BJP doing a volte-face on

Lankas ethnic issue

Guest Column by Dr Kumar David-Dated !-Jul-"#!$
%t seems that the &odi government is 're'aring the ground and softening
u' (amils at home and in Lanka to ditch the !-th )mendment and the
%ndo-Lanka )ccord of !*+,- not e.'licitly but to go half/ay do/n this road0
any1 including this /riter thought after Prime &inister &odis conversation
/ith President 2a3a'akse at the formers inauguration1 that %ndia intended
to hold 4rm and retain continuity in res'ect of its stance on Lankas
national 5uestion0 6ubse5uent re'orts ho/ever 'oint in the o''osite
direction0 Ceylon (amils /ho consider %ndian su''ort a bargaining lynch'in
had better /ake u'0 %s the &odi government 're'aring to sell them do/n
river for thirty 'ieces of silver7 8as &odi resolved to thro/ in his lot /ith
2a3a'akse7 %f so1 his reasons % /ill s'eculate on at the end of this 'iece0
Com'elling evidence for this volte-face comes from a high level 4ve-man
BJP team /hich held a seminar in Colombo during the last /eek of July0 (/o
long intervie/s in the local 'ress /ere even more signi4cant0 Before %
summarise1 let me assert that the incontrovertible cou' de grace /ill be if
&odi 'rohibits the 9:82C %nvestigation team from visiting %ndia to collect
evidence and surmount the travel ban 'laced by the 2a3a'akse
government0 (he message then /ould be loud and clear- the &odi and the
BJP do not /ant the Lankan state and military investigated for human rights
violations and /ar-crimes0 (he decision has not been formally announced
but is /idely e.'ected and Jayalalitha has raised the alarm0 6econdly1 if the
%ndian military 'artici'ates in an e.ercise 'lanned by its Lankan counter'art
for later this month ;)ugust "#!$< /hile the 9:82C investigation is still in
'rogress1 Delhi and its military /ill kno/ingly mire themselves in a
di'lomatic and 'olitical morass0
) 'rime motive in 2a3a'akses recent decision to backdate the revie/
'eriod of the Paranagma Disa''earances Commission /as to include the
time the %PK= /as o'erating in Lanka0 (ill recently Delhi /as leaning on
Colombo on human rights and devolution issues0 (he threat to in5uire into
violations by the %PK= /as intended to hit back0 %n the /ake of the
6ubramanium 6/amy led seminar in Colombo and the statements of the
'artici'ants1 clearly the BJP is besotted /ith the 2a3a'akses0 (herefore
Colombos attem't to embarrass Delhi by o'ening the door to a recording
of the dirty deeds of the %PK= is a little ba>ing- it may boomerang0
(he 'osition of the former Congress led government /as that it assisted the
2a3a'akse 6tate to destroy the L((? in the civil1 but on condition and in the
e.'ectation that the (amils of the north and east /ould be 'ermitted a
reasonable degree of devolution and self-administration0 (he %ndo-Lanka
)ccord and the !-th )mendment to the Constitution enca'sulated the
e.'ectations0 @hile the BJP cheered the eradication of the L((? it has never
sho/n much loyalty to the )ccord negotiated by its Congress rival 2a3iv
Gandhi and never had much em'athy for Ceylon (amils0 %t has negligible
standing in (amil :adu hence it is immune to home gro/n (amil sentiment
and cannot be 'ressured into feigning em'athy for Ceylon (amils0 ;Ceylon
(amil is used in this essay to distinguish from the 9'country (amil
community<0
(ill a fe/ /eeks ago the e.'ectation /as that the BJP /ould let the
mandarins in Delhi run 6ri Lanka 'olicy- continuity0 %t /as thought that &odi
had no incentive for 'olicy reversal0 (his e.'ectation has turned out to be
incorrect0 )ccording to the visiting BJP team1 de facto if not de 3ure1 !) the
%ndo-Lanka )ccord /ill be de'osited in the /aste 'a'er basket- Ceylon
(amils /ill be told to go Ay a kite- human rights and /ar-crimes concerns
/ill be s/e't aside- and an a.is bet/een the BJP and the lame duck
2a3a'akse administration1 no/ struggling on its last legs1 /ill be crafted0
(amil dias'ora busybodies /ill no longer be entertained in Delhi and sho/n
