(es what is going to
happen 4 %ears fro$ now'3
According to a allup ,olls study conducted in 2005 and 200G6
only :;H o7 A#ericans !elieved in hu#an caused glo!al
)ar#ing6 )hile #ore than ;0H o7 4apanese !elieve it. "here
you stand depends on )here you sit. I7 you are sitting on a land
o7 active geological activities6 you )ill pro!a!ly !elieve @other
Nature doesn&t al)ays !ehave li-e a #other. You !etter not get
her upset.
1cienti7ic data so#eti#es help 7uel the de!ate. >or e'a#ple6
sho)n in >ig. 1 is the change in ice coverage in the Arctic and
Antarctic regions in the last thirty years. ,lease ta-e a good
loo-. It has t)o curves6 one 7or the North ,ole and one 7or the
1outh ,ole. I7 the lo!e is getting )ar#er6 you should e'pect to
see less ice coverage on !oth poles6 right* /ut according to the
scienti7ic data6 they don&t. .nly the North ,ole has less ice. %he
1outh ,ole6 on the contrary6 has accu#ulated #ore ice.
>ig. 1
%his graph co#es 7ro# National 1no) and Ice 0ata Center
Cnsidc.orgD6 a neutral scienti7ic institution supported !y NA1A6
N1> CNational 1cience >oundationD and National .ceanic and
At#ospheric Ad#inistration CN.AAD. CI7 you insist6 li-e #any
conspiracy theorists6 that all these govern#ental organi<ations
lie and they provide 7alse data6 as so#e e'tre#e cli#ate
s-eptics clai#6 you instantly lost credi!ility in 7ront o7 #any
rational people.D %he red trend line sho)s a slight increase in
the a#ount o7 Antarctic ice since 1;5;6 )hile the !lue trend line
sho)s a dra#atic decline in Arctic ice since 1;5;.
.pponents o7 cli#ate change theory i##ediately call to
people&s attention that Antarctic ice has increased? ho) in the
)orld can the 1outh ,ole accu#ulate #ore ice )hen the earth is
)ar#ing up* /eing put to the de7ensive6 so#e supporters o7
the cli#ate change theory scra#!led to 7ind an e'planation Creal
scientists )ould loo- 7or the root cause 7or the apparent
inconsistency any)ayD 7or )hat is happening in Antarctica $
pro!a!ly a )ar#er at#osphere stores #ore )ater and so a
nor#ally dry Antarctica can e'perience #ore precipitations6
increasing the ice covering area )hile the te#perature there is
still pretty #uch !elo) 7ree<ing. At the sa#e ti#e6 they point
out the o!vious? ice cap at the North ,ole is indeed #elting
a)ay C!ut )hy the #echanis# that has lead to the increase in
1outh ,ole ice coverage does not occur in the northern
he#isphere* .h !ecause it is 2ice on land3 in Antarctica6 unli-e
2ice on )ater3 in the Arctic seaIand so on6 and so 7orth6 thus
the de!ateD.
In the su##er o7 20106 the capital city o7 Russia6 @osco)6
e'perienced one o7 the hottest su##ers in its recent history.
%he acco#panying 7orest 7ire cho-ed the Russian govern#ent
into !elieving that glo!al )ar#ing #ay indeed !e real6 and that
a )ar#er Jarth #ay indeed !e har#7ul to the 1tate o7 Russia.
/e7ore that6 their attitude had largely !een 22ar$ing1 2hat
war$ing1 5(en if it is true, $a%&e it is good for us &ecause our
tundra can &eco$e (er% producti(e and we will ha(e $ore of
our coastlines &ack'3
J9ually interesting is during a 2010 sno) stor#6 glo!al
)ar#ing theory opponents and tal-ing heads on radio such as
Rush Li#!augh got on the air )ave and as-ed6 22here is 6l
7ore183 as i7 )hat Al Core has !een advocating in his 26n
incon(enient truth3 had Eust !een proven )rong !y a single
sno) stor#. 27u%s, snow is cold, and there is no war$ing83
%he 7act is6 one heat )ave does not prove glo!al )ar#ing
theory right6 and one e'tre#e sno)stor# does not prove it
)rong Cso#e #ay argue that it actually helps prove it right
!ecause according to #ost cli#ate #odels6 higher glo!al
te#peratures lead to #ore e'tre#e )eather patterns6 !oth hot
and coldD. =o)ever6 proponents and opponents o7 cli#ate
change theory !oth have their voices in the #edia6 rein7orcing
the appearance that glo!al )ar#ing is controversial. And the
A#erican pu!lic is co#pletely con7used. Jven this !oo- su77ers
the sa#e short7all? presenting t)o No!el ,ri<e )inners against
eleven6 presenting opinions o7 scientists )ho are not )or-ing on
cli#ate science against those )ho are )or-ing on cli#ate
science6 as i7 their opinions )ere e9ual.
I7 cli#ate change is controversial6 the concept o7 pea-+oil is not6
at least in theory.
>or #ore than a century6 )e have !een drilling the earth 7or
!lac- gold to replace the )hale oil )e )ere !urning. "hen
petroleu# )as 7irst discovered6 it )as dirt cheap. It si#ply
spilled out o7 the earth i7 you drilled at the right place. It still
does as de#onstrated !y the /, !lo)out deep undersea in the
ul7 o7 @e'ico in the su##er o7 2010. /ut this -ind o7 places
is getting #ore and #ore di77icult to 7ind and you really have to
go to e'otic places6 such as the deep sea6 to 7ind the#. And
)hen you go to this -ind o7 e'otic places6 it is easier to get into
trou!le6 Eust as /, did. %he di77iculty adds to the cost6 there7ore6
the higher price.
/e7ore property right regarding su!terranean oil )as clearly
de7ined !y regulations in the Anited 1tates in the early days6
o7ten )hen an oil )ell )as discovered6 co#petitors ca#e and
drilled near!y and tapped into the sa#e oil 7ield )here the oil
)as located. As a result6 the party )ho could get the #ost oil
out !e7ore the 7ield ran dry )on. A glut o7 oil on the #ar-et
)as ensured and oil price 7re9uently collapsed. It there7ore
contri!uted to the cheapness o7 oil in the early days.
%he oil 7ields that )ere 7irst discovered )ere part o7 the lo)
hanging 7ruits. %hey )ere discovered 7irst e'actly !ecause they
)ere easy to discover. C"hat is the li-elihood o7 discovering a
di77icult+to+discover oil )ell co#pare to discovering an easy+to+
discover oil )ell*D "ith these lo) hanging 7ruits6 our #odern
civili<ations developed. Cheap oil ena!led the develop#ent o7
the auto#o!ile industry6 air travels6 and various -inds o7
#achineries that use the internal co#!ustion engine. %all
!uildings could then !e !uilt6 tunnels could then !e e'cavated6
superhigh)ays could then !e constructed6 and #ore cars could
!e running on the roads. In 7act6 the entire concept o7 to)n
planning in A#erica $ the concept o7 su!ur!s $ )as esta!lished
around the concept o7 cheap private transportations ena!led !y
cheap oil. In #any A#erican cities6 pedestrian is an
a7terthought. Cheap transportation 7ueled !y cheap oil is the
!ac-!one o7 #odern civili<ations.
=o)ever6 the pro!le# is that the earth does not have in7inite
a#ount o7 cheap oil in its crust6 or any oil 7or that #atter. At
so#e point6 our e'traction rate o7 petroleu# 7ro# the earth is
going to pea- and 7ro# that point on6 the cost o7 getting to the
underground oil !eco#es #ore and #ore e'pensive6 until )e
7inally give up !ecause it is too e'pensive to do it.
1o6 the concept o7 pea-+oil is very si#ple and non+
controversial6 though the ti#ing #ay still !e.
0o#estic pea-+oil 7or the Anited 1tates ca#e during 1;50s
)hen the state o7 %e'as6 )hich up to that point contained al#ost
hal7 o7 the oil discovered in the Anited 1tates6 announced that it
could no longer regulate the price o7 oil in the Anited 1tates.
/e7ore that6 i7 oil price rose in the Anited 1tates6 %e'as6 through
the %e'as Railroad Co##ission6 could increase oil production
9uota and the price pro#ptly 7ell. I7 the price 7ell too #uch6
%e'as could lo)er its production 9uota and the price )ould re+
!ounce Cto prevent oil producers 7ro# engaging in a ga#e o7
race to the !otto#D. %he state o7 %e'as virtually !eca#e the
regulator o7 oil price inside the Anited 1tates. /ut so#e ti#e in
the 50&s6 %e'as lost this control. %e'as& oil producing capa!ility
pea-ed at (.( #illion !arrels per day in 1;52 and has !een on
the decline ever since6 !ut the de#and had -ept going up6
there7ore )ent the control. /y 20106 %e'as )as only producing
a!out K as #uch as it once did during its pea-6 despite the 7act
that it still has plenty o7 reserves. %e'as& oil production has
!een rendered irrelevant in deter#ining the do#estic oil price6
and so on international price as )ell. %he price o7 oil inside and
outside o7 the Anited 1tates 7ell into the hands o7 the .,JC
countries6 )hich still control a lion share o7 the )orld&s lo)
hanging 7ruit oil reserves.
"hen .,JC too- over the role o7 oil price regulator in the
1;50s6 1audi6 the do#inant 7ounding #e#!er o7 .,JC6 )as
producing L #illion !arrels o7 oil per day Ca!out t)ice that o7
%e'as at that ti#eD )hile the Anited 1tates total )as producing
11 #illion !arrels per day Csource?
http?BB))).nation#aster.co#BgraphBeneMoilMproMinM1;5+
energy+oil+production+in+1;52D. =o)ever6 in 20116 the roles
have !een reversed. %he entire Anited 1tates& crude production
Ce'cluding li9ue7ied natural gas and ethanolD has dropped to 8.1
#illion !arrels per day )hile 1audi and Russia are leading the
pact )ith ; #illion !arrels per day each. /ut si' year !e7ore
that6 so#eti#e in 20086 the sa#e episode o7 losing control over
oil price played out in the international stage. %his ti#e it )as
the 1audi&s turn to lose the control. In 20086 )hen oil price shot
up to a record high Cup to that pointD o7 A1N80 per !arrel6 this is
)hat 4ohn ". 1choen reported on @1N/C.co#?
+espite a pledge &% )95: $inisters to increase oil
production, don't e-pect $uch of a &reak on oil prices'
2ith crude oil prices hitting a record ;4< a &arrel
2ednesda%, )95: $inisters $eeting in 3ran ha(e &een
grappling with a pro&le$ the% ha(en,t confronted in
the cartel,s 44-%ear histor%' 3n the past, )95: tried to
cool o(erheated prices &% pu$ping $ore when supplies
got too tight' .ut $ost )95: producers sa% the%,re
alread% pu$ping as fast as the% can' 6nd despite the
high cost of a &arrel of crude, world de$and shows no
signs of slowing'
%he .,JC oil #inisters ad#itted that they could no longer
regulate oil price and they !la#ed speculators 7or the price
7luctuation.
%he 7act that the oil #inisters had to !la#e speculators )as a
direct proo7 that .,JC6 and the rest o7 the )orld6 could no
longer #eet any 7urther increase in de#and. I7 there )ere still
e'cess oil producing capacity to !e pu#ped up6 the oil
producing countries )ould $ that could help to sti7le
invest#ents in alternative energies6 )hich could hurt the long
ter# pro7its o7 the oil producing countries $ !ut they did not.
%hey did not !ecause they could not.
>ig. 2 !elo) sho)s the Ne) Yor- @ercantile J'change L1
crude oil spot price 7ro# 1;G2 to 20116
>ig. 2
/et)een 1;G2 and 20086 crude oil price )as tightly #aintained
at !elo) A1N(8 per !arrel. %he .,JC countries had learnt
their lesson 7ro# the 1;50 oil e#!argo. %hey -ne) i7 they -ept
oil price too high6 even though they )ould #a-e #ore #oney
in the short run6 higher oil price )ould sti#ulate #ore research
and develop#ent into alternative energies6 )hich in the long
run )ould hurt their !usiness. 1o6 the goal )as to -eep oil price
at a 2reasona!le3 level so that there )as no incentive to
develop any alternative energy resources. /ut in 20086 oil price
shot up !eyond A1NL0 and no one )as a!le to do anything
a!out it. /ecause o7 the inelastic nature o7 short+ter# oil
consu#ption6 )hich itsel7 helped 7uel speculations6 oil price
-ept cli#!ing 7ro# 2008 to 200G6 s-yroc-eted to a historic
high o7 A1N180 per !arrel !e7ore the great recession hit. In the
Anited 1tates6 gasoline price )as pushing N8 a gallon. Jven
though it )as still relatively cheap 7ro# a Juropean standpoint6
#any o)ners o7 gas gu<<ling 1AFs and pic-up truc-s in the
A1 )ent into panic #ode. 1o#e sold their truc-s and 1AFs at
a !ig loss 7or #ore 7uel e77icient ones instead o7 seeing #oney
got suc-ed into the a!yss at the gas pu#ps. In #idst o7 high oil
prices6 charities and govern#ent agencies in the North Jast
regions o7 the Anited 1tates6 particularly in the /oston area6
!egan tal-ing a!out special su!sidies 7or the poor on heating
oil6 as the high oil price6 )hich ca#e rushing li-e a runa)ay
7reight train6 )as a!out to run over the area )hen )inter hit6
)ould price a lot o7 the poor out o7 the #ar-et.
=o)ever6 Eust as it happened6 the reat Recession hit at the
end o7 the su##er and it !rought do)n oil price to an
unrealistic N((.G per !arrel level on 0ec 22 o7 200G. "hat a
relie7O =o)ever6 7or the )or-ing poor Cor non+)or-ing poorD6 it
)as hard to say )hich )as )orse? high oil price or a reat
Recession.
As the )orld econo#ies slo)ly recovered6 crude oil price
started to cli#! again6 a hint that nor#al de#and had outpaced
supply. It again shot up !eyond A1N100 in 2011 despite an
ane#ic econo#ic recovery. I7 .,JC )as a!le to regulate oil
price li-e it did !e7ore6 oil price )ould not have #oved up so
#uch6 not #erely three years a7ter the great collapses o7 the
)orld&s econo#ies in #idst o7 an ane#ic gro)th.
"elco#e to ,ea-+.ilO
%n interesting $oin$iden$e
I7 you !elieve in cli#ate change6 then you #ight conclude that
)e need rene)a!le energy sources to 7end o77 a C.
2
induced
glo!al )ar#ing. /ut i7 you don&t6 ,ea-+.il still hits you. /oth
cli#ate change and ,ea-+.il point to the sa#e direction? the
need 7or the develop#ent o7 non+7ossil 7uel !ased alternative
energy sources to ta-e our civili<ation to the ne't level. In 7act6
in a larger conte't6 pea-+oil6 glo!al )ar#ing6 population
e'plosions6 environ#ental pollutions6 over 7ishing6 all these are
Eust part o7 a tidal )ave set o77 !y our increasing pro)ess and
our i#pacts on the environ#ent6 an environ#ent that )e so
dearly depend on. Alti#ately6 it is the 9uestion o7 ho) to
advance our civili<ation and econo#y sustaina!ly6 as opposed
to gro)ing unsustaina!ly li-e a colony o7 !acteria6 that gro)s
opti#ally )hen resources are availa!le6 !ut dies out )hen
resources are e'hausted. I hope the hu#ans can do !etter than
the !acteria.
%his !oo- is divided into t)o parts. %he 7irst part 7ocuses on
the evidence and anti+evidence o7 glo!al )ar#ing and ho) it
could a77ect our lives i7 it is true. %he second part 7ocuses on
the e77ect o7 running out o7 cheap oil6 and )hat )e should !e
doing to prepare ourselves 7or the inco#ing change.
Part " &'lobal (arming
Dii$#lties in determining global warming
In the past6 !ecause o7 the di77iculty in o!taining accurate
glo!al te#perature trend6 !oth !ecause o7 the lac- o7 data
going 7urther !ac- in history6 and the relia!ility and
interpretations o7 #any o7 the# including those instru#ental
records6 the result had !een 9uite controversial.
@easuring te#perature is a tric-y !usiness. I7 you have Eogged
outside in a hot su##er evening6 you pro!a!ly -no) )hat I
#ean. %he te#perature outdoor is 7ar 7ro# !eing uni7or#.
"hen you enter a grassy soccer 7ield a7ter Eogging in an
asphalt+paved residential neigh!orhood6 you #ay suddenly 7eel
li-e you are entering a re7rigerator. As you Eog inside this
soccer 7ield6 the te#perature continues to vary. oing over a
puddle o7 )ater in the #iddle o7 the 7ield #ay cool you do)n
or )ar# you up 7urther6 depending on the ti#e o7 the day.
No)6 i7 you are to record the te#perature o7 your
neigh!orhood6 )hich o7 the te#peratures )ill you record* "ill
you choose the one on the paved neigh!orhood side)al-6 or the
one at the edge o7 the soccer 7ield6 or the one a!ove the puddle
o7 )ater in the #iddle o7 the 7ield* "orse6 lands surrounding
)eather stations get developed6 and so#e o7 the# have !een
engul7ed in those heat island e77ect Ccities are )ar#er !ecause
o7 the heat island e77ectD6 sho)ing a )ar#ing record si#ply
!ecause their i##ediate vicinity get developed. .n the other
hand6 i7 the station&s surrounding vegetation changes6 either
!ecause o7 natural gro)th or #an+#ade degradation6 the
te#peratures recorded over ti#e )ill not !e a si#ple record o7
the te#peratures6 !ut a record o7 the change o7 the land
condition as )ell. @arred )ith this -ind o7 selection
di77iculties6 interpretation o7 our te#perature history has not
!een a straight7or)ard !usiness. ,ainsta-ingly and slo)ly6
ho)ever6 right #ethodology did e#erge6 and a slo) !ut
convergence o7 results a#ong the e'perts in the 7ield did
e#erge. In scienti7ic investigations6 it is al)ays a good thing
)hen results converge.
As a t)ist to the so+called glo!al )ar#ing trend that no)adays
do#inates the headlines6 7or a 7e) years during the 1;50s6 the
te#perature trend )as actually cooling. 1o#e people pu!licly
)orried a!out a ne) glacial period. A7ter all6 )e have !een
inside a )ar# interglacial period 7or 106000 years !y no)6 7ar
longer than any previous )ar# interglacial periods in recent
history Call previous interglacial periods !e7ore the current one
lasted 7or 8000 years or lessD. Is it ti#e 7or the return o7 the ice
age* %hen a 7e) years later in the 50s6 the )ar#ing trend
restarted again. "e )ill discuss #ore a!out this later in the
!oo-. >or a good account involving the history and di77iculties
in o!taining the data o7 the earth&s at#ospheric te#perature6 I
reco##end the )ritings o7 1pencer "eart6 a historian and a
physicist )ho also happens to !e an e'cellent )riter. A#ong
his )or-s6 the )e!page hosted !y the A#erican Institute o7
,hysics is o7 great value?
http?BB))).aip.orgBhistoryBcli#ateB20ctrend.ht#. It can !e read
online 7or 7ree.
B#siness and Politi$s
Added to the di77iculties in data analysis6 the situation in the
cli#ate de!ate is #ade )orse !y the politics and #oney
involved. @any people stand to lose or gain 7inancially
depending on the result o7 this de!ate and the pu!lic consensus
that e#erges. %he /ig .ils stand to lose !illions i7 their oil is
no longer in great de#and6 or i7 govern#ents a!ruptly stop
so#e o7 the i#plicit su!sidies. .r )orst6 i7 govern#ents start
to i#pose additional ta'es on the 7ossil 7uel industry6 the /ig
.ils )ill stand to lose even #ore. 1i#ilarly6 the struggling
rene)a!le energy sector )ill su77er i7 govern#ent incentives
are cut. /eing hu#ans6 people deploy tactics and strategies to
under#ine the opposite side&s case. @is+in7or#ation
ca#paigns sprang up li-e ne) leaves in the spring. .ne needs
to !e very care7ul in Eudging the 2data3 and conclusion
presented in so#e o7 the cli#ate )e!sites. Loo- 7or clues on
)ho is 7inancing the#. Loo- 7or clues on ho) they o!tained
their data.
Present $onsens#s in the s$ientii$ $omm#nity
A7ter decades o7 analysis6 aided !y #ore recent trends li-e the
general earlier arrival o7 spring in #any northern locations Cas
an e'a#ple6 /oston Aniversity scientist Richard ,ri#ac- and
his colleagues Eust 7ound recently that 7lo)ering plants in
Concord @assachusetts start 7lo)ering 10 days earlier on
average in spring co#pared )ith the ti#e )hen the 7a#ous
naturalist and author =enry 0avid %horeau lived in Concord
180 years ago6 !y co#paring current data )ith %horeau&s
hand)ritten notes ta-en !ac- thenD6 the signi7icant
disappearance o7 su##er sea ice in the Artic circle6 the
retracting o7 #any )ell -no)n glaciers at accelerated rates
co#pared )ith )hat they )ere a century ago6 that the scienti7ic
co##unity Cthose )ho have )or-ed on this area
pro7essionallyD has 7inally co#e to a consensus. And yes6
indeed6 our )orld is )ar#ing up. 0issenting opinions only
involve in )hether the )ar#ing is #an+#ade or natural6 not
the )ar#ing itsel7. Jven the 7or#er s-eptic Richard @uller o7
A.C. /er-eley is no) a convert. I7 you co#e across any
)e!site that clai#s other)ise6 please !e particularly care7ul
)hen e'a#ining its clai# and its 2data36 and )hether it is
supported !y the oil industry.
No) the 9uestion really is? 2Is it caused !y hu#an*3 Can )e6
and should )e do anything a!out it*
"s it h#man)$a#sed*
=istorically6 the earth )ar#ed up and cooled do)n
periodically on its o)n. %hroughout history6 cold glacial
periods and )ar#er interglacials Cco##only -no)n as the ice
agesD interleaved each other. Are )e arti7icially #a-ing the
earth )ar#er than it )ould other)ise !e6 or is it Eust part o7 the
natural cycles* .r i7 )e 7ind out that it is Eust part o7 a natural
cycle6 should )e still try to do so#ething a!out it* Are )e Eust
trying to 2correct3 7or so#ething that is not correcta!le6 in a
)ay si#ilar to ancient people trying to 2save3 the sun 7ro#
disappearing during a solar eclipse !y !anging on loud dru#s
to scare o77 the 2#onster3 that 2ate3 the sun*
In order to get so#e historical perspective6 let&s ta-e a loo- at
the cli#ate&s natural cycles.
Cha!ter + & The $limate,s nat#ral $y$les
%o deter#ine the earth&s cli#ate history is di77icult. %he
7urther )e go !ac- in ti#e6 the #ore di77icult it !eco#es. @ost
has to do )ith the availa!ility and interpretations o7 the data6
and the assu#ptions going into those interpretations. 0espite
all these uncertainties6 scientists )or-ing in this area have
co#e up )ith a picture that represents our !est -no)ledge o7
the earth&s history e'tending #ore than 2 !illion years into our
historical past o7 the :.8 !illion years o7 Jarth&s e'istence.
According to these researchers6 )e have had roughly 8 #aEor
ice ages in the past?
1.%he =uronian glaciation period that occurred a!out 2
!illion years ago )hen 7ree o'ygen started to appear in
the at#osphere6 pro!a!ly !ecause o7 the 7irst appearance
o7 plants that engaged in the process o7 photosynthesis.
2.%he Cryogenian Ice Age that occurred at a!out G00 to
L00 #illion years ago. 1o#e researchers speculate that
the earth #ight have !een entirely covered )ith sno) and
ice during this period o7 ti#e? %he sno)!all Jarth
hypothesis.
(.%he Andean+1aharan Ice Age that occurred around :(0
#illion years ago.
:.%he Karoo ice age that happened !et)een (L0 #illion to
(00 #illion years ago.
8.%he Puaternary Ice Age Cthe #ost recent ice age )hich
)e are still inD that started relatively recently at a!out 2.L
#illion years ago6 coincided )ith the 7or#ation o7 the
reenland ice sheet6 )hich has lasted up to the present
#o#ent.
%he )oolly #a##oths died out at a!out 10 thousand years
ago. @any people re7er to that as the end o7 the 2last ice age3.
%here are con7usions regarding the use o7 the ter# 2ice age3 in
literature and in people&s daily conversations. .77icially6 )e
are still in an ice age6 the Puaternary Ice Age to !e speci7ic.
%he o77icial use o7 the ter# 2ice age3 re7ers to a period o7 ti#e
)hen part o7 the earth is covered )ith per#anent ice sheet. At
the #o#ent6 )e have per#anent ice sheets covering the
continent o7 Antarctica6 reenland6 the North ,ole and part o7
the =i#alayas. And accordingly6 )e are still inside an ice age.
.utside o7 ice ages6 the earth has no signi7icant per#anent ice
sheet !uilt+up. You )ill have situations li-e a green Antarctica
Ci7 it has enough rain6 other)ise it )ill Eust !e a desert li-e Las
FegasD6 and the average te#perature is )ar#er than )e have
today.
I7 )e e'a#ine closely inside our o)n ice age6 )e 7ind periods
o7 large e'tended cold glaciation periods6 such as the one that
ended t)elve thousand years ago )ith the )oolly #a##oths6
as )ell as those interleaving )ar#er interglacials6 relatively
spea-ing6 such as the one that )e are currently in. %he nor#al
daily usage o7 2ice age3 tends to re7er to a cold glaciation
period )ithin the current ice age. 1o6 in regular conversations6
the last 2ice age3 happened !et)een 100 thousand to 12
thousand years ago6 ended )ith the e'tinction o7 the )oolly
#a##oths.
%he picture sho)n in >ig. ( !elo) Coriginall% prepared &% +ragons
flight fro$ pu&licl% a(aila&le data and is part of the 7lo&al 2ar$ing 6rt
pro=ect, adopted here through the 7>" free docu$entation licenseD
provides a su##ary o7 the earth&s representative te#peratures
in the past 800 #illion years6 )hich captures the three #ost
recent ice ages6 the Andean+1aharan6 the Karoo6 and the
Puaternary Ice Ages.
>ig. (
,lotted on the graph is a pro'y o7 the earth&s te#perature over
ti#e. %he pro'y is the concentration o7 an isotope o7 o'ygen6
the heavy o'ygen
1G
.6 in sa#ples o7 undersea sedi#ent. In
these sea 7loor sa#ples6 a lo)er
1G
. concentration indicates a
higher surrounding te#perature at the ti#e o7 the sedi#ent
7or#ation Cplease see Appendi' 1 7or a scienti7ic e'planationD.
>ro# the le7t o7 the graph6 )hich starts at 8:2 #illion years
ago6 the chart sho)s the three #ost recent ice ages Cnot
interglacials6 !ut real ice agesD indicated !y the three red
circles? the Andean+1aharan6 the Karoo6 and the Puaternary Ice
Ages. %here is a period at a!out 180 #illion years ago )hen
the te#perature )as relatively cool6 !ut it is not classi7ied as an
ice age6 pro!a!ly !ecause o7 locations o7 the continents
Ccontinental dri7tD that prevented the 7or#ation o7 per#anent
ice sheets on Jarth. Antarctica did not #ove to the 1outh ,ole
until so#e 200 #illion years ago6 as part o7 the supercontinent
ond)ana. "hen it 7inally did6 the land distri!ution )as
al#ost a continuous stretch 7ro# the 1outh ,ole all the )ay up
to the North ,ole. It could have !een the direct )ar# ocean
current 7ro# the e9uator that had prevented the per#anent
7or#ations o7 ice sheets on land. As such6 during that 2cool3
period6 the Antarctica at the 1outh ,ole )ould !e 7ree o7 ice6
so#ething very di77icult 7or a #odern hu#an to i#agine.
0uring the 7irst t)o ice ages6 )hich are outside o7 the graph in
>ig. (6 the earth is thought to have !een covered entirely !y
sno)6 7or#ing a so+called 2sno)!all Jarth3.
