Acquiring and Utilizing Scientific and Technical Information to Identify Environmental Risks

Author(s): Robert W. Rycroft, James L. Regens, Thomas Dietz

Source: Science, Technology, & Human Values, Vol. 12, No. 3/4, Special Issue on the Technical
and Ethical Aspects of Risk Communication (Summer - Autumn, 1987), pp. 125-130
Published by: Sage Publications, Inc.
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/689392 .
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Acquiring
a nd
U t il iz ing
S cie nt if ic a nd
Te chnica l Inf orma t ion t o
Id e nt if y
Environme nt a l R is k s
R obe rt W.
R y crof t ,
Ja me s
L.
R e ge ns ,
a nd Thoma s Die t z
of S cie nce s ha s prod uce d t wo ma jor s t ud ie s t ha t ha ve
cha ra ct e riz e d t he d e ba t e a bout ris k s a s "bit t e rl y cont ro-
ve rs ia l " a nd ba s e d on "s pa rs e a nd unce rt a in k nowl e d ge of
ha z a rd s ."4
Cl e a rl y ris k a s s e s s me nt a nd ris k ma na ge me nt ha ve e m-
e rge d a s ma jor t opics f or d is cus s ion wit hin t hos e s e ct ors
of s ocie t y a t t e nt ive t o a nd re s pons ibl e f or e nvironme nt a l
pol icy ma k ing. This ra is e s t he que s t ion of how me mbe rs
of t he .e nvironme nt a l pol icy ma k ing communit y a cquire
a nd ut il iz e s cie nt if ic a nd t e chnica l inf orma t ion t o id e nt if y
e nvironme nt a l ris k s .
Da t a
This re s e a rch re l ie s on d a t a t ha t of f e r a unique opport u-
nit y f or inve s t iga t ing t he wa y s in which s cie nt if ic a nd
t e chnica l inf orma t ion is obt a ine d a nd us e d by t hos e in-
vol ve d in t he e nvironme nt a l pol icy proce s s . We f ocus on
t he Wa s hingt on, DC-ba s e d e nvironme nt a l ris k pol icy
s y s t e m. The d a t a we re ge ne ra t e d by t wo s urve y re s e a rch
proje ct s : t he f irs t prod uce d a n a na l y s is of t he ris k prof e s -
s ion
it s e l f ;5
t his provid e d a
s t a rt ing point f or t he s e cond , a
f ol l ow-on s urve y f ocus ing on S TI ut il iz a t ion que s t ions .
The f irs t s urve y wa s s t ruct ure d t o a l l ow us t o f ocus on
t hre e crit e ria t ha t s e e m t o be ce nt ra l t o t he ut il iz a t ion
of S TI:
Ind ivid ua l promine nce . The init ia l proje ct ge ne ra t e d
pe e r nomina t ions of ris k prof e s s iona l s in a "s nowba l l "
s a mpl ing a pproa ch; t ha t is , e a ch pe rs on int e rvie we d wa s
a s k e d t o id e nt if y f ive pe opl e "whos e prof e s s iona l a ct ivi-
t ie s a re ce nt e re d on a s s e s s ing e nvironme nt a l ris k s or d e -
ba t ing pol icie s int e nd e d t o a ve rt or mit iga t e e nvironme n-
t a l ris k s ." From t his s nowba l l proce s s , more t ha n 770 ris k
prof e s s iona l s we re nomina t e d , a nd more t ha n 220 int e r-
vie we d . The d a t a ba s e e na bl e s id e nt if ica t ion of t hos e ind i-
vid ua l s wit h high promine nce a mong t he ir pe e rs a nd t hus
l ik e l y t o pl a y a n opinion l e a d e rs hip rol e in t he
e me rging
prof e s s ion.
Ins t it ut iona l ce nt ra l it y . Be ca us e t he f irs t proje ct ha d a s
At t e mpt s t o l ink s cie nt if ic a nd t e chnica l inf orma t ion
(S TI)
t o publ ic s e ct or d e cis ions ha ve be come a highl y s a l i-
e nt compone nt of t he pol icy proce s s in t he U nit e d S t a t e s
in re ce nt d e ca d e s . But e ve n whe n good inf orma t ion is
a va il a bl e , ma ny ba rrie rs impe d e t he ut il iz a t ion of d a t a
t ha t ha ve a high l e ve l of s cie nt if ic a nd /or t e chnica l con-
t e nt . Pe rha ps nowhe re is t his more obvious t ha n in t he
ca s e of e nvironme nt a l he a l t h a nd s a f e t y ris k a s s e s s me nt ,
whe re ma jor a mbiguit ie s in d a t a a re common a nd s ub-
s t a nt ia l s cie nt if ic a nd t e chnica l d is a gre e me nt is a con-
s t a nt . Exa mining s uch cont rove rs ie s re ve a l s , in e a ch of
t he ca s e s , a pa t t e rn of re l ia nce on mul t ipl e a nd conf l ict ing
s ource s of e vid e nce , l ine s of inve s t iga t ion, proce s s e s of
inf e re nce , a nd wa y s of e xpre s s ing ris k s .1 As a cons e -
que nce , it is ha rd l y s urpris ing t ha t probl e ms of communi-
ca t ion a nd ut il iz a t ion a re pre va l e nt . Much of t he e nviron-
me nt a l he a l t h a nd s a f e t y pol icy l it e ra t ure s ugge s t s t ha t
s cie nt if ic inf orma t ion of t e n is l imit e d t o a ve ry pe riphe ra l
is s ue -cl a rif ica t ion rol e a nd is s e l d om us e d a s t he d e t e r-
mining f a ct or in ris k a na l y s is or ma na ge me nt choice s .2
S e ve ra l re ce nt e ve nt s und e rs core t he growing ce nt ra l it y
f or e nvironme nt a l pol icy ma k ing of conf l ict s ove r our a bil -
it y t o id e nt if y a nd cope wit h va rious ris k s . For e xa mpl e , in
one of his f irs t publ ic a ct s a s t he ne wl y re t urne d a d minis -
t ra t or of t he Environme nt a l Prot e ct ion Age ncy (EPA),
Wil l ia m R uck e l s ha us ca l l e d f or a gove rnme nt -wid e pro-
ce s s f or a s s e s s ing a nd ma na ging t hos e ha z a rd s . As a k e y
e l e me nt of t ha t e nd e a vor, he a s k e d s cie nt is t s t o ge t more
invol ve d in t he proce s s .3 S imil a rl y , t he Na t iona l Aca d e my
R obe rt W. R y crof t is As s ocia t e Prof e s s or of Int e rna t iona l Af -
f a irs a nd Pol it ica l S cie nce a t Ge orge Wa s hingt on U nive rs it y ,
Wa s hingt on, DC 20052. Ja me s L. R e ge ns is As s ocia t e Prof e s s or
a nd As s ocia t e Dire ct or a t t he Ins t it ut e of Na t ura l R e s ource s ,
U nive rs it y of Ge orgia , At he ns , GA 30602. Thoma s Die t z is As s o-
cia t e Prof e s s or of S ociol ogy a t Ge orge Ma s on U nive rs it y , Fa irf a x,
VA 22030. Prof e s s or R y crof t a nd Prof e s s or Die t z a re coa ut hors of
The R is k Prof e s s iona l s (Ne w York : R us s e l l S a ge Found a t ion,
f ort hcoming 1988).
