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coast guard vessels and

upgraded military ties. But


herein lies the complexity that
arises from regional tensions.
Asean does gain from
engagements with China and
Japan. But Sino-Japanese rivalry
could grow so that each side
may use special concessions in
aid, trade and investment to
expand influence among
different members. If that
happened, what seemed like
attractive economic assistance
and investments may pressure
different Asean member states
to take one side or the other.
While regional integration
needs Chinese and Japanese
involvement, Asean must
remain cohesive. Moreover, the
group must begin to define a
common voice on key global
and regional issues.
Asean must be active and
united to help manage the
region, rather than being the
passive subject of Sino-Japanese
tensions. Otherwise, members
will regret too late that old adage
that when the elephants fight,
the grass dies.
Simon Tay and Gina Guo are
respectively chairman and policy
research senior executive at the
Singapore Institute of International
Affairs. The SIIA will host the
Asean and Asian Forum on
August 1to discuss the politics
and economic policies that
matter to regional business
A
sians are now awake to the
fear of armed conflict. A
recent survey of 11Asian
countries by the Pew Research
Centre found that more than
half of those polled expressed
concerns that tensions over
rocks and islets claimed by
China could spill over. In
countries with conflicting claims
against China Japan, the
Philippines and Vietnam 80 or
even 90 per cent share such
fears.
Steps must be taken to de-
escalate tensions or else the
stability and growth of the
region will be affected. The high-
level strategic discussion
between the US and China,
hosted in Beijing, was one
notable effort. Another recent
and positive step was taken by
China, to move the oil rig that it
had earlier controversially
placed in disputed seas.
Other measures could come
from emphasising the economic
interdependence between the
Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, Japan and China. One
key area would be in the creation
of an Asean Economic
Community by 2015. It is
estimated that about 80 per cent
of the planned steps have been
achieved as of last August, but
the remaining tasks are probably
the most difficult to accomplish.
Economic integration is
neither going to be complete nor
on time. Privately, Asean officials
are now talking about 2015 being
amilestone, and not a deadline,
and have begun to identify an
agenda beyond that date. What
is even clearer is that integration
efforts depend not only on the 10
member states and the relatively
small Asean secretariat, but also
on China and Japan.
The two largest Asian
economies are stepping up their
efforts to economically engage
the grouping. This can be
helpful. But given the tensions
between China and Japan, and
also between China and some
Asean member states it can
also be tricky.
There is a clear need for
infrastructure to link Asean
members. Its own infrastructure
fund has targeted a relatively
modest US$13 billion, with
initial capital of US$485.2
million. China has shown
considerably more ambition
with a pledge of US$100 billion
to kick-start an infrastructure
investment bank to finance
projects in Asia.
One pending infrastructure
project that can benefit is a
railway link, stretching from
Kunming in southwestern
China down to Singapore.
Currently, some 90 per cent of
the necessary rail connections
remain unfinished and there is a
need to speed up work.
Another area is investment.
While China is Aseans largest
trading partner, Chinese
investments in the region
remain small, at only about 7 per
cent of what Beijing sends
overseas. These, however, look
set to rise, given Chinas reform
of its state-owned enterprises,
rising labour costs, more liberal
approaches to cross-border
trade and investment, and
gradual internationalisation of
the renminbi.
Even as China ramps up
engagement, Japan has also
shown resurgent interest in
Asean. From 2012 to 2013,
Japanese corporate investments
in Southeast Asia doubled to
reach US$22.8 billion. This is
three times their China-bound
investments.
More than size alone,
Japanese investments
potentially help Asean firms
move up the value chain,
innovate and boost technology
and human capital. This
provides something that
government-led initiatives
cannot. Such partnerships not
only help integrate the region
but also raise competitiveness.
Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe is increasingly active
beyond economics. Tokyo is
proposing enhancements to the
East Asia Summit, an Asean-led
multilateral gathering, so that it
can become a premier forum
for regional security. The Abe
administration has also
controversially pushed for the
reinterpretation of the countrys
pacifist constitution, and could
ultimately seek a more assertive
role.
