Chapter 4: Probability 1

Chapter 4
Probability
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The main objective of Chapter 4 is to help you understand the basic principles of
probability, specifically enabling you to
1. Comprehend the different ways of assigning probability.
. !nderstand and apply marginal, union, joint, and conditional probabilities.
". #elect the appropriate law of probability to use in solving problems.
4. #olve problems using the laws of probability, including the law of addition, the
law of multiplication , and the law of conditional probability.
$. %evise probabilities using &ayes' rule.
CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY
#tudents can be motivated to study probability by reali(ing that the field of
probability has some stand)alone application in their lives in such applied areas human
resource analysis, actuarial science, and gaming. *n addition, students should understand
that much of the rest of the course is based on probabilities even though they will not be
directly applying many of these formulas in other chapters.
This chapter is frustrating for the learner because probability problems can be
approached by using several different techni+ues. ,hereas, in many chapters of this te-t,
students will approach problems by using one standard techni+ue, in chapter 4, different
students will often use different approaches to the same problem. The te-t attempts to
emphasi(e this point and underscore it by presenting several different ways to solve
probability problems. The probability rules and laws presented in the chapter can
virtually always be used in solving probability problems. .owever, it is sometimes easier
to construct a probability matri- or a tree diagram or use the sample space to solve the
problem. *f the student is aware that what they have at their hands is an array of tools or
techni+ues, they will be less overwhelmed in approaching a probability problem. /n
Chapter 4: Probability
attempt has been made to differentiate the several types of probabilities so that students
can sort out the various types of problems.
*n teaching students how to construct a probability matri-, emphasi(e that it is
usually best to place only one variable along each of the two dimensions of the matri-.
0That is place 1astercard with yes2no on one a-is and 3isa with yes2no on the other
instead of trying to place 1astercard and 3isa along the same a-is4.

This particular chapter is very amenable to the use of visual aids. #tudents enjoy
rolling dice, tossing coins, and drawing cards as a part of the class e-perience.
5f all the chapters in the boo6, it is most imperative that students wor6 a lot of
problems in this chapter. Probability problems are so varied and individuali(ed that a
significant portion of the learning comes in the doing. 7-perience is an important factor
in wor6ing probability problems.
#ection 4.8 on &ayes9 theorem can be s6ipped in a one)semester course without
losing any continuity. This section is a prere+uisite to the chapter 18 presentation of
:revising probabilities in light of sample information 0section 18.44.
CHAPTER OUTLINE
4.1 *ntroduction to Probability
4. 1ethods of /ssigning Probabilities
Classical 1ethod of /ssigning Probabilities
%elative ;re+uency of 5ccurrence
#ubjective Probability
4." #tructure of Probability
7-periment
7vent
7lementary 7vents
#ample #pace
!nions and *ntersections
1utually 7-clusive 7vents
*ndependent 7vents
Collectively 7-haustive 7vents
Complimentary 7vents
Counting the Possibilities
The mn Counting %ule
#ampling from a Population with %eplacement
Combinations: #ampling from a Population ,ithout %eplacement
4.4 1arginal, !nion, <oint, and Conditional Probabilities
Chapter 4: Probability "
4.$ /ddition =aws
Probability 1atrices
Complement of a !nion
#pecial =aw of /ddition
4.> 1ultiplication =aws
?eneral =aw of 1ultiplication
#pecial =aw of 1ultiplication
4.@ Conditional Probability
*ndependent 7vents
4.8 %evision of Probabilities: &ayes' %ule
EY TER!S
/ Priori *ntersection
&ayes' %ule <oint Probability
Classical 1ethod of /ssigning Probabilities 1arginal Probability
Collectively 7-haustive 7vents mn Counting %ule
Combinations 1utually 7-clusive 7vents
Complement of a !nion Probability 1atri-
Complementary 7vents %elative ;re+uency of 5ccurrence
Conditional Probability #ample #pace
7lementary 7vents #et Aotation
7vent #ubjective Probability
7-periment !nion
*ndependent 7vents !nion Probability
SOLUTIONS TO PROBLE!S IN CHAPTER 4
4.1 7numeration of the si- parts: B
1
, B

, B
"
, /
4
, /
$
, /
>
B C Befective part
/ C /cceptable part
#ample #pace:
B
1
B

