presented by

Ted Petropoulos
HEAD
PETROFIN RESEARCH

Global Capital Forum
4
th
February 2014
King George Palace Hotel


Increasing commitment towards purchases
and newbuilding orders by Greeks.

How are these funded?
Presentation outline
1. Shipfinance and acquisition trends the Greek story and Globally
2. Sources of finance for vessel acquisition
3. The funding situation
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
4. Summary and Conclusions
In 2013, the Greek orders amounted to 275 (compared to 881 in 2012-
Clarksons), up from 135 in 2012 (Sources: Moundreas and Naftiliaki). Greeks
have ordered the most ships, about 25% of global orders, of a total value
approx. $13bn (Source: Moundreas)

In the S&P of second hand vessels, an overall of 1500 ships were bought, of
which approx. 375 were bought by Greeks, followed by the Chinese with
less than 125 (Sources: Naftiliaki, Allied Shipbrokers).

Value for the Greek fleet (excluding rigs, offshore and cruises) estimated at
US$101bn (Source: VesselsValue.com)
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
1. Ship finance and ship acquisition trends
The Greek story
According to Petrofin Bank Research , lending into Greek shipping has
been falling from $67.7bn end 2011 to $65.8bn end of 2012.

We are in the process of completing Petrofin Bank Research as of end 2013.
We anticipate a further drop in Greek shipfinance, in view of the condition
of the remaining 5 Greek banks and of most of the other major lenders to
Greek shipping adopting serious lending restrictions.

PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
1. Ship finance and ship acquisition trends
The Greek story
Norwegians may not have ordered the most ships, but have spent the most
money on orders (approx. 17bn worth of newbuildings, in 2013 (Source:
Clarksons)
Global ship lending figures (drawn and committed) as of November 2013 are
estimated at $460bn (Petrofin Research ).
The above includes the offshore support sector but excludes rigs and
shipyard finance
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
1. Ship finance and ship acquisition trends
Globally
The Global Fleet value, excluding rigs, offshore and cruises is estimated at
US$660bn (Source: VesselsValue.com)
Tufton Oceanic have estimated that the value of the global fleet INCLUDING
offshore, rigs, and all orders, but not cruises, as of January 2014, stands at
US$1.269tr.
In Graph 1, we present the latest Petrofin Bank Research , on the shipping
loan portfolio of the top 40 global ship finance banks representing $404.19bn
of total loans (87.86% of the total).
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
1. Ship finance and ship acquisition trends
Globally
Top 40 banks as of beginning December 2013: $404bn
November 2012 - Top 40 ship finance banks portfolios stand at approximately at $422.135bn
Bank Lending to Shipping
Ship finance based on interim data up to beginning December 2013 in $bn
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
* Market estimate
29.96
21.6
19
18
17.5
17
16.5
16
15.93
15
15
15
14
14
12.5
12
11
10.8
10
10
8
8
8
8
7.2
6
5.5
5
5
5
5
4
3
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.25
2.25
2
1.7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
DnB
Commerzbank
Bank of China*
KfW*
HSH Nordbank-only core*
ICBC*
Korea Exim*
RBS
Nordea
BTMU*
Nord LB*
DVB
BNP Paribas
China Exim*
Credit Agricole*+75%Emporiki
Credit Suisse*
HSBC
Citibank
SMBC*
ABN Amro
Bremer Landesbank*
Deutsche Shipping - Deutsche Bank*
Danish Ship Finance
ING*
Unicredit
Standard and Chartererd*
Lloyds Banking Group**
Danske Bank/Fokus Bank*
SEB*
DBS
Santander*
Japan Bank for International Co-operation*
Societe General*
National Bank of Greece*
Commonwealth Bank of Australia*
Piraeus Bank*
Deka*
Alpha Bank*
NIBC
Swedbank*
Ship finance based on data up to beginning December 2013 in $bn
Top 40 Bank Lending to Shipping
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
Graph 2
Source: Petrofin Bank Research December 2013
462.9
436.18
449.76
454.89
422.135
404.19
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Last year, the top 6 banks share was approx. 34.17% (with a combined portfolio
of $144.25bn).

