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FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
These survey results represent the opinions of 36 of the nations top money managers, investment
strategists, and professional economists.
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were collected
on July 24-25, 2014. Participants were not required to answer every question.
Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those who
did accept our invitation.
1. Do you believe the Federal Reserve will, on net, increase the
size of its balance sheet, reduce it, or keep it the same in 2014
and in 2015:
100%
0% 0%
20%
14%
66%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Increase Reduce Keep same
2014 2015
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
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FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
2. Average Expected Change in Balance Sheet Size:
$408
$(104)
$416
$(146)
$480
$24
-$200
-$100
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2014 2015
B
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
March 18 April 28 July 29
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
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FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
3. Do you expect the Federal Reserve to taper its purchases of
assets at its July meeting?
97%
0%
3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Yes No Don't know/unsure
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 4 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
By how much do you expect the Federal Reserve to taper at its
July meeting? (Only asked of those who said yes to Q3.)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 More
than
$50
Billions
Average:
$10.42
billion
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 5 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
4. The Federal Reserve should:
29%
27%
37%
19%
19%
10%
11%
8%
50%
59%
53%
72%
2%
5%
0% 0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
January 28 March 18 April 28 July 29
Taper faster Taper slower Taper at the same pace Don't know/unsure
Taper slower
Taper at same pace
Don't know/unsure
Taper faster
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 6 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
5. How would you characterize the Fed's current monetary policy?
28%
43%
17%
13%
49%
43%
6%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Too accommodative Just right Too restrictive Don't know/unsure
July 31, 2012 July 29, 2014
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 7 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
6. Overall, how do you rate the clarity and credibility of Fed
communications?
5%
7%
7%
7%
10%
11%
55%
54%
56%
61%
54%
51%
21%
24%
26%
17%
8%
29%
18%
15%
12%
15%
28%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Oct 29 Dec 17 Jan 28 Mar 18 Apr 28 Jul 29
Very clear and credible Somewhat clear and credible
Somewhat not clear and credible Not very clear and credible
Somewhat clear and credible
Not very clear and credible
Very clear and credible
Somewhat not clear and credible
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 8 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
7. Which of these is the bigger risk to your forecasts for Fed policy
in 2014 and 2015?
26% 26%
40%
9%
49%
34%
14%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Fed will be more
dovish than I
expect
Fed will be more
hawkish than I
expect
Risks are balanced Don't know/unsure
2014 2015
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 9 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
8. Relative to an economy operating at full capacity, what best
describes your view of the amount of resource slack in the U.S.
right now for labor and for production capacity?
48%
36%
4%
8%
4%
0%
12%
56%
8%
16%
4% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Considerably
more slack
now
Modestly
more slack
now
No differenceModestly less
slack now
Considerably
less slack
now
Don't
know/unsure
Labor Production Capacity
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 10 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
9. What best describes your view of the most likely outcome from
the current period of extraordinary monetary policy?
34% 34%
26%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
It will end badly
with one or more of
the following: a
stock market crash,
high inflation,
recession
The Fed will
navigate a smooth
transition to more
normal policy
Odds are evenly split
between either
outcome
Don't know/unsure
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 11 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will be on ?
1857
1913
1924
1937
1956
2000
2017
2029
2053
2075
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
Dec 17 Jan 28 '14 Mar 18 Apr 28 Jun 4 July 29
Survey Dates
December 31, 2014 June 30, 2015 December 31, 2015
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 12 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
What do you expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will be
on ?
3.44%
3.37%
3.32%
3.21%
2.90%
2.83%
3.54%
3.24%
3.15%
3.43%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Dec 17 Jan 28 '14 Mar 18 Apr 28 Jun 4 Jul 29
Survey Dates
December 31, 2014 June 30, 2015 December 31, 2015
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 13 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage change in
real U.S. GDP for ?
Jan
29,
'13
Mar
19
Apr 30 Jun 18 Jul 30
Sep
17
Oct 29
Dec
17
Jan
28,
'14
Mar
18
Apr 28 Jun 4 Jul 29
2014 +2.56 +2.60 +2.62 +2.56 +2.52 +2.63 +2.53 +2.62 +2.77 +2.78 +2.75 +2.33 +1.89
2015 +2.90 +3.02 +3.00 +2.81 +2.75
+2.56%
+2.60%
+2.62%
+2.56%
+2.52%
+2.63%
+2.53%
+2.62%
+2.77%
+2.78%
+2.75%
+2.33%
+1.89%
+2.90%
+3.02%
+3.00%
+2.81%
+2.75%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2014 2015
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 14 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
10. What is your forecast for the year-over-year percentage
change in the headline U.S. CPI for ?
1.78%
2.02% 2.02%
2.29%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
Jun 4 Jul 29
Survey Dates
2014 2015
CNBC Fed Survey July 29, 2014
Page 15 of 28
FED SURVEY
July 29, 2014
12. When do you expect the Fed to allow its balance sheet to
decline?
Note: In the April survey, the question was phrased as: When do you believe the Fed will begin
reducing the size of its balance sheet?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
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