In a sense6 the glaciation o7 the earth&s sur7ace is a runa)ay
process. .nce a threshold o7 large enough area ice 7or#ation
occurs6 the earth plunges into a deep 7ree<e6 and can never get
out. %hat&s right6 once the earth !eco#es a sno)!all6 it can
never get out o7 the deep 7ree<e6 unless so#ething else
happens.
I#agine yoursel7 7lying on a trans+,aci7ic 7light Ci7 you have
never 7lo)n over the ,aci7ic6 you should try once6 !est done
!e7ore Eet 7uel rises to N1000 per -gOD No)6 loo- out o7 your
)indo) and loo- directly !elo) into the ,aci7ic .cean. "hat
do you see* It loo-s very dar-6 doesn&t it* Aside 7ro# so#e
)hite clouds here and there6 there is not #uch re7lection 7ro#
the )ater !elo). You can even see that 7ro# so#e aerial shots
o7 sail!oats. %he !ody o7 )ater !elo) your Eetliner a!sor!s
#ore than ;0H o7 the energy the sun shines onto it6 depending
on the angle o7 the sun&s position in the s-y. %he ocean !elo)
appears very dar- 7or a Eetliner. No) i#agine all these !odies
o7 )ater turn into ice and turn )hite. Not only does the !elly
o7 your Eetliner turn !righter6 the earth cools do)n a lot as )ell.
%his is not !ecause o7 the ice already there Csure the ocean
sur7ace )ould have to !e at or !elo) 7ree<ing 7or ice to 7or#6
!ut let&s co#pare )ater at 7ree<ing and ice at 7ree<ingD6 !ut
!ecause the ice re7lects sunlight !ac- into space una!sor!ed.
%he less the sunlight the earth a!sor!s6 the cooler the earth
!eco#es. As #ore parts o7 the earth&s oceans 7ree<e up6 #ore
sunlight )ill !e re7lected !ac- into space una!sor!ed. %he less
heat 7ro# the sun the earth a!sor!s6 and #ore ice )ill 7or#.
%his runa)ay process )on&t stop until the entire earth !eco#es
a giant sno)!all. %here7ore the earth plunges into a deep
7ree<e.
%he Russian cli#atologist @i-hail /udy-o )ho devised a
si#ple cli#ate #odel to si#ulate glo!al ice 7or#ation
discovered that once the earth !eco#es a sno)!all6 there is no
)ay to get it out o7 this condition. %he earth )ould stay 7ro<en
7orever6 even until the #odern dayO /ut then ho) do )e
account 7or the 7act that )e did get out o7 it* I7 )e have never
got into a deep 7ree<e6 ho) do )e e'plain the glacial re#nants
that )e are seeing today in tropical areas* 1o6 )e had to have
!een in a deep 7ree<e. /ut )e are not on a sno)!all Jarth right
no). =o) did )e get out o7 it* 1o6 there is a parado'.
%he parado' )as given a possi!le solution in 1;;2 )hen
4oseph Kirschvin- o7 Caltech discovered that slo)
accu#ulation o7 C.
2
Ccar!on dio'ideD in the at#osphere
caused !y volcanic activities could cause e'tre#e greenhouse
e77ect6 si#ilar to the situation on Fenus6 )hich could !ring the
at#ospheric te#perature to )ell a!ove the #elting point o7 ice.
.nce ice started to #elt6 revealing the dar- ocean underneath
)hich a!sor!ed sunlight !etter6 the earth started to a!sor! #ore
and #ore heat 7ro# the sun and the reverse runa)ay process
-ic-ed in6 and the earth )as -ic-ed out o7 its co#pletely 7ro<en
state. %he parado' is there7ore resolved.
.nce )e )ere out o7 the deep 7ree<e6 the earth )ent through
this periodic ice age6 )hich up to this day6 still has no clear cut
e'planations6 despite the #any hypotheses that e'ist to 7or# a
patched )or- theory CJarth&s or!it variation6 etc6etcD.
The modern !eriod & The i$e age that we are in
As 7urther in history )e go6 the less accurate it !eco#es. At
the sa#e ti#e6 its si#ilarity )ith the #odern earth6 thus its
use7ulness to us6 is less. %he continents )ere at di77erent
locations !ac- then? Antarctica did not #ove to its position on
the 1outh ,ole until 200 #illion years agoQ the oceanic currents
)ere di77erent + as part o7 the 1upercontinent ond)ana6
Antarctica )as lin-ed to other land #asses all the )ay up to the
North ,ole6 allo)ing ocean currents to traverse 7ro# north to
south directly6 !ut prevented a circu#+polar oceanic current&s
7or#ation li-e )hat )e have todayQ the at#ospheric #a-e+up
)as di77erentQ li7e 7or#s )ere di77erentI "orst o7 all6 the
evidences that )e can put our hands on are 7ar less direct and
less relia!le.
1o6 )e )ill not 7ocus too #uch on the distant past. Rather6 )e
)ill only use those historical aspects as a prelude to our real
discussion. "e )ill 7ocus on the last 7e) #illion years6 )ell
)ithin the current ice age6 )hen the conditions )ere #ore
si#ilar to those )e have on earth today.
In >ig. : !elo)6 the graph Cagain prepared &% +ragons flight fro$
pu&licl% a(aila&le data and is part of the 7lo&al 2ar$ing 6rt pro=ect,
adopted here with the 7>" free docu$entation licenseD s-etches out the
changes in te#perature Cthe pro'yD in the last 8 #illion years.
>ig. :
%his graph is o!tained !ased on the result presented !y Lisiec-i
and Ray#o in a paper titled 26 9liocene-9leistocene stack of
4? glo&all% distri&uted &enthic +1@) records3
C,ALJ.CJAN.RA,=Y F.L. 206 ,A100(6 2008D. A
si#ilar plot can !e o!tained !y using data co#piled !y 4an
Fie<er o7 the Aniversity o7 .tta)a6 )hich )e )ill sho) later in
the !oo-.
%he onset o7 the current ice age occurred at a!out 2.8 #illion
years ago6 at the !eginning o7 the ,leistocene geological epoch6
and started the 7or#ation o7 the per#anent reenland ice+
sheet. %he Puaternary Ice Age started gradually6 )ith the
glaciation periods !eco#ing #ore and #ore e'tre#e. 0uring
#ore e'tre#e periods6 glaciers e'tended as 7ar south as /oston
and Ne) Yor-. In Jurope6 the glaciers e'tended do)n to
southern >rance6 northern 1pain6 and so#e @editerranean
#ountains C=ughes6 "ood)ard6 i!!ard6 9rogress in 9h%sical
7eograph% Aul% 2< (ol' 3 no' 3 334-3<4D.
Inside an ice age6 there are periods o7 glaciations )hen glaciers
e'tend south)ard and cover large areas o7 lands6 and periods o7
relatively )ar# interglacials )hen the glaciers are in retreat.
A7ter the onset o7 the current ice age6 clear and larger
7luctuations in te#perature !et)een the glacial and inter+
glacial periods can !e seen in >ig. : a!ove. %he last glacial
period that occurred !et)een 110 thousand and 12 thousand
years ago is the last dip at the right edge o7 the graph6 )hich
)as one o7 the #ore e'tre#e ones6 co#pared )ith the other
glacial periods that ca#e !e7ore it.
(hat $an the !ermanent i$e sheets tell #s abo#t o#r !ast*
1ince the current Antarctica ice sheet started to 7or# so#e 8
#illion years ago C!y so#e account 20 #illion years ago6 )ay
!e7ore )hat o77icially recogni<ed as the current ice ageD6 it has
never once disappeared. Year !y year6 sno)6 though very little
averaging only G ## per year in so#e part6 7ell on Antarctica6
and year !y year6 in7or#ation o7 the at#osphere )as trapped
and e#!edded )ith the sno)6 7or#ing layers and layers o7
records 7or us to uncover. As ne) sno) 7alls6 old sno) gets
!uried deeper and deeper. At so#e point6 )hen the sno) that
7ell long ti#e ago got !uried so deep that it )as co#pressed
into ice !ecause o7 the )eight a!ove it6 it per#anently trapped
the gas 7ro# the at#osphere that had !een up to that point
7reely going in and out o7 the sno)6 and loc-ed the gas up
inside the ice sa#ple. %he ice sheet o7 Antarctica there7ore
provides us )ith the #ost co#plete at#ospheric record o7 the
earth&s recent past. 1i#ilarly6 the reenland ice sheet provides
us )ith a record o7 that in the northern he#isphere. /y drilling
into these ice sheets6 )e can uncover the variation o7 the past
te#perature C!y the ice&s isotope ratios6 7or e'a#pleD6
at#ospheric co#positions6 its e#!edded green house gases
concentration li-e #ethane6 and etc. >ro# these ice sheets6 )e
can see the patterns o7 past )ar#s and past colds. It is there7ore
not surprising to see that those records o7 glaciations and inter+
glacial periods e#!edded in the entrap#ents in the ice colu#ns
did sho) up )hen )e drilled into the Antarctica ice sheet6 ((00
#eters CR106000 7eet6 roughly 1B( o7 a #odern Eetliner&s
cruising altitudeD deep into the ice.
The story o the -#ssian .ostok
.n >e!ruary 106 20126 Fladi#ir ,utin6 the sitting Russian
,ri#e @inister at the ti#e6 )ho )as going to !e elected 7or the
third ti#e into the Russian presidency a7ter a constitutional
change allo)ing hi# to do that6 received a sa#ple o7 )ater
7ro# Russian scientists stationed at a Russian 1tation on
Antarctica.
%he )ater )as ta-en 7ro# a la-e !uried t)o #iles underneath
an Antarctica ice sheet. It )as hailed as the #ost pristine )ater
on Jarth ever o!tained !ecause La-e Fosto-6 the la-e )here
the )ater ca#e 7ro#6 had !een in co#plete isolation 7ro# the
rest o7 the earth 7or 8 #illion years in co#plete dar-ness at the
!otto# o7 the glo!e under t)o #iles o7 ice. I7 ,utin dran- the
)ater6 he could s)allo) #icro+organis#s that no one on Jarth
has ever seen !e7ore6 not since the sealing o77 o7 La-e Fosto-
7e) #illion years ago.
%he Fosto- 1tation )as a 1oviet station esta!lished in 1;85.
A7ter the disintegration o7 the 1oviet Anion in 1;;16 Russia
inherited the station and has !een operating it since then up to
the present day. "ith an average 4anuary Cthe )ar#est #onthD
te#perature o7 #erely $(2
o
C C$2L
o
>D6 the Fosto- 1tation is
one o7 the coldest places on Jarth. %he lo)est te#perature it
has ever recorded is $G;
o
C6 #easured one day in 4uly o7 1;G(.
Nor#ally6 7ro# @arch to .cto!er6 the daily average hovers
!et)een $85
o
C to $LG
o
C6 )ith August the coldest #onth o7 the
year. Any use7ul )or- such as drilling that scientists )ant to do
outdoor has to !e done !e7ore @arch. Any ti#e a7ter that6 it is
si#ply too cold.
Bocation of Bake Costok on the :ontinent of 6ntarctica
>ig. 8
%he discovery o7 a li9uid la-e t)o #iles underneath the ice
sla! too- a long ti#e. 1onic echoes )ith li9uid )ater
signatures )ere initially pic-ed up in the 1;50&s6 !ut its
con7ir#ation )as not to co#e until the 1;;0&s6 !y then the
1oviet Anion had already disintegrated. Researchers had !een
care7ul not to drill into this la-e !e7ore they could !e con7ident
that no conta#inations a!ove the la-e )ould !e introduced into
the la-e !y the drilling itsel7. %his under+the+ice+la-e is o7
great interest to scientists !ecause it rese#!les so#e o7 the
alien )orlds they conte#plated. It has !een theori<ed that
under the 7ro<en sur7ace o7 4upiter&s #oon Juropa6 there #ay
e'ist so#e under+the+ice+la-es si#ilar to Fosto-. I7 li7e 7or#s
can e'ist in co#plete dar-ness inside La-e Fosto- 7or 8
#illion years6 its ecosyste# )ill tell us a lot a!out )hat )e
#ay e'pect in so#e e'traterrestrial )orlds. %hat is one reason
)hy e77orts had to !e #ade to prevent uncontrolled
conta#inations 7ro# entering this pristine )ater.
In 1;;G6 the drilling head stopped Eust 100 #eters short o7
puncturing through the ice into the li9uid )ater. /ut the
!rea-through )as not going to co#e 7or another decade.
It )as only t)elve years later6 in the Nove#!er o7 20106 that an
environ#entally accepta!le proposal to drill through the ice
)as accepted and drilling !egan i##ediately. =o)ever6 in
4anuary 25 o7 20116 //C Ne)s reported that the Russian tea#
)as running out o7 ti#e !ecause the te#perature )as
decreasing rapidly and the tea# had to leave !e7ore >e! L
)hen it )ould still !e )ar# enough 7or a plane to land and
ta-e o77.
It )as reported that a7ter the drill passed through the (L00+
#eter line6 the tea# encountered 7ro<en la-e )ater instead o7
co#pacti7ied sno). %he 7ro<en )ater so#eti#es 7or#ed
#ono+crystals o7 ice that #easured a #eter across. %ry to
i#agine a single crystal #easuring ( 7t ' ( 7t ' (7t in si<eO It
)ill pro!a!ly )orth a lot o7 #oney as huge single crystals are
9uite rare. 0on&t con7use that )ith an ice cu!e that you can get
7ro# your re7rigerator. An ice cu!e is a poly+crystal. A regular
ice !loc- is also a poly+crystal. Not only are !ig #ono+crystals
very rare6 they are also very hard to !rea- !ecause there is no
7ault lines. /ecause o7 the hardness o7 the high 9uality ice6 the
drill !it could only advance at a snail pace o7 1.L #eters a day.
>inally6 according to a C/1 Ne)s report on >e! 5 o7 20116 the
Russian tea# had to stop6 Eust 2; #eters short o7 reaching the
li9uid )ater !elo). %o so#e6 that )as a relie7 instead o7 a pity
!ecause i7 the Russian scientists )ere a!le to !rea- through the
ice and leave it open unattended6 the hole )ould 7ree<e up
again and outside #aterials )ould have !een introduced6
unattended6 into the pristine )ater underneath )hen they )ould
return the 7ollo)ing year.
Return they did. In the )ar#est #onth o7 the year in the
7ollo)ing year6 in the 4anuary o7 20126 the Russian scientists
7inally !ro-e through into the la-e6 7inishing o77 )hat they le7t
o77 the previous year6 presenting ,utin )ith a sa#ple o7 the
la-e )ater. CAccording to so#e ne)s report6 it )as actually not
the li9uid la-e )ater that )as presented6 !ut the !otto# section
o7 the ice core that had !een e'tracted and #elted6 )hich is
essentially the 7irst layer o7 the 7ro<en la-e )ater. Asing
super#ar-et Eargon6 it should have !een la!eled 2previous
7ro<en36 and not la!eled 27resh3.D
The .ostok data
=o)ever6 )e are not interested in the la-e itsel7. >or us6 7or
the topic o7 glo!al )ar#ing6 the ice core a!ove the la-e is #ore
interesting. "ith (6(00 #eters in depth Cor roughly 106000 7tD
these ice sa#ples provide a continuous record o7 the earth&s
cli#ate history o7 the past 8006000 years. %hese data are so
valua!le that )e should all !e grate7ul that the scienti7ic
co##unities involved #ade the# availa!le to the pu!lic
)orld)ide. 1o#e data )ere shared )ith and #ade availa!le !y
N.AA online at
http?BB))).ncdc.noaa.govBpaleoBicecoreBantarcticaBvosto-Bvost
o-.ht#l
Asing the data provided !y N.AA6 let&s chart the historical
Antarctica ice core te#perature Cthis is not the direct
te#perature o7 the ice6 !ut the calculated te#perature o7 the
precipitations at the ti#e o7 deposit 7ro# so#e isotope ratioD as
a pro'y o7 the earth te#perature?
>ig. L
%his chart covers the period 7ro# :806000 years ago to the
present ti#e. %his corresponds to the e'panded vie) o7 the
right one 7i7th o7 the 28 #illion year graph3 sho)n in >ig. :. I7
the te#perature records in the Fosto- ice core sa#ples are
good representations o7 the earth&s glo!al te#peratures6 then a
so#e)hat )orriso#e picture e#erged? In the past :006000
years or so6 #ost o7 the ti#e the earth )as in cold glacial
periods. Appro'i#ately every 1006000 years or so6 the earth
got out o7 a deep 7ree<e and entered a !rie7 )ar# interglacial
period o7 duration o7 a!out 86000 years or less6 !e7ore plunging
!ac- into the ne't cold glacial period again. %he current )ar#
interglacial period6 up to this point6 is !y 7ar the longest in the
last 7our interglacial periods. Also very clearly sho)n is that
the last glacial period lasted 7ro# 100 thousand years ago to
a!out 12 thousand years ago6 )ith average te#perature L
o
C
!elo) today&s te#perature. %he red line is the at#ospheric
car!on dio'ide concentration trapped )ith the ice. "e )ill
address the car!on dio'ide issue slightly later.
Data rom the O$ean Drilling Pro/e$t
%he ice core sa#ple 7ro# one location in the 1outh ,ole #ay
not have provided a 7ull picture o7 the entire earth. %o
generali<e a conclusion o!tained 7ro# data 7ro# one location
to the entire earth re9uires other evidences. >or that6 )e turn to
the ocean 7loors in di77erent parts o7 the )orld. %he data )e
loo- 7or co#e in the 7or# o7 sea 7loor sedi#ents. %han-s to 4an
Fie<er o7 the Aniversity o7 .tta)a6 data!ase o7 this type is also
#ade 7reely availa!le online. /ased on Fie<er&s co#pilation6
the te#perature o7 the last 0.8 #illion years out o7 the L0
#illion years data o!tained 7ro# the sea 7loor !enthic
sedi#ent6 is plotted together )ith the Fosto- result 7or
co#parison?
>ig. 5
%he ne) data are plotted in green color and it is the curve that
e'tends all the )ay to the le7t in the graph. No dou!t the sea
7loor data are o7 lo)er resolution? they #ove up and do)n a lot
#ore. =o)ever6 as a co#parison6 the t)o te#perature curves
trac- each other rather )ell. Considering the di77erence in their
origins6 one 7ro# the ice core in the 1outh ,ole6 and the other
7ro# so#e .0, sites C.cean 0rilling ,roEectD on sea 7loor
locations all around the )orld Cso#e near the e9uator6 and
so#e in the north Atlantic6 7or e'a#pleD6 )e there7ore need to
conclude that the data are telling us so#ething real.
Convergence a#ong di77erent data sets is al)ays a good thing
in scienti7ic investigations.
.ne thing )e have not #entioned up to this point is the car!on
dio'ide concentration in the at#osphere that )as trapped )ith
the ice core. In the graph a!ove6 it is represented !y the red
curve and its values are to !e read re7erring to the vertical scale
on the le7t6 in parts per #illion. %he variations o7 the
concentration o7 car!on dio'ide trapped inside the ice core
strongly correlate )ith that o7 the te#perature. "hen the
at#ospheric te#perature at sno) deposition6 deter#ined 7ro#
isotope ratios )as higher6 car!on dio'ide level )as higher.
"hen te#perature )as lo)er6 the car!on dio'ide level )as
lo)er as )ell. %hat is )hat is #eant !y strong correlation.
%here are 7e) places )here the te#perature see#s to drop 7irst6
and then 7ollo)ed !y the car!on dio'ide concentration.
=o)ever6 !ecause o7 the !ig ti#e scale involved6 the resolution
o7 the data is not enough to provide a resolution !etter than a
7e) hundred years. "e can only conclude that the
concentration o7 car!on dio'ide trac-ed the trend in
te#perature variation very )ell6 though )e are not sure i7 the
te#perature caused the car!on dio'ide to change or the rise o7
car!on dio'ide concentrate caused the te#perature to change6
or i7 they )ere !oth responding to a third co##on cause.
1o6 that )as the history o7 the earth te#perature 7or the last
:806000 years.
>our hundred and 7i7ty thousand years is not a short period o7
ti#e. =o)ever6 )e can do even !etter. "e have the sea7loor
sedi#ents data that go !ac- as 7ar as L8 #illion years. "hy
don&t )e ta-e a loo- at that* 1ince )e have achieved
consistency !et)een the Fosto- data and the sea 7loor data
)here they overlap6 )e should !e con7ident in the correctness
o7 the sea+7loor data as )ell as the ice core data. 1tatistically
spea-ing6 i7 you as- 7or direction 7ro# t)o independent
strangers6 and !oth o7 the# tell you the sa#e thing6 it is #ore
li-ely they are !oth giving you the right direction. It is very
unli-ely that !oth )ill tell you the sa#e )rong ans)ers
!ecause there is only one right ans)er6 !ut #any )rong
ans)ers. >or t)o people to !e )rong in the sa#e )ay is very
unli-ely. "rong ans)ers tend to !e inconsistent. /ecause o7
consistency6 !oth the Fosto- ice core data and the sea 7loor
data #ust !e telling us so#ething real.
E0tending the 1iew to 23 million years ago
"ith this ne) 7ound con7idence6 let&s !roaden our vie).
>ig. G
In this grander scale in >ig. G6 the :806000+year Fosto- data
only appear as a very narro) patch o7 !lue located at the
e'tre#e right edge o7 the graph. Yes6 that little !lue patch is
:806000 years on a graph that spans L8 #illion years.
%e#perature )as #uch )ar#er 20 #illion years ago? 10
o
C
)ar#er than the present. %hat )as also a period )hen
Antarctica )as 7ree o7 ice. %hat )as )hen La-e Fosto- )as
still 7ully connected to the at#osphere6 ice+7ree6 )ith li9uid
)ater rippling on the la-e sur7ace6 pro!a!ly including those
)ater #olecules in the glass that ,utin received. It )as a )orld
outside o7 an ice age. "hat a di77erent )orld that )asO %o top
this o776 at L0 #illion years ago6 the )orld )as even )ar#er6
20
o
C )ar#er. No)6 that is )hat )e call putting things into
perspective? .ur present ti#e cli#ate condition is in no )ay
e'tre#e? it can get #uch #uch colder6 and it can get #uch
#uch )ar#er. "hichever )ay it goes6 )e )ill sure 7eel
e'tre#ely unco#7orta!le. "e are at a luc-y s)eet spot
!ecause )e have evolved to 7eel co#7orta!le in this current
environ#ent and !reathing the #odern day air.
.ne thing is clear? In the past6 Jarth&s te#perature )ent up and
do)n on its o)n )ithout hu#an intervention. 1o the natural
9uestion to as- is? I7 the current trend o7 )ar#ing is real6 is it
attri!uta!le to hu#an activities such as the !urning o7 7ossil
7uels6 or is it Eust a naturally occurring trend despite hu#an
activities* And i7 so6 )hat are the i#plications o7 our near
7uture6 near in geological ter#s* Are )e really )ar#ing up in
the last t)o centuries a7ter )e started using 7ossil 7uels* "e
)ill ta-e a loo- at that. /ut !e7ore that6 let&s ta-e a loo- at
so#e o7 our neigh!ors in the solar syste# and see ho) they are
doing.
Cha!ter 4 ) Carbon dio0ide and the
atmos!heri$ tem!erat#re
Car!on dio'ide has !een #ade 7a#ous !y its greenhouse
e77ect6 as #ost pro#inently displayed on the planet Fenus. .n
Fenus6 ;L.(H o7 its at#osphere is car!on dio'ide6 and the rest
is #ostly nitrogen. A planet si#ilar in si<e to our Jarth6 )ith
si#ilar sur7ace gravity as our Jarth6 Fenus possesses a #uch
denser at#osphere co#pared )ith that o7 the earth6 )ith
at#ospheric pressure at the sur7ace #easuring al#ost one
hundred ti#es as great. Fenus& at#osphere is 7ive ti#es as
thic- as ours. .n Jarth6 our space shuttles 7le) in or!its o7 280
#iles a!ove ground !e7ore they retired and that )as considered
2outer+space3. At that altitude6 the air is so thin that it is
considered vacuu#. In 7act6 L0 #iles a!ove the earth sur7ace is
o77icially de7ined as the edge o7 outer space. %he S+price only
re9uires contestants to reach this altitude CL2.8 #iles or 100-#
to !e preciseD to 9uali7y as having entered outer space.
=o)ever6 on Fenus6 280 #iles a!ove the ground is still pretty
#uch inside its at#osphere. %here is enough Fenus 2air3 to li7t
an airplane at that altitude. Its thic- car!on dio'ide at#osphere
turns Fenus into a pressure coo-er6 reaching al#ost 800
o
C on
its sur7ace6 all !y its 7a#ous greenhouse e77ect. In 7act6 the
at#osphere is so opa9ue C!ecause o7 clouds #ade o7 sulphuric
acidD that no visi!le light 7ro# the sur7ace can !e seen in space.
0espite the thic- clouds6 )hich should have a cooling e77ect
!ecause this is )hat clouds do on Jarth6 the greenhouse gases
still #anage to pressure coo- the planet.
/ecause Fenus is so si#ilar to Jarth6 people so#eti#es li-e to
co#pare Jarth and Fenus side !y side6 and co#pare the e77ect
o7 their respective at#ospheres on their o)n environ#ent.
=o)ever6 let&s also !ring in another !rother o7 the earth6 @ars.
@ars is s#aller than Jarth6 and its gravitation pull is not strong
enough to -eep too #uch o7 its at#osphere. Its at#osphere is
thin + only a!out 1H as thic- as the earth&s + !ut it is also 7illed
)ith greenhouse gas C.
2
CR;8HD.
Fenus6 Jarth6 and @ars 7or# a very interesting se9uence o7
planets 7or us to investigate !ecause the e77ects o7 !oth
co#positions and at#ospheric thic-ness are so#ething )e
)ant to study.
Dieren$es between three naked !lanets
.ne thing that is o7 great help in our study is that )e can easily
calculate the te#perature o7 a na-ed planet $ one that is
stripped o77 o7 its at#osphere $ and co#pare the calculated
value )ith the real li7e #easure#ent. And )e can see )hat an
at#osphere can do to a planet&s sur7ace te#perature.
At a distance o7 180 !illion #eters 7ro# the sun6 a !are Jarth&s
sur7ace receives 1.(2-" o7 po)er on every s9uared #eter
Croughly 10 s9uared 7eetD o7 its sur7ace 7acing directly Cat right
angleD at the sun. .n the other hand6 at a shorter distance o7
only 10G !illion #eters 7ro# the sun6 a !are Fenus receives up
to 2.81-" o7 solar po)er per every s9uared #eter Csun light
intensity 7ollo)s an inverse s9uare la)D. @ars6 !eing 7arthest
o7 the three 7ro# the sun at 2(; !illion #eters a)ay6 only
receives 0.822-" per s9uared #eter on its sur7ace pointing
nor#ally at the sun. >ro# this in7or#ation6 )e can calculate
ho) hot the planets sur7ace can get i7 )e don&t allo) ourselves
to !e !ogged do)n !y the details o7 a planet&s sur7ace 7eature.
I7 )e allo) ourselves to !e !ogged do)n !y the details6 then
)e are never going to get a !asic understanding. >or e'a#ple6
i7 )e loo- at the 7ull glory o7 our Jarth&s 7orests6 oceans6
tundra6 ice caps6 the color o7 @artian soil and its dust stor#s6
and )hether the sur7ace o7 a planets is s#ooth li-e a #irror or
rougher li-e sand paper Coh6 sand paper is s#ooth on a
planetary scaleOD6 and getting ourselves con7used6 that is )hat
)e #ean !y !ogged do)n !y details. I7 )e do that )e )ill
never !e a!le to get to the !otto# o7 this !ecause )e )ill !e
co#pletely e'hausted !y the ti#e )e are done.
