Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Figure 2 Value of loss or gain from a reference point
Hyperbolic Discounting - Some evidence indicates that people discount the future hyperbolically, that
is, as shown in Figure 3, the discount rate declines and then flattens out so that after some time the
present value of something no longer significantly declines (Laibson 1997).
Time
Discount
rate
Figure 3 Hyperbolic discounting
Chapter 6: Discounting, ethics, and options for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem integrity
13
The existence of hyperbolic discounting implies that standard economic analysis may seriously
underestimate the long-term benefits of biodiversity protection. If people discount hyperbolically, and
if we respect stated preferences, straight-line discounting should not be used to place values on
distant-future environmental damages such as those caused by biodiversity loss. Hyperbolic
discounting has been widely discussed in the theoretical literature and has had some impact on policy
recommendations. Cropper and Laibson (1999) recommend using hyperbolic discounting in the case
of global warming and Chichilnisky (1996) uses hyperbolic discounting in her model of sustainable
development. One of the positive features of welfare economics is that, in theory, it respects
individual choice. If individuals choose to place the same value on biodiversity present 50 years from
now as they do on biodiversity 100 years from now, then economists should respect that preference.
Of course, just because individuals are observed to discount hyperbolically does not mean that a
social discount rate should be hyperbolic.
Beltratti, Chichilnisky and Heal (1998) advocate the use of the green golden rule for renewable
resources, using something near market discount rates in the short run (so that the present is not
exploited) and a rate asymptotically approaching zero in the long run (so that the distant future is not
exploited). Similarly, Weitzman (2001) advocates what he terms gamma discounting using a rate of
about 4 percent for the immediate future with a steady decline to near zero in the distant future.
Inconsistent Discounting Rubinstein (2003) points out that hyperbolic discounting has been
accepted by many economists because it can be easily incorporated into the net present value
framework of standard economic analysis. He argues that the evidence suggests that the larger
problem is inconsistent, not hyperbolic, discounting. People appear to have different discount rates for
different kinds of outcomes (Loewenstein 1987). Considerable evidence exists that people are wildly
inconsistent even when discounting similar things. Inconsistent discounting suggests some limits to
attempts to placing precise numbers on the general tendency of individuals to prefer something now
rather than later.
The Equity Premium Puzzle Mehra and Prescott (1985) showed that the discounted utility model is
deeply inconsistent with the observed gap between the low returns available on safe investments and
the much higher average returns paid provided by risky assets such as corporate stocks. Mankiw and
Zeldes (1991) calculate that the level of risk aversion implied by this rate-of-return spread implies that
an investor would have to be indifferent between a bet equally likely to pay $50,000 or $100,000
(with an expected value of $75,000) and a certain payoff of $51,209.
Explaining the low market return on safe assets requires that both and must assume values near
zero (Kocherlakota, 1996). Yet explaining the high risk premium paid by stocks requires that
investors must be highly risk averse, which implies that must attain a high, positive value to be
consistent with the data. Scientifically, this suggests that the discounted utility model is in a deep
sense inconsistent with empirical observations. This point undercuts reliance on equation (2) to
calculate discount rates. Several approaches have been advanced to address this disparity (see
Kocherlakota, 1996; Cochrane, 2001). Some models have extended preferences to distinguish
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: The Ecological and Economic Foundations
14
between risk preferences and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Others assume that
preferences are shaped by habit formation and/or relative consumption effects. A third hypothesis is
that investors are loss averse with respect to investment gains and losses (Benartzi and Thaler, 1995).
Including this effect in the utility function serves to decouple the social discount rate from the market
rate of return (Howarth, 2009). In this case, the public policies should be discounted at a rate that is
close to the risk-free rate of return, even for policies that involve significant degrees of uncertainty.
Discounting under Uncertainty On theoretical grounds, there is reason to believe that greater
uncertainty about the future may tend to produce lower certainty-equivalent discount rates (Gollier,
2008). This is because investing in safe assets reduces the risks pertaining to future economic welfare,
rendering them attractive to investors even at low rates of return. Newell and Pizer (2003) used
random walk and mean-reverting models to compute certainty equivalent discount rates that measure
the uncertainty adjusted rate out into the distant future. When applied to climate change scenarios,
their results suggested that the present value of mitigation efforts almost doubled. Hepburn et al.
(2009) extended this result to estimate autoregressive and regime-switching models of U.S. interest
rates and also found that uncertainty-adjusted rates declined more rapidly. Although much of the
recent literature on discounting an uncertainty deals with climate change, uncertainty is also pervasive
in the case of the welfare effects of biodiversity loss and this suggests using lower discount rates in
valuing future losses of biodiversity and ecosystem services.
Discounting and Relative Prices The discount rate is applied to an aggregate consumption good and
an implicit assumption is that the prices of all goods are changing at the same rate. But biodiversity is
not a typical consumption good. For at least two reasonsincreasing scarcity and limits to its
substitutabilitycalculating the rate of change of the relative value of biodiversity will be different
from determining the price of a typical consumption good (Cameron Hepburn, personal
communication). Sterner and Persson (2008, 62) write:
Briefly, because the rate of growth is uneven across sectors of the economy,
the composition of economic output will inevitably change over time. If
output of some material goods (e.g. mobile phones) increases, but access to
environmental goods and services (e.g. access to clean water, rain-fed
agricultural production, or biodiversity) declines, then the relative price of
these environmental amenities should rise over time.
This would mean that the estimated damages from biodiversity loss (or the benefits from biodiversity
preservation) would rise over time and this might be great enough to offset the effect of the positive
discount rate. If this is the case, increasing the amount of biodiversity and ecosystems would be
economically justified (Hoel and Sterner 2007).
Risk Aversion and Insurance A large body of evidence suggests that most people are risk averse
(Kahneman and Tversky 1979). This has major implications for evaluating biodiversity and
Chapter 6: Discounting, ethics, and options for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem integrity
15
ecosystem losses. As in the case of climate change there is a real, although unknown, possibility that
biodiversity loss will have catastrophic effects on human welfare. Paul and Anne Ehrlich (1997) use
the rivet popper analogy to envision the effects of biodiversity loss. A certain number of rivets can
pop out of an airplane body without causing any immediate danger. But once a critical threshold is
reached the airplane becomes unstable and crashes. Likewise, ecosystems are able to maintain
themselves with a certain range of stress, but after a point they may experience a catastrophic flip
from a high biodiversity stable state to another, low diversity stable state. Weitzman (2009) uses the
evidence for a small, but significant, possibility of a runaway greenhouse effect to argue for
aggressive climate change mitigation policies. Weitzmans reasoning might be applied to ecosystem
services considering the possibility of ecosystem collapse once a damage threshold is crossed.
4 Ecosystems and Biodiversity in the Very Long Run
Many economists (for example Spash 2002, chapters 8 and 9) question the appropriateness of
discounting as applied to global and far-reaching issues like biodiversity loss. Ultimately, human
existence depends on maintaining the web of life within which humans co-evolved with other species
and thus the idea of placing a discounted price on total biodiversity is absurd. One may object that
the ability to adapt to environmental change is one of the most striking characteristics of Homo
sapiens (Richerson and Boyd 2005). But the rapidity of current and projected environmental change is
unique in human history. Human activity within the past one hundred years or so has drastically
altered the course of biological evolution on planet Earth. According to a survey by the International
Union for Conservation of Nature, a quarter of mammal species face extinction (Gilbert 2008).
Conservative estimates indicate that 12% of birds are threatened, together with over 30% of
amphibians and 5% of reptiles. Particularly alarming is the state of the worlds oceans. Human-caused
threats to ocean biodiversity are summarized by Jackson (2008, 11458):
Today, the synergistic effects of human impacts are laying the groundwork for a
comparatively great Anthropocene mass extinction in the oceans with unknown
ecological and evolutionary consequences. Synergistic effects of habitat destruction,
overfishing, introduced species, warming, acidification, toxins and mass runoff of
nutrients are transforming once complex ecosystems like coral reefs into monotonous
level bottoms, transforming clear and productive coastal seas into anoxic dead zones,
and transforming complex food webs topped by big animals into simplified,
microbially dominated ecosystems with boom and bust cycles of toxic dinoflagellate
blooms, jellyfish, and disease.
If we modeled ecosystems according to the Solow-Hartwick approach for economic sustainability
(maintaining the capital stock necessary to insure that economic output does not decline) it would
certainly be clear that the ecosystem capital base for sustaining biodiversity is being rapidly
depleted. If the biologists and paleontologists who study the problem are correct, Earth is entering
into its sixth mass extinction of complex life on the planet during the past 570 million years or so.
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: The Ecological and Economic Foundations
16
Biodiversity recovery from past mass extinctions took between 5 and 20 million years (Ward 1994,
Wilson 1998). Past mass extinctions irreversibly restructured the composition of the earths biota
(Krug, Jablonski and Valentine 2009). Even if the final result of the current mass extinction is a
richer, more biologically diverse world, as occurred after past mass extinctions, humans will not be
around to see it. Human-induced biodiversity loss will constrain the evolution of humans and other
species for as long as humans will have inhabited planet Earth. This prospect raises entirely new kinds
of questions about how to value todays impact on future generations. These include:
Functional transparency (Bromley 1989) In many cases the role of a particular species in an
ecosystem is apparent only after it has been removed. The change may be non-linear and irreversible.
The effect on local economies may be catastrophic as in the collapse the Northern Cod fishery due to
overharvesting. More than 40,000 people in Newfoundland lost their jobs and the cod fishery has still
not recovered 15 years after a total moratorium on cod fishing.
Preserving genetic and ecosystem diversity (Gowdy 1997) Evolutionary potential is the ability of a
species or ecosystem to respond to changing conditions in the future. Future conditions are largely
unpredictable (the effects of climate change on biodiversity, for example) but in general the greater
the diversity of an ecosystem, the more resilient that system is (Tilman and Downing 1994).
Preserving options for future generations (Page 1983, Norton 2005) The financial model of
sustainability treats biodiversity as an input for commodity production. Even if the notion of
consumer utility is broadened to include concepts like existence values, the models frame of
reference is still the industrial market economy. The effects of present day biodiversity loss and
ecosystem service disruption will last for millennia. The question becomes how do societies decide
what to leave for future generations if it is impossible to predict what sorts of economies/values/needs
they will have?
5 The Total Value of Ecosystems and Biodiversity and the Discounting
Equation
The total value of ecosystems and biodiversity is unknown but logically the ultimate value to humans
is infinite because if they are reduced beyond a certain point our species could not exist. Biodiversity
value can be seen as layers of a hierarchy moving from market value, to non-market value to humans,
to ecosystem value. These various levels of biodiversity value point to the need for a pluralistic and
flexible methodology to determine appropriate policies for its use and preservation (Gowdy 1997).
The Economic Value of Ecosystems and Biodiversity
Economic value includes the direct economic contributions of biodiversity including eco-tourism,
recreation, and the value of direct biological inputs such as crops, fisheries and forests. These values
can be very large. For example, Geist (1994) estimated that the direct economic value of Wyomings
big game animals, from tourism and hunting, exceeded $1 billion or about $1000 for every large
animal. Although evidence from contingent valuation, hedonic pricing and other economic valuation
Chapter 6: Discounting, ethics, and options for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem integrity
17
tools underscore the importance of biodiversity and ecosystems, these give incomplete, lower-bound
estimates of their values (see Nunes and van den Bergh 2001).
The degree to which an economically valuable biological resource should be exploited is driven by
the social discount rate, r in equation (2) above. The rate is a method for determining (in theory) how
to split the stock of natural capital between consumption now and consumption in the future.