Some welcome this. Most
notably, the Philippines
accepted a Japanese gift of 10
Asia must not let politics stand in
the way of economic integration
Simon Tay and Gina Guo say territorial disputes deter closer ties between Asean, China and Japan
Asean must be
united, rather
than being the
passive subject
of Sino-Japanese
tensions
Wednesday, July 23, 2014 A11
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article, email it to oped@scmp.com
I
was in Kuala Lumpur last weekend,
where flags flew at half mast for the
victims of flight MH17 and the key
terms in the media coverage seemed
to be outrage and damning. The
front page of Malaysias The Star news-
paper, for example, emphasised outrage
from various world leaders but exactly
which leaders are the most outraged
depends on each countrys political biases
and economic priorities.
One hundred and ninety-three lives
have weighed heavily on the mind of Mark
Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, yet he
refused to rush to join the anti-Russian
condemnation issuing from the Obama
administration. Rutte emphasised that
there was much about the tragedy that we
couldnt be sure of. This may be sensibly
circumspect, or it may reflect the fact that
business with Moscow is booming: Russia
is the Netherlands third-largest trade
partner.
Rutte did, however, say that he would
personally ensure the culprits are found
and brought to justice. This gains him
political ground in his own country with-
out upsetting the Russians.
Tony Abbott, the prime minister of the
nation which suffered the third-highest
death toll (after the Netherlands and
Malaysia), said, with unexpected under-
statement: Australia takes a very dim view
of countries which facilitate the killing of
Australians. Later, more typical com-
ments that described Russian behaviour
in the Ukraine crisis as outrageous pro-
voked stiff condemnation from Moscow.
Abbott can afford to talk tough: Russia is
not a major trade partner for Australia.
Straight off the bat last weekend, before
US Secretary of State John Kerry provided
any detail to begin to back up his accusa-
tions, Malaysias New Sunday Times saw
no reason to pussyfoot around the Great
Bear. They accepted the United States
damning assertion of where the blame
lay. Pro-Russian separatists launched the
missile, the newspaper declared, leaving
little doubt that they were abetted by the
Russians under the aegis of Vladimir
Putin.
The response from the Malaysian
media must not be taken to represent
Malaysia officially. Tragically, the govern-
ment has too much recent experience of
handling airline tragedies. Whereas it took
Prime Minister Najib Razak a week to
make a public statement about MH370 in
March, this time, he appeared on Malay-
sian TV within hours. His comments
echoed those of his transport minister,
Liow Tiong Lai, who used the phrase
outrage against human decency.
In reality, not all of the world wants to
push Putin too far. Putin is the ultimate
opportunist and will play this situation as
such. Should he concede it was the rebels
fault, he will present Russia as saving the
situation for domestic consumption, at
least. Russias boldness throughout the
Ukraine crisis has been a reaction to Kievs
tilting towards the West.
Devolution for east Ukraine will be the
likely result and is probably exactly what
the Russian leader hoped to achieve from
the outset. Under Putin, Russia doesnt
look much like the has-been power we
have been told it is.
The Obama administration insists
what happened to MH17 should be a
wake-up call for Europes approach to
Russia over the Ukraine conflict. But its
hard to see how Putin and his cronies
could be hurt in any substantial way. The
US would like to see EU sanctions involve a
reduction in the level of natural resources
imported from Russia which supplies 30
per cent of the gas Europe uses. Its easy to
see why many EU leaders have been so
diplomatic: in many cases, including the
Netherlands, mainland European nations
are increasing their dependence on Rus-
sian resources. Whats more, they fear
retaliatory sanctions.
The US is pushing for tougher eco-
nomic measures against Russia, taking the
apparent moral high ground but America
doesnt have the trade relationship with
Russia that continental European nations,
such as Germany, have.
British Prime Minister David Camer-
ons tough posturing against Russia entails
criticising fellow EU members which
plays to his domestic audience for being
too soft for too long. Cameron gets low
marks for speaking out against Chinas
human rights record or standing up to
Israel over the horrors in Gaza because, in
these examples, British political and
economic interests dictate Londons near
silence. To be fair, UK businesses (Russia is
a major buyer of British cars and financial
services) may suffer through retaliatory
sanctions from Moscow. And oil giant BP
has a significant stake in Russian energy
but Britain has less to lose than the gas-
dependent European states.