This re s e a rch wa s s upport e d by t he Na t iona l S cie nce Found a -
t ion und e r gra nt PR A 84-13069 a nd by a gra nt f rom t he R us s e l l
S a ge Found a t ion, "The Wa s hingt on Da nge r Es t a bl is hme nt ."
? 1987 by t he Ma s s a chus e t t s Ins t it ut e of Te chnol ogy a nd t he Pre s id e nt a nd Fe l l ows of Ha rva rd Col l e ge .
S cie nce , Te chnol ogy , & Huma n Va l ue s , Vol ume 12, Is s ue s 3 & 4, pp. 125-130 (S umme r/Fa l l 1987) CCC/0162-2439/87/03&4125-06$04.00
Ta bl e 1. Fa ct ors inf l ue ncing t he ut il it y of s cie nt if ic
inf orma t ion. Pe rce nt of a l l re s pond e nt s who a ns we re d
"Mos t import a nt " f or e a ch f a ct or.
Fa ct or "Mos t Import a nt "
S ource of Te chnica l Ana l y s is 13.7%
Cont e nt of Te chnica l Ana l y s is 45.1
Time l ine s s of Te chnica l Ana l y s is 17.6
De cis ionma k e r's Vie ws 23.5
126 S cie nce , Te chnol ogy , & Huma n Va l ue s -S umme r/Fa l l 1987
a ma jor orie nt a t ion t he id e nt if ica t ion of
l ink a ge s a mong
a nd wit hin ins t it ut ions , it wa s pos s ibl e t o s t ra t if y t he s e c-
ond s urve y t o t a k e int o a ccount t he rol e of ce nt ra l orga ni-
z a t ions in t he f l ow of inf orma t ion. U s ing s t a nd a rd ne t -
work a na l y s is t e chnique s , we we re a bl e t o s core on a n
ind e x ins t it ut iona l pos it ions wit hin t he ris k prof e s s ion. It
wa s pos s ibl e t o t a rge t ind ivid ua l s a ccord ing t o t he ir pl a ce s
of e mpl oy me nt a nd t he ir pos it ions in hie ra rchie s .
U s e rs
of
ris k
inf orma t ion.
The d a t a ge ne ra t e d by t he
init ia l s urve y e ncompa s s e d a wid e va rie t y of f unct ions
pe rf orme d by ris k prof e s s iona l s , incl ud ing t he ge ne ra t ion
of re s e a rch it s e l f , t he t ra ns l a t ion of t he s e d a t a int o us a bl e
f orms , a nd t he a ct ua l us e of t he inf orma t ion it s e l f . It wa s a
re l a t ive l y s t ra ight f orwa rd t a s k t o s t ruct ure t he f ol l ow-on
s urve y t o incl ud e ind ivid ua l s who us e ris k inf orma t ion.
Ta k e n t oge t he r, t he s e t hre e crit e ria we re t he ba s is f or
t he s e l e ct ion of a s a mpl e of 102 k e y ris k prof e s s iona l s . In
a d d it ion t o us ing t he s e t hre e f a ct ors t o ra nk ind ivid ua l s in
ord e r of t he ir priorit y t o be int e rvie we d , we s t ra t if ie d t he
s a mpl e t o e ns ure t ha t a minimum of f ive ind ivid ua l s
woul d be int e rvie we d in e a ch ma jor orga niz a t iona l t y pe
(re s e a rch, re gul a t ory , e t c.)
a nd t ha t a t l e a s t one -t hird of
t he s a mpl e woul d be pol icy d e cis ionma k e rs f rom t he pub-
l ic a nd priva t e s e ct ors , a nd one -t hird t ra ns l a t ors . Our s a m-
pl e t he re f ore gua ra nt e e d int e rvie ws wit h a wid e va rie t y of
ris k prof e s s iona l s . (It
mus t be not e d t ha t t he d a t a pre -
s e nt e d in t his a na l y s is d ra w on onl y a s ma l l port ion of t he
re s pons e s ge ne ra t e d in t he s e cond s urve y , but t he y d o re p-
re s e nt a ns we rs t o s ome of t he mos t s a l ie nt que s t ions
ra is e d by t he S TI ut il iz a t ion
l it e ra t ure .)