, B

B
"
, B" /$
B
1
B
"
, B

/
4
, B
"
/
>
B
1
/
4
, B

/
$
, /
4
/
$
B
1
/
$
, B

/
>
, /
4
/
>
Chapter 4: Probability 4
B
1
/
>
, B
"
/
4
, /
$
/
>
There are 1$ members of the sample space
The probability of selecting e-actly one defect out of
two is:
D21$ C "#$
4. E C F1, ", $, @, 8, DG, H C F, 4, @, DG
and I C F1, , ", 4, @,G
a4 E I C %&' (' )' 4' *' +' ,' -.
b4 E H C %+' -.
c4 E I C %&' )' +.
d4 E H I C %&' (' )' 4' *' +' ,' -.
e4 E H I C %+.
f4 0E H4 I C F1, , ", 4, $, @, 8, DG F1, , ", 4, @G C %&' (' )' 4' +.
g4 0H I4 0E H4 C F, 4, @G F@, DG C %(' 4' +' -.
h4 E or H C E H C %&' (' )' 4' *' +' ,' -.
i4 H and I C H I C %(' 4' +.
4." *f / C F, >, 1, 4G and the population is the positive even numbers through "J,

/9 C %4' ,' &$' &4' &#' &,' ($' ((' (#' (,' )$.

4.4 >0440"40"4 C (&#
4.$ 7numeration of the si- parts: B
1
, B

, /
1
, /

, /
"
, /
4
B C Befective part
/ C /cceptable part
#ample #pace:
B
1
B

/
1
, B
1
B

, B
1
B

/
"
,
B
1
B

/
4
, B
1
/
1
/

, B
1
/
1
/
"
,
B
1
/
1
/
4
, B
1
/

/
"
, B
1
/

/
4
,
B
1
/
"
/
4
, B

/
1
/

, B

/
1
/
"
,
B

/
1
/
4
, B

/
"
, B

/
4
,
B

/
"
/
4
, /
1
/

/
"
, /
1
/

/
4
,
/
1
/
"
/
4
, /

/
"
/
4
Combinations are used to counting the sample space because sampling is done
without replacement.
Chapter 4: Probability $
>C" C
K " K "
K >
C J
Probability that one of three is defective is:

12J C "2$ "#$

There are J members of the sample space and 1 of them have 1 defective part.
4.> 1J
@
C 1J,JJJ,JJJ different numbers
4.@ JC> C
K 14 K >
K J
C ),'+#$
*t is assumed here that > different 0without replacement4 employees are to be
selected.
4.8 P0/4 C .1J, P0&4 C .1, P0C4 C .1
P0/ C4 C .J$ P0& C4 C .J"

a4 P0/ C4 C P0/4 L P0C4 ) P0/ C4 C .1J L .1 ) .J$ C "(#

b4 P0& C4 C P0&4 L P0C4 ) P0& C4 C .1 L .1 ) .J" C ")$

c4 *f /, & mutually e-clusive, P0/ &4 C P0/4 L P0&4 C .1J L .1 C "((
4.D

B 7 ;
/ $ 8 1 $
& 1J > 4 J
C 8 $ 1$
" 1> 1 >J
a4 P0/ B4 C P0/4 L P0B4 ) P0/ B4 C $2>J L "2>J ) $2>J C 4"2>J C "
+&#+
b4 P07 &4 C P074 L P0&4 ) P07 &4 C 1>2>J L J2>J ) >2>J C "J2>J C "*$$$

c4 P0B 74 C P0B4 L P074 C "2>J L 1>2>J C "D2>J C "#*$$
Chapter 4: Probability >
d4 P0C ;4 C P0C4 L P0;4 ) P0C ;4 C 1$2>J L 12>J ) $2>J C "12>J C "*&#+
4.1J
7 ;
/ .1J .J" .1"
& .J4 .1 .1>
C .@ .J> .""
B ."1 .J@ ."8
.@ .8 1.JJ

a4 P0/ ;4 C P0/4 L P0;4 ) P0/ ;4 C .1" L .8 ) .J" C "),
b4 P07 &4 C P074 L P0&4 ) P07 &4 C .@ L .1> ) .J4 C ",4
c4 P0& C4 C P0&4 L P0C4 C.1> L ."" C "4-
d4 P07 ;4 C P074 L P0;4 C .@ L .8 C &"$$$



4.11 / C event ) flown in an airplane at least once
T C event ) ridden in a train at least once

P0/4 C .4@ P0T4 C .8

P 0ridden either a train or an airplane4 C
P0/ T4 C P0/4 L P0T4 ) P0/ T4 C .4@ L .8 ) P0/ T4

Cannot solve this problem without 6nowing the probability of the intersection.
,e need to 6now the probability of the intersection of / and T, the proportion
who have ridden both.

