SIXTH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM NIKOLA TESLA

October 18 20, 2006, Belgrade, SASA, Serbia

Prediction of Annual Electricity Production of
Perspective Small Wind-Plant in the Region of
Deliblatska Peara
Nikola Rajakovi
1
, eljko urii
1
, Momilo Bubnjevi
2
, Duan Mikii
1

Abstract In this paper the annual electricity production of
perspective small wind-plant of installed power 30.85MW at
site ibuk at the periphery of Deliblatska Pearahas been
estimated. Standard three-hour meteorological measurements of
wind speed at meteorological stations Vrac and Banatski
Karlovac have been used, as well as measurements at custom
40m anemometer mast that was installed at site Dolovo. For the
prediction of the installed power annual usage factor for a wind-
plant at site ibuk, available data have been processed in
software package WAsP. The vectorial topographic map of the
wider target region has been formed, with the detailed analysis of
orography, obstacles and terrain roughness. Through
comparative analysis, the paper shows to which extent standard
meteorological data can be used for the prediction of some wind-
plants electricity production, as the most relevant factor for the
project cost-effectiveness.
Keywords Wind-plant, Elctricity production, Capacity
factor, Deliblatska Peara
I. INTRODUCTION

Northeastern part of Serbia is characterized by a strong
southeastern wind. This wind with descending component is
stronger than ascending wind that arises simultaneously. The
area affected by this local wind (Koava) is surrounded by
mountains from the south and east, and open towards north
and west. Koava mostly occurs during the colder period of
the year.
Available measured data have shown that Vojvodina
represents the region of special interest for wind applications.
Custom wind measurements in this region are of particular
importance because lowland terrain provides very reliable
space extrapolation of measurements in a wide radius around
the measurement mast (20 to 30km).

-----------
1
Nikola Rajakovi, eljko urii, Duan Mikii

are with the
Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Bulevar kralja Aleksandra 73,
11000 Belgrade, Serbia, E-mail: rajakovic@etf.bg.ac.yu;
djurisic@etf.bg.ac.yu; mikicic@etf.bg.ac.yu
2
Momcilo Bubnjevic is with the ACIES Engineering, Belgrade,
Serbia, E-mail: bubanj@Eunet.yu
Lowland terrain and relatively well developed distribution
network in Vojvodina are a precondition for low costs of
connecting perspective wind-plants to electric system. River
Danube and road infrastructure allow cheap transport of wind-
generators from countries of European Union and low
erection costs, which have significant impact on the economy
of wind-generators [1], [2]. Vojvodina also has relatively low
keraunic level, which is also a relevant factor in selecting
location for a wind-plant. These are the essential reasons for
favouring Vojvodina as a perspective region for wind-plant
construction.
Based on available custom measurements conducted on
anemometer mast of 40m height and using WAsP, a relatively
good wind potential has been determined at a higher number
of micro locations in wider target region Deliblatska Peara.
Wind is characterized by relatively stable streaming with
occasional occurrence of squalls that rarely exceed 25m/s.
As a specific example, annual capacity factor of perspective
wind-plant at site ibuk will be analysed. Figure 1 presents
satellite snapshot of wider region around target location.

Fig. 1. Satellite snapshot of wider region around
target site ibuk

The objective of the analysis was the construction of
wind-plants with three turbines Vestas V-52, each of 850 kW
nominal power, so wind-plant installed power would be 2550
kW. Wind turbines would be put on masts at 55m altitudes.
Deliblatska
Peara
Target site
In order to evaluate cost-effectiveness of perspective
wind-plant, it is necessary to determine, as reliably as
possible, its installed power usage factor that dominantly
affects the price of electric energy produced by wind-plant.
This factor is very sensitive to errors in wind speed
estimation, as wind power depends on the third power of wind
speed [3]. Due to this fact, it is necessary to dispose of
average ten-minute measurements in order to give the best
possible estimation of wind speed integration over time, i.e.
specific annual available wind energy. Considering that these
measurements are performed during a relatively short time
period, mostly a year, it is necessary to perform climatologic
correction of measurements in order to determine the average
year. In this respect, it is also necessary to include
meteorological measurements in the analysis. The space and
wind speed height profile extrapolation require usage of
complex terrain models that involve orography, roughness,
obstacles and river paths. This analysis uses WAsP, as
professional software for this kind of applications. The
analysis has been conducted based on real wind speed
measurements and real terrain conditions for a perspective
small plant with real wind-generator characteristics.