No6 )e re7use to !e !ogged do)n !y the details. "e are only
going to loo- at so#e conceptually si#ple and relevant
calculations. "e are going to consider the )orst scenario 7or
planets )ithout an at#osphere. "e )ill consider the si#ple
case )hen )e paint all three planets !lac-. %hat #eans )e )ill
assu#e that they a!sor! all the sunlight that 7alls on the# so
that they )ill !e hotter than they )ould actually !e i7 they )ere
si#ply stripped o77 o7 their at#ospheres. /y loo-ing at the
#oon6 )e -no) ho) unreal this assu#ption is. %he #oon is so
!right in the night s-y6 si#ply !y re7lecting lot o7 sunlight o77
its sur7ace. %he #oon in 7act appears )hite. /ut doesn&t #atter6
this !lac- planet assu#ption helps us si#pli7y our discussion6
so that )e can co#pare apple to apple6 !lac- planet to !lac-
planet. %he only thing is that )e need to re#ind ourselves that
the sur7ace te#peratures )e calculated 7ro# this !lac- planet
assu#ption )ill !e higher than )hat a !are planet )ould !e
C!lac- o!Eects are hotter under the sunD.
Puestion? I7 all three planets )ere all painted !lac-6 )hat
)ould their sur7ace te#peratures !e*
%o ans)er this 9uestion6 )e only need to -no) that the planets
cannot si#ply a!sor! all the sunlight energy )ithout giving out
anything in return !ecause i7 they don&t6 they )ill eventually
heat up6 and -eep heating up until they vapori<e. It is Eust that
in this physical universe6 physics dictates that )hen an o!Eect
heats up6 it )ill radiate heat out Csee !elo)D. At so#e point6 it
)ill !e giving out as #uch heat as it receives 7ro# sunlight to
#aintain e9uili!riu#. 1ince the planets are all surrounded !y
vacuu#6 there is no other )ay 7or the# to give out any energy
e'cept !y ther#al radiation. %his is the so+called !lac-!ody
radiation6 )hich is only another ter# o7 saying radiating heat.
>or Fenus6 )hen it a!sor!s sunlight6 it receives it 7ro# one
direction and one direction only $ the direction o7 the sun. .n
the other hand6 )hen it radiates heat6 it radiates in all directions
!ecause the entire planet has heated up Clet&s assu#e that the
planets are spinning 7ast enough that their !right sides and their
dar- sides are at roughly the sa#e te#perature so that the day+
night te#perature di77erence does not hinder our calculationD.
%he area that is e'posed to the sun is the cross+sectional area
Cthe si<e o7 Fenus& shado)D6 !ut the area that is radiating heat
is the entire sur7ace o7 the planet6 )hich is : ti#es the si<e o7
its shado). %here7ore6 it only needs to radiate K as #uch as it
receives 7ro# the sun per s9uared #eter to #aintain
e9uili!riu#6 )hich is 2.81B: T 0.L2G-" per s9uared #eter.
According to 1te7an$/olt<#ann la) in physics6 an o!Eect that
radiates this a#ount o7 heat per s9uared #eter is at a
te#perature o7 (2:
o
K or 81
o
CB12:
o
>. CNote? 1te7an$/olt<#ann
la) states that an o!Eect&s irradiance is e9ual to s%
:
6 )here s is
the 1te7an constant and % is the o!Eect&s sur7ace te#perature in
o
K6 the a!solute te#perature.D
>or Jarth6 the a#ount o7 heat that it has to radiate out per unit
area is also K o7 )hat it receives 7ro# the sun6 i.e.6 1.(2B: T
0.((-"6 and its sur7ace te#perature6 according to 1te7an+
/olt<#ann la)6 should !e at 25L
o
K6 )hich is a!out (
o
CB(G
o
>.
1i#ilarly6 i7 one goes through the sa#e calculation 7or @ars6
its sur7ace te#perature should !e at +8:
o
CB+LL
o
>.
1o6 to su##ari<e6 i7 )e assu#e all three planets )ere !are
Cstripped o77 o7 their at#ospheresD and a!sor! all the sunlight
that 7alls on the# C)ere painted !lac-6 re7lect no light !ac- into
spaceD6 then their sur7ace te#peratures should !e as 7ollo)s?
Fenus? 81
o
C6
Jarth? (
o
C6
@ars? +8:
o
C.
/ut in reality6 )ith their at#ospheres6 even though they are not
painted !lac-6 the planets sur7ace te#peratures are #easured to
!e?
Fenus? :L0
o
C6
Jarth? 1:
o
C6
@ars? +L(
o
C.
Loo- at Fenus. /ecause o7 the C.
2
7illed thic- at#osphere6
Fenus is a!out :00
o
CB500
o
> hotter than it )ould have !een i7 it
)ere #erely painted !lac- and )ith no at#osphere. A :00
o
C
di77erence is ho) #uch the at#osphere has done to Fenus. .n
Jarth6 the at#osphere6 )hich is 7ull o7 nitrogen6 o'ygen6 )ater
vapor C)ater vapor is a very potent green house gasD and so#e
C.
2
6 #a-es it 11
o
CB 20
o
> )ar#er than it )ould have !een i7
the earth re7lected no light !ac- to space and )ere stripped o77
o7 its at#osphere. And 7inally6 @artian&s thin air at#osphere6
!eing less than a #ile thic-6 though 7illed )ith C.
2
6 is still too
thin to trap #uch heat co#pared )ith !lac- @ars. In reality6
@ars is ;
o
CB15
o
> CslightlyD cooler than a !are !lac- @ars. %he
thin @artian at#osphere )ith a re7lective sur7ace is not as
po)er7ul as a si#ple !lac- sur7ace in a!sor!ing sunlight.
1o6 that is ho) #uch the at#osphere can do to a planet&s
sur7ace te#perature6 especially i7 the at#osphere is thic-O %his
is the 7a#ous greenhouse e77ect.
At a higher level6 )e intuitively -no) that a !lan-et that lets
sunlight co#e in !ut prevents heat 7ro# leaving )ill eventually
increase the te#perature underneath the !lan-et. And that is
e'actly )hat an at#osphere does6 and that is e'actly )hat the
greenhouse gases in an at#osphere do.
1o6 )e can i#agine i7 )e si#ply add #ore air to our Jarth6
#a-ing its at#osphere thic-er6 or si#ply turn so#e o7 the
o'ygen into car!on dio'ide !y !urning up #ore organic stu77
such as 7ossil 7uels and trees $ there7ore turning #ore non+
greenhouse gas into greenhouse gas6 #a-ing the at#osphere
2optically thic-er3 $ )e can #a-e our Jarth sur7ace )ar#er.
%he result is called glo!al )ar#ing. Anyone )ho argues
against this line o7 reasoning is !eing !ogged do)n and gets
con7used !y the details. Anyone )ho thin-s !ecause the
cli#ate #odels are too co#plicated that )e should not trust
)hat they are predicting is !eing con7used !y details.
>ro# si#ple physics6 )e already -no) #ore C.
2
in the
at#osphere )ill #a-e the at#osphere optically thic-6 and
there7ore causes glo!al )ar#ing. It is as si#ple as -no)ing
that printing #oney )ill eventually lead to in7lation. It is as
si#ple as -no)ing adding a layer o7 ther#al !lan-et )ill -eep
you )ar#er. %his part should not !e too controversial. %he
controversial part is )hen the earth heats up6 it )ill also cause
#ore C.
2
in the ground to !e released into the at#osphere.
%his interaction #a-es the deter#ination o7 )hich one is the
cause and )hich one is the e77ect historically di77icult.
(hat is leading what*
Indeed6 i7 )e loo- at >ig. L6 the car!on dio'ide concentration
see#s to !e in loc-ed+steps )ith the te#perature curve6 !ut
)hich one is leading the other is not precisely clear Cdepending
on )hich section you are loo-ing atD. I7 )e ta-e a detailed loo-
at an e'panded vie) o7 the #ost recent 806000 years o7 the
graph6 as sho)n in >ig. ; !elo)6 the correlation !et)een the
at#ospheric car!on dio'ide and the te#perature is even #ore
o!vious?
>ig. ;
It is !asically the sa#e graph as the one sho)n in >ig. L6 !ut
Eust <oo#ing in on the #ost recent 806000 years. %he car!on
dio'ide curve Cs#ooth red curve6 s#ooth !ecause it has 7e)er
data pointsD sho)s the concentration o7 car!on dio'ide in the
at#osphere at di77erent ti#e in history )hen the gas )as 7ro<en
in place and trapped )ith the Fosto- ice core sa#ple. It trac-s
the te#perature curve e'tre#ely )ell up to 158 years ago6
)hen the ice core data stop. "hen )e started to #easure C.
2
data )ith instru#ent6 )e 7ound it Eust too- o776 rising up to
(50pp# in 2010 C)ay o77 the chartOD.
1ince the Fosto- ice core records do not provide data 7or the
last t)o centuries !ecause its annual sno)7all is lo) + the
7reshly laid sno) during the last t)o centuries has yet to
!eco#e co#pacti7ied enough to trap air Cthere7ore the isotopes
that tell us the te#perature and the C.
2
that tells us the C.
2
concentrationD #a-ing the application o7 sa#e #ethodology
di77icult 7or this section o7 ice li-e the rest o7 the ice core + )e
have to rely on other #ethods 7or the #ost recent t)o
centuries. >ortunately6 )e already invented our ther#o#eter
and have !een ta-ing te#peratures. 1o6 )e have instru#ental
records. In addition6 sno)7all has !een #uch heavier at the
Australian La) 0o#e station 500 #iles to the north Cstill on
AntarcticaD. Ice cores 7ro# the La) 0o#e station there7ore can
co#ple#ent the data 7ro# the Fosto- station. >urther#ore6
high+resolution tree ring data 7or the last 1000 years is also
availa!le. "e there7ore have a relatively co#plete record o7
our planet&s recent past.
%he recent cli#ate history
>ig. 10 !elo) is a co#posite chart o7 the earth te#perature6
adopted 7ro# "i-i Co##ons through the NA 7ree
docu#entation license6 o!tained !y co#!ining data 7ro# #any
sources6 including ice cores6 tree rings6 direct #easure#ents o7
the at#ospheric te#perature !y ther#o#eters and sea 7loor
sa#ples?
>ig. 10
A detailed description o7 the sources o7 each individual curve
in the chart is provided in Appendi' 2. Interested readers can
go !ac- and 7urther e'plore the details o7 the original
investigations. Note that this graph has !een la!eled !y so#e
opponents o7 the cli#ate change theory as the ne) hoc-ey stic-
graph6 in re7erence to the 7irst version o7 the graph adopted !y
the International ,anel on Cli#ate Change in its 2001 cli#ate
assess#ent report6 )hich )as su!se9uently revised to sho)
#ore data variation. Interested readers are advised to do a "e!
search 7or the phrase 2hoc-ey stic- controversy3.
.ver the past #illenniu#6 the earth&s #ean te#perature has
7luctuated inside a !and o7 0.G
o
C. %he short !lac- curve on the
7ar right hand side o7 the graph is the direct ther#o#eter
#easure#ents o7 the earth&s at#ospheric te#perature a7ter the
ther#o#eter )as invented. It overlaps )ith ice cores and tree
ring data6 and covers the region )here ice core data are not
availa!le or are not relia!le. Co#pared )ith the so+called
2little ice age3 occurred !et)een 1L00 and 1500 in Jurope6 the
earth&s te#perature has shot up !y a 7ull degree in 200:.
Recent study done !y cli#ate s-eptics Richard @uller o7
Aniversity o7 Cali7ornia at /er-eley also sho)s a si#ilar trend.
In 20116 @uller e#!ar-ed on a proEect to really study all the
availa!le te#perature data 7ro# 158( Cthe 1Lth Century6 100
years 7urther !ac- than the I,CC&s dataD to 2000. =e got
7unding 7ro# )ealthy cli#ate s-eptics such as Charles Koch6
he also got 7unding 7ro# other sources such as the ates
>oundation. At the end o7 the study6 he had to ad#it that6 in
vie) o7 the evidence6 the earth is indeed )ar#ing up. %he data
his tea# used is no) pu!licly availa!le on his proEect )e!site
http?BB!er-eleyearth.org. =is goal no) is to encourage a
#eaning7ul conversation !ased on data. Puite an honora!le
goal. /ecause o7 his o)n investigation6 @uller is no) a
convert.
Note that a #ere 1
o
C di77erence is )hat distinguishes the little
ice age )hen the %ha#es in the Anited Kingdo# 7ro<e in
)inter 7ro# a 2nor#al3 cli#ate )hen the %ha#es does not.
.ne )ay to thin- a!out the signi7icance o7 this 1
o
C di77erence
is that i7 there is one #onth in the su##er in one particular
year in )hich the te#perature is 12
o
C C21
o
>D lo)er than the
sa#e #onth in the previous year6 this sho)s up as 1
o
C lo)er in
the annual average te#perature i7 all other #onths are the sa#e
as !e7ore. Instead o7 a 28
o
C C55
o
>D su##er #onth6 you have a
1(
o
C C8L
o
>D #onth. %hat is the di77erence !et)een )earing
shorts and )earing a thic- Eac-et. .r going in the opposite
direction6 instead o7 having a 28
o
C su##er #onth6 you have a
(5
o
C C;L
o
>D #onth. %he di77erence )ill certainly !e noticed.
1o6 1
o
C di77erence in the annual average te#perature is a !ig
deal.
%o provide a co#parison6 let&s plot the at#ospheric car!on
dio'ide concentration 7or the last one thousand years6 !ased on
the results o!tained 7ro# the ice cores 7ro# the Australian La)
0o#e 1tation in Jast Antarctica6 )ith data provided !y .a-
Ridge National La! Cavaila!le at
http?BBcdiac.ornl.govBtrendsBco2Bla)do#e+data.ht#lD?
>ig. 11
"e )ill have #ore to say a!out the car!on dio'ide levels later.
%he ice core data stop at the Year 1;:G !ecause even at the
Australian site6 7resher sno) is still too porous to trap
at#ospheric car!on dio'ide. %he last data point is a 7ill+in )ith
the direct at#ospheric #easure#ent o7 (50pp# in the Year
20106 7or sho)ing o7 the trend.
1o 7ar6 our #ethodology has !een to start at a grand level Chal7
a !illion year grandD6 and gradually <oo# into the #ore #odern
era. "e have loo-ed at data at the scale o7 800 #illion years.
"e have loo-ed at data at the scale o7 L8 #illion years6 8
#illion6 800 thousand6 80 thousand and one thousand years.
%his )ay6 )e )on&t lose sight o7 our history at the !ig scale6
and at the sa#e ti#e6 )e can closely e'a#ine our recent
history )ith a #agni7ying glass. Let&s 7ollo) this #ethodology
and ta-e a closer loo- at )hat has happened in the last t)o
hundred years since our #odern civili<ation too- o77.
,lotted !elo) in >ig. 12 is the te#peratures directly #easured
!y the ther#o#eter )e invented. %)o sets o7 data are !eing
used 7or co#parison? one 7ro# NA1A o7 the Anited 1tates6 and
the other 7ro# the Cli#ate Research Anit o7 the Aniversity o7
Jast Anglia in the AK.
>ig. 12
1ho)n !elo) is the sa#e graph6 )ith data truncated in 1;G0.
>ig. 12a
Ap until the year 1;G06 !y Eust loo-ing at this chart alone6 no
one can conclusively sho) that the earth is really )ar#ing up.
>ro# 1;:0 to 1;G06 the te#perature trend is actually cooling.
Yes6 the te#perature has risen !y 0.:
o
C since 1GG06 !ut i7 the
cooling trend 7ro# 1;:0 to 1;G0 continued6 it could very )ell
!e Eust part o7 the nor#al 7luctuation going up and do)n
throughout history. In 7act6 !ac- then6 so#e people6 particularly
so#e in the #edia6 )orried a!out the !eginning o7 a ne) ice
age. As it turned out6 the te#porary cooling )as due to the
!urning o7 dirty 7ossil 7uels that conta#inated the at#osphere
)ith tiny particulates. %he particulates helped reduce sunlight
reaching the ground. .nce people cleaned up their acts !ecause
o7 tighter environ#ental regulations6 )hen the nu#!er o7
particulates in air !egan to drop6 the earth got !ac- on trac-
)ith its )ar#ing. %he at#osphere is a co#plicated syste#6 and
particulates #atter6 at least te#porarily.
"hat is causing the recent )ar#ing*
I thin- at this point6 the 9uestion o7 )hether the earth is
)ar#ing up or not is pretty #uch a 7orgone conclusion. Jven
cli#ate s-eptic li-e Richard @uller o7 AC /er-eley is no) a
convert. As 7ar as scienti7ic evidence is concerned6 glo!al
)ar#ing is a conclusion that the #aEority o7 researchers
)or-ing in the 7ield agree upon. %he real 9uestion is? )hat is
causing it*
.ne o!vious suspect is the consu#ption o7 7ossil 7uel. /elo)
in >ig. 1(6 )e sho) a graph o7 7ossil 7uel consu#ption starting
7ro# Year 1581 to Year 20006 using data provided !y .a-
Ridge National La!oratory
Chttp?BBcdiac.ornl.govB7tpBndp0(0BC1F+>ILJ1BD
>ig. 1(
Annual !urning o7 7ossil 7uels rises 7ro# al#ost <ero in 1580 to
seven !illion #etric tons per year in 2000. All the car!on
dio'ide )e added to the at#osphere is still in the at#osphere6
#inus so#e that has !een dissolved in the ocean. 1ince C.
2
has a long li7eti#e in air6 the e77ect o7 !urning 7ossil 7uels can
!e directly seen in the increase in the at#ospheric car!on
dio'ide concentration6 )hich )e already sho)ed in >ig. ;
a!ove. %he at#ospheric car!on dio'ide concentration had !een
#aintaining at a very constant level 7or the last 106000 years
!e7ore the use 7ossil 7uels6 !ut it suddenly too- o77 around 1;00
)hen )e started to !urn 7ossil 7uel in large 9uantities. In the
last century and a hal76 )e du#ped al#ost hal7 o7 all the 7ossil
car!on reserves )e have in the earth6 )hich nature too- eons to
synthesi<e6 into the at#osphere.
No)6 let us co#!ine the at#ospheric car!on dio'ide
concentration and annual car!on e#ission )ith >ig. 106 and
plot everything on the sa#e graph so that )e can see the
correlations6 as sho)n in >ig 1: !elo)?
>ig 1:
Let&s digest this e'tre#ely in7or#ation rich graph a little !it.
"hat are !eing plotted on the sa#e graph are three things? 1D
change o7 the )orld&s te#perature in the past 1000 years6 2D the
at#ospheric car!on dio'ide concentration6 and (D the use o7
7ossil 7uel in the last 1000 years. .ne thing that is clear 7ro#
the graph is that up until the #iddle o7 the 15th century6 )ithin
the uncertainty o7 the availa!le data6 everything )as not
varying #uch. And then starting at the #iddle o7 1;006
everything started to rise.
%he relationship !et)een car!on consu#ption and the earth&s
)ar#ing is i##ediately clear. %he rise in te#perature closely
7ollo)s the e#ission o7 car!on dio'ide into the at#osphere. In
7act6 i#agine yoursel7 !eing a cra<y scientist !ac- in the 1G00.
I7 you ca#e to the possession o7 the earth&s te#perature and
car!on dio'ide histories as graphs sho)n in >ig. 1: and >ig.
106 !ut only up to the Year 1G006 and i7 you )ere !eing
con7used !y )hether it )as the car!on dio'ide causing the
te#perature to change or it )as the other )ay around6 )hat
)ould you have done to 7ind out* 1ince you could not change
the earth te#perature !y controlling the sun6 !ut you could
change the car!on dio'ide concentration !y !urning up a lot o7
petroleu#6 the logical )ay to 7ind out i7 car!on dio'ide could
really cause the earth to )ar# up )as to !urn as #uch 7ossil
7uels as you could 7ind in the ground and did it 7or an e'tended
period o7 ti#e and see )hat happened a7ter)ard. "ell6 #y dear
cra<y scientist6 you don&t have to do that. 1o#e people even
cra<ier than you are have done that 7or you already. %hey have
released the huge a#ount o7 car!on dio'ide you )anted to
release into the at#osphere !y !urning up 7ossil 7uels since the
1G00s6 and the result is in. %his cra<ier so#eone is collectively
-no)n as the 2hu#an+-ind36 and your e'peri#ent has !een
success7ully per7or#ed and the conclusion is yes6 car!on
dio'ide can cause the earth&s te#perature to rise6 and it did.
"hat the hu#an -ind has done is e'actly )hat a scientist
)ould have done to 7ind out scienti7ically i7 car!on dio'ide
could cause glo!al te#perature to rise6 and the result is really
conclusive. It does not #ean that i7 you can increase the
earth&s sur7ace te#perature !y increasing the sun&s output6
at#ospheric car!on dio'ide )ill not increase. It #ay. In 7act6
there are good reasons to !elieve that it )ill. =istorically it
did. =istorically6 the at#ospheric C.
2
level did co+vary )ith
at#ospheric te#perature )ithout hu#an&s du#ping any car!on
dio'ide. .ne possi!le reason can !e that at higher te#perature6
li#estone Ccontaining calciu# car!onateD )ill turn #ore into
9uic- li#e Ccalciu# o'ideD6 releasing car!on dio'ide into the
at#osphere in the process. .n the other hand6 at lo)er
te#perature6 9uic- li#e can a!sor! #ore car!on dio'ide in the
air and turn itsel7 !ac- into li#estone. It is all a #atter o7
)here the che#ical e9uili!riu# is. Changing the earth
te#perature )ill shi7t this e9uili!riu#6 and there7ore change
the at#ospheric co#position.
At this point in our civili<ation6 our po)er to 2roc- the !oat3
should not !e underesti#ated. A7ter the attac- occurred on
1epte#!er 11 o7 2001 on the Anited 1tates and the su!se9uent
horri7ic collapses o7 the t)o "orld %rade Center to)ers in
Ne) Yor- City6 co##ercial 7lights )ere co#pletely !anned on
the A1 #ainland6 and i##ediately )eather stations on the
ground inside the Anited 1tates registered an increase in
sur7ace te#perature. "e no) reali<e that it )as the clouds
created !y passenger Eetliners6 or rather6 the lac- o7 the#6 that
)as responsi!le 7or the te#perature change. In a nor#al day
over the Anited 1tates6 thousands o7 Eetliners are crisscrossing
the s-y6 leaving lines o7 straight )hite clouds !loc-ing so#e
sunlight 7ro# reaching the ground6 creating a cooling e77ect.
%he hu#an species has gro)n so technological advanced that
)e are no) having a #aEor i#pact on our environ#ent. Not
only are )e driving so#e ani#als to e'tinction !y destroying
their ha!itats6 )e are also contri!uting to that !y direct over
hunting and over 7ishing. .ur actions are no longer
inconse9uential. And )ith great po)er6 co#es great
responsi!ility. C0oesn&t it sound li-e a 7a#iliar line in a
#ovie*D
(hy are !eo!le talking abo#t $arbon dio0ide while water
1a!or is a m#$h more !otent greenho#se gas*
"ater vapor is over)hel#ingly responsi!le 7or greenhouse
e77ect on Jarth. 1o#e 50H o7 the greenhouse e77ect on the
entire earth&s at#osphere co#es 7ro# )ater vapor. .ne )ould
thin- that cli#ate scientists )ould spend #ore ti#e studying
and tal-ing a!out )ater vapor than tal-ing a!out car!on
dio'ide. /ut )hy aren&t they* "ell6 they are tal-ing a!out it6
!ut they also -no) that )ater vapor is a secondary e77ect.
%he earth&s at#osphere is an e'tre#ely co#plicated syste#
and )ater is an e'tre#ely interesting co#ponent in this
co#ple' syste#. It is the only species in the co#position o7
the at#osphere that goes through all three phases o7 #atter
under nor#al condition? solid ice6 li9uid )ater6 and )ater
vapor gas. No other co#ponents o7 the at#osphere even
change phase in their e'istence in the te#perature range that
)e encounter on Jarth&s sur7ace. All other co#ponents stay as
gases all the ti#e. /ut )ater6 the su!stance that gives li7e to
every living thing on Jarth6 is in constant change as it carries
out a series o7 7unctions depending on )here it is and )hat its
environ#ent allo)s it to do. In vapor 7or#6 )ater is a strong
in7rared a!sor!er6 #uch #ore so than C.
2
6 #a-ing it one o7 the
#ost potent greenhouse gases on Jarth. It !loc-s heat
Cin7raredD !ut let visi!le light to pass through unhindered.
"hen )ater vapor is near the land sur7ace6 it 7or#s a ther#al
!lan-et covering the land so that )hen the land is e'posed to
visi!le sunlight and heats up6 the escaping heat is trapped !y
the )ater vapor at the sur7ace. 1ince )ater vapor also !loc-s
in7rared portion o7 the spectru# o7 the inco#ing sunlight6
)ater vapor rich air near the sur7ace is hot6 and the sur7ace
)ind !eco#es 2stea#y36 hu#id and hot. =o)ever6 i7 the )ater
vapor is at a higher altitude6 the high altitude region can !e
9uite )ar#6 !ut the sur7ace te#perature could re#ain 9uite
cool !ecause the high altitude )ater vapor !loc-s o77 so#e
inco#ing heat radiation6 i.e.6 the in7rared.
Anli-e C.
2
6 )ater vapor&s concentration in the at#osphere is
not constant. Not even close. Not even te#porary. In 7act6 it
varies a lot6 7ro# ti#e to ti#e6 and 7ro# place to place. Anli-e
C.
2
6 )hich is al)ays at a!out (50pp# Cparts per #illionD
recently every)here outdoor6 or 250 pp# !e7ore the #odern
hu#an du#ped the e'tra 100 pp# into the air in the last t)o
centuries6 )ater vapor concentration in the at#osphere can
vary 7ro#6 in ter#s o7 relative hu#idity6 10H in a desert to
100H in a tropical rain 7orest )hen it is a!out to rain. At 100H
relative hu#idity at roo# te#perature6 )ater vapor level is at
a!out 226000 pp#. Co#pare that )ith (50pp# 7or C.
2
6 it is
de7initely o7 a di77erent league. Jven as dry as 10H relative
hu#idity Ca level )hen your s-in starts to dry up + in 7act too
dry that you need #oisturi<erD6 )ater vapor concentration is
still at the )hooping 26000 pp# level6 7ive ti#es as #uch as
C.
2
.
.ne reason that )ater vapor density can vary so #uch is
!ecause )e have the ocean as an in7inite source o7 )ater vapor.
Adding to that so#e inland seas6 inland la-es6 rivers6 #arshes6
ponds6 and all these regions o7 li9uid )aters are al)ays adding
)ater vapor into the local air. I7 everything is static6 then air is
going to !e 7illed )ith )ater vapor to its capacity6 i.e. 100H
hu#idity. /ut nothing is static. %he earth is rotating6 the sun
rises and the sun sets. "ind does !lo) and te#perature does
change 9uic-ly. Instead o7 7illing air every)here to its
capacity6 )ater vapor so#eti#es over7ills and it precipitates
out as rain or clouds6 and it so#eti#es under7ills and the air is
drier than it could !e. "ith everything constantly changing6
and )ith the at#osphere al)ays on the #ove6 )ater vapor
density in the at#osphere is al)ays changing. And )e cannot
possi!ly add #ore )ater vapor into the at#osphere then the
oceans and the la-es already are adding. %hat&s )hy our
action&s direct e77ect on at#ospheric )ater vapor concentration
is negligi!le. You can have every stea# engine !lo)ing stea#
into the air6 and the result is still not #uch di77erent !ecause
despite our po)er6 )e still cannot co#pete )ith the ocean.
1ince )ater vapor concentration in the at#osphere is al)ays
changing6 it does not sel7+regulate. Its a#ount in the
at#osphere is regulated !y so#ething else6 and it is this
so#ething else that is i#portant. I7 )e cause this so#ething
else in the at#osphere to cause the at#osphere to 2naturally3
hold #ore )ater as a secondary e77ect6 then our action )ill no
longer !e negligi!le.