the door0 %f you are a Ceylon (amil or a human-rights activist you /ill not
en3oy hearing this- but tough luck1 these are the facts say the visitors0
(he BJP visitors
(his /as no tour grou' visiting to en3oy the scenery and lie on the beach in
s/im/ear- this /as a delegation sent by the BJP /ith a 'olitical 'ur'ose1
and 'ossibly after liaison /ith Lankas Defence and ?.ternal )Bairs
&inistries0 (heir talks at the 'lush B&%C8 Centre and in subse5uent
intervie/s could not have 'leased these &inistries more if they had scri'ted
it themselves0 (eam leader 6ubramanium 6/amys vie/s on Lankas ethnic
imbroglio are /ell kno/n0 8e has al/ays been 4ercely anti L((? and
celebrated its demise- he may be described as belonging to that fringe of
the BJP that has no 'atience /ith the so-called C(amil cause0 ) fair
descri'tion of his stance on the Lankan 6tate and its handling of (amils
/ould beD &r 6/amy is a virtuoso violinist in the 2a3a'akse orchestra0
%n and intervie/ /ith Lanka Paranagama given much 'rominence in the
Daily &irror of "E July and available on its Breaking :e/s /ebsite
;htt'DFF///0dailymirror0lkF<1 BJP =oreign Policy Cell national convener and
member of the :ational ?.ecutive1 Dr0 6eshadri Chari1 /as most revealing0
8ere is a sam'le that illustrates changes that are on the /ay0
GuestionD Promises made by the Government of 6ri Lanka to
im'lement the !th amendment are yet to be realiHed0 8o/ /ill %ndia
'roceed to ensure the 'romise is not limited to mere 'romises7
)ns/erD !) is the 'roduct of a 'articular situation that e.isted at the
time /hen it /as originally dra/n u'0 &uch /ater has Ao/n since
then1 so in the changed circumstances1 all the stakeholders need to
look at !) and im'lement its 'rovisions in a 'hased manner0 %f
Colombo is able to set a 'articular time frame on the im'lementation1
it /ould hel' build bridges bet/een various communities0 %t is u' to
Colombo to rea' the 'eace dividends by im'lementing !)0
GuestionD @hat are your comments on %ndias abstention from voting
at the 96-backed resolution on 6ri Lanka at the "Eth 9:82C session
this year7
)ns/erD (he BJP has al/ays held vie/s contrary to the former
government of %ndia on the voting on the matter at the 9:82C in
"#!"0 %n "#!$ ho/ever1 good sense 'revailed and %ndia abstained0 @e
have al/ays believed that the issues bet/een Colombo and the (amil
'o'ulation is an internal matter of 6ri Lanka0 %ndia has al/ays
o''osed any internaliHation of domestic 'roblems and /e strongly
believe this 'roblem can best be solved through negotiations bet/een
%ndia1 6ri Lanka and other 'arties involved0 )s far as human rights
violations are concerned1 %ndia strongly believes that 6ri Lanka is
seiHed of the matter- LL2C is active1 it has submitted a re'ort and no/
the 5uestion lies on the im'lementation as'ect0 % strongly believe that
both %ndia and 6ri Lanka should resolve this issue and collaborate to
get the resolution com'letely /ithdra/n0 ;(his combines together the
res'onses to a fe/ 5uestions on the same theme<0
GuestionD Given that victims of these alleged 82 violations have Aed
6ri Lanka1 isnt the internationaliHation of the issue inevitable7
)ns/erD (he activities of the (amil dias'ora are a sub3ect matter for
the Government of 6ri Lanka to tackle ;sicI<0 %ndia is against the kind
of negative lobbying carried out by the dias'ora and % ho'e they
/ould better engage on the economic develo'ment and con4dence
building measure of 'ost-/ar 6ri Lanka0
(he other signi4cant intervie/1 s'lashed full-'age across the Ceylon
(oday ne/s'a'er of "* July "#!$1 /as /ith Dr 6/a'an Dasgu'ta1 described
as a close &odi con4dante and ti''ed to be the ne.t %ndian 8igh
Commissioner to London0 ) fe/ e.tracts are suJcient to con4rm that the
BJP is in the 'rocess of making a 'olicy s/itch0 ;Guestions and ans/ers
have been abridged- the full version is available in 'rint and /eb<0
GuestionD (he 'osition of the Congress /as the im'lementation of !)
