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This workbook is designed to illustrate three common methods of forecasting via extrapolation with a real data set
consisting of population estimates for the country of India.
The Extrapolation worksheet contains estimates from the US Census Bureau for
India's population at mid-year over the past fifty years and forecasts for the next
fifty years.
The three forecasting methods are:
(1) Linear trend forecast
(2) Logarithmic trend forecast
(3) Autoregressive forecast
Reference Point: 1999
The sheet illustrates both ex post forecasts, in which data for the period 19501990 is used to forecast future population in the period 1991-1999, and ex ante
forecasts in which data from 1950 to 1990 is used to forecast population for the
period 2000-2050.
Data Sources:
US Census
Penn World Tables
Ln(Pop)
5.91
5.93
5.95
5.97
5.98
6.00
6.02
6.04
6.06
6.08
6.10
6.12
6.14
6.16
6.18
6.21
6.23
6.25
6.27
6.30
6.32
6.34
6.37
6.39
6.41
6.43
6.45
6.48
6.50
6.52
6.54
6.56
6.58
6.60
6.62
6.64
6.66
6.69
6.71
6.73
6.75
6.76
6.78
6.80
6.82
Population (millions)
t
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Linear
Log Exp(Log
Trend Trend Trend)
332
5.89
363
344
5.92
371
356
5.94
379
368
5.96
387
380
5.98
395
392
6.00
404
405
6.02
413
417
6.04
422
429
6.07
431
441
6.09
440
453
6.11
449
465
6.13
459
477
6.15
469
489
6.17
479
502
6.19
490
514
6.21
500
526
6.24
511
538
6.26
522
550
6.28
533
562
6.30
545
574
6.32
556
586
6.34
568
599
6.36
581
611
6.39
593
623
6.41
606
635
6.43
619
647
6.45
632
659
6.47
646
671
6.49
660
684
6.51
674
696
6.53
689
708
6.56
704
720
6.58
719
732
6.60
734
744
6.62
750
756
6.64
766
768
6.66
783
781
6.68
800
793
6.71
817
805
6.73
835
817
6.75
853
829
6.77
871
841
6.79
890
853
6.81
909
865
6.83
929
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
1950
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
Ln Population
Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Population
(millions) Pop (t-1)
370
376
370
383
376
390
383
397
390
404
397
412
404
420
412
428
420
437
428
446
437
455
446
464
455
474
464
485
474
496
485
507
496
519
507
530
519
543
530
555
543
568
555
581
568
595
581
608
595
622
608
636
622
649
636
663
649
676
663
690
676
705
690
720
705
736
720
752
736
768
752
784
768
801
784
817
801
834
817
851
834
867
851
883
867
899
883
916
899
6.50
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
6.00
5.90
5.80
1950
45
46
47
48
49
932
949
965
982
998
916
932
949
965
982
6.84
6.86
6.87
6.89
6.91
878
890
902
914
926
6.85
6.88
6.90
6.92
6.94
949
969
990
1011
1033
Population (millions)
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
1950
Estimate
SE
Estimate
SE
Linear Trend
LinSlope
LinInt
12.13
331.74
0.24
5.47
LnTrend
LnSlope
LnInt
0.0213
5.895
0.0001
0.002
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
1940
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
t
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
Population
(millions) Pop (t-1)
370
376
370
383
376
390
383
397
390
404
397
412
404
420
412
428
420
437
428
446
437
455
446
464
455
474
464
485
474
496
485
507
496
519
507
530
519
543
530
555
543
568
555
581
