Stock Market Survival & the Meaning of Life ...a retrospective While browsing around in the barns piles the other day, I came upon an old button which read Justin E. Mamis, Assistant Director, Department of Floor Procedure. That sent my mind off in reminiscing. Working for the New York Stock Exchange was the only real job I ever had, and I was, so to speak, the helper to the head of the Floor Department, a wonderful fatherly Irish gentleman. One afternoon while standing together in the middle of the Exchange floor, looking up at the tape, he turned to me and said, A wonderful day. The Exchange is going to have volume of 10 million shares for the very first time. Imagine how long ago that must have been, how young I must have been. Instead of staying with the Exchange, however, I had a chance to go to work as a Member-Trader for Phelan, Silver (John Phelan subsequently became head of the NYSE). I sat upstairs next to Lew Horowitz, a major partner in the firm, leaning over the railing to keep an eye on what was happening on the Floor below. Lew would tell people that he made money from Justins mumbles and so he did. He subsequently became Vice Chairman (Grasso became Chair) and prices on the Floor went from eighths and quarters to pennies, and the whole market world became different, and Ive never forgiven it. Thats one recollection. Another is earlier. I came back from serving in Korea with $5000 (nothing to spend money on in Pusan except for a wonderful painting that still hangs on our wall). I asked our prosperous college roommate what to do with that money, and he took me to a brokerage house we Justin then Barron's September 13, 1993 Justin now RETIRED! JUSTIN MAMIS mamismail@aol.com 2 think it was Goodbody. We sat with a partner who explained owning stocks and such and recommended three stocks: AT&T, GE and DuPont, the three adding up to our military savings. Having little else to do, I began to read the newspapers financial section every day to see how my three stocks were doing. I remember very clearly: one was going down, one was going up, and the third was going nowhere, and I said, loudly, to myself: Theres got to be a better way! Not long after, I discovered Barrons not so much for the texts, which I didnt understand, but for the various small advertisements recommending this way to get rich, or that way to pick stocks, and such, usually charging two bucks for a sample, and among those ads was a $5 one for John Magees discussions. I forget the details but remember that for the same five bucks, I also got several charts in each issue, so I started learning things Id never heard of before. I found an edition of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (Edwards and Magee) and still have it on the shelf right in front of me (plus a copy of Magees The General Semantics of Wall Street)and not only that, I have used Magees chart paper all these decades up to and including the charts I posted for the last time last week. (A big pile of unused, 11x17 chart paper is available cheap!). So there you have it. After five decades, I cant think of anything else to do in the stock market besides sincerely thanking each of you who have been compiling, formatting, editing, fixing, contributing to, following, paying for, inspiring and even criticizing my work over these many years. And finally, I want to thank the stock market itself. Although it has no more socially redeeming value than pornography, it is never boring (even on dull days), often fascinating (even when aggravating), and occasionally challenging enough to redeem it socially. I wish for all of us enough stimulation from the market, as our equivalent of Picassos brush and Casalss bow, to keep us going into a similarly, lively old age. From The Nature of Risk (Stock Market Survival and the Meaning of Life (1991) The value of technical analysis in the stock market is to reduce risk. It is especially helpful in guiding you to believe what otherwise seems unacceptable. By extension, therefore, it is most helpful at identifying significant market turns, both for the market and for individual stocks. The action of individual stocks cumulatively becomes the most important indicator of market direction, and all our internal indicators are but reliable ways of summarizing that individual stock action. (Sentiment indicators are attempts to identify the consensus so as to be grouchily contrarian). Stock charts and the indicators are like doctors advice: exercise, diet, reduce stress, and so on. They are a means of establishing imperfect but relatively objective ways to understand market risks and market choices. Id prefer to be a purist shut the door and look only at the charts, using John Magees dictum of reading the newspaper only when it is yellow but stock market life isnt like that. Decisions real decisions are made by those who know what they are doing and why, and with the power of money behind those decisions. They are the lords of the playing field, while the technician is but the observer and reporter of