This year the top 6 banks share is 30.45% (with a combined portfolio of
$123.06bn)

Lastly, European bank exposure accounted for 83.12% of the top 40 total in 2010
and 81.69% up to November 2011 and 75.13% in November 2012 and 71.84% at
beginning December 2013.
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
Globally
1. Ship finance and ship acquisition trends
Top 40 banks in terms of geographical position, portfolios and percentage hold of the totals
from 2010 to beginning December 2013
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
Source: Petrofin Bank Research December 2013
Graph 3
-$40.00
$10.00
$60.00
$110.00
$160.00
$210.00
$260.00
$310.00
$360.00
$410.00
$460.00
Europe USA Far East and Australasia
$373.86
$9.50
$66.40
360.88
7.51
86.50
317.14
12.00
93.00
290.39
10.80
103.00
2010 2011 2012 2013
Graph 4
Germany
Holland
France and Belgium
UK and Ireland
Other
Scandinavia
Greece
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
European banks Comparison between 2010 and up to
beginning December 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
UK and Ireland France and Belgium Holland Germany Greece Scandinavia Other European
53.86
36.7
13
154.44
12.78
82.58
20.5
$53.35
$31.84
$17.62
$151.32
$9.72
$82.03
$15.00
43.5
27.2
18.1
141.04
5.895
66.65
14.75
38.5
26.50
20.00
112.55
7.250
65.6
20.00
2010 2011 2012 2013

Bank finance (Western banks): declining/highly depending on owner
(The top 6 banks last year held a portfolio of $144.25bn, in May 2013 this stood at $135.5bn, whereas in
December 2013 their collective portfolio was down to $123bn)

Bank finance (Far Eastern banks): negligible

Public markets: rising
(Navios Maritime Acquisition acquired 2 bulkers at $160m, Star bulk spent $60m for 2 post-panamax, DHT
buys two second-hand VLCCs for $99m and many others)
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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2. Sources of finance for vessel acquisition
Second hand purchases

Export credit agencies: negligible

Own capital resources: rapidly increasing

International Private Capital (Equity funds): rapidly increasing/depending
on owner
(Euronav's $1bn takeover of the the 15-strong VLCC fleet of Maersk Tankers. Equity from BHRCapital,
Glendon Capital Management and Solus Alternative Asset Management, GoldenTree Asset Management,
York Capital Management, BlueMountain Capital and Avenue Capital Group.) (Source: Tradewinds,
Naftiliaki)

Private capital: rapidly increasing/depending on owner
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
2. Sources of finance for vessel acquisition
Second hand purchases continued

Bank finance (Western banks): low/ highly depending on owner

Bank finance (Far Eastern banks): increasing/ highly depending on owner
(Costamare)

Public markets: rising
(Scorpio, Star Bulk, Blue Wall Shipping, New Lead etc.)

Export credit agencies: increasing
(ECGD, Coface, Hermes, GIEK, CEXIM their export credit agency, Atradius)
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
Newbuilding acquisitions
2. Sources of finance for vessel acquisition

Own capital resources: increasing
International Private Capital (Equity funds): rapidly increasing/depending
on owner
(Jeff Pribor (Jefferies head of investment) says owners should not fear a shipping recovery being wrecked
by the run of money from the capital markets and private equity. Pribor asserted that the $8bn raised by
listed shipping companies in 2013 and the potential $12bn private equity presence in the industry lack the
scale to be a problem.
Euroseas
Private capital (independent investors): rapidly increasing
% of newbuilding finance covered: less than 25%
PETROFIN RESEARCH
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Newbuilding acquisitions continued
2. Sources of finance for vessel acquisition
3. The funding situation

Sources January 2012 Sources January 2014
Government,
USD 60, 6%
Bonds, USD 59,
5%
Public Equity,
USD 223, 20%
Bank Debt, USD
477, 43%
private Equity,
USD 246, 22%
Unfunded
Orderbook, USD
47, 4%
Government,
USD 137, 11%
Bonds, USD 94,
7%
Public Equity,
USD 190, 15%
Bank Debt, USD
455, 36%
private Equity,
USD 278, 22%
Unfunded
Orderbook, USD
115, 9%
2012 - World Fleet & Orderbook Value USD 1.112 trillion
2014 - World Fleet & Orderbook Value USD 1.269 trillion
Source: Tufton Oceanic data
3. The funding situation

Uses January 2012 Uses January 2014
Dry, USD 281,
22%
Wet, USD 266,
21%
Container, USD
130, 10%
General Cargo,
USD 65, 5%
Offshore, USD
528, 42%
Source: Tufton Oceanic data
Dry, USD 258,
23%
Wet, USD 252,
22%
Container, USD
165, 15%
General Cargo,
USD 74, 7%
Offshore, USD
363, 33%
4. Summary and conclusions
1. Greeks remain totally committed to shipping, as the prognosis for shipping and
especially dry and wet are very positive

2. Interest in acquiring more vessels is accelerating.

3. Every financial and private capital source is being exploited

4. Increasingly more reliance on own resources

5. Newbuilding order book remains largely speculative
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr
Thank you
PETROFIN RESEARCH
www.petrofin.gr

February 2014