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Image: Jen Christiansen

If the 20th century was an expansive era


seemingly without boundariesa time of jet
planes, space travel and the Internetthe
early years of the 21st have showed us the
limits of our small world. Regional blackouts
remind us that the flow of energy we used to
take for granted may be in tight supply. The
once mighty Colorado River, tapped by
thirsty metropolises of the desert West, no
longer reaches the ocean. Oil is so hard to
find that new wells extend many kilometers
underneath the seafloor. The boundless
atmosphere is now reeling from two
centuries worth of greenhouse gas
emissions. Even life itself seems to be
running out, as biologists warn that we are
in the midst of a global extinction event
comparable to the last throes of the
dinosaurs.
The constraints on our resources and
environmentcompounded by the rise of
the middle class in nations such as China
and Indiawill shape the rest of this
century and beyond. Here is a visual
accounting of what we have left to work
with, a map of our resources plotted against
time.
19762005 >> Glacier Melt
Accelerates
Glaciers have been losing their mass at an
accelerating rate in recent decades. In some
regions such as Europe and the Americas,
glaciers now lose more than half a meter
each year.
2014 >> The Peak of Oil
The most common answer to how much oil is left is depends on how hard you
want to look. As easy-to-reach fields run dry, new technologies allow oil companies
to tap harder-to-reach places (such as 5,500 meters under the Gulf of Mexico).
Traditional statistical models of oil supply do not account for these advances, but a
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How Much Is Le? The Limits
of Earth's Resources
A graphical accounting of the limits to what one planet can provide
By Michael Moyer and Carina Storrs
Energy & Sustainability :: Feature Articles :: August 24, 2010 :: 11 Comments :: Email ::
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technological improvement. Though still controversial, this multicyclic approach
predicts that global oil production is set to peak in four years and that by the 2050s
we will have pulled all but 10 percent of the world's oil from the ground.
2025 >> Battle Over Water
In many parts of the world, one major river supplies water to multiple countries.
Climate change, pollution and population growth are putting a significant strain on
supplies. In some areas renewable water reserves are in danger of dropping below
the 500 cubic meters per person per year considered a minimum for a functioning
society.
Potential Hot Spots:
Egypt A coalition of countries led by Ethiopia is challenging old agreements that
allow Egypt to use more than 50 percent of the Niles flow. Without the river, all of
Egypt would be desert.
Eastern Europe: Decades of pollution have fouled the Danube, leaving downstream
countries, such as Hungary and the Republic of Moldova, scrambling to find new
sources of water.
Middle East: The Jordan River, racked by drought and diverted by Israeli, Syrian and
Jordanian dams, has lost 95 percent of its former flow.
Former Soviet Union: The Aral Sea, at one time the worlds fourth-largest inland sea,
has lost 75 percent of its water because of agricultural diversion programs begun in
the 1960s.
2028 >> Indium
Indium is a silvery metal that sits next to platinum on the periodic table and shares
many of its properties such as its color and density.* Indium tin oxide is a thin-film
conductor used in flat-panel televisions. At current production levels, known indium
reserves contain an 18-year world supply.
2029 >> Silver
Because silver naturally kills microbes, it is increasingly used in bandages and as
coatings for consumer products. At current production levels, about 19 years worth
of silver remains in the ground, but recycling should extend that supply by decades.
2030 >> Gold
The global financial crisis has boosted demand for gold, which is seen by many as a
tangible (and therefore lower-risk) investment. According to Julian Phillips, editor of
the Gold Forecaster newsletter, probably about 20 years are left of gold that can be
easily mined.
>> Fewer Fish
Fish are our last truly wild food, but the rise in demand for seafood has pushed many
species to the brink of extinction. Here are five of the most vulnerable.
Hammerhead Sharks have declined by 89 percent since 1986. The animals are
sought for their fins, which are a delicacy in soup.
Russian Sturgeon have lost spawning grounds because of exploitation for caviar.
Numbers are down 90 percent since 1965.
Yellowmouth Grouper may exist only in pockets of its former range, from Florida to
Brazil.
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reproduces late in life, recovery could take 200 years.
Orange Roughy off the coast of New Zealand have declined by 80 percent since the
1970s because of overfishing by huge bottom trawlers.
>> Our Mass Extinction
Biologists warn that we are living in the midst of a mass extinction on par with the
other five great events in Earths history, including the Permian-Triassic extinction
(also known as the Great Dying; it knocked out up to 96 percent of all life on Earth)
and the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction that killed the dinosaurs. The cause of our
troubles? Us. Human mastery over the planet has pushed many species out of their
native habitats; others have succumbed to hunting or environmental pollutants. If
trends continueand unfortunately, species loss is acceleratingthe world will soon
be a far less diverse place.
2044 >> Copper
Copper is in just about everything in infrastructure, from pipes to electrical
equipment. Known reserves currently stand at 540 million metric tons, but recent
geologic work in South America indicates there may be an additional 1.3 billion
metric tons of copper hidden in the Andes Mountains.