The Socio-Cultural Value of Ecosystems and Biodiversity
The biological world contributes to human psychological well-being in ways that can be empirically
measured (Kellert 1996, Wilson 1994). But measures of subjective well-being cannot be adequately
valued in a traditional social welfare framework (Norton 2005, Orr 2005). Spiritual, cultural,
aesthetic, and other contributions of interacting with nature may be included in a more comprehensive
conception of utility such as the Bentham/Kahneman notion of utility as well-being.
Considering non-market values of biodiversity helps to answer the question of what should be left for
future generations. Is there any reason to think those in the future will not have the same
psychological need for interacting with nature? Is there any reason to believe that a walk in a
rainforest is worth more to a person living now than to a person living 1, 50, or 100 years from now?
The reasonable answer is no. The appropriate discount rate for this part of biodiversity, the pure time
preference of biophilia, is = 0. Another interesting interpretation of in this context would be
consider it as the discount rate if a person were behind a Rawlsian veil of ignorance not knowing
where in time she would be placed (Dasgupta 2008).
The Ecological Value of Biodiversity to Ecosystems
Biologically diverse ecosystems seem to be more resilient to environmental shocks than less diverse
ones (Tilman and Downing 1994) although the relationship between resilience and biodiversity is
complicated (Robinson1992). It is also well established that human activity has degraded terrestrial
and marine ecosystems across the planet. Suppose we expand the discounting rule is expanded further
to include ecosystem integrity itself? This is reasonable since human existence in the long run
depends on preserving our biological context. In the discounting equation (2) suppose g is
considered to be a change in the stock of the Earths biodiversity and ecosystems. With climate
change, continued land clearance and continued exploitation of the worlds fisheries, g is likely to be
negative for decades to come. Let be the value of a marginal change in the state of an ecosystem.
The value of is likely to be larger the more degraded an ecosystem is (more susceptible to changes
in the state of the environment). So the term g applied to ecosystems is likely to be negative, large,
and increasing in the future. This implies making large sacrifices today to improve ecosystems in the
future. Todays generation has prospered by spending much of the natural capital it inherited.
Ethically, they owe it to future generations to rebuild that inheritance.
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: The Ecological and Economic Foundations
18
6 Does a low Discount Rate Promote Conservation?
The discount rate is also relevant to investment and economic performance at the macroeconomic
level which in turn affects biodiversity and ecosystems. At the macroeconomic level there is no
unambiguous relationship between the rate of interest (the mirror image of the discount rate) and the
extent of biodiversity conservation. A low rate of interest can be associated with a high degree of
biodiversity loss and so can a high rate of interest. This follows if the level of investment in human-
made capital is regarded as a major factor leading to ecosystem disruption and biodiversity (Tisdell,
2005, p. 250). That the accumulation of manufactured capital is a major factor resulting in species loss
has been pointed out for a long time (Harting 1880, p. 209, Swanson 1994, Tisdell 1982, p.378, 1991).
Manufactured capital is a produced input using land (the direct use of biodiversity and ecosystems,
and their indirect destruction) and labor.
For simplicity, assume that the real rate of interest depends only on the demand for loanable funds for
investment and on the supply of these funds as a result of savings. Assume further that these demand
and supply curves have normal slopes. First, it can be observed that in this case, an increase in the rate
of interest can come about either because the demand for loanable funds rises (due to an increase in
the marginal efficiency of capital), other things kept constant, or due to fall in the willingness to save,
other things unchanged. These two situations are illustrated in Figures 4and 5 respectively. In the case
shown in Figure 4, the demand for loanable funds rises from D
1
D
1
to D
2
D
2
and the supply curve of
these funds remains unaltered as shown by S
1
S
1
. The equilibrium in the loanable funds market
changes from E
1
to E
2
and the rate of interest rises from r
1
to r
2
. The amount of funds invested goes up
from X
1
to X
2
. This result is unfavorable to biodiversity conservation because it results in more capital
accumulation and conversion of natural resources into man-made capital. On the other hand, in the
case illustrated by Figure 4, a rise in the rate of interest is associated with a reduction in the level of
investment and therefore is favorable to biodiversity conservation.
r
r
2
r
1
O X
1
X
2
X
Quantity of loanable funds
D
1
D
2
S
1
E
1
E
2
D
1
D
2
S
1
Rate of
interest
Chapter 6: Discounting, ethics, and options for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem integrity
19
Figure 4 A case in which a rising rate of interest is associated with a rise in the
level of investment in man-made capital; a consequence likely to have an adverse impact
on biodiversity conservation.
In this case, the demand curve for loanable funds, D
1
D
1
is stationary but the willingness to supply
loanable funds declines, as shown by the supply line being initially S
1
S
1
and subsequently S
2
S
2
.
Market equilibrium alters from E
1
to E
2
and the rate of interest rises from r
1
to r
2
. However, in this
case, the level of investment falls from X
1
to X
0
, and the result is favorable to biodiversity
conservation.
Converse results also apply. If the demand curve in the case illustrated in Figure 4 shifts downwards
rather than upwards, the rate of interest falls but investment does likewise. On the other hand, if the
supply curve of loanable funds moves downwards in the case illustrated by Figure 5, the interest rate
falls but the level of investment rises. The fall in the interest rate in the former case is favorable to
biodiversity conservation but not in the latter one.
Other examples could also be given. The ones above, however, are sufficient to show that at the
macro-level, changes in the rate of interest can be associated (depending on the circumstances) with
an increase or decrease in the level of investment in man-made capital. If investment in human-made
capital is seen as the main threat to biodiversity and ecosystem conservation (a reasonable
proposition) then it can be concluded that the level of the real rate of interest is not closely connected
to the degree of biodiversity conservation. This suggests that, at the macroeconomic level, the focus
of concern ought to be on variations in the level of human-made capital rather than on the rate of
interest as a major influence on biodiversity conservation.
r
r
2
r
1
O X
0
X
1
X
S
1
S
2
E
2
E
1
S
1
S
2
D
1
D
1
Quantity of loanable funds
Rate of
interest
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: The Ecological and Economic Foundations
20
Figure 5 A case in which a rise in the rate of interest is associated with a decline in
the level of investment in man-made capital. This case is likely to be favorable to
biodiversity conservation.
This point, however, provides only a limited insight into the determinants of capital accumulation. For
instance, savings and investment levels tend to rise as aggregate income increases. Investment is
usually the basis for further capital accumulation because of its impact on economic growth rising
incomes result in greater levels of saving and investment. Massive increase in capital accumulation
since the Industrial Revolution has had extremely adverse consequences for the conservation of
biodiversity.
Keynes (1936, Chapters 16 and 24) thought it possible that capital could accumulate in modern times
to such an extent that the marginal efficiency of capital would become zero. But of course, he only
had in mind manufactured capital. This would result in Keynes view in the rate of interest being zero
or close to it. Yet it can be hypothesized that in order to reach this stationary state would require a
tremendous conversion of natural resources into human-made capital resulting in great biodiversity
loss. Consequently, a zero rate of interest can be associated in this instance with major loss of
biodiversity. This observation reinforces the position of the TEEB interim report (EC 2009) that a
variety of discount rates are needed depending on the scale (economy-wide, local community or
individual), the timeframe (immediate or distant future), and income group being considered (rich or
poor).
7 Discounting and Safe Minimum Standards
Resource economics has a long tradition in of applying a higher discount rate to the benefits of
development and a lower rate to the environmental costs of that development. Fisher and Krutilla
(1985) suggest a formula for estimating the net present value for a development project that reduces
to:
NPV(D) = -1 + D/(r+k) P(r-h) (4)
Where D is the value of development and P is the value of preservation. In this setup, a factor k is
added to the discount rate applied to development benefits to reflect the depreciation of development
benefits over time. In a similar vein, a factor h is subtracted from the rate of discount applied to the
benefits of preservation. Here h is supposed to represent growth in the value of environmental
services over time based on increased material prosperity that augments willingness to pay for scarce
nonmarket goods. No hard and fast rules can be applied to determine exactly how much these
discount rates should be adjusted.
This status quo bias mentioned above lends support to the notion of a safe minimum standard (SMS)
and the precautionary principle. The SMS approach (Bishop 1978) explicitly recognizes that
Chapter 6: Discounting, ethics, and options for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem integrity
21
irreversible environmental damage should be avoided unless the social costs of doing so are
unacceptably high. The concept is necessarily vague because it does not rely on a single money
metric. It recognizes that a discount premium should be applied to environmental losses, economic
gains should be discounted more heavily, a great amount of uncertainty is involved in judging the
effects of environmental losses, and there are limits to substituting manufactured goods for
environmental resources.
Rights-based or deontological values are widely held, as indicated by numerous valuation surveys
(Lockwood 1998, Spash 1997, Stevens et al. 1991). A rights-based approach may be especially
appropriate for policies affecting future generations (Howarth 2007, Page 1983). Do future
generations have a right to clean air, clean water, and an interesting and varied environment? There is
no reason to think that future generations would be any more willing than the current one to have
something taken away from them forever (especially things like a stable climate and biological
species) unless they are compensated by something of equal value. A rights-based approach to
sustainability moves away from the welfare notions of tradeoffs and fungibility toward the two
interrelated concerns of uniqueness and irreversibility. As Bromley (1998, 238) writes: Regard for
the future through social bequests shifts the analytical problem to a discussion about deciding what,
rather than how much, to leave for those who will follow. The question of what to leave also moves
away from marginal analysis, and concern only about relative amounts of resources, toward looking at
discontinuous changes and the basic biological requirements of the human species in evolutionary
context.
It is often argued that only the wealthy have the luxury to be concerned about environmental quality.
This is the so-called post-materialist thesis of Inglehart (1990), Krutilla (1967) and others.
Martinez-Alier (1995) points out two flaws in this thesis. First, continued material growth implies
environmental degradation, and second, the worlds poorest receive a large percentage of their
livelihoods directly from ecosystems (firewood, water, fish and game). The GDP of the poor (EC
2008) is undervalued because so much of it depends on un-priced inputs from nature. Yet, in general
it is the rich who decide whether or not to preserve biodiversity and ecosystems based on market rates
of interest and investment opportunities. On one hand, the poor have a larger stake in preserving flows
of ecosystem services, but on the other hand a large percentage of the worlds poor are in such a
desperate position that they have very high discount rates. Cultural differences are also critical, not
only between the rich and poor but also among the diverse cultures of the worlds poorest. Traditional
cultures in general have a reverence for the natural world but specific practices and cultural attitudes
toward nature vary considerably. Likewise large variations exist in the environmental attitudes of the
wealthy (Bandara and Tisdell 2004).
Table 1 is a broad attempt to translate these general observations into discount rates. Here, rich
generally means the middle and upper middle class population of North America, Japan, and Europe.
A sizable portion of the worlds wealthiest may not fit this category. Poor generally means the 1
billion or so of the worlds population living on less than $1 a day (World Bank estimate). This group
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: The Ecological and Economic Foundations
22
is also heterogeneous. The bottom line is that characterizing responsibilities to future generations by a
discount rate does not do justice to the nuances of human cultures, the heterogeneous nature of the
many contributors to well-being, or the pure uncertainty as to the future of Homo sapiens on planet
earth.
Chapter 6: Discounting, ethics, and options for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem integrity
23
Table 1 General Observation about Life Opportunities and Discounting
Ecosystem Services Manufactured Capital
Poor = low in the case of = low, maintain capital stock for
traditional cultures future generations
= positive for cultures = positive cultures under stress may be
under severe stress unable to invest in capital stock
maintenance
= likely to be very high = very high
any increment to
consumption will add to
well-being
g = for the very poor, likely to be negative (future generations will be
worse off because of deteriorating environmental conditions, but this
cannot be taken into account in economic decisions).