Ana l y s is
We be ga n our inquiry by a s k ing our re s pond e nt s a s e rie s of
que s t ions ba s e d on Pa ul S a ba t ie r's obs e rva t ion t ha t t he
us e of s cie nt if ic a nd t e chnica l inf orma t ion in pol icy d e ci-
s ions is a f unct ion of a hos t of f a ct ors : t he re s ource s of t he
s ource , s uch a s pre s t ige or a cce s s ibil it y ; t he cont e nt of t he
me s s a ge , incl ud ing s uch f a ct ors a s pe rce ive d va l id it y , a p-
pl ica bil it y , a nd s uit a bil it y t o d e cis ion ne e d s ; t he t ime l i-
ne s s of me s s a ge s a nd t he ir pol it ica l a nd pol icy cont e nt ;
a nd t he re s ource s a nd vie ws of t he d e cis ionma k e r, pa rt ic-
ul a rl y t he wil l ingne s s
a nd a bil it y t o und e rs t a nd , conf orm-
it y t o pre d is pos it ions ,
a nd a bil it y t o s e e k out a l t e rna t ive
s ource s .6
We pre s e nt e d t his l is t of f a ct ors t o our re s pond e nt s a nd
a s k e d t he m t o ord e r t he m in t e rms of t he ir import a nce t o
pol icy ma k ing. The re s ul t s a re d is pl a y e d in Ta bl e 1.
Cl e a rl y t he cont e nt of a na l y s is is vie we d a s t he mos t im-
port a nt e l e me nt , wit h t he vie ws of t he d e cis ionma k e r a
d is t a nt s e cond . This f ind ing is cons is t e nt wit h t he not ion
t ha t , t o be re l e va nt f or publ ic pol icy , S TI mus t be a t l e a s t
"cont inge nt l y va l id " e ve n if a ra nge of a d d it iona l e l e -
me nt s come int o pl a y .7 Wha t is s t rik ing is t he l ow ra t ing
give n t o t he import a nce
of t he s ource of a na l y s is , e s pe -
cia l l y in l ight of re ce nt cont rove rs ie s s urround ing t he
cre d ibil it y of S TI.
Give n t he s a l ie nce of t he s e e xt e rna l f a ct ors , how d o
d e cis ionma k e rs a ct ua l l y us e S TI? How d o t he y pe rce ive
t he import a nce of t his inf orma t ion in a rriving a t d e ci-
s ions ? Aga in t he l it e ra t ure provid e s s ome s ugge s t ions .
Ja me s Ka t z a rgue s t ha t t he s cie nce pol icy s y s t e m is we a k -
e s t whe re e vid e nce is mis s ing or is cont rove rs ia l , a nd t ha t
in mos t ca s e s e xis t ing e vid e nce is us e d onl y t o cl a rif y
probl e ms ra t he r t ha n s ol ve t he m. More ove r, Ka t z a s s e rt s
t ha t t he inf l ue nce of e xpe rt is e is he ight e ne d t o t he d e gre e
t ha t t he k nowl e d ge ba s e of t he is s ue is und e rs t ood .8 R o-
be rt Cra nd a l l a nd Le s t e r La ve s imil a rl y pos it , ba s e d on
"l e s s ons l e a rne d " f rom a s e rie s of ca s e s t ud ie s , t ha t one of
t he re a s ons s cie nt if ic e vid e nce s e l d om is t he d e t e rmining
f a ct or in t he re gul a t ory proce s s is t ha t s cie nt is t s a re a l -
mos t ne ve r a bl e t o e s t ima t e ris k s wit hin re a s ona bl e l e ve l s
of conf id e nce . But Cra nd a l l a nd La ve concl ud e t ha t s ci-
e nce d oe s a ppe a r t o provid e a s t ruct ure wit hin which
compl e x d e cis ions ca n be ma d e . Fina l l y , t he y cha ra ct e riz e
t he us e of S TI in t e rms of cons t a nt unce rt a int y , which, it
is a rgue d , ma k e s qua nt it a t ive a nd s y s t e mic d e cis ion a na l -
y s is impos s ibl e .9
Whe n a s k e d t he ir re a ct ion t o t he s e a s s e s s me nt s , our
re s pond e nt s e xpre s s e d re l a t ive l y s t rong a gre e me nt wit h
t hre e of t he m, we re e ve nl y d ivid e d on a not he r, a nd we re
in s ubs t a nt ia l oppos it ion t o one
(s e e
Ta bl e
2).
Wha t is
s t rik ing a bout t his pa t t e rn of re s pons e s is t he a gre e me nt
by more t ha n 60% of t he ris k prof e s s iona l s t ha t s cie nce is
ge ne ra l l y not a probl e ms ol ve r a nd t ha t t he pol icy s y s t e m
is we a k e ne d by l e s s t ha n concl us ive e vid e nce . Howe ve r,
t he y e xpre s s s t rong oppos it ion t o t he not ion t ha t t he s e
k ind s of unce rt a int ie s l imit t he e f f ica cy of qua nt it a t ive
a pproa che s ; onl y a bout 12% s upport e d t ha t pos it ion,
which d e rive s f rom t he "t e chnocra t ic" worl d vie w. R e -
f l e ct ing a bia s t owa rd opt imis m a nd re d uct ionis m a nd
s a id t o und e rpin t he d omina nt pa ra d igm of d e cis ionma k -
ing, s uch a pe rs pe ct ive prima ril y d e f ine s probl e ms a s t e ch-
nica l in na t ure a nd e mpha s iz e s probl e m-s ol ving t e ch-
nique s s uch a s s y s t e ms a na l y s is , be ne f it -cos t a na l y s is ,
a nd ris k a s s e s s me nt a s t he s ol ut ion. Ins t e a d , t he ove ra l l
d ire ct ion of re s pons e s t o our s urve y ind ica t e s t ha t s uch
a na l y s is is s e e n a s s impl y one e l e me nt in t he s t ruct ure
wit hin which compl ica t e d d e cis ions a re ma d e . More ove r,
be ca us e ha l f t he re s pond e nt s a gre e t ha t s cie nt is t s s e l d om
a re a bl e t o e s t ima t e ris k s wit h re a s ona bl e conf id e nce ,
s uch a s ophis t ica t e d a ppre cia t ion of t he d y na mics of t he
pol icy ma k ing proce s s on t he pa rt of pa rt icipa nt s
in it is
more l ogica l t ha n is s impl is t ic re l ia nce on a t e chnocra t ic
a pproa ch.