II. PREDICTION OF WIND-PLANT CAPACITY FACTOR
USING STANDARD METEOROLOGICAL DATA

The meteorological network in Serbia provides continuous
wind recording. Wind speed measurements are conducted at
standard height of 10m. Anemometers are generally of older
types with tape recording (anemographs), thereby making
hourly average wind speed data mostly unavailable. In last
two years, modern digital equipment with remote
measurement readings of wind parameters has been installed
at several measurement stations in Serbia. Data on three-hour
measurements of wind speed and direction are available in
digital form. Determining the extent to which this data can be
used in wind-plant planning is of particular interest.
For the analysis of perspective wind-plant at site ibuk,
data of wind measurements in hydrometeorology stations
Banatski Karlovac and Vrac have been used in this paper.
Standard data on three-hour wind speeds for the period from
1999 to 2006 were collected. Data were processed and
prepared for usage in software package WAsP. Also,
measurement stations were visited and their exact locations
were determined with GPS receiver, as well as position and
character of obstacles in their wider surroundings. A unique
vectorial topographic map of wider region has been formed,
with precisely entered terrain roughness data and river paths.
Figure 2 depicts the used vectorial map with the following
locations indicated on it: hydrometeorologic station Vrac (1),
hydrometeorologic station Banatski Karlovac (2), 40m wind
mast (3) and turbine sites (wind turbine symbol). In Table I
the results of WAsP estimation of overall and individual
expected annual electric energy production (AEP) for the
analysed wind-plant, as well as wind parameters calculated for
selected location, have been showed. Calculations were made
using seven-year data on wind speed and direction
measurements at measurement station Vrac.

Fig. 2 Vectorial topographic map of the analysed region

TABLE I
ESTIMATED WIND PARAMETERS AND ANNUL PRODUCTION OF WIND
PLANT AT SITE IBUK, OBTAINED FROM SEVEN-YEAR CLIMATOLOGIC
WIND MEASUREMENTS AT MEASUEMENT STATION VRAC

Ia) Summary results

Ib) Site results

Ic) Site wind characteristics

TABLE II
ESTIMATED WIND PARAMETERS AND ANNUL PRODUCTION OF WIND
PLANT AT SITE IBUK, OBTAINED FROM SEVEN-YEAR CLIMATOLOGIC
WIND MEASUREMENTS AT MEASUEMENT STATION BANATSKI
KARLOVAC

IIa) Summary results

IIb) Site results

IIc) Site wind characteristics

1
2
3
Quantities in Table Ic have the following meaning: U
estimated average annual wind speed, E- average specific
wind power, A and k corresponding parameters of Weibulls
distribution density of wind speed probabilities. All
parameters relate to the height at which wind-turbine is
installed (55m).
Table II shows the results of calculation using data on three-
hour wind speed measurements, for the same time period as in
previous analysis, obtained at station Banatski Karlovac.
Analysing acquired results, a conclusion can be made that
there is a big difference in calculated expected annual
production of analysed wind-plant when measurements from
Vrac and measurements from Banatski Karlovac are used.
According to data from hydrometeorologic station Vrac,
expected power usage factor of the wind-plant at annual level
is:
% 75 , 29 100
85 , 0 3 8760
6643
100
8760
1
1
=

=

=
n
P
AEP Net

According to data from hydrometeorologic station at
Banatski Karlovac, expected capacity usage factor is:

% 33 , 18 100
85 , 0 3 8760
4093
100
8760
2
2
=

=

=
n
P
AEP Net

According to data of wind parameters measurements at
hydrometeorologic station Vrac, ibuk site is very
promising, but considering data from Banatski Karlovac, the
site is below average. This yields a conclusion that the
prediction of electricity production based on standard three-
hour meteorological data on wind speed measurements is very
unreliable and can not be used even for general estimates.
Large deviations are present because standard three-hour wind
speed measurements represent samples that are not dense
enough to yield an estimation of integral energy produced by
wind-generator.
III. PREDICTION OF WIND-PLANT CAPACITY
FACTOR BASED ON MEASUREMENTS OF WIND
PARAMETERS AT CUSTOM MEASUREMENTS MAST
The summary of previous analysis is that for planning a
wind-plant construction it is necessary to conduct custom
wind speed measurements at selected site and, if possible, at
an altitude that corresponds to the wind-turbine axle. In the
given case, wind speed measurements used are from 40m
anemometer mast installed at site Dolovo, that is located at
3.5km distance from analysed site ibuk.
Table III shows the results of WAsP calculation of the
expected annual production for analysed wind-plant, based on
measurements at 40m anemometer mast. The calculation uses
average ten-minute measurements of wind speed and
direction, at 40m altitude, during one year period. Space
extrapolation has been performed using the same vectorial
topographic map as in previous analyses.
Based on custom speed measurements on 40m anemometer
mast, the estimated net annual production of wind-plant is
Net AEP
3
=4711MWh. The capacity usage factor that
corresponds to this production is:
% 09 , 21 100
85 , 0 3 8760
4711
100
8760
3
3
=

=

=
n
P
AEP Net

TABLE III
ESTIMATED WIND PARAMETERS AND ANNUL PRODUCTION OF WIND
PLANT AT SITE IBUK, OBTAINED FROM MEASUREMENTS OF WIND
PARAMETERS ON 40M ANEMOMETER MAST AT SITE DOLOVO
IIIa) Summary results


IIIb) Site results


IIIc) Site wind characteristics


The obtained capacity usage factor, regarding selected
wind-generators of relatively small power and high cut-in
wind speed of 4 m/s, shows that there is a significant
technically usable wind potential at selected location that
allows construction of even small wind-plants which could be
connected to the existing medium-voltage 20kV network. If
more powerful generators would be installed at selected site,
capacity factor would be considerably higher. For instance,
this factor would be about 30% for wind-generators E-82 of 2
MW, [4]. The explanation comes from the fact that bigger
wind-generators are placed on higher masts, and additionally,
cut-in wind speed for E-82 wind-generator is 2.5 m/s, so they
take advantage of even very weak winds.