their (collective) behavior. Experience over the years tells me that (1) in a crunch confusion, chaos, crisis being pure helps: (a) put blinders on in trying to understand the markets behavior; (b) try to be on the side of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) specialist; and (c) constantly ask oneself: what is the least expected thing the market could do? (Such guidelines would have helped immeasurably at such otherwise bewildering times as October 19 and 20, 1987 and January 15 and 16, 1991). Justin 3 At other times, however, (2) recognize that all significant (that is, affecting the price) buying and selling stems from some form or other of fundamentals. Chief among these, perhaps in order of importance, are (a) corporate management; (b) the reliability of corporate information; and then (c) whatever information book value, cash flow, even earnings and dividends a particular investor values. Fundamentals, therefore, are derived apart from the market, whereas technical factors are rooted in the market itself. We would argue that fundamental forecasts are based on judgments as to how the company is likely to do in the future applied subjectively to future price in the marketplace, whereas a technical forecast is based on the potential validity of those judgments as revealed by objective data already in the marketplace. In both cases, however, the willingness to forecast is vital. Theres really nothing you can do about the inherent risk of being in the stock market at all and little you can do about the ongoing risk that, because the market is constantly changing, no sooner do we act than we may perceive something significantly different occurring. The future is not guaranteed. And all choices have a possibility of failure. But thats as true of daily life as it is of the stock market. Crossing the street symbolizes the sense of risk that every little act involves as we cross into the future. It expresses our ability to look both ways, to be careful or careless, to be in control of our own destiny and yet vulnerable to what others, including crazy people, might do. Snippets from The Nature of Risk In a simple standard Collegiate Notebook bought in any stationery store or supermarket , each morning I record the DJIAs high, low, and closing price, its price change from the previous day, NYSE highs and lows, the advances and declines and the days volume. On the notebooks facing page, I then record the net differential between advances and declines and calculate the 10-day moving average of that differential I make a joke of saying that I dont know whats happening or what is likely to happen next until I put my pencil to the piece of chart paper and sketch in the days price and volume action. It sounds silly because there is obviously no artistic leeway to change where I draw that line; nevertheless, there is a kinship with the artist creating a drawing in that we both use the objectivity of our pencilings to take the next step into the future. Our needs for sensitivity are similar. As you can see, now we are talking about a third language: first the scientific; then the markets; now the artists. Not long ago, a New York Times article, entitled Forecasters Art in 1929 and Now, noted how the economists of that earlier day were unable to foresee not only the crash but also the ensuing depression. Some researchers, using modern techniques, recently went back to that era and demonstrated that even todays fancy computer-driven approaches would have failed as miserably. Their conclusion was that there was no way to anticipate such disasters. The scary truth, the author of the article wrote, is that the limits of macroeconomic models reflect inherent limits to economic knowledge. Imagine! An entire essay about a serious limitation on the ability to anticipate economic trouble, and not a sentence, not a word, not a phrase, about the economic forecasting tool that works the stock market. The market is smarter than you, I, and economists computers. 4 Snippets from How to Buy (An insiders guide to making money in the stock market (1982) Weve discussed when to buy, and how to buy. But the most important aspect of all is what to buy. Litany on this subject has already been running through this book: buy strength; dont guess at bottoms; if there isnt much to buy, dont buy; wait for the stock to prove itself; etc. Overall market action tells us when to buy, but the individual stock can also signal the proper timing. Since we are always looking for a betting edge, we want the stock itself, as compared to all other stocks, to tell us that now is the time to buy it. What are we looking for in a stock? Thats easy to answer, even if there are infinite variations. We are looking for success in holding, to begin with. A stock that has just made a new low is clearly not successful. A stock that manages to hold above its prior low on the next sell-off has accomplished something positive. Similarly, a stock that manages to rise above its previous rally peak has also achieved a success. A