If s cie nt if ic a nd t e chnica l inf orma t ion pl a y s a rol e , a l -
be it bound e d , in pol icy ma k ing f or e nvironme nt a l ris k s ,
whe re is S TI us e d in t he d e cis ionma k ing proce s s ? Ad d i-
t iona l l y , is it a va il a bl e a t t he t ime whe n it is mos t impor-
Ta bl e 2. Pe rs pe ct ive s on t he us e of s cie nt if ic inf orma -
t ion. Pe rce nt of a l l re s pond e nt s giving a ns we r f or e a ch
f a ct or.
"S t rongl y Agre e "
Vie w or "Agre e "
The s cie nce pol icy s y s t e m is we a k -
e s t whe re e vid e nce is
mis s ing or
cont rove rs ia l -in t he a bs e nce of
ve ry s t rong e vid e nce , t he re port s
of s cie nt if ic pa ne l s , f or e xa mpl e ,
wil l ca rry ve ry l it t l e we ight . 61.9%
In mos t ca s e s , s cie nt if ic e vid e nce is
us e d onl y t o cl a rif y probl e ms , not
t o re s ol ve t he m. 65.5
The be t t e r d e cis ionma k e rs und e r-
s t a nd t he k nowl e d ge ba s e of t he
is s ue , t he gre a t e r t he impa ct of
e xpe rt a d vis ors . 77.1
S e l d om a re s cie nt is t s a bl e t o e s t i-
ma t e ris k s wit h re a s ona bl e conf i-
d e nce . 50.0
S cie nt if ic e vid e nce d oe s a ppe a r a bl e
t o provid e a s t ruct ure in which a
compl ica t e d d e cis ion ca n be
ma d e . 69.5
The pre s e nce of unce rt a int y in a n
a na l y s is ma k e s qua nt it a t ive a p-
proa che s impos s ibl e t o us e e f f e c-
t ive l y . 11.9
a nd he ight e ne d
me d ia a t t e nt ion. In s uch a cont e xt , S TI
ma y pl a y onl y a n "e nl ight e nme nt "
or "l a ngua ge " f unc-
t ion.11 Wha t is more re ve a l ing-a nd pot e nt ia l l y
d is t re s s -
ing-is t he re l a t ive l y l ow a va il a bil it y of t ime l y S TI d uring
t he impl e me nt a t ion pha s e . The l a ck of s uch inf orma t ion,
coupl e d wit h t he f re que nt cris is me nt a l it y s urround ing
ma ny of t he k e y e nvironme nt a l pol icy is s ue s ma y go a
l ong wa y t owa rd e xpl a ining why re s pons e s t o ris k s ma y
s ubs e que nt l y be a s s e s s e d a s ine f f e ct ive a nd /or e conomi-
ca l l y ine f f icie nt whe n more compl e t e S TI is a va il a bl e f or
t he e va l ua t ion pha s e . In f a ct , whe n a s k e d whe t he r S TI is
a va il a bl e whe n it is mos t import a nt , s ome 62% of re s pon-
d e nt s s a id it wa s not , compa re d wit h onl y 13% re s pond ing
pos it ive l y .
Wha t a ccount s f or t his ga p be t we e n t he ne e d f or S TI a nd
it s a va il a bil it y ? Te d Gre e nwood a s s e rt s t ha t whil e "much
a bout s cie nce a nd e ngine e ring t ha t is re l e va nt t o e nviron-
me nt a l , he a l t h, a nd s a f e t y re gul a t ion
is k nown or ca n be
d is cove re d t hrough mod e s t e f f ort ," t he re a re f our pot e n-
t ia l d e f icie ncie s in t he k nowl e d ge ba s e . Firs t , whil e S TI
ma y be a va il a bl e , it s int e rpre t a t ion of t e n is unce rt a in or in
d is put e . S e cond , S TI ma y e xis t or coul d be obt a ine d wit h
l imit e d re s e a rch, t e s t ing, me a s ure me nt , or a na l y s is , but it
is not a va il a bl e t o a ge ncie s whe n ne e d e d . Third , ne e d e d
S TI ma y not e xis t a nd coul d be obt a ine d onl y wit h s ub-
s t a nt ia l e f f ort . Fina l l y , re l e va nt S TI ma y be unobt a ina bl e
in principl e .12 As k e d a bout t his l is t of pos s ibil it ie s , our
re s pond e nt s s t rongl y a gre e d t ha t t he f irs t t hre e d e f icie n-
cie s we re pre s e nt f or e nvironme nt a l re gul a t ory a ge ncie s .
Ta bl e 4 re ve a l s t ha t more t ha n 70% f ind S TI t oo unce rt a in
t o be us e f ul , obt a ina bl e but not a va il a bl e , or t oo e xpe ns ive
in t e rms of t ime or mone y . The y a re l e s s convince d t ha t
S TI is unobt a ina bl e in principl e , a l t hough a l mos t ha l f
a gre e wit h t he pre mis e t ha t s uch "t ra ns -s cie nt if ic" inf or-
ma t ion ma y re pre s e nt a d e f icie ncy .
Pre s e nt e d wit h s uch l imit a t ions on t he a cce s s t o S TI,
how d o t he ris k prof e s s iona l s k e e p t he ms e l ve s inf orme d ?