Consider its value to be 1 so that ng is large.
Rich = 0 (ethical responsibility = 0 or (-) maintain or increase natural
to future generations capital stock for the future
= positive, higher incomes = 0 or negative. More capital means
imply higher income elasticities more consumption, but not
for environmental goods an increase in well-being
g = negative for the very rich to compensate for past natural capital
destruction, also even if future generations have more material wealth,
does this mean they need less biodiversity?
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: The Ecological and Economic Foundations
24
8 Summary of the Major Challenges to Discounting Biodiversity and
Ecosystem Losses
Even a few years ago economists were quite confident about the ability of the standard economic
model to capture the future values of environmental features. But recent debates among economists
over two of the most pressing issues of our time, biodiversity loss and climate change, have made it
clear that no purely economic guidelines are available for valuing essential and irreplaceable features
of the natural world. Responsibility to future generations is a matter of inter- and intra-generational
ethics, best guesses about the well-being of those who will live in the future, and preserving life
opportunities for humans and the rest of the living world. Economics can offer valuable insights, as
the discussion surrounding the Ramsey equation has shown, but ultimately economic value represents
only a small portion of the total value of biodiversity and ecosystems. The practice of discounting
applies first and foremost to an individual deciding how to allocate scarce resources at a particular
point in time. In general, an individual would prefer to have something now rather than in the
future, though with some exceptions (the value of anticipation, for example). This is the main
argument for a positive discount rate. But, again in general, a higher discount rate will lead to the
long-term degradation of biodiversity and ecosystems. For example, a 5% discount rate implies that
biodiversity loss 50 years from now will be valued at only 1/7 of the same amount of biodiversity
loss today. This leads to the following observations:
1. There is a fundamental difference between the individual-at-a-point-in-time discount rate and
the social discount rate. The Ramsey equation (r = + g as discussed above) can help to
illuminate this difference. Ethical responsibility to future generations is captured, in part, by
the term , the rate of pure time preference. Although there is still considerable disagreement
among economists, a strong case can be made that should be near zero, indicating that there
is no reason to place a lower value on the well-being of a person who happens to be born later
in time than another person.
2. In terms of the discounting equation, estimates of how well-off those in the future will be (g)
is the key factor as to how much we should leave the future. Should we use income or
subjective well-being, or some guess about basic needs? g should encompass everything that
gives people utility including intangible benefits of nature (Dasgupta and Mler 2000). In
practice, however, per capita consumption is usually used as a proxy for well-being (Stern
2007).
3. A critical factor in discounting is the importance of environmental draw-down (destruction of
natural capital) to estimates of the future growth rate of per capita consumption, g. Some
evidence indicates that the current generation has prospered by drawing down savings
(natural capital) that should have been passed to our descendents. A case can be made that
estimates of g (and of the discount rate) should be negative.
4. In contrast to the recommendations of conventional economists, a variety of discount rates,
including zero and negative rates, should be used depending on the time period involved, the
Chapter 6: Discounting, ethics, and options for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem integrity
25
degree of uncertainty, ethical responsibilities to the worlds poorest, and the scope of project
or policy being evaluated.
5. A low discount rate for the entire economy might favor more investment and growth and
more environmental destruction. Macroeconomic consequences of a particular discount rate
should be considered separately from microeconomic ones.
6. The rich and poor differ greatly in their direct dependence on biodiversity and the services of
ecosystems. The worlds poorest, probably numbering in the billions, live to a large extent
directly on ecosystem services and biodiversity (Gundimeda and Sukdev 2008). These people
are suffering disproportionally from the loss of ecosystems and biodiversity.
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: The Ecological and Economic Foundations
26
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i
Equation (1) will take different forms depending on whether we consider discrete or continuous time, whether
or not we allow population growth, or whether we consider per capita consumption or total consumption. See
the discussion in Arrow, Dasgupta and Mler 2003.
ii
Hepburn (2006) suggests that the recent literature on optimal paternalism calls for correcting internalities,
that is, behavior damaging to the individual. A lower discount rate might be imposed by a paternalistic
government to insure the optimal preservation of biological diversity.
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: The Ecological and Economic Foundations
34
iii
On the other hand Lind (1982) argues that the risk and insurance aspects of an investment should not be
accounted for by adjusting the social rate of time preference but rather by adjusting the estimates of costs and
benefits.
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity
The Ecological and Economic Foundation
Chapter 7
Key Messages and Linkages with ational and Local !olicies
Coordinating Lead Author
Pushpam Kumar
Lead Authors
Eduardo Brondizio, Thomas Elmqvist, Franz Gatzweiler, ohn Gowd!, "ol# de Groot, $oldan
%uradian, &nai Pas'ual, Belinda $e!ers, $odne! B( )( *mith, Pavan *u+hdev
,
Contents
"ynthesis
# Framing o# issues #or e'onomi's o# e'os!stems and -iodiversit!
$ Lin+ages o# e'os!stems, e'os!stem servi'es and -iodiversit!
% Choi'e o# indi'ators and value.arti'ulating institutions in e'onomi' valuation
& E'onomi' value, valuation methods, non.linear 'hanges, resilien'e and un'ertaint!
' "is'ounting as an ethi'al 'hoi'e
( /denti#i'ation o# +nowledge gaps and limitations and mapping them into national poli'ies0
Challenges and options
1(, Lin+s -etween -iodiversit!, e'os!stems and resilien'e
1(2 "!nami's o# e'os!stem servi'es
1(3 &nderstanding the d!nami's o# governan'e and management o# e'os!stems and
e'os!stem servi'es
1(4 5aluation methods and -ene#it trans#er
1(6 5aluations and its 'onte7t
1(1 From mi'ro #oundation to ma'ro poli'!
)eferences
2
"ynthesis
8ne o# the ma9or o-9e'tives o# this TEEB -oo+ is to assess 'urrent approa'hes #or using
e'ologi'al s'ien'es and e'onomi's #or in#ormed 'hoi'es and de'ision ma+ing( 8n the one hand
TEEB intends to -etter in#orm 'onventional e'onomi' poli'! a-out its impa'ts on e'os!stem
health and -iodiversit!, on the other it suggests wa!s to mainstream the valuation o# e'os!stem
servi'es into national and lo'al planning and poli'ies as well as -usiness assessments o# their
e'onomi' impa'ts and dependen'ies on -iodiversit!( The previous si7 'hapters assess the state o#
art o# our s'ienti#i' understanding underl!ing e'onomi' anal!sis o# e'os!stem servi'es and
-iodiversit!( Chapter , in this volume identi#ies several 'hallenges in integrating the dis'iplines
o# e'olog! and e'onomi's and organizes the 'omple7ities o# the pro-lem resulting #rom the
di##eren'es in methodologi'al #ramewor+s in relation to variation in temporal and spatial s'ales(
For e7ample, the relevant time horizon #or a 'ost:-ene#it anal!sis o# a##orestation or e'os!stem
restoration pro9e't is ,;:2; !ears while the 'hanges in -iodiversit! 'ould o''ur on a time s'ale
ranging #rom short : a #ra'tion o# a se'ond <mole'ular level= to long : millions o# !ears <-iome
level=( Chapter 2 highlights that e'os!stems t!pi'all! produ'e multiple servi'es that intera't in
'omple7 wa!s( A resilient e'os!stem maintains a #low o# e'os!stem servi'es on a 'ontinuous
-asis, -ut e'os!stems ma! or ma! not -e resilient to anthropogeni' distur-an'es( Chapter 3
suggests that -iodiversit! and e'os!stems are amena-le to e'onomi' anal!sis onl! i# the! 'an -e
quanti#ied and several approa'hes #or developing indi'ators are dis'ussed( Chapters 4 and 6
together highlight the so'io.'ultural em-eddedness o# e'os!stem servi'e and -iodiversit!
valuation, as well as its 'onstraints and limitations( Chapter 4 outlines the role and importan'e o#
valuation as a human institution and pla'es in 'onte7t the role o# economic valuation( Chapter 6
e7plains how, #or a 'hosen set o# e'os!stem indi'ators and within a stru'tured e'onomi'
valuation #ramewor+, there 'ould -e relia-le approa'hes #or the e'onomi' valuation o#
e'os!stem servi'es(( Chapter 6 also highlights 'ommonl! pra'tised methods o# e'os!stem
servi'e valuation, and dis'usses their 'onstraints and limitations( Chapter 1 assesses the -asis o#
'hoosing appropriate dis'ount rates to -e applied to a pro9e't with impa'ts on e'os!stems and
-iodiversit!(
/n this 'hapter we attempt to summarize the +e! lessons learned #rom the assessments done in
Chapters ,:1( The summar! 'an -e 'ategorized under the #ollowing headings0
3
# Framing of issues for economics of ecosystems and *iodiversity
The stud! o# the e'onomi's o# e'os!stem servi'es and -iodiversit! strongl! emphasizes the 9oint
e##ort o# e'olog! and e'onomi's( There is a growing need #or 'olla-oration -etween e'ologists
and e'onomists to have a 'oherent perspe'tive on the trade.o##s re#le'ted in individual and
so'ietal 'hoi'e <Polas+! and *egerson, 2;;>=( Even i# the outloo+s o# the two dis'iplines di##er,
the s'ale o# the pro-lem requires that solutions 'an onl! emerge in ma+ing the methodolog!