2050 >> Feeding A Warming World
Researchers have recently started to untangle the complex ways rising temperatures
will affect global agriculture. They expect climate change to lead to longer growing
seasons in some countries; in others the heat will increase the frequency of extreme
weather events or the prevalence of pests. In the U.S., productivity is expected to rise
in the Plains states but fall further in the already struggling Southwest. Russia and
China will gain; India and Mexico will lose. In general, developing nations will take
the biggest hits. By 2050 counteracting the ill effects of climate change on nutrition
will cost more than $7 billion a year.
>> Mortal Threats
As the total number of species declines, some have fared worse than others. Here are
five life-forms, the estimated percentage of species thought to be endangered, and an
example of the threats they face.
Mammals
18 percent endangered
The Iberian lynx feeds on rabbits, a prey in short supply in the lynxs habitat ever
since a pediatrician introduced the disease myxomatosis from Australia to France in
1952 to kill the rabbits in his garden.
Plants
8 percent endangered
The St. Helena redwood is native to the island in the South Atlantic where Napoleon
lived his last years. Its excellent timber led to exploitation; by the 20th century only
one remained in the wild.
Lizards
20 percent endangered
The blue spiny lizard must retreat from the sun before it overheats; higher
temperatures have cut down on the time it can forage for food.
Birds
10 percent endangered
The black-necked crane suffers from habitat loss in the wetlands of the Tibetan
plateau.
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30 percent endangered
Archeys frog has been devastated by a fungal disease in its native New Zealand.
2060 >> Changing the Course of a River
Climate change will shift weather patterns, leading to big changes in the amount of
rain that falls in any given region, as well as the amount of water flowing through
streams and rivers. Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey averaged the results of 12
climate models to predict how streamflow will alter over the next 50 years. While
East Africa, Argentina and other regions benefit from more water, southern Europe
and the western U.S. will suffer.
2070 >> Himalayan Ice
Snow melt from the Himalayas is a prime source of water for Asias major river
valleys, including the Yellow, Yangtze, Mekong and Ganges. By 2070 ice-covered
landmass in the Himalayas could decrease by 43 percent.
2072 >> Limits of Coal
Unlike oil, coal is widely thought to be virtually inexhaustible. Not so, says David
Rutledge of the California Institute of Technology. Governments routinely
overestimate their reserves by a factor of four or more on the assumption that
hard-to-reach seams will one day open up to new technology. Mature coal mines
show that this has not been the case. The U.K.the birthplace of coal miningoffers
an example. Production grew through the 19th and early 20th centuries, then fell as
supplies were depleted. Cumulative production curves in the U.K. and other mature
regions have followed a predictable S shape. By extrapolating to the rest of the
worlds coal fields, Rutledge concludes that the world will extract 90 percent of
available coal by 2072.
2100 >> The Alps
Parts of the Alps are warming so quickly that the Rhone Glacier is expected to have
disappeared by the end of the century.
2560 >> Lithium
Because lithium is an essential component of the batteries in electric cars, many
industry analysts have worried publicly that supplies wont keep up with growing
demand for the metal. Still, known lithium reserves are big enough to keep us
supplied for more than five centuries, even ignoring the vast supply of lithium in
seawater.
*Erratum (11/19/10): Indium was incorrectly described as being next to platinum
on the periodic table. It sits next to tin, and does not share many of platinum's
properties. This error also appears in the interactive version of this article.
This article was originally published with the title How Much Is Left?.
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4 of 8 7/08/2013 1:26 PM
1. DouglasHayBuettner
11:01 AM 8/24/10
We should use more than just wind and solar for renewable
energy resources in the future. More science and technology
will have to help us provide for saving, recycling, and proving
new renewable energy sources. These sources could come from
bio-fuel, nanotechnology, etc.
Why don't human's do something about deforestation and
extinction? Reducing emissions from deforestation and
degradation is a UN program to help stop deforestation and
extinctions from happening. Why wait until 2012? Why not
start now?
Climate change causes pressure on the agricultural markets,
reduces productivity and increases mal-nourished children
and wars in the world. What we need are more people working
on collecting data and analyzing it to see what direction is
necessary to take to solve the issues related to climate change,
agricultural needs, productivity needs, pricing needs, etc.
What is going to happen after the glaciers and ice is gone?
What is going to happen when all the cold water is gone? Will
things start drying out or will there be more precipitation and
eventual freezing again?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this
2. DouglasHayBuettner
11:02 AM 8/24/10
We should use more than just wind and solar for renewable
energy resources in the future. More science and technology
will have to help us provide for saving, recycling, and proving
new renewable energy sources. These sources could come from
bio-fuel, nanotechnology, etc.
Why don't human's do something about deforestation and
extinction? Reducing emissions from deforestation and
degradation is a UN program to help stop deforestation and
extinctions from happening. Why wait until 2012? Why not
start now?