Ta bl e 5 s umma riz e s t he ir re s pons e s t o a que s t ion t ha t
pos e d f ive opt ions f or ga ining a cce s s t o S TI. It s hows t ha t
t he re s pond e nt s ut il iz e a va rie t y of me cha nis ms , t he mos t
import a nt of which a re conve rs a t ions wit h col l e a gue s a nd
re a d ing t he s e cond a ry (i.e ., nont e chnica l )
l it e ra t ure . S t a f f
brie f ings , s e mina rs , ba ck ground pa pe rs , a nd prof e s s iona l
me e t ings a re t he ne xt mos t us e d me cha nis ms , wit h re a d -
ing t he prima ry (i.e ., t e chnica l )
l it e ra t ure s ome wha t l e s s
import a nt .
Find ing t ha t communica t ion wit h pe e rs is s ignif ica nt is
no s urpris e , give n t he a ck nowl e d ge d import a nce of inf or-
Ta bl e 3. Import a nce of t he a va il a bil it y of s cie nt if ic inf or-
ma t ion a t va rious
s t a ge s of t he pol icy proce s s . Pe rce nt of
a l l re s pond e nt s t ha t a ns we re d , f or e a ch s t a ge , t ha t a va il -
a bil it y is import a nt .
Ava il a bil it y Is
S t a ge in Pol icy Proce s s "Ve ry " Import a nt
Ge t t ing Pol icie s on t he Pol it ica l
Age nd a 49.5%
Formul a t ing Pol icie s 63.4
Impl e me nt ing Pol icie s 35.4
Eva l ua t ing Pol icie s 64.4
R y crof t e t a l .: S cie nt if ic a nd Te chnica l Inf orma t ion 127
t a nt ? The s e t wo que s t ions ra is e import a nt is s ue s be ca us e
t he rol e of s cie nt if ic e vid e nce is ve ry d if f e re nt a t e a ch
s t a ge of t he pol icy proce s s . For e xa mpl e , it ma y be us e d a s
e vid e nce f or e s t a bl is hing a pol icy orie nt a t ion or conce p-
t ua l f ra me work , a s a ba s is f or pol icy jus t if ica t ion a nd l e -
git ima t ion, or f or probl e m s ol ving. Once a ga in, Ka t z s ug-
ge s t s a pot e nt ia l a ns we r t o t he s e que s t ions . He a rgue s t ha t
a curvil ine a r re l a t ions hip e xis t s be t we e n t he s t a ge s in t he
pol icy proce s s -a ge nd a s e t t ing, f ormul a t ion, impl e me n-
t a t ion, e va l ua t ion-a nd t he inf l ue nce of s cie nce : S TI wil l
t e nd t o e xe rt t he gre a t e s t impa ct on pol icy ma k ing a t t he
init ia l a nd f ina l s t a ge s of t he proce s s a nd ha ve t he l e a s t
e f f e ct d uring t he int e rme d ia t e s t a ge , a ccord ing t o t his l ine
of t hought .1?
Our a na l y s is f ind s s ome s upport f or t his conce pt ua l i-
z a t ion; but , a s Ta bl e 3 d e mons t ra t e s , our re s pond e nt s '
vie ws s ugge s t wha t might be t e rme d a s l ight l y "d e l a y e d "
curvil ine a r re l a t ions hip. The ris k prof e s s iona l s ove r-
whe l mingl y vie we d S TI a s ve ry import a nt in t he f ormul a -
t ion a nd e va l ua t ion s t a ge s , but t he y a t t a che d l e s s
import a nce t o it s rol e in t he a ge nd a -s e t t ing a nd impl e -
me nt a t ion pha s e s . It mus t be not e d , howe ve r, t ha t a l mos t
50% of re s pond e nt s vie we d s cie nt if ic inf orma t ion a s ve ry
s ignif ica nt in ge t t ing pol icie s on t he pol it ica l a ge nd a . Al -
t hough s e ve ra l e xpl a na t ions might be of f e re d f or t he
s ome wha t l owe r s a l ie nce of S TI f or e nvironme nt a l a ge nd a
s e t t ing, pe rha ps t he mos t pl a us ibl e is t he cris is na t ure of
ma ny e nvironme nt a l pol icy is s ue s . In a cris is s it ua t ion,
S TI ma y be pre l imina ry a nd ma y compe t e wit h publ ic f e a r
Ta bl e 6. Inf l ue nt ia l ma s s me d ia s ource s .
S ource Pe rce nt of R e s pons e s
Wa s hingt on Pos t 21.1%
Ne w York Time s 19.6
Wa l l S t re e t
Journa l
14.4
"Ma cNe il -Le hre r R e port " 7.2
"Al l Things Cons id e re d " 3.1
CBS Ne ws 3.1
ABC Ne ws 2.1
NBC Ne ws 1.5
Time 1.5
"S ixt y Minut e s " 1.0
Ne ws we e k 1.0
Ta bl e 4. De f icie ncie s in t he s cie nce a nd t e chnol ogy
k nowl e d ge
ba s e . Pe rce nt of a l l re s pond e nt s t ha t a ns we re d
t ha t a pa rt icul a r d e f icie ncy wa s s ignif ica nt .
"Highl y " or
De f icie ncy "S ome wha t " S ignif ica nt
The s cie nt if ic inf orma t ion
a va il a bl e t o re gul a t ory
a ge ncie s is t oo unce rt a in t o
be us e f ul . 70.3%
The s cie nt if ic inf orma t ion
ne e d e d by re gul a t ory a ge n-
cie s coul d be obt a ine d , but
is not a va il a bl e whe n
ne e d e d . 74.5
The s cie nt if ic inf orma t ion
ne e d e d by re gul a t ory a ge n-
cie s is t oo e xpe ns ive or t oo
t ime cons uming t o be
ma d e a va il a bl e . 70.9
The s cie nt if ic inf orma t ion
ne e d e d by re gul a t ory a ge n-
cie s is unobt a ina bl e in
principl e , e ve n wit h a s ub-
s t a nt ia l inve s t me nt of t ime
a nd mone y .