In 7act6 there are a lot o7 2so#ething else3 that can a77ect local
hu#idity levels. %he land condition such as )hether it is a
7orest or a desert is one. %he average local air te#perature is
another. %hen there is the local )ind condition6 the car!on
dio'ide concentration6 the e'istence o7 a )ater7all6 to Eust na#e
a 7e). I7 )e add C.
2
into the at#osphere and i7 )e cause the
air to )ar# up Eust !y 0.2
o
C6 this s#all increase in te#perature
can cause #ore )ater vapor Con averageD to evaporate into the
air and stay there. 1ince )ar#er air can hold #ore )ater vapor6
#ore )ater vapor )ill !e stored in the air !e7ore it has to
precipitate out as )ater droplets. "ith #ore )ater vapor in the
air6 the air )ill a!sor! #ore in7rared CheatD and !eco#es even
)ar#er than it )ould have !een i7 it had not contained this
e'tra #oisture. 1o6 )ater vapor #a-es it )orse6 not as a
pri#ary cause6 !ut as a secondary cause. At so#e point6 a ne)
e9uili!riu# )ill !e esta!lished. And the original 0.2
o
C
increase due to car!on dio'ide can easily !eco#e a 2
o
C
increase !ecause o7 )ater vapor.
5ow abo#t $lo#d ormations*
=o)ever6 there is one #ore co#plication in this si#ple picture?
the 7or#ation o7 clouds. "hen there is too #uch )ater vapor in
one region o7 the at#osphere6 it precipitates out as )ater
droplets and !eco#es cloud. %his is the )ater cycle that )e all
learned a!out in school. Anli-e )ater vapor6 clouds are groups
o7 tiny li9uid )ater droplets that re7lect sunlight and cause
cooling instead o7 )ar#ing during the day6 !ut trap sur7ace
heat at night. .verall6 clouds cool the earth #ore during the
day than they )ar# it during the night. "hen clouds
accu#ulate and i7 they e'perience cooler te#perature at higher
altitude6 the si<e o7 the )ater droplets 9uic-ly gro) and their
)eight soon !eco#e so#ething the air cannot support and rain
results. 1o#eti#es cli#ate change s-eptics argue that since
clouds cool the earth6 )ar#er air Eust #a-es #ore clouds and
the earth cools do)n. %hey argue that since our co#puter
#odels are not 7ine enough to include cloud 7or#ation6 our
cli#ate #odels are necessarily )rong. And those )ho are
)arning a!out cli#ate change are necessarily crying )ol7.
Let&s ta-e a deeper loo- at the cloud pro!le#. A cloud is a
collection o7 #isty )ater droplets in #id air. %hese tiny
droplets are so light that the )ind carrying the# has a lot #ore
e77ect on the# than the earth&s gravity6 and that is )hy they can
stay a7loat. /ut their staying a7loat is !y no #eans an
e9uili!riu# condition. At !est6 you should thin- o7 clouds as
so#ething that are on their )ay to !eco#e vapor again or
so#ething that )ill 7all do)n as rains.
Clouds )ill not 7or# under uni7or# te#perature. I7 you have
uni7or# te#perature every)here6 even i7 you have 100H
hu#idity6 you still )ill not have clouds. All you have is very
hu#id air. Clouds re9uire te#perature di77erentials !et)een
adEacent te#perature <ones to 7or#. "hen a patch o7 cold air
enters a region o7 )ar# hu#id air6 it is )hen )ater droplets
start to 7or#. It is li-e putting a cold !eer !ottle in so#e )ar#
air and you )ill soon see )ater droplets dripping do)n 7ro#
the sur7ace o7 the !eer !ottle. J'cept that there is no real !eer
!ottle6 Eust a patch o7 cool air. .nce 7or#ed6 the tiny )ater
droplets in #id air )ill !e carried a)ay !y )ind and that is
)hat the clouds are. 1o6 the 7or#ation o7 clouds relies on the
e'istence o7 te#perature di77erentials. In order to 7or# #ore
clouds6 )e need #ore regions o7 di77erent te#peratures.
=o)ever6 there is no evidence to suggest that as the air )ar#s
up glo!ally6 the nu#!er o7 regional )eather <ones )ill
increase. Yes6 )e need to incorporate realistic cloud #odels
into our cli#ate #odels to #a-e the# !etter instead o7 Eust
using #easured values together )ith so#e si#ple assu#ptions
CI a# not saying that all cli#ate #odels are using si#ple
assu#ptions6 so#e o7 the# could !e very sophisticated in
treating cloudsD. /ut i7 you are hoping to use clouds as the
at#ospheric te#perature regulator to counter !alance the e77ect
o7 increased car!on dio'ide concentration6 it is Eust )ish7ul
thin-ing. You #ay have a !etter chance using sulphur dio'ide
7or sun !loc-ing than hoping 7or clouds. In 7act6 the chance o7
getting it the other )ay around is Eust as great. "e #ight see a
reduction in cloud i7 the earth is )ar#er !ecause )ar#er air
can hold )ater !etter !e7ore so#e o7 it is !eing 7orced out as
#isty )ater droplets. And a reduction o7 cloud )ill #a-e
)ar#ing even )orse.
1o6 even though )ater vapor is a #ore potent greenhouse gas6
its a#ount in the at#osphere is deter#ined !y so#ething other
than itsel76 and car!on dio'ide is one 7actor that )ill deter#ine
the #oisture level. "ater vapor there7ore6 acts only as a
secondary a#pli7ier.
Cha!ter 6 & "s global warming good or bad*
A lot o7 people )ho have dou!t a!out glo!al )ar#ing are not
really dou!ting the )ar#ing itsel7. "hat they have dou!t a!out
is )hat glo!al )ar#ing )ill do. 1o 7ar6 )hat )e have heard are
rising sea levels6 )ar#er te#peratures6 and #ore stor#s. /ut
these are hardly scary pheno#ena. @any people say6 so )hat*
"e )ill adEust to these ne) conditions6 so#e )ill reason.
Problems with s$ary s$enarios & rising sea le1els
I7 glo!al sea level does rise !y t)o 7eet in the ne't century6
so#eone #ay as-6 so )hat* @ichael /loo#!erg Eust said on
the radio6 23f %ou care a&out the en(iron$ent, $% suggestion is
do not tie it to glo&al war$ing' .ecause no&od% cares or
&elie(es what is going to happen 4 %ears fro$ now'3
"hen sea levels rise6 so#e places that are dry no) )ill !e in
shallo) )ater and !eco#e uninha!ita!le6 !ut so#e places that
are 7arther a)ay 7ro# the !eaches )ill !eco#e the sought+a7ter
!each7ront properties6 !ecause the )aterline )ill #ove inland a
little !it. "hile it lasts6 these ne) !each 7ront properties )ill
)orth a lot #ore #oney than they are )orth no). /ut the
i#portant thing is6 people can gradually #igrate. %here is ti#e
to respond. "e #ight even !uild #any #ore Fenices. Another
i#portant thing is6 7or #ost people6 the rising sea level does not
even #ean anything !ecause they are not any)here near the
sea. .7 course6 so#e island nations can !e 9uite desperate.
Nic- ,erry o7 Associated ,ress reported in @arch o7 2012 that
the leaders o7 Kiri!ati6 an island nation in central ,aci7ic
.cean6 are considering an unusual !ac-up plan $ #oving the
populace to >iEi $ !y !uying up L6000 acres o7 land on >iEi&s
#ain island. Kiri!ati has a!out 10( thousand people. %hat is a
lot o7 people )hose lives )ill !e a77ected. /ut they can #ove6
and they )ill i7 necessary. And to put the nu#!er o7 people
a77ected into perspective6 1.( #illion people in China )ere
displaced !ecause o7 the construction o7 the %hree+orges
0a#. %)o hundred 7i7ty thousand people perished in the 1;5L
%ang 1han earth9ua-e in China. @ore than 220 thousand
people&s lives )ere ta-en a)ay )hen tsuna#i hit Indonesia in
200:. oing up in scale6 )e have G00 thousand deaths during
the R)anda 1;;: genocide6 )e have 18 #illion people -illed
during "orld "ar I. And to top that all6 L0 #illion died
!ecause o7 "orld "ar II. At a #ore ordinary level6 :0
thousand annual tra77ic deaths6 15 #illion people die o7 heart
attac- annually )orld)ide. 0espite all these 2!ig3 events6
nor#al or a!nor#al6 ordinary or e'traordinary6 the )orld goes
on. As-ing so#eone living in Ne) Yor- at the ti#e o7 "orld
"ar II6 he )ould pro!a!ly say even "orld "ar II )as not too
scary as it )as Eust so#ething that ended the A1 Jcono#ic
0epression. CNo )onder so#e people )ould not even have a
second thought a!out starting a )arOD 1o6 to si<e the rising sea
level against all these events6 ho) does it #easure up* %o
#any cli#ate s-eptics6 not #uch. /ecause people can #ove.
Problems with s$ary s$enarios & more re7#ent storms
=o) a!out #ore 7re9uent stor#s* "ith over seven !illion
population on Jarth6 ho) #any get a77ected !y stor#s every
year* A 7e) do<ens6 #ay!e* .7 course6 I a# 2e'aggerating36
!ut the nu#!er is s#all6 even including people )ho are
a77ected !y tropical cyclones yearly in /angladesh and those
!y typhoons in the ,hilippines6 %ai)an6 and other 1outheast
Asian regions. %hat #eans6 #any are not a77ected. In 7act6 the
over)hel#ing #aEority are not a77ected. Jven i7 you thro) out
nu#!ers li-e a 80H increase in stor#s6 people still cannot put
it into perspective. Yes6 #ay!e the nu#!er o7 tornadoes )ill
increase6 the nu#!er o7 typhoons )ill increase6 the nu#!er o7
Atlantic hurricanes )ill increase6 !ut these are Eust statistical
concepts. In so#e year6 the nu#!er #ay increase. In so#e
year6 the nu#!er #ay actually decrease. /ut on average6 there
)ill !e #ore. /ut people are especially !ad at visuali<ing
statistics6 e'actly !ecause o7 its 7luctuating nature and the lac-
o7 certainty. "hen you say 2#ore 7re9uent stor#s36 @ar-
%)ain says6 2%here are lies6 da#ned lies6 and statistics.3 "hen
you put 2#ore 7re9uent stor#s3 against a 2"orld "ar II3 li-e
event6 )hich one )ill !e #ore threatening to an average
A#erican* No )onder #any A#ericans perceive 2#ore
7re9uent stor#s3 as a non+event Cuntil your ho#e get hit !y
one6 !ut then the education process )ill only proceed slo)ly6
one at a ti#eD. In contrast6 #ore than ;0H o7 4apanese are
concerned a!out lo!al "ar#ing and its e77ects6 according to
the allup ,oll study cited at the !eginning o7 the !oo-.
,erhaps it is !ecause o7 the #ore 7re9uent natural disasters
such as earth9ua-es and %suna#is that #a-e the 4apanese
people #ore alert*
Problems with s$ary s$enarios & rising global tem!erat#re
I7 #ore 7re9uent stor#s can !e perceived as a non+event6 the
rise o7 glo!al te#perature )ill hardly register a !lip. 1o#e
people actually argue that it is a good thing. %hey reason that
plants )ill gro) 7aster in a )ar#er Jarth and the gro)ing
season can !e longer. >or a rise o7 2
o
C C:
o
>D6 even to #any
people )ho are already living in hot areas li-e %e'as6 it )ill !e
#ostly perceived in ter#s o7 their air conditioner settings Cthe
intended readers o7 this !oo- are those )ho live in the #ore
developed areas such as those in North A#erica. I7 you are
living in a third )orld country and happen to !e reading this
!oo-6 and i7 you e'clai# 2a !unch o7 spoiledO3 I understand
)hat you #ean6 and I a# one o7 the spoiled ones.D .n the other
hand6 people )ho are living in colder regions #ay actually
)elco#e the )ar#ing6 thin-ing that )inters )ill !e less harsh.
%hey can have longer 7ood gro)ing seasons and !etter su##er
ti#es. I7 this is the case6 does it sounds scary at all*
None o7 these conse9uences sound scary. Not at allO 1o6 )hat
are the environ#entalists alar#ing a!out*
5arm#l to whom*
Jven i7 glo!al )ar#ing is !ad6 !y )hatever standard you #ay
)ant to use to co#e to this conclusion6 there )ill still !e people
)ho )ill !ene7it 7ro# it. 4ust li-e in all other changes6 there
)ill !e losers6 !ut there )ill al)ays !e so#e )inners.
1o#eti#es6 )hat #a-es this value Eudg#ent 9uestion even
#ore di77icult is that so#eti#es so#ething that !ene7its an
organi<ation as a )hole #ay actually !e har#7ul to all its
#e#!ers. %a-e 7or e'a#ple6 a struggling pro7essional sport C
tea#. I7 the C tea# replaces all its players )ith players 7ro# an
A tea#6 instantly the C tea# is playing at the level o7 an A
tea#. In this sense6 it is good 7or the tea#6 right* =o)ever6 7or
those original players in the C tea# )ho are no) out o7 )or-6
this change can hardly !e good at all. It is good 7or the 2tea#36
!ut !ad 7or the #e#!ers. .n the other hand6 so#ething that is
!ad 7or the tea# could actually !e good 7or its #e#!ers6 even
Eust te#porarily. A cult organi<ation co#es to #ind. 1o6 is
glo!al )ar#ing good or !ad* Is preventing glo!al )ar#ing
!ene7icial or har#7ul* %o )ho#* %o the society or to the
individuals* %o the individuals living no) or to the individuals
living 80 years 7ro# no) Co!viously a di77erent groupD*
'rad#al $hanges are ine, we $an ada!t, they say
A lot o7 cli#ate change s-eptics !elieve even i7 there are long
ter# cli#ate changes6 )e )ill still !e 7ine as long as the
changes ta-e place in geological ti#e scales. %hey argue that as
long as the change is gradual6 ne) generations )ill gro) up in
their o)n ne) environ#ents and )ill adapt to the#. Jven
though the ne) environ#ents #ay or #ay not rese#!le the
environ#ent that their ancestors gro) up in6 the ne)
generations can deal )ith the#. 4ust li-e the current generation
)ho does not re#e#!er the ti#e )hen the @editerranean 1ea
)as once dry6 the ne) generation )ill not re#e#!er )hat it is
li-e in the 21st Century )hen the Arctic sea is still 7ull o7 ice in
the su##ers and polar !ears still roa#. %heir 7uture
environ#ent )ill !e di77erent 7ro# )hat )e have today6 !ut
they )ill adapt to it. 1o6 )hy )orry*
Or is there always something new to the res$#e*
"hat a!out ne) technologies6 as >ree#an 0yson argues*
1o#e cli#ate change s-eptics !elieve that 7uture technologies
)ill solve all our present pro!le#s6 even though they #ay
create their o)n pro!le#s in even #ore distant 7uture. /ut that
is not our concern at this #o#ent. A7ter all6 it has only ta-en us
8000 years to develop 7ro# 7ighting ani#als )ith !are hands
and drin-ing ra) !lood Cthough )e are still eating ra) 7ish as
in #y !eloved sushiD to !uilding space stations. Another 8000
years )ill pro!a!ly ta-e us to a level that no!ody can i#agine
today and cli#ate change )ill !eco#e so trivial long !e7ore
that.
A 7avorite e'a#ple o7ten cited )as the a#ount o7 horse #anure
that )as proEected to !e deposited on city streets 7e) decades
a7ter the turn o7 the 1;th Century into the 20th Century. 1ince
horse )as the 2engine3 that #oved city tra77ic at the ti#e6 as
the engines pulled carts on the streets6 they le7t !ehind a trail o7
disgusting so7t #aterials. It )as proEected in 1G;G that !y 1;(06
the a#ount o7 horse #anure )ould reach the third 7loor
)indo)s in Ne) Yor- City6 and !y 1;806 London streets
)ould !e nine 7eet under. /ut then une'pectedly6 7ro# a totally
di77erent direction6 the internal co#!ustion engine ca#e along.
%hough not 9uite designed speci7ically to tac-le the horse
#anure pro!le#6 nonetheless6 it co#pletely resolved the
#anure pro!le#. @ay!e so#e yet un-no)n 7uture technology
)ill co#e along6 and renders glo!al )ar#ing a non+issue. 1o6
)e really have nothing to )orry a!out at the #o#ent. I )ill
have #ore to say a!out this type o7 thin-ing later in the !oo-.
O#r en1ironments are already 1ery di1erse
@any cli#ate change s-eptics also point out that people are
already living in a diverse range o7 environ#ents. ,eople live
and thrive in hot places li-e Las Fegas and India. ,eople live
and thrive in cold places li-e @osco)6 =elsin-i6 and Alas-a.
,eople live in high plateau li-e %i!et and Nepal )here air is
thin. ,eople live in hu#id places li-e 1ingapore and the islands
o7 ,olynesian )here hu#idity and te#perature can #a-e your
s-in stic-y. Jven though so#e places are 9uite e'tre#e6 people
do live in these places. %hroughout the )orld6 you can 7ind
people living in every -ind o7 cli#ate condition. I7 the earth is
to 1L."LY change 7ro# one set o7 cli#ate conditions to
another6 people&s pre7erences )ill change and people )ill
adapt6 or they )ill #ove. %here has to !e so#e place that you
)ill li-e on Jarth. 1o long as the change is gradual6 the
ecosyste# )ill adapt. 1o )ill the hu#an civili<ations.
1o6 )hat is )rong )ith this picture*
Indeed6 there is nothing )rong )ith this picture i7 changes do
co#e slo)ly. =o)ever6 that #ay not !e the case though. %he
overall te#perature #ay change gradually6 !ut regional
changes can co#e suddenly6 and they are li-ely to !e sudden?
%he tipping point theoryO
%br#!t lo$al $limate $hanges
I7 the )orld&s precipitation pattern suddenly changes in a
#atter o7 Eust a 7e) short years in the !ac-drop o7 a gradually
rising average glo!al te#perature6 )hat )ill that do to our
Jarth* Not #uch. Really6 not #uch. %he earth )ould -eep
rotating around its o)n a'is6 and it )ould -eep evolving
around the sun. /ut )hat )ill that do to us the hu#ans* Ah6
that is a di77erent story.
Consider the 7ollo)ing scenarios? ,laces )here there have !een
no rain7alls are no) 7looded )ith )ater Chappened !e7ore6 in
the dry southern Cali7ornia6 resulting in #ud slides6 houses
going do)n )ith itD6 !ut places )here 7ar#lands are6 )here
)ater has !een plenti7ul 7or 7ood gro)th6 are no) !one dry.
1o#e places you have property da#ages due to 7loods. In other
places6 7ar#lands su77er prolonged drought and yield no crops.
%he i##ediate i#pact )ill !e 7ood shortages6 the rise in 7ood
prices and social unrests. "orld)ide 7ood shortage is not Eust
an a!stract concept designed to scare you. It happened !e7ore.
In April 200G6 hungry =aitians protested the rising cost o7
7ood6 and it turned into a 7ood riot that re9uired the Anited
Nations peace-eepers 7iring ru!!er !ullets into the cro)d.
.7ten in poor nations6 the e'pense on 7ood is a #aEor portion o7
a 7a#ily&s inco#e. A slight increase in 7ood price can #ean
#any people going hungry. In early 200G6 it )as Eust the rising
oil price due to )orld)ide 0, gro)th6 together )ith the
diversion o7 7ar#lands into producing rene)a!le energy crops
in so#e part o7 the )orld6 co#!ined )ith co##odity traders&
speculations that drove up 7ood prices around the )orld6 chaos
resulted. It )as co#pletely hu#an+caused. And yet )e )ere
po)erless to stop it. It ca#e so a!ruptly that no one clai#ed to
have 7oreseen it. J'perts de!ated on %F as )hether there )as a
real shortage or it )as Eust speculations. "hile the e'perts
de!ated6 #any people could not get their 7ood.
In an event o7 cli#ate pattern re+distri!ution6 7ood production
)ill !e the 7irst to !e disrupted. %he i#pact on 7ood prices )ill
!e i##ediate. /ut are )e ready*
No) consider another scenario? %he North ,ole !eco#ing ice+
7ree over the ne't 7e) decades. Ne) territorial disputes )ill
li-ely 7ollo). %he Russian Eust planted a 7lag on the 7loor o7
the Arctic .cean in August o7 20056 in an atte#pt to e'ert
so#e clai# in the area. I a# sure the A#erican6 the Canadian6
and #any countries around the Arctic Circle )ill 7eel o!ligated
to act i7 the Arctic !eco#es open )ater.
I7 the changes co#e suddenly6 as in the event o7 cli#ate pattern
redistri!ution6 )e #ay have an econo#ic hard+landing6 si#ilar
to the -ind o7 2shoc- therapy3 Jastern Jurope e'perienced
shortly a7ter the collapse o7 co##unis# )hen the econo#ic
condition e'perienced a sudden shoc-. /ut )orse6 i7 the
cli#ate -eeps 7lipping !ac- and 7orth !et)een the ne) and the
old patterns !ecause the condition is too close to the tipping
point that the syste# can tip !oth )ays6 then )e )ill really !e
in trou!le. 1o6 Eust as )hen you thin- you are giving up your
7ar#land in 1outh Carolina !ecause o7 the drought and #ove to
Nevada !ecause o7 the ne) 7ound rain7alls6 the old pattern
returns and you have to sell your land in Nevada and !uy !ac-
your 7ar# in 1outh Carolina. A7ter you have gone through
several ti#es o7 this -ind o7 7lip+7lopping6 you )ill !e !ro-e. In
7act6 not Eust you6 #ost people )ill !e !ro-e.
Care7ul readers #ay o!Eect to this scenario !ecause a typical
tipping point is one that )hen the syste# tips over6 it never
co#es !ac-. =o)ever6 this depends on ho) !ig the hysteresis
loop is. I7 there is not #uch hysteresis in the loop6 than a
syste# can easily tip !ac- )hen the syste# approach the
tipping point 7ro# the opposite direction. An e'a#ple )ill !e
the ther#ostat o7 an air conditioner. I7 you set the te#perature
o7 the ther#ostat to 5G
o
>B2L
o
C and i7 there is no !uilt+in
hysteresis in the control6 the air conditioner )ill turn on )hen
the roo# te#perature is Eust slightly over 5G
o
>. /ut soon the
te#perature o7 the roo# )ill drop !elo) 5G
o
> !ecause o7 the
air conditioner6 the air conditioner )ill then turns itsel7 o776 and
soon the roo# heats up again. 1o6 you can 7ind a situation
)hen the air conditioner is turning itsel7 on and o77 constantly6
annoying the 4esus out o7 the people in the roo#. /ut #ost air+
conditioners don&t do that !ecause o7 the !uilt+in hysteresis. It
turns on )hen the te#perature is over 5G
o
>6 !ut )ill only turn
o77 )hen the te#perature drops !elo)6 says6 5:
o
>6 and so you
have this :
o
> hysteresis !u77er !uilt into the syste#. @ost
natural tipping points have this !uilt+in hysteresis and so )hen
a syste# tips over6 it tips over. /ut there are situations )hen a
syste# can 7lip !ac- and 7orth !et)een the t)o states easily
and constantly. %hat is the type o7 situation )e are tal-ing
a!out here.
(hat $an we learn rom the e$onomy*
"e can learn a lot a!out cli#ate change !y studying the
econo#y + econo#ic changes. Cli#ate syste#s and econo#ic
syste#s e'hi!it a lot o7 si#ilarities. 1tudying one can o7ten
help understand the other6 even though so#e are Eust
9ualitative in nature.
>irst o7 all6 !oth syste#s are co#ple' 7eed!ac- syste#s that
are supposed to sel7+regulate6 up to a point6 thus o7ten 7ind
the#selves stay at one pattern 7or a long ti#e. 1econdly6 !oth
-inds o7 syste#s are chaotic in nature $ a s#all distur!ance in
one area can !e #agni7ied6 Eust !y chance6 into a si<a!le e77ect.
/oth are syste#s o7 interacting su!syste#s )ith positive and
negative 7eed!ac- #echanis#s. In an econo#ic syste#6
su!syste#s )ith positive 7eed!ac- #echanis# are responsi!le
7or the 7or#ing o7 econo#ic !u!!les. In a cli#ate syste#6
those su!syste#s tend to lead to stor#s Cin this sense6 )e
should descri!e it as a )eather syste# !ecause it is short ter#
in nature. =o)ever6 the Red 1pot6 a hurricane on 4upiter6 has
e'isted 7or hundreds o7 years6 and this hurricane de7initely
9uali7ies as a cli#ate pattern.D. /oth have certain types o7
periodicities? !usiness cycles in the econo#y and Jl Nino in
cli#ate6 7or e'a#ple. And #ost o7 all6 !oth -inds o7 syste#s
e'hi!it tipping points. Ah6 tipping points againO Let&s tal-
a!out tipping points.
% dierent kind o $limate $hange ) E$onomi$ $limate
$hange
@alcol# lad)ell devoted an entire !oo- to tal- a!out tipping
points? 2#he #ipping 9ointD 0ow Bittle #hings :an !ake a .ig
+ifference.3
/ut he is tal-ing a!out the econo#ic syste#. 4ust li-e the
cli#ate6 econo#ic conditions can change rapidly even though
the underlying #echanis# !uilds up only gradually. %he
change in the econo#y can !e as short as over the course o7 a
year once a tipping point has !een crossed. A tipping point is a
threshold. Asually6 it is a point o7 no return. 0uring the recent
2reat Recession3 that suddenly started in 200G6 the
une#ploy#ent rate in the Anited 1tates6 )hich had !een
holding steady 7or a long ti#e6 rose 7ro# :.;H in the April o7
200G to G.;H in the April o7 200;. In Eust a short year6 eight
#illion #ore people )ere added to psychological and 7inancial
hardship6 !ut the overall consu#er de!ts only changed slightly.
.ver the sa#e period o7 ti#e6 )e )itnessed the collapse o7
Leh#an /rothers6 the !an-ruptcy o7 eneral @otor C4un 200;D6
and the see-ing o7 cash in7usion o7 8 !illion dollars !y eneral
Jlectric6 a historic event 7or a historically healthy industrial
giant6 7ro# "arren /u77ett6 the second richest #an in the )orld
at the ti#e. %he une#ploy#ent rate stayed at ;UH up until
@arch o7 20116 )ith : #illion people stayed une#ployed 7or
#ore than one year and a hal7 Cthe 7or#ation o7 a group o7 so+
called the 2long+ter# une#ployed3D. %his )as a co#pletely
#an+#ade rapid econo#ic cli#ate change. It ca#e li-e a
stor#6 li-e a tsuna#i. And #ost econo#ists )ould tell you
2no!ody sa) it co#ing.3 C.7 course so#e people did6 see 2#he
.ig Short3 !y @ichael Le)isD. %he delay in the negative
7eed!ac- #echanis#6 )hich is the 7orce that is supposed to
correct the de!t+7inanced over+consu#ption !y A#erican
consu#ers6 created a !u!!le that had passed the threshold o7
sta!ility $ a tipping point $ !ut )as still !eing -ept #eta+sta!le
!y the lac- o7 a triggering event. "hen a triggering event
7inally did occur $ this ti#e the collapse o7 Leh#an /rothers $
a syste#ic collapse ensured.
>or a co#ple' syste#6 once a collapse occurred6 the syste#
)ill settle into a ne) state that is 9uite di77erent 7ro# the
previous syste#6 a so+called 2ne) nor#al3. In 7act6 4apan has
delivered a per7ect e'a#ple o7 a country in a 2ne) nor#al3.
>ro# 1;;0 to 20106 the 4apanese 0, gro)th )as al#ost 7lat
Cno gro)th6 see >ig. 18 !elo)D6 a ne) nor#al pheno#enon 7or
4apan. Contrasting this phase o7 no+gro)th )ith the previously
high gro)th phase6 the di77erence is o!vious. %he interesting
thing is that it )as not !ecause 4apan had saturated the )orld
)ith its products and resulted in no gro)th. Not so. 0uring the
sa#e period6 China and India 7looded the )orld )ith their o)n
products and so7t)are and their 0,s gre) e'ponentially.