more porous and #luid in order to em-ra'e ea'h other?s ta+e on the pro-lem( )e #ind that0
,( Lin+ing -ioph!si'al aspe'ts o# e'os!stems with human -ene#its through the notion o#
e'os!stem servi'es is essential to assess the trade.o##s involved in the loss o# e'os!stems and
-iodiversit! in a 'lear and 'onsistent manner(
2( E'onomi' assessment should -e spatiall! and temporall! e7pli'it at s'ales meaning#ul #or
poli'! #ormation or interventions, inherentl! a'+nowledging that -oth e'ologi'al #un'tioning and
e'onomi' values are 'onte7tual, anthropo'entri', individual.-ased and time spe'i#i'(
3( E'onomi' assessment should #irst aim to determine the servi'e deliver! in -ioph!si'al terms,
to provide e'ologi'al underpinning to the e'onomi' valuation or measurement with alternative
metri's(
4( Clearl! distinguishing -etween #un'tions, servi'es and -ene#its is important to ma+e
e'os!stem assessments more a''essi-le to e'onomi' valuation, although no 'onsensus has !et
-een rea'hed on the 'lassi#i'ation(
6( E'os!stem assessments should -e set within the 'onte7t o# 'ontrasting s'enarios : re'ognizing
that -oth the values o# e'os!stem servi'es and the 'osts o# a'tions 'an -e -est measured as a
#un'tion o# 'hanges -etween alternative options(
1( /n assessing trade.o##s -etween alternative uses o# e'os!stems, the total -undle o# e'os!stem
servi'es provided -! di##erent 'onversion and management states should -e in'luded(
4
@( An! valuation stud! should -e #ull! aware o# the A'ost? side o# the equation, as #o'us on
-ene#its onl! ignores important so'ietal 'osts su'h as missed opportunities o# alternative usesB
this also allows #or a more e7tensive range o# so'ietal values to -e 'onsidered(
C( E'onomi' assessments should integrate an anal!sis o# ris+s and un'ertainties, a'+nowledging
the limitations o# +nowledge on the impa'ts o# human a'tions on e'os!stems and their servi'es
and on their importan'e to human well.-eing(
>( /n order to improve in'entive stru'tures and institutions, the di##erent sta+eholders : that is,
the -ene#i'iaries o# e'os!stem servi'es, those who are providing the servi'es, those involved in
or a##e'ted -! the use, and the a'tors involved at di##erent levels o# de'ision ma+ing : should -e
'learl! identi#ied, and de'ision ma+ing pro'esses need to -e transparent(
,;( E##orts aimed at 'hanging -ehaviour o# individuals and so'iet! towards their impa't on
e'os!stems and -iodiversit! must ta+e into a''ount that e'os!stems have alwa!s -een d!nami',
-oth internall! and in response to 'hanging environments(
,,( The importan'e o# using s'enarios in e'os!stem servi'e assessments is -eginning to -e
realized as earl! assessments presented a stati' pi'ture in a rapidl! 'hanging world( The
ne'essit! o# providing 'ounter.#a'tual eviden'e is now -eing demanded o# 'onservation resear'h
<Ferraro and Pattana!a+, 2;;1= and should -e'ome the norm in e'os!stem servi'e resear'h as
well(
,2( The generation o# s'enarios is parti'ularl! important #or monetar! valuation, sin'e s'enarios
ena-le anal!sis o# 'hanges in servi'e deliver! whi'h are required to o-tain marginal values(
%a+ing an anal!sis in in'remental terms avoids <or at least redu'es= the methodologi'al
di##i'ulties whi'h arise, depending on the relative magnitude o# 'hanges, espe'iall! when
attempting to estimate total values given the non.'onstan'! o# marginal values asso'iated with
the 'omplete loss o# an e'os!stem servi'e(
6
,3( /n the TEEB 'onte7t, 'omparing the outputs under several s'enarios will in#orm de'ision
ma+ers o# the wel#are gains and losses o# alternative possi-le #utures and di##erent asso'iated
poli'! pa'+ages(
,4( Indirect drivers o# e'os!stem 'hange in'lude demographi' shi#ts, te'hnolog! innovations,
e'onomi' development, legal and institutional #ramewor+s, in'luding poli'! instruments, the
stead! loss o# traditional +nowledge and 'ultural diversit! and man! other #a'tors that in#luen'e
our 'olle'tive de'isions(
,6( All e'os!stems are shaped -! people, dire'tl! or indire'tl! and all people, ri'h or poor, rural
or ur-an, depend dire'tl! or indire'tl! on the 'apa'it! o# e'os!stems to generate essential
e'os!stem servi'es( /n this sense, people and e'os!stems are interdependent so'ial.e'ologi'al
s!stems( /t is not surprising that around ,(2 -illion poor people are lo'ated in #ragile and
vulnera-le e'os!stems -ut it is not primaril! the a'tions o# the poor that a##e't those #ragile
e'os!stems -ut rather the a'tions o# Ari'h? people who inter#ere with them and put in question the
dependen'e o# the poor <Bar-ier, 2;;C=(
$ Linkages of ecosystem+ ecosystem services and *iodiversity
A 'lear understanding o# the lin+s -etween e'os!stems and e'os!stem servi'es, and how
variation in -iodiversit! a##e'ts e'os!stem d!nami's is needed to map the temporal and spatial
#low o# servi'es( This will not onl! help in ma+ing ro-ust valuations -ut would avoid dou-le
'ounting and provide ne'essar! 'aveats while up.s'aling the value #rom lo'al to national and
regional s'ale( )e #ind that0
,( 5ariation in -iologi'al diversit! relates to the #un'tion o# e'os!stems in at least three wa!s0 <i=
in'rease in diversit! o#ten leads to an in'rease in produ'tivit! due to 'omplementar! traits among
spe'ies #or resour'e use, and produ'tivit! itsel# underpins man! e'os!stem servi'esB <ii=
in'reased diversit! leads to an in'rease in response diversit! <range o# traits related to how
spe'ies within the same #un'tional group respond to environmental drivers= resulting in less
1
varia-ilit! in #un'tioning over time as environment 'hangesB <iii= idios!n'rati' e##e'ts due to
+e!stone spe'ies properties and unique trait.'om-inations whi'h ma! result in a disproportional
e##e't o# losing one parti'ular spe'ies 'ompared to the e##e't o# losing individual spe'ies at
random(
2( E'os!stems produ'e multiple servi'es and these intera't in 'omple7 wa!s, di##erent servi'es
-eing interlin+ed, -oth negativel! and positivel!( "eliver! o# man! servi'es will there#ore var!
in a 'orrelated manner, -ut when an e'os!stem is managed prin'ipall! #or the deliver! o# a single
servi'e <e(g( #ood produ'tion= other servi'es are nearl! alwa!s a##e'ted negativel!(
3( E'os!stems var! in their a-ilit! to -u##er and adapt to -oth natural and anthropogeni' 'hanges
as well as re'over a#ter 'hanges <i(e( resilien'e=( )hen su-9e'ted to severe 'hange, e'os!stems
ma! 'ross thresholds and move into di##erent and o#ten less desira-le e'ologi'al states or
tra9e'tories( A ma9or 'hallenge is how to design e'os!stem management in wa!s that maintain
resilien'e and avoid the passing o# undesira-le thresholds(
4( There is 'lear eviden'e #or a 'entral role o# -iodiversit! in the deliver! o# some : -ut not all :
servi'es, viewed individuall!( Dowever, e'os!stems need to -e managed to deliver multiple
servi'es to sustain human well.-eing and also managed at the level o# lands'apes and seas'apes
in wa!s that avoid the passing o# dangerous tipping.points( )e 'an state with high 'ertaint! that
maintaining #un'tioning e'os!stems 'apa-le o# delivering multiple servi'es requires a general
approa'h to sustaining -iodiversit!, in the long term also when a single servi'e is the #o'us(
6( )hen predi'ting the impa't o# -iodiversit! 'hange on varia-ilit! in the suppl! o# e'os!stem
servi'es, we need to measure the impa't o# -iodiversit! 'onservation over a range o#
environmental 'onditions( /n the same wa!, we need to -e a-le to identi#! the e##e't o#
-iodiversit! 'hange on the 'apa'it! o# so'ial.e'ologi'al s!stems to a-sor- anthropogeni' and
environmental stresses and sho'+s without loss o# value <*'he##er et al, 2;;,B Kinzig et al,
2;;1=(
@
1( To understand and enhan'e the resilien'e o# su'h 'omple7, 'oupled s!stems, we need ro-ust
models o# the lin+ages -etween -iodiversit! and e'os!stem servi'es, and -etween -iodiversit!
'hange and human well.-eing <Perrings, 2;;@B Perrings et al, 2;;>=(
% Choice of indicators and value,articulating institutions
E'onomi' anal!sis, espe'iall! the evaluation o# 'hanges in e'os!stem servi'es due to marginal
'hange in intervention and poli'ies, requires 'are#ul 'hoi'e o# indi'ators and measures( The
so'ial and 'ultural 'onte7ts in whi'h value arti'ulating institutions e7ist and reveal value must -e
+nown to those assigning e'onomi' values( Esta-lishing these prerequisites would also provide
greater 'redi-ilit! to the estimates that #ollow( )e #ind that0
,( A la'+ o# relevant in#ormation at di##erent s'ales has hampered the a-ilit! to assess the
e'onomi' 'onsequen'es o# the loss o# e'os!stems and -iodiversit!(
2( %ost o# the 'urrent measures and indi'ators o# -iodiversit! and e'os!stems were developed
#or purposes other than the e'onomi' assessment( The! are there#ore una-le to show 'lear
relationships -etween 'omponents o# -iodiversit! and the servi'es or -ene#its the! provide to
people(
3( A relian'e on these e7isting measures will in all li+elihood 'apture the value o# onl! a #ew
spe'ies and e'os!stems relevant to #ood and #i-re produ'tion, and will miss out the role o#
-iodiversit! and e'os!stems in supporting the #ull range o# -ene#its, as well as their resilien'e
into the #uture(
4( A set o# indi'ators is needed that is not onl! relevant and a-le to 'onve! the message o# the
'onsequen'es o# -iodiversit! loss, -ut must also -e -ased on a''epted methods that re#le't the
aspe'ts o# -iodiversit! involved and the servi'e that is o# interest, 'apture the o#ten non.linear
and multi.s'ale relationships -etween e'os!stems and the -ene#its that the! provide, and -e
'onverti-le into e'onomi' terms(
6( )hile it is possi-le to o-tain preliminar! estimates o# the 'onsequen'es o# -iodiversit! and
C
e'os!stem loss using e7isting data and measures, these must -e 'omplemented with a'tive
resear'h and development into the measurement o# -iodiversit! and e'os!stem 'hange, their
lin+s to -ene#it #lows and the value o# these #lows so as to realize the #ull value o# -iodiversit!
and e'os!stem management
1( The #low o# e'os!stem servi'es #rom point o# produ'tion to point o# use is in#luen'ed -! -oth
-ioph!si'al <e(g( 'urrents, migration= and anthropogeni' <e(g( trade, a''ess= pro'esses whi'h
in#luen'e the s'ale o# servi'e #low #rom lo'all! produ'ed and used servi'es <e(g( soil produ'tion=
to glo-all! distri-uted -ene#its <e(g( 'ar-on sequestration #or 'limate regulation=(
@( /n order to ma+e a 'omprehensive and 'ompelling e'onomi' 'ase #or the 'onservation o#
e'os!stems and -iodiversit! it is essential to -e a-le to understand, quanti#! and map the -ene#its
re'eived #rom e'os!stems and -iodiversit!, and assign values to those -ene#its(
C( Bioph!si'al measurements are important sin'e -iodiversit! underpins the deliver! o# man!
e'os!stem servi'es and thus #orms the underl!ing -asis o# value(
>( 5aluation, in'luding e'onomi' valuation, #un'tions as a s!stem o# 'ultural pro9e'tion whi'h
imposes a wa! o# thin+ing and a #orm o# relationship with the environment and re#le'ts parti'ular
per'eived realities, worldviews, mind sets and -elie# s!stems( Dowever, it 'an also serve as a
tool #or sel#.re#le'tion and #eed-a'+ me'hanism whi'h helps people rethin+ their relations to the
natural environment and in'rease +nowledge a-out the 'onsequen'es o# 'onsumption, 'hoi'es
and -ehaviour(
,;( "ue to multidimensional and so'io.'ultural em-eddedness o# value an! e7er'ise o# valuation
is relative to a given individual or group o# people( /n a multi'ultural and demo'rati' 'onte7t o#
-iodiversit! valuation, this ma+es the question o# 'hoosing a value.arti'ulating institution more
important than that o# #inding a 'orre't value(
,,( E'onomi' valuation in#luen'es the notion o# ownership and propert! applied to -iodiversit!