48.9
ma t ion ne t work s in Wa s hingt on a nd t he pre s e nce of "in-
vis ibl e col l e ge s " of col l e a gue s a nd compe t it ors t hrough-
out t he va rious s cie nt if ic a nd t e chnica l d is cipl ine s . The
gre a t e r import a nce a t t a che d t o t he s e cond a ry a s oppos e d
t o t he prima ry l it e ra t ure , howe ve r, ma y a t f irs t gl a nce run
a ga ins t t he conve nt iona l wis d om. The re a re s e ve ra l pos s i-
bl e e xpl a na t ions f or t his phe nome non. To t he d e gre e t ha t
prima ry S TI is una va il a bl e , nont e chnica l inf orma t ion
ma y be ut il iz e d t o f il l t he ga ps . More ove r, d is put e s ove r
e nvironme nt a l ris k ul t ima t e l y a re pol it ica l conf l ict s re -
quiring pol it ica l re s ol ut ions ; e f f ort s whos e ba s is of
l e git i-
ma cy d e pe nd s e nt ire l y on t e chnica l s ource s ca nnot be e x-
pe ct e d t o s e t t l e conf l ict s whos e origins f re que nt l y l ie in
d ive rge nt s ocia l or mora l vie ws . As a re s ul t , nont e chnica l
Ta bl e 5. Me cha nis ms f or k e e ping inf orme d a bout e nvi-
ronme nt a l s cie nce a nd pol icy .
Pe rce nt of a l l re s pond e nt s
who f ound a me cha nis m import a nt .
"Ve ry " or
Me cha nis m "S ome wha t " Import a nt
R e a d ing t he Prima ry (Te chni-
ca l )
Lit e ra t ure 68.7%
R e a d ing t he S e cond a ry (Non-
t e chnica l )
Lit e ra t ure 91.2
At t e nd ing Prof e s s iona l Me e t -
ings
78.4
S t a f f Brie f ings , S e mina rs , a nd
Ba ck ground Pa pe rs
81.3
Conve rs a t ions wit h Col -
l e a gue s
97.0
128 S cie nce , Te chnol ogy , & Huma n Va l ue s -S umme r/Fa l l 1987
inf orma t ion ma y ha ve a s much or more re l e va nce in s uch
conf l ict s a s t he prima ry l it e ra t ure .
R is k prof e s s iona l s a l s o re a d or l is t e n t o a
ra nge of ma s s
me d ia . Howe ve r, t he print me d ia f a re much be t t e r in t his
re ga rd t ha n d o t e l e vis ion or ra d io s ource s . R e gul a r or occa -
s iona l us e is a s s ocia t e d much more wit h s ource s s uch a s
The Wa s hingt on Pos t , The Ne w York Time s , a nd The
Wa l l S t re e t
Journa l
t ha n wit h a ny of t he
ma jor
ne t work s .
And t his pa t t e rn is e qua l l y pronounce d whe n re s pond e nt s
a re a s k e d t o id e nt if y t hos e ma s s me d ia s ource s t ha t t he y
ha ve f ound t o be inf l ue nt ia l in t he ir own work . Ta bl e 6
und e rs core s t he re l a t ive inf l ue nce of ne ws pa pe rs ve rs us
ot he r s ource s . A publ ic t e l e vis ion s ource , t he "Ma cNe il -
Le hre r R e port ," a nd a publ ic ra d io s ource , "Al l Things
Cons id e re d ," a re s e e n a s more inf l ue nt ia l t ha n t he com-
me rcia l t e l e vis ion ne t work s . The s e f ind ings a re cons is -
t e nt wit h pre vious re s e a rch, which ha s s hown t ha t s cie n-
t is t s
(a s
we l l a s t he ge ne ra l publ ic) ge t
ne ws wit h a high
s cie nt if ic a nd /or t e chnica l cont e nt more of t e n t hrough
t he pre s s t ha n t hrough t he broa d ca s t me d ia .13
Be ca us e a wid e ra nge of d is cipl ine s
a re re l e va nt f or t he
e nvironme nt a l pol icy a re na , we woul d e xpe ct a wid e va ri-
e t y of journa l s ource s t o be us e d by t he ris k prof e s s iona l s .
Ind e e d , our re s pond e nt s d o s e e k inf orma t ion f rom s uch
s ource s . More t ha n 20 journa l s a re re a d wit h re gul a r or
occa s iona l f re que ncy by one -f if t h of our re s pond e nt s .
As k e d which of t he journa l s ha d be e n inf l ue nt ia l in t he ir
work , our re s pond e nt s a ga in l is t mos t l y nont e chnica l
s ource s
(s e e
Ta bl e
7).
The journa l of t he S ocie t y f or R is k
Ana l y s is , R is k Ana l y s is , is promine nt in t his re ga rd , a s a re
a numbe r of publ ica t ions d e s igne d
t o monit or pol it ics
in
t he Wa s hingt on a re a . The s e s pe cia l iz e d s ource s a re highl y
d ive rs e : t e chnica l publ ica t ions s uch a s Toxicol ogy a nd
Appl ie d Pha rma col ogy a re joine d by more curre nt -e ve nt s -
orie nt e d s ource s s uch a s t he Na t iona l
Journa l
a nd Ins id e
EPA. Ma ny of t he mos t wid e l y re a d journa l s s uch a s S ci-
e nce pe rf orm mul t ipl e f unct ions , combining re s e a rch d is -
s e mina t ion wit h a s y nt he s is of curre nt e ve nt s t opics .