4.1 P0=4 C .@$ P014 C .@8 P01 =4 C .>1

a4 P01 =4 C P014 L P0=4 ) P01 =4 C .@8 L .@$ ) .>1 C "-(
b4 P01 =4 but not both C P01 =4 ) P01 =4 C .D ) .>1 C ")&
c4 P0A1 A=4 C 1 ) P01 =4 C 1 ) .D C "$,
4.1" =et C C have cable T3
=et T C have or more T3 sets
P0C4 C .>@, P0T4 C .@4, P0C T4 C .$$
a4 P0C T4 C P0C4 L P0T4 ) P0C T4 C .>@ L .@4 ) .$$ C ",#
Chapter 4: Probability @
b4 P0C T but not both4 C P0C T4 ) P0C T4 C .8> ) .$$ C ")&
c4 P0AC AT4 C 1 ) P0C T4 C 1 ) .8> C "&4
d4 The special law of addition does not apply because P0C T4 is not .JJJJ.
Possession of cable T3 and or more T3 sets are not mutually e-clusive.
4.14 =et T C review transcript
; C consider faculty references
P0T4 C .$4 P0;4 C .44 P0T ;4 C ."$
a4 P0; T4 C P0;4 L P0T4 ) P0; T4 C .44 L .$4 ) ."$ C "#)
b4 P0; T4 ) P0; T4 C .>" ) ."$ C "(,
c4 1 ) P0; T4 C 1 ) .>" C ")+


d4

H A
H ."$ .1D .$4
A .JD ."@ .4>
.44 .$> 1.JJ
4.1$
C B 7 ;
/ $ 11 1> 8 4J
& " $ @ 1@
@ 14 1 1$ $@

a4 P0/ 74 C 1>2$@ C "(,$+
b4 P0B &4 C "2$@ C "$*(#
c4 P0B 74 C "$$$$
d4 P0/ &4 C "$$$$

4.1>
B 7 ;
/ .1 .1" .J8 .""
& .18 .JD .J4 ."1
C .J> .4 .J> .">
Chapter 4: Probability 8
."> .4> .18 1.JJ

a4 P07 &4 C "$-
b4 P0C ;4 C "$#
c4 P07 B4 C "$$


4.1@ =et B C Befective part
a4 0without replacement4
P0B
1
B

4 C P0B
1
4 P0B

B
1
4 C
4$J
"J
4D
$
$J
>
=
C "$&((
b4 0with replacement4
P0B
1
B

4 C P0B
1
4 P0B

4 C
$JJ
">
$J
>
$J
>
=
C "$&44
4.18 =et ! C !rban
* C care for *ll relatives
a4 P0! *4 C P0!4 P0* !4
P0!4 C .@8 P0*4 C .1$ P0*!4 C .11
P0! *4 C 0.@840.114 C "$,*,
b4 P0! A*4 C P0!4 P0A*!4 but P0*!4 C .11
#o, P0A*!4 C 1 ) .11 C .8D and P0! A*4 C
P0!4 P0A*!4 C 0.@840.8D4 C "#-4(
c4
!
Hes Ao
*
Hes .1$
Ao .8$
.@8 .


The answer to a4 is found in the H7#)H7# cell. To compute this cell, ta6e 11M
Chapter 4: Probability D
or .11 of the total 0.@84 people in urban areas. 0.1140.@84 C .J8$8 which belongs in
the :H7#)H7#N cell. The answer to b4 is found in the Hes for ! and no for * cell.
*t can be determined by ta6ing the marginal, .@8, less the answer for a4, .J8$8.
d. P0A! *4 is found in the no for ! column and the yes for * row 01
st
row and