and over the long term ma! 'hange human relationship to the environment in signi#i'ant wa!s(
>
,2( /ntrinsi' values are 'ulturall! em-edded( The! 'an -e ta+en into a''ount -! 'hoosing the
appropriate institutions whi'h allow their arti'ulation in addition to utilitarian values(
,3( 5aluation pro'esses 'an -e seen as a #orm o# regulator! adaptation -! serving as a
me'hanism to provide #eed-a'+ in a an e'onomi' s!stem where produ'tion and 'onsumption,
trade and e7'hange are so distant #rom the underl!ing e'os!stem and so 'omple7 in their
'ommer'ial stru'ture that the! ma! undermine per'eptions o# the impa'ts o# human ha-its and
-ehaviours on the natural environment(
,4( 5alue 'hange along the 'ommodit! 'hain has impli'ations #or the distri-ution o# -ene#its,
a##e'ts the level o# in'entives #or 'onservation and represents an important methodologi'al
'hallenge #or e'onomi' valuation(
,6( E'onomi' valuation ma! 'ontri-ute to address our ina-ilit!, relu'tan'e or ideologi'al
intoleran'e to ad9ust institutions <also those whi'h are value arti'ulating= to our +nowledge o#
e'os!stems, -iodiversit! and the human -eing(
,1( E'onomi' valuation is a 'omple7, spatial and institutional 'ross.s'ale pro-lem( %an! e##orts
#o'using on parti'ular parts o# e'os!stems or spe'ies, while e##e'tive at one level, la'+ the s'ope
to 'ontrol the pressure o# 'ommodit! mar+ets #or land resour'es surrounding them( As su'h, and
depending on their -ioph!si'al 'onte7t, the! ma! -e limited to 'apturing the lin+ages and
verti'al interpla! 'reated -! a growing #un'tional interdependen'! o# resour'e.use s!stems
nested within larger e'os!stems(
& Economic value+ valuation methods+ non,linear changes+ resilience and uncertainty
Dow to value e'os!stem servi'es, what are the tools availa-le, and what are the assumptions
ne'essar! to arrive at 'redi-le and transparent estimates and #inall! 'ome out with re'ommended
methods to appl! in a situation o# non.linear 'hanges remain the main mandate o# TEEB( The
literature on valuation is #ull o# good suggestions <Freeman, 2;;3B Deal et al, 2;;6B Bar-ier,
2;;@B Danle! and Bar-ier, 2;;>B Bar-ier, 2;;>B At+inson, 2;,;, Bateman et al, 2;,;=( Eet
,;
valuation te'hniques #a'e important 'hallenges espe'iall! regarding un'ertaint!, irreversi-ilit!
and resilien'e( The! are t!pi'all! #ound while valuing the regulating servi'es o# e'os!stems
<Kumar and )ood, 2;,;=( 8ur assessment suggests that0
,( Estimating the value o# the various servi'es and -ene#its that e'os!stems and -iodiversit!
generate ma! -e a'hieved with a variet! o# valuation approa'hes( Appl!ing a 'om-ination o#
approa'hes ma! over'ome disadvantages o# rel!ing solel! on an individual method(
2( 5aluation te'hniques in general and stated pre#eren'e methods spe'i#i'all! are a##e'ted -!
un'ertaint! stemming #rom gaps in +nowledge a-out e'os!stem d!nami's, human pre#eren'es
and te'hni'al issues in the valuation pro'ess( There is a need to in'lude un'ertaint! issues in
valuation studies( Dowever, when un'ertaint! is 'ompounded -! ignoran'e a-out e'os!stem
#un'tioning or when there is even a small possi-ilit! o# disastrous damages, su'h as 'omplete
e'ologi'al 'ollapse o# e'os!stems, 'urrent valuation te'hniques used to estimate values to #eed
into e7tended 'ost:-ene#it anal!ses are insu##i'ient(
3( 5aluation results will -e heavil! dependent on so'ial, 'ultural and e'onomi' 'onte7ts, the
-oundaries o# whi'h ma! not overlap with the delineation o# the relevant e'ologi'al s!stem( /t is
li+el! that -etter valuation 'an -e a'hieved -! identi#!ing and involving relevant sta+eholders(
4( /mplementation o# valuation approa'hes that ma! -e suita-le #or some developed regions ma!
-e inadequate in developing 'ountries, thus not -eing immediatel! trans#era-le( Den'e, standard
valuations approa'hes need to -e 'are#ull! adapted to a''ount #or parti'ular 'hallenges that arise
in developing 'ountries(
6( )hile -ene#its trans#er methods ma! seem a pra'ti'al, swi#t and 'heaper wa! to get an
estimate o# the value o# lo'al e'os!stems, parti'ularl! when the aim is to assess a large num-er
o# diverse e'os!stems, due 'are should -e e7er'ised in their use espe'iall! when +e! #eatures o#
Asites?, su'h as e'os!stem d!nami's, so'io.e'onomi' and 'ultural 'onte7ts, largel! di##er one
#rom another(
,,
1( Bene#it trans#er methods 'an -e divided into #our 'ategories in in'reasing order o# 'omple7it!0
<i= unit BTB <ii= ad9usted unit BTB <iii= value #un'tion trans#erB and <iv= meta.anal!ti' #un'tion
trans#er( BT using an! o# these methods ma! result in estimates that di##er #rom a'tual values, so.
'alled trans#er errors( The a''epta-le level o# trans#er error #or de'ision ma+ing is 'onte7t.
spe'i#i', -ut i# a highl! pre'ise value estimate is required it is re'ommended to 'ommission a
primar! valuation stud!(
@( E'onomi' valuation 'an provide use#ul in#ormation a-out 'hanges to wel#are that will result
#rom e'os!stem management a'tions, espe'iall! with regard to lo'alized impa'ts that are #airl!
well +nown and #ar #rom e'ologi'al thresholds(
C( 5aluation pra'titioners should a'+nowledge that valuation te'hniques #a'e limitations that are
as !et unresolved( The! should present their results as su'h, and de'ision ma+ers should interpret
and use valuation data a''ordingl!(
>( The limitations o# monetar! valuation are espe'iall! important as e'os!stems approa'h 'riti'al
thresholds and e'os!stem 'hange is irreversi-le, or reversi-le onl! at e7treme 'ost( /n this 'ase
and until more understanding o# e'ologi'al d!nami's and te'hniques to estimate the insuran'e
value o# -iodiversit! or the value o# e'os!stem resilien'e -e'ome availa-le, under 'onditions o#
high un'ertaint! and e7isten'e o# e'ologi'al thresholds, poli'! should -e guided -! the Asa#e.
minimum.standard? and Apre'autionar! approa'h? prin'iples(
,;( There are three sour'es o# un'ertaint! pervading valuation o# e'os!stem servi'es and
-iodiversit! that have -een ta+en into a''ount0 <i= un'ertaint! regarding the deliver! or suppl! o#
e'os!stem servi'es and -iodiversit!B <ii= pre#eren'e un'ertaint!B and <iii= te'hni'al un'ertaint! in
the appli'ation o# valuation methods( *ome promising approa'hes are -eing developed to tr! to
a''ount #or su'h t!pes o# un'ertaint! -ut generall! valuation appli'ations disregard the
un'ertaint! #a'tor(
,,( The un'ertaint! regarding the deliver! o# e'os!stem servi'es ma+es stated pre#eren'e
methods 'omple7( *tated pre#eren'e methods have generall! resorted to measuring respondents?
,2
ris+ per'eptions( 8ther valuation approa'hes -ased on e7pe'ted damage #un'tions are -ased on
ris+ anal!sis instead(
,2( Pre#eren'e un'ertaint! is inversel! related to the level o# +nowledge and e7perien'e with the
e'os!stem servi'e to -e valued( This sour'e o# un'ertaint! has -een relativel! -etter
a'+nowledged in stated pre#eren'e approa'hes, #or instan'e -! requesting respondents to report a
range o# values rather than a spe'i#i' value #or the 'hange in the provision o# an e'os!stem
servi'e(
,3( Te'hni'al un'ertaint! pervades valuation studies espe'iall! with regard to the 'redi-ilit! o#
the estimates o# non.use values through stated pre#eren'e methods and the non 'on'lusive issue
o# the large disparit! -etween )TP and )TA value estimates( /t has -een suggested that
'om-ining valuation models and a pre#eren'e 'ali-ration approa'h ma! -e the wa! #orward to
minimize te'hni'al un'ertaint!(
,4( The value o# the resilien'e o# an e'os!stem is related to the e7pe'ted -ene#its and 'osts that
o''ur when the e'os!stem shi#ts to another regime( An analog! 'an -e drawn -etween the
valuation o# e'os!stem resilien'e and the valuation o# a port#olio o# assets in that the value o# the
asset mi7 : the e'os!stem and its -iodiversit! : depends on the pro-a-ilit! that a shi#t o''urs as
well as on the -ene#its and 'osts when it does(
,6( Current +nowledge a-out -iodiversit! and e'os!stem d!nami's at this point is insu##i'ient to
implement su'h port#olio assessment, and monetar! anal!sis will -e misleading when
e'os!stems are near 'riti'al thresholds( At the poli'! level, it is -etter to address this un'ertaint!
and ignoran'e -! emplo!ing a sa#e minimum standard approa'h and the pre'autionar! prin'iple(
,1( "espite man! limitations, valuation e7er'ises 'an still provide in#ormation that is an
indispensa-le 'omponent o# environmental poli'! in general( But poli'! ma+ers should interpret
and utilize the valua-le in#ormation provided -! these te'hniques while a'+nowledging the
limitations o# this in#ormation(
,3
,@( /t is li+el! that new te'hniques and 'om-inations o# di##erent methodologi'al approa'hes
<e(g( monetar!, deli-erative and multi'riteria methods= will -e needed in order to properl! #a'e
#uture 'hallenges and provide more a''urate values that would -ene#it de'ision ma+ing
pro'esses(
,C( A 'loser 'olla-oration -etween e'ologists and e'onomists ma! then 'ontri-ute to develop
valuation te'hniques that are -etter suited to dealing with the 'omple7 relationship -etween
e'os!stems and the servi'es the! provide to the lo'al and glo-al e'onomies(
,>( Future valuation pra'titioners o# -iodiversit! and e'os!stem servi'es should ma+e e7pli'it
the pro'edures and methods used in their studies as well as openl! a'+nowledge an! o-sta'les
that the! ma! have en'ountered(
' -iscounting as an ethical choice
/ntertemporal distri-ution o# 'osts and -ene#its poses a 'hallenge #or the de'ision ma+ers in
9usti#!ing resour'e allo'ation #or a pro9e't and poli'ies espe'iall! when the! have 'ompeting
demand #or the resour'e availa-le( The 'hallenge -e'omes more severe i# the pro9e't entails the
impa't on e'os!stems in the long run( /# the impa'ts o# pro9e't through its 'osts and -ene#its
a''rue to poor and the ri'h disproportionatel!, it #urther 'ompli'ates the anal!sis(
)e #ind that an appropriate rate o# dis'ount 'an guide -etter 'hoi'e o# strategies and
response poli'ies #or e'os!stem management( )e suggest0
,( There is a #undamental di##eren'e -etween the individual.at.a.point.in.time dis'ount rate and
the so'ial dis'ount rate(
2( /n terms o# the dis'ounting equation, estimates o# how well.o## those in the #uture will -e are
the +e! #a'tor as to how mu'h we should leave the #uture(
3( A 'riti'al #a'tor in dis'ounting is the importan'e o# environmental draw.down <destru'tion o#
natural 'apital= to estimates o# the #uture growth rate o# per 'apita 'onsumption
,4
4( /n 'ontrast to the re'ommendations o# 'onventional e'onomists, a variet! o# dis'ount rates,
in'luding zero and negative rates, should -e used depending on the time period involved, the
degree o# un'ertaint!, ethi'al responsi-ilities to the world?s poorest, ethi'al responsi-ilities
towards #uture generations, and the s'ope o# pro9e't or poli'! -eing evaluated(
6( A low dis'ount rate #or the entire e'onom! might #avour more investment and growth and
more environmental destru'tion( %a'roe'onomi' 'onsequen'es o# a parti'ular dis'ount rate
should -e 'onsidered separatel! #rom mi'roe'onomi' ones(
1( The ri'h and poor di##er greatl! in their dire't dependen'e on -iodiversit! and the servi'es o#
e'os!stems(
@( There are no purel! economic guidelines #or 'hoosing a dis'ount rate( $esponsi-ilit! to #uture
generations is a matter o# ethi's, -est guesses a-out the well.-eing o# those in #uture and
preserving li#e opportunities(
C( /n general, a higher dis'ount rate applied to spe'i#i' 'ases will lead to the long.term
degradation o# -iodiversit! and e'os!stems( A #our per 'ent dis'ount rate implies that
-iodiversit! loss 6; !ears #rom now will -e valued at onl! one.seventh o# the same amount o#
-iodiversit! loss toda!(
>( A 'riti'al #a'tor in dis'ounting is the importan'e o# environmental draw.down <destru'tion o#
natural 'apital= to estimates o# g <as G"P growth=( /s the 'urrent generation living on savings
that should -e passed to their des'endentsF
( .dentification of knowledge gaps and limitations and mapping into national policies/
Challenges and options
The assessment o# eviden'e on the relationship -etween e'os!stem servi'es and -iodiversit!