The US perhaps has even less to lose,
given that its relations with Russia are
already so low. President Barack Obama
must be considering this as an opportunity
to fast-track Ukraine into Nato thereby
strengthening the neo-iron curtain. But
little has been said publicly: Obama is too
wary of feeding Putins fire. Putin has used
the threat of Nato encroachment to rally
support for his bold nationalist agenda.
Around 2008, the US considered
smoothing the path for Nato membership
for Ukraine, together with Georgia. Euro-
pean states, dependent on Russian resour-
ces, were less keen: the plan was put on the
back burner. In this area, Ukrainian public
opinion which surveys suggest has re-
cently moved to a majority in favour of
joining Nato plays little part in the
nations destiny.
Obama has been clear that US military
involvement in Ukraine is not on the table,
and he is also cautious regarding the provi-
sion of arms. Senior Republican Senator
John McCain did suggest the US should
supply the Ukrainians with military aid if
Russian involvement in the downing of
MH17 is proved. Although his suggestion is
areasonable one, McCain has greater free-
dom to speak his mind, and to tread all
over Russian sensibilities, because hes not
aworld leader.
Since Marchs MH370 tragedy, Malay-
sian observers see their own countrys
standing as rising in the eyes of the worlds
powers. They point to Obamas post-
MH370 visit to their country, and, after a
knee-jerk reaction of condemnation of the
Malaysian authorities in the early weeks,
Beijing is seen as toning down if not
retracting its rhetoric out of respect for
relations with Malaysia.
This time, the focus of criticism falls not
on Malaysian authorities but Russian: in
what terms they should be condemned
depends on who you ask.
Paul Letters is a political commentator
and writer. See paulletters.com
Under Putin, Russia
doesnt look much
like the has-been
power we have
been told it is
Paul Letters says the international response to
Russias role in the downing of MH17 and the
larger Ukraine conflict has been understandably
muddled, given the varying national priorities
Fight or ight
S
exuality is not a choice; science shows genetics
plays a part. Being gay is not something people
can turn on or off, like a switch. What we can
control, however, is the stigma we attach to non-
traditional family arrangements. This is why
Singapores recent attempt to destroy a childrens
book about penguins is like something out of Ray
Bradburys Fahrenheit 451, in which all books are
outlawed.
Singapores National Library Board made the
decision to destroy three childrens books because
they were pro-homosexuality (even though public
outcry forced it to backtrack on two of those titles).
The offending trio were: And Tango Makes Three, a
sweet tale of two male penguins raising a chick
together; The White Swan Express; and Whos In My
Family. The countrys Media Development Authority
also banned for sale an issue of the US comic book
Archie: The Married Life, because it, too, featured a
same-sex marriage.
The very idea that reading a book about two male
penguins is somehow going to turn a child gay is
irrational, insulting and infuriating. Such books are
critically important not just for gay rights, but for
normalising alternative family arrangements.
Ill never forget the day when my son was in a park
in San Francisco and another boy told him he had
two mums. My sons eyes widened. He ran over to me
and asked: Why does this boy have two mums? I
replied: Why not? My son thought about my
answer. Finally, he shrugged and ran back to play
with the boy.
As it turned out, the boys two mums were not gay.
One was his surrogate mother; the other his real
mother. They were raising him together, along with
his father. Here in Asia, an increasing number of
children are being raised by grandparents. In
Shanghai, 90 per cent of the children are reportedly
being looked after by at least one grandparent.
If we are serious about accepting alternative
lifestyles, then childrens books have an important
role to play. Not so long ago, most English-language
childrens books featured Caucasian children living in
big, two-storey houses because the major publishers
were all either in the US or Britain. As a child, I
remember falling in love with the stories. I also
remember looking in the mirror and wondering why I
have black hair and small, brown eyes.
It wasnt until I became a mother myself that I
questioned why my children also had to read only
books about white kids living in the suburbs. That
was when I started writing books so my children,
who are half-Chinese, wont also stand in front of the
mirror and wonder why their lives are so weird.