stock that has higher lows and higher peaks clearly is trending upward. Simply stated, that is the art of charting. Let the market tell you. Dont try to tell the market. Why should the market cooperate with your needs? Snippets from When to Sell, (Inside Strategies for Stock Market Profits (1977) Since, indeed, the stock market is nothing but a game, with players on both sides of each transaction, with a score in money-points, and with eventual winners and losers, it is often revealing to compare it to more familiar games. Take baseball: the manager who orders a sacrifice bunt whenever nobodys out and the tying run is on first base knows it wont work every time. The batter might pop it up, a fielder could pull off a brilliant play, or the runner might die on second anyhow. But he knows that the law of averages, developed over similar past situations, is on his side, and he can, based on his own experience and insight, refine the odds by considering other factors, such as the bunting ability of the batter, the speed of the base runner, the skill of the next batter, and so on. Strangely, the same fan who appreciates that the manager is playing percentage baseball is unable to translate that approach from baseball to the game he is playing the stock market. Instead of looking back over his own record of success and failure to see which technique worked and which didnt, or what frame of mind affected each decision or failure to decide, he tends, in the market, to repeat his errors time and again. Next time, he insists, after striking out again with the winning run on third, it will be different. Ever since the first corporate share was purchased, it has been a credo of American culture that the road to wealth is the patient accumulation of stocks in growing corporations. As the country expanded, steel, oil, mining, and railroad ventures paid off handsomely. For years, railroad shares were considered the 5 premier investment for those whod made their pile and wanted to keep it safe and sound. More than one will of the pre-Depression era specified in unbreakable terms that the heirs were to entrust the family fortune only to railroad shares. As it turned out, railroads were safer than buggy-whip or streetcar companies, but by the time the countrys massive industrial growth began to produce a comparable boom in the stock market, railroads werent the thing to be in. Industry products became the fashionable investment; railroads, especially as disaster stuck in the thirties, lost their respectability and became speculative. One generations gilt became the dross of the next. Given ample opportunity to rise during a bull market, the failure of a particular issue to move upward in gear with the averages can be warning enough in itself that something is wrong. To be sure, speculative flings in search of something that hasnt moved yet can sometimes sweep up a laggard issue or two, but by and large, the hope is that what did not happen yesterday and today will happen tomorrow, and as the bull surges on without that stock, the reality becomes progressively more urgent: a stock does not have to go down first to show that it is becoming weak. Merely not going up is, under most bullish circumstances, a sign of trouble brewing. The one thing we can guarantee is that none of it is easy. Just try to walk that fine line between not selling too soon and not procrastinating one day too long! Any time any one of us, from professional trader to odd-lotter, can boast of taking a profit, we have done something right. Luck is a mere bonus. What was right, simply put, was that a stock was bought cheap and sold dear. But dont let anyone claim that the two halves of the act are equally easy. Only someone who has never played the market game would believe that. Snippets from Justins market letters FI RE THE COMPUTER! (1984) Which technical indicator do you think is most out of favor nowadays? No, its not the overly arbitraged short interest ratio. Nor is it the moribund odd-lot statistics. And everybody, on the principle of a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, now knows about divergences. Contrary opinion still works best, with front page articles and magazine covers providing useful headlines to go contrary to. But what has gone the way of the aardvark is the ticker tape. The computer is just another tool. It is no more of a magical machine than the Ouija board or the crystal ball. It has, unfortunately, caused investors and traders and analysts to lose track of the virtues of using both sides of the brain the intuitive and the objective - instead, everyone has become lopsided. The art form of playing the market has been relegated to museums, and the computer has become the new emperor. The result has been the current markets aggravating behavior in which the averages made new highs yet no one was happy. If you step back from the daily fray, and let everyone else play their short-term games, youll do better. And if you find some little old guy in a back room with the blinds pulled