helps not onl! in identi#!ing the poli'!.relevant insights -ut also in #illing the gaps in
understanding the s'ien'e whi'h is 'riti'al #or e'onomi' anal!sis( This 'an #urther -e 'arried
#orward #or resear'h and must -e remem-ered while designing poli'ies #or the national and
,6
glo-al de'ision ma+ers( *ome o# the emerging questions that are ver! relevant #or e'onomi'
anal!sis o# 'hange in e'os!stems and -iodiversit! in'lude0
(0# Links *etween *iodiversity+ ecosystems and resilience
GnlHi= )hat are the roles o# spe'ies intera'tions and #un'tional diversit! #or e'os!stem resilien'eF
ii= )hat are the drivers -ehind loss o# resilien'e and how do the! intera't a'ross s'alesF
iii= )hat are the impa'ts o# 'limate and related environmental 'hanges on e'os!stem #un'tioning
through e##e'ts on spe'ies <re=distri-ution, num-ers and pro'ess ratesF
(0$ The dynamics of ecosystem services
i= Dow 'an we -etter quanti#! e##e'ts on regulating e'os!stem servi'es o# an in'rease in non.
sustaina-le use o# provisioning servi'esF
ii= )hat tools 'an 'ontri-ute to a''urate mapping o# land and seas'ape units in terms o#
#un'tioning and servi'e provisionF
iii= )hat spe'i#i' tools 'ould 'ontri-ute to -etter assessment o# spatial and temporal d!nami's o#
servi'e provision, espe'iall! in relation to de#ining who -ene#its, where and to what e7tentF
(0% 1nderstanding the dynamics of governance and management of ecosystems and
ecosystem services
GnlHi= /# all e'os!stem servi'es are ta+en into a''ount, what is the appropriate -alan'e -etween
Amore diverse lands'apes generating -undles o# e'os!stems servi'es? and more intensivel!
managed e'os!stems li+e mono'ultures #or #ood produ'tionF
,1
ii= )hat are the trade.o##s and 'omplementarities involved in the provision o# -undles o#
e'os!stem servi'es, and how do 'hanges in the 'on#iguration o# e'os!stems a##e't their valueF
iii= )hat are the most e##e'tive me'hanisms #or the governan'e o# non.mar+eted e'os!stem
servi'es, and how 'an these -e designed so as to e7ploit #uture improvements in our
understanding o# the relationships -etween -iodiversit!, e'os!stem #un'tioning and e'os!stem
servi'esF
(0& 2aluation and *enefit transfer method
i= *in'e marginal values are li+el! to var! with e'os!stem 'hara'teristi's, so'io.e'onomi'
'hara'teristi's o# -ene#i'iaries, and e'ologi'al 'onte7t, 'are needs to -e ta+en to ad9ust
trans#erred values when there are important di##eren'es -etween stud! and poli'! sites(
ii= /t should -e noted that the mar+et size and rate o# distan'e de'a! is li+el! to var! a'ross
di##erent e'os!stem servi'es #rom the same e'os!stem( /t is also important to a''ount #or
di##eren'es in site 'onte7t in terms o# the availa-ilit! o# su-stitute and 'omplementar!
e'os!stems and servi'es(
iii= /n 'ases where a high qualit! primar! valuation stud! is availa-le #or a stud! site with ver!
similar 'hara'teristi's to the poli'! site, the unit trans#er method ma! produ'e the most pre'ise
value estimate( /n 'ases where no value in#ormation #or a 'losel! similar stud! site is availa-le,
value #un'tion or meta.anal!ti' #un'tion trans#er provide a sound approa'h #or 'ontrolling #or
site spe'i#i' 'hara'teristi's(
iv= Aggregation o# trans#erred unit values a'ross the relevant population or e'os!stem area needs
to -e underta+en 'are#ull! to avoid dou-le 'ounting values or misspe'i#!ing the mar+et size #or
an e'os!stem servi'e(
v= Future valuation pra'titioners o# -iodiversit! and e'os!stem servi'es should ma+e e7pli'it the
pro'edures and methods used in their studies as well as openl! a'+nowledge an! o-sta'les that
the! ma! have en'ountered(
,@
(0' 2aluations and its conte3t
*o'ial and institutional anal!ses suggest that valuation is essentiall! a matter o# 'hoosing how to
per'eive the human -eing itsel#, how to per'eive human?s pla'e in Iature and how to per'eive
Iature itsel#( This is -e'ause the wa! we per'eive our natural environment determines the wa!
we value and 'hange it( 8ne wa! o# in'orporating a multila!ered understanding o# human:
environment relations, and understanding the value and motivational lin+ages -etween the two,
is to address the large gap that e7ists -etween the language in whi'h the pre#eren'e o# the people
#or e'os!stem servi'es is eli'ited and the language in whi'h people #eel more at home( The
languages o# resear'h and poli'! show similar dissonan'e( The more the dis'ourse moves awa!
#rom the 'ommon lives and real.li#e 'on'erns to a-struse quanti#i'ation and redu'tionism, the
more people are li+el! to give pre#eren'es that are #udged and 'on#used as mu'h as these are
'on#using, merel! -e'ause the 'hoi'es we o##er are #ar #rom adequate <Kumar and Kumar, 2;;C,
pC,4=( 5aluation approa'hes aiming at addressing 'omple7 so'io.e'ologi'al s!stems require
attention to the 'hallenge o# understanding pro-lems o# 'redi-ilit!, salien'! and legitima'! at the
interse'tion o# di##erent +nowledge s!stems and a''ess to in#ormation at di##erent levels and -!
di##erent groups <Cash et al, 2;;1=( /n this sense, valuation me'hanisms should -e seen as part o#
a -roader range o# diagnosti' and assessment tools and politi'al:institutional me'hanisms that
#a'ilitate the understanding o# 'omple7 so'io.e'ologi'al s!stems <8strom, 2;;>=, as well as
'oprodu'tion, mediation, translation and negotiation o# in#ormation and +nowledge within and
a'ross levels <Cash et al, 2;;1B Brondizio et al, 2;;>=( The main lesson that 'omes a'ross when
one reviews valuation literature is to avoid a Aone size #its all? approa'h, or as 8strom <2;;@=
puts it when proposing a #ramewor+ #or the anal!sis o# 'omple7 so'ial.e'ologi'al s!stems, we
need to move -e!ond pana'eas(
$egulating servi'es provide value through their role in assuring the relia-ilit! o# servi'e suppl!
over spa'e or timeB sometimes e7pressed in terms o# the resilien'e o# the s!stem to
environmental sho'+s( That is, the! moderate the varia-ilit! or un'ertaint! o# the suppl! o#
provisioning and 'ultural servi'es( )hile an in'rease in -iodiversit! ma! in'rease produ'tion,
e7perimental data indi'ate that #or given environmental 'onditions this e##e't is small( The
produ'tivit! o# some -iologi'all! diverse 'ommunities, #or e7ample, has -een #ound to -e a-out
,C
ten per 'ent higher than the produ'tivit! o# mono'ultures, -ut the e##e't o#ten saturates at #ewer
than ten spe'ies( /# environmental 'onditions are not 'onstant, however, the e##e't ma! in'rease
with the num-er o# spe'ies providing that the! have di##erent ni'hes and hen'e di##erent
responses to distur-an'es or 'hanges in environmental 'onditions( For instan'e, the regulation o#
pest and disease out-rea+s is a##e'ted -! #ood we- 'omple7it!(
i= *in'e people 'are a-out the relia-ilit! <or varia-ilit!= in the suppl! o# these servi'es <people
are generall! ris+ averse=, an!thing that in'reases relia-ilit! <redu'es varia-ilit!= will -e valued(
The value o# regulating servi'es a''ordingl! lies in their impa't on the varia-ilit! in the suppl!
o# the provisioning and 'ultural servi'es( An important #a'tor in this is the diversit! o# the
#un'tional groups responsi-le #or the servi'es involved( The greater the spe'ialization or ni'he
di##erentiation o# the spe'ies within a #un'tional group, the wider the range o# environmental
'onditions that group is a-le to tolerate( /n some 'ases greater diversit! with a #un'tional group
-oth in'reases the mean level and redu'es the varia-ilit! o# the servi'es that group supports(
/ndeed, this port#olio e##e't turns out to -e one o# the strongest reasons #or maintaining the
diversit! o# #un'tional groups(
ii= The general point here is that the value o# e'os!stem 'omponents, in'luding the diversit! o#
the -iota, derives #rom the value o# the goods and servi'es the! produ'e( For ea'h o# the
e'os!stem servi'es des'ri-ed in this 'hapter we have identi#ied its sensitivit! to 'hanges in
-iodiversit!( /# greater diversit! enhan'es mean !ields o# valued servi'es it is transparent that
diversit! will have value( Dowever, it is also true that i# greater diversit! redu'es the varian'e in
the !ield o# valued servi'es that will also -e a sour'e o# value( *in'e people pre#er relia-ilit!
