A GEOSTATISTICAL APPROACH TO RESOURCE EVALUATION OF KALTA IRON ORE DEPOSIT, SUNDERGARH DISTRICT, ORISSA by B.C. Sarkar and Indranil Roy. Jour. Geol. Soc. India, v.65(5), pp.553-561. Shakeel Ahmed, National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad 500 007; Email: shakeelahmed@ ngri.res.in; comments: At the outset I must congratulate the authors of the article and the Journal of the Geological Society of India, for publishing the article in geostatistics which is the state of art technology in estimation methods. 1. Case histories are a must as they alone prove the efficacy of a method and make a method/model developed by the theoreticians, acceptable by the practitioners. In fact, not many articles on the practical geostatistics and on case histories of Indian mineral deposits, are forthcoming. Hence the authors deserve praise for their attempt to model Kalta iron ore deposit geostatistically. 2. The authors have successfully fitted with three parameters, log-normal distribution fit (p.560). Then, why they could not have adopted log-normal kriging, requires to be elaborated, as the same is not clear in the text. After all, if the grades are distributed log- normally, log-normal kriging is better estimator than ordinary kriging. 3. It is stated (p.560) that Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP) estimated by polygonal and cross-sectional methods an indicated reserve of 72.13 million tonnes. How many blocks of size 50 m x 50 m x 50 m, estimated (taking a cut-off grade of 57% Fe) which were estimated as waste i.e. below 57% of Fe, have been estimated as ore i.e. the estimates are greater than 57% Fe due to kriging, by you? 4. It is stated (p.560) that the computed marginal increase in tonnage may be due to precise overlying of blocks on each of the level plans that considers the marginal ores. This statement is not clear and requires clarification. 5. It is stated that in Kalta there are many ore types. By what precise method of calculation, the average specific gravity of 4.21 has been arrived at? 6. It is stated (p.560) that the ore inventory and associated grade tonnage relations can be further refined by using a map of variation in specific gravity, which itself can be considered as a regional variable. Normally, each ore is assigned a particular specific gravity, as the variation of specific gravity in the same ore type is more or less constant. Alternatively, even if variation is there, it is negligible. Whereas the grade of the variables like Fe vary even in the same ore types. Therefore, the density variation can be considered more as a mosaic rather than a regionalized variable in a strict sense. 7. The authors have drawan grade tonnage curves (Fig.6, p.560) based on the kriged estimates of blocks of size 50 m x 50 m x 10 m. There are two types of curves namely (i) cut-off grade (%Fe) vs tonnage of ore and (ii) cut-off grade (%Fe) vs average grade (%Fe) in the diagram. The second diagram is also called grade- mean curve. The authors have drawn it for one particular bench (715 mRL). For drawing curve of local recoverable reserves, disjunctive kriging (DK), which is also a non-linear geostatistical method is better suited. The technique of DK can be used both for kriging block by block and also calculate the recoverable reserves bench by bench. Murthy (1989) applied DK technique for an Indian iron ore deposit. I presume that the authors are aware of this. 8. It is very well known that each block estimate is 542 DISCUSSION JOUR.GEOL.SOC.INDIA, VOL.67, APRIL 2006 associated with an error. This is called the effect of information. Therefore drawing of the grade tonnage curves based on block kriged estimates are not correct. Matheron (1978, 1983) developed an exclusive methodology called non-linear geostatistics. This is called the support effect. In fact, change of support, developed by Matheron (1978) is the greatest contribution to geostatistics, which classical statistical methods cannot give. Rivoirard (1994), Subrahmanyam and Pandalai (2000), dealt with these aspects. Practical examples of non-linear geostatistical methods on Indian ores were given by Murthy (1993, 1994, 1997). Surprisingly there was not a single reference to non- linear geostatistical methods in the article. It is presumed that the authors are conversant with non- linear geostatistical methods. I presume that, the authors are aware that, be it linear geostatistics, non-linear geostatistics or non-stationary geostatistics, the ideas belong to Matheron. In their references, there was not a mention of even a single reference of Matheron, who is the father of geostatistics. 