nd
column4. Ta6e the marginal, .1$, minus the yes)yes cell, .J8$8, to get
"$#4(.
4.1D =et # C stoc6holder
=et C C college
P0#4 C .4" P0C4 C ."@ P0C#4 C .@$
a4 P0A#4 C 1 ) .4" C "*+
b4 P0# C4 C P0#4 P0C#4 C 0.4"40.@$4 C ")((*
c4 P0# C4 C P0#4 L P0C4 ) P0# C4 C .4" L ."@ ) ."$ C "4++*
d4 P0A# AC4 C 1 ) P0# C4 C 1 ) .4@@$ C "*((*
e4 P0A# AC4 C P0A#4 L P0AC4 ) P0A# AC4 C .$@ L .>" ) .$$ C "#++*
f4 P0C A#4 C P0C4 ) P0C #4 C ."@ ) ."$ C "$4+*
4.J =et ; C fa- machine
=et P C personal computer
?iven: P0;4 C .1J P0P4 C .$ P0P;4 C .D1
a4 P0; P4 C P0;4 P0P;4 C 0.1J40.D14 C "$-&
b4 P0; P4 C P0;4 L P0P4 ) P0; P4 C .1J L .$ ) .JD1 C "*(-
c4 P0; AP4 C P0;4 P0AP;4
#ince P0P;4 C .D1, P0AP;4C 1 ) P0P;4 C 1 ) .D1 C .JD
P0; AP4 C 0.1J40.JD4 C "$$-
d4 P0A; AP4 C 1 ) P0; P4 C 1 ) .$D C "4+&
e4 P0A; P4 C P0P4 ) P0; P4 C .$ ) .JD1 C "4(-
P AP
; .JD1 .JJD .1J
A; .4D .4@1 .DJ
.$J .48J 1.JJ
4.1
Chapter 4: Probability 1J
=et # C safety
=et / C age
P0#4 C ."J P0/4 C ."D P0/#4 C .8@
a4 P0# A/4 C P0#4 P0A/#4
but P0A/#4 C 1 ) P0/#4 C 1 ) .8@ C .1"
P0# A/4 C 0."J40.1"4 C "$)-
b4 P0A# A/4 C 1 ) P0# /4 C 1 ) OP0#4 L P0/4 ) P0# /4P
but P0# /4 C P0#4 P0/#4 C 0."J40.8@4 C .>1
P0A# A/4 C 1 ) 0."J L ."D ) .>14 C "*+&
c4 P0A# /4 C P0A#4 ) P0A# A/4
but P0A#4 C 1 ) P0#4 C 1 ) ."J C .@J
P0A# /4 C .@J ) $@1 C "&(-
4. =et C C ceiling fans
=et 5 C outdoor grill
P0C4 C .>J P054 C .D P0C 54 C .1"
a4 P0C 54C P0C4 L P054 ) P0C 54 C .>J L .D ) .1" C "+#
b4 P0AC A54 C 1 ) P0C 54C 1 ) .@> C "(4
c4 P0AC 54 C P054 ) P0C 54 C .D ) .1" C "&#
d4 P0C A54 C P0C4 ) P0C 54 C .>J ) .1" C "4+
4."
7 ; ?
/ 1$ 1 8 "$
& 11 1@ 1D 4@
C 1 " @ 8J
B 18 1" 1 4"
>$ @4 >> J$

a4 P0?/4 C 82"$ C "((,#

Chapter 4: Probability 11
b4 P0&;4 C 1@2@4 C "((-+

c4 P0C74 C 12>$ C ")()&
d4 P07?4 C "$$$$
4.4
C B
/ ."> .44 .8J
& .11 .JD .J
.4@ .$" 1.JJ

a4 P0C/4 C .">2.8J C "4*$$

b4 P0&B4 C .JD2.$" C "&#-,

c4 P0/&4 C "$$$$
4.$
Calculator
Hes Ao
Computer
Hes 4> " 4D
Ao 11 1$ >
$@ 18 @$
#elect a category from each variable and test
P03
1
3

4 C P03
1
4.
;or e-ample, P0Hes ComputerHes Calculator4 C P0Hes Computer4Q
@$
4D
$@
4>
=
Q
.8J@J .>$""

Variable o/ Co0p1ter 2ot i23epe23e2t o/ Variable o/ Cal41lator"

Chapter 4: Probability 1
4.>
=et C C construction
=et # C #outh /tlantic
8","84 total failures
1J,8>@ failures in construction
8,J1J failures in #outh /tlantic
1,$8 failures in construction and #outh /tlantic
a4 P0#4 C 8,J1J28","84 C "$-#$#
b4 P0C #4 C P0C4 L P0#4 ) P0C #4 C
1J,8>@28","84 L 8,J1J28","84 ) 1,$828","84 C 1@,>1D28","84 C "(&&)
c4 P0C #4 C
"84 , 8"
8J1J
"84 , 8"
1$8
4 0
4 0
=

S P
S C P
C "&*+$*
d4 P0# C4 C
"84 , 8"
8>@ , 1J
"84 , 8"
1$8
4 0
4 0
=

C P
S C P
C "&&*+#
e4 P0A#AC4 C
4 0
4 0 1
4 0
4 0
NC P
S C P
NC P
NC NS P
=

but AC C 8","84 ) 1J,8>@ C @,$1@

and P0AC4 C @,$1@28","84 C .8>D>@$
Therefore, P0A#AC4 C 01 ) .11"420.8>D>@$4 C "-$#-
f4 P0A# C4 C
4 0
4 0 4 0
4 0
4 0
C P
S C P C P
C P
C NS P
=

but P0C4 C 1J,8>@28","84 C .1"J"