Fina l l y , give n t he ir e mpha s is on pe rs ona l cont a ct s a nd
conve rs a t ions wit h col l e a gue s , we wa nt e d t o k now wha t
orga niz a t iona l conne ct ions woul d be id e nt if ie d by t he ris k
prof e s s iona l s . Two t hings a re s t rik ing a bout t his s e t of
re s pons e s . Firs t , e a ch of t he ma jor orga niz a t iona l group-
ings (corpora t e , gove rnme nt , l a bor, e t c.)
f e a t ure s s e ve ra l
ins t it ut ions wit h whom a t l e a s t ha l f t he ris k prof e s s iona l s
a re in re gul a r or occa s iona l cont a ct . The e xce pt ion is orga -
Ta bl e 7. Inf l ue nt ia l journa l s ource s .
Pe rce nt of
Journa l R e s pons e s
S cie nce 13.3%
Ins id e EPA 11.6
Na t iona l
Journa l
6.6
R is k Ana l y s is
5.8
Environme nt a l R e port e r
5.0
Che mica l &) Engine e ring Ne ws 4.1
Congre s s iona l Qua rt e rl y
3.3
Environme nt a l S cie nce & Te chnol ogy 3.3
Na t ure 2.9
R e gul a t ion
2.9
Toxicol ogy a nd Appl ie d Pha rma col ogy 2.5
Environme nt a l He a l t h Pe rs pe ct ive s
2.1
Ta bl e 8. Inf l ue nt ia l orga niz a t iona l s ource s .
Pe rce nt of
Orga niz a t ion R e s pons e s
Environme nt a l Prot e ct ion Age ncy 9.5%
Environme nt a l De f e ns e Fund 5.4
Na t ura l R e s ource s De f e ns e Council 5.4
Ame rica n Pe t rol e um Ins t it ut e 4.7
Na t iona l Wil d l if e Fe d e ra t ion 3.2
Aud ubon S ocie t y 2.2
Covingt on a nd Burl ing 2.2
De pa rt me nt of Ene rgy 2.2
Food a nd Drug Ad minis t ra t ion 2.2
Occupa t iona l S a f e t y a nd He a l t h
Ad minis t ra t ion 2.2
AFL-CIO 1.9
Na t iona l S cie nce Found a t ion 1.9
Che mica l Ma nuf a ct ure rs As s ocia t ion 1.6
De pa rt me nt of He a l t h a nd Huma n S e rvice s 1.6
De pa rt me nt of t he Int e rior 1.6
DuPont 1.3
Ed is on El e ct ric Ins t it ut e 1.3
El e ct ric Powe r R e s e a rch Ins t it ut e 1.3
Ame rica n Ind us t ria l He a l t h Council 1.3
ICF 1.3
S ie rra Cl ub 1.3
R y crof t
e t a l .: S cie nt if ic a nd Te chnica l Inf orma t ion 129
promine nce
of t he EPA is pre d ict a bl e ,
of t he s ix mos t
inf l ue nt ia l orga niz a t ions
id e nt if ie d by our re s pond e nt s ,
f our a re e nvironme nt a l groups .
The high ra nk ing give n
t o
groups s uch a s t he Environme nt a l De f e ns e Fund a nd t he
Na t ura l R e s ource s De f e ns e Council re ve a l s a cl e a r int e -
gra t ion
of e nvironme nt a l orga niz a t ions
int o t he pol icy -
ma k ing proce s s . More ove r, t he a bil it y of s uch groups t o
ins t it ut iona l iz e t he ir rol e is a l l t he more s ignif ica nt s ince
t he l it e ra t ure t o d a t e s ugge s t s a t l e a s t t he ir pa rt ia l d is e n-
f ra nchis e me nt und e r t he R e a ga n a d minis t ra t ion. Cl e a rl y ,
howe ve r, e nvironme nt a l groups
re ma in a d omina nt com-
pone nt of t he communit y whe n vie we d f rom t he pe rs pe c-
t ive of t he ris k prof e s s iona l s .
Concl us ion
The us e of S TI by e nvironme nt a l ris k prof e s s iona l s
d oe s
not conf orm t o a ny s impl e mod e l of pol icy ma k ing. In-
s t e a d , our re s pond e nt s ma nif e s t highl y compl e x pa t t e rns
of ut il iz a t ion a cros s va rious s ource s . This ma y go a l ong
wa y t owa rd e xpl a ining why , a f t e r y e a rs of e f f ort , a t t e mpt s
t o ge ne ra t e
a nd cha nne l S TI in a "ra t iona l " wa y ha ve me t
wit h s o l it t l e s ucce s s . Bot h s ocie t y a nd it s s chol a rs s t il l
ha ve much t o l e a rn a bout t he f a ct ors t ha t a f f e ct t he re ce p-
t ion a nd ut il iz a t ion of s cie nt if ic a nd t e chnica l inf orma -
t ion. As one re ce nt s t ud y put it , f a r t oo much work t o d a t e
ha s "f ocus e d on t he cre a t ion a nd d is s e mina t ion of s cie n-
t if ic a d vice , l a rge l y ignoring t he d if f icul t -t o-a s s e s s f a ct ors
t ha t d e t e rmine how a d e cis ionma k e r us e s s cie nt if ic orga -
niz a t ions a nd a d vice , a nd t he ir cons e que nt impa ct on t he
d e cis ion proce s s it s e l f ."14
niz e d l a bor, which ha s t he l owe s t a ve ra ge cont a ct (27.4%)
wit h t he ris k prof e s s iona l s
of a ny of t he orga niz a t iona l
groupings in our s t ud y . The s e d a t a re f l e ct t he pe riphe ra l
pos it ion of l a bor groups in t he e nvironme nt a l pol icy s y s -
t e m. S e cond , e nvironme nt a l groups ha ve t he s e cond high-
e s t a ve ra ge cont a ct wit h t he ris k prof e s s iona l s (46.5%),
f ol l owing onl y gove rnme nt a ge ncie s (57.8%).
Eve n if mos t
of t he init ia t ive f or t he s e cont a ct s come s f rom t he e nvi-
ronme nt a l is t s -which is quit e l ik e l y give n t he ir e xt e n-
s ive out re a ch e f f ort s , which incl ud e t a pping e ve n t he in-
f orma t ion ba s e s of t he ir pol icy a nt a gonis t s -t his is a
re l a t ive l y high l e ve l of int e ra ct ion.