4apan&s pro!le# )as 4apan&s alone. It crossed a tipping point
o7 its o)n and settled into a ne) nor#al )hile the )orld -ept
#oving 7or)ard )ithout it.
>ig. 18
1uicide rate in 4apan increased 7ro# a!out 15 per 1006000
people in 1;;8 to a!out 2: per 1006000 in 1;;5 a7ter an
e'tended period o7 econo#ic hardship. .lder people died
7inancially !ro-e.
4ust li-e an econo#ic syste#6 the real cli#ate syste# )ill
settle into a ne) pattern once a certain tipping point has !een
crossed6 and the change can !e sudden.
All co#ple' syste#s e'hi!it tipping points.
1o#eti#es even si#ple syste#s e'hi!it tipping points. A glass
o7 )ater at ;;
o
C is still li9uid )ater. I7 there is a species o7 7ish
that enEoy living in this ;;
o
C )ater environ#ent6 they #ay
thin- a 2
o
C increase in their environ#ent is no !ig deal. /ut at
101
o
C6 )ater is unsta!le. It can !e -ept at this #eta+sta!le state
!ecause o7 the lac- o7 a triggering event. =o)ever6 i7 a tiny
!u!!le develops !ecause o7 so#e tiny distur!ance6 the )ater
)ill !oil over and the syste# )ill settle into a ne) phase6 the
phase o7 stea#O %he 7ish )ill !e 7atally )rong to thin- that a
#ere t)o degrees change in their environ#ent )ill !e
accepta!le. It all depends on ho) close to those tipping points
the present state is.
Jcono#ics cli#ate changes produce econo#ics hardships
!ecause people and corporations cannot adEust 7ast enough $
layo77s6 !an-ruptciesQ physical cli#ate changes produce
physical and econo#ic hardships i7 people 7ail to adEust 7ast
enough as )ell6 and people o7ten 7ail to adEust 7ast enough.
And i7 the syste# #anaged to cross the tipping point #ultiple
ti#es6 then )e )ill !e in #uch #ore trou!le than )e thin-. 4ust
)hen you thin- you have adEusted to the ne) nor#al6 the old
nor#al co#es rushing !ac- and you 7ind yoursel7 having to re+
adEust to the old nor#al again. And )hen you have Eust
7inished #oving your 7ar# 7ro# 1outh Carolina to Nevada to
adEust to the ne) nor#al rain pattern a7ter 7our years o7
drought in 1outh Carolina and rains in Nevada6 the old pattern
co#es !ac- and you have to relocate !ac- to 1outh Carolina
again. No)6 this -ind o7 #igration is tough. %hat is
unpredicta!ility. 1hould you #ove again* .r should you stay*
%he )orst thing that can happen to any econo#ic syste#s is
volatility and unpredicta!ility. Ancertainty is ris-. A cli#ate
syste# that 7lips !ac- and 7orth rando#ly is one that is #ost
di77icult to predict. =u#an societies #ay not !e a!le to adEust
at all.
The Danger o ra!id $limate $hange & !re$i!itation
re1isited
1o6 glo!al )ar#ing is not the pro!le#6 glo!al )ar#ing
induced rapid local cli#ate redistri!ution is.
"e have seen rapid econo#ic cli#ate change in the recent
2reat Recession36 !ut can rapid change in the real cli#ate
really happen* 1o#e cli#ate s-eptics don&t thin- so. %hey
!elieve the change )ill only co#e in geological ti#e scale. /ut
loo- at the #ap !elo).
1ho)n !elo) is a #ap o7 distri!ution o7 the )orld&s deserts6
adopted 7ro# ar#ystudyguide.co#6
>ig. 1L
%he deserts are sho)n in yello) Cor grey i7 you are reading on
a !lac- and )hite eReaderD. %hey are nicely distri!uted on
!oth sides o7 the e9uator. Ne't6 let&s ta-e a loo- at the )orld&s
rain7all distri!ution !elo) Csource?
http?BB9ed.princeton.eduB#ainBI#age?"orldM,recipitationM@ap
6M21stMCenturyD6
>ig. 15
%he driest areas are colored in purple. 1o6 )hat do you see* 0o
you see the si#ilarity in these t)o #aps* 0o you see ho) the
purple areas a!ove correspond to the yello) deserts in the
previous #ap6 only that they are !igger* %he yello) areas in
the desert #ap are only su!sets o7 the purple areas in the
precipitation #ap. %he purple areas e'tend out to the seas.
"hen those purple areas intersect )ith the land6 they are the
deserts. "hen they are out at sea6 no!ody notice the#. %a-e 7or
e'a#ple6 the deserts in A#erica&s south)est region. %heir
corresponding purple area has #ore than 80H e'tended out
into the Jastern ,aci7ic6 )est o7 the Cali7ornia coast. I7 the
entire purple area )ere to #ove on land6 the desert area )ill
i##ediately dou!le. Also note the si<e o7 the purple area
associated )ith the Chilean Ataca#a 0esert. In this case6 it is
even #ore e'tre#e. .nly less than 10H o7 the dry region is on
land6 and ;0H o7 it is out at sea. It is this 10H o7 the dry region
that intersects )ith the land that causes the e'istence o7 the
Ataca#a 0esert. %he si<e o7 the entire dry region itsel7 is
co#para!le to the si<e o7 the entire 1outh A#erica. I#agine a
distri!ution pattern shi7t6 7or )hatever reason6 in such a )ay
that this dry area is shi7ted east)ard and covers the entire
1outh A#erica6 the entire 1outh A#erica )ould !eco#e a
giant desert itsel7. I7 that happens6 the disruption to agriculture
in 1outh A#erican countries )ill !e devastating. %he sa#e is
true o7 the dry area associate )ith the Kalahari 0esert covering
southern A7rica. "ith #ore than ;0H o7 the dry area out in the
1outh Atlantic6 this dry area is also as large as 1outhern A7rica
itsel7. I7 the entire dry area is shi7ted east)ard due to glo!al
rain7all redistri!ution6 the entire 1outhern A7rica )ill !e a
gigantic desert. And again6 the e77ect on the area&s agriculture
)ill !e very disruptive.
/ut6 can the dry areas shi7t*
%ypically6 deserts are associated )ith per#anent or se#i+
per#anent high pressure syste#s in the at#osphere. %he
persistent high pressure areas cause rains to not 7all in these
areas. /ut the locations o7 these high pressure areas are !y no
#eans constant. %hey can change. Let&s ta-e a loo- at the
pressure #ap !elo) and e'a#ine the high pressure syste#s
that are associated )ith these dry areas. >irst in 4anuary6
>ig. 1GA
then in 4uly6
>ig. 1G/
You can pro!a!ly see the si#ilarities !et)een these t)o #aps.
,lease note the locations o7 the 2=3s. %hese are the high
pressure areas. %he high pressure area -no)n as the 2,aci7ic
=igh3 #oves 7ro# the )est o7 1outhern Cali7ornia to the )est
o7 )estern Canada 7ro# 4anuary to 4uly. %he high pressure
syste# that is responsi!le 7or the Ataca#a 0esert in Chile also
#oves around according to the season. %he A<ores =igh6
)hich is typically associated )ith the A7rican 1ahara #oves
across the Atlantic 7ro# 4anuary to 4uly to !eco#e the
/er#uda =igh in the northern su##er. %hese -inds o7 high
pressure syste#s6 though 9uite predicta!le6 are not per#anent.
%hey can shi7t. In 7act in 20056 the A<oresB/er#uda =igh
7ailed to 7or# all together. As a result6 the Eet strea# )as #uch
#ore south)ard than nor#al. In place o7 the A<ores =igh6 a
high pressure region developed over central and eastern
Jurope. >or a long ti#e6 #uch o7 southern Jurope su77ered
7ro# a heat )ave. At one point6 Athens o7 reece recorded
:L
o
C te#perature6 shattering all previous high te#perature
records. 1i#ilarly6 in 20106 Russia su77ered its share o7
Juropean heat )ave. Record setting te#perature !ro-e out
throughout the su##er. @osco) )as engul7ed in 7la#e
!ecause o7 hot )eather induced 7orest 7ires. /ecause o7 the
da#age the high te#perature caused6 the Russian govern#ent
started to reali<e that glo!al )ar#ing #ay not !e Eust o7
acade#ic interest.
"e -no) )eather pattern can change instantaneously. In one
#o#ent it is sunshine6 and in the ne't #o#ent it is raining.
%here has !een rapid one+day te#perature drop o7 (0
o
C C8:
o
>D
in one )inter in ,ennsylvania. "eather change is the nor#.
=o)ever6 cli#ate is the long+ter# trend o7 )eather patterns. At
the 7irst glance6 rapid cli#ate change sounds li-e an o'y#oron.
A rapid long+ter# change* I7 it is long ter#6 ho) can it !e
rapid*
In general6 )e are not particularly concerned a!out the short+
ter# )eather changes as long as they al)ays return to the
seasonal average. >ar#ers are particularly a)are o7 that.
Raining 7or a 7e) days is 7ine as long as sunshine returns
a7ter)ard. =o)ever6 a rainless su##er #ay spell trou!le 7or
so#e 7ol-s. 1everal consecutive rainless su##ers in a
nor#ally )et area could !e a sign o7 local cli#ate change. %he
change can co#e suddenly one year6 !ut it )ill ta-e you
several years to recogni<e it.
The $hange in !olar atmos!heri$ /et stream
In the northern he#isphere6 there is a circu#+glo!al Eet strea#
located at the latitude near the Anited 1tates+Canada !order in
the )inter. %his Eet strea# shi7ts north)ard in the su##er. In
)inter6 cold air to the north and )ar#er air to the south are
separated !y this Eet strea#. 1o in Canada6 )hich is usually on
the north side o7 the Eet strea#6 te#perature is o7ten #uch
lo)er than that in the Anited 1tates. =o)ever6 the location o7
this Eet strea# is not al)ays the sa#e. .ccasionally6 the Eet
strea# deviates 7ro# its nor#al route. I have adopted an
illustration 7ro# "i-i#edia Co##ons to sho) the deviation
involved !elo)?
>ig. 1;
%he 7lo) o7 the polar Eet strea# depends on a lot o7 7actors6
a#ong the# the te#perature di77erential !et)een the e9uator
and the polar region. In )inter6 this te#perature di77erence is
the highest and the 7lo) o7 the Eet strea# is the strongest. 1ince
the Eet strea# is the !oundary !et)een the cold <one and the
)ar# <one6 )hen the Eet strea# !ends south)ard6 as is in CcD o7
>ig. 1;6 so#e southern A1 1tates that are nor#ally )ar# in
)inter suddenly 7ind the#selves inside this south)ardly
e'tended !lo!6 and e'perience severe cold te#peratures and
sno) stor#s6 so#eti#es getting up to 2:3 o7 sno) in a day6
)hile so#e northern cities outside o7 the !lo! such as /oston
)ill !e !athed in the )ar#th o7 southern air. %he north and the
south get turned upside do)n. %his -ind o7 changes is sudden6
!ut reversi!le. .7ten a7ter a 7e) days6 or at #ost a )ee- or t)o6
the Eet strea# retreats north)ard to its nor#al 7lo) pattern6
pulling !ac- )ith it the colder Arctic air. %his is Eust a nor#al
change in )eather pattern !ecause it is 7ully e'pected to return
to its 7or#er pattern. It is classi7ied as )eather change6 and not
cli#ate change. "hat )ill constitute a sudden cli#ate change*
It )ill !e a per#anent shi7t in the 7lo) and locations o7 the Eet
strea#6 such as #aintaining the 7lo) pattern sho)n in CcD long
ter#. Is the per#anent shi7t possi!le* It is hard to say. Jven
though the location o7 the Eet strea# does 7luctuate6 and
changes 7ro# su##er to )inter6 it is conceiva!le that its
average route can suddenly change in response to cli#ate
condition6 such as the te#perature di77erential !et)een
e9uatorial regions and the poles6 i7 a tipping point has !een
crossed.
In 20056 7or a period o7 t)o #onths6 the Eet strea# over Jurope
e'tended #uch 7urther south than usual6 pro!a!ly !ecause o7
the lac- o7 a high pressure area6 the so+called A<ores =igh over
the Atlantic ocean )hich is nor#ally there at this ti#e o7 the
year6 and the lo) pressure syste#s spa)ned !y the Eet strea#
over the Anited Kingdo# du#ped huge a#ount o7 rain7alls
onto the area6 resulted in serious 7looding. %his is an e'a#ple
o7 an e'tended period o7 a!nor#al Eet strea# 7lo) $ the entire
su##er. Can the average 7lo) path change per#anently* It is
conceiva!le. It is 7luid dyna#ics. >or one thing6 since glo!al
)ar#ing a77ect the polar regions #ore than the e9uatorial
regions6 the change in the di77erential in te#perature can
conceiva!ly change the Eet strea# 7lo) pattern6 either #ore
north)ard or south)ard6 resulting in per#anent cli#ate pattern
changes in individual local areas.
Another e'a#ple o7 a south)ard shi7t o7 the Eet strea#
occurred in 2008 and has !een !la#ed 7or the creation o7 an
e'cessively large dead <one o77 the coast o7 .regon in
A#erica. In a paper pu!lished in the 9roceedings of >ational
6cade$% of Sciences of "nited States of 6$erica in !arch of
2?6 4ohn A. /arth o7 .regon 1tate Aniversity and his
colla!orators 7ro# institutions including Aniversity o7 North
Carolina at Chapel =ill6 Aniversity o7 =a)aii at @anoa6
1ono#a 1tate Aniversity6 and Aniversity o7 Cali7ornia at 1anta
/ar!ara )rote6
2.ecause nutrient suppl% and ph%toplankton &io$ass in
shelf waters are highl% sensiti(e to (ariation in upwelling-
dri(en circulation, shifts in the ti$ing and strength of
upwelling $a% alter &asic nutrient and car&on flu-es
through $arine food we&s' 2e show how a 1-$onth dela%
in the 24 spring transition to upwelling-fa(ora&le wind
stress in the northern :alifornia :urrent Barge !arine
5cos%ste$ resulted in nu$erous ano$aliesD war$ water,
low nutrient le(els, low pri$ar% producti(it%, and an
unprecedented low recruit$ent of rock% intertidal
organis$s' #he dela% was associated with 2- to 4-da%
wind oscillations acco$pan%ing a southward shift of the =et
strea$'3
%hat sa#e year C2008D6 lo) sal#on run )as recorded.
0estructions o7 the sea 7loor ha!itats 7or #arine ani#als )ere
o!served.
1o#eti#es6 cli#ate change ta-es the 7or# o7 a change in the
relative percentage o7 )eather patterns. >or instance6 i7 under a
nor#al cli#ate pattern6 G0H o7 the ti#e the Eet strea# 7lo)s in
the pattern sho)n in CaD6 and 20H o7 the ti#e 7lo)s in the
pattern sho)n in CcD6 !ut a ne) cli#ate pattern #ay !e the one
)ith G0H in CcD and only 20H in CaD. I7 that is the case6 the city
o7 Atlanta )ill !e #uch colder than /oston in a ne) nor#al
year and the 7ar#lands near Atlanta )on&t !e a!le to produce
)hat they used to produce6 or !eco#ing co#pletely non+
productive all together. .ne also cannot e'pect the 7ar#lands
near /oston to pic- up the slac- !ecause there is no guarantee
that the loss in one area )ill al)ays !e co#pensated 7or !y the
gain in another area. %he Eet strea# could )ell send the )ar#
air out into the ocean instead o7 giving it to /oston6 and the
overall productivity o7 7ar#lands )ill !e decreased. Ironically6
glo!al )ar#ing could !ring a!out colder )inters 7or so#e
southern states.
%here7ore6 a per#anent shi7t in the polar Eet strea# patterns can
per#anently change the local cli#ates o7 #any areas6 including
those in North A#erica6 Jurope and Asia. "orld)ide 7ood
productions could !e at sta-e.
As the earth&s cli#ate is a co#ple' 7eed!ac- syste#6 one
cannot e'pect the increase in C.
2
level )ill only !ring a!out a
si#ple uni7or# glo!al change o7 te#perature. 1o#ething else
)ill also happen. A co#ple' syste# usually has #ore than one
#ode o7 sta!le 7lo) patterns. 0epending on ho) 7ar the
conditions are 7ro# the threshold o7 a transition6 a s#all
change in glo!al condition can so#eti#es !ring a!out a !ig
transition i7 a tipping point has !een crossed. 4ust li-e the
econo#ic syste# )e had in 200G6 the gradual !uild up o7
consu#er de!t in the 7or# o7 over !orro)ing6 and the gro)th
in the su!pri#e #ortgage sector in the Anited 1tates suddenly
#ani7ested itsel7 in the collapse o7 a !ig invest#ent !an-. .nce
the insta!ility had !een triggered6 #ore 2too+!ig+to+7ail3 7ir#s
started to e'hi!it their o)n insta!ilities. I7 not !ecause o7
govern#ental interventions6 an uncontrolled crash )ould
result. Jven )ith govern#ental interventions6 the resulting
ne) econo#ic pattern is one o7 high une#ploy#ent rates )ith
7ir#s holding on to their precious cash? An econo#y in severe
recession and lac- o7 li9uidity.
Are )e approaching any threshold in the cli#ate syste#* "e
don&t -no). /ut )e -no) )e are in uncharted territory as 7ar
as at#ospheric car!on dio'ide concentration is concerned. A
si#ilarity can !e dra)n !et)een the gradual !uild+up o7 car!on
dio'ide level in the at#osphere and the gradual !uild up o7
consu#er de!ts. "e -no) !oth are not sustaina!le. "e -no)
in !oth cases6 )e are in ne) territories. "e should al)ays !e
care7ul )hen entering an uncharted territory6 shouldn&t )e*
El 8ino
Another possi!le rapid cli#ate change is the esta!lish#ent o7
per#anent Jl Nino. Jl Nino a77ects Cali7ornia as )ell as
Australia on the other side o7 the ,aci7ic. 0uring an Jl Nino
year6 the trade )inds that nor#ally 7lo) 7ro# the east to the
)est across the ,aci7ic !eco#e stagnant6 so#eti#es even
reverse direction. A region in east ,aci7ic Cclose to A#erican
)est coastD !eco#es )ar#er than nor#al )hile the region
closer to Asia !eco#es cooler than nor#al. "hy the trade
)inds stop and even reverse direction is a #ystery re#ains to
!e solved.
%rade )inds are sur7ace )inds that are nor#ally !lo)ing
across oceans 7ro# east to )est. %he 7or#ation o7 trade )inds
is si#ple. As the e9uatorial regions o7 the oceans are )ar#er
than other parts o7 the oceans6 air rises on the e9uator. As air
rises6 so#ething needs to 7lo) in to ta-e its placeQ other)ise
there )ill !e a vacuu# Cor lo) pressure region6 in realityD.
"hat 7lo)s in to ta-e the place o7 the risen air is the sur7ace air
7ro# !oth north and south o7 the e9uator. /ut since the earth is
rotating6 the speed at the e9uator is the highest !ecause the
e9uator is the !iggest circle. At the other e'tre#e6 the poles
hardly #ove at all. Air 7ro# outside o7 the e9uatorial region is
typically co+#oving )ith the earth it originates6 )hich is
#oving slo)er than the e9uator. "hen this air #oves onto the
e9uator6 it is typically slo)er than the e9uatorial earth !eneath6
and has to !e dragged along. 1ince the earth rotates 7ro# )est
to east6 the slo)er #oving air )ill appear to the earth as a )ind
that is !lo)ing 7ro# the east to the )est6 thus the trade )ind
C#ore !elo) in the three+cell structure o7 at#ospheric
circulationD.
As the trade )inds !lo) 7ro# east to the )est across the
,aci7ic6 they carry #oisture and ocean heat )ith it. "hen the
)ind gets to Australia and Indonesia 7ro# Cali7ornia6 it du#ps
this #oisture as rain7alls onto the region. In a nor#al year6
Australia )ill get rain7alls6 and southern Cali7ornia )ill !e dry.
=o)ever6 )hen the trade )ind stops and reverses direction6
eastern Australia )ill e'perience drought6 and southern
Cali7ornia )ill have #ore than average rain7alls. 1o#eti#es
#oistures get carried as 7ar east)ard as Las Fegas and its
surrounding areas6 resulting in rare desert 7looding and
7lo)ering. As the )ind is not carrying heat a)ay 7ro# the
eastern ,aci7ic6 a hot spot on the sur7ace o7 the ,aci7ic .cean
appears. Appearance o7 hot spots on the eastern ,aci7ic is a
signature o7 Jl Nino.
Can the reverse in the direction o7 trade )inds !e #ade
per#anent* Again6 it is hard to say as )e don&t understand
)hat e'actly cause Jl Nino in the 7irst place. /ut it could
happen. I7 Jl Nino !eco#es a nor#al pattern6 then drought in
Australia )ill !eco#e #ore severe6 and southern Cali7ornia
can e'perience 7looding and #ud slides as annual events.
No)6 is that good or !ad* I7 )e Cthe econo#yD can adEust 7ast
enough6 it #ay !e 7ine. /ut i7 )e cannot6 it )ill !e !ad. I7
Australia is in a constant 2!ig dry36 and 1outhern Cali7ornia
-eeps getting 7looded6 insurance rates in !oth places )ill go up
at the #ini#u#.
% !ossible disr#!tion to the three $on1e$tion $ells in the
atmos!here
"hen you !oil )ater in a teapot6 you can see the 7or#ation o7
convection cells. It loo-s so#e)hat si#ilar to the s-etch !elo)
in >ig. 20?
>ig. 20
"hen the 7ire at the !otto# o7 the teapot is uni7or#6 the
nu#!er o7 convection cells 7or#ed to circulate hot )ater 7ro#
the !otto# to the sur7ace is ar!itrary. /y ar!itrary6 I #ean the
nu#!er o7 convection cells can !e very di77erent depending on
the history o7 the heating and the initial condition !e7ore the
convection cells )ere esta!lished. Any tiny distur!ance can
cause the nu#!er o7 convection cells and their distri!ution to
turn out di77erent6 in 7act6 very di77erent. In #ore scienti7ic
language6 there are #ultiple e9ually pro!a!le sta!le
con7igurations that the syste# can assu#e. "hich o7 these
con7igurations the syste# eventually assu#es turns out to !e
purely pro!a!ilistic. Jven a7ter the syste# has settled do)n on
one sta!le con7iguration6 it can still 7lip to a di77erent6 !ut
e9ually sta!le con7iguration i7 there are !ig enough distur!ance
that can 7lip it.
I7 the 7ire at the !otto# o7 the teapot is not uni7or#6 then the
)ater al)ays rises at the locations o7 the hot spots6 and sin-s
into the cooler spots at the !otto#. >or e'a#ple6 i7 )e #ove
the 7ire to one side6 such as sho)n in >ig. 216 )e can end up
)ith a convection pattern loo-ing li-e the one sho)n !elo)?
>ig. 21
%his is a natural con7iguration as the right hand side o7 the
teapot is hotter !ecause o7 the 7ire and the other end is naturally
cooler. =ot )ater there7ore rises 7ro# the location o7 the 7ire.
And )hat goes up #ust co#e do)n. A7ter releasing the heat to
the air a!ove6 the )ater has to sin- do)n so#e)here6 and
)here is a !etter place to sin- then the 7ar end o7 the teapot*
=o)ever6 given enough distur!ance at the !eginning6 our 27ire+
to+the+side3 syste# can develop into a pattern sho)n in >ig.
22?
>ig. 22
=ot )ater still rises a!ove the 7ire6 and cooler )ater still sin-s
at the 7ar end o7 the teapot )here the te#perature is the lo)est.
=o)ever6 in the central portion o7 the teapot6 instead o7 )ater
7lo)ing straight 7ro# the right to the le7t on the top sur7ace6
and le7t to the right at the !otto#6 )ater 7lo)s !ac-)ard
!ecause o7 7orced convection due to the adEacent cells. "hy I
a# discussing this point )ill !eco#e clear as )e progress
along.
No)6 let&s turn our attention to the earth.
%he e9uatorial region o7 the earth receives #ore heat 7ro# the
sun than the polar region !ecause o7 the angle to the sun. %hat
is )hy the polar regions are 7ree<ing cold and the e9uatorial
regions are !urning hot. In theory6 the air at the e9uatorial
regions )ill heat up and rises6 )hile the air at the North ,ole
)ill cool and sin-s6 7or#ing a giant circulation pattern depicted
in >ig.2( !elo)?
>ig. 2(
In practice6 the air does rise up at the e9uatorial regions and
cold air does sin- at the North ,ole. =o)ever6 the situation is
#ore li-e the teapot in >ig. 22 then the one in >ig. 21. In 7act6
the earth&s at#osphere has this 2three+cell+structure3?
>ig. 2:
Air does rise up around the e9uator6 and it does #ove pole)ard
in !oth directions $ north and south C>ig. 2: only sho)s the
circulations in the northern he#isphere. 1i#ilar circulations
also happen in the southern he#isphereD. =o)ever6 !e7ore the
)ar# e9uatorial air can even reach hal7 )ay through to)ards
the t)o poles6 it co#es do)n at a!out (0
o
N and (0
o
16 and starts
to circulate !ac- to)ards the e9uator6 7or#ing the so+called
=adley cells.
Air does sin- at !oth poles !ecause they are the coldest spots.
%he t)o sets o7 air then spread to)ards the e9uator. =o)ever6
!e7ore they can reach the e9uator6 they are dredged up near
L0
o
N and L0
o
1 respectively6 and then start to 7lo) to)ards the
polar regions again6 7or#ing the so+called ,olar Cells.
In the #iddle6 sand)iched !et)een these t)o ther#ally driven
circulations are the so+called >errel Cells6 one north o7 the
e9uator and one south o7 it.
%he three+cell+structure has signi7icant i#plication 7or local
cli#ates Che#ispherically spea-ingD. At (0
o
N and (0
o
16 )hen
the air descends to)ards the sur7ace6 it creates high pressure
areas )hich in general correspond to areas o7 good )eather and
lo) rain7alls. It is also around these regions that one 7inds
#ost o7 the )orld&s deserts Csee >ig. 1LD. I7 the three+cell+
structure )ere to change6 )orld)ide rain7all distri!utions )ill
change6 and that is e'actly )hat local cli#ate changes are
a!out. 0on&t thin- te#perature is the only i#portant thing that
changes i7 glo!al )ar#ing is real. ,recipitation is 7ar #ore
i#portant.
Can the three+cell+structure turn into a 7ive+cell+structure
si#ilar to the situation in our teapot in >ig. 20* 1o 7ar6 no
scientist has proposed such a dra#atic scenario Eust yet. @ost
people have considered only #inor changes such as the
e'pansion o7 the =adley Cells Cthat can also change the
locations o7 the desertsD. /ut )ho -no)s6 it #ight happen.
I7 you are in9uisitive enough6 you #ay as-6 2/ut )hy is there
this three+cell+structure any)ay* "hy isn&t it Eust a si#ple
single circulation cell structure li-e the one sho)n in >ig. 2(*3
%o understand )hy a single cell structure is not possi!le 7or the
earth6 )e have to consider the 7act that the earth is spinning.
I7 you don&t have very good three di#ensional visuali<ation
capa!ility6 you can sa7ely s-ip this section. =o)ever6 i7 you
can i#agine and #anipulate (+0 o!Eects in your head6 then
please read on.
VVVV
0espite so#e )idely spread i#pression that the at#osphere is
too co#plicated 7or hu#an to understand6 or our cli#ate
#odels !eing no good 7or cli#ate prediction6 )e have actually
understood 9uite a lot a!out the inner )or-ings o7 the
at#osphere. >or e'a#ple6 )hy there is a three+cell+structure in
our at#osphereQ and )hy the deserts are )here they areQ )hy
there are trade )inds and Eet strea#sQ and so on and so 7orth.