P0C #4 C 1,$828","84 C .J1$1
Therefore, P0A#C4 C 0.1"J" ) .J1$142.1"J" C ",,4(
4.@ =et 7 C 7conomy
=et R C Rualified
Chapter 4: Probability 1"
P074 C .4> P0R4 C ."@ P07 R4 C .1$
a4 P07R4 C P07 R42P0R4 C .1$2."@ C "4$*4
b4 P0R74 C P07 R42P074 C .1$2.4> C ")(#&
c4 P0RA74 C P0R A742P0A74
but P0R A74 C P0R4 ) P0R 74 C ."@ ) .1$ C .
P0A74 C 1 ) P074 C 1 ) .4> C .$4
P0RA74 C .2.$4 C "4$+4
d4 P0A7 AR4 C 1 ) P07 R4 C 1 ) OP074 L P0R4 ) P07 R4P
C 1 ) O.4> L ."@ L .1$P C 1 ) 0.>84 C ")(
4.8
=et / C airline tic6ets
=et T C transacting loans
P0/4 C .4@ P0T/4 C .81
a4 P0/ T4 C P0/4 P0T/4 C 0.4@40.814 C "),$+
b4 P0AT/4 C 1 ) P0T/4 C 1 ) .81 C "&-
c4 P0AT /4 C P0/4 ) P0/ T4 C .4@ ) ."8J@ C "$,-)
4.D =et . C hardware
=et # C software
P0.4 C ."@ P0#4 C .$4 P0#.4 C .D@
a4 P0A#.4 C 1 ) P0#.4 C 1 ) .D@ C "$)
b4 P0#A.4 C P0# A.42P0A.4
but P0. #4 C P0.4 P0#.4 C 0."@40.D@4 C ."$8D
so P0A. #4 C P0#4 ) P0. #4 C .$4 ) ."$8D C .1811
P0A.4 C 1 ) P0.4 C 1 ) ."@ C .>"
P0#A.4 C 0.1811420.>"4 C "(,+*
c4 P0A.#4 C P0A. #42P0#4 C .181122$4 C "))*4
Chapter 4: Probability 14
d4 P0A.A#4 C P0A. A#42P0A#4
but P0A. A#4 C P0A.4 ) P0A. #4 C .>" ) .1811 C .448D
and P0A#4 C 1 ) P0#4 C 1 ) .$4 C .4>
P0A.A#4 C .448D2.4> C "-+*-
4."J =et / C product produced on 1achine /
& C product produces on 1achine &
C C product produced on 1achine C
B C defective product
P0/4 C .1J P0&4 C .4J P0C4 C .$J
P0B/4 C .J$ P0B&4 C .1 P0BC4 C .J8
7vent Prior Conditional <oint %evised

P07
i
4

P0B7
i
4
P0B 7
i
4
/ .1J .J$ .JJ$ .JJ$2.JD"C"$*),
& .4J .1 .J48 .J482.JD"C"*&#&
C .$J .J8 .J4J .J4J2.JD"C"4)$&
P0B4C.JD"
%evise: P0/B4 C .JJ$2.JD" 5 "$*),

P0&B4 C .J482.JD" C "*&#&

P0CB4 C .J4J2.JD" C "4)$&

4."1 =et / C /le- fills the order
& C /licia fills the order
C C <uan fills the order
* C order filled incorrectly
S C order filled correctly
P0/4 C ."J P0&4 C .4$ P0C4 C .$
P0*/4 C .J P0*&4 C .1P0*C4 C .J$
P0S/4 C .8J P0S&4 C .88 P0SC4 C .D$
a4 P0&4 C .4$
b4 P0SC4 C 1 ) P0*C4 C 1 ) .J$ C .D$
c4
Chapter 4: Probability 1$
7vent Prior Conditional <oint %evised

P07
i
4

P0*7
i
4
P0* 7
i
4

P07
i
*4
/ ."J .J .J>JJ .J>JJ2.1>$C"4+4)
& .4$ .1 .J$4J .J$4J2.1>$C"4(#-
C .$ .J$ .J1$ .J1$2.1>$C"$-,,
P0*4C.1>$

%evised: P0/*4 C .J>JJ2.1>$ C "4+4)

P0&*4 C .J$4J2.1>$ C "4(#-

P0C*4 C .J1$2.1>$ C "$-,,
d4
7vent Prior Conditional <oint %evised

P07
i
4

P0S7
i
4
P0S 7
i
4

P07
i
S4
/ ."J .8J .4JJ .4JJ2.8@"$C"(+4,
& .4$ .88 ."D>J ."D>J2.8@"$C"4*))
C .$ .D$ ."@$ ."@$2.8@"$C"(+&-
P0S4C.8@"$
4." =et T C lawn treated by Tri)state
? C lawn treated by ?reen Chem
3 C very healthy lawn
A C not very healthy lawn
P0T4 C .@ P0?4 C .8 P03T4 C ."J P03?4 C .J
7vent Prior Conditional <oint %evised

P07
i
4

P037
i
4
P03 7
i
4

P07
i
34
/ .@ ."J .1> .1>2.@C"+-4&
& .8 .J .J$> .J$>2.@C"($*-
P034C.@

%evised: P0T34 C .1>2.@ C "+-4&

P0?34 C .J$>2.@ C "($*-

4."" =et T C training
Chapter 4: Probability 1>
=et # C small
P0T4 C .>$
P0#T4 C .18 P0A#T4 C .8
P0#AT4 C .@$ P0A#AT4 C .$
7vent Prior Conditional <oint %evised