9. For drawing the grade tonnage curves for the blocks, the steps involved are: (i) taking the original data, (ii) regularizing the semi-punctual data over the bench height, (iii) anamorphose the data and calculating the anamorphose function, (iv) the inverse of the cumulative histogram gives the grade tonnage curves valid for semi-punctual samples over the bench height, (v) correction for change of support is made on the anamorphose function for the required block size, (vi) the inverse histogram of different block sizes, the grade tonnage curves could be got. This is explained in Murthy (1993). 10. Readers are referred to Figs.1 and 2 of Murthy (1993), which present cut-off grade vs mean recovered grade in respect of Fe and SiO2, respectively of Bailadila 11-C deposit. There are a total of five grade tonnage curves based on experimental sample values which are nothing but regularized semi-punctual samples, kriged values of 100 m x 100 m x 12 m blocks, curves with change of support using non-linear geostatistical techniques developed by Matheron (1978). The block size are taken namely (i) 100 m x 100 m x 12 m, (ii) 25 m x 25 m x 12 m and (iii) 5 m x 2 m x 12 m. One can clearly see the departure of the curves of kriged values from the change of support for the blocks of the same size. The conclusion is grade tonnage curves based on kriged values give distorted picture of the grade distributions and as such, curves should not be drawn on kriged values. 11. Similarly, grade tonnage curves based on conditional block simulations, present the true picture, because the very purpose of simulation is to get the same histogram and variogram for a give block size. In literature several examples are available where the technique of conditional block simulation is applied. As an Indian example Kannan et al. (1993), may be cited. 12. One of the basic deficiencies in this paper is that all references of previous workers in respect of application of geostatistical methods to the iron ore deposits of India are not cited. 13. Nevertheless, the authors deserve praise for their sincere effort in applying the state of art technology to Indian deposits. B.C. Sarkar and Indranil Roy, Indian School of Mines, Dhanbad. Email: bhabesh_sarkar2003@yahoo.co.in; reply: Our pointwise replies to the comments are as follows: 1. No reply is required. 2. Reasons for applying ordinary kriging for estimation of block values instead of lognormal kriging are cited in the paper on p.559 under the section Block Kriging lines 3 to 7. References of Champigny and Armstrong (1988) and David (1988) clearly state the reasons. For the sake of clarification, these are explicitly given below: (i) David (1988) in his book Handbook of Applied Advanced Geostatistical Ore Reserve Estimation, p.49 states Circumstances of non-stationarity may render estimation of the parameters of a lognormal model extremely difficult. Hence, one may use the semi-variogram model that appears to be the best for deriving the parameters of a model. (ii) Champigny and Armstrong (1988) in their paper on Estimation of Fault-controlled Deposit had discussed on modelling of a gold deposit of epithermal type (3 rd International Geostatistics Congress, Avignon, Sept.5-9, 1988, pp. 311-322). They state Lognormal kriging was not considered in the modelling although values conformed to a lognormal distribution because it requires second order stationarity of log e (Xj) values and not just local stationarity. 3. The polygonal or cross-sectional block size vary according to the notion of half way influence between two sample points, while in kriging, the choice of uniform block of 50 m x 50 m x 10 m size was considered based on the open-cast iron ore mining DISCUSSION 543 JOUR.GEOL.SOC.INDIA, VOL.67, APRIL 2006 practices at Kalta. Because of these reasons, one to one comparison of kriged blocks versus polygonal or cross-sectional blocks in terms of ore and waste is never possible owing to the difference in the block resolution. However, such comparison on an application of a cut-off grade is possible by plotting the estimated block values versus the actual block values of same size (obtained by blast hole drilling). 