568
595
581
608
595
622
608
636
622
649
636
663
649
676
663
690
676
705
690
720
705
736
720
752
736
768
752
784
768
801
784
817
801
834
817
851
834
867
851
Ln(Pop)
5.91
5.93
5.95
5.97
5.98
6.00
6.02
6.04
6.06
6.08
6.10
6.12
6.14
6.16
6.18
6.21
6.23
6.25
6.27
6.30
6.32
6.34
6.37
6.39
6.41
6.43
6.45
6.48
6.50
6.52
6.54
6.56
6.58
6.60
6.62
6.64
6.66
6.69
6.71
6.73
6.75
6.76
Linear
Log Exp(Log Autoreg
Trend Trend Trend) Forecast
332
5.89
363
344
5.92
371
356
5.94
379
368
5.96
387
380
5.98
395
392
6.00
404
405
6.02
413
417
6.04
422
429
6.07
431
441
6.09
440
453
6.11
449
465
6.13
459
477
6.15
469
489
6.17
479
502
6.19
490
514
6.21
500
526
6.24
511
538
6.26
522
550
6.28
533
562
6.30
545
574
6.32
556
586
6.34
568
599
6.36
581
611
6.39
593
623
6.41
606
635
6.43
619
647
6.45
632
659
6.47
646
671
6.49
660
684
6.51
674
696
6.53
689
708
6.56
704
720
6.58
719
732
6.60
734
744
6.62
750
756
6.64
766
768
6.66
783
781
6.68
800
793
6.71
817
805
6.73
835
817
6.75
853
829
6.77
871
869
200
6.78
6.80
6.82
6.84
6.86
6.87
6.89
6.91
841
853
865
878
890
902
914
926
938
950
963
975
987
999
1011
1023
1035
1047
1060
1072
1084
1096
1108
1120
1132
1144
1157
1169
1181
1193
1205
1217
1229
1242
1254
1266
1278
1290
1302
1314
1326
1339
Population (millions)
Population (millions)
Population (1000s)
1992 42
883
867
1993 43
899
883
1994 44
916
899
1995 45
932
916
1996 46
949
932
1997 47
965
949
1998 48
982
965
1999 49
998
982
2000 50
2001 51
2002 52
2003 53 Two Ex Post Forecasts
India's Population versus Actual
2004 for54
Population: The 1990s
2005
55
1100
2006 56
1050
2007
57
2008 58
1000
2009
59
2010
60
950
2011 61
2012
62
900
2013 63
850
2014
64
2015 65
800
20161990 66 1992
1994
1996
1998
2017 67
Year
2018 68
2019 69
Linear and Exponential Trend Lines for India's
2020 Population
70
with US Census Forecast
2021 71
2022
72
2600
2023
73
2400
2024
74
2200
2000
2025
75
1800
2026
76
1600
2027 77
1400
2028
78
1200
2029 79
1000
2030
80
800
2031 81
600
2032 82
400
2033 83
2000
6.79
890
887
6.81
909
906
6.83
929
925
6.85
949
945
6.88
969
965
6.90
990
985
6.92
1011
1006
6.94
1033
1028
6.96
1055
1050
6.98
1078
1072
7.00
1101
1095
Four Forecasts
Population
7.03
1125of India's1118
7.05
1149
1142
3500
7.07
1174
1166
1200
1191
30007.09
7.11
1225
1216
25007.13
1252
1242
7.15
1279
1268
2000
7.18
1306
1295
15007.20
1335
1323
7.22
1363
1351
1000
7.24
1393
1380
5007.26
1423
1409
7.28
1454
1439
0
7.30 2000 1485
14692030
1990
2010
2020
7.32
1517
1501
Year
7.35
1550
1532
7.37
1583
1565
7.39
1617
1598
7.41
1652
1632
7.43
1688
1667
7.45
1724
1702
7.47
1761
1738
7.50
1799
1775
7.52
1838
1813
7.54
1878
1852
7.56
1918
1891
7.58 Linear1960
1931
Trend Forecast with Excel's Add Trendline
7.60
2002
1972
7.62
2045
2014
1800
7.64
2089
2057
1600
7.67
2134
2101
2010
2030
Year
2050
1351
1363
1375
1387
1399
1411
1423
1436
1448
1460
1472
1484
1496
1508
1521
1533
1545
1400
7.69
7.71
1200
7.73
1000
7.75
7.77800
7.79600
7.82
7.84400
7.86200
7.88 0
7.90 1900
7.92
7.94
7.96
7.99
8.01
8.03
Population (1000s)
200
20341990 84
2035 85
2036 86
2037 87
2038 88
2039 89
2040 90
2041 91
2042 92
2043 93
2044 94
2045 95
2046 96
2047 97
2048 98
2049 99
2050 100
2180
2227
2275
2325
2375
2426
