Aided by a dismal political environment, Scott Brown is within 5 points of defeating Jeanne Shaheen.
Baton Rouge, LA Magellan Strategies BR released the survey results today of an automated survey of 1,618 likely New Hampshire voters. The survey was conducted July 16-17. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 2.43%. The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire.
Summary Findings
Consistent with other surveys, the overall political environment in New Hampshire favors Republicans.
Only 35% of likely voters think things in the country are headed in the right direction, while 65% think things are on the wrong track. President Obamas job approval is an abysmal 36%, while a strong majority (56%) disapproves of the job he is doing. A traditional demographic shift in previous mid-term elections benefits Republican candidates.
In the past two presidential elections, female voters have enjoyed a 6 point advantage over men relative to total composition of the electorate. During the past two mid-term elections, the female advantage has been only 2 points. Young voters (18-34) represented 28% and 22% of the electorate in 2012 and 2008, respectively. However, during the past two mid-terms, young voters have fluctuated between 10% and 14%. Mid-term elections have also historically produced a Republican advantage relative to party composition of the electorate. During the last two presidential elections, the Republican advantage over Democrats on average was only 3.8 points. However, during the last two mid-terms, the Republican advantage averaged 8.3 points.
Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0714-A Page 2 of 6 Field Dates: 07/16-17/14, MOE +/-2.43%,1,618n
As a result of an abysmal political environment and mid-term election demographics, Scott Brown is in a respectable position to defeat Jeanne Shaheen.
Currently, Scott Brown is only down by 5 points (41% Scott Brown/46% Jeanne Shaheen) with 13% undecided. Among undecided voters, President Obamas job approval is only 10% while 72% disapprove. Among undecided voters, only 14% think things in the country are going in the right direction while 86% think things are on the wrong track. Lastly, Brown still has room to grow among undecided voters. Fifty-three percent of undecided voters have yet to form an opinion of him.
Survey Methodology: The survey results have been weighted to better reflect the likely demographic characteristics of previous mid-term elections. Based on an analysis of the last four election cycles, mid-term election year demographics tend to be more favorable to Republican candidates. While presidential election year demographics are generally more favorable to Democratic candidates.
+4 +11 +3 SURVEY 2012 GEN 2010 GEN 2008 GEN 2006 GEN 35% 31% 39% 32% 38% 30% 27% 28% 29% 32% 36% 42% 34% 39% 30% PARTY REGISTRATION GOP DEM IND +6 GOP Advantage Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0714-A Page 3 of 6 Field Dates: 07/16-17/14, MOE +/-2.43%,1,618n
SURVEY 2012 GEN 2010 GEN 2008 GEN 2006 GEN 13% 28% 14% 22% 10% 14% 12% 14% 18% 18% 25% 20% 24% 24% 27% 24% 19% 24% 19% 23% 23% 20% 24% 17% 21% AGE 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ SURVEY 2012 GEN 2010 GEN 2008 GEN 2006 GEN 51% 53% 51% 53% 51% 49% 47% 49% 47% 49% GENDER FEMALE MALE Female Advantage +6 +2 +6 +2 Age 18-34 +28 +14 +22 +10 Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0714-A Page 4 of 6 Field Dates: 07/16-17/14, MOE +/-2.43%,1,618n
MAGELLAN ID#:NHSTW-0714-A Sample Size=1,618n;+/-2.43% Field Date: 07/16-17/14
Hello, this is ________________ calling on behalf of Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. Were conducting a quick survey with people in NEW HAMPSHIRE this evening and would like to ask you a few questions on a confidential basis.
Q 1. How likely are you to vote in the up-coming elections for Governor and US Senate?
EXTREMELY LIKELY TO VOTE
85.9%
VERY LIKELY TO VOTE
9.2%
SOMEWHAT LIKELY TO VOTE
5.0%
Q 2. Would you say things in country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
RIGHT DIRECTION
35.1%
WRONG TRACK
64.9%
Q 3. If the election for US Senate were being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Republican and the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote?
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE
42.1%
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE
36.3%
UNDECIDED
21.6%
Thinking now about people active in government Q 4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Brown?
FAVORABLE
34.5%
UNFAVORABLE
43.0%
HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION
20.0%
NEVER HEARD OF
2.5%
Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0714-A Page 5 of 6 Field Dates: 07/16-17/14, MOE +/-2.43%,1,618n
Thinking now about people active in government Q 5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeanne Shaheen?
FAVORABLE
46.9%
UNFAVORABLE
43.0%
HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION
9.0%
NEVER HEARD OF
1.1%
Q 6. And do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President?
APPROVE
36.1%
DISAPPROVE
56.2%
UNDECIDED
7.6%
Thinking now about the 2014 election for US Senate... Q 7-9. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Scott Brown, Republican, or Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat?
SCOTT BROWN
41.1%
JEANNE SHAHEEN
46.0%
UNDECIDED
12.9%
DEFINITELY BROWN
25.9%
PROBABLY BROWN
15.2%
PROBABLY SHAHEEN
10.5%
DEFINITELY SHAHEEN
35.5%
Q 10. These last few questions are for statistical purposes only. Are you a male or female?
MALE
49.0%
FEMALE
51.0%
Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0714-A Page 6 of 6 Field Dates: 07/16-17/14, MOE +/-2.43%,1,618n
Q 11-13.Regardless of how you feel today, with which party are you registered to vote?
REPUBLICAN
34.6%
DEMOCRAT
29.9%
INDEPENDENT OR OTHER
35.5%
STR REPUBLICAN
23.7%
NSS REPUBLICAN
10.9%
NSS DEMOCRATIC
9.8%
STR DEMOCRAT
20.1%
Q 14. Which of the following age group applies to you?