A. Climatologic Correction
Analysis of wind-plant productivity based on custom
measurements can be taken as very reliable. However, it is
based only on one-year measurements and such a year can be
more or less windy than the average year for the designed
lifetime of wind-plant (20-25 years). Regarding produced
electric energy, annual variations can reach 30%, so it is
necessary to put weighting factors on available measurements
in order to have the average results. To obtain average annual
production, the cost-benefit analysis for some wind-plant
should be performed. It is necessary to have the
measurements for several years period (like in determining the
flow for hydro-plants design). Such custom wind
measurements (unlike hydrologic flow measurements) usually
do not exist, so the only available are standard
hydrometeorologic measurements.
In this paper a climatologic correction for estimated
production of the analysed wind-plant will be performed using
seven-year data on wind speed measurements at measurement
stations Vrac and Banatski Karlovac. Figure 3 shows
comparative time diagrams of wind speed variations during
December 2005, obtained according to three-hour data from
hydrometeorologic stations and average three-hour wind
speed measurements at measurement mast, at 20m altitude.

Fig. 3. Comparative diagrams of wind speed variations
measured at meteorological stations and at anemometer mast

In comparative analysis in Figure 3, a relatively good
matching of measurements can be noticed, even though the
samples of three-hour measurements in hydrometeorologic
stations are compared to average three-hour wind speeds
measured at custom measurement mast. Analysis in Figure 7
shows that measurements pertain to the same climatologic
region. The interesting point is that in the same time interval
(December 12th/13th) measuring instruments froze at all three
measurement sites.
Table IV shows estimated electricity production in the
analysed wind-plant, based on available data on wind-speed
measurements at measurement stations, that correspond to 1
year measurement period at site Dolovo, and based on data for
seven years period (1999-2006). The objective of this
comparative analysis is to evaluate how much wind potential
in the year during which custom measurement had been
conducted deviates from seven-year average.
Analysis in Table IV shows that wind potential in one year
period during which measurements had been performed at site
Dolovo was below seven years average, and this is indicated
by measurement data from both analysed measurement
stations.
The interesting point is that both measurement stations
indicate the same difference in expected annual electric
energy production when seven-year and one-year
measurements are used, and this difference is about
AEP=500MWh/year. If this correction is accepted in its
absolute value, the expected annual production of analysed
wind-plant would be about 5.200GWh, so the corresponding
average annual capacity usage factor would be:
% 33 , 23 100
85 , 0 3 8760
500 4711
100
8760
3
3
=

+
=

+
=
n
avr
P
AEP AEP Net

The obtained capacity usage factor indicates the significant
usable wind potential in the region Juni Banat, where even
considerably better micro locations for perspective
construction of wind-plants can be identified, by detailed
analysis based on available measurements.
TABLE IV
ESTIMATED ANNUAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN A WIND-PLANT AT
SITE IBUK, BASED ON ONE-YEAR AND SEVEN-YEAR MEASUREMENTS OF
WIND SPEED AT MEASUREMENT STATIONS AND USING MEASUREMENT MAST

IV. CONCLUSION

In this paper the annual capacity usage factor for a
perspective wind-plant of installed power 3850 kWh at site
ibuk at the periphery of Deliblatska Peara has been
estimated. Using professional software package WAsP,
comparative analysis of perspective wind-plant expected
production has been performed, based on long-time wind
speed measurements at measurement stations Vrac and
Banatski Karlovac, as well as on specific measurements at
40m measurement mast at site Dolovo. Obtained results
indicate that wind-plant planning can not be done just based
on meteorological measurements and that it is necessary to
conduct specific measurements.
Based on specific one-year measurements at 40m
anemometer mast with climatologic correction and seven-year
data from measurement stations Vrac and Banatski Karlovac,
average annual capacity usage factor of the analysed wind-
plant has been evaluated to the value of 23.33%.
Estimated capacity usage factors indicate significant usable
wind potential in the region Juni Banat, where according to
available measurements even significantly better micro
locations can be identified for perspective construction of
wind-plants in Serbia. In addition to wind potential for the
analysed region, low costs of transport, connection to network
and maintenance should be expected, due to an accessible
terrain with built-up road infrastructure and electric network.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This work was supported by European Commission,
Directorate General on Research and Technology
Development and International Co-operation Activities
(INCO) under contract no FP6-509161 (RISE Project )

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th
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