2478
2532
2586
2642
2699 1950
2757
2817
2878
2940
3003
3068
2145
2191
2237
2285
2334
2383
2434
2485
2538
2592
2647 2000
2704 Year
2761
2820
2880
2941
3003
US
Census
Forecast
Estimate
SE
12.13
331.74
0.24
5.47
LnTrend
LnSlope
LnInt
Estimate
0.0213
5.895
SE
0.0001
0.002
Autoregressive Model
AutoSlope
AutoInt
1014 Estimate
1.0212
0.0000
1030
SE 0.000206297
#N/A
1046
of India's Population 1062
1077
1093
1108
1123
1138
1153
1168
1183
1198
1213
1227
1242
1256 2050
2030
2040
1270
1284
1298
1312
1325
1339
1352
1365
1377
1390
1402
1414
1426
d Forecast with Excel's Add Trendline
1437
1448
1459
1470
Estimate
SE
12.13
0.24
2000
Year
1481
1491
1502
1511
1521
1531
1540
1549
1558
1566
15752050
1583
1591
1598
1606
1613
1620
2100
851
-23323.00
463.66
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
Population
(millions)
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
1950
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
6.80
850
6.70
800
6.60
6.50
700
Ln Population
Population (millions)
750
650
600
550
500
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
450
6.00
400
5.90
350
300
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
Ln
Ln Trend Exp(Ln
Residual Lagged
Population Population Line
Trend)
Ln
Residual
370
5.91
5.89
363
0.02
376
5.93
5.92
371
0.01
0.02
383
5.95
5.94
379
0.01
0.01
390
5.97
5.96
387
0.01
0.01
397
5.98
5.98
395
0.00
0.01
404
6.00
6.00
404
0.00
0.00
412
6.02
6.02
413
0.00
0.00
420
6.04
6.04
422
0.00
0.00
428
6.06
6.07
431
-0.01
0.00
437
6.08
6.09
440
-0.01
-0.01
446
6.10
6.11
449
-0.01
-0.01
455
6.12
6.13
459
-0.01
-0.01
464
6.14
6.15
469
-0.01
-0.01
474
6.16
6.17
479
-0.01
-0.01
485
6.18
6.19
490
-0.01
-0.01
496
6.21
6.21
500
-0.01
-0.01
507
6.23
6.24
511
-0.01
-0.01
519
6.25
6.26
522
-0.01
-0.01
530
6.27
6.28
533
-0.01
-0.01
543
6.30
6.30
545
0.00
-0.01
555
6.32
6.32
556
0.00
0.00
568
6.34
6.34
568
0.00
0.00
581
6.37
6.36
581
0.00
0.00
595
6.39
6.39
593
0.00
0.00
5.80
1950
1960
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
608
622
636
649
663
676
690
705
720
736
752
768
784
801
817
834
851
6.41
6.43
6.45
6.48
6.50
6.52
6.54
6.56
6.58
6.60
6.62
6.64
6.66
6.69
6.71
6.73
6.75
6.41
6.43
6.45
6.47
6.49
6.51
6.53
6.56
6.58
6.60
6.62
6.64
6.66
6.68
6.71
6.73
6.75
606
619
632
646
660
674
689
704
719
734
750
766
783
800
817
835
853
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Residual (t)
0.010
0.005
-0.015
-0.010
0.000
-0.005
0.000
0.005
-0.005
-0.010
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
-0.015
Residual (t-1)
0.010
0.015
0.020
Population (millions)
Data
2049
2050
1613
1620
1533
1545
3003
3068
1692
1706
2932
2994
99 Trend Lines
Logarithmic
Slope
Intercept
0.021072 5.897312
1999 Data
2050
Data Sources
US Census Historical Data and Projections have changed between 2002 and 2004.
Penn World Tables data conflicts with US Census
US Census 2002 retrieval
Source: http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=in
US Census June 2004 retrieval
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsprd
Penn World Tables
Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1
Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP)
October 2002.