over unrelia-ilit!, 'ertaint! over un'ertaint!, and sta-ilit! over varia-ilit!, the! t!pi'all! 'hoose
wider rather than narrower port#olios o# assets( Biodiversit! 'an -e thought o# as a port#olio o#
-ioti' resour'es, the value o# whi'h depends on its impa't on -oth mean !ields and the varian'e
in !ields(
iii= /t #ollows that there is a 'lose 'onne'tion -etween the value o# -iodiversit! in se'uring the
regulating servi'es, and its value in se'uring the resilien'e o# e'os!stems( *in'e resilien'e is a
,>
measure o# the 'apa'it! o# e'os!stems to #un'tion over a range o# environmental 'onditions, a
s!stem that is more resilient is also li+el! to deliver more e##e'tive regulating servi'es(
(0( From micro foundation to macro policy
8ne o# the ma9or 'riti'isms o# e'onomi' valuation o# -iodiversit! and e'os!stem servi'es is that
most valuation e7er'ises do not allow #or e'os!stems and e'onomies to impa't ea'h other
simultaneousl!( Also, although not ne'essaril! a 'riti'ism, the #rame o# re#eren'e #or most
e'onomi' anal!sis o# e'os!stems is at the #irm, household or individual industr! level( *etting
the anal!sis at the #irm, household or industr! level mas+s potential spillovers asso'iated with
a'tions ta+en in one se'tor o# an e'onom! on other se'tors, and the 'orresponding impa'ts on
ma'roe'onomi' varia-les li+e gross domesti' produ't <G"P=, aggregate savings rates or trade
patterns( *imilarl!, the stru'tural 'hanges a''ompan!ing e'onomi' growth <se'toral
'omposition=, trade and 'onsumption patterns 'an have #ar rea'hing impa'ts on the health and
'ondition o# e'os!stems( Two e7amples o# su'h impa'ts are0 <i= the intensi#i'ation o# agri'ultural
produ'tion a''ompan!ing e'onomi' growth, and its impa't on soil salinit! and water logging,
and on geneti' diversit!B and <ii= regional and national su-sidies to #ish harvesting and the
'orresponding impa'ts on #ish sto'+s and marine -iodiversit!(
There are other relevant e7amples where a ma'roe'onomi' #ramewor+ 'ould provide use#ul
insights into how to -etter manage an e'os!stem( 8ne 'urrent issue in the e'onomi's o# 'oastal
e'os!stems is the impa't o# e'onomi' growth and the in'reased 'onversion o# mangrove #orests
into agri'ultural or aqua'ultural uses, and the 'orresponding impa't on the a-ilit! o# 'oastal
e'os!stems to support #ish populations( Another issue is the 'on'ern with delta e'os!stem
destru'tion due to de'reased : sometimes non.e7istent : river #low( )ith terrestrial e'os!stems,
an issue that has re'eived mu'h attention, and will 'ontinue to do so in the near #uture, is 'ar-on
sequestration( A simplisti' summar! o# the 'urrent dis'ussion is *outhern 'ountries have
potential to serve as 'ar-on sin+s, -ut de#orestation in these 'ountries provides them with a
signi#i'ant sour'e o# G"P( A natural question to as+ is, i# Iorthern 'ountries want a *outhern
'ountr! to serve as a 'ar-on sin+ how mu'h in'ome would that 'ountr! #orgo i# it de'reased its
desired rate o# de#orestation, or stopped it altogetherF The answer to this question li+el! sets the
lower limit on the Iorth?s o##er pri'e to the *outh 'ountr! to steward its #orest assets di##erentl!(
2;
Thus #ar, the thrust o# this TEEB -oo+ has -een to summarize the dominant 'on'eptual
#ramewor+s and related methodologies used to measure the e'onomi' 'osts and -ene#its o#
e'os!stem management poli'ies( *u'h poli'ies range #rom ta7es to eliminate e7ternalities in an
e7isting prevailing mar+et <mar+et #ailures= to poli'!.indu'ed distortions implemented at
regional, national and glo-al levels <e(g( tari##s to prote't import.'ompeting se'tors or ta7es on
#a'tors used -! se'tors that damage e'os!stem health=( The maintained h!pothesis, here, is
poli'! design 'an -e -etter in#ormed -! properl! using e'onomi' valuation and a''ounting
e7er'ises <with the understanding that poli'! ran+ings 'an -e in#luen'ed -! the dis'ount rate
used in the anal!sis=(
The methodologies dis'ussed thus #ar, however, do not adequatel! a''ommodate the
interdependen'ies among di##erent e'onomi' su-se'tors and e'os!stem servi'es( The
methodologies also are not designed to measure the potential impa't o# a poli'! on the entire
e'onom! and its underl!ing e'os!stem( The dependen'e o# 'onventional e'onomi' se'tors on
e'os!stems arises not onl! through the use o# tangi-le #a'tors li+e tim-er, water and #ish, -ut also
the use o# intangi-le servi'es li+e waste minimization, 'limate regulations or the 'ontrol o#
ve'tor.-orne diseases <%A, 2;;3, 2;;6=( Ea'h o# these servi'es adds value to human well.-eing,
-ut the a-ilit! o# e'os!stems to provide su'h servi'es 'an -e in#luen'ed -! human -ehaviour(
The e'onomi's o# tropi'al mangrove #orests illustrate this point( %arine s'ientists have
esta-lished a lin+ -etween mangrove area and the 'arr!ing 'apa'it! o# #ish sto'+s : loosel!
spea+ing, the larger the area planted to mangrove #orests, the larger the sto'+ o# #ish the 'oastal
e'os!stem 'an support <see Bar-ier, 2;;3, 2;;>B Doanh et al, 2;;1=( The simplest e'onomi'
stor! em-edded in the relationship -etween mangrove #orest area and #ish sto'+ is0 the smaller
the mangrove #orest, the more 'ostl! it should -e to harvest #ish( /gnoring the land.'onversion
pro'ess, a natural question to as+ is how will net returns to the #ishing industr! 'hange as
mangrove area #allsF /n answering this question, one might right#ull! ignore the rest o# the
e'onom! : espe'iall! i# the #ishing area 'ontri-utes little to the overall e'onom!( Alternativel!,
'onsider an e'onom! wherein harvested #ish are sold to #irms who emplo! 'apital and la-our to
pro'ess #resh #ish, who in turn 'ompete with manu#a'turing and servi'e se'tor #irms #or 'apital
2,
and la-our( /n this 'ase, a de'rease in mangrove area leads to an in'rease in #ish harvesting 'osts,
whi'h in turn de'reases the suppl! o# #resh #ish to pro'essors( This 'an lead to higher #resh #ish
pri'es, whi'h 'an pla'e downward pressure on the demand #or 'apital and la-our -! #ish
pro'essors( These intera'tions 'an have impli'ations #or regional wages and rates o# return to
'apital and investment patterns( Empiri'al e7amples <non.#isher!= in $oe et al <2;;>would
suggest the e'onomi' impa't o# a de'lining mangrove #orest on -oth the #ishing #leet and
pro'essing se'tor will depend on how important 'apital is relative to la-our in produ'ing ea'h
se'tor?s output(
The two mangrove e7amples illustrate that some pro-lems in e'os!stem e'onomi's are well
suited to mi'roe'onomi' anal!sis, while others are not( 8ther e7amples will reveal that some
issues 'an -e e7amined without e7pli'itl! a''ounting #or -ioph!si'alJe'os!stem d!nami's, while
others should not( /nsights into the e'onomi's o# some issues 'an -e garnered using a simple,
single.se'tor growth model integrated with a -ioph!si'al model <e(g( the "!nami' /ntegrated
Climate E'onom! <"/CE= model developed -! Iordhaus and Eang, ,>>1=( 8n the other hand, a
'are#ul investigation o# the e'onomi's o# the mangrove:#isher! pro-lem in the previous
paragraph li+el! requires integrating #isher! d!nami's with a d!nami' e'onomi' model having
multiple se'tors(
Another issue whi'h must -e addressed is the relationship -etween the relative s'ale o# e'onomi'
a'tivities and the natural e'os!stem to whi'h the e'onomi' s!stem is a su-set( A''ounting #or
s'ale e##e'ts is 'riti'al in understanding how to manage an e'os!stem and e'onom! in a
sustaina-le #ashion( This management 'hallenge is dire'tl! related to the 'on'ept o# the carrying
capacity of Nature <Arrow et al,, ,>>6=( ust as the mi'ro units o# the e'onom! : e(g( individual
households and #irms : #un'tion as part o# a ma'roe'onomi' s!stem, the aggregate e'onom!
#un'tions as part o# a larger s!stem whi'h "ail! <,>>,= re#ers to as the natural e'os!stem(
/n response to these omissions, developing a 'on'eptual #ramewor+ that 'aptures the e'onomi's
o# intera'tions -etween large.s'ale e'os!stems and regional or national e'onomies would
#a'ilitate the design o# regional and national e'os!stem and -iodiversit! poli'!( Ta+e #or
e7ample, poli'! suggested in TEEB in national poli'!, 'hs 2, 4 and 1=( The e'onomi' theor!
underl!ing su'h poli'! 'ould -ene#it -! having its roots in d!nami', general equili-rium models(
Even more importantl!, the model should -e empiri'all! implementa-le( A good starting point
22
#or su'h a model might -e #ound -! lin+ing the multi.spe'ies, d!nami' general equili-rium
e'os!stem model <GEE%= dis'ussed in Ts'hirhart <2;;>=, Ei'hner and Ts'hirhart <2;;@= and
Finno## and Ts'hirhart <2;;C= with the d!nami', multise'tor ma'roe'onomi' models presented
in $oe et al <2;;>=( *u'h a #ramewor+ 'ould serve as a ni'e point o# departure #or e7amining the
relationship -etween e'os!stem management and <i= e'onomi' growth, <ii= stru'tural
trans#ormation and <iii= simple trade and -alan'e o# pa!ment issues( The $oe et al approa'h,
however, ma! not -e o# mu'h value in understanding the relationship -etween monetar! poli'!
and e'os!stems(
A multise'tor, general equili-rium is desira-le #or two reasons( First, a general equili-rium
model provides us with a dire't means o# understanding the interdependen'ies among e'onomi'
su-se'tors and -etween these se'tors and an e'os!stem( *e'ond, we want two or more se'tors
-e'ause poli'! ma+ers are t!pi'all! interested in +nowing <or having an idea o#= the li+el!
impa't o# a poli'! on di##erent sta+eholder groups, #or e7ample manu#a'turing and agri'ultural
lo--ies( The desired #ramewor+ is d!nami' -e'ause -oth e'os!stems and e'onomies are d!nami'
entities, and it is important to understand the short. and long.run impa't o# a poli'! on an
e'onom! and the e'os!stem with whi'h the e'onom! is lin+ed( Furthermore, a long.run view is
essential when delving into questions o# sustaina-ilit!( Finall!, another desired #eature o# a
model lin+ing e'onomi's and the e'os!stem would -e #or the model to a''ommodate e'os!stems
de#ined -! two or more natural assets <e(g( the sto'+ o# 'oral ree# serving as ha-itat #or a sto'+ o#
#ish=( )e #eel this is important -e'ause e'os!stems are t!pi'all! viewed as the result o# interpla!
-etween two or more spe'ies or, more generall!, -etween a-ioti' #a'tors and -ioti' organisms(
*everal 'hallenges emerge when introdu'ing d!nami's into an e'onomi's:e'os!stem model( For
instan'e, standard approa'hes to empiri'al e'onomi' d!nami' modelling does not t!pi'all!
a''ommodate h!per-oli' or other potentiall! more 'omple7 dis'ounting 'on'epts( /n addition,
one might need to entertain the possi-ilit! o# Ashallow.la+e? d!nami's, whi'h 'an lead to
multiple stead! state equili-ria <see %Kler et al, 2;;3B Dei9dra and Dei9nen, 2;;>=( The model
might also need to a''ommodate trans-oundar! pro-lems, whi'h to address properl! in an
empiri'al #ashion is quite 'hallenging(
23
1(1(, Ecosystem Accounting
Two issues lin+ed with natural assets are0 <i= the role o# natural assets in measuring so'ial
wel#are and sustaina-ilit!, and <ii= the role o# natural assets in so'ial a''ounting and input:output
ta-les : o#ten re#erred to as Agreen a''ounting?( )el#are, its de#initions and measurement is the
topi' o# interest to a wide spe'trum o# dis'iplines <see *tiglitz et al, 2;;>=( For the past #ew
de'ades, per 'apita gross domesti' produ't <G"P= and per 'apita gross national produ't <GIP=
have -een popular indi'es o# wel#are( G"P is the total value o# all #inal goods and servi'es
produ'ed in a region, and GIP is G"P plus in'ome earned -! domesti' 'itizens a-road less
in'ome earned -! #oreign 'itizens in the region( )hile GIP is a reasona-le measure o# e'onomi'
a'tivit!, when measuring wel#are in a d!nami' setting <e(g( an evolving e'onom!= some
e'onomists pre#er using wealth or net national produ't <IIP= as a measure o# e'onomi' well.