and !)K0 @ould that be the same /ith the BJP7
)ns/erD %t is too early to tell0 % believe !) is something for 6ri Lanka
to /ork out0 (hey have their constraints- it is not a matter for %ndia to
decide0 %t is im'ortant for %ndia to encourage 6ri Lanka to resolve its
o/n 'roblem0
GuestionD the ! th )mendment stems from a bilateral agreement1
the %ndo-Lanka )ccord0
)ns/erD Lets /ait and see /hat im'ortance the ne/ government
attaches to the Jaya/ardene-2a3iv Gandhi accord0 ;:otice the deft and
dece'tive s/itch from a country to country agreement to a deal
bet/een t/o individuals< 0 0 0 to /hat e.tent it moves on /ith fresh
eyes0
GuestionD @hat is the 'osition of the BJP on the 9:82C /ar crimes
investigation7
)ns/erD %t is /ork in 'rogress 0 0 0 look at it /ith fresh eyes and see
/hat elements need to be continued and /hat needs to be changed0
GuestionD Could the issue over /ar crimes investigation be sorted out
amicably bet/een 6ri Lanka and %ndia7
)ns/erD % believe 6ri Lanka itself can resolve the issue0
(his is carte blanche that the 2a3a'akse siblings and military could have
ho'ed for in their /ildest dreams0
@hy the ra''rochement /ith 2a3a'akse7
(he BJP has no inherited allegiance to the %ndo-Lanka ;or as it no/ calls it
the Jaya/ardena-2a3iv Gandhi< agreement- it has no (amil clientele in %ndia
that it needs to be sensitive about- it has no interest in human rights in
Lanka- and most im'ortant its ideology and value system are diBerent0 %
need to s'ell out this last 'oint in a 'aragra'h or t/o0
(he outgoing Congress government /as corru't1 a failure and rotten0 But it
/as also ideologically and historically a diBerent from the BJP0 %t /as a little
bit more secular than skin-dee'- the BJP /ill not challenge the secular basis
of %ndian 'olity only because it dare not0 Congress did not subscribe to a
8indi-Lnly ideology ;/e 6ri Lankans have an idiom called 6inhala-Lnly
ty'es< in the /ay that the &odi government has already got into dog4ghts
/ith southern and /estern 6tates 'ushing 8indi on the sly0 (he BJP
re'resents the values of a ne/ commercial bourgeois class /hose norms
are diBerent from the old elite0 %f it moves1 buy it1 or sell it1 such is the
5uintessential mentality of merchant ca'ital0
(o this backdro' must be added current im'eratives /hich may motivate
'olicy s/itching- % say may because the matter is not settled yet1 last
/eeks obtuse BJP visiting delegation not not/ithstanding0 (he BJP and &odi
/ill1 obviously1 be asking themselves1 /hat is there in it for us in s/itching
'olicy- /hat is there in not s/itching7 (he case for continuity is stability in
(amil :adu and indeed all the non-8indi 'rovinces1 alignment /ith the
moral high ground occu'ied by the elite1 conformity /ith the /ell /orked
out strategies of the Delhi mandarins1 and association /ith the 96 and the
@est /hich have 'retty much decided on regime change in Colombo0
%f the contrary vie/ 'revails1 that is to say if &odi and the BJP 3udge that the
2a3a'akse regime is a going concern /ith many more years of virility to it1
then a decision /ill be made to go against the current described above and
engage in 'olicy realignment0 (he China factor1 the Pakistan factor and so
on1 are subsidiary footnotes that follo/ only if one determines that the
Lankan regime is secure0 6ecure in this conte.t is not 3ust remaining in
oJce1 /hich it /ell may after the ne.t election cycle ne.t year1 but strong
and stable0 %f the BJP o'ined that this /as so it /ould be making a diBerent
call of 3udgement from many Lankan commentators and the @est /ho see
a lim'ing regime /ith diminished authority even if it scra'es back into
oJce0 &y 3udgement is that this is a cri''led regime /hich may hang on
but my vie/ is irrelevant0 %ndias choice /ill be kno/n soon0
Posted by Thavam