http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt61_form.php
US Census Projections (2002)
India
Demographic Indicators: 2000 and 2025
2000
25
9
1.6
1.6
62.5
65
3.1
2025
17
8
0.9
0.9
70.9
30
2.2
Year Population
Year
Population Period
Growth
Rate
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
369,880
445,857
555,043
690,462
850,558
1996 948,911
1997 965,334
1998 981,666
1999 997,892
2000 1,014,004
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.1
1.8
1991
1992
1993
866,924
882,946
899,227
1.4
1.2
0.9
1994
1995
915,777
932,417
0.7
0.5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Population
369880000
376222000
382871000
389813000
397016000
404478000
412204000
420207000
428486000
437037000
445857000
454946000
464399526
Millions
369.9
376.2
382.9
389.8
397.0
404.5
412.2
420.2
428.5
437.0
445.9
454.9
464.4
Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
474255037
484755786
495736844
506966654
518502697
530354276
542531001
555042800
567843145
581159491
594732681
608289965
621911145
635592992
649103387
662524021
676277624
690462195
705308228
720467366
735902165
752049159
768318059
784462082
800754800
817232570
833833568
474.3
484.8
495.7
507.0
518.5
530.4
542.5
555.0
567.8
581.2
594.7
608.3
621.9
635.6
649.1
662.5
676.3
690.5
705.3
720.5
735.9
752.0
768.3
784.5
800.8
817.2
833.8
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
Population Millions
3.7E+08
369.9
3.76E+08
376.2
3.83E+08
382.9
3.9E+08
389.8
3.97E+08
397.0
4.04E+08
404.5
4.12E+08
412.2
4.2E+08
420.2
4.28E+08
428.5
4.37E+08
437.0
4.46E+08
445.9
4.55E+08
454.9
4.64E+08
464.4
4.74E+08
4.85E+08
4.96E+08
5.07E+08
5.19E+08
5.3E+08
5.43E+08
5.55E+08
5.68E+08
5.81E+08
5.94E+08
6.07E+08
6.21E+08
6.34E+08
6.47E+08
6.6E+08
6.73E+08
6.87E+08
7.01E+08
7.16E+08
7.31E+08
7.47E+08
7.62E+08
7.78E+08
7.94E+08
8.1E+08
8.26E+08
474.3
484.8
495.7
507.0
518.5
530.4
542.5
555.0
567.8
580.8
594.1
607.3
620.5
633.8
647.0
660.0
673.3
687.0
701.4
716.1
731.0
746.7
762.4
778.0
793.7
809.6
825.6
Discrepancy
with 2002
Census
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Population
368633.3
374563.1
380492.9
386422.6
392352.4
398282.1
406188.5
415083.1
422989.5
431884.1
434849
444470.4
454584.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.9
4.4
4.9
5.4
5.9
6.5
7.1
7.7
8.3
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
465132.6
476060.9
487324
498883.7
510708.6
522774.6
535064.7
547569
560267.5
573129.9
586219.8
599642.7
613459
627632.4
642133.6
656940.5
672020.9
687332
702821.2
718425.6
734071.9
749676.9
765147
781893
798680
815590
832535
1990
1991
850558120
866924093
850.6
866.9
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
882946109
899226905
915777189
932416746
948910783
965334078
981666198
997892285
1014003817
1029991145
1045845226
1061557965
1077116060
1092502123
1107777340
1123003245
1138162129
1153237119
1168204502
1183076339
1197867377
1212557748
1227132500
1241572118
1255888663
1270091185
1284151435
1298044413
1311747009
1325263315
1338596566
1351722681
1364618152
1377264176
1389678841
1401882702
1413863936
1425608209
1437103148
1448368760
1459427933
1470275936
882.9
899.2
915.8
932.4
948.9
965.3
981.7
997.9
1014.0
1030.0
1045.8
1061.6
1077.1
1092.5
1107.8
1123.0
1138.2
1153.2
1168.2
1183.1
1197.9
1212.6
1227.1
1241.6
1255.9
1270.1
1284.2
1298.0
1311.7
1325.3
1338.6
1351.7
1364.6
1377.3
1389.7
1401.9
1413.9
1425.6
1437.1
1448.4
1459.4
1470.3
1990 8.42E+08
1991 8.57E+08