%o understand )hy a single cell circulation structure is
unsta!le 7or a rotating Jarth6 one has to understand that the
e9uator is #oving 7aster then the rest o7 the earth6 in ter#s o7
linear distance traveled in space per hour. In ter#s o7 linear
distance traveled6 the poles are standing still. 1ince the earth
co#pletes one rotation every 2: hours6 i7 you are standing on
the e9uator6 you go around a !ig circle every 2: hours. 1ince
the radius o7 the earth is a!out :6000 #iles6 one !ig circle
around the earth at the e9uator co#es out to !e a!out 286000
#iles. 1o6 your speed is roughly 286000 #iles per day6 or
roughly 1000 #iles an hour i7 you are standing on the e9uator
and #oving )ith the earth. /ut i7 you are standing on /oston6
,aris6 /eiEing6 or other si#ilar northern cities6 you )ill !e
going in a s#aller circle6 and the circle )ill only !e a!out 50H
as !ig as the e9uator.
>ig. 28
1ince you cover less distance in space in the sa#e 2:+hour
period6 you are going at only 50H o7 the speed6 )hich is only
500 #iles per hour6 a di77erence o7 (00 #iles per hour6 or
roughly 800-# per hour co#pared )ith the person standing at
the e9uator. No) i#agine yoursel7 !eing a patch o7 )ar# air
rising up a!ove the e9uator at land speed C)indless conditionD6
you )ill !e going at 1000 #iles per hour6 though <ero speed
relative to the ground )hich is rotating 7ro# the )est to the
east. As you dri7t north6 you are still going at the sa#e speed
CNe)ton&s 7irst la) says you )ill !e cruising at the sa#e speed
unless so#ething slo)s you do)n.D !ut the land underneath is
no) going at a slo)er speed6 and even slo)er as you dri7t #ore
and #ore to the north. /y the ti#e you get to the s-y a!ove a
northern city li-e /oston6 you are going 7aster than the land
!elo) !y (00 #iles per hour. %hat is !eyond even the
hurricane speedO >ro# the point o7 vie) o7 a person standing in
do)nto)n /oston6 you are a patch o7 little cra<y )ind !lo) at
(00 #iles an hour )ay up in the s-yO And you are only 10
#iles a!ove the ground. It is Eust )ay too 7ast to !e sta!le6
especially co#pared )ith slo)er #oving air !eneath. %he air
!elo) you )ill al)ays !e slo)er !ecause they are in #ore
contact )ith the land and the land drags it do)n. 1ince you are
going 7ast6 and the air !elo) you are going slo)er6 that is a
vertical )ind shear and )hen the speed di77erence is too #uch6
it !eco#es a situation sho)n in >ig. 2L !elo)6 and it !eco#es
unsta!le. It is Eust li-e )hen a !ig )ave is co#ing into shallo)
)ater and the )ater speed at the sur7ace is 7aster than the speed
at the !otto#6 the )ave crests and rolls.
>ig. 2L
%he vertical )ind shear causes you to !end do)n)ard and you
descend. In 7act6 )ay !e7ore you can get as 7ar north as /oston6
you )ill have already co#e do)n. %he place you co#e do)n
turns out to !e roughly near (0
o
N. "hen you co#e do)n6 you
)ill !e slo)ed do)n !y the air !eneath. "hen you touch
do)n6 the land )ill 7eel a )ind !lo)ing 7ro# the )est to the
east. "hat the land 7eels is the re#nant o7 the su!tropical
)esterlies6 )hich you once )ere.
VVVV
1o6 since the earth is spinning around its a'is6 a single cell
structure cannot !e sustained. It has to !e #ultiple cells. /ut
)hy is it three* Actually6 it isn&t. It is only three )hen the
situation is ideal. %he #iddle cell6 the >errel cell6 is not in
itsel7 a ther#ally driven circulation. It only e'ists !ecause at
one end it )as pulled do)n !y the descending !ranch o7 the
=adley Cell to the south6 and at the other end li7ted up !y the
ascending !ranch o7 the ,olar Cell to the north. Its e'istence is
at the #ercy o7 other ele#ents in the at#osphere. Its
circulation is 7ar 7ro# !eing sta!le. In 7act6 the >errel Cell is
o7ten !ro-en !y stor#s inside its o)n territory.
As a general rule6 heat al)ays 7lo)s 7ro# the e9uatorial
regions to the polar regions. %he 7lo) structure o7 the entire
at#osphere is set up to 7acilitate this heat transport. =o)ever6
in the #iddle regions )here the >errel Cell rules6 the vertically
rotating >errel Cell is so#eti#es not as e77icient as a
hori<ontally counter+cloc-)ise Cvie)ed 7ro# a!ove6 northern
he#isphereD rotating stor# i7 such a stor# is availa!le. And
!ecause o7 this e77iciency6 #id latitude cyclones o7ten 7or#6
driven !y the need to transport ther#al energy pole)ard6 and
that characteri<e the #id latitude cli#ate patterns.
=o)ever6 these general circulation patterns can !e upset !y
glo!al )ar#ing. %hey can change. "hen the =adley Cells
e'pand as the glo!al te#perature !eco#es )ar#er6 the #id
latitude stor#s can !eco#e stronger or )ea-er. Jither )ay6 the
change causes local cli#ate changes. I7 the stor#s !eco#e
stronger6 there )ill !e #ore destruction and the insurance
co#panies )ill !e -eeping an eye on that. I7 the stor#s
!eco#e )ea-er6 places that need occasional strong )inds 7or
proper #i'ing can !eco#e stagnant6 and that is not good either
!ecause insu77icient precipitation )ill result. C%he 1ahara
0esert )as once green until the @onsoon )ind stopped
visiting6 then it turned into a desert.D Any upset to the
esta!lished pattern can cause upheaval to the local cli#ate
pattern6 and there7ore the local econo#y. "hen a to)n )hose
econo#y depends on sled racing does not have enough sno)6
its !usinesses su77er. "hen sno) stops 7alling several years in
a ro)6 !usinesses #ight not survive6 so #ight not the to)n.
,eople )ould have to #ove )hen ho#e price is 7alling !ecause
everyone )ants to #ove a)ay. %hen ho#e price collapses.
%his is the -ind o7 loss )e are tal-ing a!out associated )ith
cli#ate change6 not necessary the loss o7 lives.
I7 the at#ospheric circulation pattern changes a!ruptly6 the
e77ect to the )orld econo#y #ay !e li-e the 2shoc- therapy3
happened to the Jastern Juropean countries )hen the 1oviet
econo#y collapsed6 or li-e the sudden 7ree<e o7 li9uidity in the
Anited 1tates in 200G that caused the great recession. "hatever
it is li-e6 )e #ay !e in 7or a shoc-6 )ith unpredicta!le
outco#e. And i7 the (+cell structure turns into a 8+cell
structure6 )ho -no)s6 it #ight cause the greatest hu#an
#igration C7orced #igrationD in history since the da)n o7
hu#an civili<ation.
%he gradual !uild up o7 consu#er de!t and the si<e o7 the
housing !u!!le in the Anited 1tates suddenly #ani7ested itsel7
in the 7or# o7 7ro<en li9uidity 7ollo)ing the collapses o7
several #aEor 7inancial institutions. Li9uidity circulation
stopped. As healthy a co#pany as J could not get enough
short+ter# credit6 and re9uired the cash in7usion o7 N8 !illion
7ro# "arren /u77ett. 4ust li-e the econo#y6 the cli#ate syste#
can suddenly change. %he gradual !uild up o7 car!on dio'ide
in the at#osphere can suddenly #ani7ested itsel7 in the 7or# o7
#aEor changes in glo!al circulation patterns6 )ith part o7 it
grind to a halt. "hen that happens6 the resulting changes in
precipitation patterns could !ring a!out a #aEor shoc- in 7ood
production6 increasing the chance o7 social insta!ility6 or even
)ars.
1o6 glo!al )ar#ing is not the pro!le#6 local a!rupt changes
areO
1o6 is cli#ate change good or !ad* In a sense6 it is li-e as-ing
2is an econo#ic recession good or !ad*3 1o#e #ar-et
7unda#entalists !elieve recessions are good. Recessions are
necessary to clean up the #ar-et so that #ar-et e77iciency can
!e restored. >ro# the point o7 vie) o7 the society as a )hole6
that is true. 4ust li-e replacing all #ediocre players o7 a C tea#
)ith superstar players 7ro# an A tea# is good 7or the tea#.
=o)ever6 it does not ta-e into consideration the original
#e#!ers o7 the tea#. o through the sa#e logic6 a pande#ic
is good 7or the society !ecause it -ills o77 the )ea-est and the
surviving population )ill !e the healthiest. It is a !etter society.
1o6 )hat are )e tal-ing a!out*
As 7or people )ho have cited the horse #anure pro!le# that
)as proEected to !e (+story high !ut never #ateriali<ed !ecause
o7 the invention o7 the auto#o!ile6 the thin-ing is li-e clai#ing
consu#er de!t could -eep going up !ecause so#ething else
)as going to happen that )ould ta-e care o7 it. 1o#eti#es it is
true though. Re#e#!er those people in @assachusetts )ho
)ere tal-ing a!out increasing heating oil su!sidies 7or the poor
)hen oil price )as at N180 per !arrel* 1o#ething une'pected
did co#e along that year that too- care o7 the high oil price. It
)as the great recession. /ut can )e al)ays count on so#ething
that )ill al)ays happen to render a sustaina!ility pro!le# into
a non+issue* 1o#eti#es so#ething does have to give i7 it is not
sustaina!le. =orse #anure on city streets )ould have !een a
severe pro!le# i7 the internal co#!ustion engine had not !een
invented. Collection !uc-ets )ould have to !e hoisted !ehind
each horse to collect its droppings.
The melting o the Third Pole
%he %i!etan plateau at the 7oothill o7 the =i#alayas is o7ten
re7erred to as the %hird ,ole o7 the )orld !ecause its glaciers
contain the third largest !ody o7 7ro<en )ater on Jarth6 Eust
ran-ed !ehind the t)o poles. %his region is also the source o7
so#e ten #aEor rivers including the #ighty Yangt<e6 the
Yello) River6 the @e-ong River6 and the 1al)een River6
supplying )ater to #illions o7 people do)nstrea#. %he longest
o7 these6 the Yangt<e River6 travels thousands o7 #iles across
China&s heartland6 connecting thousands o7 inland la-es6 !e7ore
#erging itsel7 into the ,aci7ic .cean at the Jast China 1ea
outside o7 1hanghai. Another #aEor river6 the @e-ong6
e'tending south)ard6 running through China6 /ur#a6 Laos6
Fietna#6 and eventually arriving at its 7inal destination at the
1outh China 1ea6 supplying 7resh )ater and supporting
agriculture )herever it reaches6 is )hat #a-es rice production
possi!le in #uch o7 Ca#!odia and Fietna#6 in7luencing the
7ood supply o7 the entire southeast Asia. A third #aEor river6
the 1al)een6 7irst runs )est)ard in south)est China6 then turns
south6 entering /ur#a6 crossing into %hailand6 and then !ac-
into /ur#a again !e7ore rushing out to the sea.
Jvery )inter6 )hen sno) 7alls on the %i!etan plateau6 the
7ro<en )ater is te#porarily stored here as accu#ulated sno) or
as part o7 the glaciers. "hen spring eventually arrives6 sno)
slo)ly #elts and )ater is released into the rivers that originate
here6 nourishing the regions )here the rivers pass6 providing
li7elines to #illions o7 people across the region.
"ith glo!al )ar#ing accelerating6 the %i!etan glaciers are
disappearing. .ne study concluded that at the current #elting
rate6 the %i!etan plateau )ill !e 7ree o7 glaciers !y the year
2100. 1o6 )hat is the conse9uence*
laciers are indicators o7 local te#peratures. "hen the glaciers
are all gone6 less sno) )ill !e accu#ulated during the )inter
!ecause #ore o7 it )ill !e #elted a)ay 9uic-ly as it co#es
do)n. In #ore e'tre#e situation6 rains6 instead o7 sno)s )ill
7all and the plateau )ill no longer provide the !u77ering
7unction it once provides. Instead o7 steady strea#s o7 )ater
during springs and su##ers6 rivers )ill 7lood early in the year
and then 9uic-ly run dry.
China learned it the hard )ay on )hat )ould happen )hen
upstrea# !u77ers )ere co#pro#ised6 though in a #uch #ilder
scale. In around the 1;80s6 people living in areas relatively
upstrea# in the Yangt<e Cit should !e considered #id strea#6
to !e #ore preciseD started a large+scale destruction o7 7orests
in the na#e o7 develop#ent. "ith the destruction o7 7orests6
the !u77ering 7unction o7 the 7orests 7or )ater resources got
destroyed )ith the#. As a result6 )hatever ca#e do)n 7ro#
the s-y 9uic-ly 7ound their )ays into the rivers. Rain )ater6
instead o7 !eing soa-ed up in the 7orests and slo)ly released
into the rivers6 rushed into the rivers as soon as it hit the
ground. A7ter the 1;G0s6 )hat )as then hundred+year 7loods
turned into yearly occurrence Cor 7elt li-e itD6 resulted in
incalcula!le property da#ages and lives lost. "hen 7looding
occurred6 da#s had to !e !lo)n up so that )ater could !e
diverted6 and cities could !e saved.
"hen the glaciers on the %hird ,ole all #elt a)ay6 it )ill !e
)orse6 a lot )orse. .ne third o7 the )orld&s population )ill !e
threatened )ith 7loods and droughts. Alti#ately6 7ood supplies
)ill !e at ris-.
No) is it !ad*
Not 9uite6 according to so#e cli#ate change s-eptics. "hen an
event that ta-es as long as ;0 years to co#plete6 the local
econo#ies )ill have ti#e to adEust. And they are right a!out
that. %hey argue that cli#ate change alar#ists only 7ocus on a
static picture. Jcono#ic and population conditions are
dyna#ic. I7 the )et season and dry season o7 the Yangt<e River
!eco#e too e'tre#e6 people )ill #ove a)ay6 or 7acilities )ill
!e !uilt to #itigate the pro!le#. 1o6 there is really nothing to
)orry a!out. "e can deal )ith it. I a# sure >ree#an 0yson
)ill agree )ith this vie). As a #atter o7 7act6 part o7 the
reasons 7or the construction o7 the %hree orges 0a# on the
Yangt<e River is an atte#pt to control the 7loods o7 the #ighty
Yangt<e. =o)ever6 !ecause o7 the construction itsel76 1.(
#illion people )ere displaced6 and historic sites )ere
su!#erged. I7 cli#ate change displaces 1.( #illion people and
causes 7looding to historic sites6 there is still no cause 7or alar#
!ecause it )ill Eust !e on par )ith our o)n #a-ing.
1o6 )hat )ill an 2alar#ist3 say in response* Indeed6 the
s-eptics have a point. =o)ever6 a 7allacy in the s-eptics&
argu#ent is that they ta-e the position o7 a disinterested third
party and proclai#6 people )ill adEust6 and the sho) )ill go on.
It is li-e saying that it is o-ay to 7lood your house every year
!ecause )hen that !eco#es too annoying 7or you or too li7e
threatening 7or you6 you )ill #ove a)ay or !uild so#ething.
=o)ever6 )ould you rather not to have your ho#e 7looded*
"ould you rather not to have to #ove* A second 7allacy in the
s-eptics& argu#ent is that despite corruptions that inevita!ly
occurred in any govern#ental action Cthe 2/ig 0ig3 proEect in
/oston co#es to #indD6 the displace#ent o7 1.( #illion people
in the %hree orges 0a# proEect )as an organi<ed
displace#ent that )as scheduled. A lot o7 people )ere unhappy
a!out it !ecause o7 7airness issues6 !ut a lot )ere re)arded )ith
lo)er electricity cost and Eo!s. .n the other hand6 uncontrolled
7looding 7ro# @other Nature !ecause o7 glo!al )ar#ing
cannot !e scheduled. Neither can droughts nor dry river!eds.
You )ould rather not to have to deal )ith those.
(hi$h is harder*
I have every con7idence that the hu#an species )ill survive
even i7 the car!on dio'ide level rises to 1000 pp# and i7 the
earth )ar#s up !y 8
o
C. %he sho) )ill go on. /ut at the sa#e
ti#e6 I a# also con7ident that the hu#an race )ill survive i7 )e
institute a progra# to gradually phase out 7ossil 7uel !ased
energy sources and replace the# )ith rene)a!le energies6
despite !eing #ore e'pensive in the short ter#. %he 9uestion is
)hich one is harder on us? a possi!le sudden cli#ate pattern
redistri!ution or #ore e'pensive energy* Can )e a77ord it*
An7ortunately6 the group o7 people )ho )ill !e paying 7or
#ore e'pensive rene)a!le energies is not the sa#e group )ho
)ill have to #ove !ecause o7 7loods in the 7uture6 or have to
2adEust3 !ecause o7 cli#ate pattern re+distri!ution. %he people
)ho )ill !e paying #ore e'pensive energy are the ones )ho
are currently living. %he people )ho )ill have to deal )ith
7loods and droughts #ay not even have !een !orn yet. I7 you
don&t e'ist6 you don&t get to vote. 1i#ple as that.
>or those )ho resist the #ore e'pensive rene)a!le energy
no)6 can you !la#e the#* A7ter all6 these people are hu#ans6
and hu#ans are !orn to loo- a7ter the#selves. /esides the
sel7ish gene that )e all have6 a co##on hu#an !elie7 is that i7
it does not hurt6 do not 7i' it. 4ust li-e the person )ho )as
intervie)ed on the street a!out )earing high heels6 2"hen I
develop heart pro!le#s6 I )ill thin- a!out it.3 2Right no) I a#
Eust 7ine.3 2%han- you very #uch.3 4ust li-e Ne) Yor- @ayor
@ichael /loo#!erg said6 2No!ody cares or !elieves )hat is
going to happen 80 years 7ro# no).3
%i#ing is indeed a pro!le#. ,eople cannot i#agine their lives
so 7ar out in the 7uture. Not 7or the#selves6 and not 7or their
children. Jven i7 glo!al )ar#ing #ay !e !ad Cuse )hatever
#easure you #ay useD6 it #ay !e good 7or your child. Your
child #ay !e the head o7 an e#ergency response tea# in the
7uture6 and the e'istence o7 that position is a direct result o7 the
#ore severe disasters caused !y glo!al )ar#ing. %hat is Eo!
security 7or your child6 than-s to glo!al )ar#ing. "ith so
#any #oving parts6 the 7uture is Eust too di77icult 7or #ost
people to i#agine. @ost people stay put.
lo!al )ar#ing is a value Eudg#ent pro!le#6 a pro!le# that
has no o!Eective ans)ers.
No )onder no one is going to convince anyone else. I7 you
don&t !elieve in glo!al )ar#ing or the ris-s that )e are
su!Eecting ourselves to6 this !oo- is not going to change your
#ind. /ut i7 you do6 this !oo- is redundant.
Con$l#sion on 'lobal (arming
4ust as I clai#ed at the !eginning o7 the !oo-6 glo!al )ar#ing
is a value Eudg#ent pro!le# and value Eudg#ent pro!le#s
usually do not have clean solutions. 4ust li-e )hat the legal
drin-ing age should !e6 i7 you are co##itted to your o)n
opinion6 no one can prove you )rong. I7 you are o7 the opinion
that glo!al )ar#ing is har#less6 no one can prove you )rong.
%he hu#an species as a )hole is not going to die out !ecause
o7 glo!al )ar#ing6 though #any are going to !e a77ected6 so#e
in positive )ays6 and #any in negative )ays. =o)ever6
govern#ents do e'ist to #a-e rules6 rules such as the legal
drin-ing age. I7 enough people perceive glo!al )ar#ing as a
threat6 even si#ply !ecause o7 the uncertainties associated )ith
it6 govern#ents )ill #a-e rules to put a pre#iu# on those
uncertainties. In the !usiness )orld6 uncertainties are ris-s.
.ne #itigates !usiness uncertainties !y hedging your !et or
!uying insurance coverage. Ancertainties co##and a
pre#iu#. Insurance co#panies lo)er your uncertainties6 !ut
charge you 7or the pre#iu#. I7 enough people perceive glo!al
)ar#ing as a ris- 7actor6 so#ething )ill !e done. /ut right
no)6 a lot o7 people have not co#e to see glo!al )ar#ing as a
ris-6 at least not in the A1. /ut there is no telling )hen the
pu!lic opinion )ill shi7t. .ne severe continental drought #ay
cause it. .ne super+si<ed hurricane a77ecting hal7 o7 the Anited
1tates #ay do it. As the 7re9uency and severity o7 e'tre#e
)eather events go up6 the li-elihood o7 a pu!lic opinion shi7t is
!ound to go up as )ell. 1o is the li-elihood o7 govern#ental
regulations. %he ris- 7or people )ho do not reali<e that this can
happen is that they are going to !e -noc-ed o77+guard
co#pletely. Any sensi!le !usiness should have a contingency
plan in the event o7 a pu!lic opinion shi7t. /ut i7 your !usiness
is entirely !ased on 7ossil 7uels6 then the !est you can do is to
help delay the day o7 this pu!lic opinion shi7t. And this is
e'actly )hat the /ig .ils are doing. >or the rest o7 us6 have a
plan in place. It )ill serve you )ell. I7 sudden cli#ate
redistri!ution does not get you 7irst6 govern#ent regulations
)ill.
Part "" ) Peak)Oil
The Oil Boom
2>orth +akota's )il .oo$ Strains 3ts 3nfrastructure63 reads
one headline in the 4an (06 2012 issue o7 /loo#!erg
/usiness)ee- #aga<ine. A sudden oil !oo#6 triggered !y the
develop#ent o7 traditionally e'pensive shale oil6 no) #ade
pro7ita!le !y the high oil price and ne) e'traction techni9ue6
has strained a s#all to)n "illiston on its in7rastructure to a
!rea-ing point. 22e ha(e @ wells' #he% tell $e there,s going
to &e <, $ore in fi(e %ears,3 says 0ave =yne-6 the
@ountrail co##issioner6 in the /usiness)ee- article. 23t
scares the hell out of $e'3 In the .pen Re#ar-s o7 the sa#e
issue o7 /usiness)ee-6 Eournalist Charles Kenny )rote6
25(er%thing Eou Know 6&out 9eak-oil 3s 2rong - 2e,re not
running out of resources' Fuite the contrar%' 6nd in our
a&undance lies a parado-'3
%he parado' Kenny re7erred to is the )orsening o7 glo!al
)ar#ing !ecause o7 too #uch oil. I thin- he is #ista-en in the
2too #uch oil3 part6 and I )ill atte#pt to sho) you )hy.
Indeed6 in the #iddle o7 an oil !oo#6 )e so#eti#es get a
7eeling o7 dro)ning in oil6 especially i7 you are in "illiston.
/ut )hen one loo-s at the L1 crude oil spot price6 another
story e#erges. .il price is still stuc- at N100U per !arrel level
)hen I put these )ords do)n. %hat is e'actly )hy it triggers an
oil !oo# in North 0a-ota in the 7irst place. In another issue o7
/loo#!erg /usiness)ee- in 20126 in the article #he $an who
&ought >orth +akota6 reporter /ryan ruley )rote o7 the
/a--en >or#ation that contains the shale oil6 26fter its
disco(er% in the 1G4s, the for$ation produced so$e &oo$lets,
&ut it resisted de(elop$ent &ecause the rock is so co$pressed
and its oiliest slices are as thin as 1 to 14 feet' :rude was so
difficult to e-tract that oil prices had to &e at least ;4 to ;< a
&arrel to $ake it worthwhile'3
No)6 )ith oil price a!ove N1006 2the #an )ho !ought North
0a-ota3 =arold . =a## has hit it !ig. %he co#pany that he
controls6 Continental Resources6 is e'pected to generate N1.5L
!illion in the year 20116 according to the article. I7 )e ta-e
crude oil price to !e N100 per !arrel6 it )ould #ean Continental
Resources is pu#ping out 15 #illion !arrels o7 oil per year. It
see#s li-e a lot. /ut )hen you put that 7igure side !y side
against the 50 #illion !arrels the )orld consu#es every 0AY6
15 #illion !arrels per YJAR is really Eust a drop in the !uc-et.
/ut then6 ho) did Charles Kenny reach the conclusion that
5(er%thing Eou Know 6&out 9eak-oil 3s 2rong1
=ere is )hat Kenny )rote6 2For e(er% &arrel of oil produced
in the world fro$ 2? to 2G, 1'< &arrels of new reser(es
were added' #he 2orld 5nerg% :ouncil reports that glo&al
pro(en reco(era&le reser(es of natural gas li*uids and crude
oil a$ounted to 1'2 trillion &arrels in 21' #hat,s enough to
last another 3@ %ears at current usage' 6dd in shale oil, and
that,s an additional 4'@ trillion &arrels, or a centur% and a
half,s worth of suppl% at present usage rates' #ar sands,
including so$e huge :anadian deposits, add perhaps < trillion
&arrels $ore'3
%hat is )hat )e call a!undanceO
In a sense Kenny )as right a!out the increasing crude oil
reserves. 1ho)n !elo) is the -no)n crude oil reserves !y
region6 in #illion !arrels6 ta-en 7ro# .,JC&s 21H211
5dition of 6nnual Statistical .ulletin?
9In !illion !arrels:
200L 2005 200G 200; 2010
North A#erica 25 2L 2L 2: 2:
Latin A#erica 12: 1(5 210 2:; ((8
Jastern Jurope 12; 12; 12; 12; 12;
"estern Jurope 18 18 1: 1: 1:
@iddle Jast 588 581 582 582 5;:
A7rica 11G 121 122 12: 125
Asia and ,aci7ic :1 :0 :0 :: :8
%otal )orld 1620
;
1621
;
162;
:
16((
L
16:L5
I7 the in7or#ation here is accurate6 since 20056 the )orld&s
crude oil reserves have increased !y #ore than 200 !illion
!arrels6 al#ost 1BL o7 the original -no)n reserves6 al#ost all
co#ing 7ro# Fene<uela6 al#ost tripling Fene<uela&s reserves
in three years 7ollo)ing 2005.
Again6 i7 the in7or#ation is accurate6 the )orld no) has 1.8
trillion !arrels o7 technically recovera!le oil Cthat is the
de7inition o7 2oil reserves3D6 0.( trillion !arrels #ore than )hat
Kenny )rote do)n. /ut )hat is 2oil reserves3*
As Ro!ert L. =irsh )rote in a report pu!lished in 2008 titled
#he 3ne(ita&le 9eaking of 2orld )il 9roduction6 2)il reser(es
are in so$e wa%s like in(entor% in a &usiness, &ut the analog%
can &e decei(ing' IReser(es, is an esti$ate of the a$ount of oil
in an oil field that can &e e-tracted at an assu$ed cost' #hus, a
higher oil price outlook often $eans that $ore oil can &e
produced' 0owe(er, geological realities place an upper li$it
on price-dependent reser(es growth'3
In the Anited 1tates6 the oil that is potentially there can only !e
counted as reserves i7 there is ;0H chance that the oil can !e
e'tracted econo#ically. .ther)ise6 it is Eust potential
resources. %his is the so+called ,1 standard Cso#e people call it
,;06 re7erring to the ;0H con7idence levelD. =o)ever6 i7 you
also include those that are only 80H li-ely to !e recovered6 the
possi!le ones6 Cthat is the ,2 standard6 also -no)n as ,80D6
then )hat you #ean !y reserves is very di77erent 7ro# so#eone
)ho uses the ,1 standard. And i7 you assu#e the ,( standard6
then you are including those that are only recovera!le at 10H
li-elihood Cthat&s )hy ,( is also -no)n as ,10D. And there is
no )orld)ide standard that de7ines )hat a country can report
as reserves. .r i7 there is any standard6 it is ignored. Russia is
allegedly using the ,( standard6 !ut the practice is not )idely
announced. %he gro)th o7 oil reserves so#eti#es is Eust a
result o7 re+categori<ation6 either due to real ne) con7ir#ation
o7 previously possi!le resources6 or a change o7 reporting
practices o7 individual countries6 or a change o7 outloo-
!ecause the oil price is no) high enough 7or the e'traction to
!e pro7ita!le.