Their lives are not weird. Neither is the life of the
boy with two mums, the girl with two dads, or the kids
looked after by grandparents. None of this would be
weird if we read more books like And Tango Makes
Three. Singapore prides itself on being a cultural and
intellectual hot spot in Asia. Yet its missing the one
crucial ingredient: freedom of speech. Hong Kong still
has that; lets hang on to it.
Kelly Yang is the founder of The Kelly Yang Project, an after-
school writing and debate centre for students aged 5-17. She
is also the author of several childrens books, including the
best-selling Wheres Broccoli? kelly@kellyyang.edu.hk
Pages of life
Kelly Yang says to teach
acceptance, we should
celebrate books about
non-traditional families,
not censor them as Singapore did
M
atters regarding the
establishment of
universal suffrage in
Hong Kong in 2017 have come to
ahead rather sooner than most
expected. Was it wise for Occupy
Central and its allies to raise the
stakes so high so early? We are
now awaiting a decision by the
National Peoples Congress on
the question of Hong Kongs
electoral system, which is likely
to lead to a hardening of the
fronts on both sides.
In advance of the NPC
statement, radical activist
groups are proposing to launch a
civil disobedience campaign
next month. The groups say this
may not be necessary, as direct
nomination for candidates has
yet to be formally ruled out; but
they are assuming the worst.
Indeed, they are right to
assume the worst, as it is hardly
conceivable that the NPC will
leave any room for doubt as to
the central governments
position on nomination.
Acampaign of active civil
disobedience, as well as putting
great pressure on Hong Kongs
institutions, will severely test the
concept of one country, two
systems; let us hope it will not
test it to destruction.
One iron rule I learnt when
working as a diplomat in China
was this: never ask a question if it
will only provoke the answer you
dont wish to hear.
It was most unwise of the
radical wing of the pan-
democrats to neglect this
proviso. Understandably, many
in Hong Kong have no time for
advice from representatives of
the old colonial power. But one
person whose modus operandi
remains worth studying is Chris
Patten, Hong Kongs last
governor. Seemingly on a hiding
to nothing, with constant
fulminations against him
emanating from Beijing and
only dubious support from his
own diplomats, he managed a
creditable fighting retreat,
leaving Hong Kong self-
confident and well prepared to
establish a modus vivendi with
the central government on the
one country, two systems
principle.
To have given in during the
run-up to the handover would
have left the territory essentially
rudderless, with the mainland
authorities calling all the shots.
As it was, Patten retained control
of events to the very end, by
which time he had established a
space for free public debate over
Hong Kongs future, which
Hongkongers could use to
establish among themselves
precisely how much or how little
democracy they wanted and
were prepared to stand up for.
Yes, this is now an internal
Chinese issue, but it cannot be
denied that the democrats
situation has some similarities to
that of the British in the
mid-1990s.
And if that is the case, raising
the crunch issues at an early
stage conforms to the Patten
playbook. But it remains to be
seen whether the pro-
democracy camp can manage
the fighting retreat tactic
anywhere near as well. Burning
bridges is unlikely to allow for a
retreat to defensible positions;
that is, of course, the point of it,
to try to bolster desperate
courage by leaving no possibility
of retreat or compromise.
And the central government
might also do well to rein in
some of its more enthusiastic
outriders: those who respond to
pan-democratic provocation by
sounding more Catholic than
the Pope, and describing
attempts to draw international
attention to Hong Kong as
conspiring with foreigners.
Nobody can seriously think
the outside world wishes to
interfere: we simply want the
successful post-1997 settlement
to continue for everybodys
benefit.
For that, it is vital to avoid
provoking Beijing into a face-
saving crackdown that would
leave Hong Kong worse off than
before.
Civil disobedience will always
remain an option in a free
society; but maybe it is an option
better not exercised. At the very
least, some fallback positions
should be prepared before the
confrontation becomes really
damaging.
Tim Collard is a former UK diplomat
specialising in China. He spent nine
years as an analyst in Beijing
Pro-democracy camp should
rethink burning its bridges
Tim Collard says active civil disobedience would leave no room for retreat
One rule I learnt:
never ask a
question if it will
only provoke the
answer you dont
wish to hear

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