The silent tsunami

Foodprices are causingmisery and strife around the world- Radicalsolutions are needed

DICTURES of hungerusually Merelytodistributethesameamountof food aslastyear,the

I showpassiveeyesand swol- wrp needs-andshouldget-an extra$7oom.
len bellies.Theharvestfailsbe- And becausethe problemsin many placesare not like
causeof wat or strife;the onset thoseof a traditionalfamine,the wrp shouldbe allowedto
of crisisis suddenandlocalised. broadenwhat it does.At themoment,it mostlybuysgrainand
Itsburdenfallson thosealreadv dolesit out in areaswherethereis little or no food.Thatis nec-
atthemargin. essaryin famine-ravaged places,but it damages localmarkets.
Today'spicturesaredifferent.In mostplacesthereareno absoluteshortages and the taskis
"Thisis a silenttsunami,"saysJosetteSheeranof the World to lower domesticpriceswithout doing too much harm to
-FoodProgramme,
a UnitedNationsagency.A waveof food- farmers.Thatis bestdone by distributingcash,not food-by
priceinflationis movingthroughthe world,leavingriots and supporling (sometimesinventing) social-protectionpro-
shakengovemmentsin its wake.Forthefirsttime in 30years, grammesandfood-for-workschemes for thepoor.Ttreagency
foodprotestsareeruptingin manyplacesat once.Bangladesh canhelphere,thoughthemainburden-tensof billionsof dol-
is in turmoil (seepage5a);evenChinais worried (pageSq). lars'worth-will be borne by developing-countrygovern-
Elsewhere, the food crisisof zoo8 will testthe assertionof mentsandlendinginstitutionsin theWest.
AmartyaSen,an Indian economist,that faminesdo not hap- . Suchactionsarepalliatives.But thefood crisisof zoo8has
penin democracies. revealedmarketfailuresat everylink of the food chain (see
Faminetraditionallymeansmassstarvation.Themeasures pages3z-3+). Any "new deal"oughtto try to addressthe long-
of today's crisis are misery and malnutrition. The middle termproblemsthat areholdingpoorfarmersback.
classesin poor countriesaregivingup heatthcareand cutting
outmeatsotheycaneatthreemealsa day.Ttremiddlingpoor, Then stop the distortions
thoseon $za day,arepulling childrenfromschoolandcutting In general,governments oughtto liberalisemarkets,not inter-
backon vegetables so they canstill affordrice.Thoseon gr a venein themfurther.Foodisriddledwithstate interventionat
day are cutting back on meat,vegetablesand one or two everyturn,from subsidiesto millersfor cheapbreadto bribes
meals,so they canaffordone bowl. The desperate-those on for farmersto leaveland fallow. Theupshotof suchquotas,
5ocentsa day-facedisaster. subsidiesand controlsis to dump all the imbalancesthat in
Roughlya billion peoplelive on $r a day.If, on a conserva- anotherbusinessmight be smoothedout throughsmall ad-
tive estimate,the costof their food riseszo%(and in some justmentsontotheoneunregulated partof thefoodchain:the
places,it hasrisena lot more),room peoplecould be forced intemationalmarket.
backto this level,the commonmeasureof absolutepovefiy. For decades,this producedlow world pricesand disin-
In somecountries,thatwould undo all thegainsin povertyre- centivesto poorfarmers.Now,theoppositeis happening.Asa
ductiontheyhavemadeduringthepastdecade of growth.Be- result of yet another governmentdistortion-this time subsi-
causefood marketsarein turmoil, civil strifeis growing;and diesto biofuelsin the rich world-prices havegonethrough
becausetradeand opennessitself couldbe undermined,the the roof. Governments havefurtherexaggerated theproblem
foodcrisisof zoo8may becomea challengeto globalisation. by imposing export quotas and trade restrictions,raising
pricesagain.In the past,the main argumentfor liberalising
FirstfindSzoom farmingwasthat it would raisefood pricesand boostreturns
Richcountriesneedto takethe food problemsasseriouslyas to farmers.Nowthat priceshavemassively overshot,theargu-
theytakethecreditcrunch.AheadybigwigsattheWorldBank ment standsfor the oppositereason:liberalisationwould re-
and the UnitedNationsarecallingfor a'hew deal"for food. duceprices,while leavingfarmerswith a decentliving.
Theirclamouris justified.But gettingthe right kind of help is Thereis an occasionalexceptionto the rule that govern-
not so easy,partly becausefood is not a one-solution-fits-all mentsshouldkeepout of agriculture. Theycanprovidebasic
problemand partly becausesomeof the help needednow technology:executingcapital-intensive irrigationprojectstoo
risksmakingmattersworsein thelongrun. largefor poor individual farmersto undertake,or payingfor
The starting-pointshould be that rising food pricesbear basicsciencethat helpsproducehigher-yieldingseeds.Butbe
moreheavilyon someplacesthanothers.Foodexporters,and careful.Toooften-as in Europe,wheresuperstitiousdistrust
countrieswherefarmersareself-sufficient,or net sellers,ben- of geneticmodificationis slowingtake-upof thetechnology-
efit.Somecountries-thosein WestAfricawhich import their govemments hinderratherthanhelpsuchadvances. Sincethe
staples,or Bangladesh, with its hugenumbersof landlessla- way to feedtheworld is not to bringmoreland undercultiva-
bourers-risk ruin and civil strife. Becauseof the severity tion,but to increaseyields,scienceis crucial.
there,the first stepmust be to mend the holesin the world,s Agricultureis now in limbo. Theworld of cheapfood has
safetynet.Thatmeansfinancingthe WorldFoodprogramme gone.With luck and goodpolicy,therewill be a new equilib-
properly.Thewrr is theworld'slargestdistributorof foodaid rium. The transitionfrom one to the other is proving more
and its most importantbarrierbetweenhungry peopleand costlyandpainfulthan anyonehad expected. But the change
staryation.Likea $r-a-dayfamilyin a developingcountry,its is desirable,and governmentsshouldbe seekingto easethe
purchasingpowerhasbeenslashedby therisingcostof grain. pain of transition,not to stoptheprocess itself. a