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
8.73E+08
8.89E+08
9.06E+08
9.22E+08
9.38E+08
9.55E+08
9.71E+08
9.87E+08
1E+09
1.02E+09
1.03E+09
1.05E+09
1.07E+09
1.08E+09
1.1E+09
1.11E+09
1.13E+09
1.14E+09
1.16E+09
1.17E+09
1.18E+09
1.2E+09
1.21E+09
1.23E+09
1.24E+09
1.26E+09
1.27E+09
1.28E+09
1.3E+09
1.31E+09
1.32E+09
1.34E+09
1.35E+09
1.36E+09
1.37E+09
1.39E+09
1.4E+09
1.41E+09
1.42E+09
1.43E+09
1.44E+09
1.45E+09
841.7
857.4
8.9
9.5
873.2
889.3
905.6
922.1
938.4
954.6
970.8
986.8
1002.7
1018.5
1034.2
1049.7
1065.1
1080.3
1095.4
1110.4
1125.4
1140.2
1155.0
1169.7
1184.3
1198.8
1213.2
1227.5
1241.6
1255.7
1269.6
1283.3
1296.8
1310.2
1323.4
1336.4
1349.1
1361.6
1373.9
1386.0
1397.8
1409.4
1420.8
1431.9
1442.8
1453.5
9.8
9.9
10.1
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.9
11.1
11.3
11.5
11.7
11.9
12.0
12.2
12.4
12.6
12.8
13.0
13.2
13.4
13.6
13.7
13.9
14.1
14.3
14.4
14.6
14.7
14.9
15.1
15.2
15.4
15.5
15.6
15.8
15.9
16.1
16.2
16.3
16.5
16.6
16.7
1990
849515
1991 866530.4
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
882300
898200
913600
929358
945611.8
962377.7
979672.9
997515.2
1015923
2034
1480907557
2035
1491319550
2036
1501504651
2037
1511456849
2038
1521176128
2039
1530661146
2040
1539911008
2041
1548928301
2042
1557715058
2043
1566269571
2044
1574589693
2045
1582673972
2046
1590523506
2047
1598139583
2048
1605521642
2049
1612669068
2050
1619582271
------------------------------------
1480.9
1491.3
1501.5
1511.5
1521.2
1530.7
1539.9
1548.9
1557.7
1566.3
1574.6
1582.7
1590.5
1598.1
1605.5
1612.7
1619.6
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
1.46E+09
1.47E+09
1.48E+09
1.49E+09
1.5E+09
1.51E+09
1.52E+09
1.53E+09
1.54E+09
1.55E+09
1.56E+09
1.56E+09
1.57E+09
1.58E+09
1.59E+09
1.59E+09
1.6E+09
1464.0
1474.3
1484.4
1494.2
1503.8
1513.2
1522.3
1531.2
1539.9
1548.3
1556.6
1564.5
1572.3
1579.8
1587.1
1594.2
1601.0
16.9
17.0
17.1
17.2
17.4
17.5
17.6
17.7
17.8
17.9
18.0
18.1
18.2
18.3
18.4
18.5
18.6
Millions
368.6
374.6
380.5
386.4
392.4
398.3
406.2
415.1
423.0
431.9
434.8
444.5
454.6
Discrepancy
with 2002
Census
1.2
1.7
2.4
3.4
4.7
6.2
6.0
5.1
5.5
5.2
11.0
10.5
9.8
465.1
476.1
487.3
498.9
510.7
522.8
535.1
547.6
560.3
573.1
586.2
599.6
613.5
627.6
642.1
656.9
672.0
687.3
702.8
718.4
734.1
749.7
765.1
781.9
798.7
815.6
832.5
9.1
8.7
8.4
8.1
7.8
7.6
7.5
7.5
7.6
8.0
8.5
8.6
8.5
8.0
7.0
5.6
4.3
3.1
2.5
2.0
1.8
2.4
3.2
2.6
2.1
1.6
1.3
849.5
866.5
1.0
0.4
882.3
898.2
913.6
929.4
945.6
962.4
979.7
997.5
1015.9
0.6
1.0
2.2
3.1
3.3
3.0
2.0
0.4
-1.9
Year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
370
376
383
390
397
404
412
420
428
437
446
455
464
474
485
496
507
519
530
543
555
568
581
595
608
622
636
649
663
676
690
705
720
736
370
376
383
390
397
404
412
420
428
437
446
455
464
474
485
496
507
519
530
543
555
568
581
595
608
622
636
649
663
676
690
705
720
LN Pop
5.91
5.93
5.95
5.97
5.98
6.00
6.02
6.04
6.06
6.08
6.10
6.12
6.14
6.16
6.18
6.21
6.23
6.25
6.27
6.30
6.32
6.34
6.37
6.39
6.41
6.43
6.45
6.48
6.50
6.52
6.54
6.56
6.58
6.60
0.235355 5.469167
0.985532 17.83119
2656.552
39
844654.1
12400.1
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
752
768
784
801
817
834
851
736
752
768
784
801
817
834
6.62
6.64
6.66
6.69
6.71
6.73
6.75
as the X variable
Pred ln Y = b0 + b1t
0.02134 5.894656
8.57E-05 0.001992
Pred Yt = b1Yt-1
1.021248
0.000206
#N/A
0.999371 0.006493
0.999998 0.762423
61997.55
24506240
39
2.614078 0.001644
39
14245209 22.67027