4. A network of blocks of dimensions 50 m x 50 m x 10 m was superimposed on the ore boundaries delineated on each level in a manner so that blocks falling within the ore boundaries were considered for kriging while the ones outside the ore boundaries were not considered. The peripheral blocks are more prone to misclassification as ore or waste. Smaller the size of a block, better would be the precision of laying the blocks within the ore boundaries. If the blocks are of larger dimensions (as in the case of polygonal or cross- sectional blocks), there will be cases of certain volume proportion of non-ore being included in peripheral ore blocks as well as certain volume proportion of ore being included in peripheral waste blocks. The peripheral ore blocks with estimated value just equalling the cut-off grade are called marginal ores. If a waste block of larger dimension is split into a number of small blocks (equaling the size of kriged blocks), invariably some small blocks within the larger waste block will contain full ore. Similarly, a larger ore block if split into smaller blocks, some small blocks within the bigger block will contain full non- ore. Such phenomena would change the estimated tonnage of ore. In the case of Kalta iron ore deposit, marginal increase in tonnage may be due to marginal proportion of such peripheral small blocks included as full ore. This is the case with any block modelling technique. 5. The value of average specific gravity as 4.21 was provided by Kalta mine and the same has been adopted in the present geostatistical modelling exercise. 6. At the time of field data collection from Ka1ta mine, the second author of the paper had observed that there exists a variation in the values of specific gravity, even within the same ore types. Such variation in specific gravity values is one cause for variation in tonnage per block and this should not be ignored. 7. Every estimation technique has its merits and demerits. Disjunctive Kriging has certain inconsistencies in the computation of local reserves (Verly, G., 1983, The Multigaussian Approach and its Applications to the Estimation of Local Recoveries, Math. Geol., v.15, no.2, pp.259-286), viz. (i) recovered tonnage greater than 100%; (ii) negative recovered tonnage and/or quantity of metal; (iii) non-decreasing recovered tonnage and/or quantity of metal with increasing cut-off grades; and (iv) negative spike at the origin. One important aspect of cross validating the estimates arrived at by employing a chosen estimation technique is the Conditional Unbiasedness. This has been discussed under the Block Kriging section (p.559 of our paper, 2nd para). If a specific author (Murthy, 1989) as cited by Dr. Shakeel Ahmed in his comment applies a particular estimation technique for a case study, it is not necessary that other authors have also to apply the same technique. Sarkar, B.C. (1993) in the Proc. ICCAMI 93, MGMI, Madras (pp.59-61) had discussed Advances in the Techniques of Ore body Modelling, highlighting the techniques of linear, non-linear and non-parametric kriging. The paper is in the same ICCAMI 93 Proceedings in which Murthy, P.S.N (1993) provided A Note on the Application of Non-linear Geostatistical Methods in the Estimation of Mineral Deposits on pages 38-44. The comments point to a single issue, i.e. deriving grade-tonnage curves. Different authors have applied different methods that can be grouped as: (i) Grade-tonnage curves derived from a histogram of sample grades; (ii) Grade-tonnage curves derived from a continuous distribution representing sample grades; (iii) Grade-tonnage curves derived from local block estimates; (iv) Grade-tonnage curves by multiple indicator kriging; (v) Grade-tonnage curves based on conditional block simulation. Virtually, all these methods of deriving grade- tonnage curves contain some error. In the present modeling study, the grade-tonnage curves have been derived from local block estimates. 12. The paper has been thoroughly reviewed by two learned referees. The references cited in the paper sufficiently reflect the theory and methodology adopted in the present case study. While the individuals comment on citing references in a paper is most welcome, the learned referees decision must be honoured. 8. to 11. 544 DISCUSSION JOUR.GEOL.SOC.INDIA, VOL.67, APRIL 2006 References MURTHY, P.S.N. and AHMED, S. (1994) Co-kriging under constrained conditions as applied to mineral deposits. In: A.G. Fabbri and J.J. Royer (Eds.), 3 rd CODATA Conference on Geomathematics and Geostatistics. Sci. de la Terre, Ser. Inf., Nancy, 1994, 32, pp.63-79. MURTHY, P.S.N. (1997) Selectivity studies on the multi-variables under constraint in an Indian iron ore deposit. In: E.Y. Baafi and N.A. Schofield (Eds.), Geostatistics Wollongong 96. Kewer Academic Publ., v.2, pp.851-863. PANDALAI, H.S. (1987) Conditional simulation as a basis for simulation of mining operations for grade control A case study. Jour. 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