-eing or so'ial wel#are( Dere, wealth is t!pi'all! viewed as the real value o# sto'+s, and IIP is
equal to GIP less depre'iation Gsee )eitzman <,>@1=B "asgupta and %Kler <2;;;=B Deal and
KristrLm <2;;6=B "asgupta <2;;>=H(
Iote, however, that these in'ome and wealth -ased measures o# wel#are have well +nown
pro-lems( 8ne pro-lem with per 'apita G"P is it glosses over issues o# distri-ution, and
impli'itl! assumes the marginal valuation o# an additional unit o# in'ome is the same #or an
impoverished person as it is #or a ri'h person( Another pro-lem is that traditional measures o#
G"P <and IIP= do not a''ount #or the depre'iation <i(e( degradation= o# environmental assets,
-iodiversit! or e'os!stems( Creation o# the Duman "evelopment /nde7 : where G"P is
'om-ined with health status and edu'ation levels : is an improvement in wel#are measurement,
-ut is however silent on natural 'apital?s and e'os!stems? 'ontri-ution to human wel#are
<"asgupta, 2;;>=( *ee *tiglitz et al <2;;>= #or a dis'ussion o# e'onomi' wel#are0 de#initions,
measurement and statisti'al issues, and data needs( The importan'e to traditional agri'ulturalists
and su-sisten'e #armers o# e'os!stem servi'es #rom #orest -iomes <eg 0 #reshwater and soil
nutrient '!'ling, provision o# #uelwood and #odder, mitigation o# #lood and drought damage to
'rops and propert!, et'= has -een evaluated -! TEEB and #ound to -e a ver! material
24
'omponent o# their household in'omes < see MTEEB and Poli'! %a+ingN=( Traditional measures
o# e'onomi' per#orman'e are also insensitive to su'h equit! and povert! impli'ations o#
e'os!stem servi'es and o# their ongoing losses(
The wel#are dis'ussion alluded to a-ove is intimatel! related to the notion o# sustaina-ilit!(
Although the issue o# sustaina-ilit! was ta+en up -! Di'+s and Lindahl -eginning in the ,>3;s
<Deal and KristrLm, 2;;6=, and dis'ussed -! *olow <,>>2 the potential long.run impa't o#
environmental damages li+e glo-al warming and 'on'erns with the #uture availa-ilit! o# natural
resour'es has more re'entl! resurre'ted the sustaina-ilit! dis'ussion( $oughl! spea+ing, an
e'onom! is on a sustaina-le tra9e'tor! i# real wealth G"asgupta and %Kler <2;;;=H or real in'ome
GDi'+s <,>3>=H, does not #all over time(
The national in'ome a''ount <I/A= is a #undamental ma'roe'onomi' indi'ator, whi'h shows the
level and per#orman'e o# e'onomi' a'tivities in the e'onom!( The *!stem o# Iational A''ounts
<*IA= o# the &nited Iations attempts to provide a -en'hmar+ed #ramewor+ #or measuring and
summarizing national in'ome data a'ross all a'tivities within an e'onom! and to #a'ilitate
'omparing su'h data a'ross 'ountries <*EEA 2;;3( A 'ru'ial 'omponent o# the *IA is the
estimation o# G"P, where, at given mar+et pri'es, the gross value o# all the goods and servi'es
produ'ed within an e'onom! is estimated(
/n measuring G"P, the 'ontri-utions o# e'os!stem servi'es su'h as -ioremediation -! wetlands,
storm and #lood prote'tion -! mangroves, and the prevention o# soil erosion -! #orests are
ignored( Den'e, man! e'os!stem servi'es whi'h have a wel#are.enhan'ing roles do not enter into
ma'roe'onomi' value 'al'ulations( This is due to their relativel! low per'eived value as these
resour'es and their 'ontri-utions o#ten #all outside the domain o# the mar+et, and hen'e remain
un.pri'ed and under.valued( <imatel!, this means that G"P underestimates the a'tual level o#
so'ial wel#are -e'ause it does not a''ount #or 'ontri-utions #rom natural resour'es(
26
E'onomists are now in agreement that instead o# measuring G"P or in'ome : a #low 'on'ept :
the more 'omprehensive measurement o# the sto'+ o# wealth that in'ludes the value o# natural
'apital is a more meaning#ul and 'orre't approa'h <"asgupta and %Kler, 2;;;B Arrow et al,
2;;4B "asgupta, 2;;>=( The )orld Ban+ has attempted to implement the 'on'ept o# e'os!stem
a''ounting, and 'reated two reports in late ,>>;s : namel! A%onitoring Environmental Progress?
<)orld Ban+, ,>>6= and AE7panding the %easure o# )ealth? <)orld Ban+, ,>>@=( These reports
are #undamentall! -ased on Pear'e and At+inson?s <,>>3= notion o# wealth measurement and
savings( Another important milestone in estimating natural wealth o''urred in 2;;1, when the
)orld Ban+ pu-lished A)here /s the )ealth o# Iations? a report that presents Awealth a''ounts?
o# more than ,;; 'ountries <)orld Ban+, 2;;1=(
To date, there is a general 'onsensus that natural assets are sto'+s that should enter a so'ial
a''ounting matri7 <*A%= or input:output </8= ta-le as a #a'tor a''ount, and the provisioning
and regulating servi'es, i# measura-le, should enter as an intermediate input( Green a''ounts are
a 'ru'ial ingredient in empiri'al general equili-rium modeling e7er'ises -e'ause the *A% is the
lin+ -etween the ma'roe'onomi' theor! and its empiri'al analogue( Although most 'ountries
have *A%s #or one or more !ears, ver! #ew 'ountries have *A% data that in'ludes natural asset
entries <Deal and KristrLm, 2;;3=(
Given the m!riad o# poli'! issues, it is use#ul to 'onsider two -road 'ategories o# poli'!( 8ne is
related to the e'onomi' #or'es asso'iated with the natural evolution o# an e'onom! <e(g( 'apital
deepening and in'reased la-our produ'tivit!=, and how these #or'es impa't <spill over onto= the
e7ploitation o# natural assets and e'os!stems( /n this 'ategor!, poli'! instruments in'lude ta7es,
su-sidies, quotas, li'en'es and propert! rights that are lin+ed dire'tl! to natural assets and
e'os!stems( *imilar instruments lin+ed to other se'tors 'an have indire't impa'ts on natural
assets and e'os!stems( The other set o# poli'ies are domesti' ma'roe'onomi' poli'ies <e(g(
monetar! poli'!= that 'ause ma9or #is'al and trade im-alan'es, whi'h in turn distort domesti'
produ't and #a'tor mar+ets( *imilarl!, #oreign poli'ies 'an have spillover e##e'ts on the home
'ountr!(
21
Chara'teristi's o# a growing e'onom! in'lude 'apital deepening : here, -roadl! de#ined to
in'lude human 'apital : and t!pi'all! an in'rease in the servi'e se'tor?s <housing, utilities,
transportation, pro#essional, -an+ing and retail servi'es= share o# G"P, with most o# the servi'e
goods not traded in international mar+ets( Also, as e'onomies grow <i= the share o# the wor+
#or'e in agri'ulture #alls as wages in'rease, whi'h indu'es a su-stitution o# 'apital #or la-our in
produ'tion, and <ii= household e7penditures on servi'es and entertainment goods in'rease(
The possi-le impa'ts a su''ess#ul e'onom! 'an have on e'os!stems and -iodiversit! Awor+s in
reverse? #or an unsu''ess#ul, slow.growing e'onom!( 8#ten, poor e'onomi' per#orman'e is also
asso'iated with e'onomi' 'rises and volatilit! in #a'tor in'omes( /nvaria-l!, these 'onditions
tend to slow the e7odus o# la-our out o# agri'ulture, slow the rate o# 'apital deepening and
dampen a 'ountr!?s in'entives and politi'al will to prevent the degradation o# natural and
environmental resour'es( E'onomi' 'rises o#ten result when 'ountries pursue poli'ies that lead to
#is'al de#i'its or e7ternal de-t that ma+e their e'onomies vulnera-le to e'onomi' sho'+s( The
needed within.'ountr!.ad9ustments : even with the assistan'e o# international agen'ies and
#riendl! governments : is invaria-l! a de'rease in government spending, an in'rease in trans#ers
#rom households either dire'tl! through ta7es and #ees, and 'osts o# ad9ustment as resour'es are
reallo'ated #rom the produ'tion o# home goods to the produ'tion o# internationall! traded goods(
&ntil the im-alan'es are 'orre'ted and de-t o-ligations met, household real disposa-le in'ome is
t!pi'all! mu'h less than -e#ore the sho'+, with wage in'ome su##ering the greatest de'line(
E'os!stem e7ploitation <e(g( harvesting tim-er #or 'oo+ing and #uel= is e7a'er-ated -! an
in'entive to in'rease e7ploitation -! those whose wages and emplo!ment have #allen, while at
the same time, government -udgets #or the management o# these resour'es is even more
'onstrained(
Finally+
Through the TEEB series in'luding in this -oo+, in ATEEB #or Poli'! %a+ers? <TEEB in
Iational Poli'!, 2;,,= and ATEEB #or Lo'al Governments? <TEEB in Lo'al Poli'!, 2;,,=, we
#ollow a tiered approa'h in anal!sing pro-lems and suita-le poli'! responses( )e #ind that at
times, it su##i'es 9ust to recognize value . -e it intrinsi', spiritual or so'ial . to 'reate a 'ost
e##e'tive poli'! response #or 'onservation or e'onomi'all! sustaina-le use o# -iodiversit! and
e'os!stem servi'es( At other times we ma! need to demonstrate e'onomi' value in order #or
poli'! ma+ers to respond . su'h as a wetland 'onserved near Kampala <see TEEB in Lo'al
2@
Poli'!, 2;,,, Chapter C= #or its waste treatment #un'tion instead o# re'laiming it #or agri'ulture,
or river #lats maintained #or their man! e'os!stem servi'es instead o# 'onverting them #or
residential use near Iew "elhi <see TEEB in Iational Poli'!, 2;,,, Chapter ,;, Bo7 ,;(1=(
/t is not a Mris+.#reeN e7er'ise to demonstrate value -! deriving and propagating shadow pri'es(
There is alwa!s the ris+ that misguided poli'!.ma+ers or e7ploitative interests ma! want to use
these pri'es #or the wrong ends( There#ore, our proposition is that the a't o# valuing the #lows
and sto'+s o# Iature is ethi'all! valid so long as the purpose o# that e7er'ise is, #irst and
#oremost, to demonstrate value in order to instigate 'hange o# -ehaviour, and to pre.empt
damaging trade.o##s -ased on the impli'it valuations that are involved in 'ausing the loss o#
-iodiversit! and degradation o# e'os!stems(
TEEB has also #o'used 'onsidera-l!
on 'hanges whi'h capture value -! rewarding and
supporting good 'onservation through a variet! o# means : Pa!ments #or Environmental *ervi'es
<PE*= , /PE*, esta-lishing new mar+ets, ED* re#orms, et'( <see TEEB in Iational Poli'!, 2;,,,
Chapters 6 and >, and TEEB in Lo'al Poli'!, 2;,,, Chapter C=( These instruments o##er a
me'hanism to translate e7ternal, non.mar+et values o# e'os!stem servi'es into real #inan'ial
in'entives #or lo'al a'tors to provide su'h servi'es <Ferraro and Kiss, 2;;2=( There is also a need
to use e7isting +nowledge and e7amples o# su''ess to develop more e##e'tive governan'e
institutions, in'luding propert! rights regimes and regulator! stru'tures(
$e'ognizing that -iodiversit! underpins the #oundations o# e'onomies, and o# human well.-eing,
is one thing( Translating that +nowledge into 'on'rete 'hanges that will in#luen'e -ehaviour #or
the -etter is another, #ormida-le 'hallenge( /t is one that must -e met i# the #ailures o# the re'ent
past are not to -e repeated and 'ompounded, with the potential #or ever.in'reasing human and
#inan'ial 'osts( This TEEB -oo+ and other #orth'oming volumes < espe'iall! TEEB in Iational
Poli'!, 2;,,, and TEEB in Lo'al Poli'!, 2;,,= ma+e the 'ase that greater e'onomi' and
e'ologi'al rationalit! in addressing natural 'apital is not onl! ne'essar! -ut possi-le, and
indeed, that it is ampl! eviden'ed in man! instan'es whi'h deserve more attention, investment,
and opportunit! to repli'ate and to s'ale into wider use around the world(
2C
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