"orld reserves have indeed gro)n since =irsh put do)n his
)ords in 2008 i7 you use the .,JC nu#!ers6 !ut the
geological realities have not changed.
Let&s Eust ta-e the nu#!ers in the .,JC report at 7ace value6
and co#!ine the# )ith the nu#!ers in >ig. 256 )e )ill co#e
to the conclusion that the current total )orld reserves )ill last
through 208: i7 our consu#ption o7 oil -eeps gro)ing
7ollo)ing the trend o7 the last (0 years6 and the value o7 the
)orld reserves does not gro). =o)ever6 there are uncertainties
in !oth directions.
>ig. 25
Do#bt abo#t a$t#al world reser1es
.n the negative side6 there have !een serious dou!ts a!out the
actual )orld oil reserves. %a-e 7or e'a#ple6 on >e! 2L o7 20126
the article on 2oil reserves3 in "i-ipedia has this description?
#here are dou&ts a&out the relia&ilit% of official )95:
reser(es esti$ates, which are not pro(ided with an% for$
of audit or (erification that $eet e-ternal reporting
standards'
Since a s%ste$ of countr% production *uotas was
introduced in the 1G@s, partl% &ased on reser(es le(els,
there ha(e &een dra$atic increases in reported reser(es
a$ong )95: producers' 3n 1G@3, Kuwait increased its
pro(en reser(es fro$ <? 7&&l J1'?K1
G
$
3
L to G2 7&&l
J14'<K1
G
$
3
L' 3n 1G@4M@<, the "65 al$ost tripled its
reser(es fro$ 33 7&&l J4'2K1
G
$
3
L to G? 7&&l
J14'4K1
G
$
3
L' Saudi 6ra&ia raised its reported reser(e
nu$&er in 1G@@ &% 4N' 3n 21M2, 3ran raised its pro(en
reser(es &% so$e 3N to 13 7&&l J21K1
G
$
3
L, which
ad(anced it to second place in reser(es and ahead of 3ra*'
3ran denied accusations of a political $oti(e &ehind the
read=ust$ent, attri&uting the increase instead to a
co$&ination of new disco(eries and i$pro(ed reco(er%' >o
details were offered of how an% of the upgrades were
arri(ed at'
#he sudden re(isions in )95: reser(es, totaling nearl%
3 &n &arrels, ha(e &een $uch de&ated' So$e of it is
defended partl% &% the shift in ownership of reser(es awa%
fro$ international oil co$panies, so$e of who$ were
o&liged to report reser(es under conser(ati(e "S
Securities and 5-change :o$$ission rules' #he $ost
pro$inent e-planation of the re(isions is pro$pted &% a
change in )95: rules which set production *uotas Jpartl%L
on reser(es' 3n an% e(ent, the re(isions in official data had
little to do with the actual disco(er% of new reser(es'
#otal reser(es in $an% )95: countries hardl% changed in
the 1GGs' )fficial reser(es in Kuwait, for e-a$ple, were
unchanged at G<'4 7&&l J14'34K1
G
$
3
L Jincluding its
share of the >eutral OoneL fro$ 1GG1 to 22, e(en though
the countr% produced $ore than @ 7&&l J1'3K1
G
$
3
L and
did not $ake an% i$portant new disco(eries during that
period' #he case of Saudi 6ra&ia is also striking, with
pro(en reser(es esti$ated at &etween 2< and 2<4 &illion
&arrels J4'2K1
1
$
3
L in the past 1@ %ears, a (ariation of
less than 2N, while e-tracting appro-i$atel% < &illion
&arrels JG'4K1
G
$
3
L during this period'
Sadad al-0useini, for$er head of e-ploration and
production at Saudi 6ra$co, esti$ates 3 7&&l
J4@K1
G
$
3
L of the world's 1,2 7&&l J1GK1
G
$
3
L of
pro(en reser(es should &e recategoriPed as speculati(e
resources, though he did not specif% which countries had
inflated their reser(es'
Q2<R
+r' 6li Sa$sa$ .akhtiari, a
for$er senior e-pert of the >ational 3ranian )il :o$pan%,
has esti$ated that 3ran, 3ra*, Kuwait, Saudi 6ra&ia and the
"nited 6ra& 5$irates ha(e o(erstated reser(es &% a
co$&ined 32M3G&n &arrels and has said, S6s for 3ran,
the usuall% accepted official 132 &illion &arrels J2'1K1
1
$
3
L is al$ost one hundred &illion o(er an% realistic assa%'S
9etroleu$ 3ntelligence 2eekl% reported that official
confidential Kuwaiti docu$ents esti$ate reser(es of
Kuwait were onl% 4@ &illion &arrels J?'<K1
G
$
3
L, of which
half were pro(en and half were possi&le' #he co$&ined
(alue of pro(en and possi&le is half of the official pu&lic
esti$ate of pro(en reser(es'
3n Aul% 211, )95:'s 6nnual Statistical Re(iew showed
CenePuela's reser(es to &e larger than Saudi 6ra&ia's'
%his article in "i-ipedia pretty #uch su##ari<ed the dou!t
e'pressed !y pea-+oil advocates. In addition6 the vice president
o7 Iran&s Ato#ic Jnergy .rgani<ation @. 1aeidi said in 200L
that Iran had 20 to (0 years o7 oil6 contradicting its o)n o77icial
reserve nu#!ers. It could !e that Iran )as trying to Eusti7y its
nuclear progra# !y re7uting their o77icial reserve nu#!ers !y
their ato#ic energy organi<ation in so#e occasions6 or it could
really !e true that the Iranian nu#!ers sho)ing up in the .,JC
report have !een e'aggerated 7or 9uota purposes. %he truth
could !e lying so#e)here in !et)een.
1o6 that )as the negative side o7 the e9uation? the dou!t a!out
actual reserves.
.n the positive side6 Eust li-e Charles Kenny )rote6 #ore
actual oil is !eing added to )orld oil reserves everyday. I7 you
loo-ed at the oil reserves o7 the Anited 1tates in 1;G06 )hich
)as a!out (0 !illion !arrels at the ti#e6 and predicted that the
A16 !ased on its daily consu#ption o7 1G #illion !arrels CL.8
!illion !arrels per yearD and i#porting hal7 o7 that 7ro#
outside6 )ould run out o7 its o)n oil in 10 years6 )hich )ould
!e 1;;06 you )ould !e very )rong. %he reason is that the A1
-ept adding oil into the 2reserves3 category. Ne) discoveries
aside6 the A1 7ollo)s the conservative ,1 standard6 )hich
#eans a co#pany cannot declare the oil that it has the right to
as reserves i7 it cannot !e sure )ith !etter than ;0H certainty
that it can econo#ically recovers it. %here7ore6 the initial
esti#ate is usually lo). Jven )ithout ne) discovery6
corrections to the past underesti#ation o7 old oils can already
increase the reserve nu#!er year a7ter year. 1ince 1;G06 the A1
has e'tracted 5: !illion !arrels o7 oil 7ro# its crude reserves
CJIA dataD6 !ut its reserves only decreased !y 10 !illion
!arrels6 do)n 7ro# (0 !illion to 20 !illion !arrels. %hat #eans
over this (0+year period6 L: !illions !arrels have !een added to
the reserves category. %hat is6 on average6 2 !illion !arrels per
year. %he chart !elo) sho)s the actual nu#!er added to the
reserves recently Cnu#!ers 7ro# JIAD6
>ig. 2G
%he recent rate o7 adding to the reserves is around one !illion
!arrels every year. %his rate has dropped 7ro# the average o7 2
!illion !arrels per year over the last (0 years. %his rate )ill
drop 7urther i7 not !ecause o7 the shale oil6 )hich is creating a
little !oo# right no).
Oil dis$o1ery rate and ba$kdating
=o)ever6 ho) #uch longer can )e -eep adding oil into the
reserves category* .pinions diverge6 depending on )hat
evidence you choose to loo- at. /elo) in >ig. 2; is a pretty
)ell -no)n graph sho)ing the si<e o7 the oil 7ields plotted
against the ti#e )hen they )ere 7irst discovered.
>ig. 2;
I7 )e ta-e this graph and interpret it at 7ace value6 everyone
)ill co#e to the sa#e conclusion? )e are running out o7 oil and
the discovery rate is declining rapidly. 4ust loo- at the pea- o7
the !ars6 it is at 1;L8. A7ter that6 )e have !een 7inding less and
less oil. At the sa#e ti#e6 e'traction rate -eeps cli#!ing Cthe
2,roduction3 curveD. J'traction rate has overta-en discovery
rate in late 1;G0&s and early 1;;0&s.
=o)ever6 the reality sho)n in this graph needs a little !it #ore
interpretation. %he )ay this graph )as constructed )as !y the
so+called 2!ac-+dating3 #ethod. "hen an oil 7ield )as 7irst
discovered6 the esti#ated oil reserves in the 7ield is usually
#ore conservative Cs#allerD !ecause reserves are so#ething
that you can con7idently e'tract. As ti#e goes !y6 )hen #ore
)ells have !een drilled6 the reserve nu#!er is li-ely to !e
revised up)ard. All the su!se9uent discoveries that are related
to this oil 7ield )ill !e !ac-dated to the ti#e )hen this oil 7ield
)as 7irst discovered. /ecause o7 this !ac-dating6 the reserve o7
an oil 7ield tends to gro) over ti#e. An older oil 7ield is #ore
li-ely to appear !igger than a si#ilar ne) 7ield !ecause a ne)
one has yet to 2gro)3. Critics argue that !ecause o7 !ac-dating6
this graph has #isrepresented the rate o7 discovery.
/rent >isher tried to correct 7or this pro!le# in his 200G article
2Re(iew and 6nal%sis of the 9eak-oil +e&ate36 a )or- done
under an Institute o7 0e7ense Analysis central research proEect6
!y using a 7or#ula that Laherrere C2001D used6 and ca#e up
)ith this 7ollo)ing chart?
>ig. (0
%he !lac- !ars are the corrected values6 hope7ully re7lecting the
esti#ate o7 the oil 7ield si<e at the ti#e o7 discovery6 so that )e
are co#paring apples to apples. ,otential pro!le#s )ith this
correction is t)o7old? 1D the 7or#ula used "RRJ tL = (1+ 0.05
Ct tLL "RR JtL )here ARRCtD is the Alti#ate
Recovera!le Resource value at ti#e t and t0 the ti#e o7
discovery6 #ay not !e correct in general6 and 2D there #ay !e
an under+correction 7or ne) 7ields !ecause the esti#ate at the
ti#e o7 discovery 7or ne)er 7ields #ay !e getting #ore and
#ore accurate !ecause o7 the advance in technology6 thus
#a-ing the 2potential gro)th3 s#aller than that o7 an older
7ield.
/ut let&s 7or the #o#ent assu#e that the correction is correct
and e'a#ine its i#plications. >irst o7 all6 it i#plies that the
discovery rate6 Eudging 7ro# the a#ount o7 the initial esti#ates6
has !een 9uite constant over ti#e since the 1;80s6 despite
advance#ent in technology. "ith a constant discovery rate !ut
the e'traction rate gro)ing6 the reserves gro)th rate )ill
eventually stop )hen the depletion rate catches up )ith the
discovery rate. %he point at )hich depletion rate catches up
)ith discovery rate is actually no)6 despite so#e !ig recent
up)ard revision in the )orld reserves. %his point can !e
arrived at !y the 7ollo)ing o!servation. "e -no) )e have so
7ar e'tracted one trillion !arrels o7 oil since the da)n o7
#odern history. "ith 1.: trillion !arrel still in the reserves CEust
assu#e the .,JC 7igure )ithout 9uestioningD6 )e have
2discovered3 2.: trillion !arrels o7 oil in the past G0 years
C#ost oil )as discovered in the last G0 yearsD6 that put the
steady rate o7 oil discovery at 2.: trillion !arrels per G0 years6
or 0.2: trillion per G years6 or (0 !illion per year. Right no)6
our oil e'tract rate is (0 !illion !arrels per year )orld)ide. .ur
consu#ption rate has caught up )ith our discovery rate6
assu#ing )e can -eep up the discovery rate.
/ut i7 )e allo) 7or the possi!ility that the corrections 7or ne)
oil 7ields are #ore than )arranted6 #eaning that )e have over+
corrected the recent discoveries6 then the rate o7 discovery
)ould have declined and our rate o7 discovery )ould have
pea-ed.
-eser1es and Prod#$tion -ate
"hile 2reserves3 is one thing6 production rate Cho) a!out
calling it )hat it is? e'traction rate* "e don&t produce oil. "e
e'tract it 7ro# the earthD is another. Jven i7 reserves stay at a
constant level6 or even gro)6 depending on the 9uality o7 those
reserves6 production rates can still drop. %he Anited 1tates still
has 1; !illion !arrels in its reserves as o7 20106 nonetheless6 its
production rate has dropped 7ro# (.( !illion !arrels per year in
1;G8 to around 2 !illion !arrels per year in 2010 CJIA data6 see
>igure 2; !elo)D.
>ig. (1
"hy the drop* It is not li-e you are running out o7 oil. %here
are still plenty. /ut the !ig )ells o7 the gushing !ig oil 7ields
had !een replaced !y #any tric-ling s#aller )ells. Reserves
#ay #aintain at a level )hen #ore harder+to+get oils are re+
categori<ed as reserves6 !ut the e'traction rate #ay not. %he
e'traction o7 the last portions o7 the reserves are usually harder
and #ore energy intensive. It can there7ore drive up the overall
energy consu#ption6 even Eust to #aintain the sa#e level o7
production. ,ea-+oil can occur )hile there is still plenty o7 oil.
It is all a!out supply and de#and6 production rate versus
consu#ption rate.
Shale Oil
%al-ing a!out !eing energy intensive6 let&s tal- a!out shale oil6
)hich Charles Kenny )rote a!out in the /usiness)ee- piece
#ista-enly. "hy #ista-enly* Kenny has con7used shale oil
)ith oil shale. "orld)ide oil shale reserves #ay reach :.G
trillion !arrels e9uivalence Ce'tracting at )hat cost*D6 !ut shale
oil de7initely does not.
1o6 )hat is the di77erence !et)een shale oil and oil shale*
1hale oil is conventional crude oil loc-ed up in unconventional
shale plays such as the /a--en >or#ation in the Roc-ies6 )hile
oil shale is a geological precursor to crude oil )hich is still in
roc-s -no)n as -erogen. In several #illion years& ti#e and
)ith high enough te#perature6 nature )ill turn the hydrocar!on
co#ponents o7 -erogen into conventional crude oil. =o)ever6
to turn -erogen into use7ul 7uel pre#aturely no)6 one has to
arti7icially age it !y very high te#perature and pressure and the
process is e'tre#ely energy intensive. You #ay end up using
0.; !arrels o7 oil e9uivalence 7or every !arrel that you e'tract
to 7uel the process itsel7 and it can !e an environ#ental
night#are. .n the other hand6 shale oil is Eust crude oil6 loc-ed
up deep underground6 still 9uite e'pensive to get to6 !ut at least
accessi!le )ith the ne)ly developed 7rac-ing techni9ue and
hori<ontal drilling used to drill 7or natural gas. %his -ind o7
crude oil6 the shale oil6 has not !een counted as part o7 the
crude oil reserves !ecause it )as once upon a ti#e too di77icult
to get to. /ut once they are con7ir#ed6 they )ill !e
continuously re+categori<ed as reserves6 as the Anited 1tates
has. %he Anited 1tates Jnergy In7or#ation Ad#inistration
CJIAD has co##issioned a study to esti#ate the potential
a#ount o7 shale oil Cnote? these are not reserves6 !ut potential
resourcesD the A1 has and the result )as pu!lished in a report
titled 2Re(iew of 5$erging ResourcesD "'S' Shale )il and
Shale 7as 9la%s3 in 4uly o7 2011. In this report6 it is esti#ated
that the lo)er :G A1 1tates has a total o7 2: !illion !arrels o7
recovera!le crude oil6 o7 )hich the !iggest one is in the /a--en
>or#ation o7 the Roc-y @ountains. ,lease !e re#inded that
this a#ount is the esti#ated total6 though not 9uite the ulti#ate
geological reality6 !ut )ay #ore than 2reserves3 in nor#al
sense. .nly i7 all o7 the# are con7ir#ed to !e e'tracta!le
pro7ita!ly6 one can e'pect to see the 7uture A1 reserves gro)n
!y 2: !illion !arrels.
=o)ever6 )ith the consu#ption rate o7 1G #illion !arrels per
day 7or the A1 alone6 2: !illion !arrels )ill last 1800 days6
)hich is a!out : years. 1o6 )ith these shale oils6 )e )ill last
7our years longer. I7 you put this against the )orld)ide
consu#ption o7 2L !illion !arrels per year6 then these 2: !illion
!arrels )ill last 7or only a year 7or the entire )orld. "hat an
e'cite#entO
%he e'cite#ent o7 shale oil is only that it is an indicator that
the rate o7 adding oil to the reserves category #ay increase
again since no) )e can tap into the shale plays that )ere once
o77 li#it !ecause o7 high cost and lo) oil price. %he rate #ay
go !ac- to 2 !illion !arrels additional reserves !eing added
every year. =o)ever6 no #atter ho) #uch you add per year6
you only have a total o7 2: !illion !arrels #ore to add. .nce
these have all !een considered6 your reserves addition rate )ill
drop again.
.ne point )e should not overloo- here? the availa!ility o7 shale
oil is !uilt upon the sustaining high oil price. %hat #eans6 i7 )e
are tapping into shale oil6 the oil price is already high to !egin
)ith. .ther)ise the oil loc-ed inside those shale plays )ill not
!e econo#ically co#petitive. .il price is high !ecause de#and
has outpaced supply. %he original de7inition o7 pea-+oil is the
pea-ing o7 the )orld)ide oil e'traction rate6 i#plying that
2production3 rate )ill drop 7ro# this point on. =o)ever6
another alternative de7inition o7 pea-+oil can !e the point )hen
oil price start to rise out o7 control !ecause de#and has si#ply
outpaced supply. %his point can reach sooner !ecause o7 the
strong #o#entu# o7 oil de#and increase due to the gro)th o7
)orld 0,6 especially 7ro# the gro)th in China and India.
Oil Shale
No)6 let&s tal- a!out the !adly #isunderstood oil shale.
According to so#e esti#ate6 )orld )ide oil shale can
potentially produce up to :.G trillion !arrels o7 li9uid 7uel6 as
Kenny )rote in /usiness)ee- #aga<ine. =o)ever6 to e'tract
the# is not a )al- in the par-. Ap until no)6 no oil co#pany
has !een a!le to e'tract oil 7ro# oil shale pro7ita!ly6 given the
A1N100U crude oil price. At issue here is the -erogen. %hese
are roc-s that contain the hydrocar!on that )e need as 7uel in
the oil shale. %hey are so#ething that you can !urn directly6
li-e coal6 !ut they )ill !e useless 7or use as 7uels 7or
transportations6 )hich is al#ost 50H o7 the usage o7 all
petroleu# in the Anited 1tates goes into. %o use these -erogen
roc-s li-e oil6 one )ill need to process it. I7 you Eust )ant to
!urn the#6 you #ight Eust as )ell !urn coal. %o get oil6 the
hydrocar!on content o7 these -erogens can !e 7irst aged to
#aturity !y pyrolysis6 7or e'a#ple. /ut the e'traction process
is so energy intensive and environ#entally un7riendly that so
7ar6 no one is a!le to do it econo#ically. %here is a saying that
2oil shale is the energy o7 the 7uture6 and it )ill al)ays !e3.
/arring a technological !rea-through6 )hich is so#ething that
no reasona!le hu#an should count on6 Eust as no reasona!le
hu#an should count on )inning a lottery as the #eans o7
supporting 7uture living6 oil shale is not going to #a-e too
#uch o7 an i#pact in our pea-+oil discussion.
Oil Sands
No)6 let&s turn to the last hope o7 hu#an-ind? oil sands. In a
7ull page advertise#ent titled 2>orthward, look, the land is
&right3 on ,age : o7 the 4une 116 2012 issue o7 /loo#!erg
/usiness)ee- #aga<ine6 the advertise#entBarticle stated6 2#he
e$ergence of :anada as an energ%-e-porting giant owes $uch
to the tar sands of 6l&erta, which, with an esti$ated 1'?
trillion to 2'4 trillion &arrels underground, offer a greater
potential oil suppl% than the rest of the world co$&ined' .ased
on the sands, at current production rates :anada has 1?4
%ears of re$aining crude oil reser(es'3 It paints a very rosy
picture 7or oil&s 7uture. %o put that into perspective6 the current
)orld oil reserves are 1.8 trillion !arrels. An additional 1.5 to
2.8 trillion !arrels in the 7or# o7 tar sands6 )ill dou!le the
)orld oil reserves overnight. %hat is a!undantO
/ut o7 course6 Eust li-e #ost advertise#ents6 it only tells hal7 o7
the story that it )ants you to hear. Another hal7 o7 the story is
that o7 these 1.5 to 2.8 trillion !arrels underground6 only 15:
!illion !arrels can !e classi7ied as reserves6 according to the
IJA report pu!lished here? http?BB))).iea.orgBpapersBsecurityB
canadaM2010.pd7. %he total potential ulti#ately recovera!le oil
is esti#ated to !e (18 !illion !arrels6 according to the sa#e
report. At #a'i#u#6 (18 !illion !arrels is )hat )e can get.
%he rest are irrecovera!le oil6 either !ecause o7 technology or
!ecause o7 cost Ci7 so#e o7 these underground oils ta-e
A1N106000 to e'tract per !arrel6 I don&t thin- you should
consider that portion recovera!leD.
(18 !illion !arrels6 though greatly reduced6 is still 9uite
si<ea!le. I7 all these ulti#ately recovera!le oil are indeed
recovera!le6 it increases the )orld reserves !y 20H.
=o)ever6 tar sand is a -ind o7 unconventional oil. It is super
heavy hydrocar!on #i'ed )ith sand. Its high viscosity #a-es it
una!le to 7lo) at nor#al te#perature. 1o it has to !e processed
on+site. %o e'tract one gallon o7 crude oil e9uivalence 7ro# tar
sand6 you need to !urn a!out 0.(8 gallon o7 crude oil
e9uivalence i7 you use the tar sand directly as 7uel to do the
processing. J77ectively6 every gallon you e'tract out o7 the
ground6 0.( gallons ended up in s#o-e. 1o6 o7 the (18 !illon
ulti#ately recovera!le !arrels6 you end up only getting 200
!illion !arrels or so6 )hich is another reduction. Right no)6 the
energy needed to process tar sand into crude oil e9uivalence
co#es 7ro# !urning natural gas. /ut you still )aste so #uch
energy to e'tract a gallon o7 crude co#pared )ith other
sources. 4ust li-e shale oil6 tar sand cannot !e e'tracted
econo#ically i7 crude oil price is lo). /ut )hen the crude oil
price is high6 this e'tra source can help prevent oil price 7ro#
spi-ing into the stratosphere !ecause oil e'traction rate )ill
increase !ecause o7 this e'tra source -ic-ing in. No) it has
-ic-ed in.
Con$l#sion on !eak)oil
1o6 are )e at pea-+oil no)* Not yet6 i7 you use the traditional
de7inition o7 pea-+oil6 that is the highest possi!le e'traction
rate6 7ro# that point on the e'traction rate )ill only decline.
"e still have e'pensive oils that )e can try to e'tract. I7 the
)orld reserves nu#!ers are real6 )e are not there yet. .ur
e'traction rate can still increase i7 oil price goes even higher.
=o)ever6 i7 )e thin- o7 pea-+oil as the point )hen glo!al
de#and has outpaced supply6 I thin- )e are already there. I7
the reserves nu#!ers reported !y #any oil+e'porting countries
are in7lated6 then )e are )ay over pea-+oil. "e #ay even 7all
o77 an oil cli77 in so#e not+too+distant 7uture.
/ut no #atter )hat6 the days o7 cheap oil are over.
=o)ever6 it does not #ean oil price )ill never te#porarily
drop !ac- to a previous level. "e sa) it right a7ter the
econo#ic collapse in 200G. %he current high oil de#and is in
large part driven !y the increase in de#and 7ro# China. "ith
the Juro crisis loo#ing6 er#any and so#e #e#!ers o7 the
Juropean Anion in gridloc-6 and an upco#ing Chinese
econo#ic slo)do)n6 the de#and on oil has roo# to decline
te#porary i7 the glo!al econo#y runs out o7 lu!ricant again.
/ut that should not !e con7used )ith the long+ter# trend o7
de#and outpacing supply. .ur de#and has outpaced supply.
%hat&s )hy oil price has stayed up 7or so long. I7 oil price stays
high consistently6 it is actually a good thing. It drives us to
e'plore alternative sources o7 energy in a #ore leisure #anner.
@ost atte#pts to replace oil have so 7ar 7ailed. "hy* /ecause
o7 lo) oil price and its volatility. 4ust )hen so#ething loo-ed
pro#ising6 the 7inancial !otto# 7ell out !ecause oil )as cheap
again. I7 there is indeed an oil cli77 a)aiting us6 and i7
alternative energy sources cannot !e developed in ti#e6 then
)e are really in 7or a shoc-. /ut i7 oil price stays high6 at least6
)e have a chance in 7inding so#ething to replace oil earlier.
"hether you !elieve in glo!al )ar#ing or not6 pea-+oil 7orces
you to thin- a!out the need to develop alternative energies.
=igh oil price changes our !ehavior. I7 there indeed is an oil
cli77 )aiting 7or us !ecause )e get our reserves nu#!ers
arti7icially in7lated6 higher oil price no) can help us !etter deal
)ith the cli776 #a-ing a potentially very pain7ul transition less
pain7ul.
Oil mostly ae$ts trans!ortation, why are we talking abo#t
solar !anels*
According to 6nnual 5nerg% Re(iew 21 released in .cto!er
o7 2011 !y the 0epart#ent o7 Jnergy and Jnergy In7or#ation
Ad#inistration W0.JBJIA+0(G:C2010D6 oogle this docu#ent
nu#!er i7 you )ant to get a copy o7 it 7or yoursel7X6 petroleu#
accounted 7or (5H o7 the total energy consu#ption in the
Anited 1tates in 20106 )ith #aEority C51HD o7 petroleu# going
into the transportation sector. %he rest goes to industrial
consu#ption C22HD6 and co##ercial and residential uses C8HD.
I7 oil !eco#es precious and e'pensive6 the sector that is
a77ected #ost )ill !e the transportation sector. %his is
particularly true in the Anited 1tates as the #aEor #ode o7
transportation is private passenger vehicles. 1o )hy are )e
tal-ing a!out solar energy*
At this point6 there is no alternative to gasoline or diesel 7or
private passenger vehicles !ecause o7 petroleu#&s super!
energy content per unit )eight. /attery technology is still a
distant second i7 people&s driving ha!it stays unchanged. %hat
#eans6 )hen petroleu# !eco#es e'pensive6 the transportation
sector o7 the Anited 1tates )ill !e 7orced into a trans7or#ation.
Antil !attery technology !eco#es good enough6 the electricity
generated !y solar panels cannot !e used to replace petroleu#.
/ut i7 there is really not enough cheap petroleu# to go around6
people&s driving ha!it #ay change6 and people #ight Eust !e
a!le to #a-e do )ith the e'tra cheap electricity they have.
%hat&s ho) solar panels co#e into play.
"hen de#and overta-es supply6 the price usually goes up and
de#and increase )ill stop at so#e point6 and a ne)
e9uili!riu# )ill !e esta!lished. %he a#ount the price has to go
up !e7ore the de#and increase )ill stop is -no)n as the
de#and elasticity to the econo#ists. I7 a slight increase in price
can cause a lot o7 drop in de#and6 the de#and is elastic.