P07
i
4

P0A#7
i
4
P0A# 7
i
4

P07
i
A#4
T .>$ .8 .$""J .$""J2.>J$C",*-$
AT ."$ .$ .J8@$ .J8@$2.>J$C.141J
P0A#4C"#($*
4."4
3ariable 1
B 7
/ 1J J
3ariable & 1$ $
C "J 1$
$$ 4J D$

a4 P074 C 4J2D$ C "4(&$*

b4 P0& B4 C P0&4 L P0B4 ) P0& B4

C J2D$ L $$2D$ ) 1$2D$ C >J2D$ C "#)&*,

c4 P0/ 74 C J2D$ C "(&$*)

d4 P0&74 C $24J C "&(*$
e4 P0/ &4 C P0/4 L P0&4 C "J2D$ L J2D$ C
$J2D$ C "*(#)(

f4 P0& C4 C .JJJJ 0mutually e-clusive4

g4 P0BC4 C "J24$ C "####+
h4 P0/&4C P0/ &4 C .JJJJ C "$$$$ 01t1ally e64l17i8e
P0&4 J2D$
Chapter 4: Probability 1@
i4 P0/4 C P0/B4QQ
"J2D$ C 1J2D$ QQ
."1$@D .1818
Ao, 3ariables 1 and are not independent.
4."$
B 7 ; ?
/ " D @ 1 "1
& 8 4 > 4
C 1J $ " @ $
1 18 1> " @8

a4 P0; /4 C @2@8 C "$,-+4
b4 P0/&4 C P0/ &4 C .JJJJ C .JJJJ
P0&4 2@8
c4 P0&4 C 2@8 C "(,($*
d4 P07 ;4 C "$$$$ !1t1ally E64l17i8e

e4 P0B&4 C 82 C ")#)#4

f4 P0&B4 C 821 C "),$-*
g4 P0B C4 C 12@8 L $2@8 T 1J2@8 C ">2@8 C "4#&*

h4 P0;4 C 1>2@8 C "($*&)
4.">
/ge0years4
U"$ "$)44 4$)$4 $$)>4 V>$
?ender 1ale .11 .J .1D .1 .1> .@8
;emale .J@ .J8 .J4 .J .J1 .
.18 .8 ." .14 .1@ 1.JJ

a4 P0"$)444 C "(,
b4 P0,oman 4$)$44 C "$4
Chapter 4: Probability 18
c4 P01an "$)444 C P01an4 L P0"$)444 ) P01an "$)444 C .@8 L .8 ) .J C "
,#
d4 P0U"$ $$)>44 C P0U"$4 L P0$$)>44 C .18 L .14 C ")(
e4 P0,oman4$)$44 C P0,oman 4$)$442P04$)$44 C .J42."C "&+)-
f4 P0A, A $$)>44 C .11 L .J L .1D L .1> C "##
4."@ =et T C thoroughness
=et S C 6nowledge
P0T4 C .@8 P0S4 C .4J P0T S4 C .@
a4 P0T S4 C P0T4 L P0S4 ) P0T S4 C
.@8 L .4J ) .@ C "-&
b4 P0AT AS4 C 1 ) P0T S4 C 1 ) .D1 C "$-
c4 P0ST4 C P0S T42P0T4 C .@2.@8 C ")4#(
d4 P0AT S4 C P0AT4 ) P0AT AS4
but P0AT4 C 1 ) P0T4 C .
P0AT S4 C . ) .JD C "&)
4."8 =et % C retirement
=et = C life insurance
P0%4 C .4 P0=4 C .>1 P0% =4 C .""
a4 P0%=4 C P0% =42P0=4 C .""2.>1 C "*4&$
b4 P0=%4 C P0% =42P0%4 C .""2.4 C "+,*+
c4 P0= %4 C P0=4 L P0%4 ) P0= %4 C
.>1 L .4 ) ."" C "+$
d4 P0% A=4 C P0%4 ) P0% =4 C .4 ) ."" C .$-
e4 P0A=%4 C P0A= %42P0%4 C .JD2.4 C .(&4)
4."D P0T4 C .1> P0T,4 C .J P0TA74 C .1@
P0,4 C .1 P0A74 C .J
a4 P0, T4 C P0,4 P0T,4 C 0.140.J4 C "$4(
b4 P0A7 T4 C P0A74 P0TA74 C 0.J40.1@4 C "$)4
c4 P0,T4 C P0, T42P0T4 C 0.J4420.1>4 C "(#(*
d4 P0A7AT4 C P0A7 AT42P0AT4 C FP0A74 P0ATA74G2P0AT4
but P0ATA74 C 1 ) P0TA74 C 1 ) .1@ C .8" and
Chapter 4: Probability 1D
P0AT4 C 1 ) P0T4 C 1 ) .1> C .84
Therefore, P0A7AT4 C FP0A74 P0ATA74G2P0AT4 C