Bot h t he s e point s a re give n f urt he r e mpha s is by Ta bl e 8,
which s hows t he ris k prof e s s iona l s ' vie ws of t hos e orga ni-
z a t ions t ha t ha ve be e n inf l ue nt ia l in t he ir work . Whil e t he
Ack nowl e d gme nt s -Comput ing
re s ource s we re provid e d
by t he Aca d e mic Comput ing S e rvice of Ge orge Ma s on
U nive rs it y a nd t he Ce nt e r f or Aca d e mic a nd Ad minis t ra -
t ive Comput ing
of Ge orge Wa s hingt on U nive rs it y . We
t ha nk Cy nt hia Boit e r f or he r s upe rb a s s is t a nce in a l l
pha s e s of t his s t ud y .
Not e s
1. S e e Cons e rva t ion Found a t ion, S t a t e of t he Environme nt : An
As s e s s me nt a t Mid -De ca d e
(Wa s hingt on,
DC: Cons e rva t ion
Found a t ion,
1984);
Ja me s L.
R e ge ns ,
Thoma s M. Die t z , a nd
R obe rt W. R y crof t , "R is k As s e s s me nt in t he
Pol icy -Ma k ing
Proce s s : Environme nt a l He a l t h a nd S a f e t y Prot e ct ion," Pub-
l ic Ad minis t ra t ion R e vie w, Vol ume 43, Numbe r 2
(Ma rch/
April 1983): 137-145; Da nie l By rd a nd Le s t e r B. La ve , "Na r-
rowing t he R a nge : A Fra me work f or R is k R e gul a t ors ," Is s ue s
in S cie nce a nd Te chnol ogy , Vol ume 3, Numbe r 4
(S umme r
1987):
92-100.
2. Da l e Ha t t is a nd Da vid Ke nne d y , "As s e s s ing R is k s f rom
He a l t h Ha z a rd s : An Impe rf e ct S cie nce ," Te chnol ogy R e vie w,
Vol ume 89, Numbe r 5
(Ma y /June 1986):
61-71; Al a n Ma z ur,
"Bia s in R is k -Be ne f it Ana l y s is ," Te chnol ogy in S ocie t y , Vol -
ume 7, Numbe r 1
(1985); 25-30; Ja me s F. S hort , Jr., "The
130
S cie nce , Te chnol ogy , & Huma n Va l ue s -S umme r/Fa l l 1987
S ocia l Fa bric a t R is k : Towa rd t he S ocia l Tra ns f orma t ion of
R is k Ana l y s is ,"
Ame rica n
S ociol ogica l R e vie w, Vol ume 49,
Numbe r 6
(De ce mbe r 1984):
711-725.
3. Wil l ia m D.
R uck e l s ha us , "S cie nce , R is k , a nd Publ ic Pol icy ,"
a s pe e ch by t he a d minis t ra t or of t he U .S . Environme nt a l Pro-
t e ct ion
Age ncy t o t he Na t iona l
Aca d e my of S cie nce s , Wa s h-
ingt on,
DC,
22 June 1983.
4. Na t iona l R e s e a rch Council , R is k As s e s s me nt in t he Fe d e ra l
Gove rnme nt :
Ma na ging t he
Proce s s
(Wa s hingt on,
DC: Na -
t iona l
Aca d e my Pre s s ,
1983);
Na t iona l R e s e a rch Council ,
R is k a nd De cis ion Ma k ing: Pe rs pe ct ive s a nd
R e s e a rch
(Wa s hingt on,
DC,
Na t iona l
Aca d e my Pre s s ,
1982).
5.
Thoma s Die t z a nd R obe rt W. R y crof t , The R is k Prof e s s iona l s
(Ne w
York : R us s e l l
S a ge
Found a t ion,
f ort hcoming).
6. Pa ul S a ba t ie r, "The Acquis it ion a nd U t il iz a t ion of Te chnica l
Inf orma t ion by Ad minis t ra t ive Age ncie s ," Ad minis t ra t ive
S cie nce
Qua rt e rl y ,
Vol ume 23, Numbe r 3
(S e pt e mbe r 1978):
396-417.
7. Ha rve y A. Ave rch, A S t ra t e gic Ana l y s is of S cie nce a nd Te ch-
nol ogy Pol icy
(Ba l t imore ,
MD: Johns Hopk ins U nive rs it y
Pre s s ,
1985),
pp. 98-123.
8. Ja me s E. Ka t z , "The U s e s of S cie nt if ic Evid e nce in Congre s -
s iona l
Pol icy ma k ing: The Cl inch R ive r Bre e d e r R e a ct or," S ci-
e nce , Te chnol ogy , &
Huma n Va l ue s , Vol ume 9, Is s ue 1
(Win-
t e r
1984):
51-62.
9. R obe rt W. Cra nd a l l a nd Le s t e r B. La ve , e d s ., The S cie nt if ic
Ba s is f or He a l t h a nd S a f e t y R e gul a t ion (Wa s hingt on,
DC:
Brook ings Ins t it ut ion,
1981).
10.
Ka t z , op. cit .
11.
Jurge n
S chma nd t , "R e gul a t ion a nd S cie nce ," S cie nce , Te ch-
nol ogy ,
&
Huma n Va l ue s , Vol ume 9, Is s ue 1
(Wint e r 1984):
23-38.
12.
Te d
Gre e nwood , Knowl e d ge a nd Dis cre t ion in Gove rnme nt
R e gul a t ion
(Ne w
York :
Pra e ge r, 1984), pp. 73-74.
13. Dorot hy Ne l k in, S e l l ing S cie nce : How t he Pre s s Cove rs S ci-
e nce a nd
Te chnol ogy
(Ne w
York : W. H. Fre e ma n, 1987); M.
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