An7ortunately6 according to a report titled 2orld 5cono$ic
)utlook released !y the International @onetary >und in April
o7 20116 there is hardly #uch elasticity in short ter# oil
de#and curve at all. %he elasticity is only a!out $0.02. %hat
#eans6 7or a 10H increase in oil price6 it )ill only result in the
decrease o7 0.2H in de#and. In other )ords6 i7 you need oil6
you need oil no #atter )hat the price is6 short ter# spea-ing.
"ith an inelastic de#and curve6 there is a potential 7or 7uture
oil price spi-es that can cause #aEor upheavals in the econo#ic
syste#s glo!ally.
.n the other hand6 the long ter# de#and curve is so#e)hat
#ore elastic. It is al#ost 7our ti#es as elastic as the short ter#
one6 according to 2orld 5cono$ic )utlook. It is
understanda!le !ecause i7 oil price stays too high 7or an
e'tended period o7 ti#e6 people start to #ove a)ay 7ro# using
oil i7 they can. I7 it costs you a 7ortune to drive to )or-6
naturally6 you )ould #ove closer to )or- or loo- 7or )or-
closer to ho#e6 given enough ti#e to do so. I7 it costs you a
7ortune to use your diesel 7urnace to heat your house in the
)inter6 you )ould try to insulate your house !etter or s)itch to
natural gas or heat pu#p )hen you could. 1o6 naturally the
long ter# de#and curve has #uch #ore elasticity than the
short ter# curve !ecause people&s !ehavior can change. /ut
)hat sta!ili<es the oil price in the longer ter# is the availa!ility
o7 those oils that )ere once too e'pensive to e'tract? the
increase in supply !ecause o7 higher price. 1o6 even short ter#
spi-ing in price can happen6 in longer ter#6 it is not 9uite a
runa)ay situation yet6 unless our reserves nu#!ers are really
)rong6 as e'pressed !y the dou!t in that "i-ipedia article6 then
)e )ill !e 7acing an oil cli77.
As the third )orld econo#ies -eep gro)ing6 even )ith a non+
declining rate o7 oil discovery6 cheap oil is a thing o7 the past.
And that is )here electric vehicles co#e in.
"hen oil is e'pensive6 people )ill live closer to each other6
#a-ing electrical vehicles #ore use7ul despite the li#ited
ranges. "or- places )ill relocate to )here people are6 7urther
li#iting the need 7or long distance co##utes in )hich gasoline
has no su!stitutes. Cities )ill gro)6 and su!ur!s6 the concept
that #ade via!le !y cheap oil6 )ill )ither. Jlectricity po)ered
pu!lic transportation )ill e'pand6 and high)ays )ill !e
e#ptier. %he e'tra electricity 7ro# solar #ay Eust !e a!le to
step in and plays an i#portant role. =o)ever6 it )ill not !e the
photovoltaic solar panels though. I )ill tell you )hy near the
end o7 ne't section.
Solar Panels, what kind*
%he transportation sector accounts 7or 2GH o7 the total energy
consu#ption in the Anited 1tates in 2010. %he rest o7 the
energy consu#ptions go to industrial uses C20HD6 co##ercial
and residential uses C11HD6 and electricity generation C:0HD.
As o7 20106 :0H o7 industrial energy consu#ption ca#e 7ro#
petroleu# and :1H ca#e 7ro# natural gas. /ut these part o7
the energy consu#ption can readily co#e 7ro# electricity
instead o7 7ossil 7uels !ecause they #ostly involve running
#achineries6 and perhaps po)ering high te#perature 7urnaces.
=ere6 solar electricity generation can play a very i#portant
role.
=o)ever6 solar photovoltaic panels cannot yet !eco#e the
#ain source o7 electricity generation !ecause o7 the lac- o7
storage solutions and its !eing inter#ittent. "hen the sun is
shining6 you generate a lot o7 electricity and over7lo)ing the
grid )ith cheap electrons. /ut )hen a cloud #oves in6 the
po)er drop !y G0H and out o7 a sudden6 the rest o7 the grid has
to #a-e up 7or the loss Cli-e Lu-e 1-y)al-er )ould say6 2I Eust
7elt a great distur!ance in the 7orce.3D. At this point in the state
o7 technology6 )e still cannot handle the distur!ance !ecause
o7 the lac- o7 storage solutions. %he only )ay photovoltaic can
help is !y !eing an insigni7icant player so that the distur!ance
it creates does not register a !lip in the grid. Antil !attery or
other technologies that can store electricity cheaply is
developed6 photovoltaic contri!ution to our energy e9uation
has to re#ain insigni7icant. .ther)ise6 there can !e too #uch
distur!ance in the grid.
=o)ever6 this cannot !e said o7 solar ther#al electricity
generation. "hile electricity cannot !e stored cheaply6 heat
can. A 7e)+dollar ther#al !ottle can -eep your hot )ater hot
7or 2: hours6 )hile it #ay ta-e a N100+!attery to storage the
sa#e a#ount o7 energy in electricity. 1olar concentrators can
7ocus sunlight into a central ther#al collector that stays hot
overnight 7or electricity generation. %he e#asolar
concentrated solar po)er plant near 1eville6 1pain6 achieved
7ull 2:+hour electricity generation one #onth a7ter it started
co##ercial operation in 2011. e#asolar uses #olten salts to
store ther#al energy 7ro# sunlight6 and uses that to drive stea#
tur!ines to produce electricity6 day and night. As long as the
#olten salts are hot6 they can generate electricity. %he huge
ther#al capacity o7 the #olten salts #a-es s#ooth all the
inter#ittency associated )ith solar energy. 1ince it even
generates electricity a7ter the sun goes do)n6 a piece o7 cloud
shado)ing the sun te#porarily is really Eust a piece o7 ca-e.
Currently the esti#ated cost o7 electricity generated !y
e#asolar is #ore e'pensive than that generated !y a coal 7ire
po)er plant. /ut the esti#ated cost associated )ith solar
ther#al electricity generation has to do )ith the esti#ated
designed li7eti#e o7 the 7acility. %ypically they are Cassu#edD
designed 7or 28+(0 years o7 operation. =o)ever6 i7 they last
longer6 the cost esti#ate )ill !e 9uite di77erent. 0o you
re#e#!er the @ars Rovers* %hey )ere designed to last 7or Eust
;0 days. /ut a7ter G years6 they are still -ic-ing and rolling on
@ars. >or solar ther#al po)er plants6 )e #ay ended up )ith
so#e 7acilities that )ere !uilt to last 7or only 28 years6 !ut end
up lasting 7or decades longer. I7 that is the case6 the initial
esti#ated cost o7 electricity6 the so+called leveli<ed cost o7
electricity6 )hich is the a#ount the po)er generator thin- they
need to charge to cover the cost per -ilo)att+hour6 )ill !e
lo)ered than the initial esti#ate6 and the po)er generating
co#pany )ill !e overcharging the consu#ers no) and
potentially #a-e !ig pro7it )hen all the hard)are have !een
)ritten o77. "hen the 7acility operate pro7ita!ly !eyond their
designed li7eti#e6 )hen the construction cost is all paid 7or6
)hat you have is pure pro7it6 year a7ter year6 )ith the sun doing
the )or- 7or you.
%echnically spea-ing6 )ith the )orld&s #any #aEor deserts6
)here the solar irradiance is virtually guaranteed6 )e have an
over a!undance o7 electricity generation capacity )orld )ide.
=o)ever6 this sector o7 the econo#y still has to !uild up its
scale6 so that the cost o7 construction can !ene7it 7ro# the
econo#y o7 scale. Right no) this sector is still in its in7ancy6
)ith nu#!er o7 storage technologies co#peting against each
other6 a#ong the#6 the #olten salts6 and graphite. "hile the
cost o7 solar has roo# to co#e do)n6 the cost o7 coal is going
up !ecause o7 de#and. At so#e point6 coal production rate )ill
not !e a!le to -eep up )ith de#and !ecause o7 natural
population gro)th6 0, gro)th6 and the e'tra de#and co#ing
7ro# the transportation sector !ecause o7 e'pensive oil CChina
is desperate to get #ore coal out o7 the earthD. At that point6
solar ther#al electricity generation #ay !eco#e a do#inant
7orce.
Right no)6 the Anited 1tates e#its around 80 thousand
-ilogra#s Cor 100 thousand poundsD o7 #ercury into the
at#osphere !urning coal 7or electricity6 causing the
Jnviron#ent ,rotection Agency to advise against eating 7ish
7or #ore than t)ice a )ee-. Reducing coal 7ire po)er plants
can help li#it the a#ount o7 #ercury released into the
at#osphere. %his )on&t i##ediately clean up the #ercury
already in the environ#ent !ecause )hatever is out there )ill
need to cycle through the syste#6 !ut it )ill #a-e the 7uture
#ore 7ree o7 #ercury6 as an added !ene7it o7 s)itching to solar
energy.
1o6 )e are not doo#ed. .il #ay !e e'pensive6 !ut there are
)ays to get around it6 even )ith e'tra !ene7its. %he earlier )e
develop a su!stitute 7or it6 the #ore oil )e can save 7or
agriculture C7ertili<erD and #a-ing plastics. ,etroleu# is
valua!le. "e should not Eust !urn it up in s#o-e. "e should
save it 7or the 7uture6 i7 )e ever need petroleu# 7or so#ething
that is even #ore i#portant than as 7uels.
1o6 i7 you !elieve in hu#an+caused cli#ate change6 you )ant
alternative energies. I7 you don&t6 pea-+oil still gets you.
"aiting until the last #inute to develop alternative sources o7
energy is li-e driving your car until the e#pty 7uel alert goes
o77 !e7ore re7ueling. 1o#eti#es you #ay Eust get stranded in
the #iddle o7 no)here.
% #t#re with high oil !ri$e may not be really that s$ary
@any i##igrant parents )ho #ove to the A1 7or the 7irst ti#e
to Eoin their sons and daughters o7ten co#plain that it is too
9uiet in the su!ur!s. Not 9uite enough people around. Not 9uite
enough things to see. .ur tastes are ac9uired.
Cities can !e enEoya!le. In a )orld o7 e'pensive oil6 city living
#ay return as the nor# in the A1. City living needs not !e
scary6 especially i7 the cities are )ell+planned cities. %hin-
a!out #id+to)n @anhattan. %hin- a!out those #ulti#illion+
dollar apart#ents overloo-ing Ne) Yor- Central ,ar-6 li-e the
apart#ent 7or#er J CJ. 4ac- "elch has in Ne) Yor- City.
%here are )ell+planned cities that )ere really !uilt 7ro#
scratch6 )ith a city plan 7ro# the very !eginning.
Ne't ti#e you 7ly to =ong Kong6 stop !y a satellite city ne't to
the airport called 2%ung Chung3 and you #ay understand )hat
I #ean.
/e7ore the =ong Kong International Airport )as relocated to
%ung Chung6 %ung Chung )as a 7ishing village at the north
)est edge o7 =ong Kong&s !iggest island6 the Lantau Island.
0espite the 7act that Lantau is the !iggest island in =ong Kong6
do)nto)n =ong Kong is located so#e)here else. It is located
on a s#aller island adEacent to it na#ed6 you guessed it right6
the =ong Kong Island Cactually6 part o7 do)nto)n =ong Kong
also occupies areas across the har!or to the north on the
peninsula side on Ko)loonD. Lantau Island )as intentionally
preserved 7or its natural !eauty and local cultures. %his still is
the goal.
,eople )ho had 7lo)n into =ong Kong !e7ore the airport )as
relocated -no) ho) e'citing it )as to land in the #iddle o7 a
city in a /oeing 5:5. /ecause o7 the terrain6 an airliner could
not line up )ith the run)ay !e7ore the 7inal approach. %he
airplane&s )ing tips appeared to !e s-i#ping over the tops o7
s-yscrapers inches a)ay. Night landings )ere even #ore
un7orgetta!le as the airplane literally descended into 2thousand
points o7 lights3. %hat )as the old =ong Kong airport. No
#ore. one are the dangers o7 7lying so close to a city6 )ith
the# the !eauty and e'cite#ents. A ne) airport had to !e !uilt
to acco##odate the increasing air tra77ic and to provide #ore
#argin o7 sa7ety. %he satellite city o7 %ung Chung )as planned
and developed to support the ne) airport6 )hich )as to !e !uilt
on a piece o7 roc- Cactually a s#all islandD6 )ith additional
land7illing6 out in the sea north o7 %ung Chung. %ung Chung
)as then planned and developed 7ro# scratch. "hen I said
planned6 it )as really planned. It )as not a result o7 natural
selection o7 #icro+econo#ic capitalis#. It )as a result o7
#acro+planning. "ell thought+out in7rastructures lin-ing L0
story+high residential to)ers together6 )ith elevated )al-)ays
allo)ing residents to )al- to the satellite city center. /i-e
paths )ere !uilt+in6 instead o7 !eing Eust an a7terthought.
1hopping #alls are conveniently located at the ground level o7
#any residential !uildings. Co##uter railBsu!)ay )as
e'tended to %ung Chung 7ro# the real =ong Kong do)nto)n6
and the ride is only a!out (0 #inutes. .ne su!)ay stop a)ay
7ro# %ung Chung is the =ong Kong 0isney. Living in a city
such as %ung Chung is one that is convenient6 co#7orta!le6 and
care7ree. Instead o7 hopping into your car6 you get to !urn
so#e calories !y )al-ing to the co##uter rail station on an
elevated )al-)ay. .7 course6 i7 you pre7er the air+conditioned
!us6 the option is availa!le to you as )ell. /esides6 you can
!i-e. .nce you are at the co##uter rail station6 you can go
)herever you )ant to go. oing ho#e6 instead o7 driving
directly into your garage6 you get o77 the connecting !us and
)al- into the entrance o7 your !uilding6 s)ipe your I0 card6
and the door is unloc-ed 7or you. You then ta-e the elevator to
your 7lat6 Eust li-e )hat you )ould do in a hotel. In a certain
)ay6 the co##uter rail 7eels li-e Eust another elevator6 e'cept
that this one goes hori<ontally. You don&t need to )orry a!out
your !ase#ent !eing 7looded !ecause you are )ay a!ove the
ground level. "hen typhoon hits6 you are covered !ecause the
!uildings are !uilt to )ithstand 200U #iles per hour )ind. You
don&t need to )orry a!out carpenter ants eating a)ay your
house. %he highrises are !uilt o7 concrete and steel !ea#s. A
trip to the country side is Eust one ca!le car ride a)ay6 right o77
the satellite city center. Living in this type o7 )ell+planned
cities is a 7ar cry 7ro# living in an ur!an slu# so#e people
have in #ind. As transportation !eco#es #ore e'pensive6 )ell+
planned and energy e77icient cities )ill !e developed. "hen
city living !eco#es the nor# in the A1 instead o7 the
e'ception6 its 9uality )ill i#prove. >uturistic city living can
happen !e7ore you -no) it. It does not have to loo- scary at all.
1o6 I a# not )orried a!out pea-+oil. I only )orry a!out
inaction6 )hich #ay cause us to 7all into an oil cli77.
Climate Change and Peak)Oil
1o6 )here does that leave us*
I have argued that glo!al )ar#ing is not the pro!le#6 !ut
a!rupt local cli#ate redistri!utions triggered !y glo!al
)ar#ing is. At the very least6 it disrupts the glo!al 7ood supply
chain6 and the e'tre#e 7or# o7 it can lead to chaos. /ut I also
argued that glo!al )ar#ing is a value Eudg#ent issue that has
no o!Eective ans)ers. 4ust li-e all other changes6 there )ill !e
)inners and there )ill !e losers. Jven har#7ul event such as
"orld "ar II has its o)n )inners and losers. %his )ar acted as
a shoc-+therapy that shoc-ed the Anited 1tates out o7 its 20U
years o7 econo#ic recession and into a high gro)th post )ar
period. %he ina!ility o7 hu#an !eings to see ho) each
individuals )ill 7air in the i##ediate 7uture a7ter a change
!ecause o7 the inherit uncertainties stops a lot o7 people 7ro#
even predicting a 7e) years out6 not to #ention decades out.
Not 7or the#selves6 not 7or their children6 and not 7or their
societies6 especially i7 the scenario is one that is un7a#iliar to
the#. "e thin- a!out the 7uture as i7 it is Eust a loo-+ali-e o7
the present. "e are o7ten paraly<ed !y the uncertainties and
)ill not thin- di77erently. 1o6 the easiest path 7or people to
7ollo) is to stay put. %hus6 #ay people say6 glo!al )ar#ing6
)hat )ar#ing*
,ea-+.il is a si#ilar !ut di77erent pro!le#. It )ould have !een
a non+event i7 )e can !e sure that no one is coo-ing their
!oo-s. "e -no) the era o7 cheap oil is over. %hat is in itsel7
7ine !ecause higher oil price )ill open up #ore resources6
including rene)a!le energies and shale oils6 )hich )ere
previously too e'pensive. %here is no reason to !elieve that
Ada# 1#ith&s invisi!le hand )ill not )or- )ell this ti#e. /ut
i7 so#e people are coo-ing their !oo-s and no one is paying
attention6 or no one is in the position to pay attention6 then
Ada# 1#ith&s invisi!le hand is not only invisi!le6 !ut
co#pletely undetecta!le.
In the short ter#6 oil production #ay not have pea-ed yet
!ecause higher oil price al)ays opens up #ore oil sources that
)ere previously too e'pensive to e'tract. /ut glo!al de#and
has overta-en supply and there is no return to the 2good old
days3 o7 cheap oil6 e'cept 7or so#e occasional 7ear+triggered
a!nor#alities that are !ound to happen 7ro# ti#e to ti#e given
long enough ti#e. At the individual level6 ,ea-+.il is not a
non+event6 !ut until alternatives to oil !eco#e cheaper6 you
)ill not stop using oil si#ply !ecause it is going to !e #ore
e'pensive. You )ill only stop using oil i7 it is already
e'pensive co#pared )ith other alternatives. 1o6 !e7ore oil
price is driven into the stratosphere !y de#and6 those so+called
alternative energies or rene)a!le energies are doo#ed to 7ail.
,eople in the rene)a!le energy sector can testi7y ho) di77icult
it is to !e in that sector. It there7ore presents us )ith a great
danger? "e #ay collectively 7all into an oil cli77 )hen it hits
suddenly. "hy suddenly* /ecause )e don&t have a good solid
understanding o7 the realities in so#e #aEor oil producing
countries )here the a#ount o7 reserves is so#eti#es treated
li-e a state secret.
1o6 on the individual level6 I don&t !elieve there is anything an
individual6 as an econo#ic !eing6 can do 7or Cli#ate Change
or ,ea-+.il. /ut at the society level6 i7 you are running a
country6 there is a lot a govern#ent can do.
overn#ents e'ist 7or a reason Caside 7ro# the o!vious one
that is to 7end o77 other govern#entsD. %here are things that
individual #e#!ers o7 a society cannot acco#plish on their
o)n Caside 7ro# the o!vious one that is to 7end o77 other
govern#ents6 againOD6 !ut collectively the tas- can !e
acco#plished. .ne good e'a#ple is the 2tragedy o7 the
co##ons.3 .ver 7ishing is a good e'a#ple o7 the tragedy o7
the co##ons. At the individual level6 i7 7ish stoc- starts to
deplete and you have to spend #ore ti#e 7ishing6 you )ill
spend #ore ti#e 7ishing in order to #a-e up 7or the lo)er
productivity. "hen every 7isher#an does the sa#e thing6 the
7ish stoc- is depleted even 9uic-er. It does no single 7isher#an
any good i7 he unilaterally decides to reduce his 7ishing e77ort
in order to replenish the 7ish stoc- so that the society can have
the 7ish stoc- availa!le 7or the long ter# !ecause no one else in
his right #ind )ill 7ollo). "ithout govern#ent intervention6 a
7ree capitalistic society )ill deplete its 7ish stoc- to the point
that no 7ish is le7t un+7ished. It is a race to the !otto#. /ut as a
society6 the govern#ent can issue 9uota or declare periods o7
7ishing !an6 leveling the playing 7ield a#ong the 7isher#en6 so
as to stop the vicious cycle. A govern#ent can preserve the 7ish
stoc- 7or the long ter# !ene7it o7 the society )hile an
individual si#ply cannot.
In !oth glo!al )ar#ing and pea-+oil6 govern#ent action can !e
very e77ective6 !oth to prevent crossing the threshold into
a!rupt local cli#ate redistri!utions6 and to avoid 7alling into a
potential oil cli77 a)aiting us6
%o people )ho are e'tre#e governpho!ic6 I )ould Eust li-e to
point out that govern#ents e'ist 2naturally3. ,eople al)ays
organi<e the#selves into groups. Jven li!ertarians ad#it that a
)orld )ithout govern#ents )ill decent into chaos. A )orld
)ithout govern#ents is a )orld li-e 1o#alia at this point in
ti#e. I also li-e to see leaner govern#ents !ecause
govern#ents all have a tendency to sel7+in7late. .ver ti#e6 all
govern#ents 7ail !ecause o7 sel7+in7lation !eyond the level o7
sustaina!ility. /ut it does not #ean that all govern#ents should
!e 2do+nothing3 govern#ents to stay lean. 1o#eti#es6
govern#ent action is re9uired to resolve things that cannot !e
resolved at an individual level. ,ea-+.il is one. I#posing ta'
on 7ossil 7uels to create an orderly transition into a ne) energy
era )hich are still 80 years a)ay is one thing a govern#ent can
do. A govern#ent is supposed to loo- longer ter#6 not 9uarter
!y 9uarter.
And to those )ho !elieve that since the earth has )ar#ed up
and cooled do)n on its o)n in the past6 there is no need 7or us
to do anything a!out glo!al )ar#ing6 I )ould Eust li-e to point
out that even i7 your !ac-yard had !een in the #iddle o7 an
ocean once upon a ti#e6 it does not Eusti7y seeing so#eone
7looding your !ac-yard and not doing anything si#ply !ecause
the )ater level had !een higher on its o)n !e7ore.
0espite the #any pro!le#s govern#ents have6 I !elieve it is
ti#e 7or govern#ents to act6 to prevent us 7ro# racing each
other to the !otto#6 i7 it is not already too late.
/ut I start to see so#e indication that collectively6 )e the
hu#ans !ehave #ore li-e a colony o7 !rainless !acteria than a
group o7 intelligent !eings6 pro!a!ly !ecause o7 the syste# and
hu#an psychology. %his 7ollo)ing e'peri#ent is very
revealing. I7 you put a person in a roo# to 7ill so#e
9uestionnaire and close the door6 and slo)ly send s#o-e into
the roo#6 the person gets up to investigate. /ut i7 you put a
group o7 people in a roo# to 7ill the 9uestionnaires and send
s#o-e through the door6 no one gets up !ecause everyone
thin-s it is 7ine !ecause no one else gets up Ci7 so#ething is not
7ine6 so#eone )ould have gotten up already6 every!ody
thin-sD. /eing inside a group #a-es people du#!er. Let&s hope
I a# not right a!out that6 the !rainless !acterial part.
%!!endi0 +
=o) do )e esti#ate historical air te#perature 7ro# ice cores
%he a#ount o7 car!on dio'ide in the air in ancient ti#es can !e
directly #easured !y the a#ount o7 car!on dio'ide directly
trapped in the ice core6 !ut ho) do you 7ind out a!out the
at#ospheric te#perature )here that particular section o7 ice
core ca#e 7ro# and )hen it )as !eing 7or#ed* "ouldn&t all
te#perature records Eust si#ply give you the te#perature o7 the
ice )hen it )as !eing 7ro<en up*
=u#ans are actually 9uite s#art. %hey 7igured out ho) to tell
i7 a chuc- o7 ice Cco#pacti7ied sno)D )as evaporated 7ro# a
)ar#er ocean or a colder ocean. You can loo- at the isotope
ratios.
=ere is the theory. I7 so#e )ater is evaporated 7ro# a )ar#
ocean C)ar# at#osphere a!oveD6 the )ater contains6 relatively
spea-ing6 #ore heavy )ater than so#e )ater that is evaporated
7ro# a colder ocean. "hen the )ater rains !ac- do)n to earth6
or sno)s !ac- do)n to earth in the case o7 the ice sheets on
Antarctica and reenland6 it contains this sa#e heavy )ater
content. 1o6 !y #easuring the isotopic ratio6 one can !ac-
deduce the te#perature 7ro# )hich the )ater that #a-es up
that section o7 ice ca#e 7ro#. =eavy )ater co#es in t)o
7or#s. It can !e heavy in o'ygen6 containing o'ygen+1G6 or it
can !e heavy in hydrogen C)ater is =
2
.D6 )hich is also -no)n
as deuteron. Jither one can !e used to do the calculation6 as
long as proper cali!ration is !eing per7or#ed.
>or sea 7loor sedi#ents6 the isotope ratio is the opposite. I7 the
earth is )ar#er6 #ore heavy )ater )ill evaporate and the
ocean )ill !e le7t )ith less o7 it. 1ea7loor sedi#ent 7or# at a
particular ti#e in history )ill contain di77erent a#ount o7
heavy )ater depending on the earth sur7ace te#perature. 1o 7or
sea7loor sedi#ents6 a lo)er heavier isotope ratio indicates a
)ar#er ocean6 e'actly the reverse o7 the ice+core sa#ples.
%!!endi0 4
List o7 research papers that go into the graph in >ig. 10
1. Cdar- !lue 1000+1;;1D? ,.0. 4ones6 K.R. /ri77a6 %.,. /arnett6 and
1.>./. %ett C1;;GD. %he =olocene G? :88+:51.
2. C!lue 1000+1;G0D? @.J. @ann6 R.1. /radley6 and @.K. =ughes
C1;;;D. eophysical Research Letters 2L CLD? 58;+5L2.
(. Clight !lue 1000+1;L8D? Cro)ley and Lo)ery C2000D. A#!io 2;?
81+8:. @odi7ied as pu!lished in Cro)ley C2000D. 1cience 2G;?
250+255.
:. Clightest !lue 1:02+1;L0D? K.R. /ri77a6 %.4. .s!orn6
>.=.1ch)eingru!er6 I.C. =arris6 ,.0. 4ones6 1.. 1hiyatov6 1..
and J.A. Faganov C2001D. 4. eophys. Res. 10L? 2;2;+2;:1.
8. Clight green G(1+1;;2D? 4. Jsper6 J.R. Coo-6 and >.=.
1ch)eingru!er C2002D. 1cience 2;8 C88L(D? 2280+228(.
L. Cyello) 200+1;G0D? @.J. @ann and ,.0. 4ones C200(D.
eophysical Research Letters (0 C18D? 1G20.
0.I?10.102;B200(L015G1:.
5. Corange 200+1;;8D? ,.0. 4ones and @.J. @ann C200:D. Revie)s o7
eophysics :2? R2002. 0.I?10.102;B200(R0001:(.
G. Cred)orange 1800+1;G0D? 1. =uang C200:D. eophys. Res. Lett. (1?
L1(208. 0.I?10.102;B200:L01;5G1.
;. Cred 1+1;5;D? A. @o!erg6 0.@. 1onech-in6 K. =ol#gren6 N.@.
0atsen-o and ". KarlYn C2008D. Nature ::(? L1(+L15.
0.I?10.10(GBnature0(2L8
10. Cdark red 1L00+1;;0D? 4.=. .erle#ans C2008D. 1cience (0G?
L58+L55. 0.I?10.112LBscience.11050:L
%bo#t the %#thor
Kar Y. Lee received his ,h.0. in physics 7ro# the Aniversity
o7 "ashington. A7ter a t)o+year post+doctoral assign#ent in a
national particle accelerator la!oratory in Firginia6 he le7t the
)orld o7 7unda#ental physics research 7or industry. 1ince
then6 he has !een in various technical6 #anagerial6 and
consulting positions in technology and product develop#ent.
,opulari<ing scienti7ic -no)ledge is his li7e long passion.