down, the tape clattering, and his charts posted by hand, ask him how he feels about the market. ThePhilosophyof Tops(J uly31, 1987) Tops are not made in a day. Unlike bottoms, which often can abruptly materialize on a climactic panic, with many stocks making their lows at the same time (although still requiring ample subsequent base- building), tops form over a much longer period of time. Also unlike bottoms, which form in anticipation of discernible, albeit unbelieved, change, tops seem to come out of nowhere, indeed, out of a glowing good-news climate. Nevertheless, there are several repeatedly appearing essential ingredients to tops, the chief of which is, of course, how to fool the most number of people into confidently holding (and even buying) stocks as the bull market ends. The way this is done see the November 1972 upside breakout from a big head and shoulders consolidation is often almost by magic: Tops dont look like tops. 6 If you look at every top weve lived through, they each have certain ingredients internal market deterioration; rationalizations and lulling; using up buying power even though you used to know better; and waiting and waiting for the bell to go off, which proves in hindsight to be rather more of a little tinkle that you thought you heard but werent sure enough of to act upon. The one eternal aspect of every market top is that it occurs before were ready for it. Special Report onthePhilosophyof BottomsTheFuture BasedonthePast (J anuary11, 1988) ...it is necessary to understand the nature of bottoms. Lows in the averages are not bottoms; bottoms are not made on a blend of hope and good news; bottoms are formed by basing; basing forms over a period of time, and in the face of bad news, on pessimism, not optimism..Thus a soothing bear market rally is the spiritual sire of the second leg downbottoms are made when selling becomes exhausted. Special Report onBonds(August 31, 1988) Note that in the midst of the October (1987) crash, with the entire trading world in total disarray, bond prices came down to the support area of that breakout and held almost exactly where they were supposed to! For those who were able to keep their heads, it proved to be a nice neat fairly obvious buying opportunity If few are to be on board when the next important upward drive begins, the current market action becomes all the more intriguing. Pessimism abounds theres far more bearishness towards bonds than towards stocks. Similarly, for a longer-term target, one would measure the distance of the entire pullbackIf my math is right this is an equity guy speaking that would translate into a long-bond yield in the neighborhood of about 6%-6 1/2 % (from 9.85%). What else do you need to know? 7 FromJ ustin, inaletter toafriendwhoisafinancial reporter: My time at the Exchange in that role (Assistant Director of the Floor Department) was during the mid to late 60s ferment time, and I was a bit too long-haired for some senior executives. I went to the Exchange because I had three mouths to feed and my hobby of charting the stock market was all I knew that was employable. I went in with any and all the suspicions any leftist could have about that den of capitalism, and was astounded to find the degree of honesty and decency on the floor at that time. I have to emphasize at that time. These were men who, for the most part, had never gone to college, and some hadnt even finished high schoolso there was nothing high falutin about their ethics, nothing patrician about their background. But they traded on each others word, and made million dollar transactions on a hand shake, and never thought otherwise. Somefuntitlesof past Mamisletters: Damaged Goods on Sale What is the matter with Mary Jane? Were having rice pudding for dinner again. A.A. Milne 40 Points Down, 40 Points Up All in a Days Work Honey, I Shrunk My Helper or The Demise of the Technician Tulip Bulbs and the Tooth Fairy Flushing It Down the Toilet Dont Confuse Brains With a Bull Market (from a Fraser button) Stock: a family of languages, tribes, racethe barrel of a gunlifeless, dulla pun- ishment device, used often by the Pilgrimscooking brothrailroad rolling stock Lock, stock and barrelput stock in, confidencea theatre company, often traveling livestocka store or supplystock car racingStockholmstockingstock in tradestock pilestock yardstockadestock certificates, stock holders, and stock market! Is Complacency the Opium of the Stock Market? Is This Stock Market A Form of Three Card Monte? Leverage is the Markets Form of Infidelity The Wall St. Two-Step Put your little foot out the doorput your other foot back in Hello, Everybody, Hello, Hello, HelloWake Up! Theyre Going to Rally! (somewhat, sometime soon, and in some stocks) Stop Stabbing at that Snooze Button! Get up, get up, you sleepyhead. Theres a rally underway! Barrons, August 19, 1991. Dorothy Ahle, Illustrator 8 Wehavetoincludeachart of TheSentiment Cycle, page199, inTheNatureof Risk: ANotefromKateWelling... Most investors do not need an introduction to Kate