F0.J40.8"4G20.844 C "&-+#
e4 P0not , not A7T4 C P0not , not A7 T42 P0T4
but P0not , not A7 T4 C
.1> ) P0, T4 ) P0A7 T4 C .1> ) .J4 ) .J"4 C .J84
P0not , not A7 T42 P0T4 C 0.J84420.1>4 C "*(*
4.4J =et 1 C 1astercard / C /merican 7-press 3 C 3isa
P014 C ."J P0/4 C .J P034 C .$
P01 /4 C .J8 P03 14 C .1 P0/ 34 C .J>

a4 P03 /4 C P034 L P0/4 ) P03 /4

C .$ L .J ) .J> C ")-
b4 P0314 C P03 142P014 C .12."J C "4$
c4 P0134 C P03 142P034 C .12.$ C "4,

d4 P034 C P0314QQ
.$ .4J

Possession of 3isa is not independent of
possession of 1astercard
e4 /merican 7-press is not mutually e-clusive of 3isa
because P0/ 34 .JJJJ

4.41
=et # C believe ## secure
A C don't believe ## will be secure
U4$ C under 4$ years old
V4$ C 4$ or more years old
P0A4 C .$1
Therefore, P0#4 C 1 ) .$1 C .4D
P0#V4$4 C .@J
Therefore, P0AV4$4 C 1 ) P0#V4$4 C 1 ) .@J C ."J
Chapter 4: Probability J
P0U4$4 C .$@

a4 P0V4$4 C 1 ) P0U4$4 C 1 ) .$@ C "4)
b4 P0V4$ #4 C P0V4$4 P0#V4$4 C 0.$@40.@J4 C ."J1
P0U4$ #4 C P0#4 ) P0V4$ #4 C .4D ) ."J1 C "&,-
c4 P0V4$#4 C P0V4$ #42P0#4 C P0V4$4 P0#V4$42P0#4 C
0.4"40.@J42.4D C "#&4)
d4 0U4$ A4 C P0U4$4 L P0A4 ) P0U4$ A4 C
but P0U4$ A4 C P0U4$4 ) P0U4$ #4 C
.$@ ) .18D C ."81
so P0U4$ A4 C .$@ L .$1 ) ."81 C "#--
Probability 1atri- #olution for Problem 4.41:
# A
U4$ .18D ."81 .$@
V4$ ."J1 .1D .4"
.4DJ .$1J 1.JJ

4.4 =et 1 C e-pect to save more
% C e-pect to reduce debt
A1 C don't e-pect to save more
A% C don't e-pect to reduce debt
P014 C .4" P0%4 C .4$ P0%14 C .81
P0A%14 C 1)P0%14 C 1 ) .81 C .1D
P0A14 C 1 ) P014 C 1 ) .4" C .$@
P0A%4 C 1 ) P0%4 C 1 ) .4$ C .$$

a4 P01 %4 C P014 P0%14 C 0.4"40.814 C ")4,)
b4 P01 %4 C P014 L P0%4 ) P01 %4

C .4" L .4$ ) ."48" C "*)&+

c4 P0neither save nor reduce debt4 C
1 ) P01 %4 C 1 ) .$"1@ C "4#,)
d4 P01 A%4 C P014 P0A%14 C 0.4"40.1D4 C "$,&+
Probability matri- for problem 4.4:

Chapter 4: Probability 1
%educe
Hes Ao
#ave
Hes ."48" .J81@ .4"
Ao .1J1@ .4>8" .$@
.4$JJ .$$JJ 1.JJ

4.4" =et % C read
=et & C chec6ed in the with boss
P0%4 C .4J P0&4 C ."4 P0&%4 C .@8
a4 P0& %4 C P0%4 P0&%4 C 0.4J40.@84 C ")&(
b4 P0A% A&4 C 1 ) P0% &4
but P0% &4 C P0%4 L P0&4 ) P0% &4 C
.4J L."4 ) ."1 C .48
P0A% A&4 C 1 ) .48 C "*+(
c4 P0%&4 C P0% &42P0&4 C 0."1420."44 C "-&+#
d4 P0A&%4 C 1 ) P0&%4 C 1 ) .@8 C "((
e4 P0A&A%4 C P0A& A%42P0A%4
but P0A%4 C 1 ) P0%4 C 1 ) .4J C .>J
P0A&A%4 C .$@2.>J C "-*))
f4 Probability matri- for problem 4.4":