Climate change causes pressure on the agricultural markets,
reduces productivity and increases mal-nourished children
and wars in the world. What we need are more people working
on collecting data and analyzing it to see what direction is
necessary to take to solve the issues related to climate change,
agricultural needs, productivity needs, pricing needs, etc.
What is going to happen after the glaciers and ice is gone?
What is going to happen when all the cold water is gone? Will
things start drying out or will there be more precipitation and
eventual freezing again?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this
3. aquaponics.me.uk
06:34 PM 8/24/10
There is a real human attraction for a disaster story, just think
of Struwelpeter!
Calm down, nothing is being used up, our landfill will be mined
soon, it doesn't take 300 gallons of water to make a loaf of
bread, the water just re-enters the hydrological cycle at a
different place.
The Aral Sea is refilling significantly, global warming will
cause increased precipitation in desert areas, such as
Antarctica, causing a drop in sea level as the ice accumulates!
The problems are our physical damage to the biological
environment, see www.aquaponics.me.uk - join us!
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this
4. ennui
06:54 PM 8/24/10
I discovered the technology of the Flying Saucer in 1967 and
patented it later. (That is how gravity control works.)
I did not describe in the patent how they "tap" energy out of the
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I suspect that Tesla used it for his electric Pierce Arrow Car in
1931 but did not dare to divulge how it worked, as he realized
that it also could be used to power homes all over the world.
The investors of the Niagara Falls Power plant would have
terminated him.
He did not take a patent out. I will patent it when I have
enough capital to develop it safely and get world-wide patents.
The invention of gravity control had been evaluated at $600
Billion if the USA had it before Russia. Nasa was not
interested, it would make the Propulsion Engineers and the
Rocket Industry obsolete.
The free energy spin-off is worth a little bit more.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this
5. denisaf
05:29 AM 8/25/10
I have not yet seen the complete article but I would make a
point about what is happening. Every day the systems of
industrial civilization are irreversibly using up some of the
limited natural resources and doing irrevocable damage to the
environment. That is an unsustainable process. Finding new
resources and implementing innovative technology does not
change that principle. The common contrary rhetoric cannot
change the fact that our decisions have led to the construction
of a materialistic civilization that is addicted to ravishing its
life support system.
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6. mike cook
06:32 AM 8/26/10
The popular feeling is that human progress is unsustainable
because we are using up "irreplaceable" resources. This
cultural propaganda is nothing but a pessimistic mindset being
brainwashed into children. All that negative mood represents
is a complete misunderstanding of human progress, akin to
postulating that humans would be in trouble as soon as they no
longer could easily find flint to make spear points and
arrowheads.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this
7.
lesliehelm@comcast.net
12:24 PM 8/30/10
There is no source cited for the data on food production in
"feeding a warming world." What institutions are making those
kinds of projections?
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this
8.
lesliehelm@comcast.net
12:25 PM 8/30/10
what is the source for the data on "Feeding a Warming World."
Who are the scientists or institutions making those projections.
No sources are cited.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this
9. StudentAA
10:52 PM 1/19/11
Technological innovation could help solve some of our
problems of shrinking natural resources. For example
technology has solved Singapore's water problem with
desalination, NEWater and imported water. I think technology
cant really solve problems like global warming especially if we
keep using fossil fuels.
Singapore doesn't have enough natural water to supply the
country's needs, this is 200 cubic meters per person a year. So
Singapore has solved this problem by using technology. Now
they use imported water from Malaysia by pumping it across
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sewage into fresh clean water, as well as turning salt water into
fresh water. Singapore has 17 water catchment areas and if you
see how much clean water they have now, it is enough to supply
the country. Without technology it would not be possible for
Singapore to get the water it needs.
Something technology can not solve is the problem of people
using fossil fuels. We have the technology to invent new ways of
transportation and other sources of energy. People think the
new technology is too expensive to use, so they dont make the
change. Actually we should use bikes or other things that don't
use fossil fuels instead cars, buses and other outdated
transportation. Another reason people dont want to use new
technology is because the companies that make money from
fossil fuels attempt to prevent new technology. Technology can
solve our problems of shrinking our natural resources but only
if we choose to use it properly. We are not using different
technology for energy and I think it is people that are causing
the problem.
Although there are many ways that we can replace fossil fuels
with newer Eco friendlier technology people refuse to use
them. On the other hand Technology has solved Singapores
water shortage issue by providing enough clean water in other
ways. Technology can not solve all our problems because I
believe people refuse to use it properly. However, if
governments made changes and worked together we could
make a difference.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this
10. denisaf
in reply to mike cook
04:02 AM 2/8/11
That comment expresses the opinion of an individual without
any backing argument. It does not stand up to any scrutiny.
Perhaps he may care to read Laprin's Leaks and then make
some constructive comments.
Reply | Report Abuse | Link to this
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