Welling. She spent over two decades at Barrons as a featured writer, assistant to the editor (Alan Abelson) and managing editor, and produced virtually all of the magazine's signature "Q&A" interviews, including its annual Roundtable issues. Today, Kate publishes her own journal of research, analysis, opinion and insight, WellingonWallSt.singular, incisive, thought-provoking. www.wellingonwallst.com. "Justin Mamis ostensibly employed the tools and language of technical analysis to decipher the markets manifold moods over his long and illustrious Wall Street career. And that he did, with admirable clarity, without the hocus pocus oft resorted to by lesser practitioners, and always with a self-deprecating sense of humor. But what also can be said now, in retrospect, is that Justin, with his keen insights and gut instincts into what was driving investors not to mention his curmudgeonly contrary tendencies was actually one of the first, and certainly the most original, practitioners of whats now called behavioral analysis. The markets and investors have been immeasurably enriched by Justins embrace of the risks and opportunities inherent in a less-than-efficient market created by imperfectly rational investors." A cycle begins with stocks climbing a wall of worry, and ends when there is no worry anymore. Even after the rise tops out, investors continue to believe that they should buy the dips..Unwillingness to believe in that change marks the first phase down: Its just another buying opportunity. The second, realistic, phase down is the passage from bullish to bearish sentiment...Selling begins to make sense. It culminates with the third phase: investors, in disgust, dump right near the eventual low in the conviction that the bad news is never going to stop 9 ANotefromDonPreston Don Preston met Justin in 1984 while they were together at Cowen & Co. After Justin spent some time at Gordon Capital, they met up again at Hancock Financial/Tucker Anthony. Later, they left together to form the independent advisory firm, Noah Financial. Thirty years! For a young man like me, thats a long time to have a personal and professional relationship. For Justin, a less young man, maybe it looks like a blip. My reality is that I have had nearly half a lifetime of learning from a man of few (spoken) words but with a strong positive presence. His composure in times of stress taught me that not every adverse situation calls for panic. His trust in me has been enduring. His excellent sense of direction has repeatedly saved me from first exiting the Fidelity building through the wrong doorand then turning in the wrong direction. Indeed, I have followed his lead in many ways, and I am a better person for it. This attests to the privilege and joy it has been to know him. Now, Justin, its your turn to follow me and finally! retire. But stick around. I can use a good guru. Most of all, be well, Teacher, Leader, Friend. ANotefromHeleneMeisler Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column as a Real Money contributor for TheStreet.com. She met Justin in 1984 at Cowen & Co., rejoined him in 1992 at Gordon Capital, and then together they left for Hancock Institutional/Tucker Anthony. Not long after, she went to work for Cargill in Minneapolis where she managed equity money for three years. Then came a long stay in Singapore. Justin has described Helene as witty, cheerful, and upon occasion, accurately sharp-tongued. Its been about thirty years since I first met and began working with Justin. The first day of working together I was taught how to hand-post the John Magee stock charts. They are on semi-logarithmic scales so it took quite a while to get the hang of it. I was still posting away at 8:30 pm, definitely not pleased to be working so late. Keeping in mind these were the days before there was a personal computer on every desk, the next morning I said to Justin, "This is ridiculous! There must be a way to computerize this. In typical Justin fashion, he responded that there was not only a certain feeling you got from putting the pencil to the paper but from sharpening the pencils themselves. A little more than ten years later, when internet usage was spreading fast, I tried to give up hand- posting my charts; I couldnt. I found myself laughing out loud that in fact Justin was right: there is a certain feeling you get from putting that pencil to the paper each night. Thank you, Justin, for being my mentor and teaching me about the markets. As you always say, the market teaches us something new every day, even when its dull, just to keep us interested. 10 TO MOTHER MARKET whose rewards when we are right, stern responses when we are careless, and fickle changes of direction, have kept daily life fascinating and challenging. Inside cover of When to Sell, 3rd edition, 1999 Noah Financial Justin Mamis.. mamismail@aol.com Michele Bernstein phone: 862-216-0066.mbernstein@gmail.com Justins business card Painting done by our Swiss son-in-law, Jrg Obrist, in late 1987 . From our bulletin board to yours...