& A&
% ."1 .J88 .4J
A% .J8 .$@ .>J
."4J .>>J 1.JJ
4.44
=et: B C denial
* C inappropriate
C C customer
Chapter 4: Probability
P C payment dispute
# C specialty
? C delays getting care
% C prescription drugs
P0B4 C .1@ P0*4 C .14 P0C4 C .14 P0P4 C .11
P0#4 C .1J P0?4 C .J8 P0%4 C .J@
a4 P0P #4 C P0P4 L P0#4 C .11 L .1J C "(&
b4 P0% C4 C .$$$$ 0mutually e-clusive4
c4 P0*#4 C P0* #42P0#4 C .JJJJ2.1J C .$$$$
d4 P0A? AP4 C 1 ) P0? P4 C 1 ) OP0?4 L P0P4P C
1 T O.J8 L .11P C 1 ) .1D C ",&
4.4$
=et % C retention
P C process
P0%4 C .$> P0P %4 C ."> P0%P4 C .DJ
a4 P0% AP4 C P0%4 ) P0P %4 C .$> ) ."> C .($
b4 P0P%4 C P0P %42P0%4 C .">2.$> C .#4(-
c4 P0P4 C QQ
P0%P4 C P0% P42P0P4
so P0P4 C P0% P42P0%P4 C .">2.DJ C .4$
d4 P0% P4 C P0%4 L P0P4 ) P0% P4 C
.$> L .4J ) ."> C .#$
e4 P0A% AP4 C 1 ) P0% P4 C 1 ) .>J C .4$
f4 P0%AP4 C P0% AP42P0AP4
but P0AP4 C 1 ) P0P4 C 1 ) .4J C .>J
P0%AP4 C .J2.>J C .))
4.4> =et 1 C mail
# C sales
P014 C ."8 P01 #4 C .JJJJ P0A1 A#4 C .41
a4 P01 A#4 C P014 ) P01 #4 C ."8 ) .JJ C .),
b4 P0#4:
P01 #4 C 1 ) P0A1 A#4 C 1 ) .41 C .$D
P01 #4 C P014 L P0#4
Chapter 4: Probability "
Therefore, P0#4 C P01 #4 ) P014 C .$D ) ."8 C .(&
c4 P0#14 C P0# 142P014 C .JJ2."8 C .$$
d4 P0A1A#4 C P0A1 A#42P0A#4 C .412.@D C .*&-$
where: P0A#4 C 1 ) P0#4 C 1 ) .1 C .@D
4.4@ =et # C #arabia
T C Tran
< C <ac6son
& C blood test
P0#4 C .41 P0T4 C ." P0<4 C .@
P0& #4 C .J$ P0& T4 C .J8 P0& <4 C .J>
7vent Prior Conditional <oint %evised

P07
i
4

P0&7
i
4
P0& 7
i
4

P0&
i
A#4
# .41 .J$ .JJ$ ")(-
T ." .J8 .J$> .411
< .@ .J> .J1> .>J
P0&4C.J>"
4.48 =et % C regulations
T C ta- burden
P0%4 C ."J P0T4 C ."$ P0T%4 C .@1
a4 P0% T4 C P0%4 P0T%4 C 0."J40.@14 C .(&)$
b4 P0% T4 C P0%4 L P0T4 ) P0% T4 C
."J L ."$ ) .1"J C .4)+$
c4 P0% T4 ) P0% T4 C .4"@J ) .1"J C .((4$
d4 P0%T4 C P0% T42P0T4 C .1"J2."$ C .#$,#
e4 P0A%T4 C 1 ) P0%T4 C 1 ) .>J8> C .)-&4
f4 P0A%AT4 C P0A% AT42P0AT4 C O1 ) P0% T4P2P0AT4 C
01 ) .4"@J42.>$ C .,##(
4.4D

7vent Prior Conditional <oint %evised
Chapter 4: Probability 4

P07
i
4

P0A#7
i
4
P0A# 7
i
4

P07
i
A#4
#oup .>J .@" .4"8J ",4*#
&rea6fast
1eats ."$ .1@ .J$D$ "&&4-
.ot Bogs .J$ .41 .JJ$ "$)-#
.$18J
4.$J =et ?. C ?ood health
.1 C .appy marriage
;? C ;aith in ?od

P0?.4 C .D P0.14 C .1 P0;?4 C .4J
a4 P0.1 ;?4 C P0.14 L P0;?4 ) P0.1 ;?4
but P0.1 ;?4 C .JJJJ
P0.1 ;?4 C P0.14 L P0;?4 C .1 L .4J C "#&

b4 P0.1 ;? ?.4 C P0.14 L P0;?4 L P0?.4 C

.D L .1 L .4J C "-$$$
c4 P0;? ?.4 C "$$$$
The categories are mutually e-clusive.
The respondent could not select more than one
answer.
d4 P0neither ;? nor ?. nor .14 C
1 ) P0.1 ;? ?.4 C 1 ) .DJJJ C "&$$$